Rams

St. Louis Rams: Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#22)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Rams

Last week: 22 (+2)

Record: 4-6-1

Net points per drive: -0.44 (24th)

DVOA: -6.1% (21st)

Weighted DVOA: -6.6% (20th)

Tier 6: Not going to make the playoffs, but they can pull some upsets down the stretch

St. Louis Rams

Studs

LT Rodger Saffold: Did not allow a pressure on 21 pass block snaps, run blocked for 17 yards on 3 attempts, 1 penalty

RB Steven Jackson: Rushed for 139 yards (70 yards after contact) on 24 attempts, 1 broken tackle

WR Chris Givens: Caught 5 passes for 115 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts on 19 attempts, 9.0 YAC per catch

CB Janoris Jenkins: Allowed 2 catches for 30 yards on 7 attempts, 2 interceptions, 4 solo tackles, 2 stops

MLB James Laurinaitis: 8 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops, 2 quarterback hurries on 10 blitzes, 1 penalty, allowed 4 catches for 32 yards on 5 attempts, 1 interception

SS Quentin Mikell: Did not allow a completion on 4 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 penalty, 1 quarterback hurry on 2 blitzes

Duds

LG Robert Turner: Allowed 2 quarterback hurries on 21 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for -1 yard on 1 attempt

RE Robert Quinn: 3 quarterback hurries on 46 pass rush snaps, 2 penalties, no tackles

DT Michael Brockers: Did not record a pressure on 37 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

DT Kendall Langford: Did not record a pressure on 35 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Rams

St. Louis Rams (4-6) at Arizona Cardinals (4-6)

The rule of thumb in NFC West divisional matchups is to take the home team. Since 2007, no division covers more often at home than the NFC West, going 106-79 ATS at home, and conversely no team fails to cover more often on the road, going 74-102 ATS. Given that, it’s reasonable to think that when these teams get together and play a divisional contest, the home team generally covers and they do, going 38-26 ATS since 2007. NFC West divisional games have also gone under the total 40 times out of 64 since 2007, so I like the under as well.

However, this week it might not be a good idea to take Arizona, the home favorite. This is a sandwich game for them, meaning they are favorites after losing as dogs before being dogs. Teams are 58-81 ATS in this spot since 2008. The logic is that good teams in that situation will see this game as an easy rest game to get back on track and not take their opponent seriously and that bad teams don’t deserve to be favorites in the first place. Arizona is the latter.

They might not overlook divisional St. Louis and in fact, when the middle game is divisional and the two “bread” games are non-divisional, the trend is just 12-16 ATS since 2008, 22-25 ATS going back to 2002 to get a larger sample size. However, that wouldn’t be why they would fail to cover because they are a bad team and bad teams shouldn’t be favored. Home favorites are 27-38 ATS since 2008 before being road dogs in two straight and the Cardinals go to the Jets and Seahawks in their next 2.

In fact, unless they’re favored at home week 15 against Detroit, Arizona might not be favored the rest of the way (5 games). Favorites before being dogs in 5 or more straight are 11-24 ATS since 2008. Favorites after being dogs in 4 straight are also 22-31 ATS since 2008, a situation Arizona is in. All of these are ways of showing that bad teams struggle to cover as favorites.

We aren’t really getting any line value at first glance. Using the yards per play differential method, this line should be St. Louis -2 and using the rate of sustaining drives differential method, this line should be Arizona -4.5 and when you average those out, you get right around the Arizona -1.5 this line really is at. However, that doesn’t take into account that Arizona has no momentum and has been playing terribly ever since Kevin Kolb got hurt. John Skelton has been benched for Ryan Lindley, a 6th round rookie who might even be worse and he’s favored by 1.5 points. That’s the definition of a bad team being favored.

It also doesn’t take into account that St. Louis is getting healthier on the offensive line. Rodger Saffold returned two weeks ago and solidified the left tackle position. Scott Wells, a Pro-Bowl caliber center, returns this week, which will move Robert Turner, who has actually played well in his absence, to left guard. Assuming Wells is truly healthy and Turner continues to play well at left guard, this line really only has a problem at right tackle, which will make life a lot easier for Sam Bradford. Danny Amendola is out for this one, but things are looking up for the Rams injury wise.

I liked St. Louis better when Arizona was publicly backed, because I don’t like betting against non-publicly backed favorites this week because the odds makers have had a rough 3 weeks and seem due for a big week. Non-publicly faded dogs covering especially hurt the odds makers because they need favorites and dogs to cover evenly, but also to make money. The public tends to prefer favorites, but when they prefer a dog, it’s normally a risky bet, especially given what’s happened in the last few weeks. The odds makers always win in the long run. When a favorite not publicly backed covers, they get a favorite who covers and they make money (odds makers always win with equal action because of juice).

Because of that and the fact that this is an NFC West divisional matchup, it’s a small play on the Rams. Rather than putting 2 units on the spread and one on the money line, I’m putting all 3 on the money line. Since 1989, there have been 414 teams who have been favorites of less than 2. Of those 414 teams, only 7 of those teams won by exactly 1 point, about 1.7%. It’s not worth the extra 25 cents for something that historically will only hurt me about 1.7% of the time.

Public lean: Arizona (50% range)

Sharps lean: STL 13 ARI 3

Final update: Sharps love St. Louis, but I think I’m going to leave the units where they are.

St. Louis Rams 17 Arizona Cardinals 13 Upset Pick +115 3 units

Pick against spread: St. Louis +1.5 (-110) 0 units

Total: Under 37 (-110) 1 unit

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

St. Louis Rams: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#24)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Rams

Last week: 20 (-4)

Record: 3-6-1

First they got blown out 45-7 by the Patriots and then everyone soured on this team. Then they tied the 49ers and everyone backed them as home favorites against the Jets. Now they’ve lost to the Jets and the public has soured on them so much they are now road dogs in Arizona against Ryan Lindley, a 6th round rookie making his first career start. That’s football for you. We’ll see if the pattern holds.

Studs

C Robert Turner: Did not allow a pressure on 49 pass block snaps, run blocked for 81 yards on 9 attempts

LT Rodger Saffold: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 49 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 3 yards on 2 attempts

ROLB Rocky McIntosh: 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops, was not thrown on

P Johnny Hekker: 5 punts for 250 yards, 1 inside 20, 3 returns for 29 yards, 44.2 net yards per punt

Duds

RB Daryl Richardson: Rushed for 26 yards (12 after contact) on 6 attempts, 2 broken tackles, 1 fumble, 1 penalty, caught 1 pass for 18 yards on 3 attempts, 1 drop, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 8 pass block snaps

DT Kendall Langford: Did not record a pressure on 19 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New York Jets at St. Louis Rams: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Jets, Rams

New York Jets (3-6) at St. Louis Rams (3-5)

Someone check me for a concussion because I really like the Jets this week. The Jets are one of two teams I have not picked to cover once this year, along with the Bengals. Yes, their fans hate me. It may seem weird that this is the week I’m going with the Jets because they seem to be at their lowest point, given all that’s happened in the last week.

However, the Jets always seem to be at their best when they’re at their lowest point. Remember when neither their 1st nor 2nd team offense scored a touchdown all preseason and they were the laughing stock of the football world and then week 1 they crushed the Bills? Remember when they got shut out by the 49ers and then covered in 3 straight weeks? With the team now at 3-6, with all their locker room dirty laundry being aired to the media over the past week, coming off a two straight losses of 21 or more, the Jets are now at their lowest point.

Speaking off 2 straight losses of 21 or more, teams are 35-16 ATS since 2002 coming off back-to-back losses of 21 or more. Teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, embarrassing, and playing for pride in that spot. The Jets are definitely embarrassed and playing for pride. They’re also undervalued and likely to be overlooked. This line has shifted from St. Louis -2 to -3.5 and the 3-5 Rams are now favorites of more than a field goal.

This is an unfamiliar situation for the Rams. How unfamiliar? Well, this is the first time they’ve been favored all year. Teams are 46-67 ATS as favorites of more than 3 after being dogs in 4 straight. This is also just the 8th time they’ve been favored since the start of the 2009 season. Since 2002, they are just 24-38 ATS as favorites.

Meanwhile, since 1989, home favorites are 97-162 ATS before being dogs in 3+ straight. The Rams probably won’t be in this unfamiliar situation again until at least 4 weeks from now when they host Minnesota, if at all the rest of the season. 2 of their next 3 are on the road and their only home game is against San Francisco, when they almost definitely won’t be favored. Meanwhile, they’re simply not good enough to be road favorites anywhere, even in Buffalo week 14.

All of these trends are basically saying that bad teams don’t do well as favorites. Well, this one also says that. Since 2008, teams are 57-81 ATS as favorites off a loss as dogs before being dogs. For good teams, a game like this would represent a breather game, a chance to get an “easy” win after a loss to a tough opponent before facing another tough opponent. For bad teams, it represents a game they probably shouldn’t be favored in. Over that time period, when the game they’re favored in is non-divisional and the other two are divisional (@ San Francisco, vs. NY Jets, @ Arizona), teams are 6-11 ATS. If we go back to 1989 to get a bigger sample size, that trend becomes 23-39 ATS.

I know the Rams didn’t actually lose in San Francisco last week, but it doesn’t seem to matter. Dogs before and after being favorites are 83-118 ATS regardless of the outcome of the first game (26-37 ATS off a win). That tie does make things a little tougher, but not that tough. Teams are 3-7 ATS off a tie and regardless of the outcome of last week’s game, the Rams would be in a bad spot this week.

I already mentioned the sandwich/breather game trend, but here are some more. Teams are 45-66 ATS off a win as double digit dogs, 23-36 ATS off a win as divisional double digit dogs. Favorites after a loss of 1-3 as 10+ dogs are 6-15 ATS since 1989. Home favorites are 10-24 ATS off a road loss in overtime, including 6-17 ATS when the previous overtime loss was as dogs.

If the Rams had won last week in overtime, they’d be in a bad spot. If the Rams had lost last week in overtime, they’d be in a bad spot. And having tied in overtime last week, well they’re still in a bad spot, albeit one with a really small sample size. After playing 75 minutes and taking the 49ers to the brink, the Rams are probably not going to focused for the lowly Jets this week, especially with another divisional road game next on the schedule.

The Jets are also in one more good spot as road dogs off of a road loss. Teams are 80-47 ATS in this spot since 2008. Finally, the Rams are a pretty strong public lean and the public always loses in the long run. There are a few reasons why this isn’t a 5-unit co-pick of the week along with Pittsburgh. For one, the NFC is 25-16 against the AFC this year. Two, we’re actually getting line value with the Rams as the yards per play differential method says they should be 6.5 point favorites and the rate of sustaining drives differential method says they should be 4 point favorites and that’s not taking into account that the Rams now have Danny Amendola and Rodger Saffold healthy, two things that really helped against San Francisco. They’re now 5-1 ATS with Amendola this year and 0-3 ATS without him.

Three, there’s always a chance the Jets are looking forward to a Thanksgiving game with the Patriots immediately after this one, but they simply can’t afford to lose another game if they want to maintain any hope of making the playoffs and I can’t imagine them looking past the Rams having been embarrassed in their last 2 games. They’re playing for pride and always do well at their lowest point, while the Rams are in an unfamiliar spot as favorites could easily overlook this lowly non-conference opponent off a grueling game against San Francisco with another divisional matchup on schedule next. It’s a 4-unit pick.

Public lean: NY Jets (70% range)

Sharps lean: STL 17 NYJ 3

Final update: Sharps do have this at -3, but that probably isn’t the reason why there’s a huge sharps lean on the Rams. I’m going to disagree with them though.

New York Jets 20 St. Louis Rams 16 Upset Pick +165

Pick against spread: NY Jets +3.5 (-110) 4 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

St. Louis Rams: Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#20)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Rams

Last week: 20 (+1)

Record: 3-5-1

On a bye…oh wait…the Rams played last week? But their record didn’t change, so they couldn’t have played right? It wouldn’t be worth busting your ass for 75 minutes if your record didn’t change afterwards right? Fuck ties.

Studs

QB Sam Bradford: 26 of 39 for 275 yards and 2 touchdowns, 3 throw aways, 3 batted passes, 2 spikes, 1 hit as thrown, 2 drops, 103.2 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 16 of 41 drop backs (2 sacks, 8 of 14, 3 throw aways, 1 hit as thrown, 1 drop)

WR Danny Amendola: Allowed 11 catches for 102 yards on 12 attempts on 39 pass snaps, 5.5 YAC per catch, 1 kickoff return for 4 yards, 3 punt returns for 14 yards

LT Rodger Saffold: Did not allow a pressure on 45 pass block snaps, run blocked for 27 yards on 6 attempts

LE Chris Long: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 8 quarterback hurries on 33 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops

DT Michael Brockers: 2 sacks and 3 quarterback hurries on 27 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

DT Kendall Langford: 2 quarterback hits and 1 quarterback hurry on 24 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

RE Robert Quinn: 2 sacks and 3 quarterback hurries on 35 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 2 stops

Duds

WR Brandon Gibson: Caught 3 passes for 47 yards on 5 attempts on 41 pass snaps, 1.7 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 1 penalty

LG Shelley Smith: Allowed 2 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and 2 quarterback hurries on 45 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 16 yards on 4 attempts

CB Trumaine Johnson: Allowed 5 catches for 59 yards on 7 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

RB Isaiah Pead: 4 kickoff returns for 80 yards, 1 fumble, caught 1 pass for 9 yards on 1 attempt on 5 pass snaps

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers: Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 10 NFL Picks, 49ers, Rams

St. Louis Rams (3-5) at San Francisco 49ers (6-2)

The rule of thumb in NFC West divisional matchups is to always take the home team. Since 2007, the NFC West is 104-77 in general at home and they have not only the best ATS winning percentage of any division in football in that time period, they also have the winning home/road winning ATS percentage disparity of any division in football in that time period.

Because of that, it means sense that went they meet for divisional matchups, the home team generally wins and that’s in fact the case. In divisional matchups, the home team is 38-25 ATS since 2007, including 23-12 ATS as home favorites and 7-1 ATS as double digit favorites, which the 49ers are here. The 49ers are also in a good spot as double digit home favorites off of a bye. Teams are 15-7 ATS in this spot since 2002.

The Rams, however, are in a good spot too as double digit divisional dogs are 47-27 ATS before being favorites, including 38-16 ATS before being non-divisional favorites. The Rams host the Jets next weekend and are expected to be favored at home. The Rams are coming off a 45-7 loss to the Patriots. Dogs are 77-49 ATS since 2002 coming off a loss of 28+ or more as a dog. As double digit dogs, those teams are 17-8 ATS. I know they’re coming off a bye, but dogs coming off a loss of 28+ and a bye are 9-4 ATS as dogs since 1989. Meanwhile, there’s a pretty heavy public lean on San Francisco.

As some of you may know, the public killed the odds makers in unprecedented fashion last week, going 12-2 and winning every heavy lean. The odds makers aren’t going broke or anything. They killed the public for the first 8 weeks of the season and are still up on the year, but given that, I would be very nervous to bet on a heavy public lean this week because the odds makers, regardless of whether or not you believe in conspiracy theories, always have a way of bouncing back.

We’re also getting some line value with the Rams. Both the rate of sustaining drives differential metric and yards per play differential metric says this line should be -13.5. This line is -11.5. That might seem like the complete opposite of line value for the Rams, but remember their improving injury situation. Danny Amendola and Rodger Saffold are both question, but expected to play.

Amendola is by far Bradford’s best receiver. Before he got hurt, he was accounting for close to 40% of their receiving yardage by himself. It’s no coincidence that the Rams, 4-1 ATS with him, went 1-2 ATS without him and didn’t win a single game, going from 3-2 to 3-5. Even in the game he got hurt, against Arizona, his absence was noticeable. After he left, Bradford completed just 2 of his final 9 passes. They still won because they had a lead when he got hurt and because Arizona sucks, but they really missed him in his 3 ½ game absence.

Saffold, meanwhile, is his left tackle and while he’s been without him for most of the year and had some success without him, he’s still a significant upgrade over the guys they’ve been trotting out to play left tackle. He’ll help an offensive line that has ranked 29th in pass block efficiency through 8 games this season. Bradford has done a good job of playing well in spite of injuries all around, something he didn’t do last year and something you can attribute to better coaching and a higher level of maturity, but getting Amendola and Saffold is only going to help him.

He should appear noticeably improved with those 2 healthy. Maybe not this week because San Francisco’s defense is so good, but he should still be able to cover the 11.5, when otherwise I would take the 49ers. It’s not a big play or anything though. I also like the under in this one. The under is 40-23 since 2007 in NFC West divisional games. Both of these teams have a higher ranked defense than offense and in their combined 16 games, the under is 10-5-1 this year.

Public lean: San Francisco (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if St. Louis covers)

Sharps lean: STL 10 SF 6

Final update: No change.

San Francisco 49ers 20 St. Louis Rams 9

Pick against spread: St. Louis +11.5 (-110) 1 unit

Total: Under 38.5 (-110) 1 unit

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

St. Louis Rams: Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#21)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Rams

Last week: 21 (-1)

Record: 3-5

I have a lot to write about the Patriots in their section, so I’m going to use this section to talk about the NFL in London. I just don’t think it’s a very good idea. It’s fine having one or two games per year there, but every time we have one, there’s talk about moving a team there and it would make no sense geographically. It’s just too rigorous for the players to travel all the way there and play jet lagged and vice versa for the London team to travel back to the states to play any road games. Plus, with this new stupid Thursday Night schedule, if we had a team in London that teams we’d have, at least once per year, a jet lagged team playing on short rest. Roger Goodell might not see a problem with that, but I do.

Studs

QB Sam Bradford: 22 of 30 for 205 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception, 1 throw away, 1 hit as thrown, 2 drops, pressured on 12 of 33 drop backs (2 sacks, 1 scramble, 4 of 9, 1 interception, 1 throw away, 1 drop, 1 hit as thrown)

RG Harvey Dahl: Did not allow a pressure on 38 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 1 attempt

Duds

SS Quentin Mikell: Allowed 5 catches for 83 yards on 6 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

MLB James Laurinaitis: 3 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 quarterback hit on 11 blitzes, allowed 1 catch for 25 yards on 2 attempts

DT Michael Brockers: Did not record a pressure on 28 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

LE Chris Long: 1 quarterback hurry on 37 pass rush snaps, no tackles

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New England Patriots at St. Louis Rams: Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 8 NFL Picks, Patriots, Rams

New England Patriots (4-3) “at” St. Louis Rams (3-4)

What’s wrong with the Patriots? That’s what people have been asking for 2 weeks. Last week, the answer to that question was nothing. Losing in Seattle to a tough Seahawks team is not an embarrassing loss or a huge upset as some were calling it. Green Bay and Dallas both lost there as well. However, after the Patriots struggled at home to put away the Jets, that question has some more merit. The Patriots didn’t deserve to win that game. If you win the turnover battle, get a safety, and get a special teams touchdown at home, you shouldn’t need overtime to beat the Jets. They should feel like they just lost because they pretty much did.

Patriots fans should be hoping they feel like they lost because Tom Brady is 26-14 ATS off a loss and Bill Belichick is 35-20 ATS. The good news is that they’re also equally good off of overtime, as Belichick is 9-2 ATS off overtime and Brady is 7-1 ATS. More good news: Tom Brady is very good after games where he doesn’t play well, regardless of outcome. After games in which he has 15 or more incompletions, Tom Brady is 23-13 ATS, including 13-5 ATS off a win. Off a win by 3 or fewer, Tom Brady is 14-9 ATS and Belichick is 16-10 ATS.

It’s hard to imagine the Patriots, given how consistently well they play, having another bad game this week off a loss and a near home loss. This is a huge game for them to shut up the media doubters, even after a win. They’ve played a tough schedule in their first 7 games. Their easy games were against the Bills and Titans, both of whom they blew out. The Jets were a only little bit harder last week, but other than that, they’ve played quality opponents. Seattle, Denver, and Baltimore could all easily be playoff teams and Baltimore was a legitimate Super Bowl contender before injuries struck. Arizona, meanwhile, looks like a much more explainable loss now than when it happened, especially since they lost Aaron Hernandez, a huge part of their offensive game plan, during that game and didn’t have time to adjust.

Now the schedule gets easier for the Patriots, starting with an admittedly underrated Rams team this week. After this, they get a bye (more on that later), they’re home for Buffalo and Indianapolis, go to the Jets and Miami, host Houston and San Francisco, then go to Jacksonville and host Miami. Only Houston and San Francisco are better than average teams and both of those games are in Foxboro. In 2010, they started 6-2 before ripping off a stretch of 8 straight wins before a playoff loss and last year they started 5-3 before ripping off a stretch of 10 straight wins before a playoff loss. We could see something similar happen this year.

Back to that bye, that’s another reason why the Patriots will be extra focused this week. Favorite of 7 or more going into a bye are 44-20 ATS since 2002. That makes sense. Good teams tend to be distraction free and take care of business going into a bye. The Patriots also have an advantage given that this game is in London. Having to travel that many time zones is an experience you simply can’t prepare for unless you’ve done so before and the Patriots have not only done so, playing in London in 2009, they blew out the Buccaneers 35-7. The Rams, meanwhile, have never played in London.

Playing in London is also comparable to playing on Thursday Night on short rest and favorites normally do well on Thursday Nights. That makes sense since favorites tend to be experienced, veteran, well coached teams and it makes sense that those types of teams would be better prepared on short rest. Favorites are 68-48 ATS on Thursday Nights. There’s not enough data to include if the same is true in international games, but the logic makes sense. The veteran, experienced, well coached team should have the edge and in this game, that’s the Patriots and that’s not even counting their past experience in London.

One injury note is that Aaron Hernandez did not make the trip for the Patriots and will not play. This doesn’t change my pick, however. In the 3 full games he missed, the Patriots averaged 37.3 points per game. If anything, they’ve been playing worse since he returned. I’m not saying Hernandez being healthy HURTS them, but Tom Brady has always been a next man up guy in the receiving corps and has never been affected by missing receivers, so long as the injury doesn’t happen during a game like the last time Hernandez got hurt.

They could also get Julian Edelman back this week, someone they didn’t gave the last time Hernandez was out, which would allow them to run more 3-wide receiver sets, or they may opt to run more often, which is what they did when Hernandez was out the last time. Brandon Bolden is also expected out, but Shane Vereen looked good in his absence last week.

Either way, I don’t expect the Hernandez injury to affect things much and I still like the Patriots, given the reasons I’ve mentioned and the fact that the favorite/dog disparity is eventually going to close. Dogs are 63-39 ATS this year and neither dogs nor favorites have finished more than 10 games above .500 over the course of a whole season in at least a decade. I like the Patriots for a significant play as long as the line doesn’t go over a touchdown.

Public lean: New England (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if St. Louis covers)

Sharps lean: STL 7 NE 5

Final update: Sharps seem hesitant to bet this game at all because it’s international. I get that, but I still think I have a strong feel on it.

New England Patriots 34 St. Louis Rams 17

Pick against spread: New England -7 (-110) 3 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

St. Louis Rams: Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#20)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Rams

Last week: 18 (-2)

With the trade deadline upcoming this week, the Rams have reportedly made several veterans available for trade. It makes sense that one of these would be Steven Jackson because he’s really their only veteran. He’s got the option to opt out of his contract after this season and he’s already splitting carries and getting outperformed by rookie Daryl Richardson, who appears to be the future. I doubt anything happens because guys never get moved at the deadline, especially big name guys like Jackson, but it’s worth bringing up. A team like the Steelers who needs a short term veteran back seems like a good fit, if anything were to happen.

Studs

C Robert Turner: Did not allow a pressure on 38 pass block snaps, run blocked for 15 yards on 5 attempts

RG Harvey Dahl: Did not allow a pressure on 38 pass block snaps

MLB James Laurinaitis: 11 solo tackles, 3 assists, 8 stops, allowed 3 catches for 31 yards on 4 attempts

SS Quentin Mikell: Was not thrown on, 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops

RE Robert Quinn: 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 3 quarterback hurries on 38 pass rush snaps, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

K Greg Zuerlein: 5 kickoffs, 4 touchbacks, 74.0 yards per kickoff, 19.0 opponent’s average starting distance, 2/2 FG (43, 50)

Duds

TE Lance Kendricks: Caught 2 passes for 5 yards on 4 attempts on 29 pass snaps, 2.0 YAC per catch

CB Janoris Jenkins: Allowed 9 catches for 121 yards and a touchdown on 11 attempts, 8 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle

LOLB JoLonn Dunbar: 3 solo tackles, 2 assists, 3 stops, 3 missed tackles, allowed 5 catches for 40 yards on 5 attempts

LE Chris Long: Did not record a pressure on 38 pass rush snaps, 3 penalties, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]