Ravens

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens: 2025 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (3-8) at Baltimore Ravens (6-5)

The Bengals are getting Joe Burrow back from an extended absence in this game and there is a good chance he is the healthier of these two quarterbacks, as Lamar Jackson has played at far less than his usual level since returning from a hamstring injury four weeks ago. In addition to his hamstring injury, Jackson is apparently also dealing with knee and ankle injuries. His lack of health is most apparent in his rushing production, as he has averaged just 17.7 rushing yards per game over the past four weeks, down significantly from the 58.5 yards per start he averaged in his career prior to the last four weeks.

The Bengals have a lot of issues and, even with Burrow returning and Jackson playing at less than 100%, we aren’t getting a ton of line value with the Bengals, who I have calculated as 6.5-point underdogs, but Burrow has historically done great as significant underdogs, going 14-3 ATS as 3.5+ underdogs in his career, making him close to an auto-bet in this situation. That trend is even more significant than that suggests because, of those three ATS losses, two came in his rookie year and one came in a game in which he got hurt in the second quarter. Barring a reaggravation of his foot injury, he should be able to keep this game close and it’s very possible that his counterpart on the other side is more likely to leave this game early due to injury.

Baltimore Ravens 30 Cincinnati Bengals 27

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +7

Confidence: High

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins: 2025 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (2-5) at Miami Dolphins (2-6)

Both of these teams only have two wins, but they have very different rest of the season outlooks. While the Dolphins have been one of the worst teams in the league in terms of yards per play differential (29th at -0.70) and first down rate differential (28th at -3.24%), the Ravens have been much better in those metrics than their record, ranking 14th in yards per play differential (+0.04) and 18th in first down rate differential (-0.64%), despite a much tougher schedule than the Dolphins. Those metrics are much more predictive of a team’s future success than a team’s win/loss record, so that bodes well for the Ravens going forward.

The Ravens are also much healthier now than they have been for most of the season, with quarterback Lamar Jackson, left tackle Ronnie Stanley, defensive tackle Travis Jones, edge defender Kyle Van Noy, linebacker Roquan Smith, cornerback Marlon Humphrey, and safety Kyle Hamilton all back from injuries that cost them time earlier in this season. With their team close to full strength and their schedule set to get much easier, the Ravens, one of the top teams in the AFC coming into the season, should be able to rip off a bunch of wins over the coming weeks to get themselves right back into the playoff picture.

Unfortunately, we’re not really getting any line value with the Ravens, as this line, favoring the Ravens by 7.5 points on the road, reflects the Ravens’ promising rest of season outlook. My calculated line is actually only Baltimore -7, so we’re actually getting a little bit of line value with the Dolphins. The Dolphins are in a bad spot, as teams that win as underdogs of 6.5+ cover at just a 38.6% rate the following week as underdogs of 6.5+ the following week, but the Ravens aren’t in a good spot either, as they are playing two games in five days after previously having a bye. Teams in that spot cover at just a 30.3% rate, unless their opponent is also in the same situation, including just 2-10 ATS on the road in a non-divisional matchup. If I had to pick a side, I would take the Dolphins, but if this line was -7, I would take the Ravens. That’s how close this one is for me.

Baltimore Ravens 31 Miami Dolphins 24

Pick against the spread: Miami +7.5

Confidence: None

Baltimore Ravens 2025 NFL Season Preview

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Quarterback

The Ravens had the most efficient offense in the league last season, leading the league in both yards per play (6.85) and first down rate (36.22%). They were led by quarterback Lamar Jackson, who had one of the best seasons ever by a quarterback. Jackson completed 66.7% of his passes for an average of 8.80 YPA, 41 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, good for a 119.6 QB rating, the 4th best single season QB rating of all time. That alone would have been highly impressive, but the dual threat Jackson also added 915 yards and 4 touchdowns on 139 carries (6.58 YPC), good for the 7th most rushing yards ever by a quarterback in a season. The Ravens lost in the second round of the post-season, but they still had 7.30 yards per play and a 40.35% first down rate in that game, losing because they lost the turnover margin by 3, a metric which tends to be very volatile on a week-to-week basis. 

As is usually the case when you have the best offense in the league and an all-time great season by a quarterback, there isn’t anywhere to go but down, but Jackson has had some other very elite seasons in his career, winning the MVP in 2019 and 2023 with QB ratings of 113.3 and 102.7 and rushing totals of 1,206 and 821 respectively. In his other three seasons as a starter (2020, 2021, and 2022), Jackson wasn’t as good, combining for a 92.5 QB rating and averaging 845 rushing yards per season, while missing 12 games and seeing all three seasons end with injuries, but, overall, Jackson has established himself as one of the best quarterbacks in the league.

Jackson hasn’t missed a game with injury since 2022, but he still does have a concerning injury history and takes more hits than the average quarterback because of his playing style, so the Ravens prioritized upgrading the backup quarterback spot this off-season, signing ex-Cowboy Cooper Rush. Rush is a career backup who has only made 14 starts in 8 seasons in the league, but his 83.8 QB rating isn’t bad for a backup. He would obviously be a huge downgrade from Jackson if he had to step in and play, but the same can be said of any quarterback backing up an elite quarterback like Jackson, so that isn’t necessarily a knock on Rush as a backup.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

Jackson also had a great supporting cast around him last season, arguably the best he’s ever had and, while there are some reasons to be concerned that his supporting cast won’t be quite as good again in 2025, the Ravens do return 10 of 11 starters from a year ago. The one who didn’t is left guard Patrick Mekari and, while he was barely decent with a 60.4 PFF grade across 998 snaps, his likely replacement Andrew Vorhees looks like a clear downgrade, as the 2023 7th round pick made the first three starts of his career last season and had just a 57.2 PFF grade.

Other left guard options include 3rd round rookie Emery Jones, a collegiate tackle, who could move inside, Ben Cleveland, a disappointing 2021 3rd round pick who has played just 670 nondescript snaps in four seasons in the league (seven starts), and Joe Noteboom, who has finished above 60 on PFF in four of seven seasons in the league, but who is a career backup with 35 starts in seven seasons in the league, just 11 of which came at guard, and who is now going into his age 30 season. Whoever ends up with the starting job would likely be a liability. 

The rest of this offensive line should stay the same in 2025, but there is some concern about left tackle Ronnie Stanley. A 2016 first round pick, Stanley was an elite player early in his career and he received a 71.4 PFF grade in 17 starts last season, but that was his best single season PFF grade since 2020 and from 2020-2023 injuries cost him 36 games. It’s possible Stanley has put his injuries behind him and will continue being an above average starter, but that’s far from a guarantee, especially since Stanley is now entering his age 31 season.

Center Tyler Linderbaum was the Ravens’ best offensive lineman last season, with a 78.1 PFF grade, which is in line with how the 2022 1st round pick has played throughout his career, finishing with PFF grades of 74.7 and 78.3 in his first two seasons in the league, while making 49 of a possible 51 starts in three seasons in the league. Still only going into his age 25 season, Linderbaum’s best years could still be ahead of him and, even if they aren’t, he should still remain a well above average center in 2025 and beyond.

On the right side, the Ravens have a pair of players who were first-time starters last season. Right tackle Roger Rosenstein was a 2nd round rookie and had a decent 66.9 PFF grade. He should remain a capable starter with the upside for more, now going into his second season in the league. Right guard Daniel Faalele, meanwhile, is a 2022 4th round pick who had a 60.5 PFF grade last season, after playing just 355 mediocre snaps in his first two seasons prior. Faalele should remain an underwhelming starting option again in 2025. Overall, this offensive line has some talent, but also some concerns, especially with Patrick Mekari gone and Ronnie Stanley getting up there in age with a history of injury and inconsistency.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

Nelson Agholor, the Ravens #3 receiver last season, was not technically a starter on this offense, given how much the Ravens use two tight end sets, and he only played 420 snaps, but he wasn’t retained this off-season either. He was mediocre last season though, with a 14/231/2 slash line and 1.11 yards per route run, and the Ravens likely upgraded on him by signing DeAndre Hopkins instead. Hopkins was once a perennial 1000+ yard receiver, surpassing that number in seven of ten seasons from 2014-2023, with an average slash line of 88/1155/8 and 2.13 yards per route run over that stretch, but he fell to a 56/610/5 slash line in 2024 and now is going into his age 33 season.

Part of his struggles last season have to do with him being traded mid-season and struggling to pick up the playbook in his new home in Kansas City and, even still, he did have a decent 1.71 yards per route run average on the season, mostly limited by a lack of playing time. Having a full off-season with his new team in Baltimore should help him but, given his age, it’s highly unlikely he will bounce back to his prime form and it’s possible he could decline further.

Fortunately, the Ravens won’t need a big role out of Hopkins unless one of their other pass catchers gets hurt. Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman were their top-2 wide receivers in 2024, finishing with a 74/1059/4 slash line on 116 targets with 2.25 yards per route run and a 45/756/9 slash line on 72 targets with 1.69 yards per route run respectively. Flowers, a 2023 first round pick, also had a 77/858/5 slash line on 108 targets with 1.64 yards per route run as a rookie and looks likely to remain an above average wide receiver for years to come.

Bateman is also a former first round pick, selected in 2021, and, while he hasn’t quite lived up to his draft slot, he was a useful #2 receiver in 2024. Last season was a career best season for him though and he’s only averaged 1.46 yards per route run in his career, while missing 15 games across his first three seasons in the league prior to last season, so he could regress and/or miss more time with injury in 2025, but it’s also possible he’s permanently turned a corner as a player and, even if he does miss more time with injury, the Ravens have a better insurance policy now with Hopkins being added. 

The Ravens top-2 tight ends also played significant roles last season, as Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely finished with snap counts of 683 and 626 respectively. In the passing game, they had a 55/673/11 slash line on 69 targets and 1.88 yards per route run and a 42/477/6 slash line on 58 targets and 1.55 yards per route run respectively. Andrews is an accomplished veteran with an average 62/790/7 slash line on 90 targets with 2.12 yards per route run in seven seasons in the league, but he’s heading into his age 30 season and could start to decline soon. 

Meanwhile Likely, a 2022 4th round pick, is starting to come into his own, posting career highs in catches, yards, targets, touchdowns, and yards per route run last season, after a 36/373/3 slash line on 60 targets with 1.39 yards per route run as a rookie and a 30/411/5 slash line on 40 targets with 1.45 yards per route run in his second season in the league in 2023. With Likely still only going into his age 25 season, we could see this tight end split shift even more in his direction in 2025, though both figure to remain heavily involved in the offense, after the Ravens ranked 5th in the league with 30.2% of their targets going to tight ends last season.

Outside of their top-3 wide receivers and top-2 tight ends, the Ravens lack experienced depth. However, Charlie Kolar, the #3 tight end, has flashed potential in very limited action (517 snaps) through three seasons in the league since being selected in the 4th round in 2022, averaging 2.05 yards per route run, while impressing as a blocker. On top of that, while #4 wide receiver Tylan Wallace has only averaged 1.10 yards per route run in four seasons since being selected in the 4th round in 2021, he did have a 1.77 yards per route run average last season. This is a talented receiving corps overall.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

A big part of why the Ravens’ offense was so successful last season is that Lamar Jackson had by far the best running back he had ever played with, as Derrick Henry excelled in the Ravens’ offense in his first season in Baltimore, turning back the clock to rush for 325 yards and 1,921 touchdowns on 16 carries (5.91 YPC). Henry is a future Hall of Famer who rushed for 3,567 yards and 33 touchdowns on 681 carries (5.24 YPC) in a 2-year span from 2019-2020, but he fell to just a 4.29 YPC over the next three seasons, totaling 3,642 yards and 35 touchdowns on 848 carries, in part due to a declining offense around him in Tennessee, but also seemingly in part due to his age. 

Henry obviously silenced the age concerns last season, but he’s now going into his age 31 season and it’s still fair to note that running backs do tend to drop off in their late 20s and early 30s. In fact, on average, a 28-year-old running back is about 4 times as likely to surpass 1000 yards in a season as a 31-year-old running back like Henry, a huge drop off over just three seasons. Even beyond Henry’s age, the history of running backs after elite seasons like he had last season does not work in his favor. In NFL history, 32 running backs have rushed for at least 1,700 yards in a season prior to 2024. Of those 32 running backs, 29 finished with fewer rushing yards the following season and, on average, running backs who rush for 1,700 yards in a season see their rushing total decline by 35.49% and their yards per carry decline by 14.17%. Henry might not drop off completely in 2025, but odds are against him repeating last season’s dominant performance, which would definitely hurt this offense.

Henry ranked second in the league in carries last season with 325, but the Ravens may try to limit his carries somewhat this season, in an attempt to keep him fresh, especially down the stretch. Obviously Lamar Jackson takes off and runs with the ball frequently, but the rest of the Ravens’ running backs left something to be desired last season. Justice Hill ranked second on the team among running backs with 47 carries last season and, while he took them for 4.85 yards per carry, that was largely the result of primarily playing in long yardage passing situations against defenses expecting a passing play, as Hill had a mediocre 44.7% carry success rate. His numbers last season were largely in line with his career numbers of 4.65 YPC and a 46.4% carry success rate on 250 carries in six seasons in the league, since being selected in the 4th round in 2019.

Hill probably isn’t a candidate for a significantly expanded role as a runner in 2025, but the Ravens should get a healthier season out of Keaton Mitchell, who flashed a lot of promise as a rookie in 2023, with a 8.43 YPC average across 47 carries, before barely playing in 2024 due to injury, limited to 2.00 YPC on 15 carries in five games. Mitchell is a 2023 undrafted free agent who is only 5-8 190, but, if he is back to full health, he could be a useful change of pace back behind Henry.

Hill will likely remain the primary passing down back, after averaging 1.64 yards per route run and posting a 42/383/3 slash line on 51 targets last season, though it’s worth noting that he averaged just 0.72 yards per route run in his first five seasons in the league, so last season’s performance might be a fluke. Derrick Henry has only caught 174 passes in 136 career games though, so he won’t play a big passing down role and, while Mitchell has averaged 2.02 yards per route run in his career, the Ravens probably want to avoid giving him too many touches, leaving Hill to remain the primary passing down back. Derrick Henry probably won’t have as good of a season as he did last season, but he should still remain a talented lead back and the Ravens have a promising passing down back in Justice Hill and a promising change of pace change in Keaton Mitchell as well.

Grade: A

Edge Defenders

The Ravens’ defense wasn’t as good as their offense in 2024, finishing the regular season ranked 6th in yards per play allowed and 10th in first down rate allowed, but they got significantly better down the stretch, ranking #1 in both of those metrics from week 11-18. The primary reason for that was changes they made in their secondary, which I will get into later. Going into 2025, this defense looks very similar to a year ago, particularly on the defensive line and in the linebacking corps.

At the edge defender position, the Ravens return their top-4 in terms of snaps played from a year ago. Kyle Van Noy led the way with a 75.4 PFF grade, particularly playing well as a pass rusher, with 12.5 sacks, 9 hits, and a 12.6% pressure rate. For Van Noy, it was his third season in the past four years above 70 on PFF and his fourth in the past six years, but he’s going into his age 34 season in 2025, so he could easily decline.

With Van Noy getting older, it’s likely that Odafe Oweh will be the Ravens’ top edge defender in 2025. A first round pick in 2021, Oweh got off to a start slow start to his career, with PFF grades of 67.9 and 56.8 across snap counts of 615 and 633 in his first two seasons in the league, but he has come into his own over the past two seasons, with PFF grades of 80.7 and 71.2 on snap counts of 436 and 636, particularly playing well as a pass rusher, with 15 sacks, 22 hits, and a 12.9% pressure rate in 30 games in 2023 and 2024 combined. Still in the prime of his career in his age 27 season, Oweh figures to continue playing at an above average level in 2025.

To potentially offset any decline from Van Noy, the Ravens used a second round pick on Mike Green, who projects as a future starter opposite Oweh. The Ravens also have Tavius Robinson, Adisa Isaac, and David Ojabi. Robinson is a 2023 4th round pick who struggled with a 55.3 PFF grade across 335 snaps as a rookie, before taking a small step forward in year two with a 62.3 PFF grade across 485 snaps. Isaac is a 2024 3rd round pick who only played 32 snaps as a rookie, but who could take a step forward in year two. Ojabo is a 2022 2nd round pick who has largely been a bust to this point in his career, with just 379 snaps played in three seasons in the league, but who still has theoretical upside in his age 25 season in 2025. Kyle Van Noy getting older will hurt this position group, but the Ravens also have a bunch of young options who could take a step forward in 2025.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

At the interior defender position, the Ravens bring back their top-3 in terms of snaps played from a year ago. Nnamdi Madbuike led this position group with 812 snaps last season and figures to do so again in 2025. He’s averaged 741 snaps played per season over the past three seasons and has been one of the best interior pass rushers in the league over that time, with 25 sacks, 33 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate in 51 games. He’s not nearly as good as a run defender, but his pass rush ability makes him a very valuable player and he’s still in his prime, in his age 28 season.

Travis Jones is the Ravens most well rounded interior defender, as the 2022 3rd round pick has finished above 70 on PFF in each of the past two seasons on snap counts of 452 and 599, while finishing above 60 both as a pass rusher and run defender in both seasons. As a pass rusher, he has 2.5 sacks, 7 hits, and a 7.7% pressure rate in 34 games over the past two seasons and he’s been even better against the run. Still only in his age 26 season, he should continue playing at a similar level across a similar snap count in 2025.

Broderick Washington also played a significant role at the interior defender position last season, with 448 snaps played, but he struggled with a 53.5 PFF grade. This is nothing new for him, as the 2020 5th round pick has finished below 60 on PFF in four of five seasons in the league. Also a poor run defender, Washington has just a 5.9% pressure rate in his career. Already in his age 29 season, Washington is who he is at this stage of his career and will likely continue struggling in 2025, but he will have to continue playing a significant role because the Ravens lack a better option. 

The Ravens did lose nose tackle Michael Pierce to retirement this off-season and, though he played just 231 snaps across 11 games, he could still be missed because he excelled with a 80.6 PFF grade. To replace him, the Ravens signed John Jenkins, but he is highly unlikely to be as good as Pierce. Jenkins was a solid run defender in his prime, but he has finished below 60 on PFF in two of the past three seasons, including a 53.1 PFF grade across 606 snaps in 2024, and now he’s heading into his age 36 season. The Ravens did use a 6th round pick on Aeneas Peebles, who has some upside as a developmental project, but he is unlikely to contribute in a significant positive way as a rookie. The Ravens have a pair of talented interior defenders in Nnamdi Madubuike and Travis Jones, but the rest of this group leaves something to be desired.

Grade: B

Linebackers

Starters Roquan Smith and Trenton Simpson remain at linebacker. Smith had a down year in 2024 with a 65.2 PFF grade across 992 snaps, after grades of 70.6 and 80.1 on snap counts of 1,039 and 1,066 respectively in 2022 and 2023, but he did get better down the stretch in 2024, with a 75.6 PFF grade from week 11 on, coinciding with the Ravens’ significant defensive improvement down the stretch. Still only in his age 28 season, the former 2018 8th overall pick has a lot of bounce back potential in 2025. 

Simpson, meanwhile, struggled with a 58.7 PFF grade across 654 snaps, leading to him getting benched down the stretch for Malik Harrison, who wasn’t any better, with a 50.4 PFF grade across 371 snaps. Harrison is no longer with the team, which opens the door for Simpson to get back into the starting lineup. The 2023 3rd round pick is only going into his age 24 season and could easily take a step forward in his third season in the league in 2025, but that’s not a guarantee. With Harrison gone, the only competition the Ravens have for him is Teddye Buchanan, a 4th round rookie who will likely begin his career as a reserve and who could easily struggle if forced into a significant role in year one. Roquan Smith has bounce back potential and elevates this position group, but, aside from him, this group is underwhelming.

Grade: B

Secondary

Roquan Smith’s improvement down the stretch is a big part of the reason why the Ravens’ defense improved down the stretch, but the biggest reason is the changes they made in the secondary. To begin the season, Marcus Williams and Ar’Darius Washington played safety together in sub packages, with Kyle Hamilton moving to the slot and Marlon Humphrey and Brandon Stephens being the outside cornerbacks. 

Starting in week 11, Marcus Williams, who had a terrible 42.9 PFF grade, was benched and played just two snaps the rest of the way. In his absence, Washington and Hamilton became every down safeties, Marlon Humphrey moved to the slot in sub packages, and first round rookie Nate Wiggins took on a bigger role as an outside cornerback opposite Brandon Stephens. Washington excelled last season with a 80.3 PFF grade across 726 snaps, but he is a complete one-year wonder, as the 2021 undrafted free agent played just 145 snaps in his first three seasons, and he is also questionable for the 2025 season after an off-season achilles tear. Fortunately, the Ravens used a first round pick on Malaki Starks, who figures to take Washington’s place in the starting lineup. 

Starks might not be as good as Washington was last season, but he comes into the league with a lot of upside. Hamilton, meanwhile, is one of the best safeties in the league, as the 2022 1st round pick has received PFF grades of 82.3, 84.7, and 90.1 in his first three seasons in the league and could still have better days ahead, only going into his age 24 season. The biggest issue at safety with Washington out is depth, as the only other safeties on the roster are 2024 7th round pick Sanoussi Kane, who played 22 snaps as a rookie, 2024 undrafted free agent Beau Brade, who played 11 snaps as a rookie, and a pair of undrafted rookies Desmond igbinosun and Keondre Jackson, all of whom figure to struggle if forced into a significant role by an injury to one of the starters.

At cornerback, Brandon Stephens left as a free agent, but he had a 55.8 PFF grade across 1,047 snaps last season, so that could be addition by subtraction, especially since the Ravens replaced him with Chidobe Awuzie. Awuzie has finished above 60 on PFF in seven of eight seasons in the league, including three seasons above 70, but he does come with some risk, due to his age and injury proneness. He’s going into his age 30 season, hasn’t had a PFF grade above 70 since 2021, and has missed at least eight games in three of the past five seasons, while missing 31 games total over that stretch. 

Awuzie has some upside and it won’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Brandon Stephens, but he also comes with a lot of downside. The Ravens also lack depth at cornerback, which is a big problem, given Awuzie’s injury history. Their depth options include 2024 4th round pick TJ Tampa, who struggled across 18 snaps as a rookie, 2022 4th round pick Jalyn Armour-Davis, who has played just 172 mediocre snaps in three seasons in the league, and a pair of 6th round pick rookies, Bilhal Kone and Robert Longerbeam, all of whom would likely struggle if forced into a significant role by an injury ahead of them on the depth chart.

Fortunately, Marlon Humphrey and Nate Wiggins remain and are a talented duo. Humphrey was a first round pick in 2017 and has finished above 60 on PFF in all eight seasons in the league, including six seasons above 70 and a career best 81.0 PFF grade across 903 snaps in 2024. He might not be quite as good again in 2025 as he was in a career best year in 2024, but he should remain a high-level cornerback, still only in his late prime in his age 29 season. Wiggins, meanwhile, had a 70.7 PFF grade across 679 snaps as a rookie and could easily take another step forward in year two, still only in his age 22 season. The Ravens’ lack of depth in the secondary is a concern, but their top-3 cornerbacks and top-2 safeties are a very talented group.

Grade: A-

Kicker

Kicker was the Ravens’ Achilles heel last season, as Justin Tucker cost the Ravens 5.24 points compared to an average kicker, a big deal for a team that didn’t lose by more than one score all season. That was surprising, as Tucker is one of the best kickers of all-time, but he was getting up there in age and, between that and some off-the-field accusations that surfaced this off-season, the Ravens made the decision to move on from him and replaced him with 6th round pick Tyler Loop, who was arguably the best kicker in the draft class. It remains to be seen how good Loop can be at the NFL level, but it wouldn’t be hard for him to be a significant upgrade over what Tucker was in 2024.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Ravens finished the 2024 season ranked 1st in yards per play differential and first down rate differential, which are more predictive year-to-year than a team’s win/loss record. They were especially good down the stretch and, if not for a fluky turnover margin in a loss to the Bills in which the Ravens won the first down rate battle by 2.67 and the yards per play differential by 7.56%, the Ravens could have gone on a deep playoff run last season. There are some reasons why they might not be quite as good again in 2025, including the fact that they are unlikely to have the fewest adjusted games lost to injury in the league again, but, overall, this looks like one of the best teams in the league.

Prediction: 16-1, 1st in AFC North

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills: 2024 AFC Divisional Round Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (13-5) at Buffalo Bills (14-4)

The Bills finished the regular season one game better than the Ravens, one and a half games if you ignore the Bills’ meaningless week 18 loss to the Patriots, but the Ravens faced a much tougher schedule, with an opponents’ winning percentage of .529, second best among playoff qualifiers, as opposed to .467 for the Bills, third worst among playoff qualifiers. Both teams blew out inferior opponents in the first round of the post-season, but in the regular season, the Ravens had much more success against playoff qualifiers than the Bills did, as the Bills played just five playoff qualifiers, tied for fewest among playoff qualifiers, and went just 2-3 with a -15 point differential in those games, while the Ravens played ten playoff qualifiers, most among playoff qualifiers, and went 7-3 with +112 point differential, which was best among playoff qualifiers by a wide margin.

Despite the much tougher schedule, the Ravens finished the regular season with significantly better numbers in yards per play differential and first down rate differential, finishing first in both categories by a wide margin at +1.66 and +6.36% respectively (second place in both metrics was +0.99 and +4.70% respectively). The Bills, on the other hand, finished the regular season with a yards per play differential of +0.55 and a first down rate differential of 1.50%, even if we exclude their meaningless week 18 game. Both of those metrics are significantly more predictive than win/loss records. The Bills did have a significantly better turnover margin (+24 vs. +6), but turnover margins are not very predictive. In fact, teams with turnover margins better than +1 per game in the regular season have a turnover margin on average of -0.3 in the post-season and have a post-season record of just 23-24.

The Ravens also got significantly better down the stretch once they benched struggling safety Marcus Williams after week 10. From week 11 to week 18, their defense ranked first in both yards per play allowed (4.39) and first down rate allowed (26.44%). In fairness, their offense wasn’t quite as good over that stretch as it was on the season as a whole, but they still ranked 4th in first down rate and 2nd in yards per play during that stretch at 34.76% and 6.50 respectively. In total, the Ravens had a yards per play differential of +2.11 and a first down rate differential of +8.33% over that stretch, both best in the league.

This spread seems to take some of this into account, favoring the Ravens by 1 point on the road, despite the Bills having a better record, but I think we’re still getting some line value with the visitors. My biggest concern with betting the Ravens is that they will likely be without top wide receiver Zay Flowers for the second straight week due to injury, after being one of the healthiest teams in the league in the regular season, but even with his absence the Ravens still have a 4-point edge over the Bills in my roster rankings, so I think the Ravens are still bettable even without Flowers, albeit for a smaller play than if Flowers was playing.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Buffalo Bills 24

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -1

Confidence: Medium

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens: 2024 AFC Wild Card Round Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) at Baltimore Ravens (12-5)

The Ravens finished the regular season first in both yards per play differential and first down rate differential by a wide margin, with their yards per play differential of +1.66 being significantly better than the second best team at +0.99 and their first down rate differential of +6.36% being significantly better than the second best team at +4.70%. Their offense led the way with a 6.85 yards per play average (2nd best in the league was 6.24) and a 36.22% first down rate (2nd best in the league was 35.90%), but their defense has also been especially good in recent weeks, since making a switch at safety from Marcus Williams to Ar’Darius Washington in week 11.

Since week 11, their defense ranks first in both yards per play allowed (4.39) and first down rate allowed (26.44%). In fairness, their offense hasn’t been quite as good over that stretch as it was on the season as a whole, but they still ranked 4th in first down rate and 2nd in yards per play during that stretch at 34.76% and 6.50 respectively. In total, the Ravens have a yards per play differential of +2.11 and a first down rate differential of +8.33% since week 11, both best in the league.

That is despite the fact that the Ravens played playoff qualifiers in five of seven games over that stretch. In fact, no playoff qualifier played more other playoff qualifiers this season than the Ravens who played ten. In those ten games, they went 7-3 both straight up and against the spread, with a point differential of +112, best among playoff qualifiers against other playoff qualifiers by a wide margin, with the Chiefs being second at +42 (excluding their meaningless week 18 loss to the Broncos). The Ravens’ point differential against playoff qualifiers was powered by five wins over other playoff qualifiers by at least 10 points, very relevant considering this line is 9.5.

The Steelers, on the other hand, were one of the weaker playoff qualifiers. They did go 4-3 against other playoff qualifiers, but with a point differential of -30, including double digit losses in each of their last three games against playoff qualifiers. The Steelers also finished the regular season with a yards per play differential of -0.35 and a first down rate differential of -2.23%, both worst among playoff qualifiers. This line might seem high at 9.5, but with that big of a gap between these two teams, this line seems more than warranted. Additionally, big favorites like this tend to cover at a high rate in the first round of the playoffs, with favorites of 9.5 or more going 11-2 ATS, including 3-0 ATS as favorites of exactly 9.5. That alone isn’t a reason to bet on the Ravens, but if this big line scares you, that is definitely worth noting. 

The Ravens do have one thing working against them that prevents this from being a bigger bet and that is the injury to #1 receiver Zay Flowers. The Ravens have been one of the least injury plagued teams in the league this season and, while Flowers is the only key player they are missing for this game, it is still a big absence, particularly when you consider they haven’t dealt with many significant injuries this season. 

The Steelers also have one key player absent, guard James Daniels, but he has been out since week 4 and, unlike the Ravens, the Steelers have had many significant injuries this season, as key players like starting quarterback Russell Wilson (6 games), talented center Zach Frazier (2 games), talented guard Isaac Seumalo (4 games), top wide receiver George Pickens (3 games), top cornerback Joey Porter (1 game), talented safety DeShon Elliott (2 games), and talented edge defenders Alex Highsmith (6 games) and Nick Herbig (4 games) all missed time with injury this season and have since returned. I’m still betting on the Ravens at -9.5, but Flowers’ absence is enough to keep this at a smaller bet and I don’t think I would bet the Ravens at -10.

Baltimore Ravens 26 Pittsburgh Steelers 13

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -9.5

Confidence: Medium

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: 2024 Week 18 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (3-13) at Baltimore Ravens (11-5)

The Ravens are one of the few teams this week that actually has something to play for, as they can lock up the AFC North and the #3 seed in the AFC with a win this week over the Browns. The Ravens are heavily favored to do that, opening as 17.5-point favorites this week, but that arguably isn’t high enough, as the Ravens rank first statistically and in my roster rankings. My roster rankings have the Ravens 11 points above average, while their first down rate differential of +1.63 and yards per play differential of +6.36% are both significantly better than the second ranked teams in those metrics, which are at +1.08 and +4.60% respectively. 

The Browns have a solid defense, but their offense is horrendous. Not only do they rank 32nd in first down rate and 31st in yards per play, but their current quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson is the worst of the three quarterbacks they’ve played this season and one of the worst quarterbacks in recent memory, with one touchdown to ten interceptions in five career starts. I made a huge mistake last week underestimating how bad he was, but he should be picked against almost every time. 

My calculated line for this game has the Ravens favored by 20, which is decent line value, and the Ravens are also in a good spot. The Browns beat them earlier this season, but that was in Cleveland when the Browns’ best quarterback Jameis Winston was under center and that win actually puts them in a bad spot this week, as teams tend to struggle as big underdogs against a team they’ve already beaten as big underdogs that season. Overall, underdogs or 3.5 or more cover the spread at just a 41.7% rate against a team they already beat as underdogs or 3.5 points or more that season. 

There’s enough here for the Ravens to be worth a bet, even with the line being this high. In fact, I’m locking this bet in now because this line could climb if the Ravens chose to rule out injured veterans like Myles Garrett, Jerome Ford, Jordan Hicks, and/or Denzel Ward, who didn’t practice on Tuesday, for this meaningless week 18 game, while the Ravens weren’t missing any key players at Tuesday’s practice and have an obvious reason to give their best effort.

Update: Good news/bad news for this Ravens bet. The good news is the Browns will be without Ford, Hicks, and Ward this week, which are big absences. The bad news is the Browns will be starting fourth string quarterback Bailey Zappe, who is probably better than Thompson-Robinson by fault. The line has moved up to 20 as well, so I’m glad I locked this in at 17.5. Ultimately, nothing changes with this bet, but these are noteworthy updates.

Baltimore Ravens 31 Cleveland Browns 9

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -17.5

Confidence: Medium

Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans: 2024 Week 17 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (10-5) at Houston Texans (9-6)

The Ravens are only one game better than the Texans in the standings, but they have a huge edge in point differential (+103 vs. +20), first down rate differential (+5.45% vs. +0.50%), and yards per play differential (+1.54 vs. +0.16), which are all significantly more predictive than win/loss records. That’s despite the fact that the Ravens have faced a significantly tougher schedule than the Texans, with an opponent’s win percentage of .529, as opposed to .484 for the Texans. 

The Ravens are also much healthier than the Texans. The Ravens have been one of the least injured teams in the league this season, but they’re even healthier now than they have been, as they don’t have a single week one starter absent for this game. The Texans, on the other hand, are missing seven, including wide receiver Tank Dell, safety Jimmie Ward, and right guard Shaq Mason, a trio of key players who went down last week in the Texans’ loss to the Chiefs. In their current injury situations, the Ravens have a 11-point edge over the Texans, giving us a calculated line of Baltimore -9. This isn’t a big bet, but there’s enough line value with the Ravens at -5.5 for this to be worth betting.

Baltimore Ravens 26 Houston Texans 17

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -5.5

Confidence: Medium

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens: 2024 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4) at Baltimore Ravens (9-5)

The Steelers are typically a good bet as underdogs under Mike Tomlin, going 57-38 ATS since Tomlin’s first season in 2007. However, they do have a strong trend working against them in this spot, as teams are 44-61 ATS as underdogs in a same-season regular season divisional rematch against a team they already beat as underdogs earlier in the season, as it’s very tough to pull an upset against the same team twice in the same season. It’s a small sample size obviously, but the Steelers lost and failed to cover the only time they were in that situation under Mike Tomlin, even as good as they are as underdogs in general.

With that in mind, I think the Ravens are bettable as 6.5-point favorites this week. The Steelers have the better record, but the Ravens have significant advantages in first down rate differential (5.31% vs. -1.79%) and yards per play differential (+1.54 vs. -0.14), which are much more predictive than win-loss records. In the Ravens’ loss to the Steelers earlier this season, the Ravens won the first down rate battle by 4.89% and the yards per play differential by 2.00, only losing by two because they lost the turnover battle by two and missed two field goals, which are both much less predictive than yards per play and first down rate. The Ravens also have a 7-point edge in my roster rankings.

It might seem weird to bet a big favorite against a team with a better record, but teams are 140-108 ATS all-time in week 11 or later as favorites of 3.5 or more against a team with a better record than them, as teams tend to be big favorites in that situation for a good reason. That alone isn’t a reason to bet on the Ravens, but I wouldn’t worry about the Steelers having the better record when evaluating this game. This isn’t a big bet, but the Ravens are worth betting this week.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -6.5

Confidence: Medium

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens: 2024 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (4-5) at Baltimore Ravens (6-3)

The Ravens don’t have the best record in the league, but statistically they have been the best team in the league by a wide margin. Their yards per play differential of +1.50 leads the league, with no other team better than +1.25 and only one other team better than +0.86, while their first down rate differential of +5.75% is significantly better than the second place team at 3.72%. Those metrics tend to be much more predictive going forward than win/loss records. 

The Bengals have been better than their record too, with a positive yards per play differential (+0.44) and a positive first down rate differential (+0.85%), despite a losing record, but statistically I still give the Ravens a nine point edge, given how much better the Ravens have been in both of those metrics. The Ravens have also done that despite facing a much tougher schedule. While both teams have faced each other and have faced the Commanders, Browns, Raiders, and Chiefs, the Bengals’ other games were against the Giants, Patriots, Panthers, and Eagles, who have a combined 12 wins, while the Ravens’ other games were against the Bills, Cowboys, Buccaneers, and Broncos, who have a combined 19 wins.

The Ravens also have a seven and a half point edge in my roster rankings, particularly with the Bengals expected to be without talented wide receiver Tee Higgins and starting left tackle Orlando Brown again this week. Given that and their massive statistical edge, my calculated line has the Ravens favored by 10.5 at home, so we’re getting good value with them. Significantly better teams also tend to cover the spread at home on a short week, even in divisional matchups, as divisional home favorites of 6 points or more are 25-16 ATS on Thursdays historically, as long as both teams are on short rest. I like the Ravens a lot this week.

Update: I don’t normally do this until I’ve had time to fully look at all of the games this week, but it’s unlikely I’ll like any games more than this one, so I am making this a rare Thursday Night Football Pick of the Week.

Injury Update: Orlando Brown may play, but the Bengals’ best interior defender BJ Hill is also highly questionable. For the Ravens, tight end Isaiah Likely is out, but interior defender Travis Jones is set to return. If both Brown and Hill play, that hurts the Ravens chances, but it’s very possible one or both miss this game and, even in a worst case scenario, I still like the Ravens a lot. If both play, my calculated line is Baltimore -9.5 and if both are out my line is Baltimore -11. If only one plays, my calculated line is Baltimore -10. Either way, we’re getting good line value with the Ravens in a good spot.

Baltimore Ravens 34 Cincinnati Bengals 21

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -6

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs: 2024 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)

These two teams last met in the AFC Championship last January and, even though that wasn’t that long ago, a lot has changed since then. In that game, the Ravens were at home and favored by 3.5 points, suggesting they were a noticeably better team, with about 1 in 4 games decided by less than three points. That made sense if you looked at how both teams fared throughout the season, as the Ravens had a +5.56% first down rate differential and a +1.23 yards per play differential in the regular season, while the Chiefs were at +3.55% and +0.82 respectively. 

However, the Chiefs hit their stride down the stretch last season, thanks to improved health from tight end Travis Kelce and the breakout of rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice, as well as improved play from quarterback Patrick Mahomes and their offensive line. That led to the Chiefs pulling the upset in Baltimore and going on to win their second straight Super Bowl in their next game.Now going into 2024, the Chiefs have a good chance to continue that high level of play, especially since they further upgraded their receiving corps with the additions of Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown, though the latter will be out for this game.

Meanwhile, the Ravens suffered significant losses this off-season, losing a trio of offensive line starters, a trio of starters on defense, and talented defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, none of whom were adequately replaced. The Ravens’ addition of running back Derrick Henry gets a lot of hype, but Henry is going into his age 30 season and might not be a huge upgrade over departed running back Gus Edwards at this stage of his career, especially since Henry won’t have anywhere near the same caliber of offensive line in front of him as Edwards did last season.

The Chiefs are now the ones favored at home in this game, albeit only by 3 points, suggesting they are the slightly better, but not significantly better team. I think the line is a little low though, as the distance between these two teams is enough to justify the Chiefs being favored by 3.5-5.5 points. The Chiefs are also in a good spot as defending Super Bowl Champions playing at home in week 1, a spot in which teams are 12-6-1 ATS since 2005. The Chiefs flopped in this spot a year ago, losing by one at home to the Lions as 4.5-point favorites, but the Chiefs were without both Travis Kelce and Chris Jones in that one and were facing a Lions team that was better than most realized, going on to come within a couple plays of a Super Bowl appearance last season. The Chiefs should have better luck this time around and there is enough here to justify betting them as 3-point home favorites.

Kansas City Chiefs 26 Baltimore Ravens 20

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -3

Confidence: Medium