Rams

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (3-6) at New Orleans Saints (3-6)

Both of these teams are 3-6 and have serious injury problems, among the worst in the league. The Rams will get quarterback Matt Stafford back from a one-game absence with a concussion, but he’ll return to a team that lost arguably the best wide receiver in the league in Cooper Kupp to injury and that is without a trio of starting offensive linemen, left tackle Joe Noteboom, left guard David Edwards, and center Brian Allen from what was already a shaky offensive line entering the season. The Rams’ defense still remains an above average unit, but the absence of their best offensive player and three key offensive linemen has left their offense well below average.

The Saints, meanwhile, have injury problems on both sides of the ball. On offense, they will be without top wide receiver Michael Thomas, starting left tackle James Hurst, and starting center Erik McCoy, while their defense will be without top cornerback Marshon Lattimore, talented starting linebacker Pete Werner, and their stud edge defender duo of Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport. The Saints have a one-point edge in schedule adjusted efficiency and a one-point edge in my roster rankings, but they’re also field goal favorites at home, which is about what they should be. My numbers suggest the Saints are slightly more likely to cover at this number, but this is a no confidence pick and a push is a likely outcome, given that one in six games are decided by exactly three points.

New Orleans Saints 20 Los Angeles Rams 17

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -3

Confidence: None

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (3-6) at Los Angeles Rams (3-5)

This game is complicated because both teams have quarterbacks questionable due to injury. In the Rams case, Matt Stafford seems highly unlikely to be able to clear the concussion protocol in time to start this week, while Cardinals’ quarterback Kyler Murray could play, but would likely be severely limited mobility wise due to his hamstring injury, in which case the Cardinals may be better off resting Murray and playing serviceable backup Colt McCoy. The Rams also have a serviceable backup in John Wolford, who is likely to be a significant downgrade from Stafford, who is struggling by his standards this season.

Murray is also struggling by his standards this season and, overall, both of these teams have mediocre offenses to begin with, as the Rams rank 20th and the Cardinals rank 21st in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency. The difference between these two teams is on defense, where the Rams rank 10th in schedule adjusted efficiency and the Cardinals rank 26th. The Cardinals are 3-6, but they have actually been one of the worst teams in the league overall this season, benefitting from a +3 turnover margin, which is not predictive, and still struggling to win games, in large part due to their 29th ranked overall schedule adjusted efficiency, which is much more predictive. Overall, they are 5 points below average in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 3.5 points worse than the Rams.

Both teams have mediocre offenses with injured quarterbacks, but the Rams are still the clearly better team overall due to their defense. Despite that, the Rams are only favored by 1.5 points at home in this game, suggesting these two teams are about even. My calculated line has them favored by 5, so there is enough here for the Rams to be worth betting, even with the uncertainty around both teams’ quarterback situations. There aren’t many games that are worth betting this week, so the Rams are actually going to be my Pick of the Week, largely by default, without another good option.

Los Angeles Rams 20 Arizona Cardinals 13

Pick against the spread: LA Rams -1.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2022 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (3-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5)

This is a matchup of the previous two Super Bowl winners and a rematch of a divisional round game from a year ago when the eventual champion Rams barely got the best of the Buccaneers, in a matchup between a 12-win Rams team and a 13-win Buccaneers team. However, going into this matchup, both teams have disappointed significantly this season, with both teams sitting below .500, the Rams at 3-4 and the Buccaneers at 3-5.

The Buccaneers got off to a 2-0 start, but their offense has been middling at best all season, ranking 21st in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency, while their dominant defense that lead them to their first two victories has not been nearly as good since, in large part due to key injury absences, which will continue this week, with stud safety Antoine Winfield and top edge defender Shaq Barrett out for this game, among others. The Buccaneers offense is probably better than they’ve played so far, but they’re not the same in the receiving corps and on the offensive line as they’ve been in recent years and quarterback Tom Brady is starting to show his age, even if only a little bit, with a less impressive supporting cast.

The Rams, on the other hand, have been middling on both sides of the ball for most of the season, falling from 9th in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency in 2021 to 16th this season and falling from 9th to 12th on defense. Their offensive problems largely stem from the off-season losses of wide receiver Odell Beckham and offensive linemen Andrew Whitworth and Austin Corbett, but they’ve also had further injuries on the offensive line that have made things worse. On defense, their dropoff has not been as pronounced, as they do seem to be feeling the effects of losing top edge defender Von Miller this off-season.

Overall, I have both teams about even in my roster rankings, which makes this a tough call. I have the Buccaneers as slightly better and this line favoring them by a field goal is what you would expect when a home team is slightly better than the road team, but my numbers have the Rams slightly more likely to cover at this number than the Buccaneers, so I am taking them for pick ‘em purposes. There’s obviously not nearly enough here to bet on either side though and a push might be the most likely outcome, given that the most likely outcome when two evenly matched teams play is the home team winning by a field goal.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 Los Angeles Rams 20

Pick against the spread: LA Rams +3

Confidence: None

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams: 2022 Week 8 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (3-4) at Los Angeles Rams (3-3)

The 49ers added Christian McCaffrey to an already talented roster last week and figure to feature him in something resembling a full role this week, giving the 49ers among the most top level talent in the league, but they also have had consistent injury problems all season, which, along with underwhelming quarterback play, is why they sit at 3-4. Players like edge defender Nick Bosa, tight end George Kittle, left tackle Trent Williams, and safety Jimmie Ward have all missed time with injury and have since returned this season, but this week they’ll be without top wide receiver Deebo Samuel, talented linebacker Dre Greenlaw, stud defensive linemen Arik Armstead, and starting cornerback Emmanuel Mosley.

The Rams have also disappointed in part due to injury, but they do get some reinforcements out of the bye week, with wide receiver Van Jefferson and center Brian Allen returning to action. I still have the 49ers a point and a half better than the Rams overall, which ordinarily would give us some line value with the Rams as 1-point home underdogs, but the Rams probably won’t have much homefield advantage in this game against the 49ers, whose fans outnumber the Rams significantly and who will travel for this game. With that in mind, this line is about right, but I’m still taking the Rams, if only for a no confidence pick, because they’ve had a little bit more time to prepare.

Los Angeles Rams 24 San Francisco 49ers 23

Pick against the spread: LA Rams +1

Confidence: None

Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Rams: 2022 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (1-4) at Los Angeles Rams (2-3)

The Panthers came into this season with some hope of being better on offense, adding quarterback Baker Mayfield and overhauling the offensive line in front of him, after finishing the 2021 season ranked 29th in offensive efficiency. Their defense ranked 4th in efficiency last season, and, while they didn’t look quite as talented on defense going into this season, they still seemed to have an above average unit on that side of the ball, so if they had a somewhat decent offense, the Panthers could have been a competitive team this season. 

Carolina’s defense has mostly held up its end of the bargain, ranking 10th in schedule adjusted efficiency, but their offense has been arguably worse than a year ago, ranking dead last in schedule adjusted efficiency. Things went from bad to worse for the Panthers last week when they were blown out at home by the 49ers in a game in which Baker Mayfield got hurt and after which head coach Matt Rhule was fired, meaning the Panthers will have a completely different head coach/quarterback combination this week than they did a week ago. It’s unclear if that will help though and it actually could make things worse. 

Rhule was definitely overmatched as head coach, but interim head coach Steve Wilks does not have a good track record leading a team and their offense problems will remain, with Wilks being a defensive coach and Ben McAdoo still in charge on offense. Meanwhile, as badly as Mayfield has played, backup PJ Walker has proven to be completely overmatched whenever he’s been forced into action in the past and at ont point this off-season he was the Panthers’ 4th quarterback, before injuries to Mayfield, Sam Darnold, and Matt Corral. 

The Panthers are also in a tough spot in Los Angeles against a Rams team that has a bye on deck, with big home favorites covering the spread at a high rate before their bye week, doing so at a 62.9% rate all-time as home favorites of 6 points or more. That trend would seem to apply, with the Rams being favored by 10 points, but, even with all of the problems the Panthers have, I think the Rams are overvalued at that number, as they have their own offensive problems, having lost several starters from last year’s Super Bowl team, due to injuries and free agency. 

The Panthers still have a strong defense, especially with safety Xavier Woods back from a one-game absence, so it’s really hard to trust the Rams as double digit favorites in what figures to be a low scoring game, even with the head coach and quarterback issues the Panthers have and even with the Rams in a good spot. I can’t have any confidence in the Panthers either, but they seem like the better side for pick ‘em purposes, with my calculated line only favoring the offense challenged Rams by 6.

Los Angeles Rams 19 Carolina Panthers 10

Pick against the spread: Carolina +10

Confidence: None

Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams: 2022 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (3-1) at Los Angeles Rams (2-2)

All seemed lost for the Cowboys when they lost quarterback Dak Prescott for an extended period of time in a week 1 blowout home loss to the Buccaneers, but they’ve since won three straight games and are squarely in the playoff mix in the NFC, with Prescott now seemingly just a week or two away from returning. Backup quarterback Mike White hasn’t been great, leading an offense that ranks 25th in schedule adjusted efficiency, but he hasn’t made big mistakes and the Cowboys’ defense has carried them, ranking 5th in schedule adjusted efficiency. 

The Cowboys are getting healthier, even with Prescott still out, with wide receiver Michael Gallup, tight end Dalton Schultz, left guard Connor McGovern, and safety Jayron Kearse all returning from injury last week, not coincidentally their best performance of the year in a double digit win over the Commanders. Despite that, the Cowboys are still 5.5 point road underdogs in Los Angeles against the Rams this week. 

This is the toughest opponent Cooper Rush and the Cowboys have faced on the road, but the Rams are not the same team as a year ago and may still be a little overrated as defending Super Bowl Champions.The Rams’ big off-season departures were left tackle Andrew Whitworth and edge defender Von Miller, but they also lost right guard Austin Corbett and are now without starting center Brian Allen and his backup Cameron Shelton due to injury, meaning they are down three offensive linemen from a year ago. 

The Rams added Bobby Wagner on defense, which somewhat offsets the loss of Von Miller, but their attempt to replace wide receiver Odell Beckham with free agent acquisition Allen Robinson has not gone well, with Robinson continuing to struggle after a down final year in Chicago in 2021, which, coupled with their offensive line problems, have caused significant issues on the Rams’ offense. I have the Rams calculated as just 3-point home favorites over the Cowboys, so we’re getting some decent line value with the Cowboys at +5.5. It’s not enough for them to be worth betting, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Los Angeles Rams 20 Dallas Cowboys 17

Pick against the spread: Dallas +5.5

Confidence: Low

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers: 2022 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (2-1) at San Francisco 49ers (1-2)

The 49ers have been hit hard by injuries as much as any team in the league. In total, they are without top interior defender Arik Armstead, rotational interior defender Javon Kinlaw, talented safety Jimmie Ward, rotational linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair, starting center Daniel Brunskill, starting running back Elijah Mitchell, stud left tackle Trent Williams, and starting quarterback Trey Lance, although that last one is largely offset by the 49ers having veteran Jimmy Garoppolo as a replacement. 

The Rams have some injury concerns, missing starting center Brian Allen and several cornerbacks behind Jalen Ramsey, but they still have a four point edge in my roster rankings over the injury plagued 49ers. Despite that, they are actually underdogs on the road in San Francisco, albeit of just 1.5 points. That’s probably because of the history of Sean McVay’s and Kyle Shanahan’s matchups, with Shanahan winning 7 of 11, but I’m not sure how much that matters. That disparity is because the 49ers beat the Rams six straight times, but the Rams ended that streak in the NFC Championship game last year and that wasn’t that surprising.

Teams that have won six straight matchups against their opponent do win that seventh game at a 60.1% clip, but that is usually because the team is better in general and not because they happen to “have their number.” When we look at underdogs, like the 49ers were in the NFC Championship, that winning percentage drops to 34.5% and they only even cover the spread at a 50.2% clip. If we largely discount the history of this matchup, which we should, the Rams should be favored by a couple points in this matchup. There’s not quite enough here for the Rams to be worth betting against the spread, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes and there’s some value in placing a small bet on the money line at +105.

Los Angeles Rams 17 San Francisco 49ers 16 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: LA Rams +1.5

Confidence: Low

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals: 2022 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (1-1) at Arizona Cardinals (1-1)

Going into the season, I considered the Cardinals among the most overrated teams in the league and a likely candidate to regress. They went 11-6 last season, but needed a +12 turnover margin to get to that record, which is not predictive, and they ranked just 14th in overall efficiency, barely above average. They also got a lot worse this off-season, losing starting wide receiver Christian Kirk, top edge defender Chandler Jones, top off ball linebacker Jordan Hicks, top cornerback Robert Alford, and their most efficient running back Chase Edmonds, with their only major addition being former Ravens wide receiver Marquise Brown, who cost the Cardinals their first round pick in a trade and who isn’t a significant upgrade on Christian Kirk. They’ll also be without top wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins for the first six games of the season due to a suspension.

Given that, I’m surprised to be picking them against the spread in week 3, but they are a good value as 3.5-point home underdogs against the Rams. The Cardinals’ week 1 blowout loss to the Chiefs seems to have completely soured the public on them, but they were missing arguably their best defensive player JJ Watt and key offensive lineman Justin Pugh in that game, which also came against arguably the best team in the league. The Rams, meanwhile, were similarly embarrassed by another top team, the Buffalo Bills, in week 1 and, despite that, they are still favored by more than a field goal on the road in this one, even with the Cardinals pulling the upset win in Las Vegas last week with Watt and Pugh healthy.

My calculated line has the Cardinals as underdogs of just 1.5 points. The Rams may be a little overrated because they are defending Super Bowl champions, as they aren’t the same team as a year ago, with a pair of key starting offensive linemen, left tackle Andrew Whitworth and right guard Austin Corbett no longer with the team, as well as top edge defender Von Miller. The Rams did add Bobby Wagner in free agency this off-season, but he doesn’t offset all of their losses. 

The Rams have significant injury concerns right now too, with starting wide receiver Van Jefferson still not making his season debut this week, starting center Brian Allen missing his second straight game, and several cornerback options unavailable. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are relatively healthy and played a much better game last week with key players back in the lineup. The Cardinals might not be able to pull the upset here, but about 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or less and this should be a close game, so the Cardinals are worth betting at +3.5.

Los Angeles Rams 27 Arizona Cardinals 26

Pick against the spread: Arizona +3.5

Confidence: Medium

Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams: 2022 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (0-1) at Los Angeles Rams (0-1)

The Rams were blown out on national television in the first game of their Super Bowl defense last week, but I think that had much more to do with their opponents, the Buffalo Bills, being a dominant team than it had to do with the Rams being significantly worse than most expected them to be coming into the season. The Bills finished the 2020 season with the #1 ranked offense in efficiency, finished last season #1 in defensive efficiency, with a 5th ranked offense, and always had the potential to be a truly dominant team this season, even if I wasn’t expecting them to necessarily be that good, particularly because they were in a very tough spot on the road against a defending Super Bowl Champion at home in week one. 

The public who watched that game seemed to have another takeaway, as they prefer the underdog Falcons in this matchup, even as the odds makers have dropped this line from 13.5 on the early line last week to 10 this week. I normally like to fade significant week-to-week line movement like that as it tends to be an overreaction to a single week of play and this situation is no different. The public may also like that the Falcons kept it close with the Saints last week, which could erroneously lead the public to believe the Falcons are not one of the worst few teams in the league, but the Falcons were at home last week, the Rams are a much tougher opponent, and that game being so close could work against the Falcons this week, as they could be flat after blowing a big quarter 4th lead and barely losing to a big divisional rival. 

The Rams, on the other hand, should be fully focused after being embarrassed last week and are 16-10 ATS off of a loss in the Sean McVay era. They’ll be without center Brian Allen and could be without edge defender Leonard Floyd, but I still have them calculated at 13-point favorites, as the Falcons just don’t have the talent to take advantage of the Rams’ injuries or any of their weaknesses, unlike the Bills, who are arguably the best team in the league and certainly played like it a week ago. The Falcons, conservely, are likely to play like arguably the worst team in the league this week. This isn’t a huge play, but the Rams are definitely worth a bet this week.

Los Angeles Rams 27 Atlanta Falcons 13

Pick against the spread: LA Rams -10

Confidence: Medium

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams: 2022 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (0-0) at Los Angeles Rams (0-0)

The Rams are defending Super Bowl champions, but instead it’s the Bills getting the majority of the hype coming into this game, entering the season as odds on favorites to win the Super Bowl and entering this week one game in Los Angeles against the defending champions as 2.5-point road favorites. In some ways, the hype the Bills are getting is understandable. They finished the regular season last year ranked #1 in overall efficiency and point differential and, while it was the Rams who eventually got it done in the post-season, last year’s playoff games were as close as any in recent memory, with the Rams winning each of their final three post-season games by just a field goal, while the Bills lost in overtime to the Chiefs, who lost in overtime to the Bengals, who came up a field goal short against the Rams in the Super Bowl. 

The Rams were the team who came out victorious last year, but had a few things gone differently, numerous different teams, including the Bills, could have come out victorious. The Bills also got better this off-season, most notably adding top edge defender Von Miller from the Rams, while the Rams lost stud left tackle Andrew Whitworth to retirement, in addition to the departure of Miller. However, I still think we are getting some line value with the Rams as home underdogs, as my calculated line is even. 

Von Miller changing sides seems to be getting a lot of attention in this matchup, likely leading to the Bills being a publicly backed favorite, but the Rams are unlikely to be significantly worse on defense without him, having added the talented Bobby Wagner to fill a big need at inside linebacker, while the Bills didn’t bring back a pair of key edge rushers from a year ago, Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison, and are going to be without top cornerback Tre’Davious White for the start of the season as he recovers from a torn ACL suffered late last season. White is one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL when healthy and the Bills were noticeably worse defensively without him down the stretch last season, so that’s a huge absence for them.

In normal circumstances, there wouldn’t be quite enough line value with the Rams at +2.5 for them to be worth betting, but there are a couple circumstances working in their favor in this matchup. For one, defending Super Bowl champs tend to fare pretty well in their home opener, playing in front of their home crowd for the first time since winning the Super Bowl, going 12-4-1 ATS in that spot since 2005, including 9-2-1 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown. 

I would expect the Rams to play similarly well today, perhaps even more so, likely feeling disrespected as underdogs, just the second time a defending Super Bowl champion has been home underdogs in week 1 over the past 20 years (the Broncos beat the Panthers straight up as underdogs in 2016). The Rams will also benefit from being a Pacific time zone team playing an Atlantic time zone team at night, a spot in which teams cover at over a 60% rate, as teams accustomed to the Atlantic time zone tend to get tired and see their performance drop off in the second half of night games as a result. This isn’t a big play, but I like the Rams money line and against the spread in this one.

Los Angeles Rams 24 Buffalo Bills 23 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: LA Rams +2.5

Confidence: Medium