Ravens

Baltimore Ravens sign WR Steve Smith

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Ravens, Uncategorized

Steve Smith had 64 catches for 745 yards and 4 touchdowns last season. Excluding the Jimmy Clausen season and his injury plagued 2004 season, those were his worst since his rookie year in 2001. That’s just what happens to receivers this age. Even the average top-20 receiver (in terms of yardage all-time) has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37.

Steve Smith is 19th in all-time receiving yards yardage, but he’s also going into his age 35 season. That’s why it’s risky to give him a 3-year 10.5 million dollar deal, even if only the first year’s salary of 4.5 million is guaranteed, and why it was a good idea for the Panthers to cut him, even if they were incredibly thin at wide receiver. Even a 1-year, 4.5 million dollar deal for Steve Smith is too much, even for a wide receiver needy team like the Ravens. Steve Smith has had a great career, but there’s a chance he just falls off a cliff in terms of his abilities in his age 35 season.

Grade: C

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Baltimore Ravens re-sign MLB Daryl Smith

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Ravens, Uncategorized

Daryl Smith was Pro Football Focus’ 2nd ranked 4-3 outside linebacker in 2011, but missed most of the 2012 season with injury and was undervalued on the open market, coming from Jacksonville and going into his age 31 season. The Ravens wisely snatched him up and plugged him in at Ray Lewis’ old spot at middle linebacker. Smith proved to be a great addition, providing an upgrade over the late career Lewis, grading out as Pro Football Focus 16th ranked middle linebacker.

He’s now going into his age 32 season, but 4.1 million annually (16.4 million over 4 years) is a very reasonable sum to pay for him and there isn’t a lot of guaranteed money. Ozzie Newsome continues to prove he’s one of the best general managers in the NFL. Teams with rotating doors at GM overpay on big splash moves early in free agency that usually don’t work out, while the top GMs, guys like Ted Thompson (Green Bay), Bill Belichick (New England), Trent Baalke (San Francisco), John Schneider (Seattle), Jerry Reese (NY Giants) and Newsome draft well, re-sign their own guys on reasonable deals, and wait for free agency to come to them.

Grade: A-

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Baltimore Ravens re-sign OT Eugene Monroe

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Ravens, Uncategorized

It’s crazy how much the league seems to undervalue Eugene Monroe. The Ravens were able to steal him from the Jaguars for a mid-round pick this season, probably the equivalent to what they would have gotten in a compensation pick had he just left as a free agent this off-season. Now they lock him up long-term for 37.5 million over 5 years with 19 million guaranteed. Monroe has been a top-16 offensive tackle on ProFootballFocus in each of the last 3 seasons, maxing out as #6 in 2011. He graded out 16th overall this season, but playing even better once he was traded to Baltimore. The Baltimore “version” of Monroe was the #12 offensive tackle this season.

Even if we use his composite grade for the 2013 season, Monroe is still one of just 4 offensive tackles to grade out in the top-16 on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 3 seasons (Joe Thomas, Michael Roos, Andrew Whitworth). Despite that kind of consistency, Monroe’s average annual salary of 7.5 million is just 11th in the NFL, behind both Thomas and Whitworth and only slightly ahead of the underpaid Roos, who happens to be going into his age 32 season, while Monroe is going into his age 27 season.

Compare this deal to the one the Dolphins gave Branden Albert, who got 46 million over 5 years. Albert has never graded out higher than 18th on Pro Football Focus and has declined in each of the past 3 seasons, grading out 18th, 25th, and 28th. Albert also is going into his age 30 season and has a history of injury. It looks like Ozzie Newsome, annually one of the league’s best GMs, has done it again, locking up a player at or below market value.

Grade: A

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Baltimore Ravens 2014 Off-Season Report

stevenlourie 2014 Off-Season Reports, Ravens, Uncategorized

2013 Recap

The Ravens won the Super Bowl in 2012, but I thought they had a more talented team in 2013 and would have more success, at least in the regular season, after they won 10 games in the regular season in 2012. Defensively, they had purged washed up veterans like Ed Reed and Ray Lewis, replacing them with youngsters Matt Elam and Arthur Brown, and they had Lardarius Webb returning from injury and Terrell Suggs returning to full strength. They lost guys like Bernard Pollard, Dannell Ellerbe, and Paul Kruger in free agency, but were able to replace them with Michael Huff, Daryl Smith, and Elvis Dumervil respectively.

Offensively, they lost players like Matt Birk and Anquan Boldin (as well as Dennis Pitta to injury). However, it was reasonable to expect that Joe Flacco would maintain some of his performance gains from the previous off-season, thanks in part to the Ravens’ retooled offensive line (putting Bryant McKinnie at left tackle, Michael Oher at right tackle, and Kelechi Osemele at left guard) and new offensive coordinator Jim Caldwell, two things that were late season changes in 2012 that really paid off in the post-season.

I was half right. Their defense was better than maybe even I thought it would be, finishing 2nd in opponent’s rate of moving the chains. All of the aforementioned defensive players had big impacts with the exception of Michael Huff, who was cut mid-season, but James Ihedigbo had a big impact in his absence. They didn’t really have any holes defensively. However, as good as their defense was, their offense was equally bad, ranking 30th in rate of moving the chains. The losses of Matt Birk, Anquan Boldin, and Dennis Pitta were too much and it didn’t help at all that Michael Oher struggled mightily and Kelechi Osemele missed most of the season with injury. As a result, they finished 8-8 and out of the playoffs.

Now they go into the off-season with a reasonable amount of cap space, but also needing to re-sign 7 starters, including 5 that are average or better (Daryl Smith, Eugene Monroe, James Ihedigbo, Dennis Pitta, Arthur Jones). They have a very top heavy cap structure with 6 players with cap numbers higher than 7 million for 2014 (Joe Flacco, Ray Rice, Terrell Suggs, Haloti Ngata, Marshal Yanda, Lardarius Webb), which is going to make things pretty inflexible for the next few years. There’s still a chance they could bounce back into the playoffs in 2014.

Positional Needs

Wide Receiver

Is there any doubt the Ravens miss Anquan Boldin? Without another receiving threat opposite Torrey Smith, Joe Flacco had the worst season of his career, a year after winning the Super Bowl. He completed 59.0% of his passes for an average of 6.37 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 22 interceptions, all significantly worse than his career averages. Things will only get worse at the position if Jacoby Jones leaves as a free agent. They need to add a new starting wide receiver into the mix.

Tight End

Tight end is another spot where they could add weapons. Dennis Pitta’s return from injury last season really helped the Ravens’ receiving corps, but he’s a free agent this off-season. Also free agents are Ed Dickson and Dallas Clark, leaving them with literally nothing at the position. Matt Furstenburg is tops on their tight end depth chart right now. He’s a 2013 undrafted free agent who has never played a snap in the NFL.

Offensive Tackle

Another position where the Ravens have a lot of free agents is offensive tackle, as both starting left tackle Eugene Monroe and starting right tackle Michael Oher are free agents this off-season. Re-signing Monroe should be one of their priorities this off-season, even if they have to franchise tag him, as he’s one of the better left tackles in the game and one of the few talented offensive players the Ravens have. Last season, he graded out 16th among offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus and was even better after coming to Baltimore from Jacksonville via trade. However, they really need to upgrade Michael Oher, who has been inconsistent in his career at both left and right tackle and this past season was a big part of the reason why the Ravens struggled offensively. He graded out 68th ranked among 76 eligible offensive tackles.

Center

One of the underrated and undermentioned losses from the Ravens’ Super Bowl team was long-time center and anchor Matt Birk, who retired last off-season. The Ravens attempted to replace him with 2012 4th round pick Gino Gradkowski, but he was awful in his first season as a starter, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ worst center and being a big part of the Ravens’ general problems on the offensive line and in the running game. He needs to be upgraded this off-season.

Safety

The Ravens lost both of their starting safeties from their Super Bowl team last off-season and the idea was to replace them with 1st round pick Matt Elam and free agent acquisition Michael Huff. Matt Elam definitely flashed as a rookie, but Michael Huff disappointed and was benched and cut mid-season. Fortunately for the Ravens, unheralded 3rd safety James Ihedigbo stepped up as the other starter, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 16th ranked safety. However, he’s a free agent this off-season, so if he isn’t re-signed, the Ravens will have to find another starter at safety.

Guard

Kelechi Osemele was dominant in the post-season for the Ravens in 2012 and looked poised for a breakout season in 2013, his 2nd year in the NFL, after getting drafted in the 2nd round in 2012. However, he struggled through a back injury before eventually landing on injured reserve. He was replaced by AQ Shipley, who was awful, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 67th ranked guard out of 81 eligible. Osemele will be back in 2014 presumably healthy, but he’s still not a proven starter and could be moving to tackle depending on what happens with Eugene Monroe and Michael Oher. They need better insurance than Shipley.

Kick Returner

Jacoby Jones was their primary kick returner last season and he’s a free agent. They have some internal options to replace him, but they may also choose to go external.

Key Free Agents

OT Eugene Monroe

Re-signing Monroe should be one of the Ravens’ priorities this off-season, even if they have to franchise tag him, as he’s one of the better left tackles in the game and one of the few talented offensive players the Ravens have. He’s graded out 6th, 15th, and 16th among eligible offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus in 2011, 2012, and 2013 respectively and he was even better last season after arriving in Baltimore from Jacksonville via trade. The 8th overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, Monroe deserves upwards of 40+ million over 5 years on his next contract.

DE Arthur Jones

A 2010 5th round pick, Arthur Jones has developed from a solid reserve to a solid starter to a breakout player in 2013 and now is set to cash in. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 12th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2013 and could make upwards of 5-6+ million over 4-5 years on his next year. Early reports say the Ravens are unlikely to retain him, opting to focus on other free agents thanks to the Ravens’ large amount of defensive line depth. One concern with Jones, he’s never played more than 536 snaps in a season and he’s never been the key cog on Baltimore’s defensive line, rotating often and playing alongside Haloti Ngata.

TE Dennis Pitta

Dennis Pitta broke out as a talented tertiary receiving option in 2012, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked tight end in terms of pass catching grade. He caught 61 passes for 669 yards and 7 touchdowns on 396 pass routes run, an average of 1.69 yards per route run, 7th in the NFL among eligible tight ends. However, he suffered a serious hip injury before the 2013 season, which knocked out most of his season, but he caught 20 passes for 169 yards and 1 touchdown in 4 games upon his return, even though he wasn’t 100%. His presence really helped their passing game. He’s not much of a blocker at all, but he rarely lines up inline so it doesn’t really matter. In 2012, he lined up on the slot on 64.6% of his snaps, 6th in the NFL and in 2013, he lined up there on 79.7%. For that reason, it wouldn’t make sense for the Ravens to franchise tag him because he could easily argue that he’s a wide receiver and win. Besides, the Ravens need that franchise tag for Eugene Monroe over anyone. Still, the Ravens should bring him back on a multi-year deal that pays him 5-6 million annually. He’s too important to their offense.

MLB Daryl Smith

Daryl Smith was an underrated stud in Jacksonville, grading out as a top-10 4-3 outside linebacker from 2009-2011, maxing out at #1 in 2009 and #2 in 2011. He missed most of the 2012 season with injury and took a cheap one-year deal with the Ravens for the 2013 season. Moving to middle linebacker in a 3-4, Smith did a solid job as the starter and has earned himself a multi-year deal, going into his age 32 season. His age is a minor concern, but he’s still a starting caliber player and the Ravens will try to bring him back.

S James Ihedigbo

The Ravens lost both of their starting safeties from their Super Bowl team last off-season and the idea was to replace them with 1st round pick Matt Elam and free agent acquisition Michael Huff. Matt Elam definitely flashed as a rookie, but Michael Huff disappointed and was benched and cut mid-season. Fortunately for the Ravens, unheralded 3rd safety James Ihedigbo stepped up as the other starter, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 16th ranked safety. That being said, he’s a career journeyman going into his age 31 season so the Ravens have to be careful how much they pay him. He’s probably a starting caliber player though.

WR Jacoby Jones

Jacoby Jones has gotten a bunch of chances to prove himself as a starting caliber wide receiver, but he’s maxed out at 51 catches for 562 yards and 3 touchdowns in 2010. Now going into his age 30 season, he’s purely a depth receiver whose best attribute is returning kicks. He’s averaged 10.2 yards per punt return in his career on 235 punt returns, scoring 4 times and he’s averaged 26.7 yards per kickoff return in his career on 133 punt returns, scoring another 4 times. However, that’s something that’s going to deteriorate as he ages. He shouldn’t command a big contract.

OT Michael Oher

Michael Oher is well known for being the subject of “The Blindside,” but the 2009 1st round pick has been inconsistent in his career, struggling both on the blindside and at right tackle. He played very well as a rookie and was a solid starter in 2010 and 2011, but he struggled in 2012 and, in 2013, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 68th ranked among 76 eligible offensive tackles. He probably won’t be back as a starter in 2014. He may have to settle for one year prove it deals on the open market.

TE Ed Dickson

Grossly miscast as an inline tight end over the past two seasons, Ed Dickson’s best attribute is pass catching. He’s struggled mightily with inline run blocking duties over the past 2 seasons, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 6th worst ranked tight end in run blocking grade in 2012 and worst in 2013. He’s not that great as a pass catcher either though, as the 2010 3rd round pick maxed out with 54 catches for 528 yards and 5 touchdowns. In 2013, he caught just 25 passes for 273 yards and 1 touchdown on 246 pass routes run.

TE Dallas Clark

Dallas Clark caught 100 passes in 2009, going for 1106 yards and 10 touchdowns, but the aging tight end hasn’t been the same without Peyton Manning and since suffering a serious injury in 2010. In 2010, he caught 37 passes for 347 yards and 3 touchdowns in 6 games and then struggled mightily in 11 games with Curtis Painter in 2011, catching 34 passes for 352 yards and 2 touchdowns. He then moved on to Tampa Bay in 2012, where he played all 16 games, but caught just 47 passes for 435 yards and 4 touchdowns. In 2013 with the Ravens, he caught 31 passes for 343 yards and 3 touchdowns in 12 games as a homeless man’s Dennis Pitta. Now going into his age 35 season, he’ll have to wait a while for the phone to ring, if it does at all.

Cap Casualty Candidates

MLB Jameel McClain

The Ravens have Arthur Brown and Josh Bynes at middle linebacker and could also bring back Daryl Smith, so they really have no need for Jameel McClain, a mediocre player who graded out as well below average on Pro Football Focus last season, playing just 376 snaps. Cutting him and saving 3.2 million in cash and cap space in the process seems like a no brainer.

FB Vonta Leach

Vonta Leach was cut last off-season, before eventually being brought back on a cheaper deal, but he could be cut again this off-season. The Ravens can save 1.75 million on the cap and in cash by cutting him, which would be a very reasonable move considering he’s a rapidly declining run blocker going into his age 33 season and played just 230 snaps last season. The Ravens also have a successor on the roster in 2013 4th round pick Kyle Juszczyk, a much more versatile player.

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Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 17 NFL Picks, Bengals, Ravens, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (8-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (10-5)

This game is very important for both teams. For Baltimore, a win and a loss by either San Diego or Miami puts them in the playoffs, but if they lose they need San Diego, Miami, and Pittsburgh to all lose. For Cincinnati, they need a win to keep them in the #3 seed. If they lose, Indianapolis can move up with a win over the lowly Jaguars and Cincinnati would be in the #4 seed and have to face Kansas City in the first round. A win for Cincinnati also keeps them alive for a first round bye, should New England lose at home to the Buffalo earlier in the day.

Given that this game means equally much for both teams, I really like Cincinnati at lot. They’ve been a dominant home team this season, not just winning all 7 of their home games, one of three home teams to have done so, but also covering in all 7 of their home games, the only team in the league to have done so. Not only that, their margin of victory in those 7 games has been 17.71 points per game. That includes wins over New England, Indianapolis, and the Aaron Rodgers led Packers. Only one of their home games was within a touchdown (Green Bay). The fact that we’re getting the Bengals as mere 5.5 point home favorites over the Ravens is a gift.

Even before we take into account the Bengals’ home dominance, we’re getting line value here. The Bengals are a legitimately dangerous team. They are actually better than their 10-5 record, with the 6th best point differential in the NFL and they’re doing that despite being pretty average in turnover margin (+2). In terms of rate of moving the chains differential, they rank 4th, moving the chains at a 73.54% rate, as opposed to 66.36% for their opponents, a differential of 7.18%.

The Ravens are a solid football team, certainly better than the final score last week against New England would have suggested, but we’re still getting line value with the Bengals. The Ravens are moving the chains at a mere 66.01% rate, with their defense keeping them afloat, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 65.47% rate, a differential of 0.54%, which ranks 14th in the NFL. That suggests this line should be around 9.5, instead of 5.5, again even before we take into account the Bengals’ home dominance.

This line shifted from 3.5 to 5.5 over the past week, which is a significant line movement, but this line never should have been at 3.5 in the first place. That was a huge overreaction to the Bengals’ loss in Pittsburgh, which should not have been seen as a surprise because they aren’t nearly the same team on the road this season. Besides, Joe Flacco’s knee injury may be a significant concern. It certainly seemed to be bothering him in the loss in New England, as he was noticeably limping and completed 22 of 38 for 260 yards and 2 interceptions, much of which came in garbage time.

It’s also worth noting that the Ravens aren’t usually a good road team. Since 2008, the first season of the Joe Flacco/John Harbaugh era, the Ravens outscore opponents by an average of 10.10 points per game, as opposed to 1.28 points per game on the road. That’s not unique to the Flacco/Harbaugh era, as they get outscored by an average of 0.95 points per game on the road since 2002, while they outscore opponents by 7.98 points per game at home. I don’t think you can use the usual 3 point adjustment for home field in their games.

The only thing Baltimore has going for them is they usually play well after getting blown out in the Jim Harbaugh/Joe Flacco era, going 8-1 ATS after a double digit loss since 2008. They usually don’t get blown out twice in a row. However, there’s just so much going in Cincinnati’s favor that this is my Pick of the Week, in a week where there aren’t a lot of good side to be confident in, because of the nature of week 17.

Cincinnati Bengals 24 Baltimore Ravens 10

Pick against spread: Cincinnati -5.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Patriots, Ravens, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (10-4) at Baltimore Ravens (8-6)

The two spots the Tom Brady led Patriots are most dangerous in are both in play this week. The Tom Brady led Patriots dominate off of a loss and they dominate when not favored by 3 or more. In his career, Tom Brady is 29-15 ATS off of a loss. There’s a reason why the Patriots have lost back-to-back regular season games just 4 times over the past 10 years. When not favored by 3 or more (which includes games in which they are favored by 2.5 or fewer or games in which they are underdogs), the Patriots are 41-17 ATS.

Combining those two, Tom Brady is 17-2 ATS as underdogs or favorites of 2.5 or fewer off of a loss in his career. This is a huge eff you situation for Tom Brady and the Patriots. They’ve had to hear for two weeks how they are done without Rob Gronkowski and things will only get worse now that they lost last week. In reality, the Patriots were a play away from a big road win against a quality opponent and had more yards and more first downs than the Dolphins (453 to 378 and 29 to 20). They beat the Saints earlier this season without Rob Gronkowski.

I’m not saying his absence doesn’t hurt their long-term Super Bowl chances significantly, but they are still capable of great performances in the right situation. This is one of those situations. The Patriots have already won straight up against New Orleans and Denver in this situation this season, again even though they were without Rob Gronkowski in the former. Baltimore is playing better football of late, but they don’t exactly fit into that group. If the Patriots can beat the Broncos and the Saints in this situation, they can beat the Ravens.

Yes, both of those games were in Gillette and the Patriots haven’t had a lot of success on road this season, as they are here. However, it helps that they are in their 2nd straight road game. Historically, teams lose by an average of 3.07 points per game on the road after a home game and 2.07 points per game on the road after a road game, as far back as my data goes (1989). On top of that, teams that are in their 2nd straight road game (but not their 3rd straight) before another home game lose by an average of 1.44 points per game.

It seems that teams get used to being on the road in their 2nd straight road game, as long it is isn’t their 3rd straight road game and as long as they don’t have to go on the road again the following week. One trend that goes off of this is that teams are 101-63 ATS as road underdogs off of a road loss since 2008. Teams tend to cover at that rate historically no matter what year you use to cut off your sample size. This isn’t a new thing. Going off of that, teams are 86-44 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs off of a road loss, before a home game, as long as it’s not their 3rd straight road game.

This is also a very good situation for the Patriots as this is the last big game on their schedule, with only a home game against the Bills left on their schedule. The Ravens, meanwhile, still have to go to Cincinnati, a much tougher game that will have major playoff implications. Teams are 116-86 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, while teams are 81-98 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs.

Combining those, teams are 86-54 ATS as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponent will next be road underdogs. It makes sense. The Patriots don’t have any distractions that would keep them from pulling this upset, while the Ravens also have to focus on the Bengals next week. I’m not saying the Ravens will completely overlook an opponent like the Patriots, but they’re definitely in the worse spot.

This is also a huge revenge game for the Patriots, who lost to the Ravens twice last season. The Patriots rarely lose back-to-back games to an opponent, but when they do, they are 9-5 ATS in the 3rd game. Along with the Denver game, this is one game the Patriots have definitely had circled all season. They’ll put forth their best effort, especially off of a loss. Again, I’m not saying the Ravens will completely overlook them, but they have other things going on that could easily lead to them not being as focused as the Patriots here.

One other thing that works against the Ravens is how close their big upset win in Detroit was last week. Teams are 24-40 ATS as home favorites since 2002 after a road win by 3 or fewer points as underdogs of 3 or more. That was such an emotional win, both in the way they won, on a last second 61-yard field goal, and the situation, as big road underdogs on Monday Night Football needing a win to stay in the playoff race. That could easily bleed into this game.

The only thing that works against the Patriots here is how good the Ravens are at home. The Ravens are 41-8 at home since 2008, Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh’s first season with the team. As a result, they are 19-9 ATS as home favorites of less than 7 or home underdogs. However, 6 of those 8 losses came to Peyton Manning (twice), Aaron Rodgers, and the Steelers (three times). I think Tom Brady and the Patriots would fit in there. That’s not enough to keep this from being my Pick of the Week.

On final note, I wouldn’t put any money on this game right away. Field goal protection with the Patriots is going to be so important. I mean it’s always important, but 19 of the Ravens’ last 33 games (including playoffs) and 9 of their 14 games this season have been decided by a field goal or less either way. If the Ravens do win, there’s a good chance it would be by a field goal. There’s a much better chance this line shifts from 2.5 to 3 than to the Patriots being favored or something, so it’s beneficial to wait a little bit, unless you start to see the line move down. The marginal benefit of this line moving up is so much more than the marginal benefit of this line moving down. Either way, it’s my Pick of the Week.

New England Patriots 20 Baltimore Ravens 16 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: New England +2.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Baltimore Ravens at Detroit Lions: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 15 NFL Picks, Lions, Ravens, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (7-6) at Detroit Lions (7-6)

The Lions lost last week in Philadelphia by the score of 34-20. The Eagles won that game on the strength of a 28-6 margin in the 4th quarter, after the Lions led by 14-6 going into the 4th quarter. However, now the Lions return home where they are 4-2 and outscore opponents by 7.17 points per game, as opposed to on the road, where they are 3-4 and get outscored by opponents by 2.57 points per game.

Furthermore, underdogs who lead by more than a touchdown going into the final period and still lose are 28-16 ATS since 1989 as favorites the following week. There seems to be something to blowing an upset victory late, but still being favored the following week. The Lions’ loss last week was largely snow related and now they can take out all of their frustrations at home against the Ravens.

The Lions’ last 3 losses have all been pretty fluky, as they’ve had -3, -5, and -3 turnover margins in those 3 games. The Lions are 7-6 despite a -10 turnover margin on the season, which might sound bad, but I think it’s more impressive than anything. Turnover margins are very inconsistent. For instance, teams that have a -4 turnover margin have an average turnover margin of about +0.0 the following week, about the same as teams that have a +4 turnover margin. When this team doesn’t lose the turnover battle, they can compete with anyone in the NFL. They are moving the chains at a 74.94% rate, as opposed to 69.33% for their opponents, a differential of 5.61%, which is 6th in the NFL. They’re underrated.

The Ravens are underrated as well. They have been terrible offensively this season, moving the chains at a 66.58% rate, but they have an amazing defense, which allows opponents to move the chains at a 64.49% rate. That’s a differential of 2.09%, which is 11th in the NFL. On top of that, they have Dennis Pitta back from injury, which will help their offense. He played well in limited action in his first game back and he should be even better in his 2nd game back.

However, the Ravens are not the same team on the road. They are 1-5 on the road, as opposed to 6-1 at home. This isn’t a new thing. Since 2008, the Ravens are 41-8 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 11.00 points per game, as opposed to 29-28 on the road, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.26 points per game.  It’s not a big play, but I like the Lions’ chance of bouncing back at home against a Ravens team that struggles on the road.

Detroit Lions 24 Baltimore Ravens 13

Pick against spread: Detroit -6

Confidence: Low

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Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Ravens, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (3-8-1) at Baltimore Ravens (6-6)

The Ravens won at home last week against the Steelers, but did not cover. However, you could definitely argue they deserved to cover. They scored 6 times (1 touchdown, 5 field goals), as opposed to 3 times for Pittsburgh (3 touchdowns) and still could have covered if they had scored a touchdown on a Jacoby Jones kickoff return that Mike Tomlin “accidentally” interfered with. They punted just one time all game.

Failing to cover against the Steelers is nothing new though as they seem to have had their number recently. Since the start of the Joe Flacco/John Harbaugh era in 2008, the Steelers have covered 5 times in Baltimore (as opposed to one Baltimore cover), including 3 times as favorites or underdogs of 7 or fewer. Ordinarily, the Ravens are dominant as home underdogs or home favorites of 7 or fewer in the Joe Flacco/John Harbaugh era.

With the exception of games against the Steelers, who seem to have their number, the Ravens are 18-5 ATS at home as long as they aren’t favored by more than a touchdown. That’s the case here as the Ravens are favored by a touchdown. That might seem like a lot of points, but you could easily argue this line is too low, even before you consider the Ravens’ home dominance and any other situational factors.

The Ravens are playing better football now than at the start of the season. Their defense is still dominant, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 69% rate, and their offense is coming around, moving the chains at a 71% rate. That differential is 11th in the NFL. They’ll be even better if they get Dennis Pitta back this week from injury, which would give them a much needed reliable 2nd weapon, something they haven’t had all season. He’s considered questionable at this point.

The Vikings, meanwhile, are one of the worst teams in the NFL, moving the chains at a 73% rate, as opposed to 79% for their opponents, a differential that is 29th in the NFL. That suggests this line should be around 8, instead of 7. Again, that’s before you even consider the Ravens’ home dominance and any other situational factors. What situational factors are at play here? Well, the Ravens will be significantly more rested than the Vikings. The Vikings are coming off of a 2nd straight overtime game, including a tie and a game that almost went to a tie. That’s essentially 10 quarters of football in a 2 week stretch. I don’t have any numbers that show that’s a huge negative thing because it happens so infrequently, but it can’t help.

The Ravens, meanwhile, are coming off of a Thursday night game, so they’ll have extra rest before this one. Teams generally cover more often than not off of a Thursday night game, going 75-58 ATS since 2008. That percentage is higher when the team has been at home the whole time, for obvious reasons. Teams are 26-16 ATS since 1989 at home off of a Thursday night home game. This is a very cushy spot for the Ravens here, while the Vikings could be running on fumes. Since 1989, teams are 15-7 ATS off of a Thursday night game when their opponent is coming off of an overtime game. The Ravens should blow the Vikings out easily here. They are also my survivor pick.

Baltimore Ravens 24 Minnesota Vikings 10 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Baltimore -7

Confidence: High

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Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#15)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Ravens, Uncategorized

Last week: 15 (+0)

Record: 6-6

Baltimore won a must win over Pittsburgh this week, but it was a little close for comfort for a Baltimore team whose strength is home dominance. They have just 2 home games the rest of the way as this week’s game against Minnesota in Baltimore will be followed by trips to Cincinnati and Detroit and a home game against New England. Their schedule could easily work against them as they try to nail down that 6th and final playoff spot.

Week 12 Studs

WR Jacoby Jones

LT Eugene Monroe

LE Arthur Jones

LOLB Elvis Dumervil

ROLB Terrell Suggs

CB Corey Graham

Week 12 Duds

LG AQ Shipley

C Gino Gradkowski

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 13 NFL Picks, Ravens, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-6) at Baltimore Ravens (5-6)

The Ravens have been pretty unbeatable at home over the past few seasons, going 27-4 at home since 2010. Even this year, their worst year of that time frame, they are 5-1 at home, including 6-0 ATS. Because of that, I automatically think about taking the Ravens as small home favorites in a game they pretty much have to just win. They are 5-3 ATS as home underdogs or home favorites of 3 or fewer over that time frame.

However, the Steelers are one team that has had success in Baltimore over that time frame, delivering them 2 of their 4 losses and one of those home non-covers as underdogs or small home favorites. For the record, their other two losses were to Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers, while their other non-covers were to Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, a pretty good group. The Steelers have actually won and covered in two of their last three instances over the Ravens in Baltimore since the 2010 season.

Sure, they’re not the same Steeler team they were then, but they came in and won as touchdown underdogs with Charlie Batch under center during last year’s 8-8 season and that was when the Ravens were better than they are now. The injury to Dennis Pitta and the departure of Anquan Boldin have turned this into one of the worst offenses in the NFL. Their offensive line and their running game aren’t playing well either. Outside of the Joe Flacco to Torrey Smith combination, nothing is really working well for the Ravens offensively.

The Steelers are also in a good spot as divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites. Teams are 103-71 ATS in that spot since 2002. I’m still taking the Ravens. These two teams are very evenly matched because of how good the Ravens’ defense is. They are 11th (Ravens) and 13th (Steelers) in rate of moving the chains differential. The Steelers’ success in Baltimore scares me, but as long as these two teams are evenly matched, I’m taking the Ravens at home as small favorites. I’m not confident though.

Baltimore Ravens 17 Pittsburgh Steelers 13

Pick against spread: Baltimore -2.5

Confidence: None

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