Raiders

Las Vegas Raiders at Dallas Cowboys: 2021 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Las Vegas Raiders (5-5) at Dallas Cowboys (7-3)

In non-divisional Thursday games like this, typically a home favorite is at a significant advantage. It’s very tough for an inferior team to go on the road on a short week and play a superior team that is not in their division that they don’t have familiarity with and, as a result, non-divisional road underdogs cover at a 65.0% rate on Thursday when both teams are on short rest. That would seem to favor the Cowboys, who are 7.5-point home favorites over the Raiders, but that line is too high, so I can’t bet them confidently. 

This line was just a touchdown a week ago, which is a bigger shift than you might think, as about 1 in 10 games are decided by exactly seven points. That’s despite the fact that the Cowboys lost and failed to cover against the Chiefs. The Cowboys are healthier than they were a week ago, with left tackle Tyron Smith set to return from a 2-game absence and CeeDee Lamb, who missed most of the loss to the Chiefs, likely to join him, but Lamb was expected to be healthy a week ago and this line movement seems to mostly be the result of the Raiders’ big home loss to the Bengals last week.

That result did not look good for the Raiders on the scoreboard, as they lost at home by 19, but they actually won the yards per play battle by 1.8 yards per play. The final score was largely the result of the Raiders losing the turnover battle and converting just 1 of 7 third downs, but third down conversion rates and turnover margins tend to be highly inconsistent and non-predictive on a week-to-week basis, especially compared to things like yards per play and first down rate. 

The Raiders have a negative point differential (-39) on the season at 5-5, but they have a much bigger than average disparity between their 1st/2nd and 3rd/4th down performance on both sides of the ball, which should even out in the long run. In terms of overall efficiency (based on yards per play and first down rate), the Raiders rank 19th, 7th, and 25th on offense, defense, and special teams respectively. The Cowboys, meanwhile, rank 3rd, 18th, and 21st. 

The Cowboys’ offense is mostly healthy, but their defense is worse than that suggests right now, with their two best edge defenders, DeMarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory, both out with injuries, a big absence. Given that, they don’t deserve to be more than touchdown favorites against a decent at worst Raiders team. My calculated line has the Cowboys favored by 5.5 and, while that doesn’t take into account that the Cowboys are in a great spot, I have a hard time justifying this line. The Raiders aren’t worth betting on either, but they should be the better side in this one from a spread perspective.

Update: CeeDee Lamb will apparently not be playing, as, even though he participated in the walk through yesterday, he will not have enough time to clear the concussion protocol on a short week. I want to bump this confidence up to low confidence before the line moves off 7.5. Having Tyron Smith back healthy will help, but the Cowboys will be without their two top wide receivers in this game, which will obviously effect their offense in a negative way.

Dallas Cowboys 30 Las Vegas Raiders 24

Pick against the spread: Las Vegas +7.5

Confidence: Low

Cincinnati Bengals at Las Vegas Raiders: 2021 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) at Las Vegas Raiders (5-4)

Both of these teams are 5-4, but the Bengals hold a significant edge in point differential, +33 vs. -20. That normally would suggest that the Bengals are the better team, but that doesn’t take into account strength of schedule, which Cincinnati has had among the weakest. In schedule adjusted offensive, defensive, and special teams efficiency, the Raiders rank 18th, 4th, and 26th while the Bengals rank 24th, 15th, and 17th. 

Despite that, the Bengals are favored here in Las Vegas. It’s only by a point, but it comes a week after the Raiders were just 2.5-point home underdogs against the Chiefs, so it’s a bit of a surprising line. The Raiders lost big to the Chiefs last week, but the Chiefs are a much better team than the Bengals and were due for a big game. That loss also puts the Raiders in a good spot this week, as teams tend to bounce back from big home losses as underdogs, covering the spread at a 59.0% rate as home underdogs the week following a loss by 14 points or more as home underdogs. 

The week prior to last, the Raiders lost to the Giants, but the Giants are better than their record, were at home, and the Raiders still won the first down rate and yards per play battle, with the game swinging on the turnover margin, including a pick six, both of which are much less predictive than first down rate and yards per play. The public has noticed that the Raiders have not had good results in their two games without Henry Ruggs, but I don’t think it’s as bad as the final scores have looked and I don’t think Ruggs is as irreplaceable as the general public seems to think he was, so we’re getting some value with the Raiders, who are also in a good spot, back at home after a bad home loss. This isn’t a big play, but the Raiders should be the right side, both as a money line pick and against the spread.

Las Vegas Raiders 24 Cincinnati Bengals 20 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Las Vegas +1

Confidence: Medium

Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders: 2021 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (5-4) at Las Vegas Raiders (5-3)

This game is a tough call. On one hand, the Chiefs have played better than their 5-4 record, while the Raiders have played worse than their 5-3 record. The Chiefs’ biggest issues are they have faced one of the toughest schedules in the league (8th highest opponent’s DVOA), they have had one of the worst turnover margins in the league (2nd worst in the NFL at -9), and they have had one of the worst defenses in the league (31st in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency). 

The Chiefs offense has continued to rank among the best in the league on the season, ranking 2nd in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency, as they also have one of the best special teams (1st in special teams DVOA) and their other issues should resolve themselves going forward, as turnover margins are highly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, the Chiefs’ defense has gotten significantly healthier since earlier this season and has played better in recent weeks as a result, and their schedule eases up relatively going forward. The Raiders, meanwhile, have faced a below average schedule, but they have had to go to overtime to win twice and have just a +7 point differential, while ranking 14th, 4th, and 26th in schedule adjusted efficiency on offense, defense, and special teams respectively. 

However, it seems like the public and the odds makers see things the same way, as the Chiefs are favored by 2.5 points on the road in Las Vegas. Given that, I am actually going to be taking the Raiders in this one, as I am actually a little bit concerned about the Chiefs’ offense, which, even though it ranks among the best in the league in yards per play and first down rate on the season, has slowed down significantly in both metrics over the past few weeks, coinciding with injuries at the running back position and on the offensive line. My calculated line has the Chiefs favored by 1.5, so we’re hardly getting any line value with the Raiders, but they would be my pick for pick ‘em purposes.

Kansas City Chiefs 26 Las Vegas Raiders 24

Pick against the spread: Las Vegas +2.5

Confidence: None

Las Vegas Raiders at New York Giants: 2021 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Las Vegas Raiders (5-2) at New York Giants (2-6)

This game is one of the toughest calls of the week. On one hand, the Raiders are in a good spot coming off of a bye week, as road favorites of more than a field goal cover at a 63.5% rate all time after a bye week, but the Raiders also have a much bigger matchup than this on deck, facing divisional rival Kansas City after this matchup with a last place NFC team. The Raiders also aren’t as good as their 5-2 record, as their schedule has been relatively easy and they have just a +14 point differential, 14th best in the NFL, but that doesn’t mean we are getting good line value with the Giants as just 3.5-point home underdogs. 

The Giants are a better team than their 2-6 record, but right now it’s only marginally so, as they have several key offensive skill position players dealing with injuries, with feature back Saquon Barkley and starting wide receiver Sterling Shepard out and fellow starting wide receiver Kenny Golladay questionable to return from a 3-game absence and very possibly to be limited even if he doesn’t play. We are getting slight line value with the Raiders so they are the pick for pick ’em purposes, but I don’t have any real confidence in them covering this spread.

Las Vegas Raiders 24 New York Giants 20

Pick against the spread: Las Vegas -3.5

Confidence: None

Philadelphia Eagles at Las Vegas Raiders: 2021 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (2-4) at Las Vegas Raiders (4-2)

The Eagles are just 2-4, but they’ve faced a tough schedule. Their losses have all come to above average teams, the 49ers, Cowboys, Chiefs, and Buccaneers, with two of those games being decided by one score or less, while their wins have come against the Panthers and Falcons on the road by a combined 29 points. Those two teams are much more comparable to the Raiders, the Eagles’ opponents this week, than any of the teams the Eagles have lost to. 

The Eagles’ defense has especially faced a tough schedule, as the Chiefs, Cowboys, and Buccaneers are all in the top-3 in schedule adjusted first down rate, and the Eagles held up all things considered, holding those three teams well below their collective season average and leading the league by allowing 1.24 yards per play less than expected. They’re probably not going to be the best defense in the league by this metric all season, but this is a much better defense than they’ve been given credit for if you take into account who they’ve played.

The Eagles’ offense has not been nearly as good, ranking 27th in schedule adjusted first down rate, but their offensive line is a lot healthier now than it’s been, getting left tackle Jordan Mailata back from a 2-game absence in week 5 and now getting right tackle Lane Johnson back from a 3-game absence this week, the first time the Eagles have had their two tackles together since week 2. The Eagles are still missing their starting guards Brandon Brooks and Isaac Seumalo, but they’ve gotten good play from their replacements and should overall have a strong offensive line with Johnson returning this week. 

In their current state, I have them 2.5 points better than the Raiders, suggesting this line should be about even, with the Raiders getting about 2.5 points for homefield advantage. The Raiders have a better record at 4-2, but their victories haven’t been all that impressive, with none coming by more than 10 points and two coming in overtime, despite an underwhelming strength of victory that includes a mediocre Steelers team, a terrible Dolphins team, a banged up Broncos team, and a Ravens team that was travelling cross country for a night game in the Raiders home opener. 

Meanwhile, the Raiders’ two losses have each come by double digits, including a home loss to an underwhelming Bears team and the Chargers’ only multi-score win of the season. In hindsight I wish I had picked the Browns on Thursday Night Football as my Pick of the Week because I liked that matchup more than anything this weekend, but I didn’t know that at the time, so I am taking this as my Pick of the Week. The Eagles have a good chance to pull this straight up upset and even if they don’t, we get protection from a field goal loss.

Update: I am glad I locked this in because Darren Waller might not play and this line dropped to 2. I would still like the Eagles at a lot at +2, assuming Waller doesn’t play, but this is an afternoon game, so the line and the injury report need to be monitored before locking in a bet if you didn’t get this at +3.

Philadelphia Eagles 19 Las Vegas Raiders 17 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos: 2021 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Las Vegas Raiders (3-2) at Denver Broncos (3-2)

In a normal situation, I would like the Raiders a lot this week, as 4-point underdogs in Denver. The Broncos got out to an 3-0 start, beating an easy schedule, but also winning by an average of 16.7 points. However, they have lost a lot of players to injury as the season has gone on and haven’t been the same team in back-to-back losses to the Ravens and Steelers. Most notably, wide receivers Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler, edge defender Bradley Chubb, and inside linebacker Josey Jewell have all gone down since the start of the season. 

The Raiders have also lost back-to-back games since a 3-0 start, but they don’t have as many key players missing due to injury and have the slight edge in my roster rankings overall, despite this line suggesting that the Broncos are the better of the two teams. The Broncos are also in a tough spot as they have to turn around and play a tougher game on a short week next week and favorites cover at just a 41.9% rate all-time before Thursday Night Football.

However, this is not a normal situation, with Raiders head coach Jon Gruden resigning mid-week. This is not the first time a team has gone to an interim head coach mid-season, but this is really an unprecedented situation. Some teams find success after going to an interim head coach mid-season, but that typically happens when the previous head coach was ineffective and/or disliked, which was not the case for Jon Gruden up until the revelations of the past week made him incapable of leading this locker room.

Gruden was just 22-31 with the Raiders, but usually got the most out of an underwhelming roster and most notably led the Raiders to a 17-10 record in one score games. Gruden’s roster management decisions have been questionable at best, but the Raiders undoubtedly have a worse head coaching situation now than they did a couple weeks ago. We may see a better effort from the Raiders this week than they had last week against the Bears, when the Gruden situation was likely a distraction, but I don’t want to bet on it, even if we are getting good line value. The Raiders are the pick for pick ‘em purposes, but aren’t bettable given the uncertainty over how they will respond.

Denver Broncos 19 Las Vegas Raiders 17

Pick against the spread: Las Vegas +4

Confidence: Low

Chicago Bears at Las Vegas Raiders: 2021 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (2-2) at Las Vegas Raiders (3-1)

The Bears are 2-2, but one of their wins came against the awful Detroit Lions, while their other win came by just 3 points over the Bengals in a game in which they won the turnover battle by 3, but lost the yards per play battle by 1.22, which is much more predictive. Meanwhile, their two losses were not at all close. Their once dominant defense has been middling at best, thanks to several off-seasons of significant departures, along with some injury absences, but the biggest problem by far has been their offense, which ranks 29th in the NFL in first down rate. 

I expected the Bears’ offense to struggle mightily coming into the season and for their defense to not be nearly good enough to compensate and so far that has proven true, even if they have managed to go 2-2. It’s possible the switch to Justin Fields under center instead of Andy Dalton will provide a spark for this offense, but that’s far from a guarantee and hasn’t really proven to be true yet. On top of that, the Bears’ offensive issues go far beyond the quarterback position, most notably their issues on the offensive line and at running back, where the Bears are now without their top-2 expected running backs with David Montgomery out indefinitely. 

The Raiders haven’t been as good as their early record either, but they’re clearly the better of these two teams, as the Bears rank as the 5th worst team in my roster rankings, 7 points below average, where the Raiders are slightly above average overall. The Raiders’ offensive line and running game aren’t nearly as good as they have been in recent years, but Derek Carr is throwing to an improved group of young receivers and their defense has taken a big step forward, in large part due to a dominant pass rush, led by free agent acquisition Yannick Ngakoue. My calculated line has the Raiders favored by 10 in this matchup, so we’re getting enough line value at -5.5 for the Raiders to be worth a small play this week.

Las Vegas Raiders 24 Chicago Bears 13

Pick against the spread: Las Vegas -5.5

Confidence: Medium

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Las Vegas Raiders (3-0) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-1)

The Chargers pulled a big upset win over the Chiefs last week, but they needed to win the turnover battle by 4 to do so, which is not predictive week-to-week. In more predictive metrics, the Chargers had a -7.92% first down rate differential. The Chargers were already overrated going into that game as they have just two wins by multiple scores in their past nine wins and they came against the 1-15 Jaguars and the Chiefs’ backups, but now the Chargers are more overrated.

The Raiders are not as good as their 3-0 record, as the Steelers and Dolphins are below average opponents, while their win over the Ravens came in overtime in a game in which they had a big advantage as a pacific time zone home team in a night game, in their first game in Las Vegas in front of fans. However, they are still about a point better than the Chargers in my roster rankings and the Chargers should only get about a point for homefield advantage anyway, perhaps less against the Raiders, who have a large fanbase in Los Angeles. The Chargers could also be a little flat after last week’s upset win as favorites are 32-47 ATS since 1989 after a divisional win as touchdown underdogs or more. There is a good chance the Raiders are able to win this one outright and if not, I like getting a field goal of protection in case they lose.

Las Vegas Raiders 23 Los Angeles Chargers 20 Upset Pick +145

Pick against the spread: Las Vegas +3

Confidence: High

Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders: 2021 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (1-1) at Las Vegas Raiders (2-0)

This one is a tough call. On one hand, the Dolphins are still a little overrated even after last week’s 35-0 home loss to the Bills, as they would be 0-2 right now if not for recovering a pair of fumbles in a 1-point win over the Patriots. Fumble recoveries are highly non-predictive week-to-week and in more predictive metrics the Dolphins were clearly worse than the Patriots, losing in first down rate (33.33% vs. 30.77%) and yards per play (5.61 vs. 4.98) by significant margins. The Dolphins won 10 games a year ago, but they faced a very easy schedule and they benefited from an unsustainably high turnover margin (+11), opponent’s field goal percentage (3rd lowest at 73.91%) and 3rd/4th down conversion rate allowed (33.02%), actually lower than the 34.07% conversion rate they allowed on 1st/2nd down (4th highest in the NFL). 

The Raiders are a bit of an overrated 2-0, beating the Ravens in overtime a great spot, in their first game in Las Vegas in front of fans, against an east coast team that had to travel cross country for a night game, and then turning around and beating a Steelers team that was missing several key players due to injury, but they should still be favored by more than 3.5 points at home over the Dolphins. The Raiders’ offense isn’t as good this year after downgrading their offensive line this off-season, but their defense has improved significantly and they are at least a middle of the pack team, which I think is more than can be said about the Dolphins, especially with backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett under center.

However, this is a tough spot for the Raiders, who are already 2-0 and have a nationally televised game against the Chargers on deck, after this game against a Dolphins team starting a backup quarterback and coming off of a blowout loss. They could easily overlook the Dolphins and teams tend to cover after blowout losses in general, going 68-39 ATS since 2002 after losing by 35 points or more. I’m still taking the Raiders for pick ‘em purposes because of the significant line value we are getting with them (my calculated line is Las Vegas -6.5), but I am not at all confident in them in this spot.

Las Vegas Raiders 20 Miami Dolphins 16

Pick against the spread: Las Vegas -3.5

Confidence: None

Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2021 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Las Vegas Raiders (1-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0)

Both of these teams pulled upset wins in week one, the Steelers winning as 6.5-point underdogs in Buffalo and the Raiders winning as 4-point home underdogs against the Ravens. The Raiders’ upset was less surprising, as they had the clear emotional edge at night, against an east coast team that travelled cross country, in their first game with fans in the building since moving to Las Vegas, and that emotional edge could swing the other way this week, leading to the Raiders being much flatter for this trip cross country to Pittsburgh.

That being said, this line still overrates the Steelers, favoring them by 6.5 points. I get the feeling that their win over the Bills was more about the Bills being worse than expected than it was about the Steelers being better than expected. Their defense remains dominant, but it was a concerning performance for their offense, which looks likely to be held back by inconsistent offensive line and quarterback play all season and defensive play tends to be less consistent week-to-week than offensive play. It’s hard to back a team like that against a capable opponent when favored by this many points. The Steelers should win, but I would pick the Raiders for pick ‘em purposes, even if they are not likely to be as emotionally charged as a week ago.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Las Vegas Raiders 13

Pick against the spread: Las Vegas +6.5

Confidence: Low