Rams

St. Louis Rams: Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#11)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Rams

Last week: 11 (+1)

Record: 1-1

Every year, there is one team that goes from 5 wins or fewer to the playoffs. I have a feeling that it’s going to be an NFC team this year, either the Rams, Redskins, or Buccaneers. I’m sticking with my preseason prediction here and putting the Rams in. They’ve looked just as I’ve expected through the first 2 games, almost beating Detroit in Detroit and beating the Redskins at home in St. Louis.

Studs

QB Sam Bradford: 26 of 35 for 310 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception, 1 hit as thrown, 1 batted pass, 1 drop, 99.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 14 of 38 drop backs (2 sacks, 1 scramble, 6 of 11, 1 hit as thrown, 1 drop, 1 touchdown)

WR Danny Amendola: 15 catches for 160 yards and a touchdown on 16 attempts on 38 pass attempts, 5.5 YAC per catch 1 drop

LOLB JoLonn Dunbar: Allowed 2 catches for 2 yards on 3 attempts, 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, 6 stops

CB Cortland Finnegan: Allowed 2 catches for 7 yards on 3 attempts, 1 interception, 4 solo tackles, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle

LE Chris Long: 8 quarterback hurries on 29 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

Duds

RG Harvey Dahl: Allowed 2 quarterback hurries on 41 pass block snaps, 1 penalty

CB Janoris Jenkins: Allowed 5 catches for 120 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 5 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

DT Kendall Langford: 1 quarterback hit on 30 pass rush snaps, no tackles

RE Eugene Sims: Did not record a pressure on 27 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

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Rams to be without 2 starting offensive linemen this week, Rodger Saffold questionable

stevenlourie News, Rams

Injuries were a huge issue for the Rams last year, especially in the secondary and on the offensive line. This year, it appears the injuries are starting again, at least on the offensive line. When the Rams play the Redskins this week, they will be without starting left guard Rokevious Watkins and starting center Scott Wells.

The Watkins injury is not serious. Watkins is a mere 5th round rookie and left guard would have been a weakness regardless. Watkins predictably struggled in his NFL debut last week and the drop off from him to Quinn Ojinnaka, his replacement, probably won’t be noticeable. In fact, it might be a positive. However, Wells’ injury is more serious. Not only is it more long term, as the Rams placed him on the NFL’s new retractable IR, meaning he’ll miss at least 6 weeks and possibly the entire season, but Wells is also a much better player. ProFootballFocus’ 4th ranked center in 2011, the Rams signed Wells to a 4 year, 24 million dollar deal this offseason, expecting him to help solidify the line and anchor the running game. Instead, it will be career backup Robert Turner starting for at least the next few weeks.

The good news for the Rams is that Rodger Saffold was only listed as questionable and he is expected to suit up after practicing this week. It looked a lot more serious than that at first, as it was a neck injury and he was down for a while, but the Rams appear to have caught a break. When healthy, Saffold is an above average player at the most important offensive line position and obviously a huge upgrade over Jets castoff Wayne Hunter, who would have started in his absence. Saffold held his own against a tough Detroit pass rush last week, not allowing a single pressure on 22 pass plays before leaving with injury, and should be able to do so again this week against an also tough Washington pass rush.

For all the criticism their offensive line got in the offseason, they only allowed Bradford to be pressured on 9 of 30 drop backs last week, a very solid 30.0% pressure rate. A lot of that has to do with Bradford being back in a short throw, west coast offense, like he was in 2010, when he and the Rams had a decent season. They have a solid defense and they almost pulled the upset in Detroit last week, so they have a good chance to actually seal the deal this week and pull the upset at home, where they were 5-3 in 2010, against a young Redskin team.

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Washington Redskins at St. Louis Rams: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Commanders, Rams

Washington Redskins (1-0) at St. Louis Rams (0-1)

I had the Rams as one of my underrated teams coming into the season. They improved 6 games in 2010, but, as could have been predictable, regressed 5 games last year. Teams that have a large improvement in win total typically regress the following season and vice versa. They should bounce back this year. Teams that regress 5 games win an average of 1.6 more the following season. The Rams were destroyed by injuries last year and should have better health in the secondary and on the offensive line, where they also added key free agents. A healthier offensive line should lead to a healthier and better Sam Bradford under center, while, on the defensive side of the ball, they have one of the league’s best defensive lines and should be able to win some games with strong defense, running the football, and decent quarterback play.

The idea with picking underrated and overrated teams before the season was to bet on them (or against them for overrated teams) until they proved me wrong or the odds makers caught up. In 7 games involving these teams week 1, I went 5-2 ATS so I will be continuing that this week as I post recommendations for you to bet on nfl football, unless I have been proven wrong on a team.

I haven’t exactly been proven wrong on the Rams. They played about as well as I thought they would against the Lions, as I nailed my 5 unit pick (+7.5). It took a late Lions’ comeback to beat the Rams in Detroit, which is definitely an accomplishment for this team after the season they had last year. However, there are two concerns with them.

They lost two starters on the offensive line to injury, center Scott Wells and left tackle Rodger Saffold against the Rams. Part of my reasoning for an improved Rams team was an improved offensive line, with Scott Wells coming in and Rodger Saffold coming back from injury. That can’t really happen if both are hurt. The other thing was that Steven Jackson looked pretty done. History suggests he should have one more good year in him, but that’s no guarantee and he was just held to 53 yards on 21 carries by a Lions run defense that ranked 28th in the league in 2011. If he is done, three things will need to happen. The coaching staff will need to reduce his role. He will have to accept this reduced role without being upset. And rookies Isaiah Pead and Daryl Richardson will have to prove themselves capable of larger roles. That’s easier said than done, but if they can do that, they should still be able to run the conservative offense they’ll need to run to win games.

The good news is that Saffold is expected to be back for this game. He’s always been good when healthy and held his own against a strong Lions pass rush last week before going down and should be able to do the same this week against a strong Redskins pass rush. However, without Wells, they now have 3 holes on the offensive line (left guard, center, right tackle), so Bradford will be under some pressure in this one. That could also hurt their running game, which they really need to get back on track. They have a good defense and if they run the ball and make life easy for Sam Bradford, they can win some games. I haven’t quite even up on Steven Jackson yet though.

The Redskins held the Saints’ running game in check last week, but only because the Saints had to abandon the run early. This was the 18th ranked run defense in 2011 and they return a similar group of personnel, so they can be run on if the Redskins’ offense doesn’t force the Rams to abandon the run. The Redskins can also be thrown on. Their secondary and their defense is general is going to be a weakness. Even though the Saints’ offense was on the field for a league low 20:50 minutes last week, they still scored 3 touchdowns and a field goal and had 358 yards of offense.

So the big question is can Robert Griffin do what he did last week? I’m going to say no, for two reasons. The first is that he’s a rookie. He’s going to have some ups and downs. Even the best rookies do. Last week was definitely an up, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be that good again this week, especially against a better defense. St. Louis kept Detroit in check last week on the road. Now they’re at home, where they are a better team. In 2010, their last good season, they were 5-3 at home, as opposed to 2-6 on the road.

I’m taking the Rams for a pretty sizable bet for several reasons. I still think the Rams are underrated, despite a solid showing last week, while Washington might be a little bit overrated. They had a very good performance last week, but the Saints aren’t the normal Saints and Griffin, by his nature as a rookie, will be inconsistent. He could look more like a rookie this week against a tougher Rams defense.

The Redskins’ defense, meanwhile, is a concern. Their defense wasn’t great last year, ranking 21st in scoring. Some of that had to do with the offense’s poor play, leading to the defense having to see the field more than average, but the Saints proved last week that the Redskins have some problems defensively as they put up a lot of yards in the little time they actually saw the field. If the Redskins’ defense is on the field around 30 minutes this week, Bradford and company should be able to move the ball against them and keep this a close game.

I think this will be a close game either way and I feel like the line should be something like -2 or -3 in favor of St. Louis (3 points for home field advantage), so there’s definitely line value. As long as I’m getting more than 3 points with St. Louis, I’m making a pretty sizeable bet. I don’t think Washington has proven enough yet to be worth being road favorites or more than 3, especially against an underrated Rams team.

Public lean: Washington (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if St. Louis covers)

St. Louis Rams 23 Washington Redskins 20 Upset Pick +160

Pick against spread: St. Louis +3.5 (-110) 3 units

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St. Louis Rams: 2012 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#12)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Rams

Last week: 12 (+0)

Record: 0-1

And here’s the other half of the controversial prediction. On one hand, I nailed the Rams/Lions game. The Rams showed they were a better team than last year on both sides of the ball. On the other hand, my prediction of the Rams in the playoff only makes sense if the 49ers don’t prove me wrong. If Alex Smith improbably becomes a true franchise quarterback at age 28, proving Jim Harbaugh to be a genius, allowing them to win in spite of the regressed turnover differential and more injuries they almost definitely will suffer, the Rams don’t have much of a chance to get in the playoffs as a wild card in a loaded NFC. I’m sticking with this one more week. We’ll see what happens this week.

A few concerning things for the Rams, they lost two starters on the offensive line to injury, center Scott Wells and left tackle Rodger Saffold. Part of my reasoning for an improved Rams team was an improved offensive line, with Scott Wells coming in and Rodger Saffold coming back from injury. That can’t really happen if both are hurt. The other thing was that Steven Jackson looked pretty done. History suggests he should have one more good year in him, but that’s no guarantee and he was just held to 53 yards on 21 carries by a Lions run defense that ranked 28th in the league in 2011. If he is done, three things will need to happen. The coaching staff will need to reduce his role. He will have to accept this reduced role without being upset. And rookies Isaiah Pead and Daryl Richardson will have to prove themselves capable of larger roles. That’s easier said than done, but if they can do that, they should still be able to run the conservative offense they’ll need to run to win games.

Studs

CB Cortland Finnegan: Allowed 6 catches for 46 yards on 8 attempts, 1 interception, 9 solo tackles, 3 stops and 1 missed tackle on 20 run plays

CB Bradley Fletcher: Allowed 2 catches for 12 yards on 2 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 3 solo tackles on 17 run snaps

K Greg Zuerlein: 6 kickoffs, 4 touchbacks, 65.0 yards per kickoff, 19.5 average starting distance, 3/3 FG (29, 46, 48)

Duds

RT Barry Richardson: Allowed 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 1 quarterback pressure on 31 pass block plays, run blocked for 4 rushing yards on 2 carries

SS Quentin Mikell: Allowed 5 catches for 65 yards on 5 attempts, 7 solo tackles, 2 missed tackles, and 2 run stops on 20 run snaps

DT Kendall Langford: 0 sacks, quarterback hits, or quarterback pressures on 26 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle on 14 run snaps, 1 penalty

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St. Louis Rams extend MLB James Laurinaitis

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Offseason Moves 2012, Rams

James Laurinaitis is a very talented linebacker. A 2009 2nd round pick, he has graded out positively overall over the past 3 years as a starter and ranked 14th overall among middle linebackers in 2010 on ProFootballFocus. He’s managed 100+ tackles in each of his first 3 years in the league, good for a combined 376 tackles, a whopping 310 of which were solo. Heading into the final year of his rookie deal, the Rams were known to be working on a long term extension with Laurinaitis and agreed to terms with him today on a 5 year, 41.5 million dollar extension with 23.5 million of that guaranteed.

The issue is that middle linebackers just didn’t get paid that much money this offseason or even historically really. Curtis Lofton, Stephen Tulloch, and David Hawthorne got 27.5 million, 25.5 million, and 19 million respectively over 5 years. Laurinaitis gets 41.5 million, with a whopping 23.5 million guaranteed. Is Laurinaitis really that much better of a player than those guys? In a passing league, that is just too much money for a non-rush linebacker, with rare exceptions. Look at the deal Patrick Willis got 2 years ago. Willis got 7 years, 53.51 million with 29 million guaranteed. That’s less money per year than Laurinaitis. Willis did get more years and more guaranteed money, but he’s a significantly superior player.

The only recent deal that compares to this one is the 5 year, 42.5 million dollar deal to the Browns gave to D’Qwell Jackson this offseason and that deal looked pretty bad at the time too and even worse when guys like Lofton, Tulloch, and Hawthorne got significantly less. Jackson also got just 10.4 million guaranteed. Laurinaitis’ deal is worse because of the larger amount of guaranteed money and because the Rams had 3 deals to similar caliber players to use as a reference point. The Rams simply overrated Laurinaitis, paying him on the level of Patrick Willis, whereas the Browns’ mistake was just signing Jackson too quickly and not letting the market set the price.

The Rams were smart to lock up Laurinaitis now because the franchise tag value is inflated for linebackers because of rush linebackers, so the Rams would have probably had to guarantee Laurinaitis upwards of 9 million in 2013 if they tagged him (the tag was worth 8.8 million for linebackers this season). That wouldn’t have been a realistic option. However, giving Laurinaitis over 8 million per season over 5 years, with more than half of that being guaranteed, is not much of a better option. In fact, it may even be worse because it’s for a longer period of time.

Grade: C

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St. Louis Rams at Detroit Lions Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Lions, Rams

St. Louis Rams (0-0) at Detroit Lions (0-0)

Buy tickets for this game

For those if you who didn’t follow me in the offseason, I did a lot of work in an effort to find the 5 most underrated and 5 most overrated teams going into the season. The idea is simple. Every year, 5 teams that didn’t make the playoffs the year before make the playoffs, including one team with 5 or fewer wins the previous year and roughly 25% of teams who won 6 or fewer games the previous year. Likewise, one team goes from in the playoffs to 5 or fewer wins. One team goes from a 1st round bye to out of the playoffs and vice versa. In fact, on average, a team’s record changes by 3 wins in either direction each season. I termed this change “points of parity.” 1.8 teams change by 7+ points of parity, 4.4 teams have 6+ points of parity, 7 have 5+ points of parity, 11.3 have 4+ points of parity, 15.5 have 3+, etc. For more on this in a 7 part series, click here.

What you see below are some Vegas odds from weeks 1-3 last season.

Detroit (+1) at Tampa Bay

Indianapolis (+9) at Houston

Cincinnati (+6.5) at Cleveland

Tennessee (+3) at Jacksonville

Seattle (+5.5) at San Francisco

Chicago (+7) at New Orleans

Houston (-3) at Miami

Dallas (-3) at San Francisco

San Diego (+7) at New England

St. Louis (+4.5) at NY Giants

Philadelphia (-3) at Atlanta

San Francisco (+3) at Cincinnati

NY Giants (+9) at Philadelphia

Kansas City (+15) at San Diego

Baltimore (-4) at St. Louis

Green Bay (-4) at Chicago

Those look comical to us now, but they were once legitimate lines. If you had predicted beforehand that teams like Detroit, San Francisco, Houston, Tennessee, and Cincinnati would exceed expectations and teams like Tampa Bay, Chicago, St. Louis, San Diego, Philadelphia would do the opposite, that’s 15 wins (and one push) for you in 3 weeks easily. Unfortunately, I got screwed over, at least for the first week of the season. Two of my underrated teams (Chicago and Indianapolis) are playing each other this week, as are two of my overrated teams (Baltimore and Cincinnati).

This game I lucked out with as it has one of my underrated teams facing one of my overrated teams. If you’ve been following me this offseason, you know why I think the Rams are underrated and the Lions are overrated, but I’ll repeat myself here for anyone who hasn’t been following. For Detroit, in order to improve on their win total, the Lions would have to improve their win total for the 4th straight season. In the up and down NFL, that rarely happens. Their running back depth chart is basically the same as their inactive list. They finished last season 5-7, including playoffs. They had a distraction filled offseason and they needed an NFL record 4 comebacks of 13 points or more to even win 10 games last year, because of how bad their defense is. It’s not any better this season and if the offense doesn’t bail them out at a record rate again, they could regress.

For St. Louis, they improved 6 games in 2010, but, as could have been predictable, regressed 5 games last year. Teams that have a large improvement in win total typically regress the following season and vice versa. They should bounce back this year. Teams that regress 5 games win an average of 1.6 more the following season. The Rams were destroyed by injuries last year and should have better health in the secondary and on the offensive line, where they also added key free agents. A healthier offensive line should lead to a healthier and better Sam Bradford under center, while, on the defensive side of the ball, they have one of the league’s best defensive lines and should be able to win some games with strong defense, running the football, and decent quarterback play.

The fact that this line is so low, -7.5, solidifies my belief that the Rams are underrated and the Lions are overrated.  I believe this is what’s called a trap line. Trap lines are when odds makers want the public to bet one way or another so they make a “too good to be true” line. Typically when odds makers want you to do something, it’s a good idea not to do it. The two signs of a trap line are a suspiciously low line and a line that drops even though the majority of the public is betting it. Right now, about 80% of the money is on Detroit, yet the line has dropped from -9 when it opened (already suspiciously low) to -7.5. They really want us to bet Detroit. The odds makers seem to agree that St. Louis is underrated and Detroit is overrated and that these two teams are more evenly matched than you’d think and they’re not a bad group of guys to have agree with you. They’re not stupid. That’s why they make money every single year.

I’m not saying St. Louis is better than Detroit. I have St. Louis winning 9 games with an easier schedule and Detroit winning 7 with a harder schedule, but it could easily be the other way around if the schedules were switched. Still, there’s a lot of line value and I think at the end of the year, we’re going to look back at this line and wonder why it wasn’t Detroit -3 (which, because Detroit is at home, would suggest they’re evenly matched).

Detroit obviously has the better passing game, but that’s about it. As good as Detroit’s defensive line is, St. Louis’ defensive line is comparable with 2nd year player Robert Quinn, who excelled in a situational role last year, stepping into the starting lineup opposite Chris Long, one of the game’s best pass rushers. Inside, they have Kendall Langford, a solid starter and free agent acquisition, and 1st round rookie Michael Brockers, though the latter is out for this game with a high ankle sprain.

As bad as St. Louis’ offensive line was last year, they should be better this year. They get Rodger Saffold back from injury on the left side and add Scott Wells at center, leaving left guard and right tackle as the only two holes. It’s not great, but it’s not as bad as it seems and the new quick throw offense that the Rams are putting in, similar to the one Bradford played well in as a rookie, will make life easier for Bradford and the offensive line. Their offensive line is comparable to Detroit’s decent offensive line, which has an aging Jeff Backus at left tackle, a mediocre Gosder Cherilus at right tackle, and an interior offensive line that struggles to open up holes on the ground.

Whatever huge advantage Detroit has at quarterback and wide receiver is nullified by St. Louis obvious advantages on the ground and in the secondary. The Rams secondary was ravaged by injuries last year, but adds Cortland Finnegan, one of the league’s top cornerbacks, through free agency, as well as two promising rookies in Janoris Jenkins and Trumaine Johnson, and returns former starter Bradley Fletcher back from injury. Detroit’s secondary was torched all throughout last year and will continue to be torched this season, especially now that starter Eric Wright is gone and replaced with either 3rd round rookie Bill Bentley, or veteran Drayton Florence, cut by the Broncos earlier this week. Also likely gone for this game are safety Louis Delmas and cornerback Chris Houston with injury, leaving them without a capable starter in the secondary.

On the ground, Detroit is without Jahvid Best (injury) and Mikel Leshoure (suspension), leaving Kevin Smith, a mediocre runner who has a career 3.9 YPC, to start against an improved Rams run defense, even without Michael Brockers. Steven Jackson, meanwhile, remains the workhorse for the Rams until he gets hurt and he should have a huge game against a Detroit run defense that ranked 30th, allowing 5.0 YPC last season. That, along with the defense holding the Lions’ offense in check, will make life easier for Sam Bradford as he tries to move the ball against a very poor secondary, which he should be able to do, even without much talent at wide receiver. The running game will also force the defensive line to respect the run and will help the offensive line pass block a talented Detroit pass rush.

The Rams are my pick of the week. For one, I picked Detroit as one of my overrated teams before the season and St. Louis as one of my underrated teams before the season. Two, I love doing the opposite of what the odds makers want, which is clearly to bet Detroit in this one. Three, I feel these teams are evenly matched and therefore there’s a lot of line value, even at -7.5 in Detroit. I’m taking St. Louis to win and cover, though I’m much more confident about the latter than the former.

St. Louis Rams 24 Detroit Lions 23 Upset Pick (+290)

Pick against spread: St. Louis +7.5 (-120) 5 units

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Isaiah Pead and Daryl Richardson to split backup duties for Rams at running back

stevenlourie News, Rams

The St. Louis Rams used a 2nd round pick on Isaiah Pead in the 2012 NFL Draft, but it’s a different rookie running back who has outperformed him this preseason and Training Camp, Daryl Richardson, a 7th round pick out of Abilene Christian University. In the preseason, Richardson rushed for 126 yards on 31 carries, as opposed to 108 yards on 35 carries for Pead, who has reportedly frustrated the coaching staff with his unwillingness to run north/south. As a result, according to Fox Sports Midwest, the pair of rookies will split backup duties behind Steven Jackson.

It’s good news for Steven Jackson that Pead was unable to pose a serious threat to his workload. Definitely getting into the twilight of his career, Jackson is 29 years old and has 2138 career carries. However, he’s a very talented back and history suggests that he might have one more good season in him. I did a study on how elite running backs age. I took all of the top-25 all-time leading rushers who have played in the last decade and found that the average one has his last 1000 yard season in his age 30 season at 2602 carrier carries. Jackson currently 32nd all time in rushing yards and 1180 yards outside of the top 25 so he fits in this class of players, though I’d call him slightly below the average of the group. It wouldn’t be ridiculous and unprecedented for him to have one more big season.

However, it’s also possible he won’t and the fall could be hard for him. After the players in my study had their final 1000 yard season, they average just 169 carries per season at 3.5 yards per carry and just 5 touchdowns, so they’re really a non-factor as a back. If that happens, the Rams better hope that Pead and Richardson can be ready for significant snaps. In fantasy leagues, Jackson does have some upside outside of the first 3 rounds because of how weak this year is for running backs, but he’s got a clear downside and there’s no true handcuff for him anymore with Pead and Richardson sharing backup duties. This news is good news for his fantasy value because as long as he’s healthy, he should get the kind of workload he’s used to, but also bad because, if he gets hurt, there’s no obvious pickup to replace him with.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (standard league, draft day Sunday at 3 PM ET, 2 spots left). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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St. Louis Rams trade OT Jason Smith to the New York Jets for OT Wayne Hunter

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Jets, Offseason Moves 2012, Rams

The Jets and Rams are essentially swapping terrible right tackles in this deal. Smith is the better of the two, but the former 2nd overall pick has only played in 28 games in 3 seasons and only played in more than 7 games once, starting 15 games in 2010. In 2010, he was awful, grading out as below average as a run blocker and pass protector, allowing 5 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 32 quarterback pressures, while committing 9 penalties. Out of 76 offensive tackles, Smith graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 56th ranked offensive tackle that season.

He wasn’t much better in limited action in 2009 or 2011. After missing 10 games with concussions last season, Smith did not impress this offseason, evidently, and was benched for Barry Richardson, who was horrific in his own right last season as the starting right tackle for the cross state Chiefs as Richardson was ProFootballFocus’ 2nd worst rated offensive tackle. It’s pretty pathetic that Smith couldn’t even beat him out.

Hunter, meanwhile, has been even worse over the past 2 years. In 2010, Hunter played the equivalent of 7 whole games, including playoffs, and allowed 4 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 15 quarterback pressures, while committing 7 penalties and struggling as a run blocker. Ironically, Hunter managed to grade out one spot lower than Smith on ProFootballFocus’ offensive tackle rankings, 57th, despite only playing less than half the snaps that Smith played.

Hunter did not get better in 2011. In fact, he pretty much continued his awful play over an entire season. ProFootballFocus’ 67th ranked offensive tackle out of 73, Hunter allowed 11 sacks, 11 quarterback hits, and 32 quarterback pressures, committed 11 penalties and struggled as a run blocker. After allowing 3 sacks in a preseason game against the Giants a week ago, Hunter was benched for veteran journeyman Austin Howard, who has only played in 2 games in his career, including one start where the 2010 undrafted free agent allowed 2 sacks and 2 quarterback hits.

Jason Smith is also younger, heading into only his age 26 season, while Hunter heads into his age 31 season, and has more upside as a former #2 overall pick if he can get his game together and stay healthy. However, Smith is owed 4 million fully guaranteed this season, while Howard is owed just 2.45 million fully guaranteed this season. For what it’s worth, neither tackle will see the money they are owed in 2013, as Hunter is owed a non-guaranteed 3.95 million and Smith is owed a whopping non-guaranteed 12 million (including an 11.25 million dollar roster bonus due in March of 2013).

However, I don’t know if the “upgrade” from Hunter to Smith is really worth an extra 1.55 million. If Smith can start to make good on some of his upside and prove to be a decent right tackle, it will be, but the Jets are taking a major risk. I’d rather pay Hunter 2.45 million than pay Smith 4 million. The Rams are also taking a risk, betting that Smith won’t ever emerge as a decent starting right tackle, because this deal pretty much locks them into having an awful right tackle this season, either Hunter or Richardson. However, it’s unlikely that Smith would have been much better than either of them and the Rams are saving 1.55 million this season, so I like this deal a little bit more for them.

Update: Apparently the two sides pulled some salary cap magic and restructuring Smith’s contract right before the trade so that 1.55 million of Smith’s deal would be paid to him as a signing bonus by the Rams before he went to the Jets. Essentially, these two teams are going to be paying these two players the same amount this season. Given that, this deal makes no sense for the Rams? Why trade someone who probably has no upside for someone who definitely has no upside? Smith is younger and better than Hunter. Although, admittedly the former is like comparing eating a pound of dog shit to eating 2 pounds of dog shit. Still, the Jets win this trade.

Grade for St. Louis: C

Grade for NY Jets: A

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Rams sign Vernon Gholston

stevenlourie News, Rams

Obviously feeling the need for added defensive end depth, the Rams worked out Andre Carter and Vernon Gholston over the past 2 days, signing Gholston today. The Rams have one of the best defensive ends in the league, Chris Long, who had 13 sacks, 12 quarterback hits, and 58 quarterback pressures on 515 pass rush snaps last year, an amazing 16.1% rate.

They also have a budding star in Robert Quinn, the 14th overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, who will be a starter this year after excelling in a situational role as a rookie, with 6 sacks, 9 quarterback hits, and 21 quarterback pressures on 341 pass rush snaps, good for an also impressive 10.6% rate. Meanwhile, free agent acquisition and 3rd string defensive end Williams Hayes thrived in Jeff Fisher’s scheme in Tennessee in 2010, with 2 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 23 quarterback pressures on 326 pass rush snaps, a rate of 9.2%. Still, they felt they needed added depth at the position.

That being said, Gholston didn’t play a snap in the NFL last season, after being signed by the Bears before the season and then cut as part of final cuts. If the Bears couldn’t turn around the career of Gholston, the 6th overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft, I don’t think he’ll ever get his career turned around. In 3 years with the Jets from 2008-2010, he didn’t manage a sack and struggled to crack the starting lineup on a consistent basis. With so few days before final cuts (September 2nd) to make an impression, Gholston is more likely to be a final cut than make the 53 man roster.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Many different receivers competing for spots in Rams’ receiving corps

stevenlourie News, Rams

The Rams are known for having one of the thinnest receiving corps in the NFL. While they lack obvious #1 and #2 receivers, one thing they don’t lack is depth, as you would expect from a team that has used 5 picks in rounds 2-4 on receivers in the last 3 seasons. The Rams are hoping that their quantity over quality approach produces two legitimate starters on what has been one of the weakest receiving corps in the league really since the days of Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce.

They essentially have 8 wide receivers competing for positioning on the depth chart. Brandon Gibson and Danario Alexander are their leading returning receivers, producing mediocre lines of 36/431/1 and 26/431/2 respectively. Gibson, a 2009 6th round pick acquired in a trade from the Eagles, has caught 123 passes for 1399 yards and 4 touchdowns in 3 seasons. Alexander, meanwhile, was an undrafted free agent in 2010. He’s dealt with several injuries so far in his career, catching 46 passes for 737 yards and 3 touchdowns in 2 seasons. He’s currently battling a hamstring problem which has cost him all of Training Camp, which will definitely hurt him as he tries to make the roster in a crowded receiving corps.

Austin Pettis and Greg Salas were 3rd and 4th round picks in the 2011 NFL Draft. Neither really did much as rookies, as Salas caught 27 passes for 264 yards and 0 touchdowns, while Pettis caught 27 passes for 256 yards and 0 touchdowns. While Pettis was the higher draft pick, Salas has been the more impressive receiver this offseason. Pettis is also suspended for the first 2 games of the season for violating the league’s performance enhancing drugs policy.

Brian Quick and Chris Givens were 2nd and 4th round picks in the 2012 NFL Draft. Givens was never expected to make much of an impact as a rookie, but Quick was expected to be a starter and possibly the #1 receiver, even if only by default. However, he hasn’t quite lived up to his billing yet and has yet to beat out Brandon Gibson for a starting job. Several reports actually say that Givens is impressing more than Quick this offseason, no surprise to me since I had Givens rated higher on my wide receiver board this draft season than Quick.

Danny Amendola was their leading receiver in 2010, catching 85 passes for 689 yards and 3 touchdowns, but missed most of last season with injury. He’s had a strong offseason in his return and has been Bradford’s favorite target once again in the preseason. Bradford’s favorite security blanket, Amendola is the only receiver whose role is pretty much locked in at this point, as he will continue to serve as the slot receiver, as he did in 2010.

Another player coming off injury is Steve Smith. Steve Smith caught 107 passes for 1220 yards and 7 touchdowns with the Giants in 2009, but knee problems have limited him to 59 catches for 655 yards and 4 touchdowns over the last 2 seasons with the Giants and Eagles. Now as healthy as he’s been since 2009, Smith is impressing in Training Camp and the preseason and looks to be locked in as a starter. He won’t find his old 100 catch form or anything, but he’ll probably be the Rams’ #1 receiver, assuming he can stay healthy.

Either Gibson or Quick will likely start opposite him, depending almost solely on whether or not Quick can step up his game and beat out the veteran in the next few weeks. Amendola will remain the slot receiver, while Salas and Givens probably won’t have much impact this season as purely depth receivers. Alexander, unable to shake the injury bug, will probably be a final cut, while Pettis will miss the first 2 games of the season with suspension.

That will allow the Rams to carry just 6 receivers into the season despite making just 1 cut, but when he returns, they’ll have a decision to make, unless injuries strike. Pettis could find himself the odd man out, as could Salas, even though they were mid round picks just over a year ago. Givens, being a rookie, will probably be safe for this season, especially after an impressive offseason. 2nd year tight end Lance Kendricks, a 2011 2nd round pick, has also been having a strong offseason and could be a big part of the offense as well. This receiving corps might end up being passable.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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