Raiders

Oakland Raiders: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Raiders

Last week: 31 (+0)

Record: 1-2

Still not sold on this team as being anything better than one of the best teams in the league. Their upset win over the Steelers was not completely shocking given how much the Steelers have sucked over the last year plus on the road. They are -43 on the road in that time period, including playoffs, and +137 at home. They beat Indianapolis by just 3, Kansas City by just 4, and Cleveland by just 3 last year. Given that they were missing James Harrison and Troy Polamalu last weekend, this upset was not shocking. There’s a reason I made it a very small pick even though Pittsburgh had the clear on paper advantage. The Raiders are one of 15 1-2 teams in the NFL right now. Some of them are going to make the playoffs, some of them are going to be terrible. I think this team is one of the latter.

Studs

C Stefen Wisniewski: Did not allow a pressure on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 82 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts

RG Mike Brisiel: Did not allow a pressure on 37 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 5 yards on 2 attempts

LT Jared Veldheer: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 1 yards on 1 attempt

ROLB Phillip Wheeler: Allowed 5 catches for 28 yards and a touchdown on 8 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 7 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops

SS Tyvon Branch: Allowed 2 catches for 9 yards and a touchdown on 2 attempts, 8 solo tackles, 5 stops, 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 5 blitzes

Duds

CB Michael Huff: Allowed 8 catches for 80 yards and a touchdown on 11 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 3 missed tackles

FS Matt Giordano: Allowed 4 catches for 72 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle

DT Tommy Kelly: Did not record a pressure on 34 pass rush snaps, no tackles

Raiders getting destroyed by injuries, could move Michael Huff to cornerback

stevenlourie News, Raiders

I called the Raiders overrated before the season and said they were one of the worst teams in the league and an ugly 35-13 loss to the Dolphins is making that look pretty good. The new regime has a lot of promise, but they inherited a mess, an 8 win team (with a Pythagorean Expectation of 6 wins for stat nerds) that was above the cap and didn’t have very many draft picks. Whether or not the future is bright remains to be seen, but the present is pretty bad.

On top of all that, they’ve been destroyed by injuries. Linebacker Aaron Curry is expected to miss the entire season, while top cornerback Ronald Bartell will miss at least 6 weeks after being put on non-season ending IR. Shawntae Spencer, another starting cornerback, will also miss this week, as could middle linebacker Rolando McClain. McClain’s potential absence hurts as he’s one of their best defensive players and plays in a unit already starting a 4th round rookie. Travis Goethel, an inexperienced 2010 5th round pick, would start in his absence if he couldn’t go. He’s been practiced in spite of a concussion, but it’s unclear if he’s been given the necessary medical clearance to play. If he can’t obtain that by Sunday, it won’t matter that he practiced this week.

Spencer, meanwhile, isn’t very good, but he was a starter at a very thin position to begin with. After failing to return everyone at the position who played a single snap for them in 2011, the Raiders have lost their top two cornerbacks with injury and will likely start Patrick Lee and Phillip Adams in this one. Yeah, good luck containing Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown this week, as they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Raiders know they’re thin at cornerback, so they’re considering moving safety Michael Huff there, at least in certain situations, this week, but I don’t know if that will help. Huff hasn’t played cornerback since college, so he might not be any better and that would leave them short a starter at safety, one of the few positions where they actually have talent.

Offensively, they are expected to be without right tackle Khalif Barnes this week. Barnes isn’t great or anything, but replacement Willie Smith was horrendous last week after Barnes left the game. They’re already the 8th ranked offensive line in pass blocking efficiency and that will only get worse this week as they face a tough Pittsburgh pass rush. The Steelers tend to flat fall on the road, as they are -40 on the road since the beginning of last year, including playoffs, and +137 at home. They beat Indianapolis by just 3, Kansas City by just 4, and Cleveland by just 3 last year. However, they’re heading into a bye and good teams tend to be very focused and cover heading into a bye. Road favorites of 3+ and home favorites of 7+ are a combined 34-18 ATS heading into a bye since 2002, as long as their opponent isn’t also heading into a bye. I have a hard time seeing the Raiders avoiding on 0-3 hole this week.

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, Raiders, Steelers

Oakland Raiders (0-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1)

Before the season, I made a list of underrated and overrated teams, with the intent of betting them (or against them) until the odds makers caught up and I was proven wrong. This approach has worked well for me because I’m 10-4-2 ATS on games involving those teams. One thing I was dead on about was that the Raiders would be one of the worst teams in the league. They’ve been favored in each of their first 2 games, losing them both, including the last one in embarrassing fashion to the Dolphins, 35-13, a game I made a big play on in favor of the Dolphins.

Their defense has been exactly as you’d expect from a defense that ranked 29th in scoring last year and then who lost their top cornerback and top pass rusher this offseason. Injuries have hammered them on that side of the ball too as linebacker Aaron Curry is expected to miss the entire season, while top cornerback Ronald Bartell will miss at least 6 weeks after being put on non-season ending IR.

Shawntae Spencer, another starting cornerback, will also miss this game, as could middle linebacker Rolando McClain. Spencer isn’t very good, but he was a starter at a very thin position to begin with. After failing to return everyone at the position who played a single snap for them in 2011, the Raiders have lost their top two cornerbacks with injury and will likely start Patrick Lee and Phillip Adams in this one. Yeah, good luck containing Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown.

McClain’s potential absence also hurts as he’s one of their best defensive players and plays in a unit already starting a 4th round rookie. Travis Goethel, an inexperienced 2010 5th round pick, would start in his absence if he couldn’t go. Meanwhile, defensive tackles Richard Seymour and Tommy Kelly are showing their age as they just let Reggie Bush run for 172 yards and 2 scores on them last week en route to a 35-13 Miami victory in a game where the Dolphins totaled 452 yards.

Offensively, Carson Palmer has been what you’d expect and turning 33 this season, he’s not going to get any better. He’s not the problem though. The offense hasn’t been terrible and for the most part he’s not getting any help. He’s playing behind a 28th ranked offensive line in pass blocking efficiency and that will only get worse this week as they face a tough Pittsburgh pass rush, likely without starting right tackle Khalif Barnes. Barnes isn’t great or anything, but replacement Willie Smith was horrendous last week after Barnes left the game. And Darren McFadden? What the hell happened to Darren McFadden?

This has become a consensus awful team, one of the worst in the NFL. However, they still seem to be overrated by Vegas. How are they only -4 here? My first thought was trap line (more on that later), especially since most of the action is on Pittsburgh and the line is still falling, but I’m having a hard time seeing how Pittsburgh doesn’t cover this week.

Pittsburgh has a big home/road differential, dating back to the start of last season and have fallen flat on the road against bad teams in the past. This team is -40 on the road in that time period, including playoffs, and +137 at home. They beat Indianapolis by just 3, Kansas City by just 4, and Cleveland by just 3 last year. However, they’re heading into a bye and good teams tend to be very focused and cover heading into a bye.

Teams in general tend to cover heading into a bye, as long as their opponent isn’t also heading into one, going 151-126 ATS since 2002. However, good teams are even better. Road favorites of 3+ and home favorites of 7+ are a combined 34-18 ATS heading into a bye since 2002, as long as their opponent isn’t also heading into a bye. The Steelers, who are a perennially good team, have covered 4 out of 5 times before a bye under Mike Tomlin. Even with their recent road struggles, they should be extremely focused this week and obliterate an Oakland team that doesn’t stand much of a chance on paper.

The possibility of this being a trap line is the only reason this isn’t a bigger bet. Most of the money is on Pittsburgh and on top of the public being terrible on games where they lean heavily to one side this year, it’s a bad sign that most of the money is on one side and we have opposite line movement. Even heading into a bye, Pittsburgh could fall flat against a drastically inferior team on the road once again, especially since they will be without James Harrison and possibly Troy Polamalu again. I’m going with Pittsburgh because I just can’t see Oakland keeping this one close, but it’s not a big wager.

Public lean: Pittsburgh (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Oakland covers)

Pittsburgh Steelers 31 Oakland Raiders 13

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -4 (-110) 2 units

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Oakland Raiders: Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Raiders

Last week: 31 (+0)

Record: 0-2

I called this team overrated before the season and said they were one of the worst teams in the league and an ugly 35-13 loss to the Dolphins is making that look pretty good. The new regime has a lot of promise, but they inherited a mess, an 8 win team (with a Pythagorean Expectation of 6 wins for stat nerds) that was above the cap and didn’t have very many draft picks. Whether or not the future is bright remains to be seen, but the present is pretty bad.

Studs

SS Tyvon Branch: 11 solo tackles, 4 stops, was not thrown on, 1 quarterback hit on 4 blitzes

ROLB Phillip Wheeler: 9 solo tackles, 1 assist, 5 stops, 1 missed tackle, 2 quarterback hits on 9 blitzes

Duds

RB Darren McFadden: Rushed for 22 yards (25 after contact) on 11 carries, 1 broken tackle, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 9 pass block snaps, 2 catches for 19 yards on 5 targets, 2 drops

QB Carson Palmer: 24 of 48 for 373 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception, 1 batted pass, 3 drops, 69.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 19 of 49 drop backs (1 scramble, 0 sacks, 7-18, 1 drop)

LG Cooper Carlisle: Allowed 4 quarterback hits and 1 quarterback hurry on 52 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 2 attempts

RG Mike Brisiel: Allowed 2 quarterback hits and 2 quarterback hurries on 52 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 1 attempt

RT Willie Smith: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 4 quarterback hurries on 35 pass block snaps, 1 penalty

CB Joselio Hanson: Allowed 5 completions for 58 yards on 6 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

MLB Rolando McClain: Allowed 3 catches for 44 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

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Raiders’ get Stefen Wisniewski and Denarius Moore back, put Jacoby Ford and Ron Bartell on IR

stevenlourie News, Raiders

Already thin at cornerback, the Raiders were dealt another blow when they lost starter Ron Bartell for at least 6 weeks, as they put him on the injured reserve recall list, meaning he’ll miss at least 6 weeks. Bartell was signed as a free agent off the bargain rack by the cap troubled and cornerback troubled Raiders this offseason. Once a starter in St. Louis, Bartell missed all of last season with injuries, so this is not a good sign for him.

Having lost every cornerback who played a snap for them last season this offseason, the Raiders attempted to rebuild the cornerback position this offseason and were counting on Bartell as a starter, opposite Shawntae Spencer, another bargain rack guy. Now with Bartell out, the Raiders will turn to Patrick Lee, who has one career start, to be their starting cornerback. Final cut of the Eagles’ Joselio Hanson will continue to man the slot.

The Raiders also lost their top pass rusher, Kamerion Wimbley, this offseason and were counting on Matt Shaughnessy returning from injury to lead their pass rush, but they pressured Philip Rivers on just 10 of his 34 drop backs last week in a home loss to the Chargers, even though San Diego’s offensive line isn’t very good. The Raiders travel across the country on short rest for an early game against the Dolphins this week in the heat. Ryan Tannehill struggled last week, if there was ever a game for him to play well, it’s this one. The Raiders’ defense was 29th in scoring last year and could end up being even worse this season, when all is said and done.

The Raiders also put another player on IR, wide receiver and return man Jacoby Ford. Ford was not put on injured reserve recall, because teams are only allowed one of those, so he’s done for the year. A talented return man and a speedy receiver, Ford has struggled with injury problems throughout his career. In his absence, undrafted free agent Rod Streater, who did not live up to the hype in his first game, will play in the slot. Taiwan Jones and Phillip Adams will return kicks.

The good news is that the Raiders will get back starting wide receiver Denarius Moore this week, though hamstring injuries tend to linger. Also returning for the Raiders is center Stefen Wisniewski, who will hopefully add some life to a running game that managed just 45 yards on 20 carries in the opener, despite having Darren McFadden.

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Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Raiders

Oakland Raiders (0-1) at Miami Dolphins (0-1)

Before the season, I had the Raiders as one of my overrated teams. The Raiders’ Pythagorean Expectation last year suggested they should have won 6 games, not 8, as they went 7-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less, the most wins of that kind of any team last season. The Raiders also lost their top cornerback Stanford Routt and their top pass rusher Kamerion Wimbley in free agency.

If that’s not enough, starting linebacker Aaron Curry could be out for the year and will be replaced in the starting lineup by a 4th round rookie and defensive tackles Tommy Kelly and Richard Seymour are both going into their age 33 seasons, with the latter already dealing with a bad knee. They had the league’s 29th ranked scoring defense last year, allowing 27.1 points per game and could be the league’s worst scoring defense this year. Carson Palmer and the playmakers on offense can make some plays, but they’ll also commit a lot of turnovers and it won’t be enough to offset the defense’s play.

The idea behind identifying overrated and underrated teams was to be one step ahead of the odds makers and essentially blindly bet against the overrated teams and on the underrated teams until the odds makers caught up or the teams proved me wrong. Well I haven’t been proven wrong as the Raiders lost at home to a banged up Chargers team that normally struggles on the road early in the season. Have the odds makers caught up? Well, considering the Raiders are road favorites here in Miami, I would say no.

Miami is a very good team or anything, but the Raiders don’t deserve to be road favorites over anyone. I’ve mentioned before that teams that finish with 6 or fewer wins cover at about a 30% rate as favorites of 6 or more. Well, the Raiders aren’t favorites of 6 or more, but they’re road favorites of 2.5, which would translate to -8.5 in Oakland. The trend isn’t as strong in this situation, but the logic is the same; they’re just not good enough to be favored on the road over anyone.

There’s also the issue of the Raiders having to play a 1 PM game on the East Coast as a West Coast teams. Teams are typically flat in this situation and the Raiders are no exception, going 6-12 ATS on the East Coast in 1 PM games since 2003. The Raiders came in to Miami in a very similar situation last year and lost 34-14 as 3 point underdogs, even though the Dolphins were 4-7 at the time and the Raiders were 7-4. This time, the Raiders are favorites, which makes Miami an even more enticing bet since Oakland is 4-14 ATS as favorites since 2006. They also haven’t been road favorites since week 14 of 2005 (a loss), which makes sense since they’ve never been qualified to be road favorites since then. They aren’t this week either.

These teams are pretty evenly matched. This line should be about -3 in favor of Miami (3 points is home field advantage), as it was last year. The Dolphins are worse offensively since last year, but the Raiders are worse defensively. Instead, it’s -2.5 in favor of Oakland, so there’s about 5.5 points of line value, which goes back to my point about Oakland being overrated. That alone would be enough for a bet on Miami, but I like betting against Oakland as favorites and on the road on the East Coast at 1 PM.

Public lean: Oakland (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Miami covers)

Miami Dolphins 20 Oakland Raiders 17 Upset Pick +140

Pick against spread: Miami +2.5 (-105) 3 units

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Oakland Raiders: Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Raiders

Last week: 31 (+0)

Record: 0-1

It’s tough to learn much about the Raiders for their first game, except that they seem to be unable to not shoot themselves in the foot. An injury to their long snapper did them in as they went on to bungle 3 punts (1 blocked, 2 fumbled snaps), but they might have lost anyway. They only gave up 9 points off their 3 mistakes and they lost by 8. There’s no guarantee they would have held them scoreless on all 3 of those drives and 8 of their points game on a garbage time touchdown against prevent defense. It was an ugly game all around. The Chargers will get better as the season goes on. They’re always like this when the season starts. But that probably won’t be the case for the Raiders and I saw no reason to move them up from the bottom end of my Power Rankings.

Studs

ROLB Phillip Wheeler: Allowed 7 completions for 41 yards on 8 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 6 solo tackles and 4 stops on 22 run snaps, 1 quarterback pressure on 8 blitzes

MLB Rolando McClain: Allowed 1 completion for 4 yards on 1 attempt, 4 solo tackles, 3 assists, 4 stops on 22 run snaps, 2 quarterback pressures on 6 blitzes

Duds

RT Khalif Barnes: Allowed 1 sack and 4 quarterback pressures on 54 pass block snaps, run blocked for 1 yard on 1 attempt

LG Cooper Carlisle: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback pressures on 54 pass block snaps, run blocked for 12 yards on 5 attempts

RG Mike Brisiel: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback pressures on 54 pass block snaps, run blocked for 0 yards on 1 attempt

WR Rod Streater: 4 catches for 27 yards and a touchdown on 9 targets, 1 drop

CB Ronald Bartell: Allowed 4 catches for 73 yards on 4 attempts, 3 solo tackles and 1 missed tackle on 6 run snaps

DT Tommy Kelly: 0 sacks, quarterback hits, or quarterback pressures on 26 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles and 3 stops on 18 run snaps, 2 penalties

MLB Travis Goethel: 2 fumbled snaps, 1 missed tackle on special teams

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Raiders’ Rolando McClain does not expect to be suspended

stevenlourie News, Raiders

Rolando McClain is a talented young middle linebacker. The 2010 1st round pick, 8th overall, was ProFootballFocus’ 26th rated middle linebacker last season and would have been much higher rated if he didn’t struggle so much in coverage. Still only heading into his age 23 season, he’s got a ton of upside, but he’s also got a major cloud hanging over his head with his legal troubles.

McClain was sentenced to 6 months in jail on 3rd degree assault with a deadly weapon charges in May, after holding a loaded gun to another man’s head and firing a shot past his ear last year. However, he has appealed the charges, so he will not have to serve time just yet and may get a reduced sentence or even get the sentence dropped completely. According to the Contra Costa Times, McClain has not heard anything about a possible suspension from the NFL and he’s taking no news as good news and rightfully so. It appears the NFL is waiting to see the results of the appeal before making any decision on discipline.

Still, it’s a concerning situation for McClain and the Raiders, even though GM Reggie McKenzie says he’s “comfortable” with McClain. Once McClain’s appeal is over, he could very well have to serve jail time and that could be in the middle of the season. After that, he could be given a suspension by the league, even if he is able to serve his jail time in the offseason, as players have been able to do in the past. My money would be on McClain not playing all 16 games.

Any time he misses would hurt the Raiders defense, obviously, as inexperienced 2010 6th round pick Travis Goethel would have to step in for him. The Raiders are already missing their top cornerback and top pass rusher from a defense that ranked 29th in scoring last year. They weren’t replaced. Also missing is starter Aaron Curry with injury, forcing 4th round rookie Miles Burris into the lineup for him, while defensive tackles Richard Seymour and Tommy Kelly are heading into their age 33 seasons, with the former suffering from knee problems. It should be a tough year for the Raiders on that side of the football.

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Raiders expect Denarius Moore to be a game time decision

stevenlourie News, Raiders

Denarius Moore missed most of the preseason and Training Camp with hamstring problems, despite initially suffering the injury in June, and now it sounds like he’ll be a game time decision. If he doesn’t start, undrafted free agent Rod Streater, an offseason standout, would start as Jacoby Ford is also out with a foot injury. The problem for Moore owners in fantasy football is that this game is on Monday Night, so if you put him in your lineup, your options to replace him before the game will be very limited.

It’s not worth starting him unless you also own one of the two San Diego receivers (Malcom Floyd and Robert Meachem) or teammate Darrius Heyward-Bey. As good as Streater was this preseason, he’s still not a true handcuff for Moore. Even if I did own one of those players, I still probably wouldn’t start Moore because hamstring problems tend to linger and can limit your abilities noticable, even if you do play, especially for a speed receiver like Moore.

Moore is incredibly talented. In 6 healthy games with Carson Palmer last year, not including the Kansas City game where Palmer played but didn’t start, Moore caught 19 passes for 406 yards and 3 touchdowns, good for 51 catches for 1083 yards and 8 touchdowns over 16 games and that was as a 5th round rookie. However, he missed 3 games with injury last year and now this. On top of those injuries, he needs to become more consistent on a game to game basis. Still, all the tools are there for him.

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San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Chargers, Raiders

San Diego Chargers (0-0) at Oakland Raiders (0-0)

Buy tickets for this game

I have the Raiders as one of my overrated teams. The Raiders’ Pythagorean Expectation last year suggested they should have won 6 games, not 8, as they went 7-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less, the most wins of that kind of any team last season. The Raiders also lost their top cornerback Stanford Routt and their top pass rusher Kamerion Wimbley in free agency. If that’s not enough, starting linebacker Aaron Curry could be out for the year and will be replaced in the starting lineup by a 4th round rookie and defensive tackles Tommy Kelly and Richard Seymour are both going into their age 33 seasons, with the latter already dealing with a bad knee. They had the league’s 29th ranked scoring defense last year, allowing 27.1 points per game and could be the league’s worst scoring defense this year. Carson Palmer and the playmakers on offense can make some plays, but they’ll also commit a lot of turnovers and it won’t be enough to offset the defense’s play.

The idea behind identifying overrated and underrated teams was to be one step ahead of the odds makers and essentially blindly bet against the overrated teams and on the underrated teams until the odds makers caught up or the teams proved me wrong. However, I’m just not that comfortable betting on the Chargers here. They’re incredibly banged up offensively. They’ll be without top running back Ryan Matthews, leaving decrepit running back Ronnie Brown to start, in his age 31 season, after averaging 3.2 YPC last year.

They’re also without Vincent Brown, their best receiver in Training Camp before his injury, leaving Philip Rivers with the overpaid Robert Meachem, who has a career high 45 catches despite playing 4 years with Drew Brees, and Malcom Floyd, an inconsistent receiver in his age 31 season who has caught 3 or fewer passes in 14 of his last 23 games, missing 9 games over the past 2 years. Antonio Gates will be his favorite target, unless the 32 year old, who has also missed 9 games over the past 2 years, gets hurt.

Finally, they’ll be without left tackle Jared Gaither, leaving undrafted rookie Mike Harris to start on the blindside on a line already with major weaknesses at left guard and right tackle. Philip Rivers is an elite quarterback who should bounce back from a down year last year (he had 14 touchdowns to 6 interceptions in his final 8 games, a sign of a turnaround) and he’s done well with limited help in the past before, but this might just be asking too much of him.

There’s also the issue of the Chargers’ early season struggles, especially on the road. Prior to last year, when the Chargers went 4-1 early against a cupcake schedule, the Chargers were 14-12 from weeks 1-6 under Philip Rivers and 41-11 (41-11!!!) from weeks 6-17. Including last year, they’re actually 2-9 ATS on the road during the first 4 weeks of the season in the Philip Rivers era. The Raiders crowd will be amped up getting a Monday Night Football home game, a rarity for a franchise that has had a rough past decade or so (9 straight years without the playoffs).

All that being said, I’m taking the Chargers. I’m just not particularly confident about it. The Chargers were able to beat up on a cupcake schedule last year early, beating Minnesota by 7, Kansas City by 3, Miami by 10, and Denver (prebow) by 5. That’s not particularly impressive, but all the Chargers need to do is win here as small underdogs and I think they should be able to do that against an opponent who, like their early opponents last year, isn’t very good. Rather than putting 1 unit on the spread and 1 on the money line, I’m putting 2 on the money line because 1 point games are rare. It’s not worth the extra -15 juice to get the +1.

San Diego Chargers 31 Oakland Raiders 24 (+105) 2 units

Pick against spread: San Diego +1 (-110) 0 units

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