Ravens

Baltimore Ravens: Week 16 NFL Power Rankings (#8)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, Ravens

Last week: 7 (-1)

Record: 9-5

Net points per drive: 0.21 (11th)

DVOA: 9.2% (10th)

Weighted DVOA: 3.3% (13th)

The Ravens could easily lose their final 2 games and go into the playoffs on a 5 game losing streak and 9-7 as either a wild card or a weak division champion, depending on what happens in Pittsburgh/Cincinnati next week (though the Ravens did back into a playoff spot last week, assure that all 4 of last year’s first round bye teams will make the playoffs for the first time in at least a decade). In fact, if lines hold, they’ll be dogs in both of their final 2 games.

However, I think they win both because of the Giants’ tendency to lose when they’re expected to win late in the season and the Bengals general struggles with playoff caliber teams. It is worth noting, however, that the Ravens could easily be 7-7 right now if not for Ben Roethlisberger injury (or even Byron Leftwich’s injury) and Ray Rice’s 4th and 29. Their last win by more than 3 was week 10 and they have just 2 wins by more than a field goal dating back to week 5, when they barely beat the Chiefs.

On the season, they have just 3 wins by more than a field goal. I’m really not sold on a single team in the AFC outside of New England, Denver, and Houston and maybe Pittsburgh, if they even make the playoffs (and even then they’d have to go to Foxboro in the first round). The Ravens should beat the Colts in the first round of the playoffs, but I think they’d get killed on the road against any of the AFC’s top-3.

Studs

TE Dennis Pitta: Caught 7 passes for 125 yards and 2 touchdowns on 10 attempts on 45 pass snaps, 9.0 YAC per catch, 2 drops

CB Corey Graham: Allowed 1 catch for 14 yards on 2 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 5 solo tackles, 2 stops

LOLB Courtney Upshaw: 1 quarterback hurry on 5 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

LE Pernell McPhee: 1 sack and 2 quarterback hits on 8 pass rush snaps, 1 stop

Duds

RB Ray Rice: Rushed for 38 yards (19 after contact) on 12 attempts, caught 3 passes for 3 yards on 7 attempts, 1 drop

RT Kelechi Osemele: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 6 quarterback hurries on 46 pass block snaps, run blocked for 2 yards on 1 attempt

WR Anquan Boldin: Did not catch a pass on 6 attempts on 46 pass snaps, 1 interception when thrown to, 1 penalty

CB Cary Williams: Allowed 6 catches for 105 yards and a touchdown on 11 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 1 penalty, 7 solo tackles, 2 stops

NT Terrence Cody: Did not record a pressure on 14 pass rush snaps, no tackles

RE Haloti Ngata: 1 quarterback hurry on 25 pass rush snaps, 2 assists

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Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Broncos, Ravens

Denver Broncos (10-3) at Baltimore Ravens (9-4)

Before losing to the Steelers at home a few weeks ago, the Ravens had ripped off 16 straight home wins, dating back to 2010. Given that, it’s kind of weird to see them as home dogs here. It’s also kind of funny to see how far this team has fallen in the last two weeks thanks to two losses. I had been saying they weren’t as good as their record all season, but the way the public has soured on this team in just 2 weeks is a little bit of an overreaction.

It’s almost like they’ve become underrated for being overrated, that people have called them overrated so many times that we’ve forgotten they’re not a bad team. This line was Denver -1.5 a week ago and two weeks ago, they probably would have been favored. In spite of this, the public is pounding the Broncos. I love fading the public because the public always loses money in the long run.

Good teams tend to bounce back off a loss and the Ravens are no exception. In fact, on the rare occasions they’ve lost two in a row in the Joe Flacco/John Harbaugh era, they’ve almost always covered in the following game. That’s happened just 4 times since the start of the 2008 season and they’ve covered in the following game at a record of 3-1 ATS. It’s obviously a very small sample size, but it’s important to note that this team has only twice lost 3 in a row since 2008 and never since weeks 4-6 of the 2009 season.

They’re also in a good spot as dogs before being favorites as they are expected to be favored when the Giants come to town next week. Teams are 105-62 ATS in this spot over the last 2 seasons, including 17-6 ATS as home dogs before being home favorites. That being said, when we go back to 2002 to get a larger sample size, teams are just 52-47 ATS as home dogs before being home favorites, which isn’t significant at all. There’s also a decent chance that, depending on what happens this week, they will actually be home dogs next week for a good Giants team. The early lines have them as favorites, but that might not hold up. While home dogs tend to cover before being home favorites, they are just 31-46 ATS since 2008 before being home dogs again.

That’s kind of a theme for this game, uncertainty. I don’t really have a strong feel for this game as a result. The Ravens did win 16 in a row at home at one point, but they weren’t exactly blowing teams out and they weren’t exactly playing a tough schedule. This is demonstrated by the fact that the Ravens were just 7-8-1 ATS in those 16 games and they never once were home dogs like they are here.

They’re also in a very bad spot here off of a road overtime loss. If you exclude road dogs (because road dogs tend to cover off a road loss, in general), teams are 21-46 ATS off a road overtime loss since 2002, including 8-14 ATS as home dogs, as the Ravens are here. We are getting a tiny bit of line value with the Broncos, as the real line based off net points per drive is Denver -1, which holds up to DVOA. However, that’s pretty insignificant. I don’t have a real feel for this game, but gun to my head, the Broncos should be the right side, as long as the line doesn’t go above 3. If we get more than a field goal with the Ravens, I might have to take them. That’s how close this is. Put this last in any confidence pools.

Public lean: Denver (70% range)

Denver Broncos 27 Baltimore Ravens 23

Pick against spread: Denver -3 (-110) 1 unit

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Baltimore Ravens: Week 15 NFL Power Rankings (#7)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 15 NFL Power Rankings, Ravens

Last week: 9 (+2)

Record: 9-4

Net points per drive: 0.31 (10th)

DVOA: 12.0% (9th)

Weighted DVOA: 9.8% (10th)

With the Ravens losing to the Redskins, the Bengals and Steelers had great opportunities to move within a game in the division, but both blew them and right now it looks like Baltimore is going to be locked into the division lead, which means they’ll get a home playoff game and they are awfully tough at home. They face the Broncos in what could decide the #3 seed this week, before hosting the Giants and the Bengals. The schedule isn’t easy, which is why it’s so huge that the Steelers and Bengals lost. I think the team they least want to see in the first round is the Steelers, who already won in Baltimore with their backup quarterback, but they should get at least 1 playoff win. I don’t know if they can go on the road and win in either New England or Houston though.

Studs

RB Ray Rice: Rushed for 121 yards (64 after contact) and a touchdown on 20 attempts, 4 broken tackles, caught 3 passes for 15 yards on 4 attempts, 1 interception when thrown to

CB Cary Williams: Allowed 1 catch for 14 yards on 5 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 4 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops

LOLB Paul Kruger: 2 sacks and 7 quarterback hurries on 34 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 assists, 3 stops, 2 missed tackles

LE Haloti Ngata: 2 quarterback hits and 6 quarterback hurries on 33 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 2 missed tackles

LE Arthur Jones: 2 solo tackles, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 19 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

RE Pernell McPhee: 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 20 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

Duds

LT Michael Oher: Allowed 2 sacks and 1 quarterback hit on 25 pass block snaps, run blocked for 8 yards on 2 attempts

MLB Josh Bynes: 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 2 missed tackles, allowed 4 catches for 66 yards on 4 attempts

MLB Jameel McClain: 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle, 1 penalty, allowed 3 catches for 54 yards on 3 attempts

FS Ed Reed: Allowed 2 catches for 26 yards and a touchdown on 2 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 missed tackles, 1 penalty, 1 quarterback hurry on 1 blitz

SS Bernard Pollard: Allowed 1 catch for 15 yards on 1 attempt, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

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Baltimore Ravens at Washington Redskins: Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 14 NFL Picks, Commanders, Ravens

Baltimore Ravens (9-3) at Washington Redskins (6-6)

Every once in a while, I like to look ahead and see which games I think I’ll take for big plays and upset picks. Last week, I looked at this one and I really expected to take the Redskins for a big play. The Ravens struggle as non-divisional road favorites and would have been looking forward to a much bigger game against Denver the following week. Teams generally struggle off a win against the Steelers as well. The Redskins would have been totally focused as dogs before being favorites and I felt the Ravens were generally overrated.

Well, a lot has changed in the last week. The Redskins pulled off the home upset against the Giants, which isn’t particularly shocking. After all, I predicted as much last week. However, what was shocking was the Ravens losing at home to the Steelers. I picked the Steelers +8.5 for a pick of the week because those two teams always play close and Charlie Batch wasn’t nearly as bad as people thought he was, but I never gave the Charlie Batch led Steelers a chance to win in Baltimore, where the Ravens had ripped off 16 straight wins.

That Baltimore loss changed things. The first thing it changed was the line. The Ravens are actually now dogs here, rather than favorites. Not only is that a huge line movement (which I generally like to fade because I hate putting too much stock into one week), but it changes up the dynamic of the game and the associated trends, which is the second thing it really changed. The Ravens aren’t coming off a win against the Steelers like I thought they would be. They aren’t non-divisional road favorites. And now that the Redskins look like a scary team, I don’t know if they’ll look past this game, even with a huge conference matchup up next against Denver.

First, about the line movement: I’ve called the Ravens overrated all season, but they might actually be underrated right now. I’m actually kind of shocked that they are 2.5 point dogs here. The Ravens rank 9th in net points per drive at 0.35, which is worse than their 9-3 record would suggest, as a result of their lack of blowout wins (a ridiculous 5 of their 9 wins have come by 3 points or fewer), but better than the Redskins, who rank 16th at -0.04.

If we take the difference and multiply by 11 and push the line 3 points in Washington’s direction for home field, we get that the Ravens should still be road favorites here of about 1.5 points. Of course, DVOA does point a slightly different picture. Baltimore ranks 9th in DVOA and Washington ranks 11th, but Baltimore does rank 10th in weighted DVOA and Washington remains at 11th. Given that, this line does make some more sense. That’s basically a theme of this game: a cloudy picture.

Injuries will play a factor. Washington is playing better lately thanks to the return of Pierre Garcon at wide receiver, which has actually given Robert Griffin a proven downfield receiver, something he lacked for most of the season (which makes what he’s doing this year even more impressive). On Baltimore’s side, Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb obviously remain out, but Terrell Suggs, who returned right when they left to help make up for their absence somewhat, is questionable with a torn biceps.

It’s not often that someone is questionable after tearing their biceps, something that would have ended most players’ seasons, but this is the same guy who returned from a torn Achilles in 5 months and played at a high level. He and Adrian Peterson are freaks of nature that injuries just don’t affect same way as most players. Suggs expects to play, but it’s fair to wonder if he’ll be limited. If he is, it could really hurt Baltimore’s overrated defense, which was already going to have issues stopping Robert Griffin and this pistol offense.

The trends seem to paint a cloudy picture as well. John Harbaugh is 5-3 ATS off a loss as favorites, including 2-0 ATS as dogs off a loss as favorites. That is a very limited sample size, but I generally like to take elite Head Coaches as dogs off a loss as favorites and I feel Harbaugh is one. This team will have a chip on their shoulder. Besides, teams are 16-8 ATS as dogs off a close divisional loss as touchdown favorites since 1989, including 11-3 ATS in a non-divisional contest. Meanwhile, teams are 3-13 ATS as home favorites after a win as home dogs since 2008 and teams are 7-22 ATS as favorites off a close home win as divisional dogs since 1989. That all makes sense. The Redskins might be overconfident off a huge home upset win and the Ravens are the ones with the chip on their shoulder now.

However, some trends contradict that. Road dogs are 23-42 ATS off a loss as favorites before being home dogs. The Ravens are expected to be home dogs against Denver next week. In a way, the Ravens’ loss last week actually made next week’s game against the Broncos even bigger for them so they might look past the Redskins a little bit because that game next week will matter more playoff seeding wise because it’s a potential tiebreaker. Meanwhile, on the Washington side, home favorites are 68-35 ATS before being road favorites in two straight. The Redskins have the Browns and Eagles in their next 2 weeks. This is their only hard game for a while and probably their toughest remaining opponent. That could help make sure they’re focused.

I’m taking the Redskins for a very small play for two reasons. The first is that history suggests they’ll make the playoffs. There have been 5 new playoff teams in each of the last 17 seasons. Right now, 7 incumbent playoff teams are locked into the 12 playoff spots. The Redskins need to win the NFC East and knock the Giants out and someone needs to knock the Packers out (admittedly the former is much more likely).

The Redskins could definitely win the NFC East though. They are 6-6 and will be favored in their next 4 games. If they win out, the only way the Giants can win the division is if they too win out and their schedule is much tougher as they will be dogs in 2 of 4 games. Even if the Redskins go 3-1 in their final 4, the Giants will need to also do that, which would mean beating two of the Saints, Ravens (in Baltimore, where the Ravens are much tougher, more on that later), and the Falcons (in Atlanta). The Redskins should actually be the favorites in the NFC East right now (which they aren’t) and a win here would go a long way towards helping that happen.

The 2nd reason is what I just mentioned: The Ravens home/road disparity. It doesn’t seem to be as big of a deal when they are road dogs, but that’s a much smaller sample size. Over the past 3 seasons, they’ve ripped off a 16 game home winning streak, going 21-2 at home overall, but they are just 14-11 on the road. Their average home game is a 27-17 win and on the road their average game is a 20-18 loss.

Joe Flacco seems to be a completely different quarterback on the road as well. You can see that above as the defense seems to be consistent home and away, but it’s the offense that struggles. At home, Flacco completes 60.7% of his passes for an average of 8.0 YPA, 36 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. On the road, he completes 59.1% of his passes for an average of 6.3 YPA, 31 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions. I think Griffin is going to get his and it’ll be up to Flacco to keep up and I don’t know if he quite can, even though Washington’s defense has plenty of holes. I don’t have a great feel for this one though.

Public lean: Washington (50% range)

Sharps lean: BAL 17 WAS 11

Final thoughts: Terrell Suggs is out for the Ravens, which is a big deal, but I don’t have a good enough feel for this game to trust this pick.

Washington Redskins 27 Baltimore Ravens 24

Pick against spread: Washington -2.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Baltimore Ravens: Week 14 NFL Power Rankings (#9)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 14 NFL Power Rankings, Ravens

Last week: 7 (-2)

Record: 9-3

Net points per drive: 0.35 (9th)

DVOA: 12.6% (9th)

Weighted DVOA: 9.6% (10th)

Studs

LG Jah Reid: 1 quarterback hurry on 40 pass block snaps

RG Marshal Yanda: 1 quarterback hurry on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for 27 yards on 5 attempts

RT Kelechi Osemele: Did not allow a pressure on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for 47 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts

FB Vonta Leach: Caught 4 passes for 40 yards on 4 attempts, run blocked for 12 yards on 3 attempts, 1 penalty

SS Bernard Pollard: Allowed 1 catch for 1 yard on 2 attempts, 6 solo tackles, 2 stops, 2 missed tackles

ROLB Paul Kruger: 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 1 quarterback hurry on 22 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 1 stop

RE Arthur Jones: 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 1 quarterback hurry on 18 pass rush snaps, 1 assist, 1 stop

P Sam Koch: 5 punts for 253 yards, 2 inside 20, 5 returns for 9 yards

Duds

WR Torrey Smith: Caught 3 passes for 33 yards on 8 attempts on 39 pass snaps, 1.3 YAC per catch, 1 drop

MLB Jameel McClain: 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 2 missed tackles, allowed 3 catches for 36 yards on 3 attempts

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens: Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 13 NFL Picks, Ravens, Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5) at Baltimore Ravens (9-2)

2 weeks ago, the Steelers were riding high at 6-3, including a recent win over the Giants in New York and looked like they had a chance to take control of the division with a win at home against the then 7-2 Baltimore Ravens. However, Ben Roethlisberger got hurt late against Kansas City and has been unable to play in each of their last 2 games, both Pittsburgh losses.

Now they head into Baltimore once again without Roethlisberger and the Ravens, with a win, have a chance to take a 4 game lead on the division, holding the tiebreaker, with 4 games to go, which would eliminate the Steelers from contention in the division. Not many people are giving them much chance to win here as the line is Baltimore -8.5 and the public is still on Baltimore. I’m not giving them much chance to win either, but I really like getting 8.5 points with the Steelers, especially since the public is on Baltimore. The public loses in the long run always, so I fade them as much as I can.

Since Ben Roethlisberger took over as the Steelers’ quarterback full time in week 3 of the 2004 season, he’s missed 15 games with injury, with this being his 16th. You might not expect it, but they are actually 10-5 ATS without him (including 5-3 ATS when Charlie Batch starts) in those 5 games and while they are 0-5 straight up against the Ravens, they have not lost a single one of those games by more than 6 points. In fact, they haven’t lost a single game without Roethlisberger by more than 6 points.

This is because this team is so much more than Roethlisberger and it always has been. However, with him out, teams tend to overlook them and at the same time, their talented supporting cast tends to step up. You saw it against Baltimore 2 weeks ago. If it wasn’t for Byron Leftwich getting hurt and playing the whole game injured, the Steelers could have easily won that game.

Even still, they lost by just 3 and covered the 3.5 point spread for a 5-unit pick of the week for me. Their offense outscored the Ravens’ offense and they outgained them by over 100 yards, but lost because they lost the turnover margin 2-0 and because they allowed a special teams touchdown. The Steelers defense is still awesome, ranking 5th in points per game allowed and 1st in yards allowed, by over 200 yards. This week, they return Troy Polamalu from injury, which no one seems to be talking about, but over the past 3 years, they allow about 6 points per game fewer when he’s in the lineup. That matters.

Last week, they lost to the Browns in Cleveland, but the Browns are an underrated bunch who hasn’t been blown off the field by anyone. It was a classic letdown game for the Steelers, between two tough games with the Ravens, and they had a very fluky 8 turnovers. How fluky? That’s happened 13 times since 1989. That won’t happen again. Turnover differentials are incredibly inconsistent anyway. And they still only lost by 6.

The Ravens, meanwhile, aren’t really blowing anyone out. They’ve won 2 games by more than 10 points all season and only 3 of their 9 wins have come by a touchdown or more. Actually, 5 of their 9 wins have come by a field goal or less. They’ve won their last 16 at home, but they are only 7-8-1 ATS in those 16 games and less than half (7) have come by more than a touchdown, including just 2 this season. 2 of their 5 home wins have come by a field goal or less and another one against Cleveland went down to the final play. Meanwhile, in the last 3 seasons, they’re just 4-9 ATS as touchdown home favorites. They’re winning games, but not blowing people out. I don’t think they’ll blow out the Steelers, who almost never get blown out, even without Roethlisberger.

These games are always close anyway. In their last 12 matchups, only 2 have been decided by more than 7 points either way and only one by double digits. If this game were in Pittsburgh with Baltimore missing Joe Flacco and the Steelers as 8.5 point favorites, I’d take the Ravens. I can’t see a game between these two being a blowout. The Ravens are overrated too. While they are 9-2, they rank just 9th in net points per drive, as well as 9th in DVOA and weighed DVOA. Yards aren’t everything, but they’re getting outgained in yards on the season. Calculating real line in this one wouldn’t make sense because of the injury situation, but just know that Baltimore is not as good as their record would suggest.

The Steelers, meanwhile, might be undervalued because of their fluky loss last week. At the very least, last week’s loss opened up a powerful trend in their favor in that they are road dogs off a road loss. Teams are 83-47 ATS in this spot since 2008. Since 2002, teams are a ridiculous 19-9 ATS in that spot when both games are divisional. It’s a big play on the Steelers. I really like this to be a close game. Once again, it’s a 5-unit pick of the week.

Public lean: Baltimore (60% range)

Sharps lean: PIT 8 BAL 4

Final update: No surprise that not a lot of people made this one of their top-5 picks of the week, because of the week long uncertainty surrounding Roethlisberger’s status. With him out and this line firmly above a touchdown, I really like the Steelers. They always play teams close without Roethlisberger. The Ravens almost always play teams close regardless. And these games are almost always close. The Steelers probably won’t win, but I’d be shocked if it was a blow out.

Baltimore Ravens 20 Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +8.5 (-110) 5 units

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Baltimore Ravens: Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#7)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Ravens

Last week: 7 (+0)

Record: 9-2

Net points per drive: 0.39 (9th)

DVOA: 13.7% (9th)

Weighted DVOA: 12.6% (9th)

Tier 2: Quasi-Contenders

Studs

RB Ray Rice: Rushed for 97 yards (65 after contact) on 22 attempts, 5 broken tackles, caught 8 passes for 67 yards on 9 attempts, 1 drop, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 10 pass block snaps

WR Torrey Smith: Caught 7 passes for 144 yards on 11 attempts on 57 pass snaps, 12.6 YAC per catch

MLB Brendon Ayanbadejo: 5 solo tackles, 4 stops, 1 quarterback hurry on 3 blitzes, allowed 3 catches for 11 yards on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection

CB Corey Graham: Allowed 3 catches for 37 yards on 5 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 quarterback hurry on 4 blitzes

FS Edward Reed: 2 solo tackles, was not thrown on

RE Arthur Jones: 2 sacks and 2 quarterback hurries on 21 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops

K Justin Tucker: 4 kickoffs, 3 touchbacks, 72.5 yards per kickoff, 19.0 opponent’s starting distance, 3/3 FG (38, 38, 43)

Duds

LG Jah Reid: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 4 quarterback hurries on 58 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 28 yards on 5 attempts

C Matt Birk: Allowed 1 sack and 3 quarterback hurries on 58 pass block snaps, run blocked for 58 yards on 13 attempts

LE Haloti Ngata: 1 quarterback hurry on 33 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 3 solo tackles, 2 stops, 3 missed tackles

ROLB Albert McClellan: Allowed 1 catch for 3 yards on 1 attempt, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 3 missed tackles

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Baltimore Ravens at San Diego Chargers: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Chargers, Ravens

Baltimore Ravens (8-2) at San Diego Chargers (4-6)

The Chargers haven’t beaten a team other than the Chiefs since week 2, when they beat the Titans, who aren’t exactly great either and then before that they beat Oakland. Why would anyone pick them to beat the Ravens? Well, that seems to be the public sentiment this week as the public is pounding Baltimore as small road favorites, but I’ll tell you why San Diego is a smart bet this week.

The first reason is pretty simple and it’s just that the public loves Baltimore. The odds makers always make money in the long run, so it’s smart to bet against public leans, especially heavy public leans. If you were to do that over the course of a season, you’d probably win money every year (the only way you wouldn’t would be the juice).This week, I think, it’s especially smart to do so because the odds makers haven’t had a good 3 weeks. They should be due for a big week.

It goes deeper than that too. This is right around the point every season when the Chargers start playing incredibly well. In his career, Philip Rivers is 31-19 ATS in week 11 or later. In the last 3 years, as mediocre as they’ve been, they’re still 10-5 ATS in week 11 or later, including a cover last week in Denver. As underdogs, as they are here, Rivers is 12-4 ATS in week 11 or later, including 3-0 ATS as home dogs. It’s rare that the Chargers have been home dogs in the Philip Rivers era, this is only the 5th time, but they are 3-1 ATS in the first 4 instances, including a late season (week 15) blowout win over these Ravens last year (34-14). More on that game later. The Chargers are also in a good spot as dogs before being favorites (they host Cincinnati next week). Teams are 96-53 ATS in this spot since 2011.

The Ravens, meanwhile, are in a bad spot. As good as they are at home (16 straight wins), they generally struggle as road favorites, going 1-5 ATS as non-divisional home favorites in the last 2 seasons. Last year, they lost to 4 non-playoff teams on the road, Tennessee, Seattle, Jacksonville, and these Chargers, in a game that was situation wise very similar to this one. I put a big play on the 6-7 Chargers against the 10-3 Ravens last year and I’m going to do it again this year. This year, they barely beat the lowly Chiefs in Kansas City. They also generally struggle on the West Coast (2-10 ATS in franchise history).

Besides, if you think about it, what’s their motivation here? They have a 2 game lead on the division after their win over Pittsburgh last week and next week they play the Steelers again. If they beat the Steelers next week, they’ll have at least a 2 game lead on the division and the tiebreaker even if they lose this game. This game means nothing. Teams, for whatever reason, tend to struggle after beating the Steelers anyway, going a ridiculous 18-40 ATS since 2002 (no other team has a trend like that). The Ravens are 3-6 ATS after beating them in that time period. They probably won’t get up for this game and will underachieve against a Chargers team that always gets hot at this time and who beat them in this exact situation last year.

The Ravens are overrated anyway. They’re only +61 in points differential and most of that came from two wins against Cincinnati and crappy Oakland. They’re 6-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less and they haven’t had a particularly tough schedule. They could have easily lost to Pittsburgh last week if Charlie Batch had stepped in for Leftwich when he got clearly hurt. They are just 9th in yards per play differential and 17th in rate of sustaining drives differential.

They allow more yards per game than they gain. Against Pittsburgh, they were outgained by over 100 yards and even against Oakland, a huge win, they got outgained. They’re doing really well with turnovers. Only New England (+20) has a better turnover differential than their +12, but that’s not sustainable and their wins have been close enough that it’s definitely something to worry about. They’re also only 4-6 ATS against the spread.

As you can imagine, we are getting some line value with the Chargers. Using the rate of sustaining drives differential method, this line should be San Diego -3 and using the yards per play differential method, this should be a pick em. Neither one says that the Ravens should be road favorites here and I agree, trends aside. With trends factored in, the Chargers seem like the clear choice, especially with the public heavy on Baltimore in a week where the odds makers need to make their money back. We might even see another 34-14 type game.

It’s a big play on the Chargers. I’m not worried at all that they’ve quit on Norv Turner. As bad of a Head Coach as he is, they have never fully quit on him and just given up on a season. Philip Rivers is a huge supporter of his Head Coach and this bunch will play hard to save his job, like they always do late in the season. They’re not getting run out of the building. The last game they played where they didn’t keep it even close was week 3. They’re still playing hard.

Instead of putting 4 units on the spread and one on the money line, I’m putting all 5 on the money line. Since 1989, there have been 414 teams who have been favorites of less than 2. Of those 414 teams, only 7 of those teams won by exactly 1 point, about 1.7%. It’s not worth the extra 15 cents for something that historically will only hurt me about 1.7% of the time.

Public lean: Baltimore (80% range)

Sharps lean: SD 14 BAL 4

Final update: Another heavy sharps lean lines up with one of my picks of the week, a very good sign.

San Diego Chargers 27 Baltimore Ravens 17 Upset Pick +105 5 units

Pick against spread: San Diego +1 (-110) 0 units

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Baltimore Ravens: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#7)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Ravens

Last week: 7 (+0)

Record: 8-2

The Ravens are 8-2, but I’m still not sold. They’re only +61 in points differential and most of that came from two wins against Cincinnati and crappy Oakland. They’re 6-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less and they haven’t had a particularly tough schedule. They could have easily lost to Pittsburgh last week if Charlie Batch had stepped in for Leftwich when he got clearly hurt. They are just 9th in yards per play differential and 17th in rate of sustaining drives differential.

They allow more yards per game than they gain. Against Pittsburgh, they were outgained by over 100 yards and even against Oakland, a huge win, they got outgained. They’re doing really well with turnovers. Only New England (+20) has a better turnover differential than their +12, but that’s not sustainable and their wins have been close enough that it’s definitely something to worry about.

Studs

RG Marshal Yanda: Did not allow a pressure on 36 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 1 attempt

CB Corey Graham: Allowed 4 catches for 63 yards on 10 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 1 interception, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle

MLB Dannell Ellerbe: 11 solo tackles, 5 stops, 1 missed tackle, allowed 4 catches for 43 yards on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection

CB Cary Williams: Did not allow a catch on 3 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 solo tackle, 1 penalty

SS Bernard Pollard: Allowed 2 catches for 4 yards on 2 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

LOLB Paul Kruger: 2 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and 5 quarterback hurries on 29 pass rush snaps, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

Duds

RB Ray Rice: Rushed for 40 yards (23 after contact) on 20 attempts, 1 fumble, caught 5 passes for 53 yards on 5 attempts

C Matt Birk: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 36 pass block snaps, run blocked for 20 yards on 9 attempts

WR Torrey Smith: Caught 1 pass for 7 yards on 6 attempts on 35 pass block snaps, 3.0 YAC per catch

NT Ma’ake Kemoeatu: Did not record a pressure on 19 pass rush snaps, 1 assist

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Baltimore Ravens: Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#7)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Ravens

Last week: 14 (+7)

Record: 7-2

This team really lucked out. They were looking shaky (even off a 35 point home win) and had 2 games against the Steelers in their next 3 weeks and looked poised to cede their division lead, but Ben Roethlisberger’s injury changes that. They’re still allowing 40 more yards per game than they gain and have only won 2 games by more than 10 points despite an easy schedule. Even in their huge win last week, they still got outgained, just the 4th time since 1989 a team has been outgained and still won by 35 or more. They’ll be a good team to fade in the first round of the playoffs, especially if a healthy Steelers team comes to town.

Studs

LT Michael Oher: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 35 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 2 attempts

TE Dennis Pitta: Caught 5 passes for 67 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts on 23 pass snaps, 7.2 YAC per catch

CB Cary Williams: Allowed 3 catches for 27 yards on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop

LOLB Paul Kruger: 2 sacks and 2 quarterback hits on 30 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 5 stops, 1 interception

K Justin Tucker: 10 kickoffs, 5 touchbacks, 71.7 yards per punt, 20.9 opponent’s average starting distance, 2/2 FG (34, 48)

P Sam Koch: 4 punts for 205 yards, 2 inside 20, 3 returns for 0 yards, 51.3 net yards per punt, rushed for 7 yards and a touchdown on 1 attempt

WR Jacoby Jones: 1 kickoff return for 105 yards and a touchdown, 3 punt returns for 36 yards, caught 2 passes for 54 yards on 3 attempts on 15 pass snaps, 10.0 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

Duds

CB Corey Graham: Allowed 5 catches for 76 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hurry on 4 blitzes

MLB Jameel McClain: Allowed 7 catches for 110 yards on 9 attempts, 7 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 quarterback hurry on 3 blitzes

CB Chykie Brown: Allowed 3 catches for 72 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 2 solo tackles

LOLB Courtney Upshaw: Did not record a pressure on 33 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 4 solo tackles, 3 stops

ROLB Terrell Suggs: Did not record a pressure on 34 pass rush snaps, 2 batted passs, 1 assist

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