Raiders

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Oakland Raiders: Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 9 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Raiders

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4) at Oakland Raiders (3-4)

After unimpressive wins over the Jaguars and Chiefs, the Raiders now sit at 3-4 and are somehow in the AFC playoff mix. However, they still aren’t very good. They have a point differential of -42. They got blown out in Oakland and in Miami and they weren’t impressive in either of their last 2 wins against crappy teams. They beat the Steelers in Oakland, but the Titans beat them in Tennessee. They also lost at home to San Diego and while they played the Falcons tough in Atlanta, so did the Panthers.

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are at 3-4 as well, but they come from a tougher conference (the NFC is 20-12 against the AFC) and they’ve had more impressive wins. They also have a +31 points differential and they have yet to lose by more than a touchdown all year. Josh Freeman is 82 of 143 (57.3%) for 1309 yards (9.2 YPA), 10 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions in his last 4 games.

He’s a natural deep ball thrower who was afraid to throw deep last season, throwing longer than 20 yards through the air on just 6.5% of his throws, by far least in the league, despite being accurate of 52.8% of them, 3rd best in the NFL. This year, thanks to new found chemistry with free agent acquisition Vincent Jackson, he is going deep 6th most in the league, 13.5% and, more importantly, has the 3rd highest accuracy percentage, 56.7%, completing 16 of 30 for 669 yards and 3 touchdowns, with 1 drop. I believe this is here to stay.

In spite of this, Oakland is favorites here, even if only by 1 point. The yards per play method actually suggests they should be 5.5 point favorites, but the rate of sustaining drives method suggests this should be a pick em. Tampa Bay has the momentum right now, so I don’t think there’s line value either way. Tampa Bay is also in a good spot as dogs before being favorites. Teams are 86-49 ATS in this spot since 2011. They host San Diego next week.

Meanwhile, Oakland is in a bunch of bad spots here as favorites. Bad teams in general struggle as favorites and I think they are a bad team. Demonstrating this, the Raiders are actually 9-27 ATS as favorites since 2003, going back to the year after their last winning season. Furthermore, home favorites are 146-225 ATS before being dogs in 3+ straight since 1989, which makes sense since those teams to be bad teams. Oakland’s next 3 games send them to Baltimore, home for New Orleans, and to Cincinnati.

Speaking of that Baltimore game, they could be 10 point dogs there. Teams are 25-48 ATS as favorites before being 10+ dogs since 2002. Again, bad teams are bad as favorites. When they are coming off another game in which they were dogs, that record is 17-34 ATS. This goes well with the sandwich game trend. Favorites are 81-117 ATS before and after being dogs since 2008.

Teams are also just 2-10 ATS as favorites before being 10+ dogs after a win as dogs since 2002. That expands to 8-21 ATS since 1989. They could also be just 7+ dogs next week, but it wouldn’t make much difference. Since 1989, teams are 29-57 ATS as favorites after being dogs before being 7+ dogs, 13-31 ATS after a win as dogs.

These are all variations of the sandwich game trend and they demonstrate the fact that bad teams struggle as favorites. We’re getting points with the better team here, I believe. All of the trends are against Oakland. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is rested off Thursday Night football. Teams are 114-93 ATS on Sunday Night after Thursday Night. They’re also in their 2nd straight road game. This tends to be a good spot. Teams are 191-138 ATS in their 2nd straight road game since 2008, including 94-61 ATS in their 2nd straight as road dogs and 30-19 ATS off a win as road dogs. It’s strongest with road dogs off a road loss, but there’s a trend in this situation here too.

This would be a bigger pick if we were getting line value. This line shifted 2 points in the last week because of Tampa Bay’s strong showing on Thursday Night Football and Tampa Bay is a public dog this week. However, I still like the Buccaneers. Instead of putting 3 units on the spread and 1 on the money line, I’m putting all 4 on the money line. It’s not worth the extra 15 cents to get protection from a one point loss.

Public lean: Tampa Bay (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Oakland covers)

Sharps lean: TB 14 OAK 4

Final update: Another sharps lean lining up with one of my big picks. Good to see. I think I’ll add a unit. I feel really good about this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 Oakland Raiders 20 Upset Pick +105 5 units

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +1 (-110) 0 units

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Oakland Raiders: Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#29)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Raiders

Last week: 29 (+2)

Record: 3-4

After unimpressive wins over the crappy Jaguars and Chiefs, the Raiders are now 3-4 and somehow right in the thick of the playoff race. However, I’m still not sold on this team just because they beat some crappy teams. They schedule gets tougher going forward as they host Tampa Bay, go to Baltimore, host New Orleans, go to Cincinnati, host Cleveland, host Denver, host Kansas City, go to Carolina, and go to San Diego. I don’t think they’ll win very many games.

Studs

LG Cooper Carlisle: Did not allow a pressure on 29 pass block snaps, run blocked for 8 yards on 3 attempts

ROLB Phillip Wheeler: 11 solo tackles, 1 assist, 6 stops, 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 9 blitzes, allowed 7 catches for 66 yards on 7 attempts

LOLB Miles Burris: 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 5 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hurry on 8 blitzes, allowed 4 catches for 25 yards on 4 attempts

SS Tyvon Branch: Allowed 1 catch for 1 yard on 2 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 1 quarterback hit on 6 blitzes

FS Matt Giordano: Did not allow a completion on 1 attempt, 1 interception, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist

DT Tommy Kelly: 2 quarterback hits and 4 quarterback hurries on 32 pass rush snaps, no tackles

K Sebastian Janikowski: 7 kickoffs, 5 touchbacks, 70.9 yards per kickoff, 18.9 opponent’s average starting distance, 4/4 FG (29, 32, 35, 36)

Duds

None.

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Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs: Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 8 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Raiders

Oakland Raiders (2-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-5)

Before the bye, I made a big play on the Chiefs to win in Tampa Bay because I felt they were undervalued because of their terrible turnover differential. I noted how they were on a record worst pace in turnover differential and that, at the very least, that would slow. I also noted how they were recovering a very low percentage of all fumbles that hit the ground, how they were throwing interceptions at a rate far higher than Matt Cassel’s career rate, and how they weren’t forcing a lot of interceptions because of the caliber quarterbacks they had faced. I also brought up the inconsistency of turnovers.

But there was one thing I forgot to take into account: Brady Quinn. I’m not saying I didn’t know he was going to start. I factored him into the equation by basically saying that Quinn’s career interception rate was much lower than Cassel’s this season so even if you didn’t believe that Cassel’s interception rate would eventually go towards his career mark that you had to agree Quinn would be less likely to throw interceptions than Cassel would have.

The issue, however, is Quinn’s career YPA. Quinn’s career YPA is 5.4, more than a yard per attempt lower than not only Cassel’s career YPA, 6.6, but also his season YPA, 6.5. I cited yards per play as one of the statistics that showed the Chiefs were undervalued, but completely forgot to take into account that even though Quinn would be less likely to turn the ball over, he’d severely hurt their yard per play differential and stagnate their offense. That’s exactly what happened as the Chiefs were even in the turnover battle, but managed just 3.8 yards per play on offense. They also surrendered a whopping 9.1 yards per play defensively thanks to several big plays in a 38-10 losing effort.

If Cassel had been the one starting this game, I would have once again used the same argument to call the Chiefs undervalued, citing their yards per play differential in the games Cassel started and that their turnover differential would almost definitely improve for the reasons I listed above. However, for some reason, the Chiefs have chosen to go with Brady Quinn and that stagnant offense once again here this week. As a result, the Chiefs might actually be worse off than yards per play would suggest.

And yards per play doesn’t even suggest they are very good anymore, not after that abysmal showing in Tampa Bay, as they now rank 31st in the league in yards per play. I don’t think their defense will play as poorly as they did in Tampa Bay from here on out. That was an outlier. However, their offense will continue to be as stagnant as long as Quinn is the starter so I think that 31st place ranking is fair at best and possibly even overvalues them.

Using the yards per play method of determining line value, we get that Oakland, who ranks 17th with an even yards per play differential, should be 4.5 favorites here in Kansas City. I don’t just use that method anymore because it undervalues teams that don’t have a lot of big plays and undervalues teams that give up a lot of big plays (like the Chiefs did against Tampa Bay). Instead, I also use rate of sustaining drives differential, which compares how often, on any given set of downs, you convert for a first or score, as opposed to how often your defense allows the opponent to do so.

The Chiefs are better in this statistic because it doesn’t put as much value on the Chiefs’ defensive showing in Tampa Bay as yards per play differential does, as they rank 25th at -4.0%, while Oakland ranks 26th at -4.5%. That suggests that Kansas City should be -3.5 point favorites here at home, but it’s reasonable to expect the Chiefs to sink in that statistic with Quinn under center, stagnating this offense.

Right now, there are 8 teams in the league (Arizona, Seattle, Miami, Oakland, Cleveland, Carolina, Buffalo, Jacksonville) with a worse rate of sustaining drives than Kansas City, who convert for a first or a score on 72.3% of their downs, but most of that is Matt Cassel’s doing and won’t continue under Quinn. Against Tampa Bay, they converted just 60% of their sets of downs for first downs or scores, with 15 first downs, 2 turnovers on downs, 2 turnovers, and 6 punts. Either way we look at it, I think we’re getting line value with the Raiders and the Chiefs do not deserve to be home favorites.

Two trends work against the Chiefs here as well. For one, they’re divisional home favorites before being divisional road dogs as they head to San Diego to play the Chargers next week. Teams are 14-46 ATS in this spot since 2002. It certainly won’t help that they play San Diego on Thursday Night, just 4 days after this game. Meanwhile, Oakland hosts Tampa Bay next week and is expected to be favored. Dogs before being favorites are 84-46 ATS since 2011.

The Raiders seem like the right side, but it’s not a significant play for two reasons. One, picking Oakland means picking a publicly backed underdog and you’d have to be crazy to pick a publicly backed underdog this week for a significant play because eventually the favorite/underdog disparity will close (dogs are 63-39 ATS this year). If you can bet a favorite and simultaneously fade the public, you have to do it unless there’s a good reason not to (like that doing so means picking Brady Quinn as a favorite).

The 2nd reason is that crappy teams seem to be extra focused out of a bye. Since 1989, teams with 0 or 1 wins are 47-25 ATS out of their bye as long as it’s week 7 or later (those are the super crappy teams). As favorites, those teams are 8-2 ATS as favorites and 23-9 ATS in the division. I just can’t take Brady Quinn as a favorite, especially as a home divisional favorite before being a divisional dog and against a dog that will be a favorite next week. If Matt Cassel were starting, it probably would have been a unit on the Chiefs. Instead, I’m taking the Raiders. Instead of putting a unit on the money line and a unit on the spread, I’m going to put both on the money line. It’s never worth the 15 cents to have protection against a 1 point loss.

Public lean: Oakland (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Kansas City covers)

Sharps lean: KC 12 OAK 9

Final update: No change.

Oakland Raiders 17 Kansas City Chiefs 13 Upset Pick +105 2 units

Pick against spread: Kansas City +1 (-110) 0 units

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Oakland Raiders: Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Raiders

Last week: 29 (-2)

Record: 2-4

I went back and forth between the Raiders and Chiefs here, but I ultimately decided to drop the Raiders to this spot, in spite of their overtime home win. If you need Blaine Gabbert to get hurt to beat the Jaguars in overtime at home, you might as well have lost. Chad Henne was horrific in relief of him, helping the Jaguars blow what was a 20-6 lead in the middle of the 3rd quarter, but their terrible secondary actually made Gabbert look functional before he got hurt, completing 8 of 12 for 110 yards and a touchdown. Fortunately (or unfortunately), the Raiders go to Kansas City this week to settle who is actually the 2nd worst team in the league in the Toilet Bowl this week. If the Raiders win, they’d stand at 3-4 thanks to two easy games and I guess you can’t count them out in the crappy AFC, sadly.

Studs

C Stefen Wisniewski: Did not allow a pressure on 53 pass block snaps, run blocked for 39 yards on 10 attempts

CB Michael Huff: Allowed 1 catch for 2 yards on 6 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 4 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops

LE Lamarr Houston: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 34 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 6 stops

Duds

RB Darren McFadden: Rushed for 53 yards (36 after contact) on 19 carries, allowed 1 quarterback hit on 9 pass block snaps, caught 4 passes for 28 yards on 6 attempts, 1 drop

RT Willie Smith: Allowed 3 quarterback hits and 4 quarterback hurries on 53 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 1 attempt

RE Matt Shaughnessy: Did not record a pressure on 26 pass rush snaps, no tackles, 1 penalty

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders: Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 7 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Raiders

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4) at Oakland Raiders (1-4)

In the write up for Colts/Browns, I mentioned Bill Simmons’ theory from his picks column this week that because dogs are doing so well this year (57-32 ATS), the odds makers would start shrinking the spreads to compensate so the general public won’t catch on and just starting betting all dogs. He used that as part of his argument to pick Buffalo -3 over Tennessee and I used as part of my argument to pick Indianapolis -2 over Cleveland (I don’t think Buffalo and Tennessee are as unevenly matched as he thinks as they both have almost actually the same numbers in yards per play and rate of sustaining drives differential).

However, one thing we both agree on is that the spread has not been shrunk on this game. He took them at +4.5 and I would have too. Now, the spread has even jumped to +6. Given the rate dogs have been covering this year, there’s no way Oakland should be laying more than 3 at home. The reason behind this line not being shrunken is that the public seems to be overrating Oakland. After all, they won 8 games last year, beat Pittsburgh and almost beat Atlanta.

Even with a non-shrunken spread, there’s still a heavy public lean on Oakland. The odds makers have moved this line all the way up to 6 and still there’s heavy public action on Oakland. I love to fade heavy public leans because the public always ends up losing money. I’m not worried about the “fishy” line movement because it’s in the same direction of the line action and it’s also injury related. Daryl Smith, Dwight Lowery, and Laurent Robinson have all been ruled out when all looked like they could play earlier this week. Lowery and Robinson aren’t significant enough players for their absence to factor into this one and Smith has been out all year.

The argument behind Oakland being overrated is this: They won 8 games last year, but only had a Pythagorean Expectation of 6 wins. They also lost several key players in the offseason, including top cornerback Stanford Routt and Kamerion Wimbley. I called them overrated before the season and they have still managed to remain overrated despite a 1-4 record because of some “impressive performances.”

Yes, they beat Pittsburgh at home in Oakland, but so did Tennessee. Pittsburgh is just a horrific road team outside of the division. Last year, they almost lost to Curtis Painter and Tyler Palko on the road. The Atlanta game, meanwhile, can probably just be chalked up to Atlanta having a bad game or to the Falcons not being as good as their record. Remember, they beat Carolina by just 2 at home a couple weeks ago and they’re not any good either. Oakland has also lost in big blowout losses in Miami and Denver. They don’t deserve to be laying this many points over anyone, even the Jaguars, who are probably the league’s worst team.

The two measures of “real” line I normally use actually do say this line is reasonable or even a little small. The yards per play method says this line should be Oakland -12.5 and the rate of sustaining drives method says it should be -8. However, we need to add a human element to those formulas and realize they’re complete bullshit in this game. Jacksonville ranking by far dead last in both is skewing things. The yards per play method actually suggests everyone in the league would be at least 6.5 point favorites over Jacksonville, while the rate of sustaining drives method says everyone in the league would be at least 5.5 point favorites.

There’s actually a trend that says that Oakland doesn’t deserve to be laying this many points, even against an opponent as atrocious as Jacksonville. Teams that finished 6-10 or worse are 23-64 ATS since 2002. I know Jacksonville is atrocious, but I’d be willing to bet most of those teams that covered in those situations as 6+ dogs were as well. You kind of have to be to be dogs this big against a bad team. It’s unfortunate I don’t get to use this trend often (it also was in play 4 times last year), but I love using it when I can and with Oakland at 1-4 now, I think it’s safe to say I can.

Oakland is also in a bad spot as favorites after losing as dogs and before being dogs. Oakland lost in Atlanta last week and will go to Kansas City next week. Teams are 54-78 ATS in that spot since 2008, including 17-30 ATS when their opponent in the following week is divisional, which Kansas City obviously is. Jacksonville is horrible, but there are cases where every team is bettable. Oakland is unbettable in this spot and I do like Jacksonville a great deal. 23-64 ATS is hard to ignore. This is one of 3 co-picks of the week. I’m 8-2 on picks of the week and co-picks of the week this year.

Public lean: Oakland (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Jacksonville covers)

Sharps lean: JAC 12 OAK 7

Final update: LV Hilton line was at 4.5. I love Jacksonville at +6 because of the 6 and 6 rule. This is still a co-pick of the week.

Oakland Raiders 23 Jacksonville Jaguars 20

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +6 (-110) 4 units

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Oakland Raiders: Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#29)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Raiders

Last week: 30 (+1)

Record: 1-4

The Raiders move up, not because I was impressed with their near win in Atlanta, fluky things like that happen all the time in the NFL and I rarely put much stock in them, but because I think Kansas City proved that they sucked more this week with their epic stink bomb performance in Tampa Bay. This is still not a very good Raider team. Their blowout losses in Denver and Miami are more indicative of their level of talent than a home win over Pittsburgh (not looking so impressive now that Tennessee did it too) and last week’s showing in Atlanta.

Studs

LG Cooper Carlisle: Did not allow a pressure on 38 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 5 attempts

WR Denarius Moore: Caught 5 passes for 104 yards and a touchdown on 9 attempts on 22 pass snaps, 7.2 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

CB Michael Huff: Allowed 5 catches for 62 yards on 12 attempts, 1 interception, 3 pass deflections, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop

Duds

RB Darren McFadden: Rushed for 79 yards (48 after contact) and a touchdown on 27 attempts, 2 broken tackles, 1 fumble, caught 3 passes for 28 yards on 4 attempts, 1 drop, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 8 pass block snaps

LT Jared Veldheer: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 38 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 22 yards on 4 attempts

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Oakland Raiders at Atlanta Falcons: Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 6 NFL Picks, Falcons, Raiders

Oakland Raiders (1-3) at Atlanta Falcons (5-0)

Matt Ryan is 27-5 in his career at home, including 22-10 ATS and the Falcons are 5-0. The Raiders, meanwhile, are 1-3, coming off a blowout loss to the Broncos (before the bye) and have to travel to Atlanta and play a 1 PM ET game as a West Coast team. The Raiders, in particular, are 6-14 ATS in this situation in their since 2003. The Falcons should easily be able to cover the 9 point spread right?

Well, that seems to be what the public thinks as they are pounding the Falcons this week. I like to fade the public as much as I can anyway, but we’re also getting some line value with the Raiders. The difference between these two teams’ yards per play differentials is .6. An old gambling formula says to divide that by .15 and add 3 points either way for home field advantage, which would get us to a line of Atlanta -7, meaning we have 2 points of line value with the Raiders.

Why is this? Are the Raiders underrated. I don’t think so. A preseason overrated pick of mine, the Raiders have lived up to the billing and are 27th in terms of yards per play. Instead, it’s the Falcons who appear to be overrated. Despite their 5-0 record, they have a negative yards per play differential. That might sound ridiculous, until you consider that this team could easily be 3-2 if it wasn’t for Carolina’s horrendous end game management, Billy Cundiff’s existence, and Robert Griffin’s injury. A 3-2 with a negative yards per play differential isn’t uncommon. They’ve needed a little bit of luck to stay undefeated.

On top of that, they’ve been very reliant on the turnover, part of the reason why their yards per play differential doesn’t match up with their points differential and their record. The Falcons lead the league with a +10 turnover differential. However, turnover differentials tend to be very inconsistent on a week to week basis. If you look at every possible turnover differential that a team can have, teams in each group tend to average a turnover differential of about +0.0 the following week, no matter how good or bad they were in this area the following week. You can see more, here. That’s why I prefer to use yards to help me identify the underrated and overrated teams.

That being said, Atlanta is the pick here. I think the public has it right. Atlanta is a 9 point favorite going into a bye. 7+ favorites going into a bye are 42-17 ATS since 2002 in the regular season. Teams tend to be extra focused going into a bye and crush teams they’re supposed to crush. It’s just not a big play. Atlanta is also my survivor pick of the week on a week where there aren’t a lot of good choices. Teams in that aforementioned situation are a whopping 56-3 straight up. Atlanta isn’t losing here.

Public lean: Atlanta (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Oakland covers)

Sharps lean: OAK 7 ATL 14

Final update: No change.

Atlanta Falcons 34 Oakland Raiders 20 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF)

Pick against spread: Atlanta -9 (-110) 2 units

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Oakland Raiders: Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#30)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Raiders

Last week: 31 (+1)

Record: 1-3

I knew that win over the Steelers was a fluke. The Raiders looked awful in all facets of the game last week and once again look like the worst team in the league as they did two weeks ago. They rank 27th in the league in yards per play differential. Their defense is a mess and they just don’t have the offensive talent to keep up. I’ve said all along this will be one of the worst teams in the league this year. I’m standing by it.

Studs

RG Mike Brisiel: Did not allow a pressure on 38 pass block snaps, run blocked for 12 yards on 3 attempts

Duds

RB Darren McFadden: Rushed for 34 yards (13 after contact) on 13 carries, allowed 1 quarterback hit on 6 pass block snaps, 1 catch for 4 yards on 1 target

RT Willie Smith: Allowed 2 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 5 quarterback hurries on 38 pass rush snaps, run blocked for 5 yards on 1 attempt

FS Matt Giordano: Allowed 5 catches for 32 yards on 6 attempts, 9 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 missed tackles

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Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos: Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks, Broncos, Raiders

Oakland Raiders (1-2) at Denver Broncos (1-2)

I thought the Raiders were overrated coming into the season and now they’re even more overrated coming off a “surprising” win over the Steelers. Their upset win over the Steelers was not completely shocking given how much the Steelers have sucked over the last year plus on the road. They are -43 on the road in that time period, including playoffs, and +137 at home. They beat Indianapolis by just 3, Kansas City by just 4, and Cleveland by just 3 last year.

Given that they were missing James Harrison and Troy Polamalu last weekend, this upset was not shocking. There’s a reason I made it a very small pick even though Pittsburgh had the clear on paper advantage. The Raiders are one of 15 1-2 teams in the NFL right now. Some of them are going to make the playoffs, some of them are going to be terrible. I think this team is one of the latter. Remember, they lost 35-13 to the Dolphins just 2 weeks ago.

Their defense has been exactly as you’d expect from a defense that ranked 29th in scoring last year and then who lost their top cornerback and top pass rusher this offseason. Injuries have hammered them on that side of the ball too as linebacker Aaron Curry is expected to miss the entire season, while top cornerback Ronald Bartell will miss at least 6 weeks after being put on non-season ending IR.

Shawntae Spencer, another starting cornerback, could also miss this game. Spencer isn’t very good, but he was a starter at a very thin position to begin with. After failing to return everyone at the position who played a single snap for them in 2011, the Raiders have lost their top two cornerbacks with injury and will likely start Patrick Lee and Phillip Adams in this one. Meanwhile, defensive tackles Richard Seymour and Tommy Kelly are showing their age. They allowed 36 catches on 49 attempts for 384 yards and 4 touchdowns to Ben Roethlisberger and 433 total yards even in a winning effort last week. Yeah, good luck containing Peyton Manning.

The Raiders’ offense has been better and they were able to keep up with the Steelers last week, but I don’t expect that they’ll be able to do that this week. If they allow 31 points this week, they’ll probably lose easily. The Steelers’ defensive effort was pitiful last weekend on the road, missing James Harrison and Troy Polamalu. The Broncos have been one of the better defensive teams in the league this season and the Raiders will be without Darrius Heyward-Bey, so they’ll really only have one reliable receiver, Denarius Moore. Champ Bailey should be able to shut him down.

While the Raiders are a little overrated, the Broncos are a little underrated. Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Houston, talk about being welcomed back to the NFL harshly for Peyton Manning. The Broncos stand at 1-2, but they rank 9th in yards per play differential and they’ve been competitive in all 3 games despite a tough schedule. They should still be very tough to beat at home with their no huddle in the high altitude, despite a loss to a Houston team that might be the best in the league, and make the playoffs propelled by a 6-2 or 7-1 home record.

With a much, much easier matchup and in his 4th game back, Peyton Manning should be able to have by far his best game, and he hasn’t been terrible at all considering the matchups, completing 60.0% of his passes for 7.2 YPA and 5 touchdowns to 3 interceptions. I just don’t see any way this patchwork Raiders defense has any chance of stopping Manning and his no huddle offense in the high altitude. The Broncos should get into the 30s again and I don’t trust the Raiders to keep up. Despite 34 points last week, they average just 20.3 points play game.

One trend works against the Broncos, favorites off a loss as a dog before being dogs are 51-77 ATS since 2008. Teams tend to see those games as a breather and be flat, but this is a divisional game so it’s less likely they’ll be flat (11-16 ATS in that situation in a divisional game between two non-divisional games). Besides, at 1-2, this is a really important game for them.

Public lean: Denver (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Oakland covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): OAK 4 DEN 7

Denver Broncos 31 Oakland Raiders 17

Pick against spread: Denver -7 (-110) 3 units

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