Quarterback
When Josh McDaniels came to the Raiders, he and the new front office gave Derek Carr a shot, giving him a “3-year, 121.5 million” extension that effectively just gave him a raise in what would have been the final year of his previous deal in 2022 from 19.8 million to a fully guaranteed 25 million, without guaranteeing any of the remaining 116.3 million that would be due from 2023-2025. The Raiders essentially paid a few million dollars to see if Carr could prove to be worth a top of the market contract in McDaniels’ offense and, if he didn’t, the Raiders would plan on moving on from the player who had started for them since his rookie season in 2014.
Instead of proving he was worth that contract, Carr actually had one of the worst seasons of his career, completing 60.8% of his passes for an average of 7.02 YPA, 24 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions, good for a QB rating of just 86.3, worst since his rookie season, as was his 66.6 PFF grade. That made the Raiders’ decision easy and, when they fell out of the post-season race with two weeks left in the season, the Raiders shut down Carr to avoid him getting hurt and not being able to pass a physical, which would have guaranteed his 2023 salary. Backup Jarrett Stidham started the final two games of the season, the Raiders finished at 6-11 and ranked 26th in DVOA, and Carr was let go early in the off-season when the Raiders couldn’t find a suitable trade partner.
With Carr gone, there were a few routes the Raiders could have gone to replace him. They could have used their 7th overall pick to draft or trade up for a quarterback and build around a young, cost controlled quarterback long-term. They could have brought back Jarrett Stidham on a cheap contract and paired him with another cheap contract as competition. Or they could have been aggressive going after veteran free agents on the open market, using all or most of the money they saved from releasing Carr to do so.
The Raiders chose the latter option, giving one of the top available veteran free agent quarterbacks Jimmy Garoppolo a 3-year, 72.75 million dollar deal that essentially guarantees him 48.5 million over the next two seasons, or 36 million guaranteed over one year. Garoppolo has completed 67.6% of his passes for an average of 8.28 YPA, 87 touchdowns, and 42 interceptions, giving him a 99.6 career QB rating is better than Carr’s (91.8) and significantly better than what Carr did in 2022, but Garoppolo played with a lot more talent around him with the 49ers than Carr did with the Raiders for the most part and Garoppolo been a lot less durable, missing 31 games over the past five seasons since becoming a starter in San Francisco. He’s probably not a downgrade from Carr and he is noticeably cheaper, but he’ll probably be significantly less available as well.
Availability is actually already a question even before Garoppolo’s tenure in Las Vegas even begins, as Garoppolo had foot surgery early in the off-season and has language in his contract that allows the Raiders to void any guarantees if he can’t pass a physical by week one. It doesn’t sound like there’s a real possibility that will happen, but it would be a disaster for both parties if that happened, especially with the Raiders not having another good option on the roster.
The Raiders signed veteran backup Brian Hoyer in free agency and he has a career 82.9 QB rating and 40 career starts in 14 seasons in the league, but he’s also going into his age 38 season and has thrown just 41 passes over the past three seasons, mostly struggling, so he’s an underwhelming backup option at this stage of his career and would almost definitely struggle in the somewhat likely scenario they he ends up having to fill in for Garoppolo for one reason or another.
The Raiders also used a 4th round pick on Purdue’s Aidan O’Connell as a long-term developmental option and there’s a chance he could wind up as the primary backup as a rookie if he has a good training camp and pre-season, but, most likely, he will be the 3rd quarterback and, like Hoyer, he would almost definitely struggle if forced into significant action in 2023. This isn’t a bad quarterback room, but there are reasons for concern.
Grade: B-
Receiving Corps
The Raiders’ receiving corps was supposed to be a strength going into last season and there were still some obvious highlights, with Davante Adams ranking third in the league in receiving yards with a 100/1516/14 slash line, but slot receiver Hunter Renfrow and tight end Darren Waller were also supposed to be big parts of this offense and were limited to 36/330/2 in 10 games and 28/388/3 in 9 games respectively by injuries. In their absence, wide receiver Mack Hollins had to play much more than expected, finishing second on the team with a 57/690/4 slash line, but that came on 94 targets, good for just 7.34 yards per target, which is mediocre, as was his 1.14 yards per route run average.
Waller was traded to the Giants for a third round pick this off-season, saving the Raiders 11.825 million, but the Raiders should get a healthier year from Hunter Renfrow, they used the money they saved by trading Waller on signing free agent Jakobi Meyers to a 3-year, 33 million dollar deal to be an upgrade on Hollins, who left as a free agent this off-season, and they did a pretty good job reloading at tight end to replace Waller and Foster Moreau, who was their primary tight end in Waller’s absence last season and averaged 1.22 yards per route, before also departing this off-season. In free agency, the Raiders added veteran starting tight end Austin Hooper on a 1-year, 2.75 million dollar deal, took a flier on former first round pick OJ Howard, and then used the 35th pick in the draft on Michael Mayer, who was one of the best tight ends in the draft and could make an instant impact in year one.
Davante Adams will remain the top receiver regardless, as he’s one of the top receivers in the entire league. Over the past five seasons, he’s averaged a 106/1365/12 slash line per season, with his only season below 1300 yards coming in a year in which he was limited to 12 games by injury, while averaging 2.52 yards per route run combined and finishing above 83 on PFF in all five seasons, including an active three straight season streak over 90, a stretch in which he’s averaged 2.72 yards per route run. Adams is going into his age 31 season and will start to decline soon, as 31-year-old wide receivers are 35.7% less likely to surpass 1000 yards than 29-year-old wide receivers, a big drop off for a short period of time, but even at less than his best Adams should remain better than most wide receivers and the Raiders’ obvious #1 option, even with what should be a better group behind him this season.
Renfrow has obvious bounce back potential if healthy, averaging 1.92 yards per route run in his first three seasons in the league prior to last season, while averaging a 69/766/4 slash line per season on 92 targets as the primary slot option. He was limited to just 1.13 yards per route run last season, but that was in part due to injuries and he has a great chance to be significantly better than that next season. The one thing that could cap his production is how many options the Raiders now have in the passing game, but Renfrow should be pretty efficient with his opportunities, even if he plays fewer snaps and sees fewer targets than he did in his first three seasons in the league.
Jakobi Meyers will also have a big role, as evidenced by the significant contract the Raiders gave him to come over from the Patriots this off-season. Meyers went undrafted in 2019, but he has averaged 1.87 yards per route run in the past three seasons since becoming a starter in his second season in the league, leading to average 70/800/3 slash line on an average of 101 targets per season as the #1 receiver for the run heavy Patriots. Like Renfrow, Meyers could also see his production capped by the amount of other options the Raiders have, but he should be an above average #2/#3 wide receiver and gives the Raiders a very impressive trio with Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow, and Jakobi Meyers, assuming all of them can stay healthy.
The Raiders have pretty good depth at the wide receiver position too. Keenan Cole, DeAndre Carter, and Phillip Dorsett are veteran options with experience and career averages of 1.20, 1.14, and 1.10 yards per route run respectively, underwhelming, but not horrible for reserve options. On top of that, the Raiders used a third round pick on Cincinnati’s Tre Tucker in the draft and he could easily win a top reserve job and end up as high as 4th on the depth chart behind the Raiders’ talented top trio.
At tight end, the veteran Hooper and the rookie Mayer will compete for the starting role and both figure to have significant roles, regardless of who starts. Mayer obviously has more upside long-term and could make an immediate impact, but Hooper isn’t a bad stopgap starting option if needed and he would be an above average #2 tight end if relegated to that role, which his contract is in line with. Hooper has started 59 of 105 games played in seven seasons in the league, while finishing above 60 on PFF in all seven seasons, averaging a decent 1.39 yards per route run and holding up as a run blocker as well. Still only in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from him, solid, but unspectacular play in whatever role the Raiders need him in.
OJ Howard could also earn a role, but his contract only has 450K guaranteed, so he could just as easily not make the final roster. There’s a reason he could only get that much guaranteed money in free agency, as he has averaged just 1.03 yards per route run over the past two seasons, while finishing with overall grades of 49.0 and 56.2 on PFF. That’s a steep drop off for a player who averaged 1.73 yards per route run in his first four seasons in the league and who was a first round pick in 2017, but Howard has suffered multiple significant leg injuries in his career and they seem to have sapped his abilities.
Howard is still only in his age 29 season and theoretically could have some bounce back potential, another year removed from his most recent injury, but he probably won’t have much of an impact on this offense, in a deep receiving corps that was already pretty decent last year just because of Davante Adams and that now is much deeper than a year ago with Renfrow expected to return to health, Meyers being added, and Michael Mayer and Austin Hooper being decent replacements for Darren Waller, who also missed much of last season with injury. This is one of the best receiving corps in the NFL.
Grade: A
Running Backs
With a lack of consistent, healthy targets in the passing game behind Davante Adams, the Raiders used running back Josh Jacobs pretty heavily in the passing game, with Jacobs tying a career high in targets (64) and yards per route run (1.17) and setting a new career high in receiving yards (400). Jacobs also had the best year of his 4-year career on the ground, rushing for 1,653 yards and 12 touchdowns on 340 carries, good for an average of 4.86 YPC, all of which were career highs for Jacobs, who was PFF’s #1 ranked running back in rushing grade at 91.9.
Jacobs was a first round pick in 2019 and burst onto the scene with a big rookie year, rushing for 1,150 yards and 7 touchdowns on 242 carries (4.75 YPC) and receiving an 86.9 rushing grade from PFF, but he missed three games with injury, a trend that continued into his next two seasons in which he missed two each, and the injuries seemed to slow him down, limiting him to just 3.95 YPC and 21 touchdowns on 490 carries between 2020-2021, when he received reduced rushing grades of 79.4 and 81.5, leading to the Raiders declining his 5th year option for 2023, which would have guaranteed him 8.034 million. When Jacobs put up his career best year in 2022 after the option was declined, the Raiders were left with no real choice but to franchise tag Jacobs at a 10.091 million dollar salary.
Even the Raiders seem skeptical that Jacobs can continue producing like he did last season though, as they don’t seem in a rush to give him a top of the market long-term deal, and the history of running backs the year after high rushing totals suggests that Jacobs will have a hard time repeating last season’s performance. Of the last 35 rushing champions, just 6 have surpassed their rushing total the following season and only another 2 have come within 200 yards of their previous rushing total, with the other 28 all coming in at least 200 yards shorter a year later.
Jacobs’ chances of repeating last season’s performance seems to be even less when you consider that of those 8 exceptions, 4 were Emmitt Smith and Barry Sanders, arguably the two greatest running backs of the modern NFL. Even with those two big exceptions factored in, the previous 35 rushing champions averaged 22.6% fewer carries, 31.9% fewer yards, 33.3% fewer touchdowns, and a 12.0% lower YPC average the following season, going from an average slash line of 344/1693/14 to 266/1153/9 slash line, still a solid season, but not the highs they reached as rushing champion the year before. Factor in that Jacobs already has a history of injuries and inconsistency and it seems like there’s a very good chance Jacobs regresses at least somewhat this season, either by being less effective or missing time or both.
The Raiders don’t have a lot of running back depth, which was not something they needed last year when Jacobs played all 17 games and averaged 48.3 snaps per game and 23.1 touches per game, but it’s very possible he doesn’t quite reach any of those three numbers this season and, as a result, they would need more from their backups. Veteran Ameer Abdullah played the most snaps of any other running back on this team last season with 176, but he was only a passing down specialist, with all but seven of his snaps coming on passing plays and just four total carries on the season.
Abdullah still isn’t much of an option as a runner, with a 3.95 YPC average on 87 carries over the past 5 seasons as primarily a passing down specialist and special teamer, and he now heads into his age 30 season, but he could retain a small passing down role this year, as passing situations are a good opportunity to give a rest to Jacobs, who is a middling pass catcher at best, while Abdullah has fared pretty well in those situations in his career, with a 1.29 yards per route run average, including 1.57 last season.
With Abdullah barely getting any carries last season, the running back with the second most rushing yards this season was actually 4th round rookie Zamir White, albeit with just 70 yards on 17 carries. The Raiders didn’t trust White much as a rookie, especially in passing situations, but he could earn a bigger role in his second season in the league and become the reliable backup the Raiders need behind Jacobs. That’s not a guarantee though and the Raiders would still likely be in trouble if Jacobs missed extended time with injury. Having the league’s reigning rushing leader gives the Raiders a high upside at this position, but the history of reigning rushing leaders and the Raiders lack of proven depth behind him are a concerning situation.
Grade: A-
Offensive Line
The Raiders have good skill position talent around Jimmy Garoppolo, similar to his situation in San Francisco, where he was fairly effective, but one thing he doesn’t have with the Raiders that he had with the 49ers is a dominant offensive line. This group was actually better than expected a year ago though, with surprising performances from a couple players. The biggest surprise was right tackle Jeremaine Eluemunor, who made 17 starts and received a 75.3 grade from PFF in his 6th season in the league in 2022, after mostly being a mediocre reserve prior to last season, making just 14 starts in five seasons and finishing below 60 on PFF four times. It’s possible Eluemunor has permanently turned a corner and the former 5th round pick is still only in his age 29 season, but it seems more likely he’ll regress at least somewhat this season, even if he remains at least a decent starter.
Left guard Dylan Parham was also a bit of a surprise, although not on the same scale as Eluemanor. Still, Parham was only a third round pick and he was pretty decent with a 61.9 PFF grade while making all 17 starts as a rookie, so the Raiders have to be pretty happy with that, considering their issues at the position the year prior. Parham will likely remain at least a decent starter again in 2023 and he has the upside to develop into more long-term, even if he doesn’t necessarily take a step forward right away in year two.
The rest of this line was about as expected. Left tackle Kolton Miller continued his dominant play from the year prior, ranking 5th among offensive tackles on PFF with a 84.1 grade, after ranking 8th with a 84.0 grade in 2021. Miller looked like a bust as the 15th overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft when he had a 49.6 PFF grade as a rookie, but that increased to 65.0 in his second season in the league, 73.0 the year after that, and then into the 80s over the past two seasons. Still only in his age 28 season with only three starts missed in five seasons in the league, I see no reason to expect anything different from him in 2023.
Center Andre James continued his middling play from the year prior, finishing with a 62.8 PFF grade in 17 starts after a 64.1 PFF grade in 15 starts in 2021, in the first starting action of his career. The 2019 undrafted free agent probably doesn’t have much more upside, but he’s established himself as a reliable starter and I would expect him to remain that this season. Right guard Alex Bars, meanwhile, struggled with a 45.4 PFF grade in 14 starts, which also was to be expected, as Bars had made just 11 starts in three seasons in the league prior to last season and the former undrafted free agent had never finished above 60 on PFF even in limited action. He should be expected to continue struggling if he remains the starter in 2023.
The Raiders return all five starting offensive linemen from a year ago and not much is expected to change, but the one at least somewhat notable addition the Raiders made was adding experienced journeyman veteran Greg Van Roten, who will mostly likely be versatile depth on the interior, but who could theoretically take Bars’ job at right guard and be an upgrade, given how much Bars struggled a year ago and that Bars only received 1.5 million on a 1-year deal to re-sign as a free agent this off-season. Van Roten made 50 starts from 2018-2021 and received PFF grades in the 60s in all four seasons, but he slipped to a 57.6 PFF grade on just 354 snaps in 2022 and now heads into his age 33 season, so his days as a starting caliber player are behind him, even if he could still probably be better than Bars was a year ago, if given the opportunity.
Along with Van Roten on the interior, the Raiders also have Justin Herron and Brandon Parker as their top reserve options at tackle. Herron only played 17 snaps last season, but the 2020 6th round pick played 745 snaps (10 starts) in his first two seasons in the league prior to last season and wasn’t horrible, with PFF grades of 63.4 and 56.7. Parker, meanwhile, missed all of last season with injury, but the 2018 3rd round pick made 32 starts in his first four seasons in the league and, while he finished below 60 on PFF in all four seasons, he might not be a bad backup, assuming he’s over his injury from a year ago. This isn’t a great offensive line, but it’s not a bad one either.
Grade: B
Interior Defenders
While the Raiders’ offense was decent last season (17th in offensive DVOA) and could be better this season with what should be an improved receiving corps, the Raiders’ defense was a huge problem last season, ranking 31st in defensive DVOA. Defensive performance is much less predictive and predictable on a year-to-year basis than offensive performance and it’s much easier to improve a bad defense from one year to the next than it is to improve a bad offense, but the Raiders did very little to get more talented on this side of the ball this off-season and, while they could still be better than a year ago, it will probably mostly be by default, after being one of the worst defenses in the league a year ago.
At the interior defender position, the Raiders had just one player see any action and finish above 60 on PFF and that was Andrew Billings (76.4 PFF grade on 478 snaps), who was not retained this off-season. The Raiders actually didn’t retain most of this position group from a year ago, which, outside of Billings, isn’t a big loss because of how bad the rest of this group was, but their replacements are unlikely to be much better and no one in this group has the upside to be as good as Billings was a year ago, even if Billings was just a rotational player.
The Raiders bring back veterans Bilal Nichols and Jerry Tillery from a year ago and could give more playing time to second year players Neil Farrell and Matthew Butler, who played 158 snaps and 56 snaps as fourth and fifth round rookies respectively. The Raiders also used a 3rd round pick on Alabama’s Byron Young and took veteran fliers on Adam Butler and John Jenkins, who will also compete for roles, though they could just as easily be left off the final roster, after getting just 486K and 200K guaranteed on their contracts.
Nichols will probably end up leading this position group in snaps played again, after doing so with 801 a year ago. He has some bounce back potential, finishing with PFF grades of 75.3 and 61.3 on 618 snaps and 679 snaps respectively in the two seasons prior to last season, when he fell to 55.5 in the first season of a 2-year, 11 million dollar deal that he signed last off-season to come over from the Bears, who selected him in the 5th round of the 2018 NFL Draft.
It was actually mostly Nichols’ run defense that fell off in 2022, as he still managed 1.5 sacks, 9 hits, and a 6.5% pressure rate as a pass rusher, not that far off from the 8 sacks, 15 hits, and 8.8% pressure rate he had over the previous two seasons combined in 2020 and 2021. Still only going into his age 27 season, there’s a good chance Nichols run defense improves this season and, even if it happens to not, he’ll likely remain a solid pass rusher at the very least.
Tillery was even worse than Nichols overall last season and, unlike Nichols, he doesn’t have any real bounce back potential, having never finished with even a grade in the 50s on PFF in four seasons in the league. A bust of a first round pick by the Chargers in 2019, Tillery has a decent 6.7% pressure rate for his career, but that’s in part because he has lined up on the edge on occasion, where it is easier to pressure the quarterback from, and he has been consistently horrendous in run defense, leading to the Chargers cutting him loose midway through last season.
That’s when the Raiders decided to pick him up, playing him 258 snaps down the stretch in 8 games and watching him continue to struggle mightily with a 42.9 PFF grade during that stretch. He’s only in his age 27 season and may have theoretical untapped upside, which seems to be what the Raiders are betting on by giving him a 2-year, 6.6 million dollar deal to stay with them as a free agent this off-season, but he probably won’t even prove to be worth that relatively small contract. He’ll probably be a de facto starter, but only by default, due to the Raiders’ lack of other options.
Neil Farrell and Matthew Butler have some upside, but they didn’t show much as rookies, struggling mightily on very limited snap counts. Third round rookie Bryon Young also has potential, but enters the league pretty raw. Butler and Jenkins, meanwhile, are both underwhelming veteran options. Jenkins was a solid base package run stuffer in his prime, but he has a career pressure rate of just 5.5%, he’s never played more than 530 snaps in a season, and he’s slowed down in recent years, playing just 657 total snaps over the past three seasons combined and now going into his age 34 season. He might be able to play a little bit of a situational role, but he also might just not have anything left in the tank.
Butler, meanwhile, had a pressure rate of 6.8% and an average of 480 total snaps played per year in his first five seasons in the league from 2017-2021, but struggled mightily against the run, leading to him finishing in the 50s overall on PFF in all five seasons, and then he missed all of last season with injury. Butler is still relatively young in his age 29 season and could earn a situational role, but he would likely be underwhelming even in that role and, coming off of a lost season, he could just as easily wind up off the final roster, even in a very mediocre position group.
Grade: C-
Edge Defenders
By far the biggest bright spot on this defense a year ago was edge defender Maxx Crosby, who was PFF’s 4th ranked edge defender with a 90.1 grade on 1,082 snaps, most among edge defenders by a wide margin, with no one else having more than 953. He excelled against the run and totaled 12.5 sacks, 24 hits, and a 12.5% pressure rate as a pass rusher. It’s not the first time Crosby has done that either, finishing the 2021 season ranked 2nd among edge defenders on PFF with a 91.4 grade on 926 snaps (4th most snaps played among edge defenders), again excelling against the run and totaling 8 sacks, 21 hits, and a 16.9% pressure rate.
Crosby was a 4th round pick in 2019 and had decent sack totals in his first two seasons in the league too, with 17 sacks total, but his peripheral pass rush stats were not nearly as good with a 9.1% total pressure rate and he used to struggle against the run as well, leading to him finishing with PFF grades of just 65.4 and 57.8 in 2019 and 2020 respectively. However, he seems to have permanently turned a corner as a player and is still only going into his age 26 season, so he should remain one of the best edge defenders in the league again in 2023, even if he happens to not be quite as good as the past two seasons.
As well as Crosby played, the Raiders also got a disappointing season opposite Crosby from big free agent signing Chandler Jones, who they gave a 3-year, 51 million dollar deal to come over from the Cardinals. In 10 seasons prior to joining the Raiders, Jones had 107.5 sacks, 99 hits, and a 10.6% pressure rate in 139 games and eight finishes above 70 on PFF overall in ten seasons, after being selected in the first round by the Patriots in 2012, and the Raiders paid for that past production. However, in his first season in Las Vegas, Jones’ age caught up to him and he declined significantly. finishing with a 63.8 overall grade on PFF, including a career worst 60.4 pass rush grade, totalling just 4.5 sacks, 10 hits, and a 10.0% pressure rate.
Now Jones heads into his age 33 season and his best days are almost definitely behind him and, while he could bounce back a little bit from arguably the worst year of his career, he could also just as easily keep declining and become a liability for this defense. Preparing for a future without Jones, the Raiders used the 7th overall pick on Texas Tech‘s Tyree Wilson, a great choice because Wilson could have easily been a top-5 selection. He figures to have an immediate role as a rookie and has a good chance to make an impact right away. It won’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over their incumbent top edge defender Clelin Ferrell, who had a middling 63.8 PFF grade last season, and with Ferrell gone, Wilson has a good chance to exceed Ferrell’s snap count of 492 from last season, perhaps by a significant amount.
Maxx Crosby obviously handles a large workload well and should come off the field as little as possible, something he did last season when he missed just 43 total snaps, but Chandler Jones also played a pretty high snap count with 783 in 15 games and perhaps he would benefit from more regular rest as he ages, which is something Wilson can provide. Even if Jones can’t bounce back in a smaller role, this is still a very good edge defender trio, with Wilson possessing a high ceiling and especially with Maxx Crosby being one of the best edge defenders in the league.
With the top-3 that the Raiders have at the edge defender position, they don’t have much need for other depth, but they did add veteran journeyman Jordan Willis in free agency and he could have a deep reserve role, as could Malcolm Koonce, a 2021 3rd round pick who has only played 783 snaps in two seasons in the league, but who still has the upside to potentially take a step forward and play at least a deep reserve role in his third season in the league in 2023. Willis, meanwhile, was a 3rd round pick in 2017, but, between injury and ineffectiveness, he’s averaged just 187 snaps played per season over the past four seasons, with a max of 229 snaps in a season over that stretch and mostly middling play in that limited action. Neither Willis nor Koonce will be needed much barring injuries ahead of them on the depth chart, with one of the better top trios of edge defenders in the league.
Grade: A-
Linebackers
The Raiders top linebacker a year ago was Denzel Perryman, who had a 74.2 PFF grade, but injuries limited him to just 555 snaps in 12 games and he is no longer with the team, leaving behind a group that didn’t have a single player over 60 on PFF a year ago. Most of last year’s group is gone anyway, with the exceptions being Divine Deablo (463 snaps), an every down player who missed nine games with injury, and a pair of undrafted free agents from a year ago, Darien Butler, who only played 22 snaps as a rookie, and Luke Masterson, who got into at least some action with 344 snaps, but who struggled mightily with a 30.8 PFF grade.
The Raiders didn’t add much in the way of reinforcements though, only adding veteran free agent Robert Spillane, a situational player who has never exceeded 588 snaps played in a season, and 6th round rookie Amari Burney, who would likely struggle in a significant role as a rookie, so this is a pretty wide open position group and a very underwhelming one overall.
Deablo would seem to have the inside track to retaining the every down job he had before he got hurt last season and the 2021 3rd round pick wasn’t that bad in it, with a 58.4 PFF grade. He also had a 63.2 PFF grade on 297 snaps as a rookie and has the upside to take a step forward in his third season in the league in 2023, if he can stay healthy, though that’s far from a guarantee. He doesn’t have much competition for an every down role, even if he hasn’t yet come close to playing that kind of snap count.
Spillane will likely be the other starter, but, as I mentioned, he’s never played an every down role and, even in his limited roles, he’s been pretty underwhelming, with PFF grades of 66.3, 49.8, and 52.5 on snap counts of 379, 347, and 588 over the past three seasons respectively, the only three seasons of significant action in the 2018 undrafted free agent’s career. Spillane not being an every down player leaves playing time available for other linebackers behind him and Deablo, but obviously their options are limited, with no other remotely experienced players or even somewhat high draft picks at the position. This figures to be a position of particular weakness for the Raiders this season, even on an overall underwhelming defense.
Grade: C
Secondary
The Raiders got good cornerback play in 2021 with Casey Hayward and Nate Hobbs finishing the year with PFF grades of 76.0 and 79.1 respectively, but Hayward left as a free agent last off-season and Hobbs was a just 5th round rookie slot cornerback who played 55.8 snaps per game in 2021 couldn’t repeat that success in a larger role in his second season in the league in 2022, posting a PFF grade of 60.9 on 60.6 snaps per game. That regression was in part due to injuries and he missed six games in total, but it’s possible he’ll never develop into anything more than a slot cornerback and even on the slot he could be inconsistent, even if that’s clearly his highest upside spot.
The Raiders don’t seem to have the luxury to only use him on the slot though. Rock Ya-Sin was a starter a year ago too and, while he also missed six games with injury, he had a 65.7 PFF grade on 663 snaps and is no longer with the team. With Hobbs and Ya-Sin missing time, Amik Robertson led this cornerback group with 677 snaps played last season and he wasn’t bad with a 64.1 PFF grade, but the 2020 4th round pick is a one-year wonder even as a solid starter, struggling mightily in limited action early in his career, and has never been a season long starter, which is what the Raiders will need from him this season. Even if he holds up as a season long starter, he probably doesn’t have much upside beyond being a capable starter and he could easily end up struggling.
The Raiders added veterans Brandon Facyson, David Long, and Duke Shelley in free agency this off-season and they’ll be in the mix for roles in three cornerback sets with Hobbs and Robertson, but they are all underwhelming options. Facyson is returning to the Raiders, with whom he played 602 snaps in 2021, but he had a 51.7 PFF grade and then followed that up with a 56.2 PFF grade on 455 snaps in 2022, in the two most significant snap totals of the 2018 undrafted free agent’s career, so he would likely struggle if he ended up as a top-3 cornerback.
David Long was a 3rd round pick by the Rams in 2019, but he’s averaged just 257 snaps played per season in four seasons in the league, with a max of 517 snaps played in a season, and he hasn’t played well either, finishing below 60 on PFF in three of four seasons in the league, including a 53.6 grade on 287 snaps in 2022. Long is still only in his age 25 season and isn’t a bad flier considering his talent, his youth, and where he was drafted, but he would probably struggle if he landed a significant role. Shelley, meanwhile, was a 6th round pick in 2019 and has averaged just 339 snaps per season in the past three seasons, with a maximum of 409 snaps in a season. He has flashed some potential in limited action and is still only in his age 27 season, but he would be a projection to a starting role and also could end up struggling.
Sam Webb (327 snaps), Anthony Averett (278 snaps), and Tyler Hall (218 snaps) all saw action last season too in a banged up position group and Webb and Hall remain on the roster, but Webb went undrafted in 2022 and was mediocre in his limited rookie year role and, while Tyler Hall flashed potential, it came in very limited action and the 2020 undrafted free agent had only played 7 defensive snaps in his career prior to last season, so he’s very unproven. He could provide decent depth, but is unlikely to have a real role in this secondary, even with this group being very unsettled.
The Raiders also got much worse play from starting safety Trevon Moehrig in 2022 than they got from him in 2021, when he was a 2nd round rookie and impressed with a 72.5 PFF grade on 1,152 snaps, before falling to 54.1 on 906 snaps in 2022. Moehrig is still only going into his age 24 season and could easily bounce back or even have his best season yet in his third season in the league in 2023, but he also just as easily could continue struggling. The Raiders will need him to bounce back because their best safety from a year ago, Duron Harmon, who had a 72.3 PFF grade on 1,076 snaps, is no longer on the team and has been replaced by free agency Marcus Epps.
Epps was a 6th round pick in 2019 and flashed some potential on limited snap roles early in his career with PFF grades of 75.1 and 72.8 on snap counts of 365 and 505 in 2020 and 2021 respectively, but he couldn’t translate that into a full season starting role in 2022, making all 17 starts, but receiving just a 56.3 grade from PFF. Epps could be a little bit better this season and he’s still only in his age 27 season, but he could also just as easily continue struggling and he figures to be a downgrade from Harmon either way. They’ll need Moehrig to bounce back enough to offset that, otherwise safety could be a position of liability this season.
Epps is likely locked into a starting role, with the Raiders’ other options being Roderic Teamer, a 2019 undrafted free agent who has 858 career defensive snaps, Jaquan Johnson, a 2019 6th round pick who has played even less, with 428 career defensive snaps, and 5th round rookie Chris Smith out of Georgia, all of whom would almost definitely struggle if they were the season long starter, so Epps will likely remain the starter even if he struggles. Moehrig and Hobbs at least have some upside and could bounce back from sophomore slumps in 2022, but this is a pretty underwhelming secondary overall.
Grade: C+
Conclusion
The Raiders were a mediocre team a year ago, ranking 26th in DVOA, and it seems likely they will be one again this season. Jimmy Garoppolo could be an upgrade over Derek Carr under center and he’s been more effective statistically in his career, but he won’t be bringing San Francisco’s supporting cast with him to Las Vegas and he’s also likely to get hurt again at some point or another, forcing either mediocre veteran Brian Hoyer or inexperienced 4th round rookie Aidan O’Connell into significant action, which, even if the Raiders can manage to be in the playoff mix this season, would likely doom their chances of getting into the post-season.
Their receiving corps should be deeper than a year ago, but feature back Josh Jacobs is unlikely to be quite as good as a year ago, while their offensive line remains middling at best. Their defense could be better by default this season, after ranking 31st in defensive DVOA a year ago, but they still have a lot of problems on that side of the ball, so that should remain a big weakness for this team. This isn’t a horrible team, unless Garoppolo misses a big chunk of the season, but they’re likely to be a below average team and have a very tough road to even a wild card spot in the loaded AFC. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.
Prediction: 5-12, 4th in AFC West
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