Rams

St. Louis Rams 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Rams

The Rams won 7 games in 2010 in Sam Bradford’s rookie year, but regressed and won just 2 in 2011 thanks to injuries. This year, they won 7 again (plus a tie), but there’s a lot more hope for the future. Their defense went from 26th in 2011 to 14th and they are still one of the youngest defenses in the NFL. In fact, the Rams came into this season as the NFL’s youngest overall roster.
They knocked off some quality opponents and hung close with a few others, beating Seattle, San Francisco, and Washington, tying the 49ers again, and came within a touchdown of beating the Seahawks in Seattle week 17. Their schedule was actually pretty brutal, as they played 9 games against teams who won 10 or more games, going 3-6 in those 9 games, which is respectable.

They won those 7 games in spite of injuries this time and it appears Sam Bradford took another step in his development. He didn’t post eye popping numbers or anything, but, unlike in 2011, the 3rd year quarterback was able to have success in spite of the loss of his left tackle Rodger Saffold and top receiver Danny Amendola for a significant period of time. In 2011, he was completely lost without them, but improved coaching, as well as improved maturity on Bradford’s part, allowed him to adapt.

The Rams need to continue to build around the former #1 overall pick and they have two 1st round picks in each of the next two years to do so. A lot of Rams fans might be kicking themselves for not drafting Robert Griffin and essentially trading away his draft rights, but it’s easy to say that now when we know Griffin is good. Unless you absolutely need a quarterback, like the Redskins did and the Rams didn’t, it’s always safer to take the extra picks. Both teams won that trade and the Rams have a bright future in part because of it.

Offensive Tackle

Building around Sam Bradford starts on the offensive line. When healthy, Rodger Saffold is a more than adequate left tackle, but he’s missed more than half of the team’s offensive snaps over the last 2 seasons. Swing tackle Wayne Hunter has to play at left tackle when Saffold is out and that’s not pretty. He’s due 3.95 million next season anyway and almost definitely won’t be brought back at that salary. Also possibly not back is right tackle Barry Richardson, who is better than Hunter, but only by default. He’s a free agent. They need at least one new tackle, a starter at right tackle, and while they may be able to get away with Richardson as a swing, they should look at other options because of how often Saffold is hurt.

Guard

Offensive tackle wasn’t the only issue on their offensive line. The Rams had 4 different players start at left guard this season, Rokevious Watkins, Quinn Ojinnaka, Shelley Smith, and Robert Turner. Turner closed out the season there and played the best of the bunch, but only by default. He played much better at center when Scott Wells was hurt and if he’s retained as a free agent this off-season, it should be as a reserve center, rather than a starting left guard. 2012 5th round pick Watkins might be seen as the 2013 starter now, but they shouldn’t write that in stone. Guards should be considered early in the 2013 NFL Draft.

Safety

The Rams played good defense, but the worst full time player on the unit was free safety Craig Dahl, who frequently missed tackles. The career journeyman is a free agent this off-season and the Rams should take this opportunity to find an upgrade. It’s already being reported that he won’t be welcomed back. With two first round picks, expect them to give safeties a look early.

Outside Linebacker

The Rams locked up middle linebacker James Laurinaitis last off-season and Jo-Lonn Dunbar surprisingly played well this season, though who knows if that will continue long term. They really need an upgrade at the 3rd linebacker spot regardless as one year rental Rocky McIntosh did not impress, even getting benched for Mario Haggan week 17, who wasn’t any better.

Wide Receiver

I don’t think the answer here is more youth and drafting another receiver. The Rams have used a 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round pick on a wide receiver over the last 2 drafts, taking Austin Pettis in the 3rd in 2011 and then Brian Quick and Chris Givens in the 2nd and 4th respectively last year. They need to wait on some of that talent to develop, rather than just adding more raw talent. Givens looked great for a 4th round rookie, actually leading the team in receiving, while Pettis has had his moments. Quick barely played as a rookie, but you can never write off a receiver after one year, especially one as athletic as Quick. They obviously need to re-sign Danny Amendola and adding another veteran to replace mediocre free agent Brandon Gibson makes sense, but the only way drafting another receiver makes sense is if it’s the best available player.

Tight End

Here’s where I think they could draft someone. Lance Kendricks was a 2nd round pick in 2011, but he hasn’t been the player they were expecting. He’s a product of the Steve Spagnuolo/Billy Devaney regime so Jeff Fisher/Les Snead won’t have any loyalty to him. They should at least bring in some competition because they don’t have anyone behind him on the depth chart who can catch passes.

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St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks: Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 17 NFL Picks, Rams, Seahawks

St. Louis Rams (7-7-1) at Seattle Seahawks (10-5)

Everyone knows about the Seahawks’ home prowess, but it’s really, really significant, possibly even more than people realize. At home, they are 47-20 ATS since 2005, including 6-0 ATS as double digit favorites and 16-3 ATS as touchdown plus home favorites. For contrast, they are 24-43 ATS on the road in that same time period.

On average, they outscore opponents at home by an average of 7.3 points per game. On the road, they are outscored by 5.1 points per game. For this reason, I don’t feel that using 2.5 as a home field adjustment for them is inappropriate. I feel that using 6 (split the difference) or something around there is a more appropriate adjustment (either way: add 6 at home and subtract 6 on the road).

Even using the standard 2.5, we’re getting significant line value with the Seahawks. The Seahawks are all the way in 2nd at net points per drive at 0.90 now, while the Rams are at -0.34 in 24th. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per team per game), and add that standard 2.5, you get that Seattle should be favored by 16 here. If you use that 6 point adjustment, you get a line of Seattle -19.5. DVOA backs this all up, as Seattle ranks far and away best in both regular and weighted DVOA, while the Rams are 17th and 16th respectively, not bad, but not good enough for me to even consider taking the points here.

For this reason, I don’t even care that this line has moved 3.5 points since last week. Seattle -7.5 was ridiculous anyway. Even Seattle -11 right now is too low for this dominant home team. I don’t care that the public is all over the Seahawks. I don’t care that teams tend to struggle off of back-to-back blowouts. Teams are 28-42 ATS since 1989 off of two straight wins by 24 or more, but the Seahawks were in this spot last week and didn’t seem to care. Now they’re the 6th team since 1989 to have three win straight by that many and just the 2nd (2004 Colts) to win 3 straight by 29 or more. They’re also the first team in that time period to outscore opponents by 120 or more over a 3 game stretch.

I don’t care that the Rams are 10-3 ATS as dogs this year and that they haven’t lost a divisional game and that the Seahawks seem due for a letdown because no one is this good and that everything I normally like to do is telling me to stay away from the Seahawks this week because nothing is this easy. I don’t even care that I don’t like to lay more than a touchdown for a significant play. I’m doing that here. I’m expecting another blowout. There’s just too much line value. The Seahawks are too good at home. And it’s not like Pete Carroll has any qualms about running up the score.

Public lean: Seattle (70% range)

Seattle Seahawks 38 St. Louis Rams 10

Pick against spread: Seattle -11 (-110) 4 units

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St. Louis Rams: Week 17 NFL Power Rankings (#18)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 17 NFL Power Rankings, Rams

Last week: 18 (+0)

Record: 7-7-1

Net points per drive: -0.34 (24th)

DVOA: -4.2% (19th)

Weighted DVOA: -6.6% (20th)

Studs

TE Lance Kendricks: Caught 4 passes for 119 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts, 18.8 YAC per catch

CB Trumaine Johnson: Allowed 3 catches for 37 yards on 9 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 interception, 4 solo tackles, 2 stops

MLB James Laurinaitis: Allowed 1 catch for 7 yards on 3 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 interception, 9 solo tackles, 2 assists, 3 stops, 1 quarterback hit on 4 blitzes

Duds

WR Danny Amendola: Caught 2 passes for 11 yards on 7 attempts on 24 pass snaps, 1.0 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

ROLB Rocky McIntosh: 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 penalty, allowed 2 catches for 23 yards on 3 attempts

RE Robert Quinn: 1 quarterback hit on 50 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

DT Kendall Langford: 1 sack on 33 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackles, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

DT Michael Brockers: 1 quarterback hurry on 31 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, no tackles

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St. Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 16 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Rams

St. Louis Rams (6-7-1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-8)

The Buccaneers got destroyed in New Orleans last week, losing 41-0. I generally like taking teams off a blowout loss. Teams in this situation tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed. The most recent case of this was the Cardinals’ blowing out the Lions as huge home dogs last week after that 52-0 loss in Arizona the week before.

However, I only like doing this when the team is a dog. Here as a favorite, it’s a different dynamic for the Buccaneers. They’re supposed to bounce back and win. They’re not going to be overlooked and they certainly aren’t undervalued, especially as publicly backed favorites and anyone who reads these picks frequently knows I love to fade the public because they always lose money in the long run.

The Buccaneers certainly may be embarrassed (though you’d think they would have been embarrassed last week after losing at home to the lowly Eagles, but that didn’t work out), but it’s not enough for me to take them solely for that reason. Since 2002, dogs are 63-33 ATS off a 31+ loss, while favorites are just 15-13 ATS.

Given that, I actually like the Rams this week. They also lost last week, though not in as embarrassing a fashion. However, as a result, this line didn’t move in either direction despite the Buccaneers’ huge loss. I’m not too worried by the Rams’ loss. They are now 0-2 ATS this year as favorites, but they remain a pristine 9-3 ATS as dogs, as they are here.

At first glance, we are getting line value with the Buccaneers. They rank 16th in net points per drive at -0.02, while the Rams rank 26th at -0.43. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game per team), and add 2.5 points for home field, you get that Tampa Bay should be 7 point favorites. However, the Buccaneers rank 21st in regular and weighted DVOA, while the Rams rank 19th and 18th respectively, which pretty much defeats all that line value.

The Buccaneers are also likely to overlook them with a big divisional matchup up next. Teams are 59-93 ATS before being touchdown divisional dogs since 2008 and the Buccaneers go to Atlanta next week. The Rams have an equally big game next week in Seattle, but they’re less likely to overlook the Buccaneers as dogs.

Favorites are 13-29 ATS since 2008 before being touchdown divisional dogs, while dogs are 45-64 ATS. Going back to 2002 to get a bigger sample size, teams are 37-63 ATS as favorites and 91-127 ATS as dogs. Neither one is good, but I prefer the dog, especially as good as the Rams have been as dogs this season. The Buccaneers also tend to be very streaky and right now they are definitely streaking in the wrong direction. It’s also possible they might have just quit as they did late last season, though that’s unlikely under disciplinarian 1st year Head Coach Greg Schiano. It’s not a significant play though.

Public lean: Tampa Bay (70% range)

Sharps lean: STL 8 TB 4

Final thoughts: No change.

St. Louis Rams 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 Upset Pick +145

Pick against spread: St. Louis +3 (-110) 2 units

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St. Louis Rams: Week 16 NFL Power Rankings (#18)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, Rams

Last week: 18 (+0)

Record: 6-7-1

Net points per drive: -0.43 (26th)

DVOA: -5.1% (19th)

Weighted DVOA: -5.2% (18th)

It’s week 16 and the Rams are still mathematically alive for a playoff spot, even in the tougher NFC. It’s not an accomplishment for most teams, but given this team’s recent history, it is for them. They’ve definitely played some decent football this year and, though they probably won’t finish at or above .500, thanks to that tie against San Francisco, which could have been a win, and a trip to Seattle week 17, but they can beat the Buccaneers this week to end up finishing 7-8-1 with a lot of hope for the future.

Studs

C Scott Wells: Did not allow a pressure on 64 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 21 yards on 4 attempts

RG Harvey Dahl: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 54 pass block snaps, run blocked for 13 yards on 3 attempts

CB Janoris Jenkins: Allowed 3 catches for 18 yards on 5 attempts, 9 solo tackles, 3 stops

Duds

LT Rodger Saffold: Allowed 2 quarterback hits and 4 quarterback hurries on 64 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 1 yard on 2 attempts

WR Chris Givens: Caught 1 pass for 22 yards on 4 attempts on 37 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 2 kickoff returns for 29 yards

FS Craig Dahl: 4 solo tackles, 3 missed tackles, allowed 1 catch for 14 yards on 1 attempt

DT Michael Brockers: Did not record a pressure on 14 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

DT Kendall Langford: Did not record a pressure on 16 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

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Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Rams, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (7-6) at St. Louis Rams (6-6-1)

The Vikings won last week as home dogs against the Bears, but I’m still not sure about them. Christian Ponder once again had a terrible game, completing 11 of 17 for 91 yards and an interception. In his last 7 games, he’s 107 of 191 (56.0%) for 970 yards (5.1 YPA), 6 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. Adrian Peterson is awesome, but you can’t win in the NFL without at least decent quarterback play.

Illustrating this, they are 2-4 this year when Ponder completes 60% or fewer of his passes and 4-2 when Adrian Peterson rushes for 5.0 yards per carry or less. Against Green Bay, Peterson went off for 210 yards and they still lost 23-14. Last week, they beat the Bears by 7, but not because of their offense. Their defense returned one Jay Cutler interception for a touchdown and another one to the goal line, setting the Vikings up with an easy touchdown. Their offense only really led one good drive all game and Peterson did almost all of the work. Unless Ponder can start playing at least serviceably, they’re going to struggle to consistently lead good drives.

That win last week pushed the Vikings at 6-1 SU at home, as opposed to 1-5 SU on the road, and that one home loss was against Tampa Bay on a Thursday Night, when weird things happen. At home, they are 5-2 ATS and they are 1-5 ATS on the road. Maybe it shouldn’t be so surprising that they upset the Bears last week, especially in kind of a fluky way. They’re a good home team. Winning on the road is another issue. That same Bears team blew them out on the road 2 weeks prior.

They’re also in a bad spot as non-divisional road dogs off a win as divisional home dogs. Teams are 33-52 ATS in this spot since 1989. After such a huge divisional win last week, they could easily be flat for St. Louis. Going off that, the Vikings are in the middle of a very tough stretch right now. Since week 10, they’ve faced the Lions, the Bears, the Packers, and the Bears. Now they have the Rams before finishing up with the Texans and the Packers. They’ve played 4 straight games against divisional foes and then after this they have an 11-2 Houston squad and the division leading Packers. Think they might be in a bit of a breather game situation against the Rams?

Speaking of those Rams, they’re actually playing some nice football lately. Since their bye, they’ve covered in 4 of 5, with that one non-cover coming against the Jets, in a game that the Jets had all the trends on their side. They tied the 49ers, beat the 49ers, and got road wins as dogs in Buffalo and Arizona as dogs. Improved health on their offensive line is to thank and this week they get even healthier as Danny Amendola is expected to return.

We are getting some line value with the Vikings using the net points per drive method as that says this line should be a pick em. The Vikings are 20th in net points per drive at -0.14, while the Rams are 25th at -0.40. If we take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game per team), and factor in 2.5 points for home field, we get that this line should be a true pick em. However, that doesn’t hold up to DVOA, which has the Vikings just one spot better than the Rams, who are 19th, and it certainly doesn’t hold up to weighted DVOA, which weights more heavily recent games. The Rams rank 19th in that one as well, but the Vikings are 23rd.

Finally, I also really like that the public is all over Minnesota off of that win against the Bears. I love fading the public on heavy leans, especially heavy leans on dogs. The public always loses money in the long run. This is a breather game for a Vikings team that struggles to move the ball aerially and to play on the road against an underrated and finally healthy Rams team. I like the Rams for a significant play. They’re also my survivor pick in a bad week for survivor picks.

Public lean: Minnesota (70% range)

St. Louis Rams 20 Minnesota Vikings 12 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, GB, SD, PIT, DAL, DEN, DET, SEA)

Pick against spread: St. Louis -2.5 (-110) 3 units

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St. Louis Rams: Week 15 NFL Power Rankings (#18)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 15 NFL Power Rankings, Rams

Last week: 21 (+3)

Record: 6-6-1

Net points per drive: -0.40 (25th)

DVOA: -5.3% (19th)

Weighted DVOA: -6.3% (19th)

Since the bye, the Rams have tied and beaten the 49ers, gotten road wins in Buffalo and Arizona, and only lost to the Jets, who were in a great spot. Improved health is to thank. They won’t win in Seattle, but they should win at least one of two against Minnesota in St. Louis or the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay.

Studs

WR Brandon Gibson: Caught 6 passes for 100 yards and touchdown on 9 attempts on 38 pass snaps, 4.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

DT Kendall Langford: 2 sacks on 17 pass rush snaps, 2 assists

DT Michael Brockers: 2 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 1 quarterback hurry on 19 pass block snaps, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 6 stops

Duds

RB Steven Jackson: Rushed for 64 yards (32 after contact) and a touchdown on 19 attempts, 2 broken tackles, caught 1 pass for 9 yards on 2 attempts, 1 drop

WR Chris Givens: Caught 3 passes for 25 yards on 10 attempts on 43 pass snaps, 5.3 YAC per catch, 2 drops

CB Janoris Jenkins: Allowed 4 catches for 27 yards on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 5 solo tackles, 4 stops, 5 missed tackles

LOLB JoLonn Dunbar: 1 solo tackle, 5 assists, 1 stop, 3 missed tackles, 1 penalty, 1 quarterback hit on 12 blitzes, allowed 2 catches for 11 yards and a touchdown on 2 attempts, 1 interception

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St. Louis Rams at Buffalo Bills: Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 14 NFL Picks, Bills, Rams

St. Louis Rams (5-6-1) at Buffalo Bills (5-7)

This is a matchup of two teams that are below .500, but actually playing good football over the last few weeks. Since the bye, the Bills have played the Texans and Patriots close on the road, beaten Miami, lost in Indianapolis by only a special teams touchdown, and blew out the Jaguars. The Rams, meanwhile, are 2-1-1 since the bye, with a win and tie against the 49ers, a blowout win over the Cardinals, and only a home loss to the Jets, in which the Jets had the huge trends edge, as a blemish. Why are these teams playing better football? Well, let’s take a look.

Starting with the Bills, Mario Williams had a wrist procedure during the bye and has been playing much better football of late. After recording 4 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 13 quarterback hurries in his first 7 games, he has 5 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 11 quarterback hurries in last 5 games. Left tackle Cordy Glenn also returned from a 3 game absence for that first game after the bye, which has stabilized their offensive line, important because Ryan Fitzpatrick is a much noticeably better quarterback when he’s not pressured, more than most.

Also, cornerback Aaron Williams left with an injury in that Houston game and hasn’t played since. Williams was one of the worst defensive backs in the league before getting hurt, so his absence has really been addition by subtraction. As for the Rams, they’ve also gotten healthier. Rodger Saffold returned at left tackle 4 weeks ago, not so coincidentally when their play improved, and Scott Wells returned at center 2 weeks ago, which also helped things.

I think the Rams are more likely to continue playing well than the Bills for several reasons. For one, center Eric Wood is out for the Bills, which really hurts their offensive line. Given Fitzpatrick’s reliance on his offensive line, it’s not surprise this offense went in the tank last season when Wood got hurt. Aaron Williams is also expected to return for the Bills, which probably isn’t a good thing. As for the Rams, Danny Amendola is expected to see the most action he’s seen in 2 weeks this week, which gives Sam Bradford by far his favorite target back. Chris Givens stepped up in his absence as well and if he can continue that, that would give Bradford two weapons to work with downfield, which is sadly a new record for him.

The trends also favor the Rams. Teams are 102-57 ATS as dogs before being favorites since 2011, including 114-57 ATS since 2008 when the opponent will next be dogs and 34-14 ATS when all 3 games will be non-divisional (current game, next game, opponent’s next game). The Rams host the Vikings next week and will be favored and the Bills host the Seahawks and will be dogs; all 3 of those games are obviously non-divisional. Going off that, non-conference favorites are 19-36 before being non-conference dogs since 2002. We’re not really get any line value (real line is Buffalo -3.5, according to net points per play, but the Rams hold a slight edge in DVOA) or chance to fade the public (equal action), but I like the Rams for a small play.

Public lean: Buffalo (50% range)

Sharps lean: STL 12 BUF 8

Final thoughts: Amendola is out for the Rams, but there is no change.

St. Louis Rams 17 Buffalo Bills 16 Upset Pick +140

Pick against spread: St. Louis +3 (-110) 2 units

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St. Louis Rams: Week 14 NFL Power Rankings (#21)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 14 NFL Power Rankings, Rams

Last week: 22 (+1)

Record: 5-6-1

Net points per drive: -0.45 (25th)

DVOA: -4.3% (20th)

Weighted DVOA: -4.5% (20th)

Studs

RG Harvey Dahl: Did not allow a pressure on 47 pass block snaps, run blocked for 7 yards on 4 attempts

WR Chris Givens: Caught 11 passes for 92 yards on 13 attempts on 43 pass snaps, 3.5 YAC per catch

LOLB JoLonn Dunbar: 10 solo tackles, 3 assists, 7 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 12 blitzes, allowed 3 catches for 22 yards on 4 attempts

SS Quentin Mikell: Allowed 2 catches for 26 yards on 3 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 2 stops

MLB James Laurinaitis: 11 solo tackles, 3 assists, 10 stops, 1 quarterback hit on 5 blitzes, was not thrown on

RE Eugene Sims: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 31 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

Duds

LG Robert Turner: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 47 pass block snaps, run blocked for 11 yards on 4 attempts

TE Lance Kendricks: Caught 3 passes for 32 yards on 5 attempts on 28 pass snaps, 4.0 YAC per catch, 2 drops

WR Brandon Gibson: Was not thrown to on 45 pass snaps, 1 penalty

WR Austin Pettis: Caught 2 passes for 12 yards on 4 attempts on 35 pass snaps, 1.5 YAC per catch

CB Janoris Jenkins: Allowed 9 catches for 74 yards on 11 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 missed tackles, 2 quarterback hurries on 2 blitzes

CB Cortland Finnegan: Allowed 6 catches for 81 yards on 7 attempts, 5 solo tackle, 1 missed tackle

ROLB Rocky McIntosh: 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 2 missed tackles, allowed 1 catch for 5 yards on 2 attempts

RE Robert Quinn: Did not record a pressure on 15 pass rush snaps, 2 penalties, no solo tackles

DT Kendall Langford: 1 quarterback hurry on 26 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop

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San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams: Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 13 NFL Picks, 49ers, Rams

San Francisco 49ers (8-3) at St. Louis Rams (4-7)

Colin Kaepernick is now officially quarterback of the 49ers and it’s definitely the right move. I don’t think the 49ers ever really scared anyone with Alex Smith under center. He wasn’t why they were winning. Kaepernick gives this team such a higher upside. He allows them to use the whole playbook with his running ability and big arm and he hasn’t seemed fazed by the mental part of running such a complex offense, which is key. He also makes their running game even better because defenses have to respect the deep ball and Kaepernick’s own running ability.

They’ve looked so much better since he’s been the starter, blowing out Chicago and then beating the Saints in New Orleans, a huge win in a tough place to play against a team that actually knew he was coming for the first time in his career. Neither St. Louis nor Chicago really game planned for him, most likely. Smith got hurt against St. Louis and there was no way for them to know that Kaepernick would be coming into the game, while Chicago probably thought, along with the rest of us, that Smith would start against them until he was surprisingly ruled out Monday morning for a Monday Night Football game.

This week, Kaepernick takes the show to St. Louis. St. Louis is coming off a win as divisional road dogs and they are now home dogs, a situation teams are 28-14 ATS in since 1989. However, San Francisco is road favorites after winning as road favorites, a situation teams are 50-30 ATS in since 2002. We’re also getting significant line value with the 49ers, who have the momentum as well, since switching to the superior quarterback.

Using the net points per drive method of computing real line, this line should actually be San Francisco -12.5. San Francisco ranks 2nd in net points per drive, 1st in DVOA, and 2nd in weighted DVOA and with Kaepernick under center, they’re easily one of the top-2 teams in the NFL. St. Louis, meanwhile, is 24th in net points per drive, 21st in DVOA and 20th in weighted DVOA.

That 12.5 number was calculated by taking the difference between San Francisco’s net points per drive and St. Louis’ net points per drive, multiplying by 11 (the amount of drives per game on average) and adding 3 to St. Louis’ side for home field advantage. Like with New England and Houston, it’s not a big play because the public loves the favorite here and the public always loses money in the long run, but San Francisco should be the right side here.

Public lean: San Francisco (80% range)

Sharps lean: SF 22 STL 8

Final update: Very interestingly, the sharps all really like San Francisco, Houston, and New England as touchdown favorites inside the division. Those might be the top-3 teams in the NFL, so it makes sense and the fact that the sharps love them kind of negates the heavy public leans. I don’t want to go higher than 3 on any of them because, on principle, I rarely make big plays on lines higher than a touchdown (what happened between San Francisco and Seattle earlier this year is a perfect example of why), but I can up this one and the Houston one to 2 units. New England is already there.

San Francisco 49ers 27 St. Louis Rams 13

Pick against spread: San Francisco -7.5 (-110) 2 units

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