Rams

Green Bay Packers at St. Louis Rams: Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 7 NFL Picks, Packers, Rams

Green Bay Packers (3-3) at St. Louis Rams (3-3)

It’s funny how much the general public likes to overreact to one game. Last week, everyone was talking about “what’s wrong with the Packers?” and now some people are calling them the best team in the NFL once again. On top of that, they are being very heavily bet as road dogs here. As you may know if you read these picks often, I love to fade the public.

My opinion is that they weren’t as bad as they looked after the loss to the Colts’ and they aren’t as good as they look now. They could easily be 5-1 if it hadn’t been for the touchception and ChuckStrong, but they’re also not as good as they were last year. The passing offense, overall, is not as good and they do seem to miss Greg Jennings, overall. Not last week, but overall. He won’t play in this one. They also don’t run the ball as well as they did last year nor do they pass protect as well. Meanwhile, they’re not dominating the turnover battle like they did last year, predictable if you know anything about turnover differentials.

They still rank just 11th in yards per play, while St. Louis ranks 15th. The yards per play method of computing the “real” line actually suggests this line should be St. Louis by 2.5. In terms of rate of sustaining drives differential, they rank 8th, while St. Louis ranks 21st, but it’s pretty crowded in the middle, as you would expect if you’ve been watching teams this season, and that method of computing the “real” line suggests this should be a pick em. Either way you’re getting line value with the Rams.

In order for this line to be valid, the Packers would have to rank 1st in yards per play differential and 3rd in rate of sustaining drives differential. They’re not the powerhouse they were last year and the Rams are hardly the pushover they were last year. Despite injuries in his receiving corps and on his offensive line, Sam Bradford played arguably the best game of his season last week in Miami against a tough defense. He’s really matured and is much better coached. He seems to have taken the leap to the type of quarterback who can succeed with a bunch of “next men up” in the lineup around him, something he couldn’t do last year. Defensively, they’re also much improved. At home, they should be able to keep it close with a Packers team that won’t be nearly as fired to play the Rams as they were to play the Texans last week.

Besides, home dogs are dominating this year, going 22-11 ATS. That speaks that the high level of parity that’s been present this season, something I alluded to earlier. In fact, teams are 19-14 straight up as home dogs this season. I don’t think the Rams will win straight up here, but stranger things have happened. They’ve already pulled 3 upsets as home dogs this season and they are 5-1 ATS overall. Dating back to 2010, home dogs of 6+ are 37-23 ATS. I like being able to fade a heavy public lean with an underrated team against an overrated team and take a home dog, especially a big home dog, at the same time. As long as this line is 6 (a key number in betting circles), it’s a 3 unit pick on a week that’s overall devoid of good plays.

Public lean: Green Bay (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if St. Louis covers)

Sharps lean: STL 21 GB 6

Final update: BJ Raji, Nick Perry, and Sam Shields have all been ruled out for Green Bay, which hurts their defense. Besides, the sharps love St. Louis even at the LV Hilton line of -5.5. I do too. This spread is at least 3 points too high. St. Louis is no pushover and Green Bay is banged up defensively, not the same offensively, and not winning the turnover battle like last year. This is a co-pick of the week for 4 units.

I also think there’s value with the money line at +200. This is what’s known as a teaser killer line. Since 2002, 6 point road favorites are 27-13 straight up. For reference, 5 point road favorites are 19-8 and 7 point road favorites are 37-10, both of which are higher winning percentages. The odds makers don’t mess around. They know if they have Green Bay -6, lots of people will put them in teasers at PK.

St. Louis Rams 24 Green Bay Packers 23 Upset Pick +200

Pick against spread: St. Louis +6 (-110) 4 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

St. Louis Rams: Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#18)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Rams

Last week: 18 (+1)

Record: 3-3

I’m moving the Rams up despite their loss because I think I underrated them last week. I thought Sam Bradford would struggle without several starting offensive linemen and without Danny Amendola like he did last year. It sure looked like he would after he finished 2 of 9 against Arizona after the Amendola injury. However, Bradford seems much more mature and much better coached this season and has just moved right alone to the next man up in the receiving corps, which appears to be Brandon Gibson, who caught 7 passes for 91 yards. He completed 26 of 39 for 315 yards and rushed for another 34 yards and a touchdown on 4 carries against a tough defense. The Rams have to be happy with the progress of their 3rd year quarterback.

Studs

RG Harvey Dahl: Did not allow a pressure on 48 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 13 yards on 2 attempts

C Robert Turner: Did not allow a pressure on 48 pass block snaps, run blocked for 25 yards on 8 attempts

WR Brandon Gibson: Caught 7 passes for 91 yards on 9 attempts on 31 snaps, 2.6 YAC per catch

LOLB JoLonn Dunbar: 4 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle, allowed 4 catches for 30 yards on 5 attempts, 2 sacks and 1 quarterback hit on 12 blitzes

SS Quentin Mikell: Allowed 1 catch for 6 yards on 2 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle, 2 quarterback hurries on 4 blitzes, 1 batted pass

Duds

LT Wayne Hunter: Allowed 3 sacks and 2 quarterback hits on 48 pass block snaps, run blocked for 6 yards on 2 attempts

LG Quinn Ojinnaka: Allowed 2 quarterback hits and 1 quarterback hurry on 48 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 9 yards on 3 attempts

CB Janoris Jenkins: Allowed 9 catches for 92 yards and a touchdown on 9 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 stop, 3 missed tackles

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

St. Louis Rams at Miami Dolphins: Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 6 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Rams

St. Louis Rams (3-2) at Miami Dolphins (2-3)

The Rams appear to be the public’s new hot young team. After an impressive defensive effort and a 14 point home win over the previously undefeated Cardinals, the Rams now stand at 3-2 and are over .500 for the first time since 2006. They are the publicly backed dogs in this game. I love to bet against the public anyway, but there are several reasons why I feel the public is really wrong here and this is coming from someone who had the Rams as a 9 win team before the season.

For one, their opponents, the Arizona Cardinals, were overrated. They were and still are the league’s 28th ranked team in terms of yards per play differential, thanks to a dead last ranking in offensive yards per play. With Kevin Kolb under center, no running game, and no offensive line, the Cardinals’ offensive catastrophe was inevitable. As good as the Cardinals’ defense is, their offense is equally bad. The Rams have a good defense and it’s one of the reasons I liked them before the season, but they’re not as good as they looked last Thursday Night.

Speaking of Thursday Night, weird things happen on Thursday Night. With 3 days to prepare, it’s often ugly football and has some weird results because one team, often the “superior team” is completely unprepared. I don’t put a ton of stock into the results of these games in general so I don’t put a ton of stock into the Rams’ defensive shutdown of an incredibly poor Cardinals offense, especially since these games tend to be lower scoring anyway (this week’s game between Pittsburgh and Tennessee was the first time the total went over on Thursday Night this year).

So their defense is good, but not as good as they looked last Thursday Night, what about the offense? Well, one of the reasons I liked the Rams coming into the season, in addition to a strong defense, was because I was expecting them to have better health offensively. Injuries decimated their offensive line last year, as well as Sam Bradford’s favorite receiver Danny Amendola. So what’s happened this year? Well, injuries have decimated their offensive line, as well as Sam Bradford’s favorite receiver Danny Amendola.

Left tackle Rodger Saffold is out for at least another week. Center Scott Wells is done for the year. Rokevious Watkins, who stepped in at left guard when Robert Turner moved to center, is also out. The Rams are starting 3 guys on their offensive front who either weren’t starters to begin the year or have had to change positions. Left tackle, center, and right guard were their strong positions on the line coming into the year. 2 of those 3 starters are out, leaving Harvey Dahl as the only competent starter on a line otherwise comprised of journeyman. As a result, their offensive line ranks 30th in the league in pass block efficiency.

Meanwhile, the Amendola injury really stings. Without him, they simply have no playmakers in the receiving corps. Even though he missed most of last week with injury, he still accounts for close to 40% of their receiving yards on the season. His absence was noticeable last week. After he left, Bradford completed just 2 of his final 9 passes.

This offense looked awfully similar to the one that ranked dead last in the league in points per game last year and it makes sense considering it’s pretty much the same personnel. Some of that was just Arizona’s defense and an improved and matured Sam Bradford, as well as better coaching, will protect this team from being that bad, but this offense takes a major hit without Amendola and I don’t think this line fully takes that into account (more on that later).

One other major difference between this year’s offense and last year’s offense is Steven Jackson. The now 29-year-old back is averaging just 3.5 YPC, as opposed to the 4.4 YPC he averaged last season. Considering his age and career usage, this is a concern and I don’t expect the injuries to their offensive line and receiving corps to have a positive impact on this. In fact, it’ll probably be negative because he’s now the only one defenses really need to game plan for and they can sell out on the run.

The Dolphins, this week, are the league’s #1 ranked run defense and it’s not even close as no one is within a half yard of their 2.7 YPC average. No lead back has gained more than 3.0 YPC in any game against them so far, very impressive considering they’ve faced, among others, Arian Foster and Darren McFadden. It’s just not a good matchup for the Rams.

Back to this line, injuries not even taken into account, the Rams rank 22nd in the league in yards per play differential. The difference between their yards per play differential and the Dolphins’ is .7 in favor of Miami, which translates to a “real line” of -7.5 in favor of Miami. Given that, we have at least 3.5 points of line value with the Dolphins and that’s if you don’t take Amendola’s injury into account. I think it should be taken into account a good deal and this line has only moved a half point since last week despite the fact that both teams pulled upsets last week, so I don’t think it has really taken that injury into account.

On to the other team that pulled an upset last week, I believe the Dolphins are the team that should be the public’s hot young team. The Dolphins are 2-3 right now, but they could easily be 3-2 or 4-1 having lost two straight games in overtime before last week’s upset win in Cincinnati. Since their week 1 blowout loss in Houston, which doesn’t look so bad now, they’ve blown out Oakland, lost twice in overtime to the Jets and Dolphins, and beaten the Bengals.

The league’s 6th ranked scoring defense in 2011, they’ve picked up right where they left off led by Defensive Player of the Year candidate Cameron Wake. They can run the ball and Ryan Tannehill seems to have settled in to life as a starting quarterback in the NFL. They rank 10th in the league in yards per play differential. I wish there were some applicable trends and that we were getting field goal protection with the Dolphins, but I do feel they are the right side for a small play.

Public lean: St. Louis (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Miami covers)

Sharps lean: MIA 12 STL 7

Final update: No change.

Miami Dolphins 20 St. Louis Rams 10

Pick against spread: Miami -4 (-110) 2 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

St. Louis Rams: Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#19)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Rams

Last week: 22 (+3)

Record: 3-2

The Rams may have won the battle, but lost the war against Arizona last Thursday, losing Danny Amendola for an extended period of time. It’s no surprise that their offense went in the tank without him last week. It’s exactly what they did last season. Sam Bradford has no weapons to work with and injuries have plagued his offensive line once again. Bradford may be matured and improved, but overall, the offense looks eerily similar to the one that ranked dead last in the league with 12.1 points per game last year. They might be a little overrated after their breakout win over an overrated opponent. The good news, they are just one game out of the division for now and over .500 for the first time since 2006.

Studs

RB Steven Jackson: Rushed for 76 yards (53 after contact) on 18 attempts, 1 broken tackle

LOLB JoLonn Dunbar: Allowed 4 catches for 50 yards on 7 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 sack and 3 quarterback hurries on 14 blitzes

FS Craig Dahl: Did not allow a catch on 1 attempt, 5 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 stop, 1 quarterback hurry on 2 blitzes

MLB James Laurinaitis: Allowed 1 catch for 13 yards on 4 attempts, 8 solo tackles, 5 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 8 blitzes

RE Robert Quinn: 3 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 6 quarterback hurries on 53 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 3 solo tackles, 4 stops

LE Chris Long: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 7 quarterback hurries on 53 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 1 solo tackle, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

P Johnny Hekker: 7 punts for 398 yards, 3 inside 20, 5 returns for 76 yards, 46.0 net yards per punt

K Greg Zuerlein: 4 kickoffs, 4 touchbacks, 20.0 opponent’s average starting distance, 1/1 FG (53)

Duds

RT Barry Richardson: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 25 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 19 yards on 5 attempts

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Arizona Cardinals (4-0) at St. Louis Rams (2-2)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 5 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Rams

Arizona Cardinals (4-0) at St. Louis Rams (2-2)

I was going to call the Cardinals the worst 4-0 team ever, but then I remembered the 2009 Broncos. The 2009 Broncos, much like the Cardinals this year, were one of my preseason picks to be among the worst in the league. After the Broncos started 2-0, 3-0, 4-0 etc, I started calling them the worst 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, etc team ever because of how they were winning. I got some negative comments and hate mail for that. The Broncos started 6-0 that year and ended the season 8-8, proving their start was a fluke. The Cardinals could see something similar happen.

So many things point to this being a fluke. One, Larry Fitzgerald is their only good offensive player. If numbers are more your thing, this team ranks tied for 27th in the league in yards per play differential. They’ve won 3 games by 3 or fewer points, giving them only a +30 points differential. Contrary to popular belief, winning close games does even out over time.

This team is 10-1 in their last 11 games decided by a touchdown or fewer. Before that, they were 2-8 in their last 10, with essentially the same group of guys. Teams that win more than 67% of their close games win about 50% of those types of games the following season and the same is true midseason. Teams that win a game by 7 points or less are 586-541 (52.0%) since 1989 in their following game if that game is also decided by a touchdown or less. The only exception, historically, has proven to be an elite quarterback, but the Cardinals don’t have that.

Eventually, this team will even out at around .500. I started riding the correction with this team last week and nailed one of my co-picks of the week (actually I nailed all 3) and I’m going to continue that going forward. Last week I mentioned a trend that teams are 7-12 ATS as a favorite after winning 3 straight as dogs. Well, how do those teams do the following week? Those teams are 5-14 ATS the following week, 2-6 ATS as favorites. It’s a big dynamic switch and it doesn’t affect them just once.

The Cardinals struggled with that last week and should continue to struggle with it this week. One other thing they struggled with last week was defensive line play without Darnell Dockett. He’s expected to be out this week too. Defense is their calling card so his absence is predictably huge. I mentioned the Cardinals’ 27th ranked yards per play differential. The Cardinals lost that battle 6.5 to 4.2 to the lowly Dolphins at home last week and only won because they were able to recover all 6 fumbles that hit the ground. Recovering fumbles on the ground is much more luck than skill.

Now onto the Rams, they’re not great, but they beat a similar team last week, the Seattle Seahawks. I nailed that one too, another one of my co-picks of the week. The Seahawks are known for being a much worse road team than home team, but the NFC West is more or less like this as a whole, especially in the division. Since 2007, home teams are 37-23 ATS in NFC West divisional games. Even the 2011 49ers, who were the best single team this division has seen in that time period, went 1-2 on the road last year, losing in Arizona, winning but failing to cover as large favorites in St. Louis, and then barely coming away with a 2 point win in Seattle (the line was -1.5). St. Louis is a good home team anyway, going 5-3 at home in 2010, the last time they were a respectable team (which I think they are again). This year, they’re 2-0 at home, winning twice as home dogs.

The Cardinals are at a disadvantage traveling on a short week too. Thursday Home teams are 66-48 ATS since 1989. Now, they are 20-23 ATS as dogs and I fell into this trap with Carolina 2 weeks ago (although Carolina eventually became a small favorite with line movement). Veteran, experienced teams, who are normally favored, do seem to have the edge in this game and that edge cancels out the short travel week. However, it’s tough to call the Cardinals that since they have one of the younger rosters in the NFL. St. Louis has the advantage on a short week here, especially with Arizona coming off an overtime game. Teams coming off an overtime game are predictably exhausted the next week, so it’s tough to be 100% for a Thursday Night game. Teams are 3-13 ATS in this situation since 1989, 1-10 ATS on the road.

We’re also getting good line value with the Rams. I mentioned the Cardinals’ 27th ranked yards per play differential several times (even worse last week), they’re at -0.7, which is the same as the Rams. An old gambling formula says to take the difference between two teams’ yards per play differentials and add 3 either way for homefield advantage. That suggests the Rams should be -3 here, not +1.5. In spite of that, the public loves Arizona this week. I love fading the public as often as I can. The odds makers are rich for a reason. The public always loses so they’re never a bad group to disagree with.

Given everything, this is one of my biggest plays of the week. Arizona is a very overrated team, especially likely without Darnell Dockett. They’re in a tough spot coming off an overtime game and then having to travel for a short week and play a team that just played a home game and didn’t have to go anywhere. NFC West divisional games tend to see the home team cover anyway. Instead of putting 4 units on the spread and 1 unit on the money line, I’m putting all 5 on the money line. 1 point games are rare, about 2% of the time, and it’s not worth the extra 15 cents to be protected against something that would hurt me 1% of the time. I’m also putting 1 unit on the under. Neither of these teams are offensive teams anyway and the under is 68-50 on Thursdays since 1989.

Public lean: Arizona (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if St. Louis covers)

St. Louis Rams 17 Arizona Cardinals 10 Upset Pick +105 5 units

Pick against spread: St. Louis +1.5 (-110) 0 units

Over/under: Under 39 1 unit

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

St. Louis Rams: Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#22)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Rams

Last week: 22 (+0)

Record: 2-2

Despite their records, St. Louis and Arizona actually have the same yards per play differential. Neither has a very good one (tied with 27th with Oakland), but the Rams have a very good chance to knock off the undefeated Cardinals this Thursday Night, especially on home with the Cardinals having to travel on short rest. Besides, after the Rams’ win last week, NFC West teams are 37-23 ATS in divisional games at home. Even the 49ers went 1-2 ATS on the road in the division last year. The Rams just beat a similar team in the Seahawks. We could see a big upset on Thursday Night. Stay tuned for my pick tomorrow night.

Studs

CB Bradley Fletcher: Did not allow a completion on 3 attempts, 1 interception, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

CB Janoris Jenkins: Allowed 1 catch for 15 yards on 2 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 quarterback hurry on 2 blitzes

LE Chris Long: 7 quarterback hurries on 24 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop

LE William Hayes: 3 quarterback hurries on 14 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle

K Greg Zuerlein: 5 kickoffs, 4 touchbacks, 71.6 yards per kickoff, 28.8 opponent’s average starting position

Duds

LG Quinn Ojinnaka: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 5 quarterback pressures on 33 pass block snaps, run blocked for 9 yards on 2 attempts

LOLB JoLonn Dunbar: Allowed 5 catches for 39 yards on 5 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 2 assist, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

SS Quentin Mikell: Allowed 1 catch for 7 yards on 1 attempt, 7 solo tackles, 4 missed tackles

MLB James Laurinaitis: 8 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 missed tackles, allowed 1 catch for 5 yards on 1 attempt

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams: Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks, Rams, Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks (2-1) at St. Louis Rams (1-2)

I love to exploit home/road discrepancies so the Seahawks are one of my favorite teams to bet. Since 2007, they are 29-14 ATS at home and 14-28 ATS on the road. Riding that trend is the reason why I’ve selected every Seahawks game correctly this year and for significant units as well. Going on the road to St. Louis this week, I plan to continue using that trend, especially since NFC West teams are just 23-36 ATS on the road over that same time period.

Now onto what happened last week for the Seahawks. Bogus win aside, you can have whatever opinion on what happened, one thing is for sure, the Seahawks really struggled moving the ball. Marshawn Lynch is the only player on this offense I really trust. Russell Wilson is definitely a likeable guy, but the fact is he’s a 3rd round rookie quarterback not getting any help from his receiving corps or offensive line who is subsequently completing 57.3% of his passes for an average of 5.8 YPA, 4* touchdowns and 1 interception.

Last week, against a Packer defense that has had more than its fair share of problems stopping people recently, Wilson was just 10 of 21 for 130 yards and 2 scores and that’s including a 24 yard touchdown that was questionable at best. Aside from the touchception, Wilson only made one big play through the air all night, a 41 yard touchdown strike to Golden Tate. Wilson showed good arm strength on the throw, but it was really just a long pitch and catch aided by a blown coverage. It doesn’t make up for the fact that he didn’t really do anything else notable all night. Aside from that last score, the Seahawks scored just 7 points at home last week.

While the Packers’ defense has had its fair share of issues stopping people recently, the Rams have done a great job of fixing their defense this offseason. Despite playing a fairly tough slate of offenses, Detroit, Washington, and Chicago, their defense actually ranks middle of the pack in terms of yards per play allowed. Facing their easiest test yet, they should be able to put the clamps on a mediocre Seattle offense that ranks 30th in the league in yards per play, especially since Seattle won’t have the 12th man on their side this week.

St. Louis’ offense is pretty mediocre too, but they’re actually averaging 0.5 yards per play more than the Seahawks. The Seahawks have an amazing defense though and St. Louis’ offensive line is held together with scotch tape right now, so don’t expect the Rams to move the ball much, though they do have the better quarterback. Seattle’s point per play differential is .6 yards better than St. Louis’s and an old handicapping formula says to divide to that by .15 and add 3 either way for home field advantage to determine the “real line.”

Using that, Seattle should actually be favored by just 1 points, rather than 2.5 and that doesn’t even take into account that Seattle’s home/road discrepancy over the last few years suggests that more than 3 points should be added for home field advantage in games involving them. At home, they’re outscoring opponents by 4.3 points per game and, on the road, they are getting outscored by 8.7 points per game since 2007.

This is going to be an ugly low scoring game that either side can win and St. Louis has a much better shot than people are giving them. Not only is this line off by at least a couple of points, the public is leaning pretty heavily towards Seattle. The public is getting killed this year, as they normally do, so that’s a pretty bad sign for Seattle. One other trend that works against Seattle is that teams coming off a close (1-3 points) win as home dogs are 19-31 ATS since 2002. Those teams tend to be flat after such a close and emotional upset win and that should be only magnified this week after how last week ended and what happened after it.

If we still had the replacement refs, this would have been my pick of the week because home dogs have been dominating this year under them because they tended to side with the home crowd on calls (Seattle knows that better than anyone). Home dogs were 12-7 SU and 13-6 ATS under the replacement refs, which is insane, but there’s no guarantee that will continue now that they’re gone. Still, that trend is noteworthy and I still like St. Louis to get the win and cover here for a significant play. We’re getting points with a home team that has the superior quarterback against a likely distracted team that sucks on the road in a year where home dogs are winning often.

Public lean: Seattle (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if St. Louis covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): STL 19 SEA 1

Update: Biggest sharps lean of the week, by far. Feeling really good about St. Louis now.

St. Louis Rams 17 Seattle Seahawks 13 Upset Pick +125

Pick against spread: St. Louis +2.5 (-105) 4 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

St. Louis Rams: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#22)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Rams

Last week: 22 (-11)

Record: 1-2

Their defense is the real deal and they’ll play spoiler to a few teams. They’ve had a tough schedule, as well. However, the NFC is loaded and Sam Bradford is not a good enough quarterback to succeed behind this patchwork offensive line, which will remain patchwork for the foreseeable future. Steven Jackson is also at that age where running backs tend to be done and he’s looked the part so far this season, averaging 2.6 YPC or fewer in 2 games and then leaving the other one with an injury after 9 carries. Eventually, they’ll want to think about giving Daryl Richardson some more carries and hoping that he’s capable and that Steven Jackson won’t mind.

Studs

C Robert Turner: Did not allow a pressure on 43 pass block snaps, run blocked for 11 yards on 4 attempts

CB Cortland Finnegan: Allowed 2 catches for 42 yards on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 interception, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist

CB Janoris Jenkins: Allowed 5 catches for 36 yards on 9 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 6 solo tackles, 2 assist, 1 stop

LE Chris Long: 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 31 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop

SS Quentin Mikell: Allowed 1 catch for 10 yards on 1 attempt, 3 quarterback hurries on 7 blitzes, 6 solo tackles, 3 assists, 4 stops

Duds

QB Sam Bradford: 18 of 35 for 152 yards and 2 interceptions, 2 drops, 2 hit as thrown, 1 throw away, 1 spike, 61.1 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 18 of 43 drop backs (6 sacks, 1 scramble, 4 of 11, 1 throw away, 2 hit as thrown)

LT Wayne Hunter: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 6 quarterback hurries on 43 pass block snaps, run blocked for 2 yards on 1 attempt

LG Quinn Ojinnaka: Allowed 1 sack and 4 quarterback hurries on 43 pass block snaps, run blocked for 0 yards on 4 attempts

RT Barry Richardson: Allowed 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits and 1 quarterback hurry on 43 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 1 attempt

TE Lance Kendricks: Caught 3 passes for 18 yards on 6 targets on 33 pass snaps, 2.0 YAC per catch, 1 penalty

WR Brandon Gibson: 2 catches for 19 yards on 5 targets on 31 pass snaps, 2.5 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 1 interception when thrown to

DT Kendall Langford: Did not record a pressure on 29 pass rush snaps, 1 assist

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Rams list Steven Jackson as a game time decision, rule Michael Brockers out

stevenlourie News, Rams

Steven Jackson left the game and did not return last week against the Redskins for reasons many thought were related to a penalty. However, the Rams denied that was the reason and denied a benching at all saying Jackson left the game with a groin injury. Almost a week later, that appears to be true and Jackson is reportedly going to be a game time decision. The good news for his fantasy owners is that the game is a 1 PM start so you’ll have your full lineup of options available if you find out before the game that he can’t go. Backup Daryl Richardson, who rushed for 83 yards on 15 carries in Jackson’s absence last week, should be owned in all formats and makes for a possible flex play if he starts, even against a tough Chicago defense.

Jackson isn’t the only injury St. Louis has to worry about. Eerily similar to what happened last year, the Rams are getting killed with injuries on the offensive line. Scott Wells is probably done for the season. He was signed to a 4 year, 24 million dollar deal this offseason to solidify the center position. Robert Turner, an unproven starter, moved from left guard to center to fill the void and then Turner’s replacement at left guard, 5th round rookie Rokevious Watkins, also got hurt. He will miss this week again, so veteran journeyman Quinn Ojinnaka will once again start in his absence. Meanwhile, oft injured left tackle Rodger Saffold will miss this week and a few more with a knee problem, meaning Wayne Hunter, who was awful with the Jets at right tackle last year, will start at left tackle.

The good news is that Sam Bradford was 8 of 13 with a touchdown under pressure last week, in spite of 2 drops. Good quarterbacks can succeed in spite of poor offensive lines. Bradford couldn’t do it last year, but the 2010 #1 overall pick really looks like a different quarterback this year. If that’s true, the Rams will remain competitive, as they have been so far this season. Bradford gets his toughest test yet this week against the Chicago Bears. One other injury note, rookie 1st round pick Michael Brockers will once again miss this week. He’s yet to play this season with a high ankle sprain and the Rams rank dead last against the run without him. Michael Bush, who will be the every down back in place of the injured Matt Forte, makes for a very intriguing fantasy option this week.

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

St. Louis Rams at Chicago Bears: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, Bears, Rams

St. Louis Rams (1-1) at Chicago Bears (1-1)

In 2010, I consistently ranked the Bears lower than most and lower than their record would have suggested because I simply didn’t trust the combination of Jay Cutler, that offensive line, and Mike Martz to consistently win 3 or 4 games in a row against playoff caliber teams, so I didn’t like their Super Bowl chances. This year, I thought with Martz gone, it was safe to put them near the top of my Power Rankings, but after last week’s explosion, now I’m not so sure.

They’ll still win a lot of games (they won 11 in 2010), but this offensive line is a mess. Cutler didn’t play well last week, but he was pressured on 21 of 35 drop backs. That doesn’t help. Mike Tice is a good offensive line coach, but he’s been too overconfident in the last two years or so, thinking he can coach up a group that just doesn’t have the talent and ignoring the position in the offseason and the draft.

The good news for the Bears, Jay Cutler always takes a shit like that once or twice per year and it’s never meant anything. He’s not declining as a player. He’s still what he’s always been and with a solid supporting cast (except for the offensive line), this team can still win a bunch of games and take a wild card spot in the crowded NFC. I just don’t know how much I like their Super Bowl chances.

The fact that it was a Thursday Night Game had a lot to do with the loss as well. If you haven’t read Jason Whitlock’s article about how hypocritical Roger Goodell is pretending he cares about player safety, while simultaneously expanding Thursday Night Football to a season long thing and trying to expand the season to 18 games, here it is. It’s a very good read and yet another reason to hate Thursday Night Football. You may be thinking, how can you hate Thursday Night football? It’s another night of football. Yes, but it’s also sloppy football and if it’s a good matchup, it’s cheating us out of the opportunity to watch it under normal circumstances.

Last week it was Packers/Bears, two bitter rivals and two of the better teams in the National Football League, and what we got, because it was on Thursday, was a sloppy mess of two tired and unprepared teams. If that game had been on Sunday Night football or Monday Night football or time slot other than Thursday Night Football, it would have probably have been one of the best games of the week. Instead, it was painful to watch.

If you don’t believe me, look at the over/under record for as far back as there is data (1989). Since 1989, the over has won 50 times and the under has won 67 times. These are typically games that are much lower scoring than they are expected to be and than they probably should be, and on top of that, it risks injury for players playing tired. Roger Goodell has never played football. He doesn’t understand that, or maybe he just doesn’t care.

Home favorites are 46-23 ATS since 1989 on Thursday Night, so the Bears were at a huge disadvantage. I went against that trend last week, only because I had a good reason. The Packers had really struggled the week before and the Bears had not, so the Packers would have more to work on during the week and be at a bigger disadvantage on a short week. Apparently not. Still, it’s important not to put a ton of value into that loss.

However, there was a big line movement from last week to this week on this game as the line was -10.5 last week and is -7.5 now, which is a big overreaction to one week. Matt Forte’s injury is a factor a bit, but Michael Bush can carry a load and the Bears will have had 10 days off since that big loss. Teams are 42-28 ATS since 2008 coming off Thursday Night football (excluding teams coming off week 1 Thursday Night games).

That being said, I still feel like the Rams, one of my preseason underrated teams, is still being underrated. This team has played well in their first 2 games, almost knocking off Detroit in Detroit and then beating an upstart Washington team in St. Louis last week. I know the Redskins suffered key injuries in that game on defense and that made it easier, but the Rams suffered key injuries on offense, particularly the offensive line, and survived.

Missing 3 starters, the Rams’ offensive line isn’t doing too well right now, but they seem to have schemed around that and Sam Bradford is doing a much better job of getting the ball out quickly than he did last year. Still, Chicago has a good pass rush, so he will be under pressure, but the Rams have a good pass rush too and the Bears’ offensive line is horrendous, so Cutler will be under pressure as well.

On top of that, this is a potential breather game for the Bears. They’re coming off a loss as an underdog and will almost definitely be underdogs next week in Dallas. Teams in that situation are 49-77 ATS since 2008. It’s unclear, however, if this will be a factor for them needing to make a statement win and after 10 days rest.

I’m pretty torn on this one. On one hand, we’re getting good value with the Bears because of an overreaction and while Jay Cutler has had trouble in big games recently, he’s 5-1 ATS as favorites of 7+ since joining the Bears. They’ve had 10 days to rest and even though this is a potential breather game for them, it might not end up being that because they need to make a statement and because they’ve had so much rest. They Rams are also public underdogs, despite the overreaction in the line, and I hate to pick the public dog in that situation.

At the same time, the Rams are really underrated. These teams also are dead equal in yards per play differential, which is my favorite stat and one I feel is the best indicator of future success. I also feel like both of these teams are going to end up in the playoffs and there’s just not a 4.5 point difference between them (3 points is home field advantage). I’m just going to take the points and hope for a backdoor cover that makes this less than a 7 point game or that the game will just be naturally close. My gut feeling is this won’t be a blowout. If this were the -10.5 it was before last week, St. Louis might have been one of my biggest picks of the week, but there’s a huge line overreaction here and I hate picking public dogs when there’s a huge line overreaction because typically that means I’m falling for the overreaction.

Public lean: St. Louis (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Chicago covers)

Chicago Bears 24 St. Louis Rams 17

Pick against spread: St. Louis -7.5 (-110) 1 unit