Rams

Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers: 2025 NFC Wild Card Round Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (12-5) at Carolina Panthers (8-9)

The Panthers beat the Rams in Carolina a few weeks ago, but the Rams dominated the first down rate battle (+14.89%) and the yards per play battle (+1.66), which are much more predictive. The game, which the Panthers won by 3, legitimately swung on five plays that benefited the Panthers by a margin of 27 points, an interception touchdown, two touchdowns on fourth downs, and two Rams turnovers in field goal range. If just 2 or 3 of those plays had gone the other way, not only would the Rams have won, but they could have won by multiple scores. It seems unlikely things will play out the same way a second time.

Most of the Rams’ five losses this season have gone this way. They won the first down rate battle by +3.61% and the yards per play battle by +0.82 in a 7-point loss to the Eagles in which the Rams’ special teams cost them 12 points with a pair of blocked field goals, one of which was returned for a touchdown. They won the first down rate battle by +7.94% and the yards per play battle by +2.22 in a 3-point overtime loss to the 49ers in which they lost the turnover battle by two, missed a field goal, and failed on a fourth down at the end of the game. 

The Rams’ only losses this season in which they lost the first down rate battle were their losses to the Seahawks and Falcons, but the Rams were without multiple key players due to injury in those games, including wide receiver Davante Adams and safety Quentin Lake, both of whom will play this week. Meanwhile, in the Rams’ twelve wins, they won by double digits eight times, relevant considering this line is -10.

The Rams finished the season first by a wide margin in schedule adjusted efficiency, which is based on first down rate and yards per play differential. The Rams were about 1.7 points better than any other team, and they are healthier now than they have been the past few weeks. Meanwhile, the Panthers finished about 13.2 points behind the Rams in schedule adjusted efficiency, ranking 26th in the NFL. Not only did they finish at 8-9, worst among playoff qualifiers, but were outscored by double digits in six of their nine losses.

This line might seem high at -10, but favorites of 9.5+ are 12-2 ATS in the first round of the playoffs, as big lines in the post-season tend to be justified. That alone isn’t a reason to bet on the Rams, but it is definitely a reason not to be afraid of how high this line is. Additionally, favorites are 27-17 ATS in a post-season rematch against a non-divisional opponent who they lost to as favorites in the regular season, as upsets tend to be flukes. Again, that alone is not a reason to bet on the Rams, but it is a reason not to put much, if any stock into the fact that the Panthers won the first matchup between these two teams. The Rams being on the road is also not a reason to be concerned about them, as they have one of the worst homefield advantages in the league and, as a result, are 47-38 ATS on the road since moving to Los Angeles in 2016. I like the Rams a lot this week.

Los Angeles Rams 34 Carolina Panthers 17

Pick against the spread: LA Rams -10

Confidence: High

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks: 2025 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (11-3) at Seattle Seahawks (11-3)

Both of these teams are 11-3, but the Rams have a significant edge in first down rate differential, +7.71% vs +5.54%, which is much more predictive than win/loss record. The Seahawks have a slight edge in yards per play differential, +1.51 vs. +1.23, but first down rate differential is more predictive. The Rams have also faced a tougher schedule overall and, in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which weights first down rate differential higher than yards per play differential, the Rams have about a 4 point edge over the Seahawks.

The Rams are on the road in this game, but they have limited homefield advantage in Los Angeles anyway and, as a result, have consistently outperformed the spread on the road since relocating in 2017, going 46-37 with a +1.4 per game differential against the spread. I like the Rams for at least a small bet in this game, with the Rams just needing to win to cover the spread. Depending on whether or not questionable players play (wide receiver Davante Adams and interior defender Braden Fiske for the Rams, and left tackle Charles Cross for the Seahawks), I would consider increasing this bet.

Update: Charles Cross has been ruled out for the Seahawks, which is a huge loss for their offense. Despite that, this line has shifted to +1.5. I like the money line more than the spread, but this is a high confidence pick either way. Davante Adams is likely to be out for the Rams, but I was being conservative with my original pick and factoring his absence into the equation and not Cross’ absence. I am also considering this for Pick of the Week.

Final Update: After further consideration of this weekend’s games, this is my Pick of the Week at +1.5.

Los Angeles Rams 27 Seattle Seahawks 23 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: LA Rams +1.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers: 2025 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (10-2) at Carolina Panthers (6-6)

The Rams are currently the slight Super Bowl favorite, but they actually may still be a little underrated, as I think they are clearly the best team in the league. They rank 3rd in yards per play differential (+1.05), 1st in first down rate differential (+6.22%) and 1st in my schedule adjusted efficiency rank. My roster rankings have them as even better than that, ranking them close to 3 full points above any other team in the league. 

They are favored by 10 points on the road in Carolina, but this line should be even higher, especially considering the Panthers are missing two of their top-3 cornerbacks, a starting safety, two of their top-3 linebackers, and a pair of starting offensive linemen due to injuries and suspension. My calculated line is Rams -13.5, giving us enough line value for the Rams to be worth betting at -10. This isn’t a big play, but the Rams are 8-3 ATS this season and I think there is still some line value with them. They should be able to get their 7th double digit victory of the season.

Update: Some -9.5s have showed up this morning. I would do a bigger bet at that number.

Los Angeles Rams 27 Carolina Panthers 13

Pick against the spread: LA Rams -9.5

Confidence: High

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams: 2025 Week 5 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (3-1) at Los Angeles Rams (3-1)

The Rams are 3-1, but they could be 4-0 if not for special teams miscues against the Eagles. Even with that loss taken into account, I would argue the Rams are right behind the undefeated Eagles and Bills as the third best team in the league. They lead the league in yards per play differential at +1.42 and rank 4th in first down rate differential at +4.17%. The 49ers are also 3-1 and rank 6th in yards per play differential at +0.96 and 2nd in first down rate differential at +4.85%, but they have faced a much easier schedule than the Rams.

The 49ers also come into this game much more depleted than the 49ers. Somehow the 49ers will be without their top-3 wide receivers Ricky Pearsall, Jauan Jennings, and Brandon Aiyuk, their top tight end George Kittle, their starting quarterback Brock Purdy, starting left guard Ben Bartch, top edge defender Nick Bosa, and starting safety Malik Mustapha. The Rams, on the other hand, will only be missing one key player, right tackle Rob Havenstein. That gives the Rams a significant 9-point edge in my roster rankings. 

Making matters especially tough for the 49ers is that they will have to travel on a short week with so many replacement players in the lineup. Short weeks almost always favor a significantly better team at home, even in matchups between familiar division opponents. Divisional home favorites of a touchdown or more are 30-6 straight up on Thursday Night Football, as long as both teams are on short rest, winning by an average margin of 12.3 points per game and covering at a 58.3% rate. This spread opened at 3.5 and slowly crept up to 7 as bad injury news came out for the 49ers, but I don’t think the line has been moved high enough, as sportsbooks are wary of creating too big of a middle by moving this line up too high. Let’s take advantage of that with a Thursday Night Football Pick of the Week.

Week 5 Early Locked Picks: IND -6.5, DET -10

Los Angeles Rams 30 San Francisco 49ers 17

Pick against the spread: LA Rams -7

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Los Angeles Rams 2025 NFL Season Preview

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Quarterback

The Rams were at something of a crossroads at the quarterback position this off-season. With 2 years and 58 million left on his contract, none of which was guaranteed, Rams quarterback Matt Stafford wanted a contract adjustment and was willing to entertain a trade if he didn’t get what he wanted. Stafford reportedly had offers from the Giants and Raiders for significant pay raises and, while neither of those teams gave Stafford the comfortability and winning potential that the Rams did, they did give Stafford intriguing alternatives to consider. 

With Stafford set to go into his age 37, the Rams were hesitant to make significant long-term commitments to Stafford, but didn’t have a good alternative. Backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is one of the better and more accomplished backups in the league, with a career 97.6 QB rating in 64 starts, but he is also getting up there in age, heading into his age 34 season, and would have given the Rams a lower ceiling as a team, while being significantly more injury prone, as compared to Stafford. They could have gone with Garoppolo as a cheaper bridge option to a quarterback they would draft, but the draft was weak at the quarterback position this year, making this an inopportune time to need to draft a young quarterback.

In the end, the Rams probably did the best they could with the situation. They kept Stafford by giving him a raise over the next two years, without having to match the reported 50+ million per year the Giants and Raiders were willing to pay Stafford and without making any commitments to Stafford beyond his age 38 season in 2026, upping his total salary over the next two season from 58 million to 84 million and mostly guaranteeing it all. 

In the draft, the Rams traded out of the first round and got an extra first round pick in 2026 for doing so, giving them a pair of first round picks in a much better quarterback draft next off-season. The plan may be to draft Stafford’s successor next year, with Stafford having one year left on his contract, or potentially even to trade Stafford next otf-season if needed and go with a combination of Garoppolo and a rookie in 2025 instead.

For now Stafford remains as the starter with Garoppolo as the backup. Stafford completed 65.8% of his passes for an average of 7.28 YPA, 20 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions last season, while receiving a 74.7 PFF grade, 21st among quarterbacks. However, that was actually his worst PFF grade in a healthy season since 2015, so it’s possible he is starting to decline and could decline further in 2025. I wouldn’t expect him to totally fall off in 2025, but his best days may be behind him at this point. Still, with Stafford and Garoppolo, this is a better quarterback room than a lot of other teams have. 

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

One concern with Stafford, in addition to his age, is that his cap hit will be 17.00% of the cap in 2025 and is projected to be 15.72% of the cap in 2026. Those would be the 2nd and 4th highest cap hit percentages of any quarterback to win the Super Bowl in the salary cap era, as having a high cap hit makes it significantly harder to fill out the rest of your roster with enough talent for a team to go all the way. At this stage of his career, Stafford probably needs a great roster around him to compete at the highest level. Fortunately, the Rams have done a great job finding talent through the draft in recent years, allowing them to keep the cost of the rest of this roster down, while still remaining competitive. 

What makes the Rams’ strong drafting in recent years even more impressive is the fact that they’ve had just one first round pick and four top-50 picks in their past nine drafts, as a result of trades down and aggressive trades for veterans, many of whom are no longer on the roster. One of their many draft steals outside of the top-50 and arguably the best of the bunch is Puka Nacua, who has developed into one of the best wide receivers in the league, despite only being drafted in the 5th round in 2023. 

Nacua finished his rookie season as PFF’s 10th ranked wide receiver with a 87.9 PFF grade and had a 105/1486/6 slash line with 2.59 yards per route run. In 2024, his PFF grade went up to 92.8, 1st in the league among wide receivers, and his yards per route run went up to 3.56, first in the league among wide receivers by a wide margin, with the second ranked AJ Brown averaging 2.99 yards per route run. Nacua’s overall production fell to 79/990/3 in 2024, but that was because he missed six games with injury. His per 17 game numbers were 122/1530/5, which would have exceeded his rookie year numbers. Still only in his age 24 season, Nacua has the potential to lead the league in receiving in 2025 if he can stay healthy for the whole season.

The Rams also might have upgraded opposite Nacua as well. Cooper Kupp was once one of the best wide receivers in the league, but age and injury had slowed him in recent years, leading to him having just a 67/710/6 slash line with 1.99 yards per route run in 12 games last season, which led to the Rams releasing him ahead of a 20 million non-guaranteed salary for his age 32 season in 2025 and then giving that money to Davante Adams, who signed on a 2-year, 44 million dollar deal.

Adams is actually older than Kupp, going into his age 33 season, so he comes with some risk, but he doesn’t have Kupp’s injury history, missing just three games in the past four seasons, and he was the better of the two receivers last season, finishing with a 85/1063/8 slash line in 14 games and averaging 2.04 yards per route run. It’s reasonable to expect some decline from him in 2025, but the Rams don’t need him to be a #1 receiver and, as far as #2 receivers go, he should be an above average one, barring a massive decline. 

The Rams will probably have an upgrade at the #3 receiver spot as well. They didn’t add anyone, but they let go of DeMarcus Robinson, which should be addition by subtraction, as he averaged just 0.99 yards per route run last season and will be replaced primarily by Tutu Atwell, who averaged 2.19 yards per route run in a limited role last season. Atwell probably won’t carry that efficiency into a larger role and he only has a 1.60 yards per route run average in his career, but the 2021 2nd round pick has always had talent and is only going into his age 26 season, so it shouldn’t be hard for him to be more efficient than Robinson. The Rams also have Jordan Whittington, who was even more efficient (2.50 yards per route run), albeit in an even smaller role last season as a 6th round rookie. He probably will have a significantly smaller role than Atwell this season, but he figures to rotate in from time to time and has a lot of upside as far as #4 receivers go.

The tight end position was not a big part of this offense last season, as they targeted tight ends on just 15.3% of targets, 5th fewest in the league, as opposed to the wide receiver position, which received a league leading 74.5% of targets. That will likely remain the case again in 2025, though that has more to do with their talent at wide receiver than their lack of talent at the tight end position. Colby Parkinson struggled with 0.98 yards per route run last season as their primary tight end and he only has a career 1.13 yards per route run average, but he was only starting because Tyler Higbee missed most of the season with injury, limited to three games.

Higbee, who has a career 1.36 yards per route run average, including 1.89 yards per route run in very limited action last season, should be healthier this season. Higbee’s age is a concern, going into his age 32 season, but the Rams used their 2nd round pick on Terrance Ferguson to compensate for Higbee’s aging. The Rams rarely use two tight end sets, but Higbee and Ferguson figure to both see action, potentially splitting the starters’ snaps. With Higbee back and Ferguson being added, Parkinson could easily be relegated to the #3 tight end spot, which would mean he would play very little. With Puka Nacua likely to be healthier, Davante Adams likely being an upgrade over Cooper Kupp, DeMarcus Robinson’s absence being addition by subtraction, the addition of Terrance Ferguson, and a likely healthier season from Tyler Higbee, there is a good chance this receiving corps is significantly better in 2025 than it was in 2024.

Grade: A

Running Backs

Another late round steal the Rams have found in recent years is running back Kyren Williams, a 2022 5th round pick who has been their feature back for the past two seasons, totaling 228 carries in just 12 games in 2023 and then 316 carries (3rd in the NFL) in 16 games last season. Williams was a lot more effective in 2023 though. In 2023 he had a 5.02 yards per carry average, a 3.34 yards per carry average after contact, a 59.6% carry success rate, a 22.4% missed tackle rate, and a 80.3 PFF grade, but in 2024 he had a 4.11 yards per carry average, a 2.72 yards per carry average after contact, a 50.9% carry success rate, a 15.8% missed tackle rate, and a 69.0 PFF grade. 

In 2025, the Rams may try to lessen his workload in hopes of getting Williams back to a higher level of efficiency. They drafted Blake Corum in the 3rd round of last year’s draft to potentially take some of the load off Williams, but he had an underwhelming rookie season, averaging just 3.59 yards per carry across 58 carries with 2.40 yards per carry after contact, a 43.1% carry success rate, and a long run of 12 yards. Corum could be better in his second season in the league though and, if he’s not, the Rams added Jarquez Hunter in the 4th round of this year’s draft to give them added insurance. Both Corum and/or Hunter could cut into Williams’ workload this season to give him more of a breather, which could help him be more efficient. 

Corum and/or Hunter could also cut into Williams’ passing down role, as he’s also played a significant role in passing situations over the past two seasons, but has averaged just 0.58 yards per route run and 4.41 yards per target. Corum averaged 1.81 yards per route run as a rookie, but he only had 7 catches and ran 32 routes, so it’s a very small sample size. Hunter, meanwhile, had 68 catches in his collegiate career, a decent, but unspectacular number. This backfield has potential if they can figure out roles and get Williams back close to his 2023 form, but this group also has some downside if none of their backups develop and Williams doesn’t bounce back.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The Rams also got a steal when they signed Alaric Jackson as an undrafted free agent in 2021. In four seasons in the league, he has finished with PFF grades of 70.2, 64.1, 66.2, and 78.3 in four seasons in the league, while making 29 starts in the past two seasons. Jackson is no longer on his rookie deal, but the Rams got a steal when they re-signed him to a 3-year, 56.3 million dollar deal ahead of free agency this off-season, when he almost definitely would have exceeded the 4-year, 82 million dollar deal that the lesser Dan Moore got if he had hit free agency. Jackson might not quite repeat his career best 2024 campaign in 2025, but he’s been a solid player throughout his career and is still in his prime in his age 27 season. 

Right guard Kevin Dotson was originally added via trade, but he too was a steal, as the Rams got him for a swap of late round picks and he has received PFF grades of 85.2 and 81.3 in two seasons with the Rams, while making 30 starts. That performance hasn’t come completely out of nowhere, as he had PFF grades of 66.2, 64.5, and 65.4 in three seasons with the Steelers before joining the Rams, but he has obviously taken his game to another level since being traded. He was kept as a free agent last off-season on a 3-year, 48 million dollar deal that will be a steal if he continues performing at the same level. Still in his prime in his age 29 season, I would expect that to happen for at least one more season.

One mistake the Rams made on the offensive line was signing Jonah Jackson to a 3-year, 52.5 million dollar deal last off-season. Jackson missed significant time with injury in 2024, then got moved to center upon his return, and subsequently benched, playing just four games in total. However, the Rams were able to trade him and get out of the rest of his contract, so even that mistake didn’t hurt them very much. Steve Avila, a 2023 2nd round pick who was originally supposed to move from guard to center to accommodate Jackson, never actually saw any regular season action at center and had a 67.1 PFF grade in 10 starts at guard (7 games missed due to injury) last season, after a 61.1 PFF grade in 17 starts at guard as a rookie. Now going into his third season in the league, Avila looks likely to remain at guard long-term and could have his best season yet in 2025 if he can stay healthy.

With Avila sticking at guard, the Rams needed to find an upgrade at center after 2024 6th round pick Beaux Limmer had a 57.6 PFF grade in 14 starts last season. They did that by reuniting with Coleman Shelton, who spent 2019-2023 with the Rams. Shelton only finished above 60 on PFF in one of those seasons, but it was his final season in 2023 (64.5), when he made a then career high 17 starts and he repeated that season again in 2024 with the Bears, when he had a 66.4 PFF grade across 17 starts, earning a 2-year, 12 million dollar deal to return to the Rams. Shelton doesn’t have a high upside and is going into his age 30 season, but he could remain a decent starter and it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Limmer, who will now be a reserve.

Rob Havenstein rounds out the offensive line at right tackle, entering his 11th season with the Rams at that spot. Havenstein has made 141 starts in 10 seasons, while finishing above 70 on PFF in eight of those seasons, including five straight, but he is heading into his age 33 season and could decline in 2024, perhaps significantly. The Rams’ depth is also a concern, with Limmer as the top reserve center, Justin Dedich as their top reserve guard and David Quessenberry as their top reserve tackle. Dedich is a 2024 undrafted free agent who had a 56.6 PFF grade across three starts as a rookie, while Quessenberry has 30 career starts, including 17 in 2021 when he had a 80.7 PFF grade, but he fell to a 58.4 PFF grade across 110 snaps last season and now is in his age 35 season. This is a talented offensive line overall, but it’s not without concerns.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned, the Rams have had just one first round pick in the past nine drafts, as a result of trades for veterans and trades down for more picks. The Rams made that one first round pick count though, taking Jared Verse with the 19th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Verse finished his rookie year with a 86.2 PFF grade, 9th among edge defenders, playing the run well and especially excelling as a pass rusher, only totaling 4.5 sacks, but adding 16 hits, and a 15.9% pressure rate, en route to winning Defensive Rookie of the Year. It’s possible he’s not quite as efficient pressuring the quarterback again in 2025 because development isn’t always linear, but his sack total should go up and his ceiling is sky high. It’s likely he will develop into one of the best edge defenders in the league for years to come, while contending for Defensive Player of the Year awards, even if he does happen to take a step back in year two.

The rest of this edge defender position is a concern though. A 2023 3rd round pick, Byron Young had a decent rookie season with a 63.5 PFF grade across 967 snaps, but took a step back in his second season in the league with a 59.9 PFF grade across 844 snaps. He could bounce back in 2025 and could even have his best season yet in his third season in the league, but he is an underwhelming starter, especially given how many snaps the Rams have had him play over the past two seasons.

Young will likely continue playing a heavy snap count, as the Rams don’t have much in the way of depth. Michael Hoecht, their top reserve a year ago, is no longer with the team. He only had a 61.3 PFF grade, but he was the only other Rams edge defender to play more than 100 snaps and he was replaced by a third round pick in Josaiah Stewart, who has more potential long-term, but could struggle in the short-term, especially if he has to play around the same snap count as Hoecht did last season (639 snaps). Other reserve options include Brennan Jackson, a 2024 5th round pick who played 47 snaps as a rookie, and Nick Hampton, a 2023 5th round pick who has played 78 snaps in two seasons in the league. Jared Verse significantly elevates the overall grade of this group, but the rest of this group is a concern.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The Rams also have a pair of promising young interior defenders, 2023 3rd round pick Kobie Turner and 2024 2nd round pick Braden FIske. Turner finished last season with 8 sacks, 3 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate, while Fiske finished with 8.5 sacks, 2 hits, and a 11.8% pressure rate. Fiske struggled against the run, but Turner played well in that aspect as well and finished with a 74.9 PFF grade overall, 18th best among interior defenders. Turner also had an impressive rookie season in 2023, ranking 9th among interior defenders with a 83.8 PFF grade, while totaling 9 sacks, 8 hits, and a 10.1% pressure rate. Turner could easily develop into one of the best interior defenders in the league for years to come, while Fiske could join him if he can improve as a run defender.

The Rams also added to this group this off-season by signing Poona Ford to a 3-year, 27.6 million dollar deal. Ford has finished above 70 on PFF five times in seven seasons in the league, with three seasons over 80, including a 85.1 PFF grade across 604 snaps last season. Ford is at his best against the run, but has also added 11.5 sacks, 29 hits, and a 6.6% pressure rate in 101 career games, including 3 sacks, 7 hits, and a 6.4% pressure rate last season. He is now heading into his age 30 season, but even if he declines somewhat, he should still remain an above average player. He’s essentially replacing Bobby Brown, who was a solid run defender and had a 63.2 PFF grade overall last season, but he only had a 1.4% pressure rate. Ford figures to rotate heavily with Turner and Fiske and adds even more talent to what was already a strong position group.

With Turner, Fiske, and Ford as their top-3 options, the Rams don’t have much need for depth at the interior defender position, but injuries could strike and force their deeper reserves into more significant roles. Desjuan Johnson is a 2023 7th round pick who has played 222 nondescript snaps in two seasons in the league, Tyler Davis is a 2024 6th round pick who was mediocre with a 51.7 PFF grade across 298 snaps as a rookie, while Ty Robinson is a 5th round rookie. They aren’t great options, but this is still a talented group overall because of their top-3.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

Another potential steal the Rams found is Omar Speights, who went undrafted last year, but became a starter in week 8 after Troy Reeder got hurt and he proved to be an immediate upgrade, finishing his rookie season with a 66.8 PFF grade across 419 snaps, as opposed to a 57.9 PFF grade across 372 snaps for Reeder. Speights is still unproven and his rookie season could prove to be a fluke, but he has the potential to be a decent every down starter long-term. Reeder returns and will at least compete for a starting job in 2025, but he has finished below 60 on PFF in four of six seasons in the league, on an average of just 339 snaps per season, and he was only in the starting lineup out of desperation last season, so he’s not guaranteed to get his starting job back and, if he did, he would likely continue struggling, perhaps even more so, now in his age 31 season.

The Rams lost free agent Christian Rozeboom, who led this position with 828 snaps played last season, but he struggled with a 59.0 PFF grade. To replace him, the Rams signed Nate Landman, who figures to compete for a starting job and who would likely be an upgrade. The 2022 undrafted free agent has finished with PFF grades of 72.0 and 65.7 over the past two seasons respectively, over snap counts of 809 and 543 respectively. He is at his best against the run, with PFF grades of 85.4 and 73.9, while finishing below 60 in coverage in both seasons. At the very least, he should play a situational role as a run stopper, but he might end up in a bigger role than that, giving the alternatives. The Rams also used a 5th round pick on Chris Paul, but he figures to be a liability if forced into a significant role as a rookie. This is an underwhelming position group overall, but the Rams at least have some intriguing options. 

Grade: B-

Secondary

The Rams’ secondary remains essentially the same as last season, when they were a decent, but unspectacular group. Cobie Durant was their highest rated cornerback, although largely by default, as he had just a 63.7 PFF grade across 15 starts. A 3rd round pick in 2022, Durant showed potential as a rookie with a 73.3 PFF grade across 281 snaps, but he couldn’t translate that into a larger role in his second season in the league, with a 56.9 PFF grade across 642 snaps, before taking a step forward in his third season in the league in 2024. In 2025, he could continue being decent, but he could also potentially regress.

Darious Williams was the Rams’ other outside cornerback last season and he was mediocre with a 60.0 PFF grade across 11 starts. He’s had a solid career, with six straight seasons of 60 or better on PFF, including three seasons above 70, but last season was the worst of those six seasons and now he’s heading into his age 32 season, so he could continue declining. He did have a 79.5 PFF grade as recently as 2023, so he may have some bounce back potential, but his best days are almost definitely behind him.

In sub packages, safety Quentin Lake would most frequently move to the slot and between the two positions Lake led this secondary with 1,070 snaps played last season. The 2022 6th round pick flashed talent in his first two seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 71.7 and 71.2 across snap counts of 63 and 451 respectively, but he couldn’t translate that to a larger role in 2024, finishing with a decent but underwhelming 62.9 PFF grade in 2024. He’s still relatively young in his age 26 season, so he could have some untapped potential, but most likely his 2025 season will be similar to his 2024 season.

Kamren Curl was the other starting safety. He was solid with a 66.2 PFF grade, which was actually the lowest single season grade of his 5-year career. The 2020 7th round pick has finished in the 60s on PFF in four of five seasons in the league and maxed out at 82.9 in 2022, though that will likely prove to be a fluke. He’s still relatively young in his age 26 season and he should have another solid season, with the potential for more.

When Lake moves to the slot in sub packages, Kamren Kitchens comes in to take his spot at safety. The 2024 3rd round pick had a solid rookie season in a part-time role, finishing with a PFF grade of 67.7 across 514 snaps. He has the potential to take a step forward in his second season in the league in 2025 and, if injuries knock out either of their starters, Kitchens seems prepared to step in and start for an extended period of time if needed. The Rams also have another second year safety, Jaylen McCollough. He had a 62.0 PFF grade across 336 snaps last season, which isn’t bad, but he didn’t play as well as Kitchens and he went undrafted, while Kitchens went in the 3rd round, so McCollough will almost definitely remain behind Kitchens on the depth chart.

At cornerback, the Rams have veteran Ahkello Witherspoon as a depth option, as well as 2022 6th round pick Derion Kendrick, who is coming back from a torn ACL that cost him all of 2024. Witherspoon has finished above 60 on PFF in six of eight seasons in the league, including three seasons above 70, while starting 62 of 90 games played over that stretch. He’s now going into his age 30 season and only had a 61.7 PFF grade across 493 snaps last season, but, as far as reserve options go, he’s a pretty good one. Kendrick, meanwhile, played snap counts of 483 and 857 in 2022 and 2023 before missing last season with injury, but he struggled with PFF grades of 43.7 and 59.8 respectively and now he’s coming off of a major injury, which hurts his projection further. He should be buried on the depth chart and only play in case of emergencies. This is likely to remain a decent, but unspectacular secondary in 2025.

Grade: B

Kicker

The Rams used a 6th round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on a kicker in Joshua Karty. He finished his rookie year slightly below average, costing his team 2.80 points compared to an average kicker. He made 85.3% of his field goals, but had a relatively low level of difficulty on his kicks, attempting just 13 kicks of 40+ yards last season, missing 3 of them, while missing twice from inside 40. He still has a high upside though and could take a step forward in his second season in the league in 2025.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Rams finished last season with a 10-7 record, despite having the 10th most adjusted games lost to injury of any team in the league, including the 6th most adjusted games lost to injury on offense. They should be healthier this season and their schedule looks likely to be easier, but they ranked just 16th in first down rate differential and 22nd in yards per play differential last season, which is more predictive year-to-year than win/loss record. The Rams were a lot better down the stretch once they got fully healthy, but it is unrealistic to expect any team to be fully healthy for a whole season. Additionally, there is the issue of quarterback Matt Stafford’s age, now in his age 37 season, which is around when a lot of quarterbacks suffer significant declines. If that happened, that would obviously have a significant negative effect on this team. The Rams also have by far the toughest schedule of any team in their division.

Prediction: 9-8, 3rd in NFC West

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles: 2024 NFC Divisional Round Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (11-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (15-3)

Both of these teams came into the playoffs much healthier than they were at stretches this season. The Rams almost beat the Lions in Detroit week 1, but lost top wide receiver Puka Nacua in that game and were just 2-4 when he returned to the lineup in week 8. From week 8 on, the Rams won 8 of 10 games, excluding a meaningless week 18 game in which their starters didn’t play. During that 8 wins in 10 games stretch, the Rams had a 4-game stretch from week 13 to week 16 in which they had their expected starting five offensive linemen together for the first time all season, a stretch in which they won all 4 games, including an upset victory over the Bills.

Even excluding the Rams’ meaningless week 18 game, they still finished the regular season with middling numbers in terms of yards per play differential (-0.27) and first down rate differential (+0.71%), but from week 8 to week 17, those numbers were -0.01 and 1.78% respectively and in their four games with a healthy offensive line those numbers were +0.07 and +3.29%. Now essentially fully healthy in the post-season, the Rams dismantled the Vikings in round 1, winning the yards per play battle by +1.94 and the first down rate battle by +3.52%.

The Eagles also have underwhelming season-long numbers in terms of yards per play differential and first down rate differential, finishing the regular season at +0.87 and 2.91% respectively, excluding their meaningless week 18 game, but that is still significantly better than the Rams’ season-long numbers and the Eagles have had several key players miss significant time with injury who have since returned, far more than even the Rams. That list includes All-Pro wide receiver AJ Brown (4 games), talented wide receiver Devonta Smith (4 games), talented tight end Dallas Goedert (7 games), All-Pro left tackle Jordan Mailata (5 games), All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson (2 games), top cornerback Darius Slay (3 games) and talented edge defender Bryce Huff (5 games).

In their current injury situations, the Eagles have a 6-point edge over the Rams in my roster rankings and look like a significantly better team. The Eagles are favored by 6 points at home in this game, so there isn’t quite enough here for them to be bettable, especially since the Rams are one of the better road teams in the league due to their lack of homefield advantage in Los Angeles (+1.9 average point differential at home, +1.1 on the road since moving in 2016), but the Eagles still look like the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Los Angeles Rams 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6

Confidence: Low

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams: 2024 NFC Wild Card Round Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (14-3) at Los Angeles Rams (10-7)

When these two teams met back in week 8, it seemed unlikely that they would meet again in the post-season. The Vikings looked playoff bound at 5-1, but the Rams sat at just 2-4 going into that game. However, that game proved to be a turning point for the Rams, who pulled the upset and then proceeded to win eight of their next ten games overall to clinch the NFC West, before resting their starters for a meaningless week 18 games. 

The main reason for the Rams’ improvement was their improved health, as that game against the Vikings was the first game back for their dynamic wide receiver duo of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, who missed most of the early part of the season with injury. The Rams also proceeded to get even healthier down the stretch when their offensive line got healthy, with their expected starting five offensive linemen not playing together until week 13. 

The Rams finished the season with middling numbers in terms of yards per play differential (-0.27) and first down rate differential (+0.71%), even excluding week 18, but if you look at just weeks 8-17, the Rams were -0.01 in yards per play differential and +1.78% in first down rate differential. If you look at just weeks 13-16, the four games in which they had their offensive line healthy, they had a +0.07 yards per play differential and a 3.29% first down rate differential and went 4-0, including an upset victory over the Bills, which is very relevant as the Rams will have their offensive line healthy for this game and no other significant injuries to speak of.

On the Vikings side, that loss to the Rams could have also been a turning point in their season in a bad way, as they lost stud left tackle Christian Darrisaw with a torn ACL in that game, by far the most notable injury they’ve had all season. However, the Rams mitigated the loss of Darrisaw somewhat by trading for Cam Robinson after that game, and they also got tight end TJ Hockenson back from a torn ACL the following week, which was a boost for this offense and also somewhat mitigated the loss of Darrisaw. As a result, the Vikings have actually gone 9-1 since losing to the Rams, with their one loss coming in week 18 in Detroit.

That being said, you could still argue this team isn’t as good as they were prior to week 8. Their statistical metrics are pretty similar, as the Vikings have a season-long first down rate differential of +2.72% and yards per play differential of +0.31, as compared to +3.07% and +0.14 since week 8. However, the Vikings have played a much easier schedule since week 8, beating just one playoff team over that stretch, a 2-point home victory over the Packers, relevant since they are 2.5-point road favorites in this game against the Rams. The Vikings have also played a much easier schedule overall this season than the Rams, who have an opponents’ winning percentage of .474, as compared to .505 for the Vikings.

Overall, the Rams look like the right side in this one. The Vikings have a significant statistical edge on the season, but that edge goes away when you take into account the Rams’ tougher schedule and better current injury situation. My roster rankings reflect that, giving the Vikings only a half-point edge over the Rams. However, with this line being under a field goal, it’s hard to justify betting on the Rams, especially since this will be essentially a neutral site game for them, with Los Angeles wildfires forcing this game to move to Arizona. 

This being a neutral site game is not as big of a deal for the Rams as it would be for most teams, as they lack homefield advantage in Los Angeles anyway, (+1.9 average point differential at home, +1.1 on the road since moving in 2016), but it’s still worth noting, especially since the situation back home could prove to be a disruption and distraction for them. I am going to take the Rams for pick ‘em purposes, but I still lean slightly towards the Vikings winning this game straight up and, either way, I don’t think this game is worth betting.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Los Angeles Rams 23

Pick against the spread: LA Rams +2.5

Confidence: None

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams: 2024 Week 17 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (7-8) at Los Angeles Rams (9-6)

The Cardinals are a decent team statistically on the season, with a slightly above average point differential (+2), yards per play differential (+0.30), and first down rate differential (+0.39%), which are all more predictive than win/loss record, where the Cardinals sit at just 7-8. However, a big part of the reason for that is the Cardinals have had relatively few key injuries this season and that is starting to change. The Cardinals were dealt a big blow last week when stud left tackle Paris Johnson was ruled out for a must win game against the Panthers, a game the Cardinals subsequently lost in overtime, eliminating the Cardinals from playoff contention. 

Now, with the Cardinals’ season effectively over, Johnson has been shut down for the rest of the season, as has right tackle Jonah Williams. Williams was one of the few Cardinals to miss significant time with injury early in the season, missing 10 games in total, but the Cardinals got solid play out of veteran backup Kelvin Beachum in his absence. Now with both Johnson and Williams out, Beachum will start at left tackle and practice squad call up Jackson Barton will start at right tackle, which should lead to significantly diminished play at both tackle spots. The Cardinals could also be without stud lead back James Conner due to a knee injury he suffered last week. Conner saw limited practices every day this week, which normally would almost definitely mean he would play, but with the Cardinals out of playoff contention, they may opt to play it safe with him, which would be a big blow to this offense.

This line has moved to heavily compensate for the Cardinals’ injuries and elimination from the post-season though, probably more than it should have. The Cardinals have gone from 3-point road underdogs in Los Angeles against the Rams on the early line last week to 5-point road underdogs earlier this week to now 7-point road underdogs, in large part due to the injury updates. Not only are the odds makers compensating for the Cardinals’ injuries, but they seem to be thinking the Cardinals won’t bring their best effort this week after being eliminated from the post-season, which seems unlikely, given that this is still a divisional rivalry game and given that the Cardinals are a well coached team under Jonathan Gannon who continued to play hard down the stretch last season despite a terrible roster that was going nowhere, going 3-5 after a 1-8 start.

On top of that, the Rams have an injury concern of their own, with right tackle Rob Havenstein suffering a shoulder injury in practice on Wednesday and subsequently missing Thursday’s practice and being listed as questionable on the final injury report. Despite the Rams’ 9-6 record, they actually rank behind the Cardinals in yards per play differential (-0.26) and point differential (-18), only having an edge in first down rate differential (+1.31%). They have played a lot better in recent weeks, winning eight of their last ten games after a 1-4 start, largely coinciding with the return of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua to the lineup in week 8 after early season injuries. That hot stretch has also included four straight wins, fully coinciding with the Rams’ offensive line being fully healthy for the first time all season in week 13, but Havenstein’s potential absence would hurt them at least somewhat. 

With Conner and Havenstein factored in as truly questionable and factoring in that the Rams have below average homefield advantage in Los Angeles, where they frequently play in front of crowds favoring the road team (+1.9 point per game average point differential at home, +1.1 point per game average point differential on the road since their first season in Los Angeles in 2016), my calculated line has the Rams as 5-point favorites, which gives us pretty decent line value with the Cardinals at +7. I am not placing a bet on the Cardinals right now because of the uncertainty around the status of Havenstein and Conner, but depending on whether or not those two play and depending on where this line ends up, I could end up placing a bet on the Cardinals and, either way, the Cardinals seem like the better side for pick ‘em purposes.

Los Angeles Rams 31 Arizona Cardinals 26

Pick against the spread: Arizona +7

Confidence: Low

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers: 2024 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (7-6) at San Francisco 49ers (6-7)

Both of these teams had impressive results last week. The Rams pulled the upset over the Bills, who are one of the best teams in the league, winning by a final score of 44-42. The 49ers faced a much easier opponent in the Chicago Bears, but blew them out convincingly, winning 38-13, while outgaining them by 4.29 yards per play and converting first downs at a 8.56% higher rate. Of those two results, the Rams’ looks much less fluky. Last week’s victory was the Rams’ sixth in eight games, including victories over the Rams and Seahawks, in addition to that win over the Bills. Meanwhile the 49ers’ win snapped a three game losing streak, including two straight losses by 25+ points, one of which came just one week prior against the same Bills team that the Rams defeated last week.

Injuries are the primary reason for these two teams generally heading in the opposite direction. Last week was only the Rams’ second game all season with their expected starting five offensive linemen all healthy at the same time, while their recent stretch of strong play largely coincides with the return of their two stud wide receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp to the lineup in their week 8 victory over the Vikings. Overall, the Rams are one of the healthiest teams in the league right now, as none of the players who are expected to miss this game with injury being key players, with cornerback Cobie Durant, a decent starter, being their most notable absence. That kind of health simply was not the case for this team for most of the season.

For the 49ers, the situation is very different. Among others, the 49ers are most notably missing running back Christian McCaffrey, wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, left tackle Trent Williams, and defensive tackle Javon Hargrave, and potentially defensive end Nick Bosa, all of whom were among the best players in the league at their respective positions during the 49ers’ run to the Super Bowl last week. Bosa’s return would be big and it seems like the 49ers will get back linebacker Dre Greenlaw for the first time this season, but Bosa could be on the wrong side of questionable having gotten in just one limited practice this week after missing the past three games and it remains to be seen how much of an impact Greenlaw will make in his first game back from a torn achilles.

The 49ers have been the better team statistically this season, with a first down rate differential of +3.07% and a yards per play differential of +1.27, as opposed to 1.15% and -0.34 respectively for the Rams, but in their current injury situations, these two teams are about even in my roster rankings. Despite that, the 49ers are favored by a full field goal at home in this game, so we’re getting some line value with the Rams. It’s not enough for the Rams to be worth betting, but if Nick Bosa ends up missing his fourth straight game and the line doesn’t move, I would strongly consider a bet on the Rams.

San Francisco 49ers 24 Los Angeles Rams 23

Pick against the spread: LA Rams +3

Confidence: Low

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams: 2024 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (5-1) at Los Angeles Rams (2-4)

These two teams have very different records, with the Vikings tied for the best record in the NFC at 5-1 and the Rams out of the playoff picture at 2-4, but they have been more equal than that suggests, as the Vikings have a +1.73% first down rate differential and a +0.64 yards per play differential, while the Rams are at -1.08% and -0.71 respectively. Both of those metrics are significantly more predictive than win/loss record. The Rams also get a big boost this week, with talented wide receiver Cooper Kupp practicing in full and set to return for the first time since getting injured back in week 2. With these two teams closer in important metrics than their records suggest and the Rams getting one of their most important players back from injury, my rankings have these two teams about four points apart. 

With the Rams at home, that four point gap would normally mean they should be two point underdogs, with home teams on average outscoring road teams by about two points over the past several seasons. However, the Rams don’t have quite the same homefield advantage in Los Angeles, where they frequently play in front of crowds heavily supporting the road team. Given that, this line, favoring the Vikings by a field goal, is about right. My calculated line has the Rams slightly more likely than the Vikings to cover this spread, but this is one of my lowest confidence picks of the week and the most likely outcome might be a push, with the Vikings winning by exactly a field goal. If this line slips down to 2.5, I would change my pick to Minnesota.

Update: This line has dropped to 2.5, but that’s because Puka Nacua is surprisingly active, while TJ Hockenson, who was questionable for the Vikings, was ruled out. Nacua is unlikely to play close to his regular snap count though, having gotten just two limited practices in after missing seven weeks, while Hockenson would likely not have played a full snap count had he been active, in his first game in ten months after tearing his ACL, so neither of those injury developments is a huge deal. This is still a no confidence pick, but I am switching to Minnesota at 2.5.

Minnesota Vikings 23 Los Angeles Rams 20

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -2.5

Confidence: None