Raiders

Oakland Raiders: Week 14 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 14 NFL Power Rankings, Raiders

Last week: 30 (-2)

Record: 3-9

Net points per drive: -0.9 (31st)

DVOA: -34.6% (31st)

Weighted DVOA: -34.9% (32nd)

Studs

C Stefen Wisniewski: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 56 pass block snaps, run blocked for 36 yards on 5 attempts

TE Brandon Myers: Caught 14 passes for 130 yards and a touchdown on 15 attempts on 50 pass snaps, 2.1 YAC per catch, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 4 pass block snaps

LE Lamarr Houston: 1 sack, 2 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 34 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

Duds

LT Jared Veldheer: Allowed 1 sack and 6 quarterback hurries on 56 pass block snaps, run blocked for -2 yards on 1 attempt

WR Juron Criner: Caught 4 passes for 26 yards on 10 attempts on 32 pass snaps, 5.3 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

WR Darrius Heyward-Bey: Caught 4 passes for 40 yards on 5 attempts on 42 pass snaps, 0.5 YAC per catch, 1 drop

WR Denarius Moore: Caught 2 passes for 31 yards on 8 attempts on 31 pass snaps, 4.5 YAC per catch, 2 drops

CB Ronald Bartell: Allowed 4 catches for 89 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 2 solo tackle, 1 quarterback hit on 1 blitz

MLB Omar Gaither: Allowed 1 catch for 21 yards on 2 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

RE Matt Shaughnessy: 1 quarterback hit on 24 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders: Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 14 NFL Picks, Broncos, Raiders

Denver Broncos (9-3) at Oakland Raiders (3-9)

The Raiders actually gave a little bit of effort last week. They still lost at home to the previously 3-8 Browns in a game they trailed throughout, but that was sadly a big step up from where they were the week before. In their 3 games prior, they lost all 3 by 21 or more, which is actually incredibly rare. That’s only the 13th time that’s happened since 1989, which is why I love betting teams off back-to-back losses of 21 or more (36-17 ATS since 2002).

This week, the Raiders are actually in a really good spot. For one, divisional favorites of more than a touchdown are just 2-10 ATS this season, which I think speaks to the high level of parity in the NFL this season. The Broncos struggled and failed to cover the spread in a win in Kansas City two weeks ago in a very similar type game.

Meanwhile, teams are 102-57 ATS as dogs before being favorites in the last 2 seasons and the Raiders host the Chiefs next week, a game they are expected to be favorites in. Going off that, divisional home dogs are 20-10 ATS before being divisional home favorites since 1989. The Raiders are also in their 2nd straight game as home dogs off a loss, a situation teams are 60-41 ATS in since 2002.

Speaking of that loss last week, as I mentioned, the Raiders were actually competitive. Teams that are on long losing streaks that almost broke through the week before actually cover at a high rate. Teams that lose 5+ straight are 60-35 ATS since 2002 off a loss by 8 or fewer. All the trends say they should cover, but of course, all the trends said they would cover against Baltimore, New Orleans, and Cincinnati too and they got blown out.

This week, we’re actually getting line value with the Broncos. Using the net points per drive differential method of computing real line, this line should be Denver -13.5. The Broncos rank 5th in net points per drive at 0.62 the Raiders rank 31st in net points per drive at -0.90. If we take the difference between those two, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game), and add 3 points in the Raiders’ direction for home field advantage, we get around Denver -13.5. That line checks out with DVOA (which is net points per drive based, but takes other things into account like schedule). The Broncos rank 2nd in both DVOA and weighted DVOA, while the Raiders rank 31st and 32nd respectively in those two metrics.

However, unlike the Baltimore game, the New Orleans game, and the Cincinnati game, in which the Raiders showed no effort, this is a divisional matchup. In fact, it’s a home primetime game against not only their biggest rival, but by far the best team in the division. This is their Super Bowl. Just like the Eagles last week, they should give their best effort of the season and cover a large spread against a superior team.

Actually, where the Raiders are right now is very similar to where the Eagles were last week. The Eagles were atrocious over a 4 game stretch, getting outscored 125-64, and then were competitive as home dogs against a crappy team. The Raiders were also atrocious over a 4 game stretch, getting outscored 167-77, and then were competitive as home dogs against a crappy team. Now, like the Eagles were last week, the Raiders are double digit divisional dogs in a game with all the trends on their side in a game that means much more for them than their opponent. The Broncos just want a win, while the Raiders are playing for pride.

I also like that the public likes the Broncos. The odds makers always make money in the long run, so it makes sense to fade the public whenever it seems appropriate. It’s never really a bad thing to be on the same side as the odds makers. They know what they’re doing. However, like the Eagles last week, I can’t make a big play on the Raiders. They should be the right side though.

Public lean: Denver (70% range)

Denver Broncos 27 Oakland Raiders 20

Pick against spr­ead: Oakland +10.5 (-110) 2 units

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Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders: Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 13 NFL Picks, Browns, Raiders

Cleveland Browns (3-8) at Oakland Raiders (3-8)

The Raiders seem to have completely quit. They’ve lost 4 straight by a combined score of 169-79. Reports out of their practices aren’t pretty either as middle linebacker Rolando McClain, actually one of their better defensive players, has been suspended for 2 games for conduct detrimental to the team, reportedly that he yelled at 1st year Head Coach Dennis Allen. It was first reported that McClain had been waived as he posted on Facebook that he was no longer an Oakland Raider and that he was looking forward to playing for an “actual team,” but after the dust cleared it appears he is technically still on the roster.

I picked the Raiders to cover last week for a big play. It seemed reasonable. The Bengals were 3-9 ATS as touchdown favorites in the Marvin Lewis era and teams were 36-16 ATS since 2002 off back-to-back losses by 21 or more. Teams in that situation tend to be undervalued, embarrassed, and overlooked, but none of that matters if you’ve quit.

When the Raiders lost to the Bengals by 24, it was believe it or not just the 13th time since 1989 that a team had lost 3 straight by 21 or more. That’s how rarely teams get blown out by that much and how bad things have gotten in Oakland. For the record, teams off 3+ losses of 21 or more are 4-8 ATS, which makes sense since those seem to be teams who have quit. The rule of thumb, if a team has lost 2 straight by 21 or more, bet them, but if they don’t come through for you, definitely stay away from them in the next week.

The Browns, meanwhile, got a huge win last week against the Steelers, but they weren’t as impressive as the final score would suggest. They needed a fluky turnover total (8) by the Steelers, which was just the 13th time that’s happened since 1989, to even win by 6 against the Charlie Batch led Steelers who were in a bad spot sandwiched in between two huge games with the Ravens. That won’t happen again. Turnover differentials are incredibly inconsistent anyway.

That loss shifted this line 2.5 points from last week as it was a pick em and now Cleveland is favored by 2.5 on the road. However, that doesn’t mean the Browns are overrated or anything. They were underrated before last week. They haven’t gotten blown off the field by anyone this season and they have a very solid defense. Despite their record, they rank 22nd in net points per drive and 25th in DVOA and weighted DVOA. The Raiders, meanwhile, rank 31st in net points per drive, 31st in DVOA, and 32nd in weighted DVOA. The real line using the net points per drive method is Cleveland -5, so there’s still line value with the Browns in spite of the line movement.

That being said, it’d hard to take the Browns for a big play. They’re coming off such a huge win against the Steelers. Teams tend to struggle after beating the Steelers anyway, for some reasons, going 19-40 ATS in that situation since 2002. That’s not the case for any other team. You can only imagine how much bigger it is for the Browns, who had previously beaten the Steelers just twice in their last 23 matchups. They might be flat for a crappy Raiders team. However, the Raiders will definitely be flat since that seems to be their thing now. Besides, they may be looking forward to a Thursday Night game against Denver next week. It’s not a huge play at all, but Cleveland should be able to come into Oakland and beat a reeling Oakland team by at least 3.

Public lean: Cleveland (50% range)

Sharps lean: CLE 7 OAK 6

Final update: No surprise people are staying away from this game. The shitty Raiders or the Browns as road dogs (which they somehow are 6-1 ATS as since 2002)?

Cleveland Browns 24 Oakland Raiders 20

Pick against spread: Cleveland -2.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Oakland Raiders: Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#30)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Raiders

Last week: 30 (+0)

Record: 3-8

Net points per drive: -0.93 (31st)

DVOA: -37.7% (31st)

Weighted DVOA: -38.3% (32nd)

Tier 7: Terrible

Studs

RB Marcel Reece: Rushed for 74 yards (54 after contact) on 15 attempts, 7 broken tackles, caught 4 passes for 29 yards on 8 attempts, 2 drops, 1 interception when thrown to

CB Ronald Bartell: Allowed 2 catches for 21 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 2 solo tackles

CB Michael Huff: Allowed 2 catches for 12 yards on 6 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

DT Desmond Bryant: 1 quarterback hit and 4 quarterback hurries on 28 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle

K Sebastian Janikowski: 3 kickoffs, 2 touchbacks, 74.3 yards per kickoff, 19.0 opponent’s average starting distance, 1/1 FG (55)

Duds

LG Cooper Carlisle: Allowed 4 quarterback hurries on 38 pass block snaps, run blocked for -2 yards on 3 attempts

RG Mike Brisiel: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 5 quarterback hurries on 38 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 4 yards on 2 attempts

RT Khalif Barnes: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 38 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 22 yards on 3 attempts

WR Darrius Heyward-Bey: Did not catch a pass on 4 attempts on 37 pass snaps, 1 drop

WR Denarius Moore: Caught 1 pass for 20 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts on 35 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

SS Tyvon Branch: Allowed 1 catch for 48 yards on 1 attempt, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 4 missed tackles, 1 quarterback hurry on 1 blitz

FS Matt Giordano: Allowed 1 catch for 7 yards and a touchdown on 1 attempt, 1 pass deflection, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 3 missed tackles

RE Matt Shaughnessy: 1 sack on 27 pass rush snaps, 1 assist, 1 stop

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Oakland Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Bengals, Raiders

Oakland Raiders (3-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-5)

Every year, one team goes from the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer. The Bengals now stand at 5-5, but I won’t rule out them losing out. The Lions at 4-6 are the favorite this year and I also won’t rule out that we won’t have one this year (only happened once in the last decade).  However, looking at the Bengals’ remaining schedule, they’re only definitely going to be favored in one more game, this one at home for Oakland. At Philadelphia and home for Dallas are other options, but if they lost this week, they could conceivably, but improbably, lose out.

Will they lose at home this week to the Raiders? I won’t say it’s impossible. Teams are 36-16 ATS off back-to-back losses by 21 or more since 2002, and the Raiders have lost 55-20 and 38-17 in their last two games. Teams tend to be embarrassed, playing for pride, undervalued, and overlooked by their opponent in this spot. That trend is actually a perfect 4-0 ATS and SU this year and has led to such upsets as Tennessee over Detroit, Tennessee over Pittsburgh, Buffalo over Arizona, and last week’s NY Jets over St. Louis. This line has shifted 2.5 points in the last week (from -5.5 to -8), so the Raiders are definitely undervalued. In spite of this, the public is still on the Bengals, important since the odds makers desperately need to make money back after a bad 3 week stretch, though it’s not a huge lean.

The Raiders are also dogs before being favorites. Teams are 96-53 ATS in this spot over the last 2 seasons. They host the crappy Browns next week, so they’ll be completely focused for the Bengals this week in a pride game. I can’t say the Bengals will be completely focused for them, however. The Raiders certainly don’t scare anyone right now and the Bengals have to go to San Diego next week, where they will almost definitely be underdogs. Teams are 111-56 ATS since 2008 as dogs before being favorites when their opponent will be dogs the following week, including 34-13 ATS when all three games (the current game, their next game, and their opponent’s next game) are all non-divisional. This game simply means different things to these two teams.

Besides, the Bengals tend to disappoint as favorites. Since 2007, they are 6-14 ATS as home favorites. Even in the last two years, when young Andy Dalton has had a ton of success against non-playoff teams (9-0 last year against non-playoff teams, 4-2 this year against teams currently outside of the playoffs), they are just 2-4 ATS as home favorites. In total in the Marvin Lewis era (going back to 2003), they are 14-25 ATS as home favorites, including just 3-9 ATS as favorites of a touchdown or more.

We’re also getting some line value with the Bengals. The yards per play differential method of computing line value says this line should be Cincinnati -5.5 and the rate of sustaining drives differential method says this line should be Cincinnati -7, both of which are lower than this -8 line. 8 points seems like too many points even if the Raiders didn’t have a significant trends advantage.

The Raiders should cover this spread and there’s a decent chance they could even win this game. This would be a bigger play on the Raiders if it wasn’t for 3 things. First, the Raiders have burned me twice in the last 2 weeks, though I never really let this scare me off, any team can cover at any time and the Raiders are undervalued and possibly very embarrassed. I say possibly because there’s a chance they may have quit on their Head Coach, which is the 2nd reason, but they have a 1st year Head Coach so it’s unlikely they’ve already quit. Third, and most significantly, the Raiders have to travel as a West Coast team to the Eastern time zone for a 1 PM start. Teams tend to struggle in this spot. The Raiders are just 7-14 ATS in this situation since 2002. It’s still a significant play on the Raiders.

Public lean: Cincinnati (60% range)

Sharps lean: OAK 9 CIN 2

Final update: All 3 of my co-picks of the week line up with heavy sharps lean. I always have my best weeks when that happens.

Oakland Raiders 23 Cincinnati Bengals 20 Upset Pick +330

Pick against spread: Oakland +8 (-110) 4 units

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Oakland Raiders: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#30)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Raiders

Last week: 30 (+0)

Record: 3-7

The Raiders have lost two straight in embarrassing fashion, losing 55-20 to the Ravens and 38-17 to the Saints last week at home and they’ve now allowed 135 points in their last 3 games. The good news is that teams generally do well after two straight losses by 21 or more (36-16 ATS since 2002), as they’re embarrassed and overlooked. If the Raiders can’t have a rebound game this week against an overrated Bengals team, it might be time to wonder if they’ve simply quit. Their new front office inherited a mess and it will take at least another year or two to get them back to even being respectable. Before his death, Al Davis really mortgaged their future for two 8-8 seasons (makes sense since he was dying).

Studs

RB Marcel Reece: Rushed for 103 yards (84 after contact) on 19 attempts, 3 broken tackles, caught 4 passes for 90 yards on 5 attempts, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 8 pass block snaps

Duds

RG Mike Brisiel: Allowed 5 quarterback hurries on 46 pass block snaps, run blocked for 16 yards on 3 attempts

TE Brandon Myers: Caught 6 passes for 55 yards and a touchdown on 9 attempts on 35 pass snaps, 5.8 YAC per catch, 2 drops, 2 interceptions from thrown to, allowed 2 quarterback hurries on 7 pass block snaps

WR Denarius Moore: Caught 1 pass for 9 yards on 7 attempts on 34 pass snaps, 6.0 YAC per catch

LOLB Miles Burris: 9 solo tackles, 4 stops, 2 missed tackles, allowed 8 catches for 63 yards and a touchdown on 8 attempts

CB Michael Huff: Allowed 3 catches for 55 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

DT Tommy Kelly: Did not record a pressure on 23 pass rush snaps, 1 assist

RE Matt Shaughnessy: Did not record a pressure on 20 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

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New Orleans Saints at Oakland Raiders: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Raiders, Saints

New Orleans Saints (4-5) at Oakland Raiders (3-6)

The Saints are overrated. Yes, they knocked off Atlanta, but Dallas, Carolina, Washington, and Oakland almost did so. Their defense is still a joke. Because of their defense, they rank 28th in yards per play differential and 25th in rate of sustaining drives differential. Their defense ranks dead last in both of those metrics. The Raiders, meanwhile, aren’t much better, but they rank 24th in yards per play differential and 23rd in rate of sustaining drives differential. They rank better in both of those statistics than the Saints and somehow they’re still home dogs.

Using those statistics to compute real line, we get that Oakland should be 3.5 point favorites using the yards per play differential method and 4.5 points favorites using the rate of sustaining drives differential method. Instead, Oakland is +5.5. That’s 9 or 10 points of line value, which is an absolutely ridiculous amount to get at this point in the season.

Besides, New Orleans has never been good on the road as favorites outside of their division, even when they were good. Since the start of the 2010 season, they are 3-7 ATS as non-divisional road favorites. In his last 13 games as road favorites of 4 or more, Brees is just 4-9 ATS. Their struggles outside of their dome are well documented. Since the start of the 2008 season, Brees completes 68.5% of his passes for an average of 8.1 YPA and 119 touchdowns to 43 interceptions indoors, as opposed to 66.5% completion, 7.5 YPA, and 53 touchdowns to 30 interceptions outside.

Speaking of New Orleans being road favorites, teams are 75-97 ATS as road favorites after being home dogs since 1989. The Saints were home dogs against the Falcons last week. Meanwhile, teams are 68-104 ATS as road favorites before being home dogs since 1989. The Saints go home and will be dogs against San Francisco next week. Furthermore, teams are 12-28 ATS as non-conference favorites off a divisional upset win before being dogs. Teams are 16-5 ATS after ending a perfect season during week 9 or later, but I still think overall the Saints are in a bad spot this week, in addition to being overrated and a poor team on the road, outside of the division, and outside of their dome.

Meanwhile, the Raiders are in a great spot. It may not seem like it after their 35 point loss in Baltimore last week, but that’s exactly why they’re in a good spot. Teams are 62-31 ATS since 2002 coming off a loss of 31+ or more. Teams coming off a blowout like that tend to be overlooked, undervalued, embarrassed and playing for respect.

I think they’ll definitely be the latter of those 2 things. That speaks for itself. I think the Saints will also overlook this lowly non-conference opponent sandwiched in between games against Atlanta and San Francisco, two of the premier teams in their conference (after that they go to Atlanta and the Giants and then host Tampa Bay). Road favorites are 20-39 ATS before being dogs in 3 straight. I also think the Raiders are undervalued as this line has moved from -3 to -5.5 in the last week, giving us even more line value.

The only thing I’m worried about other than that 16-5 trend that I mentioned earlier is that the NFC is 25-16 against the AFC this year, but the Raiders don’t have to win to cover here. Plus, on top of all the things I’ve already mentioned, the public is pounding the Saints. The public always loses money in the long run. I like them to cover the 5.5 for a big play.

Public lean: New Orleans (90% range)

Sharps lean: NO 14 OAK 10

Final update: No change.

Oakland Raiders 31 New Orleans Saints 27 Upset Pick +190

Pick against spread: Oakland Raiders +5.5 (-110) 4 units

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Oakland Raiders: Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#30)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Raiders

Last week: 30 (+0)

Record: 3-6

The Raiders surrendered the biggest points total of the year last week in Baltimore and it was just as bad as it sounded. They allowed two special teams touchdowns (one off a fake field goal, one off a kick return) and blew two separate 4th downs thanks to botched quarterback/center exchanges. By the way, I don’t disagree with the Ravens decision to run up the score and go for the fake field goal. One, the Raiders had it coming to them after taunting the Ravens down by close to 30 points on the previous play. Two, I’ve always said, if you don’t want to get the score run up on you, don’t suck. It’s not unsportsmanlike. In fact, it’s more unsportsmanlike to cry because you can’t stop the other team. Three, the Ravens haven’t had a commanding win like that since week 1 so they needed it for morale.

Studs

LT Jared Veldheer: Did not allow a pressure on 49 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 1 attempt

LG Cooper Carlisle: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 49 pass block snaps, run blocked for 8 yards on 3 attempts

C Stefen Wisniewski: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 49 pass block snaps, run blocked for 28 yards on 10 attempts, 1 penalty

CB Michael Huff: Allowed 3 catches for 65 yards on 7 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 1 interception, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist

P Shane Lechler: 5 punts for 274 yards, 1 inside 20, 4 returns for 36 yards, 47.6 net yards per punt

Duds

RT Willie Smith: Allowed 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 2 quarterback hurries on 42 pass block snaps

ROLB Phillip Wheeler: Allowed 6 catches for 88 yards on 6 attempts, 2 penalties, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops

LOLB Miles Burris: 3 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hit on 12 blitzes, allowed 5 catches for 63 yards on 5 attempts

FS Matt Giordano: Allowed 3 catches for 51 yards and 2 touchdown on 5 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle

DT Tommy Kelly: 1 quarterback hurry on 29 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens: Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 10 NFL Picks, Raiders, Ravens

Oakland Raiders (3-5) at Baltimore Ravens (6-2)

The Ravens may be 6-2, but dating back to week 1, this team has not won a single game by 10 or more and only one was decided by more than a touchdown, last week at Cleveland, a game in which the lowly Browns actually scored more frequently than the Ravens, but frequently imploded in field goal range and had to settle for 5 field goals. During that stretch, they’ve had two less than stellar performances against the Browns, a 3 point road win against the lowly Chiefs, a near home loss to the Cowboys, and a blowout loss in Houston. This team hasn’t done anything remotely impressive since a 31-30 home win against the Patriots week 3.

Their defense has been destroyed by injuries and ranks 26th in yards per game allowed, while the offense ranks just 19th, producing more than 40 yards per game less than their defense allows and because of Joe Flacco’s inconsistencies, they remain a unit that cannot be relied on weekly to win the game for them if the defense isn’t playing well. They rank just 9th in yards per play differential and 19th in rate of sustaining drives differential. They’re pretty overrated right now.

The Raiders aren’t very good either, but we’re getting line value with them. The yards per play differential method gives us a real line of -7, but the rate of sustaining drives method, the one Baltimore really struggles in, says this line should be -3.5 as Oakland ranks 23th, as opposed to Baltimore ranking 19th. That says these two teams are pretty even. I’m not saying they are. We have to look at both metrics to give us the whole picture, but we’re definitely getting line value with the road team here and pretty significant line value. The Ravens don’t deserve to be -7.5 here.

We’re also getting an opportunity to fade a heavy public lean. As some of you may know, the public killed the odds makers in unprecedented fashion last week, going 12-2 and winning every heavy lean. The odds makers aren’t going broke or anything. They killed the public for the first 8 weeks of the season and are still up on the year, but given that, I would be very nervous to bet on a heavy public lean this week because the odds makers, regardless of whether or not you believe in conspiracy theories, always have a way of bouncing back.

Baltimore is also in a bad spot as they go to Pittsburgh next week, a huge game for them. They’re not going to be focused for the lowly non-divisional Raiders with that huge game on their schedule. They’re also coming off a divisional win against the Browns. Teams are 8-15 ATS as non-divisional touchdown favorites off a divisional win as favorites before being divisional dogs since 1989. It’s a very specific trend, but it makes sense. Why would the Ravens be focused for the Raiders after a divisional win before facing their biggest rival, the divisional Pittsburgh Steelers?

The Ravens have won 15 straight home games and they are 20-1 at home in the last 2 and a half seasons, but they’re also just 8-12 ATS at home in that stretch. They’re winning, but not by a lot, which has pretty much been the story of this Ravens’ season (2 wins by more than a touchdown). I love getting more than a touchdown with the Raiders. They’re also just 3-9 ATS as 7+ home dogs since 2010. If the Raiders didn’t have to play this game as a West Coast team at 1 PM ET on the East Coast, this would be a bigger play, but it’s still a significant play on the Raiders.

Public lean: Baltimore (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Oakland covers)

Sharps lean: BAL 6 OAK 4

Final update: No change.

Baltimore Ravens 23 Oakland Raiders 20

Pick against spread: Oakland +7.5 (-110) 3 units

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Oakland Raiders: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#30)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Raiders

Last week: 30 (-1)

Record: 3-5

Oakland/Tampa Bay was a crazy game for statistics. Everyone knows about Doug Martin’s 272 total yards and 4 total touchdowns, which was the 4th highest single game fantasy football total in history. However, we also had Carson Palmer throw for 414 yards and 4 touchdowns in a losing effort for just the 7th time in NFL history. Meanwhile, because of injuries to running backs Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson, the Raiders ran just 11 times to 62 passes, just the 2nd time in NFL history a team ran 50+ fewer times than they passes. Fullback Marcel Reece took over as the running back after McFadden and Goodson got hurt, but did not get a single carry. He did, however, lead the team with 8 catches for 96 yards and a touchdown.

Studs

LG Cooper Carlisle: Didn’t allow a pressure on 68 pass block snaps, run blocked for 2 yards on 2 attempts

C Stefen Wisniewski: Didn’t allow a pressure on 68 pass block snaps, run blocked for 7 yards on 1 attempt

FB Marcel Reece: Caught 8 passes for 95 yards and a touchdown on 9 attempts

LE Lamarr Houston: 2 quarterback hits and 2 quarterback hurries on 27 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 4 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

RE Andre Carter: 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 12 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 3 stops

Duds

RT Willie Smith: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 4 quarterback hurries on 68 pass block snaps, 1 penalty

CB Michael Huff: Allowed 5 catches for 147 yards and 2 touchdowns on 7 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist

LOLB Miles Burris: Allowed 5 catches for 45 yards on 5 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 4 missed tackles, 2 quarterback hurries on 9 blitzes

DT Tommy Kelly: Did not record a pressure on 27 pass rush snaps, 1 missed tackle

DT Richard Seymour: 1 quarterback hurry on 29 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

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