Raiders

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 11 NFL Picks, Raiders, Texans, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (3-6) at Houston Texans (2-7)

One of the most powerful trends in betting is known as the six and six trend, meaning teams who finish with 6 wins or fewer are 25-69 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2002. There are two issues with this trend. One, it’s very rare (it only happened 7 times all last season, going 2-5 ATS). Two, it’s even rarer that a situation will come up in which you can confidently use the trend. The Eagles were 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland last year week 1 (they didn’t cover), but at the time there was no way to know that the Eagles would finish 6-10 or worse.

The Texans, however, sit at 2-7 and would need to go 5-2 or better in order to avoid finishing 6-10 or worse. I think we can safely put them in the six and six trend and they are favored by 7.5 points here. The Raiders covered in New York as 6 point underdogs last week, when the Giants were likely in the six and six situation. I think they have a good chance of doing the same here this week in Houston as 7.5 point underdogs. The Raiders are also in a good spot as road dogs off of a road loss. Teams are 97-57 ATS in this spot since 2008 and teams cover at about a 65% rate historically in this spot, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample.

The only reason this isn’t a bigger play is because I think the Texans are better than their record. They’ve just been killed by turnovers (-13) and return touchdowns (-7 touchdowns). They actually rank 12th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents, while the Raiders rank 28th, thanks largely to a slumping Terrelle Pryor. According to that statistic, this line should be around 8.5. I don’t think that’s accurate though. You can’t blindly follow that. The Texans aren’t the 12th best team in the NFL. Football Outsiders has them 29th in DVOA. I don’t think they’re that bad, but they don’t deserve to be favored by 7.5 points over anyone.

Houston Texans 20 Oakland Raiders 17

Pick against spread: Oakland +7.5

Confidence: Medium

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Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#29)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Raiders, Uncategorized

Last week: 29 (+0)

Record: 3-5

The wheels kind of fell off of this scrappy Raider team’s season last week as they allowed an NFL record tying 7 passing touchdowns to Nick Foles in a 49-20 loss. They are moving the chains at a mere 68% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents and defenses seem to have figured out Terrelle Pryor, who figures to be without Darren McFadden for the foreseeable future. Their home games remaining are all tough, Tennessee, Denver, Kansas City, and their road games aren’t much easier, as they face the Giants, Jets, Houston, San Diego, and Dallas. They might not win much more than a game going forward.

Week 9 Studs

LT Khalif Barnes

Week 9 Duds

QB Terrelle Pryor

LG Lucas Nix

RG Mike Brisiel

LE Jason Hunter

CB DJ Hayden

FS Brandian Ross

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Oakland Raiders at New York Giants: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Picks, Giants, Raiders, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (3-5) at New York Giants (2-6)

One of the most powerful trends in betting is known as the six and six trend, meaning teams who finish with 6 wins or fewer are 25-69 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2002. There are two issues with this trend. One, it’s very rare (it only happened 7 times all last season, going 2-5 ATS). Two, it’s even rarer that a situation will come up in which you can confidently use the trend. The Eagles were 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland last year week 1 (they didn’t cover), but there was at the time there was no way to know that the Eagles would finish 6-10 or worse.

The Giants, however, sit at 2-6 and would need to go 5-3 or better in order to avoid finishing 6-10 or worse. I think we can safely put them in the six and six trend. The Giants have been playing better football of late, winning their last 2, as a result of a predictably improved turnover margin. However, turnovers aren’t their only problem. They have 145 first downs to 46 punts (3.15 to 1), while their opponents have 175 first downs to 40 punts (4.375). Besides, beating the Vikings and Eagles isn’t exactly impressive. I’m not sold they’re back.

In terms of rate of moving the chains, which factors in turnovers and fourth down failures in addition to first downs and punts, the Giants are moving the chains at a 66% rate, as opposed to 75% for their opponents. That’s a differential that ranks 30th. The Raiders, meanwhile, rank 28th, moving the chains at a 68% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents. That suggests that the Giants should only be favored by a point instead of 7.5. I don’t know if that’s 100% accurate, but we’re definitely getting line value with the Raiders, before we even take into account the six and six trend.

The Raiders, meanwhile, are in a good spot as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional road underdogs. Teams are 89-66 ATS since 2002 in that spot and the Raiders go to Houston next week. This line has shifted from -5.5 to -7.5 in the past week after the Raiders big loss last week, shifting over the key numbers of 6 and 7. That’s significant and I think an overreaction. The Giants, meanwhile, usually don’t do well as big home favorites and don’t usually do well in the 2nd half of seasons. Since Tom Coughlin took over in 2004, they are 7-15 ATS as home favorites of 3.5 or more in week 9 or later. There’s no guarantee that will continue with the Giants off to their worst 8 game start of that time period, but it’s worth noting.

There are two reasons why this isn’t my Pick of the Week. One is that the Raiders are a West Coast team on the East Coast at 1 PM. The second is just the possibility that the Giants are about to rip off a long winning streak, as they are one to do, and prove they are not the same team they were earlier this season. However, I don’t think they will. For various reasons, including injury, they just don’t have a lot of talent. Injuries have thinned their secondary, running game, and offensive line. Their defensive line is still fine, but injuries have limited Jason Pierre-Paul to the point where he is no longer the impact player they need him to be. They are way too reliant on Eli Manning and the passing game, which is hurt by the lack of supporting cast, struggles by Hakeem Nicks, and just a general disconnect between Eli Manning and his receivers. It’s a high confidence play on the Raiders.

New York Giants 17 Oakland Raiders 16

Pick against spread: Oakland +7.5

Confidence: High

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Philadelphia Eagles at Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 9 NFL Picks, Eagles, Raiders, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (3-5) at Oakland Raiders (3-4)

The Raiders won a close home game against the Steelers as underdogs last week, winning 21-18, but they didn’t play that well last week. If it wasn’t for a breakdown on a fluke touchdown run by Terrelle Pryor (the longest in NFL history by a quarterback) and two missed field goals by the Steelers that easily could have been made, the Steelers might have won that game by 7-10 points. They had more first downs (20 to 13), fewer punts (8 to 7), and fewer turnovers (3 to 2). The Raiders are not nearly as good as their 3-4 record. They are moving the chains at a pathetic 67% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents, a differential that ranks 29th in the NFL. They have no business being favored here at home over a Philadelphia team that ranks 24th with a differential around -3%.

The Raiders also could be completely flat after last week. Teams are 34-56 ATS since 2002 off of a home win by 3 or fewer as underdogs, including 4-9 ATS as home favorites. If you go back to 1989 to get a better sample size, teams are 9-20 ATS as home favorites off of a close win as home underdogs. Going off of that, non-divisional home favorites are 61-84 ATS before being non-divisional road favorites and the Raiders go to New York this week to face the Giants. This is a complete trap game here for a Raider team that doesn’t deserve to be favorites in the first place.

There are two reasons why this isn’t a big play on the Eagles. The first is that they have to go to Green Bay next week and teams are 33-68 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. The second is I have no idea which Nick Foles is going to show up. Is he going to be the quarterback who completed 38 of 56 for 493 yards and 5 touchdowns in 6 quarters against the Giants and Buccaneers and looked like a potential franchise quarterback? Or is he going to be the quarterback who completed 11 of 29 for 80 yards against the Cowboys before getting hurt? The Eagles should be the right side, but I’m not confident.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Oakland Raiders 20 Upset Pick +125

Pick against spread: Philadelphia +2.5

Confidence: Low

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Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#29)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Raiders, Uncategorized

Last week: 30 (+1)

Record: 3-4

Aside from his NFL record 93-yard quarterback run, Terrelle Pryor struggled against the Steelers, who are one of the best defenses he’s faced this season, completing 10 of 19 for 92 yards and 2 interceptions. We know he can run, but his struggles in his last two games against the Chiefs’ and the Steelers’ defenses have to be concerning for the Raiders going forward. He’s still being evaluated as a franchise quarterback and I think the Raiders have other things to focus on other than the quarterback position this off-season so I think they should bring him back for his contract year in 2014, but his long-term future remains cloudy.

Week 8 Studs

LT Khalif Barnes

RE Lamarr Houston

ROLB Sio Moore

CB Mike Jenkins

Week 8 Duds

RB Darren McFadden

LG Lucas Nix

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 8 NFL Picks, Raiders, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-4) at Oakland Raiders (2-4)

The Steelers have been night and day better since the bye. The return of Le’Veon Bell and Heath Miller to full health, giving the Steelers a talented runner and a safety net receiver respectively, have obviously helped, but I also think they are playing better as other guys are playing up to their abilities. They are still -2% in terms of moving the chains differential on the season, as opposed to -6% for the Raiders, so this line at Pittsburgh -2.5 is a little bit high. However, over the past two weeks they have 33 first downs to 7 punts and 1 turnover (an 80% rate), as opposed to 37 first downs, 10 punts, and 2 turnovers for their opponents (a 76% rate).

This week, they will have to avoid a trap they’ve fallen into countless times in the Mike Tomlin era. They are 6-17 ATS and just 12-11 straight up as non-divisional road favorites since Tomlin took over in 2007. Of course, at 2-4, they might not overlook the Raiders like they otherwise would have in recent years when they were good. They covered as road favorites in New York against the Jets a few weeks ago, though they were 0-4 at the time and desperately needed a week. They were also coming directly off of a bye and road favorites cover at an incredible rate after a bye. It’s tough to know what kind of Steelers team will show this week, if they’ll play with urgency or if they’ll play down to the level of their competition after two wins. It’s tough to pick a side. I wish this line was 3 or higher though because I don’t feel comfortable taking the Raiders essentially straight up.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Oakland Raiders 16

Pick of the Week: Oakland +2.5

Confidence: None

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Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#30)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Raiders, Uncategorized

Last week: 30 (+0)

Record: 2-4

The Raiders faced a 4th and 48 in their loss to the Chiefs this week, which is, unofficially I believe, an NFL record. It was so bad that even a solid punt, 46 yards, didn’t reach the chains. Negative plays were a theme of the day for the Raiders, as they were sacked 10 times. Terrelle Pryor is to blame for much of it, probably more than the offensive line. He held the ball way too long (2.94 seconds per throw, 4th longest of quarterbacks this week) and had a ton of trouble reading the toughest blitz he’s faced thus far in his career, taking a sack on 38.5% of his pressured snaps (2nd highest in the NFL this week). Still, this offensive line is in shambles thanks to injuries and their lack of baseline talent. Pryor was pressured on 55.3% of his snaps.

Week 6 Studs

RE Lamarr Houston

ROLB Sio Moore

CB Tracy Porter

Week 6 Duds

QB Terrelle Pryor

LT Khalif Barnes

RT Tony Pashos

RG Mike Brisiel

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Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs: Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 6 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Raiders, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (2-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-0)

Before the season, the Raiders were expected to be an all-time bad team. That hasn’t happened, as they are 2-3 right now and credit Reggie McKenzie and Dennis Allen for building a passable team despite over 50 million in dead money on their cap. However, I think they’re a little overrated right now. They’re not a good football team. I circled 4 games I thought the Raiders could win before the season and so far they’ve both two of them (home games against the Titans and Eagles were the other two). The fact that they are 2-3 right now does not shock me. Terrelle Pryor has legitimately impressed me, but he gets his biggest defensive test of the season, by far, this week.

The Chiefs have allowed opponents to score 11.6 points per game this season and opponents are moving the chains at a 61% rate. For comparison, the Jaguars are averaging 10.2 points per game and moving the chains at a 59% rate. Basically, the Chiefs have made their average opponent look like the Jaguars offensively (and they embarrassed the Jaguars week 1, for what it’s worth). They haven’t had the toughest schedule, but both the Eagles and Cowboys are moving the chains at high rates this year and couldn’t do anything against the Chiefs. The Raiders aren’t exactly adding to their strength of schedule here and they have a very good chance to stifle them offensively.

That’s going to allow the Chiefs to execute their game plan offensively and they should have plenty of success avoiding turnovers and moving the chains against a Raiders defense that hasn’t been bad, but lacks much talent. I feel like this line is at least a couple points too low. It should be on the other side of 10, like it was before the Raiders’ “surprising” win over the Chargers. It’s not a big play, but the Chiefs should win this by multiple scores at home, on a day in which their fans will be attempting to bring Seattle’s crowd noise record. Kansas City is also my survivor pick.

Kansas City Chiefs 23 Oakland Raiders 9 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Kansas City -8

Confidence: Low

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Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#30)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Raiders, Uncategorized

Last week: 30 (+1)

I circled 4 games I thought the Raiders could win before the season and so far they’ve both two of them (home games against the Titans and Eagles were the other two). That being said, the Raiders are definitely better than I thought they’d be. Credit goes to Dennis Allen and Reggie McKenzie for assembling a passable roster with 50 million dollars of dead money on their cap.

Week 5 Studs

RG Mike Brisiel

DT Vance Walker

Week 5 Duds

LE Jason Hunter

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