Last week: 18 (+3)
Record: 4-6
Week 11 Studs
QB Joe Flacco
LT Eugene Monroe
RG Marshal Yanda
C Gino Gradkowski
MLB Daryl Smith
Week 11 Duds
ROLB Terrell Suggs
[switch_ad_hub]
[switch_ad_hub]
[switch_ad_hub]
Ravens
New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick
New York Jets (5-5) at Baltimore Ravens (4-6)
So far, the Jets have alternated wins and losses over the first 10 games, the first team in NFL history to do so. Can they extend that into 11 games and win here in Baltimore? Well, I think the fact that they’ve done so well off of losses this season is something worth noting. The public tends to overreact to their losses because they’re the Jets and they’re the media’s punching bad. The Jets do a very good job feeding off of that and winning as an undervalued and overlooked opponent. The Jets are also in a good spot as road underdogs off of a road loss. Teams are 98-58 ATS in this spot since 2008 and cover at close to a 65% rate historically no matter what year you use to cut off your sample.
The Ravens, meanwhile, are in a bad spot. They could overlook the Jets with a game against the Steelers on Thursday Night Football next week. Favorites are 27-50 ATS before a Thursday Night Game since 2008, including 11-26 ATS before a divisional Thursday Night Game. We saw both the Titans and Colts fall flat in a huge way in this situation 2 weeks ago and last week the Saints had their first non-cover at home under Sean Payton since 2010, snapping a streak of 13 straight covers with a push. The Ravens are also coming off a crushing overtime loss as underdogs in Chicago last week. Home favorites are 18-30 ATS since 1989 off of a loss as road underdogs in overtime.
All that being said, I can’t put anything on the Jets. The Ravens are pretty unbeatable at home, going 26-4 straight up since 2010. Those 4 losses include two against the rival Steelers, who always play the Ravens tough, the Packers, and the Broncos. I really don’t think the Jets are that caliber. Even this year, when they’ve struggled by their standards, they are 4-1 at home, losing only by 2 against the Packers and covering in all 5 instances. The Jets don’t have to win here to cover, which is why I think they’re the right side, but we’re not getting enough points here for me to be that confident in the Jets. If this line increases, I might increase the confidence. The Ravens are just 6-10 ATS since 2010 as home favorites of 5.5 or more. That’s a long way away though.
Baltimore Ravens 20 New York Jets 17
Pick against the spread: NY Jets +4
Confidence: None
[switch_ad_hub]
[switch_ad_hub]
[switch_ad_hub]
Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick
Baltimore Ravens (4-5) at Chicago Bears (5-4)
This is one I could go either way on. Both teams are in good spots and distraction free. The Ravens host the Jets next week and will be favored, while the Bears go to St. Louis and will be favored. Non-divisional home favorites are 69-47 ATS since 2008 before being non-divisional road dogs and non-divisional road dogs are 98-63 ATS before being non-divisional home favorites.
These two teams are also as evenly matched as they come. Baltimore has a horrible offense that is moving the chains at a 68% rate, but their defense is holding opponents to 68% as well. Chicago has a horrible defense that allows opponents to move the chains at a 77% rate, but their offense moves the chains at a 77% rate. They are 16th and 15th respectively in rate of moving the chains differential and this line at 3 makes perfect sense. We’re not getting any line value with either side.
Chicago is dealing with crippling injuries. Before the season, the Bears had 6 above average or better starters, Julius Peppers, Henry Melton, Lance Briggs, Tim Jennings, Charles Tillman, and Major Wright. Henry Melton is already out for the season. Charles Tillman is now out until the playoffs, if they can make them. Lance Briggs is out indefinitely. None of those guys were playing up to their ability before going down anyway. Julius Peppers is showing his age and Major Wright is regressing in a major way.
Their defense could get worse going forward, which would put even more pressure on their offense, which is also dealing with a serious injury as Jay Cutler is out. Josh McCown has played well in Cutler’s absence, arguably as good as Cutler could have, completing 60.0% of his passes for an average of 7.69 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and no interceptions. There are no guarantees he can keep that up though, given his career numbers (58.7%, 6.37 YPA, 41 touchdowns, 44 interceptions), despite the strong offensive supporting cast and coaching staff.
Baltimore, however, has been absolutely awful on the road thus far this season, going 1-4, losing in Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo, while getting blown out in Denver. This isn’t a new trend. Since 2010, they are 26-4 at home, but 18-17 on the road. At the end of the day, I’m going to fade the Ravens on the road, but I’m not confident in Chicago at all. This is the biggest toss up of the week for me.
Chicago Bears 24 Baltimore Ravens 20
Pick against spread: Chicago -3
Confidence: None
[switch_ad_hub]
[switch_ad_hub]
[switch_ad_hub]
Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#17)
Last week: 18 (+1)
Record: 4-5
The Ravens essentially staved off elimination at home last week, beating Cincinnati in a game that never should have gone to overtime. They are now 26-4 at home since 2010 and, as average as they’ve been this year, they are still 3-1 there, with the one loss coming by 2 to the Packers. They still have 4 home games to go so they certainly aren’t out of the playoff picture, a game back of the 2nd wild card. If they make the playoffs, it’ll be because of their loaded defense, which is allowing opponents to move the chains at a 68% rate, not their offense that is moving it at the same rate.
Week 10 Studs
MLB Daryl Smith
CB Jimmy Smith
CB Lardarius Webb
Week 10 Duds
QB Joe Flacco
WR Marlon Brown
RT Michael Oher
LG AQ Shipley
RG Marshal Yanda
[switch_ad_hub]
[switch_ad_hub]
[switch_ad_hub]
Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#18)
Last week: 13 (-5)
Record: 3-5
In his career, Joe Flacco completes 60.4% of his passes for an average of 7.0 YPA, a touchdown every 25 throws, and an interception every 43 throws. This season, he’s completing 59.4% of his passes for an average of 6.9 YPA, a touchdown every 31 throws, and an interception every 34 throws. He hasn’t been worse this season than any other season, but his supporting cast around him isn’t doing their job and the Ravens were clearly expecting him to elevate his level of play. They didn’t have much choice but to pay him what he wanted this off-season because having Joe Flacco is still significantly better than not having Joe Flacco, but their season has been very disappointing, largely due to an offense that is moving the chains at a 69% rate, as opposed to 68% for their opponents. Their schedule gets easier going forward, but this week’s game against the Bengals in Baltimore is absolutely a must win.
Week 9 Studs
LT Eugene Monroe
Week 9 Duds
QB Joe Flacco
[switch_ad_hub]
[switch_ad_hub]
[switch_ad_hub]
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick
Cincinnati Bengals (6-3) at Baltimore Ravens (3-5)
The Ravens lost last week in Cleveland, but they return home this week, where they’ve been much better over the past few years. Since 2010, they are 25-4 straight up at home, with 2 losses to the Steelers, a loss to the 2013 Packers, and a loss to the 2012 Broncos. They’ve been home underdogs just 4 times, covering in 3 (the Broncos game was the exception). The Bengals don’t deserve to be favorites here. Even if you don’t take into account the Ravens’ home field advantage, I think that’s the case.
As bad as the Ravens have been this season, they still rank 15th in rate of moving the chains differential, as their strong defense is limiting opponents to a 68% rate, as opposed to 69% for their struggling offense. The Bengals are better, moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents, but not enough to be favored. The Ravens are also in a good dynamic as home underdogs off of a loss as road favorites. Teams are 55-40 ATS in this situation since 1989.
The Bengals, meanwhile, are not nearly as good on the road as at home. They are 2-3 on the road and they haven’t won a single game by more than a field goal. They lost in Chicago. They lost in Cleveland (worse than Baltimore did last week). They barely won in Buffalo. They won in Detroit by a field goal. And last week, they lost in Miami. Last week’s overtime loss in Miami puts them in a bad spot this week. Teams are 13-33 ATS as favorites off of a road loss in overtime. They are going to have a hard time concentrating this week after last week’s rough loss.
That loss wasn’t the Bengals’ only loss last week. They also lost defensive tackle Geno Atkins for the season with a torn ACL. Even though Atkins hadn’t been playing quite as well he was last season, he still was showing himself to be a top-10 defensive player in the NFL. You can’t just replace a guy like that. On top of that, they’ve already lost top cornerback Leon Hall for the season. Their solid defense might not remain solid for much longer. If the Ravens’ tough defense shuts them down in Baltimore, they’re going to have a very hard time winning, as bad as the Ravens’ offense is. The Ravens should pull the home upset here and stay in the running for a playoff spot.
Baltimore Ravens 17 Cincinnati Bengals 13 Upset Pick +105
Pick against spread: Baltimore +2
Confidence: Medium
[switch_ad_hub]
[switch_ad_hub]
[switch_ad_hub]
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick
Baltimore Ravens (3-4) at Cleveland Browns (3-4)
Obviously, 3-4 is not how the Ravens wanted to start the season, but the schedule gets easier from here for them. After being underdogs in 5 of their first 7 games, the Ravens will definitely be favored in at 4 games (@Cleveland, vs. Pittsburgh, vs. NY Jets, vs. Minnesota) the rest of the way and may be favored in another 3 (vs. Cincinnati, vs. New England, @ Chicago). This is one of them, as they go to Cleveland as road favorites.
Cleveland isn’t an awful team or anything, but the Ravens still deserve to be favored by this margin. Both offenses are sputtering, moving the chains at a 70% rate, but the Ravens’ defense has been significantly better, as opponents are moving the chains at just a 68% rate against them, as opposed to 75% against the Browns’ defense. The Ravens should be able to completely shut down the Browns’ offense this week, which obviously gives them a huge advantage.
The fact that the Ravens deserve to be road favorites is especially important because of how good road favorites are off of a bye. Teams are 45-18 ATS in that situation since 2002, including an absurd 22-4 ATS in a divisional matchup. This makes sense as good teams tend to be extra focused and take care of business against an inferior opponent with an extra week to prepare. John Harbaugh has been pretty good off of a bye himself since taking over the Ravens in 2008, going 6-1 ATS and winning all 7 games, including last year’s Super Bowl.
The Ravens could also be in another good spot if they are favored next week at home against Cincinnati. The early line was at PK, but after Cincinnati’s loss to Miami and their loss of Geno Atkins, we could easily see the Ravens favored by 1.5 to 2.5 points, which would make this trend kick in. Since 2002, divisional road favorites are 38-22 ATS before being divisional home favorites. The Ravens are in great position to roll over an inferior opponent here (as they did 25-15 in almost this exact situation in Cleveland last year) and they are my Pick of the Week.
Baltimore Ravens 20 Cleveland Browns 9
Pick against spread: Baltimore -2.5
Confidence: Pick of the Week
[switch_ad_hub]
[switch_ad_hub]
[switch_ad_hub]
Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#13)
Last week: 13 (+0)
Record: 3-4
On bye.
[switch_ad_hub]
[switch_ad_hub]
[switch_ad_hub]
Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#13)
Last week: 12 (-1)
Record: 3-4
The Ravens are 3-4, but remember that they were favored just twice in their first 7 games, so they’ve actually exceeded expectations. In their final 9 games, they will be favored at least 5 times, maybe 6 or 7. They host the Jets, the Steelers, the Vikings, Bengals and go to Cleveland, all games in which they will definitely be favored. They also host the Patriots and go to the possibly Cutler-less Bears. They still have a very good chance at a playoff spot.
Week 7 Studs
LT Eugene Monroe
LG Kelechi Osemele
RG Marshal Yanda
Week 7 Duds
None
[switch_ad_hub]
[switch_ad_hub]
[switch_ad_hub]
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2013 Week 7 NFL Pick
Baltimore Ravens (3-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-4)
I’ll admit I was pretty surprised when I saw the Steelers were favorites by 1.5 points here against the Ravens, which essentially suggests these two teams are even. However, it just seems like the odds makers think the Steelers are significantly better than their record. They were right about it last week, as the Steelers ended up being 1 point favorites in New York against the Jets despite being 0-4 and ended up winning. I can definitely understand the arguments in favor of the Steelers being underrated by the public.
They are healthier now offensively thanks to the returns of Heath Miller and Le’Veon Bell, who function as a reliable safety value and a talented running back respectively, two things the Steelers were sorely lacking to start the season. Defensively, they are still playing at an elite level, allowing 88 first downs to 29 punts and their -9 turnover margin probably isn’t indicative of what their turnover margin will be in the future. That type of thing is very random and unpredictable and largely the result of the Steelers’ 23.08% fumble recovery rate, which won’t continue going forward. Their defense is also too talented not to force takeaways. They forced their first 2 of the season against the Jets last week, after being kept out of that category during the first 4 weeks and I expect them to continue forcing turnovers at a reasonable rate.
Meanwhile, the Ravens are not the same team on the road, going 1-2 on the road this year, including a loss in Buffalo and a blowout loss in Denver. Since 2010, they are outscoring opponents by about 11 points per game at home and 1 point per game on the road. I don’t want to disagree with the odds makers on this one when their line is easily defendable, even though I was surprised by it. The public seems to be falling into their trap and taking the Ravens at a high rate. I love an opportunity to pick against a publicly backed underdog whenever it makes sense, but it’s not going to be a huge play.
Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Baltimore Ravens 13
Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -1.5
Confidence: Low
[switch_ad_hub]
[switch_ad_hub]
[switch_ad_hub]
Football Fan Spot 