Ravens

Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers: Super Bowl XLVII Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 49ers, Ravens, Super Bowl XLVII Pick

I did a Super Bowl preview last week, which can be read here, and now I’m going to do an actual Super Bowl pick. For those of you who don’t want to read the whole preview now, here’s a little bit of a summary. The 49ers have been arguably the best team in the NFL throughout the entire season and certainly since Kaepernick took over midseason. However, the Ravens have played on the 49ers’ level over the past month, en route to the Super Bowl.

The Ravens are peaking at the right time. The 49ers have never really had a peak. They’ve been consistently very solid. That’s what makes this game so tough to pick. A month ago, I would have picked the 49ers to win easily, maybe even by double digits, but a lot of changed since then. Jim Caldwell has this offense clicking. Joe Flacco is on fire, thanks to part to Jim Caldwell and an improved offensive line. And the defense has played incredibly well due to Ray Lewis’ on the field leadership. I’ve gone back and forth with this one, so I’m going to put the argument for both teams before I make a final pick.

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens have a lot of history on their side. Underdogs have covered 8 of the last 11 Super Bowls, while the lower seed (if applicable) is 1-12 ATS in the Super Bowl since 1996. Teams that played in the Wild Card round are 7-0 ATS in the Super Bowl since 2002. There’s a simple explanation for that. In order to make it to the Super Bowl as a lower seeded underdog out of Wild Card weekend, you have to play really, really well. Teams like that tend to have a harder road to the Super Bowl than teams like the 49ers. They typically play more games, go on the road more often, and play higher seeds. As a result, they seem to be better prepared for the Super Bowl.

All of those are the case with the Ravens. They’ve played three games to the 49ers’ two. They’ve played two road games to the 49ers’ one. And they’ve been underdogs twice (touchdown plus underdogs in fact), while the 49ers have yet to be underdogs. In order to get to this point, they’ve had to play better than the 49ers have and that seems to be a good predictor of Super Bowl.

An example of how they’ve played better recently than the 49ers is defensively. The 49ers had the better regular season defense, ranking 2nd in the NFL in points allowed, allowing 71 fewer than the 12th ranked Ravens. However, dating back to their week 15 game against the Patriots, they’ve allowed 24.8 points per game defensively (excluding return touchdowns), coinciding with Justin Smith’s injury and Aldon Smith’s definitely related sack drought.

They aren’t getting much pressure on the quarterback and, while their secondary ranked 2nd in the NFL in YPA this season, good quarterbacks who get time can throw on them. This isn’t 10 years ago when you could play good pass defense without getting pressure. It’s tough for defensive backs to win one on one for an extended period of time with all the new rules that have come into play.

They’ve played a tough batch of quarterbacks in those 5 games, including Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, and Matt Ryan, but Joe Flacco is certainly in that group somewhere. The Ravens’ defense, meanwhile, has allowed 14.3 points per game in their last 4 (excluding return touchdowns and a week 17 game in which their starters didn’t play). They’ve seen their fair share of tough quarterbacks as well, Eli Manning, Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning and last week they held Tom Brady to 13, a quarterback who led his team to 34 points (despite 4 turnovers) against the 49ers in an eventual losing effort in that aforementioned week 15 game. If you compare how these teams looked against the only common opponent they’ve had recently, Baltimore clearly looks like the better team.

There’s also the whole story line factor with them: how they have come this far despite tragedy (death of Art Modell, Torrey Smith’s brother), injury (Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs missed significant time, Lardarius Webb is out, while Ed Reed and Haloti Ngata have played through injuries), and struggles (they closed the season losing 4 of 5). There’s nothing scientific about this, but teams with the better story seem like they more often win this game.

San Francisco 49ers

On the other hand, while on paper it appears the Ravens have had to play better in the playoffs to get here, consider that the 49ers are coming from the vastly superior conference. Not a single AFC divisional winner beat an NFC playoff team this year (0-6). In fact, those 4 teams are a combined 8-8 against the NFC this year, as opposed to 39-9 against AFC teams. Overall, the AFC went 25-39 against the NFC this year. The NFC has been better for the last few years and has won 4 of the last 5 Super Bowls. Beating the Broncos and Patriots on the road is impressive, but beating Atlanta in Atlanta and beating the Packers in San Francisco isn’t an easy path either. It’s not like last year when the Patriots just had to play the Broncos and Ravens at home.

Plus, while the Ravens are an underdog, they are a publicly backed underdog. This means two things. One, you’re not getting any line value with them really. They opened at +5, but so much action drove it down to +3.5. Two, I love fading publicly backed underdogs. Fading the public in general is smart when you need a tiebreaker between two sides because the public always loses money in the long run, but I especially like fading public underdogs because it creates a slighted favorite effect. Whenever everyone predicts an upset, it usually doesn’t happen (see Colts over Ravens, Bengals over Texans, Packers over 49ers, etc).

There’s a reason they’ve been favored. The Ravens may be playing better football right now (though that’s debatable when you consider the conferences these two teams come from), but there’s something to be said for the 49ers’ season long play. If they win this Super Bowl, there’s no debating they were this season’s best team, while if the Ravens win, you could still make arguments for teams like the Broncos, Patriots, and 49ers as the NFL’s best team based on their entire body of work. I know this isn’t the BCS. Championships aren’t decided like that and if the Ravens win, there’s no denying they’ll have won the Super Bowl, but you could argue that any of those 3 aforementioned teams had better overall years, especially the 49ers, regardless of the outcome of this game. They just didn’t (or hypothetically won’t have) when it really mattered.

Coming into the post-season, I had the 49ers behind the Packers, Broncos, and Patriots because I felt that in a post-season filled with inexperienced quarterbacks, the three who had won Super Bowls would have an obvious advantage. I questioned Kaepernick’s ability to win on the big stage, coming in with 7 regular season starts and I also questioned how their defense would play with Justin Smith limited. I was right about the latter, but definitely wrong about the former, which was probably the more important one.

In terms of pure talent, the 49ers had the best team this season. They led the NFL in Pro-Bowlers and if fans judgment isn’t your thing, they also led the NFL in All-Pros, as decided by writers, and had the top cumulative team rating on ProFootballFocus. Football is more than a contest of who has the most good players, obviously, as the Chiefs and their 6 Pro-Bowlers won 2 games. It’s a team game, but since the 49ers are in the Super Bowl, it’s safe to say they’re more than just a collection of great players. They’re a very, very good team, especially since Colin Kaepernick took over at quarterback.

The Verdict

This is tough. On paper, the 49ers are have clearly been the better team this season, but games aren’t played on paper. On paper, the Broncos and Patriots were clearly better teams than the Ravens too and they both lost because the Ravens have been playing at a much higher level over the past month and a half. I like to think that an elite team from the superior NFC conference would have better luck, which is why I’m ultimately taking the 49ers, but it’s definitely no sure thing. The game will probably come down to turnover margin, which is tough to predict. I am making this a significant play because it’s the Super Bowl, but any other week, this would be a 1 or 2 unit insignificant play.

San Francisco 49ers 24 Baltimore Ravens 20

Pick against spread: San Francisco -3.5 (-110) 3 units

Prop Bets

Ravens win by 1-6 +420 2 units

49ers win by 1-6 +310 2 units

I’ve done this in each of the past two years and it’s worked out. Basically, if the Ravens win by 1-6, you win +420 and lose -100, so +320. If the 49ers do so, you win +320 and lose -100, so +220. Essentially, you’re getting +270 will this game by decided by 6 or fewer points. 7 of the last 11 Super Bowls have been decided by 6 or less and considering how hard of a time I had picking between these two teams, I say there’s a good chance this happens again.

Both teams won’t make a field goal longer than 33.5 yards -140 2 units

It sounds weird, but both teams have only done so in 10 of 46 Super Bowls. Also, 49er kicker David Akers has hit from 34+ in just 5 of his last 10 games.

Colin Kaepernick less than 43.5 rushing yards +130 1 unit

Don’t like this one was much as the others, but I feel like most people are probably going to take the over because they remember Kaepernick’s ridiculous game against Green Bay. I love fading the public and Kaepernick has only gone over this total in 3 of 9 starts. I know he could go over this at any point with one run, which is why it’s only one unit, but I do like this one.

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Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers: Super Bowl Preview

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 49ers, Ravens, Super Bowl XLVII Pick

Colin Kaepernick vs. Joe Flacco. That’s our Super Bowl quarterback matchup. In the era of the quarterback, that seems inconceivable. A guy with 9 career starts and…well Joe Flacco. In the last 20 years, there’s been one quarterback to win a Super Bowl without first making a Pro-Bowl and that was Eli Manning (version one), who made it the very next year. Even “game managers” like Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson first made a Pro-Bowl. Neither ever really posted eye popping numbers, but no one really did back then. Pro-Bowl voting is obviously flawed, but the general public usually does a good job of picking the correct quarterbacks to go to Hawaii, considering how prominent the position and its stats are.

However, this year, we will have a 2nd quarterback win the Super Bowl without making a Pro-Bowl as neither Joe Flacco nor Colin Kaepernick has ever been elected to the Pro-Bowl and I don’t think either have ever deserved it. Kaepernick is playing great now, but he’s not even in his first full year as a starter, and while Flacco has generally been solid, but he’s easily overshadowed by many other quarterbacks in his 5 years in the league. Let’s take a look at why that happened and what each team winning the Super Bowl would, for lack of a better word, “mean” for historical purposes.

San Francisco 49ers

Of the two teams making the Super Bowl, this is obviously the least surprising. The 49ers earned a 1st round bye for the 2nd year in a row and were favored in each of their two playoff games up to this point, including by 4.5 on the road in Atlanta. I had the 49ers as a possible exception to the Pro-Bowl/Super Bowl “rule” heading into the playoffs and I’m not surprised at all they made it this far.

There are two reasons for that. One, while Kaepernick has never made a Pro-Bowl and never deserved to make a Pro-Bowl, the reasons for that aren’t lack of production and elite quarterback play. It’s merely how long he’s been around. Kaepernick took over for the 49ers at quarterback more than halfway into the season, starting his first game week 11, and while he’s played at a Pro-Bowl level ever since, it has only been 9 games, including just 7 regular season games. That doesn’t earn players a trip to the Pro-Bowl, no matter how you play in those 7 games.

The 2nd reason is just how good this supporting cast is. They led the NFL in All-Pros and Pro-Bowlers and there is not a single weakness on this roster. They run the football among the best in the league, with Frank Gore leading the way, Colin Kaepernick scrambling or rolling out when applicable, and LaMichael James mixed in here and there.

They have by far the best run blocking offensive line in football and they hold their own in pass protection as well. While it’s true that they’ve allowed 41 sacks this year, 9th in the NFL, that’s more on Jim Harbaugh’s instance that quarterbacks wrap up and take the sack when they know they’ve lost, instead of trying to force it out.

In terms of pass block efficiency, which also takes into account hits and hurries, the 49ers rank a middle of the pack 17th. It’s just that Alex Smith was “worst” in the NFL, taking a sack on 33.3% of pressured drop backs. Kaepernick is much better in that regard because of his mobility, however, and since he took over, he’s taken just 18 sacks in 9 games.

Along with their offensive line and running game, they have two talented receivers in Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis. Davis was invisible on the stat sheet up until last week, but that was just because Kaepernick was throwing so often to Crabtree, who was playing the best football of his career. They don’t pass the ball enough for both receivers to put up huge numbers. Even though he wasn’t appearing much on the stat sheet, Davis is still among the best blocking tight ends in the NFL.

Defensively, you know the story. They’ve had the league’s #2 scoring defense in each of the last 2 seasons, though they did allow 3 more points per game in doing so this year than last year. Their front 7 is probably the best in football. All 4 of their linebackers are amongst the best in football at their respective positions, including Ahmad Brooks, who doesn’t post eye popping sack numbers, but is among the most consistent in the NFL at getting pressure and is also arguably one of the best run stuffing linebackers in the NFL. And then, of course, there’s Justin Smith.

If there’s one flaw on this defense, it’s that you can throw on them. Their secondary played well this season, ranking 2nd in the league in YPA allowed, but we’ve seen several elite quarterbacks throw on them before and we’ve also seen some of the not quite elite guys throw on them as well lately. They haven’t been getting quite the kind of pressure they normally get on the quarterback with Justin Smith not playing 100%.

Aldon Smith has kind of faded away with Justin not commanding as many double teams in front of him and if you get time, you can throw on this secondary. It just hasn’t been an issue yet because of how well Kaepernick is playing, but they have allowed 24.8 points per game over their past 5, coinciding with Smith’s injury, not including a Kaepernick pick 6 and a special teams touchdown allowed to Seattle. They’ve played a tough batch of quarterbacks in those 5 games, including Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, and Matt Ryan, but Joe Flacco is certainly in that group somewhere. Still, this is the best supporting cast in football and that’s one of the biggest reasons why they are here, despite a lack of a “traditional” Pro-Bowl quarterback.

Baltimore Ravens

While the 49ers being here isn’t surprising in the least, this is about the exact opposite. This was not a good regular season team. That’s just a fact. They went 10-6, which was tied for the worst record among playoff teams, and they easily could have been 8-8 if Ben Roethlisberger (or even Byron Leftwich) hadn’t gotten hurt and Ray Rice hadn’t converted 4th and 29.

They won a ridiculous 5 games by a field goal or less, now up to 6 after an overtime victory over the Broncos, and they outgained opponents by 20 yards in the regular season. They lost to Charlie Batch at home and fired their offensive coordinator in the same 2 week span. I don’t know this for a fact, but I’m willing to bet that no team has ever made the Super Bowl after doing that, at least until now.

The NFL is no stranger to seeing less than stellar regular season teams go all the way, as the 2007 Giants, 2010 Packers, and 2011 Giants have all recently won Super Bowls with similar or worse records to the 2012 Ravens. However, when those teams have done it, we’ve always been able to look back at how they ended their regular season and say “that’s why they won, they had momentum.”

Unlike those 3 teams, who all had to fight to get into the playoffs and peaked at the right time because of it, the Ravens started this season 9-2, and a fraudulent 9-2 at that, doing it with smoke and mirrors and pulling out several crazy close victories. They appeared to peak early and proof right everyone who called that 9-2 record a fraud, losing 4 of their next 5 games, including two by exactly 3 points after starting 5-0 in games decided by 3 or less.

They weren’t hot heading into the post-season. They were the exact opposite. They tripped backwards into the playoffs. I guess you can point to a 33-14 week 16 victory over the Giants as a “sign of things to come,” but it was reasonable to believe that any momentum they had coming out of that game was lost when they rested starters the following week, in an eventual loss to the Cincinnati Bengals.

All of this is fact. They weren’t a good regular season team. So what happened? Well, I think the takeaway from this whole thing is that sometimes less than stellar regular season teams get into the playoffs and it’s a completely new season. They started out with a home win over the overrated Colts, but after back-to-back road wins in Denver and New England as underdog of more than a touchdown, they’re clearly a much improved team.

Ray Lewis’ return obviously has a lot to do with that. Lewis himself isn’t even playing that well. Sure, he leads the post-season with 44 tackles in 3 games, which sounds like he’s playing well, but when you consider that just 9 of those tackles have gone for a “stop,” it’s not so impressive (a stop is defined as a tackle within 4 yards of the line of scrimmage on 1st down, 6 yards on 2nd down, and the full distance on 3rd or 4th). He’s also had significant issues in coverage, allowing 15 catches on 19 attempts for 178 yards.

However, it’s Lewis’ intangible effect. He’s the signal caller and the emotional leader. That’s why this defense is playing so well. 12th in the NFL in opponents’ scoring in the regular season, the Ravens have allowed 43 points (excluding 2 special teams touchdowns) in 3 games, despite facing Andrew Luck, Tom Brady, and Peyton Manning and playing a double overtime game. Their forcing turnovers and tightening up in the red zone and they just made Tom Brady look as confused on a football field as I’ve seen him in years. Their defense is playing better than the 49ers’ right now.

But it hasn’t just been a defensive effort. They wouldn’t have gotten this far if it was. They’ve had good defenses before, but they still lost twice in the AFC Championship from 2008-2011. The limiting factor in those years was Joe Flacco. Despite going 5-4 in the post-season in his first 4 seasons in the league, breaking several NFL records, Joe Flacco never really had played well. It was always the defense. Coming into this post-season, Flacco had completed 134 of 247 (54.2%) for 1532 yards (6.2 YPA), 8 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions in his post-season career and had just 2 games of 200+ yards passing. He has 3 already this year and has completed 51 of 93 (54.8%) for 853 yards (9.2 YPA), 8 touchdowns, and not a single interception.

Already I mentioned the thing about Pro-Bowls and Super Bowls. Joe Flacco has never made a Pro-Bowl and he has never deserved to make a Pro-Bowl, but none of that matters because right now he is playing like a Pro-Bowl quarterback. Lots of credit should be given to Joe Flacco, but lots of credit also has to be given to new offensive coordinator Jim Caldwell, who is calling plays at the NFL level for the first time in his life, and credit has to be given to the Ravens for making the switch at offensive coordinator and canning Cam Cameron. That might have been the turning point of their season.

While the 49ers made a ballsy move to bench Alex Smith, the Ravens did a similar thing at offensive coordinator and like the Smith/Kaepernick switch, it’s a big part of the reason why they’re here. We have a Super Bowl matchup between a team that has benched their starting quarterback and a team that has fired their offensive coordinator this season. Normally those are white flags. These two teams are here because of those moves.

If they were playing like they were 4 weeks ago, the Ravens wouldn’t have a chance against the 49ers on a neutral field. However, the Ravens have become a very complete team and dangerous team in the post-season and, for that reason, they will be able to compete with the 49ers, who are the NFL’s most complete team in general. I’ll have an actual pick closer to the game.

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Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots: AFC Conference Championship

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Playoffs 3 NFL Picks, Patriots, Ravens

I’ve gone back and forth on this one. On one hand, some of the reasons I didn’t like the Patriots last week are still true. They’re still a terrible post-season spread team, going 2-7 ATS in their last 9 post-season games and 4-8 ATS all-time as favorites of more than 4 in the post-season. Last year, they were favored by a similar amount in a similar situation here against Baltimore and they failed to cover.

These two teams always play close. They’ve met 6 times since 2007 and only one game was decided by more than 6 points and that was in the Ravens’ favor. The Ravens have endured 4 losses by exactly a field goal to the Patriots in that time period, while the Patriots lost by 1 earlier this year. Joe Flacco matches up perfectly with a New England secondary that can’t defend the deep pass as Flacco goes deep more than any quarterback in the NFL. The Patriots also may be overconfident after scoring so many points last week. Teams are 3-14 ATS since 2002 off a post-season game in which they score 38 or more, though the Ravens did the same thing last week, albeit in less convincing fashion.

On the other hand, Joe Flacco has put together two straight good post-season games, but he’s incredibly inconsistent and might not be able to come through a 3rd time. He’s actually 7-4 in the post-season in his career, but he only completes about 53% of his passes as he’s always relied on a strong defense until this year. This year, he doesn’t have a strong defense, but he’s stepped up. He’ll have to do it again this week if the Ravens are going to compete. Tom Brady will get his and if Flacco doesn’t play well, they won’t have much of a chance. Flacco generally struggles on the road, where he’s just 4-6 SU (4-6 ATS) in his career off a road win.

They may also be exhausted after last week’s double overtime marathon. Teams are just 1-7 since 2002 on normal rest in the post-season off an overtime game when their opponent is not coming off an overtime game. Meanwhile, the Patriots play very well in same-season revenge games, going 11-3 ATS in this spot under Bill Belichick, though 9-0 ATS in the regular season inside their crappy division and just 2-3 ATS in the post-season.

Finally, the Ravens are a publicly backed underdog. Publicly backed underdogs rarely cover because it creates a slighted favorite. The Patriots might not be getting their true respect this week and have plenty of bulletin board material. Besides, something fishy may be going on with publicly backed teams this post-season, as both the Broncos and Patriots had several borderline calls go against them last week. The odds makers didn’t do as well as they normally do this season, so a conspiracy theorist might say they are trying to make up for it this post-season.

At the end of the day, I’m taking the Patriots. You’ve heard the old adage, when in doubt, take the points. In the post-season, I prefer, when in doubt, take the better quarterback. I especially like that when it means fading a publicly backed underdog. I’m definitely not confident about this one though. I’m just looking forward to a great game.

New England Patriots 31 Baltimore Ravens 20

Pick against spread: New England -8 (-110) 1 unit

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Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos: Divisional Round Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Playoffs 2 NFL Picks, Broncos, Ravens

Both the Patriots and Broncos are both around 9.5 point favorites against the Texans and Ravens respectively. Both teams blew out their current opponent late in the same season. I took the points with the Texans because I thought the line was too big, but I’m not going to do the same thing here for several reasons. The Texans and Patriots play a same site rematch. Non-divisional teams are 26-12 ATS in a same site revenge game since 1989, but 14-20 ATS when the site is different.

Plus, unlike when the Texans and Patriots played the first time, it wasn’t a complete blowout. It might sound counterintuitive, but the bigger the regular season blowout, the more likely a team covers in the rematch, especially in the playoffs. This is because it creates an added motivational edge for the team who got blown and it typically skews the line heavily in favor of the favorite based off just one game.

Going off that, I don’t think the Texans’ play in New England was indicative of the type of team they are. They just had a very bad game. The Ravens, meanwhile, were just as bad as they looked in a 34-17 home loss to the Broncos. They went 10-6 and could have easily gone 8-8 if not for Ben Roethlisberger’s injury (or even Byron Leftwich’s injury) and Ray Rice’s ridiculous 4th and 29 conversion. They had a ridiculous 5 wins by 3 or fewer points. They only outgained opponents by 25 yards this season and, coming into the playoffs, they hadn’t beaten a single playoff team since losing Lardarius Webb early in the season (0-4).

Last week, Ray Lewis returned and they beat Indianapolis, but what Lewis adds to this team at this point in his career is mostly intangible (the Ravens still struggles against the run last week) and Indianapolis was the worst team in the playoffs, with just 3 wins against teams with a .500 or better record and two wins by more than a touchdown. And Indianapolis was still only outgained by 20.

Now they have to go to Denver and play a significantly better team than them who beat them by 17 in a result that should have surprised no one (that’s the difference, the Houston blowout loss was a surprise at the time because they’re a better team than Baltimore). And that was in Baltimore. Now they have to go to Denver and play in the high altitude, where the Broncos lost just once this season.

The Ravens aren’t a very good road team anyway. Despite outscoring teams by an average of 10.9 points per game at home over the last 2 seasons, they are being outscored by -0.7 points per game on the road. Joe Flacco’s statistics are the most noticeable difference. Over the last 2 seasons, he’s completed 59.5% of his passes for an average of 8.0 YPA, 29 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions at home. On the road, he’s completed 57.4% of his passes for an average of 6.2 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. As a result, they average 28.7 points per game at home and 19.0 per game on the road during that time period.

I think Denver is a little overrated. People like to completely dismiss their first 5 games because Peyton Manning was still getting into form, which makes some sense, but if you do that, they’ve only played two .500 teams all season. I don’t think they’re the Super Bowl favorite and I question how they’ll match up with someone like the Patriots or an NFC team in the Super Bowl. However, they should be able to get a blowout here. During their 11 game winning streak, none of the games were really even close and as easy as the schedule was, Baltimore isn’t much better. They’re also overrated and were blown out at home against the Broncos earlier this year. Denver is the pick, however obvious it might seem.

Denver Broncos 31 Baltimore Ravens 17

Pick against spread: Denver -9.5 (-110) 2 units

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens: Wild Card Round Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Playoffs 1 NFL Picks, Colts, Ravens

For analysis on Indianapolis click here
For analysis on Baltimore click here

The public is all over the dog on this one and it’s not just the public. I can’t tell you how many media people I’ve seen make the Colts their upset pick. If there’s one thing I’ve learned, whenever everyone is predicting the same upset, it rarely upsets and it’s always good to bet on a slighted favorite. The Colts are overrated as they have just 3 wins against .500 or better teams and 2 total wins by more than a touchdown.

They’re even worse on the road where they are 4-4, including 4 double digit losses and 3 by 20 or more. I think they get their 5th double digit loss here in Baltimore against a very good Ravens team at home. They’re just 2 losses removed from a 16 game home winning streak. The only reason this isn’t a bigger play because, of those 16 wins, 9 have come by a touchdown or less. I really like having to only lay 7 with the Ravens rather than the 9 I would have earlier in the week. All the action on Indianapolis has really brought the line down. It’s at 6.5 in some places.

Baltimore Ravens 31 Indianapolis Colts 17

Pick against spread: Baltimore -7 (-110) 3 units

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Baltimore Ravens: Wild Card Round Power Rankings (#9)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Playoffs 1 Power Rankings, Ravens

The Ravens defense was destroyed by injuries this year and as a result more has fallen on the offense than ever before. They’ve responded well. Joe Flacco statistically doesn’t seem to be having a year any different than any of his other seasons, but he’s led the Ravens to a career high 24.8 points per game despite getting average seasons from Ray Rice and the rest of his supporting cast (thanks to a career high red zone touchdown percentage).

Still, that’s not enough for this team to go deep into the playoffs. They were deserving AFC North champions more because of their offense than their defense, but they are exactly as good as their 10-6 record suggests. They started the year 9-2, but they weren’t as good as that record suggested. 6 of those wins came by 7 or fewer points, including 5 by 3 or fewer points. They proved that by finishing 1-4 in their final 5 games and I think their record has regressed to show exactly the type of team this is, good, but not great and injuries on defense are a big part of that.

They get their biggest name injured player back for the playoffs, Ray Lewis. That will help them, but not as much as they need. Their best defensive player, Lardarius Webb, has missed most of the season with a torn ACL, while Terrell Suggs, Ed Reed, and Haloti Ngata have all dealt with injuries of their own and have not played at their normal levels. Lewis, meanwhile, showed major signs of slowing down to age 37 before getting tearing his biceps and I can’t imagine coming back this quickly from a major injury like that will help him get things turned back around. His best days are behind him and his biggest value to this team is as a leader and his intangibles (which can’t be overlooked, but still).

One other thing that can’t be overlooked for the Ravens, if they beat an overrated Colts team in the 1st round of the playoffs (I think they will), they’ll have to win their next two on the road to advance to the Super Bowl, unless Cincinnati somehow sneaks through. I don’t doubt that the Ravens can hand the Colts their 5th double digit road loss of the season, but winning in Denver or New England is a different story.

Joe Flacco has always been noticeably better at home than on the road, but this year he’s taken it to another level. At home, he completes 62.2% of his passes for an average of 8.4 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, while on the road, he completes 56.9% of his passes for an average of 5.9 YPA, 7 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. At home, his quarterback rating (99.0) compares to Tom Brady and Matt Ryan. On the road (74.9), it compares to Ryan Tannehill’s and Jake Locker’s.

Obviously, I think the Ravens would prefer to face the Broncos than the Patriots in the divisional round right now, as they beat the Patriots earlier this season and the Broncos blew them out at home. However, that win over the Patriots came in Baltimore and when they were still healthy. I don’t think they could win in either Denver or New England.

Projected fate: Lose to Denver in divisional round

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Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals: Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 17 NFL Picks, Bengals, Ravens

Baltimore Ravens (10-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (9-6)

In spite of that big win in Pittsburgh last week, Andy Dalton and these Bengals still have a lack of success against playoff teams over the past two years. After going 0-8 against playoff teams last year, they’ve had very limited action against playoff teams this year. They have played 3 games against Pittsburgh and the Giants, but neither of those two teams is likely playoff bound.

These Ravens, who blew them out 44-13 week 1, are. The Broncos, who beat them earlier this year, are. The Bengals did beat the Redskins in Washington earlier this year in a game in which Washington left tackle Trent Williams got hurt and that’s the closest thing they have to a win over a playoff team (if Dallas qualifies over them, they won’t have a single one).

In those 12 games (8 last year and Baltimore, Denver, Washington, and Dallas this year), Dalton is a combined 256 of 448 (57.1%) for 3013 yards (6.7 YPA), 13 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. In the other 18 games, he’s 390 of 631 (61.8%) for 4234 yards (6.7 YPA), 33 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions. Even against Pittsburgh (in both games against them), he didn’t play well.

Cincinnati is talented enough on both the offensive and defensive lines to beat teams like the Steelers and Giants despite Andy Dalton’s struggles against those types of teams, but I don’t think that will be enough here. Given that, I’m grabbing the points with the team for whom this game means more too (Cincinnati is locked into the 6th seed, while Baltimore has a chance to move up to #3).

Public lean: Baltimore (50% range)

Baltimore Ravens 24 Cincinnati Bengals 20 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: Baltimore +2.5 (-110) 2 units

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Baltimore Ravens: Week 17 NFL Power Rankings (#8)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 17 NFL Power Rankings, Ravens

Last week: 8 (+0)

Record: 10-5

Net points per drive: 0.31 (10th)

DVOA: 11.1% (8th)

Weighted DVOA: 9.5% (10th)

Studs

QB Joe Flacco: 25 of 36 for 318 yards and 2 touchdowns, 1 throw away, 1 hit as thrown, 1 drop, 100.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 14 of 36 drop backs (11 of 14, 2 touchdowns, 1 throw away, 1 hit as thrown)

RB Ray Rice: Rushed for 107 yards (63 after contact) on 24 attempts, 1 broken tackle, caught 6 passes for 51 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 9 pass block snaps

RB Bernard Pierce: Rushed for 123 yards (64 after contact) on 14 attempts, 2 broken tackles

WR Anquan Boldin: Caught 7 passes for 93 yards on 7 attempts on 33 pass snaps, 4.6 YAC per catch, 1 penalty

TE Dennis Pitta: Caught 4 passes for 56 yards on 5 attempts on 25 pass snaps, 4.5 YAC per catch

CB Chykie Brown: Allowed 2 catches for 27 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts, 3 pass deflections, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

CB Corey Graham: Allowed 2 catches for 14 yards on 3 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

LOLB Paul Kruger: 1 quarterback hit and 4 quarterback hurries on 21 pass rush snaps

MLB Brendon Ayanbadejo: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 9 blitzes, allowed 1 catch for 3 yards on 1 attempt, 1 assist, 1 stop

RE Arthur Jones: 2 quarterback hits and 1 quarterback hurry on 10 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

LE Haloti Ngata: 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 26 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 3 stops

Duds

LT Michael Oher: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 39 pass block snaps, run blocked for 2 yards on 3 attempts, 3 penalties

WR Jacoby Jones: Caught 1 pass for 7 yards on 3 attempts on 25 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch

ROLB Terrell Suggs: Did not record a pressure on 25 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

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New York Giants at Baltimore Ravens: Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 16 NFL Picks, Giants, Ravens

New York Giants (8-6) at Baltimore Ravens (9-5)

The Giants stunk it up last week in Atlanta, getting shut out, losing 34-0. I generally like taking teams off a blowout loss. Teams in this situation tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed. The most recent case of this was the Cardinals’ blowing out the Lions as huge home dogs last week after that 52-0 loss in Arizona the week before. I was especially looking forward to doing this with the Giants, a team that tends to have their best games when nobody believes in them.

However, I only like doing this when the team is a dog. Here as a favorite, it’s a different dynamic for the Giants. They’re supposed to bounce back and win. They’re not going to be overlooked and they certainly aren’t undervalued, especially as publicly backed favorites and anyone who reads these picks frequently knows I love to fade the public because they always lose money in the long run.

I really wish that the Giants were dogs here. Not only do they always thrive when people doubt them and not only do dogs tend to cover off a blowout loss, but road dogs off a road loss also tend to cover, going 86-51 ATS since 2008. However, with Baltimore in freefall after their 3rd straight loss, that couldn’t happen here. This line opened at even and now it’s moved to the point where the Giants are actually favored by 2.5 and not just favored, but heavily publicly backed favorites.

Given that, I actually like the Ravens here a little bit, albeit in a game that’s a bit of a tossup for me. Not only do I love to fade the public, as the public always loses money in the long run, but the Giants frequently fall flat when they’re expected to win and with the Ravens in freefall even more than they are, that’s the case here. Instead, it’s the Ravens who are the doubted ones and I like their chances of avoiding their first 4-game losing streak in the Joe Flacco/John Harbaugh era. Harbaugh is 6-1 ATS off of a double digit loss.

Besides, every year in the Tom Coughlin era, the Giants have a 2nd half slide. Since he took over in 2004, they are 53-19 in the first 8 games of the season and 29-41 in the second 8 games of the season. This year has been no different as they started 6-2, but thanks to a 2-4 stretch, they are now 8-6, not bad, but not as good as it once looked.

It’s not all Eli Manning’s fault, but there is a noticeable dip in his 2nd half production as compared to his 1st half production. He completes 57% of his passes for an average of 6.7 YPA and 94 touchdowns to 83 interceptions in the 2nd half, as opposed to 60% of his passes for an average of 7.4 YPA and 111 touchdowns to 61 interceptions in the first half.

Net points per drive also says this game is a bit of a tossup and that we’re getting line value with the Ravens now for that reason. The Ravens are 11th in net points per drive at 0.21, while the Giants rank 8th at 0.42. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game per team), and add 2.5 points for home field, you get that this line should be a true pick em. DVOA supports this as the Giants rank 7th in regular DVOA and 8th in weighted, while the Ravens rank 10th and 13th respectively.

It’s definitely not a huge play, but I like the Ravens more than I like the Giants this week, though I’d rather have the Ravens +120 on the money line than anything spread wise because this game is a real tossup. On one hand, the Giants frequently collapse in the 2nd half and frequently struggle in games they’re supposed to win, while the Ravens are the doubted ones attempting to avoid their first 4 game losing streak in 5 seasons.

On the other hand, the Giants do well on the road under Tom Coughlin (50-28 ATS, including 24-16 ATS in the 2nd half of the season). This is also a bigger game for the Giants than the Ravens, as they are fighting for the playoffs and I do like Eli Manning in big games. The Ravens clinch the division before this game even starts if the Steelers beat the Bengals, which I think will happen, though I do expect them to still give 100% with a huge need for momentum before the playoffs. Obviously, you don’t want to go into the playoffs on a 5 game losing streak. There was also a point when the Ravens won 16 straight at home, though they’ve now lost 2 straight and that 16 game stretch featured few blowouts and a weak schedule. Rank this one near the bottom in confidence pools, but the Ravens are the pick.

Public lean: NY Giants (80% range)

Sharps lean: NYG 24 BAL 6

Final thoughts: I’m still uncertain. I thought about switching my uncertainty to the other side, but I still like +120 more than anything. The Giants frequently disappointed when they’re expected to win, especially in the 2nd half of the season.

Baltimore Ravens 24 New York Giants 23 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: Baltimore +2.5 (-110) 0 units

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Denver Broncos: Week 16 NFL Power Rankings (#5)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, Ravens

Last week: 5 (+0)

Record: 11-3

Net points per drive: 0.67 (5th)

DVOA: 37.2% (3rd)

Weighted DVOA: 39.5% (3rd)

The NFC is the much deeper conference, but I think the AFC has more top level talent as they have 3 of the top-5 top tier teams. The Broncos are in 5th, 3rd out of the 3 top AFC teams, because they’ve lost to both of the other two. The Texans have split and the Patriots have beaten both (and still will have to go on the road in a rematch against both because they managed to go 1-3 against the NFC West).

Yes, I am aware those games were in weeks 2 and 5 and that the Broncos have ripped off an NFL best 9 game winning streak since, but against whom? Only Cincinnati and Baltimore even have a winning record among those 9. They could win the whole thing, but I wouldn’t bet on them to win a rematch against New England, let alone a rematch against Houston in the AFC Championship, if they manage to get that far.

Studs

RB Knowshon Moreno: Rushed for 115 yards (50 after contact) and a touchdown on 21 attempts, 1 broken tackle, caught 2 passes for 8 yards on 2 attempts

C Dan Koppen: Did not allow a pressure on 30 pass block snaps, run blocked for 55 yards and a touchdown on 11 attempts

WR Eric Decker: Caught 8 passes for 133 yards and a touchdown on 11 attempts, 1.6 YAC per catch

LOLB Wesley Woodyard: Allowed 2 catches for 8 yards on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops

CB Champ Bailey: Allowed 4 catches for 40 yards on 6 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 7 solo tackles, 5 stops

CB Chris Harris: Allowed 1 catch for 13 yards on 5 attempts, 1 interception, 1 solo tackle

RE Robert Ayers: 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 1 quarterback hurry on 16 pass rush snaps, 1 stop

ROLB Von Miller: 3 quarterback hits and 5 quarterback hurries on 37 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

RE Elvis Dumervil: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 4 quarterback hurries on 42 pass snaps, 1 stop

Duds

WR Demaryius Thomas: Caught 4 passes for 13 yards on 9 attempts on 30 pass snaps, 1.5 YAC per catch, 1 drop

SS Mike Adams: Allowed 3 catches for 50 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hit on 2 blitzes

FS Rahim Moore: Allowed 1 catch for 9 yards on 1 attempt, 2 solo tackles, 2 missed tackles

WR Trindon Holliday: 2 kickoff returns for 20 yards, 1 fumble, 5 punt returns for 33 yards

RB Ronnie Hillman: 32 yards (20 after contact) on 15 attempts, 1 broken tackle, allowed 1 sack on 1 pass block snap

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