Ravens

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 13 NFL Picks, Dolphins, NFL Picks, Ravens, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (4-7) at Miami Dolphins (4-7)

This has been the season from hell for the Ravens. After going 11-5, winning a playoff game, and finishing the season 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential a year ago, the Ravens lost outside linebacker Pernell McPhee, defensive tackle Haloti Ngata, wide receiver Torrey Smith, and offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak this off-season. And then during the season, they’ve lost 1st round pick wide receiver (and Torrey Smith replacement) Breshad Perriman, wide receiver Steve Smith, outside linebacker Terrell Suggs, center Jeremy Zuttah, quarterback Joe Flacco and running back Justin Forsett for the season with injury. They’re also likely going to be missing offensive tackle Eugene Monroe for the 2nd straight week this week, though left guard Kelechi Osemele returns from a one week absence.

As a result of all of these losses, the Ravens are 4-7, rank 26th in rate of moving the chains differential, and are even less talented than that suggests now with Flacco, Forsett and Monroe all going down within the last two weeks. The Dolphins rank 29th and have been horrendous defensively since losing Cameron Wake for the season week 8, but the line is only 3.5, down from 6 a week ago, a significant change. I love to fade significant line movements whenever it makes sense and it does here. The Ravens have a tough game next week, at home for the Seahawks, where they’ll be 4.5 point underdogs. Teams are 74-51 ATS since 2012 before being 4+ point home underdogs. Given that, I’m taking the Dolphins though it’s a no confidence pick. If it goes down to 3, I might consider bumping it up to low confidence, given that 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal.

Miami Dolphins 24 Baltimore Ravens 19

Pick against the spread: Miami -3.5

Confidence: None

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Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 12 NFL Picks, Browns, NFL Picks, Ravens, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (3-7) at Cleveland Browns (2-8)

This has been the season from hell for the Ravens. After going 11-5, winning a playoff game, and finishing the season 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential a year ago, the Ravens lost outside linebacker Pernell McPhee, defensive tackle Haloti Ngata, wide receiver Torrey Smith, and offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak this off-season. And then during the season, they’ve lost 1st round pick wide receiver (and Torrey Smith replacement) Breshad Perriman, wide receiver Steve Smith, outside linebacker Terrell Suggs, center Jeremy Zuttah, and, as of last week, quarterback Joe Flacco and running back Justin Forsett for the season with injury. They’re also likely going to be missing offensive linemen Kelechi Osemele and Eugene Monroe with injury this week.

As a result, the Ravens are 3-7, rank 27th in rate of moving the chains differential, and are even less talented than that suggests now with Flacco, Forsett, Osemele, and Monroe all out. The Ravens have to go with a backfield of quarterback Matt Schaub, a 34-year-old making his first start since 2013, when he really struggled with the Texans, and running back Javorius Allen, a 4th round rookie who has averaged 3.89 yards per carry on 64 carries in his career, behind a patchwork offensive line. That has flipped this line from Baltimore being favored by 2.5 on the early line last week to now being 3.5 point underdogs.

The Browns aren’t any better though and they might be worse. The Browns rank 31st in rate of moving the chains differential and shouldn’t be favored by more than a field goal against anyone other than San Francisco. It’s possible looking back in a week that I’ll say that the Ravens should be added to that list and it’s very possible I don’t know quite how bad the Ravens will be without Flacco, Forsett, Monroe, and Osemele, but I’d like the Browns a lot more as 3 point favorites than 3.5 point favorites because about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal.

The Ravens are also in a better spot. They lost to the Browns earlier this year as home favorites in Baltimore, but teams are 53-30 ATS as divisional road underdogs in a regular season rematch against a divisional opponent they previously lost to as home favorites. On the other side, the Browns host the Bengals next week, a game in which they are expected to be 7 point home underdogs. Teams are 23-53 ATS since 2012 before being 6+ point home underdogs and 14-31 ATS over that same time period before being 7+ point home underdogs. I can’t put any money on the Ravens, but they’re the pick here.

Update: The line has jumped to 4.5. I’ll bite. Even if the Browns win, close to 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or less. The Ravens are in a better spot and the Browns shouldn’t be favored by more than four points over anyone except maybe the 49ers.

Cleveland Browns 19 Baltimore Ravens 17

Pick against the spread: Baltimore +4.5

Confidence: Medium

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St. Louis Rams at Baltimore Ravens: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 11 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Rams, Ravens, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (4-5) at Baltimore Ravens (2-7)

The Rams have benched Nick Foles, who they traded for and gave an extension to this off-season, for backup Case Keenum. Keenum has struggled in a decent amount of action in his career, completing 55.2% of his passes for an average of 6.65 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions across 330 attempts, but it would be hard for him to be worse than Foles has been this season. Foles has posted equally poor numbers, completing 56.6% of his passes for an average of 6.56 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions across 256 attempts and the Rams rank easily dead last in the NFL in rate of moving the chains, wasting the performance of a defense that ranks 4th in rate of moving the chains allowed.

It’s also going to be hard for Keenum to be much of an improvement, considering his limited skill set and that he’ll have to work with the same receiving corps and offensive line that Foles had to work with, both units that are arguably the worst in the NFL. Because of how poor the offense is, the Rams rank 28th in rate of moving the chains differential, despite a strong defense. Their defense hasn’t been quite as good in recent weeks anyway, thanks to injuries to Alec Ogletree, defensive end Chris Long, and especially defensive end Robert Quinn. Long could return this week, but missing Quinn again is a huge absence, considering he’s one of the best defensive linemen in the NFL when healthy.

The Ravens aren’t very good either, ranking 25th in rate of moving the chains differential. After ranking 3rd in that statistic in 2014, the Ravens have lost wide receiver Torrey Smith (free agency), wide receiver Steve Smith (injury), outside linebacker Pernell McPhee (free agency), defensive lineman Haloti Ngata (cap casualty), outside linebacker Terrell Suggs (injury), and offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak (now Denver’s head coach). Now they’ve lost starting center Jeremy Zuttah for the season and could be without left guard Kelechi Osemele with injury as well. Still, they’re a better team than the Rams, which is not what this line suggests at 2.5. Considering close to 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, I’m going to take the Ravens as less than field goal favorites, though I’m not confident.

Baltimore Ravens 17 St. Louis Rams 13

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -2.5

Confidence: Low

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 10 NFL Picks, Jaguars, NFL Picks, Ravens, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6) at Baltimore Ravens (2-6)

The Jaguars rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential at -5.84%. However, they’ve been a lot better since the first 3 weeks of the season. In their past 5 games, they have a differential of -2.92%. What happened? Well, they got a lot healthier. Early in the season, they were missing tight end Julius Thomas, left tackle Luke Joeckel, defensive tackle Sen’Derrick Marks, cornerback Dwayne Gratz, and right guard Brandon Linder. Since then, all of those players, except Linder who is out for the season, have returned. This is a rare instance of a team that has gotten healthier as the season has gone on, as only Linder and possibly linebacker Dan Skuta, are out. That has shown itself on the field.

The Jaguars certainly aren’t a good team, but neither are the Ravens. They ranked 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential in 2014, but this year’s version of this team is a far cry from last year’s version. They lost wide receiver Torrey Smith, outside linebacker Pernell McPhee, and nose tackle Haloti Ngata this off-season. Breshad Perriman, Smith’s replacement, has yet to play this season, while fellow starting wide receiver Steve Smith and outside linebacker Terrell Suggs are out for the season with torn Achilles. They also lost offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak this off-season, which has really hurt their offensive line and running game. As a result, they rank 27th in rate of moving the chains differential at -4.13%. They shouldn’t be favored by 5.5 points here over the Jaguars.

The Ravens are also in a terrible spot. While the Jaguars host the Titans next week, a game in which the Jaguars are expected to be favored, the Ravens host the Rams, who are expected to be road favorites in Baltimore. Favorites are 96-166 ATS before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites since 2008. The Ravens are only 1.5 home underdogs in the early line, so it’s possible they end up being home favorites, but, either way, the logic holds. The Ravens have an upcoming distraction, while the Jaguars don’t.

It also helps that the Jaguars are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 122-87 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 100-59 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 211-214 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.46 points per game, as opposed to 296-419 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.99 points per game. This could easily be a Baltimore field goal win or a Jacksonville win. The Jaguars, as 5.5 point underdogs, are my Pick of the Week.

Baltimore Ravens 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 23

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +5.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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San Diego Chargers at Baltimore Ravens: 2015 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 8 NFL Picks, Chargers, NFL Picks, Ravens, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (2-5) at Baltimore Ravens (1-6)

The Ravens have had a brutal start to their season, losing 6 of their first 7 games. However, they’ve been on the road in 5 of those 7 games and they’re typically a better team at home. They are 47-13 at home since 2008, outscoring their opponents by an average of 9.87 points per game, as opposed to 36-38 on the road, outscoring their opponents by an average of just 0.80 points per game. They’re also 22-14 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of a touchdown or less over that time period, as they are here, though just 0-2 ATS during this tough season.

However, they’re going into a bye here. That might sound like a good thing, but it’s not,as counterintuitive as that might seem. Big home favorites (6+) typically do very well before a bye (59-20 ATS since 2002), but, for whatever reason, small home favorites like the Redskins are here do not. Teams who are favored by 1-5.5 points at home going into the bye are just 37-61 ATS over that aforementioned time period, as they tend to get caught looking forward to the bye. The Chargers are in a better spot, with a relatively easy home game against the Bears on deck.

We’re also getting a significant amount of line value with the Chargers. Neither one of these teams has a good record, but, while the Ravens rank 27th in rate of moving the chains differential, the Chargers are much better than their record, ranking 8th. The Chargers’ defense isn’t very good, but their offense leads the NFL in first downs and yards. They’ve come close to beating both Green Bay and Cincinnati on the road this season and have won the rate of moving the chains battle in 5 of 7 games, including in Green Bay, arguably the toughest place in the NFL to play. Getting more than a field goal with them in Baltimore, against a Ravens team that’s in a bad spot, is a complete steal.

The only reason I’m a little hesitant taking the Chargers is because they’re pretty banged up. Left guard Orlando Franklin, middle linebackers Manti Te’o and Denzel Perryman, tight end Antonio Gates, and safety Eric Weddle are all expected out for this one. Weddle’s injury is especially important because he’s one of the best safeties in the league and doesn’t have much talent around him on San Diego’s defense. Oakland moved the chains pretty easily against them last week in Weddle’s first game missed with injury. Baltimore is pretty banged up too though, obviously still missing edge rusher Terrell Suggs for the year, but are also still missing wide receiver Breshad Perriman and now are once again missing left tackle Eugene Monroe. Their offensive line really struggled without him early in the season. I’m still confident enough in the Chargers to make them by Pick of the Week.

San Diego Chargers 24 Baltimore Ravens 20 Upset Pick +160

Pick against the spread: San Diego +3.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Baltimore Ravens at Arizona Cardinals: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 7 NFL Picks, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Ravens, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (1-5) at Arizona Cardinals (4-2)

I’m pretty torn on this one. On one hand, the Ravens are in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 119-86 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 97-59 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 203-210 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.46 points per game, as opposed to 294-407 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.94 points per game. On top of that, the Ravens, despite being 1-5, haven’t lost by more than 6 all season. Their 5 losses have come by a combined 22 points. Those facts are relevant, considering this line is 9.

That being said, this is probably the toughest game the Ravens have had all season. They played the Bengals, but that was in Baltimore and this is in Arizona. They played the Broncos in Denver, but the Broncos aren’t as good as their 6-0 record and the Ravens still had Terrell Suggs for most of that game. They’ve really missed him. The Cardinals are “just” 4-2, but they actually rank 1st in rate of moving the chains differential and have won that battle in all 6 of their games. In their 2 losses, they won the first down battle by a combined 20 first downs and only lost because they had a -3 turnover margin in both games. Turnover margins are incredibly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. On average, teams that have a -3 turnover margin in a game have a +0.1 turnover margin the following game. That’s why I don’t really like to use turnover margin as evidence for why a team is good. The Cardinals, despite 2 losses, have been very dominant through the first 6 weeks of the season.

Who they’re dominating is a concern though. They haven’t played a very tough schedule, playing New Orleans, Chicago, San Francisco, St. Louis, Detroit, and Pittsburgh (with Michael Vick/Landry Jones). However, the Ravens aren’t much better than any of those teams. In fact, they lost to the 49ers in San Francisco last week. Despite most of their games being close, they only rank 25th in rate of moving the chains differential. Sure, they could easily be 3-3, but their one win came in overtime so they could just as easily be 0-6. They’re more talented that that suggests and they ranked 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential in 2014, but they’ve lost Terrell Suggs, Haloti Ngata, Pernell McPhee, Darian Stewart, and Torrey Smith from that team, as well as offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak, and that’s had a noticeable effect on this team. They’re not very good.

The Cardinals could easily have another blowout victory this week and cover this 9 point line. It helps that they have no upcoming distractions, as they head to Cleveland next week, where they are expected to be 4 point favorites over the Browns. Teams are 105-80 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites and 68-48 ATS before being 4+ point road favorites. The Cardinals aren’t guaranteed to be 4+ point road favorites, but the logic would still hold either way. I’m going with the Cardinals, but this line is way too high for me to be confident.

Arizona Cardinals 24 Baltimore Ravens 13

Pick against the spread: Arizona -9

Confidence: None

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Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 6 NFL Picks, 49ers, NFL Picks, Ravens, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (1-4) at San Francisco 49ers (1-4)

The Ravens are a shocking 1-4 to start the season, but their 5 games have been decided by a combined 20 points, so they could easily be 2-3, 3-2, 4-1, even 0-5 or 5-0 if a few things had changed. They rank 26th in rate of moving the chains differential, but they ranked 3rd last season, so I still think they’re better their current rank. Sure, they’ve lost Torrey Smith, Pernell McPhee, Terrell Suggs, and Haloti Ngata and cornerback Jimmy Smith hasn’t played well at all in his return from a broken foot, but they still have a good amount of talent, they got left tackle Eugene Monroe back from an extended absence last week and Steve Smith returns this week to a receiving corps that desperately needs him, though wide receiver Breshad Perriman returns out and cornerback Lardarius Webb will join him there this week.

Still, they should be able to beat a San Francisco team that is legitimately bad. San Francisco finished last season 21st in rate of moving the chains differential and then lost head coach Jim Harbaugh, right tackle Anthony Davis, running back Frank Gore, left guard Mike Iupati, defensive end Justin Smith, defensive end Ray McDonald, outside linebacker Aldon Smith, outside linebacker Dan Skuta, middle linebacker Chris Borland, middle linebacker Patrick Willis, cornerback Perrish Cox, and cornerback Chris Culliver this off-season. As a result, they now rank dead last in rate of moving the chains differential and you’d be hard pressed to argue they aren’t one of the least talented teams in the league. They’re easily the easiest team the Ravens have faced. The Ravens almost knocked off Denver and Cincinnati and I still believe they’re good enough to win this game by at least a field goal. This line at 2 seems too low.

It helps the Ravens that the Seahawks are in an awful spot, with Seattle coming to town on Thursday. The early line has them as 6 point home underdogs, which is bad news for their chances this week. Teams are 38-76 ATS since 2012 before being 4+ point home underdogs, 20-50 ATS before being 6+ point home underdogs, and 13-29 ATS before being 7+ point home underdogs. As long as this line is under a field goal, I’m comfortable putting money on Baltimore, even though they’ve burned me in the past.

Baltimore Ravens 20 San Francisco 49ers 13

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -2

Confidence: Medium

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Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: 2015 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (1-3) at Baltimore Ravens (1-3)

The Baltimore Ravens have had a tough start to their season. They played their first 2 games on the road, in Denver and Oakland, losing both. The Oakland game was one they should have won and needed to win, but there’s no shame in losing in Denver and both games were very close. Then they hosted the Bengals week 3, their only game at home thus far this season, a very tough game, not just because the Bengals are one of the best teams in the NFL, but because teams typically struggle in week 3 home openers (as a result of all the travelling they had to do to start the season) and because they had a divisional clash in Pittsburgh in 3 days on Thursday Night Football the following week.

The Ravens lost another excruciatingly close game against the Bengals week 3 and then won an excruciatingly close overtime game in Pittsburgh last week, against the Ben Roethlisberger-less Steelers. You can make the argument that the Ravens should be 0-4, but you can just as easily make the argument that the Ravens should be 4-0 with wins over Denver and Cincinnati, two currently undefeated teams.

In terms of rate of moving the chains differential, the Ravens rank 26th (actually worse than the Browns, who rank 25th). I don’t think that’s representative of how good the Ravens are though and it’s important to remember that it’s early and they’ve dealt with a lot of difficult situations. They aren’t the same team that finished 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential in 2014, but I think their actual talent level is much closer to that than to where they currently fall in those rankings. Meanwhile, the Browns are playing very similarly to last season (when they finished 26th), so I think their current ranking is much more representative of them than the Ravens’ is.

Part of the reason why the Ravens aren’t as good this season is injuries (in addition to off-season losses of Haloti Ngata, Pernell McPhee, and Torrey Smith) and the Ravens are incredibly thin in the receiving corps for this one, missing expected starting tight end Crockett Gilmore and expected starting wide receivers Steve Smith and Breshad Perriman with injury from a receiving corps that was thin to begin with. The Smith injury is new, but Gilmore’s and Perriman’s aren’t and this line did seem to move to compensate for the Smith injury. The Ravens were 8.5 point favorites in the early line last week, but are only 6.5 point favorites now.

Conversely, I don’t think the line appropriately compensated for Eugene Monroe’s expected return from a concussion that knocked him out week 1. James Hurst had been playing at left tackle in his absence and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked offensive tackle through 4 weeks. Monroe’s return could really help an offensive line that was really good last season, but hasn’t been thus far this season. Meanwhile, the Browns are expected to be without talented safety Tashaun Gipson in this one, after being relatively injury free thus far this season.

This is the easiest game of the Ravens’ season thus far and I think they have a good chance to beat the Browns by quite a bit and cover this 6.5 point line. Not only is this is easiest opponent of their season, but they have no upcoming distractions with a trip to San Francisco on deck, while the Browns have to host the Broncos next week in arguably the toughest game of their season, a game in which they are expected to be 5.5 point underdogs. Teams are 66-111 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point home underdogs, 35-76 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs, and 19-50 ATS before being 6+ point home underdogs. That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you’re about to host a very tough opponent, serving as a distraction. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. With the Browns, I think it’s both. In addition, home favorites are 93-61 ATS since 2002 before being road favorites when their opponent will next be home underdogs.

On top of that, The Ravens are typically a much better team at home than on the road in the John Harbaugh/Joe Flacco era and they’re in a much better spot against a much easier opponent than their first home game. They are 47-12 at home since 2008, outscoring their opponents by an average of 10.08 points per game, as opposed to 36-36 on the road, outscoring their opponents by an average of just 1.00 points per game. They’re also 22-13 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of a touchdown or less over that time period, as they are here.

It does help the Browns that they are in their 2nd straight road game, after losing in San Diego last week. Teams are 118-84 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 96-58 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 199-206 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.40 points per game, as opposed to 291-401 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.93 points per game. That being said, as long as this line is less than a touchdown, I’m still confident enough to put money down on Baltimore.

Baltimore Ravens 23 Cleveland Browns 10

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -6.5

Confidence: Medium

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Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (0-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)

The Ravens are 0-3 but none of their losses have come by more than a touchdown. Their loss in Oakland was bad, but Oakland doesn’t look quite as bad as they usually do, so that road loss doesn’t look so bad anymore, and they came close to beating both Denver and Cincinnati, who are among the best teams in the league. I had the Ravens as one of the better teams in the AFC going into the season and I still think they have playoff caliber talent, even with the likes of Terrell Suggs, Breshad Perriman, and Eugene Monroe out with injury. They have a weak receiving corps and haven’t been able to get a consistent running game going, but they have a strong offensive line, a solid defense, and a solid quarterback.

They also get a gift here as they are playing the Steelers without Ben Roethlisberger, who is expected to miss at least a month with a knee injury. That greatly increases the chances that the Ravens will avoid 0-4. Roethlisberger is one of the best quarterbacks in the entire NFL and had been playing especially well through the first 3 weeks of the season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked quarterback thus far.

Instead, it’ll be Michael Vick this week, as the Steelers go from one of the best starting quarterbacks in the league to one of the worst. Vick remained unsigned late into the off-season after being utterly ineffective in limited action last season, completing 52.9% of his passes for an average of 4.99 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th worst ranked quarterback, despite playing just 281 snaps. No one played fewer snaps than him and graded out worse. The Jets moved the chains at a pathetic 64.44% rate in the games in which he played at least 50% of the snaps, even worse than when Geno Smith played, when they moved them at a 69.18% rate. Vick is also 4-17 ATS since 2012, which is ridiculously awful, and he won’t get better, going into his age 35 season now. The line only adjusted 6 points for Roethlisberger’s injury. That’s not nearly enough.

Vick does have a much better offensive supporting cast in Pittsburgh than he did with the Jets. He’ll be able to lean on LeVeon Bell as both as a runner and a receiver out of the backfield, he has a solid offensive line in front of him, and he has arguably the best wide receiver in the game in Antonio Brown. However, Roethlisberger isn’t their only major absence from what was one of the least injured offenses in the league last season, as they are also missing wide receiver Martavis Bryant and center Maurkice Pouncey.

On top of that, the Steelers’ defense is a big problem. They ranked 25th in rate of moving the chains allowed last season and rank 19th through 3 games this season, despite a strong showing last week against the Rams’ hapless offense. They’ll also be missing linebacker Ryan Shazier for the second straight game and he’s one of their few defensive players who has played well this season. The Ravens have injury issues, but the Steelers are in a way worse spot than them injury wise.

Perhaps the Ravens will finally be able to establish their running game this week. They finished last season 7th in yards per attempt, but rank just 28th right now. The Ravens are also in a much better spot, with only a home game against Cleveland on deck, while Pittsburgh has to go to San Diego next week, a potential looming distraction that the Ravens don’t have. Teams are 78-54 ATS since 2012 as road favorites before being favored again if their opponent will be underdogs next week. All other road favorites are 60-82 ATS over that time period.

With all that in mind, I really like the Ravens as mere 2.5 point favorites here in Pittsburgh. The Ravens have historically not done as well on the road as they have at home in the John Harbaugh/Joe Flacco era, outscoring opponents by 10.08 points at home, but just 0.97 points on the road, and the public is on them pretty heavily, so it’s not a massive play, but I like the Ravens to win by at least a field goal, if not more, and finally get into the win column.

Baltimore Ravens 20 Pittsburgh Steelers 13

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens: 2015 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (2-0) at Baltimore Ravens (0-2)

I had the Ravens winning 11 games, the AFC North, and making the playoffs coming into the season, after finishing 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential in 2014. However, they have started the season 0-2. Losing in Denver was understandable, but their loss in Oakland was shocking. Their offense bounced back from an awful game against a tough Denver defense week 1, but the same defense that held the Broncos without a touchdown week 1 couldn’t stop the Raiders all game.

You can point to the loss of Terrell Suggs for the season late in the Denver game as a reason, but they still have a very talented defense around him. Losing Suggs (along with Haloti Ngata and Pernell McPhee this off-season) really hurts what was arguably the best front 7 in football last season, but they still have talented players like Elvis Dumervil, Brandon Williams, Timmy Jernigan, CJ Mosley, and Daryl Smith and they have a remade, improved, and healthy secondary behind them. Their defense should be much better than they were against Oakland this season and I still like the Ravens’ chances of competing for a playoff spot. They might be 0-2, but they could just as easily be 2-0 with two road wins right now. Besides, 0-2 teams that made the playoffs the year before are 18-9 ATS against the spread week 3 since 2002.

It definitely helps the Ravens that they are back home now, after starting the season with two road games. They are 47-11 at home since the start of the Joe Flacco/John Harbaugh era, outscoring their opponents by an average of 10.33 points per game, as opposed to 35-36 on the road, outscoring their opponents by an average of just 0.97 points per game. They’re also 22-12 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of a touchdown or less over that time period. However, they’re also in a bad spot, coming off of two road games to start their season. Teams that have their first home game week 3 tend to be less energized and it shows, as teams in that situation are 22-43 ATS since 1989.

That trend is one of many reasons why I’m actually going against the Ravens this week, despite the fact that they’re a much better team at home and despite the fact that I still think this is going to be a playoff team. The Ravens are in an awful spot this week, with a Thursday Night trip to Pittsburgh on deck. The Ravens will try to be 100% focused for this game, given that they’re 0-2 and playing a good divisional rival, but it might just not be possible. Teams are 21-56 ATS as divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs since 2002. It’s one of the most powerful trends out there that makes any sense.

Meanwhile, the Bengals host Kansas City next week in a game in which they will almost definitely be favored. Road underdogs are 104-61 ATS since 2008 before being home favorites when their opponent will next be a home favorite. Combining that trend and the aforementioned trend, teams are 5-26 ATS since 2002 as divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs when their opponent will next be home favorites. The fact that the Ravens play on Thursday Night next week makes things even tougher for them, as teams are 41-62 ATS as favorites before Thursday Night Football since 2008.

On top of all of that, it’s not like the Ravens are playing a bad team here. Even though this is a home game and the Ravens are a good team, they’re no guarantee to bounce back, even before you consider all of those trends I’ve mentioned. Even if Baltimore ends up making the playoffs, the Bengals are probably still a better team than them. The Bengals actually rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential through 2 games.

It’s only 2 games, but they finished the 2013 season 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential and now they’re finally fully healthy again, after struggling with injuries last season. AJ Green, Marvin Jones, and Tyler Eifert are all healthy after missing significant time with injury last season and, defensively, Geno Atkins seems back to his old dominant self, now two years removed from the torn ACL. The Ravens are the banged up ones, missing not just Terrell Suggs, but also left tackle Eugene Monroe and wide receiver Breshad Perriman. Their depth is awful at both of those positions and their absences have been very noticeable thus far this season. I wish we were getting a field goal with the Bengals, but they’re the better team in the much better spot and that should be able to cancel out the fact that the Ravens are a strong home team.

Cincinnati Bengals 24 Baltimore Ravens 17 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +2.5

Confidence: High

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