Rams

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints: 2018 NFC Championship Pick

stevenlourie 2018 NFL Conference Championship Picks, 2018 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Rams, Saints

Los Angeles Rams (14-3) at New Orleans Saints (14-3)

These two met back in week 9 in New Orleans, but a lot has changed since then. At the time, the Rams were favored by a couple points, despite being the road team, because they were an undefeated 8-0 and seen as the early Super Bowl favorite. That changed when the Saints pulled the upset and subsequently went on to win 7 of their next 8 meaningful games, while the Rams went “just” 5-3 over the second half of the season. As a result, the Saints were able to clinch the #1 seed in the NFC before week 17, despite being a game and a half back of the Rams going into their week 9 matchup.

The Saints’ strong play is a big part of the reason why they overtook the Rams in the NFC, but the Rams also regressed a little bit down the stretch, particularly on offense after they lost slot receiver Cooper Kupp. The Rams still have a talented duo of receivers in Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods, but Kupp had been Jared Goff’s most effective receiver over the past 2 years. Goff completed 72.4% of his 152 targets to Kupp for 1,504 yards, 12 touchdowns, and just 2 interceptions, a ridiculous 124.5 QB rating. Kupp has missed 9 games in total including playoffs, but was also knocked out of 3 games with injury this season. In the 5 games he started and finished, the Rams had a 46.96% first down rate. In the 3 games he was knocked out, the Rams had a 44.72% first down rate. And in the 9 games he missed entirely, the Rams had a first down rate of 40.54%.

That’s still a good number and would have ranked 6th in the NFL over the course of the season, but they’re not quite the dominant offense they were going into the previous matchup, one of the five games Kupp started and finished (45.76% first down rate in a 45-35 loss). Their passing game in particular has fallen back to earth. Goff completed 71.8% of his passes for an average of 10.33 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions in the 5 games Kupp started and finished, but just 59.8% of his passes for an average of 7.08 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions in the 9 he’s missed completely. They’re still a strong offense, but they’re more reliant on the run than they were when Kupp was healthy.

Fortunately for them, the Saints also are missing a key player from the first matchup, with defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins going down with a torn achilles early in last week’s win over the Eagles. Outside of Cameron Jordan and Marshon Lattimore, Rankins was probably the Saints’ best defensive player this season, so that’s a big loss. Not only does losing him significantly hurt their chances of slowing down Todd Gurley and CJ Anderson on the ground, but he had a productive year as pass rusher as well, totaling 8 sacks, 6 hits, and 32 hurries on 450 pass rush snaps (10.2%).

On top of that, the Rams also have cornerback Aqib Talib healthy, which they didn’t have in the first matchup. In 6 games in which Talib has played more than half the snaps, the Rams have allowed opponents to pick up first downs at a 34.45% rate, as opposed to 40.12% in the 11 games in which he was inactive or limited. The Rams faced a pretty easily schedule in those 6 games (Oakland, Chicago, Philadelphia, Arizona, San Francisco, and Dallas), but it’s not hard to imagine how the return of the 6-1 209 Talib could have an impact in a rematch of a game in which the 6-3 212 Michael Thomas went for 12/211/1. I still have the Saints a little higher in my roster rankings, but I don’t think we’re getting enough line value here to bet on the Saints confidently.

New Orleans Saints 34 Los Angeles Rams 30

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -3

Confidence: Low

Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams: 2018 NFC Divisional Round Pick

stevenlourie 2018 NFL Divisional Round Picks, 2018 NFL Picks, Cowboys, NFL Picks, Rams

Dallas Cowboys (11-6) at Los Angeles Rams (13-3)

The Cowboys are the weakest of the remaining 8 playoff teams. Their offense has been better since acquiring Amari Cooper during the bye, picking up first downs at a 35.98% rate in 10 games with him, as opposed to 33.81% in 7 games without him, but their defense has gone in the other direction. Before the bye, the Cowboys ranked 4th in first down rate allowed at 31.47%, but they’ve allowed opponents to pick up first downs at a 36.59% rate in 10 games since.

After overachieving on defense early in the season, they’ve largely fallen back down to earth in recent weeks, but they’re still considered an elite defense by many because they played their best game on primetime against the Saints. Even with that week 13 upset win over the Saints included, the Cowboys are allowing 22.3 points per game since the bye. They’ve been winning, going 8-2 in their last 10, but all of their wins have been by 8 points or fewer and they are somehow even in point differential over those 10 games. I don’t give them much of a shot to win this game in Los Angeles against the Rams, especially if slot receiver Cole Beasley and tight end Blake Jarwin are both unable to go after not practicing all week.

That being said, it’s hard to be confident in the Rams as 7-point favorites. They have 7 wins by more than a touchdown this year, but 6 of them came against the Raiders, Lions, Cardinals, and 49ers, among the worst teams in the league. The Chargers are the only non-cellar dweller they’ve beaten by more than a touchdown, with teams like the Broncos, Packers and Seahawks (twice), comparable caliber teams to the Cowboys, all keeping their games against the Rams close. I only have this line calculated at Rams -7.5, so I can’t be confident in the Rams at -7 and I may switch this pick to the Cowboys if both Beasley and Jarwin are able to go. A push also seems like a strong possibility.

Los Angeles Rams 26 Dallas Cowboys 17

Pick against the spread: LA Rams -7

Confidence: None

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams: 2018 Week 17 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (4-11) at Los Angeles Rams (12-3)

The 49ers are just 4-11, but they’ve been much better since turning to Nick Mullens under center. They have moved the chains at a 36.87% rate in Mullen’s 7 starts, as opposed to 35.17% in CJ Beathard’s 5 starts. More important, Mullens has committed just 7 turnovers in 7 games, while Beathard committed 10 in 5 games, and the 49ers are 3-4 in his 7 starts, as opposed to 0-5 in Beathard’s 5 starts.

Turnover margins tend to be unpredictable on a week-to-week basis anyway and the 49ers have been killed by the turnover margin all season, ranking dead last in the NFL at -21. Beathard’s turnovers weren’t the only problem, as a capable defense that ranks 17th in first down rate allowed on the season somehow didn’t force a single takeaway for 6 games until forcing 2 last week against the Bears, who ironically rank 2nd in the NFL in turnover margin (yet another example of turnover margins being unpredictable).

Unfortunately, it seems like the public is catching on with the 49ers, as they are just 10.5 point underdogs in Los Angeles against the Rams. I know injuries have started to pile up for the Rams, with wide receiver Cooper Kupp, running back Todd Gurley, and safety LaMarcus Joyner all sidelined, but I still think this line would have been at least two touchdowns a couple weeks ago. I’m still taking the 49ers, but I wouldn’t recommend betting any money on them.

Not only are we not getting enough line value with the 49ers anymore, but they also haven’t played on the road in about a month and have been at home for 5 of Mullen’s 7 starts. In his only two road starts, the 49ers got blown out by the Seahawks and Buccaneers. Home/road disparities tend to be inconsistent in the long run, but I am concerned taking an inexperienced quarterback with no history of success on the road against a Rams team that still has a ton of talent.

Los Angeles Rams 26 San Francisco 49ers 17

Pick against the spread: San Francisco +10.5

Confidence: Low

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals: 2018 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (11-3) at Arizona Cardinals (3-11)

The Cardinals were blown out last week in Atlanta, losing by 26 points to a team that had previously lost 5 straight games. That was probably in part due to the Cardinals not being totally focused, with this much bigger game against the Rams on deck, but, even if they’re fully focused this week, that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll cover this spread. This spread is huge, with the Cardinals being 14-point home underdogs, but it’s justifiable given the talent gap between these two teams.

The Cardinals rank dead last in first down rate differential at -7.22% and might be even worse than that suggests, given all of their injuries. They are missing their top-3 offensive linemen, DJ Humphries, Mike Iupati, and Justin Pugh, their top receiver Christian Kirk, starting defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche, and every down linebacker Josh Bynes, among others. On the season, 6 of their 11 losses have come by at least two touchdowns. The Rams don’t have that many blowout wins (4 wins by 14 points or more), but that’s in part due to a tough schedule. Those blowout wins came against the Raiders, Cardinals, 49ers, and Lions, all among the worst teams in the league, so they’ve taken care of business whenever they’ve had an easy matchup like this.

The Rams should also be fully focused for this game, as their schedule gets way easier to close out the year, facing the 49ers next week after this game against the Cardinals. Favorites of 7+ are 58-36 ATS since 2014 before being favorites of 7+ again, as superior teams tend to take care of business without upcoming distractions. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have another tough game in Seattle next week and it’s proven to be very tough for inferior teams to hang with superior teams with another tough game on deck. Underdogs of 7+ are just 31-50 ATS since 2014 before being underdogs of 7+ again, including just 4-14 ATS if their opponent will next be favorites of 7+ again. I don’t want to make a bet on this game without confirmation that Todd Gurley will play for the Rams after missing practice all week, but I will revisit this if he ends up playing.

Final Update: Todd Gurley is expected to play and, while we won’t know for sure until later this afternoon, I want to lock this in now in case the line jumps from 14. The Rams have blown out every terrible team they’ve faced this season and that trend dates back to last season as well, when they went 3-0 against teams that finished 5-11 or worse, winning those 3 games by an average of 32.3 points per game. Without an upcoming distraction on the schedule for the Rams, I don’t expect this to be close.

Los Angeles Rams 34 Arizona Cardinals 13

Pick against the spread: LA Rams -14

Confidence: Medium

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams: 2018 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2018 NFL Picks, 2018 Week 15 NFL Picks, Eagles, NFL Picks, Rams

Philadelphia Eagles (6-7) at Los Angeles Rams (11-2)

The Eagles have been the most disappointing team in the league this season, going 6-7 a year after winning the Super Bowl. After losing to the Cowboys for the second time in 5 weeks last week, the Eagles are effectively 3 games out of the division lead with 3 games to go. The wild card is still an option, but they’d need to win out and get help. The long-term outlook for this franchise looks good, as most of their losses have been close (6 of 7 by 7 points or fewer) and many of their problems have been injury related, but in the short-term they could easily get blown out this week.

The Eagles have mostly played close games this season, but the injuries have piled up for them at the worst time, ahead of one of the toughest games of their season, a game they need to win to stay alive in the playoff race. Already without their top-3 cornerbacks, starting safety Rodney McLeod, starting defensive tackle Timmy Jernigan, every down linebacker Jordan Hicks, and rotational defensive end Derek Barnett on defense, the Eagles will be led on offense by Nick Foles this week, with Carson Wentz sidelined with a back injury. Wentz has disappointed this season playing through injury and this offense as a whole ranks just 15th in first down rate, but Foles could still be a noticeable downgrade.

On the other side, not only are the Rams are a strong opponent, but they are in a great spot, with no upcoming distractions. Up next on their schedule is a trip to Arizona, where they are 11.5-point road favorites on the early line, and teams are 50-33 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 7 or more. On top of that, favorites of 7+ are 84-51 ATS over that same time period before being favorites of 7+ again, as superior teams tend to take care of business against inferior teams when they don’t have any upcoming distractions on their schedule. They’ll also benefit from being a west coast team in a night game against an east coast team, a spot in which teams cover at a 65% rate historically, due to differing internal time cycles.

We aren’t getting any line value with the Rams as 13-point favorites and Nick Foles is a high variance quarterback that could play well in a do or die spot for the Eagles, so I wouldn’t recommend betting this game, but I like the Rams’ chances of winning by at least two touchdowns. They have just 5 wins by more than 10 points this season, but they’ve also played a very tough schedule, playing a projected playoff team in 7 of 13 games and getting double digit wins in 5 of the other 7 games against opponents with a losing record like the Eagles. I expect them to get another one, but 13 points is too high to bet confidently.

Los Angeles Rams 31 Philadelphia Eagles 16

Pick against the spread: LA Rams -13

Confidence: Low

Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears: 2018 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (11-1) at Chicago Bears (8-4)

The Bears lost last week in New York to the Giants, but I don’t really hold that against them that much. The Giants have been playing better football over the past month and the Bears were starting a backup quarterback in a terrible spot, with this huge home game against the Rams on deck. They were nowhere near 100% last week, but they still won the first down rate battle by 4.35%, taking the game to overtime, despite losing the turnover battle by 2. Because of that, the Bears remain #1 in first down rate differential on the season at +6.73%, despite playing with a backup quarterback for two games. Their 8-4 record is good, but they’ve been even better than that suggests, as all 4 of their losses came by less than a touchdown (by a combined 14 points) and they won the first down rate battle in 3 of those 4 losses.

Bears starting quarterback Mitch Trubisky is not even listed on the injury report this week, after practicing in full all week, and I expect a much better effort from the Bears in a much bigger game. The Rams are obviously a tough opponent and they’re better defensively with Aqib Talib back, but I don’t think they deserve to be favored by a full field goal here in Chicago. The strength of schedule difference between these two teams worries me, as the Bears have had the easiest schedule by DVOA, while the Rams have had the 9th toughest, but even with that taken into account I have this line calculated about even. Chicago isn’t worth a huge bet, but I think they have a good chance to win straight up and I like getting field goal protection at +3.

Chicago Bears 24 Los Angeles Rams 23 Upset Pick +135

Pick against the spread: Chicago +3

Confidence: Medium

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions: 2018 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (10-1) at Detroit Lions (4-7)

The book on the Lions since Matt Stafford became a full-time starter in 2011 is to take them in easier games and fade them against tougher opponents. Over that time period, they are 20-39-2 ATS and 20-41 straight up against teams with a winning record. Most recently, they went a combined 1-11 against eventual playoff teams between 2016 and 2017, as opposed to 15-3 in their other 18 games. This year, they’ve beaten the Patriots, Panthers, and Packers, but the Panthers and Packers would have won if not for several missed kicks and both teams could easily end up missing the playoffs anyway.

The Rams certainly count as a tougher opponent, as they are arguably the best team in the league. They haven’t had many blowout wins lately, winning by double digits just twice in their past 9 games, which would seem relevant in a game they’re favored by 9.5 or 10 points, but look at who they’ve played during that stretch: Chargers, Vikings, Seahawks, Broncos, 49ers, Packers, Saints, Seahawks and Chiefs. Aside from the 49ers, who the Rams beat by 29, all of those teams are playoff contenders. The Rams also won by 20+ in their first 2 weeks of the season against the Raiders and Rams.

The Lions are more similar to the teams they’ve blown out, as they rank 26th in first down rate differential at -4.09%. They’ve been better defensively since getting defensive tackle Damon Harrison in a trade from the Giants and getting defensive end Ezekiel Ansah back from injury, but they’ve gone in the opposite direction on offense, trading slot receiver Golden Tate to the Eagles and losing running back Kerryon Johnson, right guard TJ Lang, and wide receiver Marvin Jones to injury.

The Rams are also in a great spot coming out of a bye. Good teams tend to take care of business after a week off, especially on the road, as road favorites of 4+ are a ridiculous 32-8 ATS off a bye since 2002. The bye also allowed them to get healthy, as they come into this game at close to full strength. Not only do they get starting cornerback Aqib Talib back from an extended absence, but fellow starting cornerback Marcus Peters has struggling through an injury and he should be closer to full strength after an extra week off. The Rams’ defense has been shaky recently, ranking 25th in first down rate allowed on the season at 39.67%, but they should be better than that going forward. I like their chances of taking care of business and blowing out the Lions. At -9.5, this is my Pick of the Week, but they’re also worth a big bet at -10.

Los Angeles Rams 31 Detroit Lions 17

Pick against the spread: LA Rams -9.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Rams: 2018 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (9-1) at Los Angeles Rams (9-1)

Originally this game was supposed to be in Mexico City, but poor field conditions forced the NFL to move it back to Los Angeles, making this a true home game for the Rams (originally they gave one up to play in Mexico City). It’s obviously a huge loss for Mexico City, as this ended up being one of the biggest games of the season. These two teams are in different conferences, so there aren’t seeding tiebreakers up for grabs in this game like there were in Chiefs/Patriots and Rams/Saints, but this is the 3rd latest two teams with at least a 90% winning percentage have met in the past 30 seasons and this could easily be a Super Bowl preview.

The Rams were originally 1.5-point favorites when the game was in Mexico City, but the line shifted to 3 as a result of the move to Los Angeles. Normally homefield advantage is about 3 points, but the Rams have had trouble getting a steady fanbase in Los Angeles, even as well as they’ve been playing, so we could easily see the crowd full of Chiefs fans like it was full of Packers and Seahawks fans in recent weeks. Given that, I understand not giving the Rams the full 3-point homefield advantage.

WIth that in mind, I’d say this line is pretty accurate. I have the Rams a little bit better than the Chiefs in my roster rankings, but it’s hard to take the Rams with any confidence as field goal home favorites against a team as good as the Chiefs when they don’t have true homefield advantage. I’m taking the Rams for pick ‘em purposes, but we could easily see a push in this game. This one figures to go right down to the wire and may come down to who has the ball last.

Los Angeles Rams 34 Kansas City Chiefs 31

Pick against the spread: LA Rams -3

Confidence: None

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams: 2018 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (4-4) at Los Angeles Rams (8-1)

The Rams have not had many blowout victories lately, with just one double digit win in their last 6 games. That’s understandable when you look at their schedule though. They’ve played just one of their last five games at home and their last two home games came against the Vikings and Packers, a pair of strong opponents. Prior to that, they had blow out home victories over the Cardinals and Chargers and they also have a pair of blowout wins on the road in Oakland and San Francisco.

This week could easily be another double digit win over the Rams, now back home against the Seahawks. Seattle isn’t a bad team and they’ve gotten better since getting linebacker KJ Wright back from injury, but they still rank 25th in first down rate differential at -3.39% on the season. They have a 4-4 record, but that’s largely as a result of a +9 turnover margin (3rd in the NFL). Turnover margins are incredibly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, so that’s not something they’re going to be able to count on going forward, especially against top teams like the Rams.

The Seahawks played the Rams close in their first matchup, losing 33-31, but that game was in Seattle and the Seahawks lost despite winning the turnover battle by +2. The Rams had 30 first downs to 20 for the Seahawks and outgained them by about 100 yards. On average, teams that win the turnover margin by 2 have a -0.1 turnover margin in a same season rematch. Unless the Seahawks can win the turnover margin again, the Rams should be able to defeat them with ease now back in Los Angeles.

That being said, I’m not betting the Rams for three reasons. For one, there will likely be a ton of Seahawk fans at this game, much like there were a lot of Packer fans there a couple weeks ago. For that reason, you could argue that the Rams won’t quite have true homefield advantage in this one. The second reason is that they have a much bigger game in Mexico City against the AFC leading Chiefs next week, so this could be a little bit of a look ahead spot, even against a hated division rival. The third reason is that the Rams cancelled practice on Friday because of the wildfires, which could be a distraction this week. The Rams should be the right side, but this isn’t worth betting.

Los Angeles Rams 27 Seattle Seahawks 15

Pick against the spread: LA Rams -9.5

Confidence: Low

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints: 2018 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (8-0) at New Orleans Saints (6-1)

I’ve bet on the Saints every week since week 3, after they got off to one of their typical slow starts (2-12 ATS in the first 2 games of the season since 2012, 55-38 ATS after week 2), and they’ve covered in all 5 games, after failing to cover in their first two. That being said, it’s a lot harder being confident in the Saints this week, as 1.5 point home underdogs against the undefeated Rams. I have this line calculated at New Orleans -2, but any line value within the 3s is not terribly valuable, given how few games are decided by 3 points or fewer.

The Saints are an obvious top-5 team this year and could easily win this game at home, but the Rams are also a step up in class and it’s hard to be confident betting against them in a game they basically just have to win to cover, especially with talented slot receiver Cooper Kupp returning from a two game absence. I’m taking the Saints, who are in a great spot with only a trip to Cincinnati on deck after arguably their biggest game of the season this week (home underdogs are 23-9 ATS since 2014 before being road favorites), but this is a low confidence pick.

New Orleans Saints 26 Los Angeles Rams 24 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +1.5

Confidence: Low