Ravens

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Ravens, Steelers

Baltimore Ravens (7-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3)

Ben Roethlisberger is out for this one. How can the Steelers possibly beat the 7-2 Ravens? That’s the question that everyone seems to be asking this week and apparently no one can come up with an answer as the public is pounding Baltimore as road favorites here. However, as is often the case with the public on heavy leans, I think they’re going to be wrong. There is a simple answer to that question: they’ll beat them the same way they normally beat teams without Ben Roethlisberger.

Since he took over as starter full time during week 3 of 2004, Ben Roethlisberger has missed 13 games. The Steelers are 8-5 in those 13 games, a winning percentage of 62%. When he does play, they have a winning percentage of 70%. It’s a difference, but not a huge difference and that’s just at first glance. If we exclude overtime losses, the Steelers are 8-2 in games without Ben Roethlisberger as they’ve lost 3 of those 5 games in overtime. Going off that, none of those 5 losses has come by more than 6 points, including 3 losses that would have still covered this 3.5 point spread.

It’s true that they have lost 4 times to the Ravens without Ben Roethlisberger (why does he always miss these games?!), but by a combined 15 points, including 3 games decided by just a field goal. In the Joe Flacco era, both of the Ravens’ games against the Roethlisberger-less Steelers have been decided by 3 points, two final scores that would equal a Pittsburgh cover if they were to happen this week and these aren’t the same Ravens as they have been in the past (more on that later).

Overall without Roethlisberger, the Steelers are 9-4 ATS, including 4-0 ATS as dogs. This year’s defense might not be quite the same as their defenses have been in the past. After all, they’ve had a top-3 scoring defense in 6 of the last 8 seasons. They are missing Troy Polamalu. However, that being said, they rank 7th in opponent’s scoring and 1st in opponent’s yardage, so it’s not like their defense is playing badly. In fact, they’re playing very well. Besides, in the two seasons they did not have a top-3 defense, they still covered in both instances without Ben Roethlisberger.

It’s not just defense that’s winning them these games without Roethlisberger. The whole team seems to play better. They’re a prideful bunch and never roll over easy without Roethlisberger. Mike Tomlin (under whom they are 6-2 ATS without Roethlisberger) will have them playing for pride with everyone doubting them against a Ravens team that did beat them twice last year. They’ll definitely want revenge for those losses, in addition to wanting to shut up the critics.

Given all that, it’s ridiculous that the Steelers are +3.5 here at home. A week ago, this line was -5.5. Roethlisberger is good, but he’s certainly not worth 9 points. And even if Roethlisberger hadn’t gotten hurt and this line had stayed -5.5, I would have picked the Steelers. The rate of sustaining drives differential method gives us a real line of Pittsburgh -7 and the yards per play differential method gives us a real line of Pittsburgh -4.5 and if you average those, you do get slightly higher than -5.5. Obviously, those two formulas don’t do a ton of good in a game where one team is missing a Pro-Bowl quarterback, but at the same time, this line should not have moved 9 full points.

The reason Pittsburgh deserved to be around -5.5 or -6 with Roethlisberger is that the Ravens are overrated. Before last week, this team had not won a single game by 10 or more since week 1 and only one was decided by more than a touchdown, 2 weeks ago at Cleveland, a game in which the lowly Browns actually scored more frequently than the Ravens, but frequently imploded in field goal range and had to settle for 5 field goals. During that stretch, they’ve had two less than stellar performances against the Browns, a 3 point road win against the lowly Chiefs, a near home loss to the Cowboys, and a blowout loss in Houston. Before last week, this team hadn’t done anything remotely impressive since a 31-30 home win against the Patriots week 3.

Their defense has been destroyed by injuries and ranks 27th in yards per game allowed, while the offense ranks just 17th, producing more than 40 yards per game less than their defense allows. Because of Joe Flacco’s inconsistencies, they remain a unit that cannot be relied on weekly to win the game for them if the defense isn’t playing well.

Even in last week’s blowout win over the Ravens, they got outgained. They rank just 8th in yards per play differential and 18th in rate of sustaining drives differential. They’re pretty overrated right now and would have deserved to be dogs of 6 or so in Pittsburgh with a healthy Ben Roethlisberger on the Steelers’ side. They certainly don’t deserve to be 3.5 point favorites in Pittsburgh with the Steelers missing Roethlisberger. For reference, they were -3.5 in Cleveland two weeks ago and had trouble covering the spread. You can’t tell me the Steelers are equal to the Browns now.

Aside from that, the Steelers are in a good spot, part of why I would have taken them even had Roethlisberger not gotten hurt and had the line stayed put. Teams are 10-3 ATS after a home overtime win as double digit favorites since 1989. Meanwhile, teams are 32-24 ATS off a home win of 3 or fewer as double digit dogs. Almost losing as big favorites tends to serve as just as good of a wakeup call as actually losing. Mike Tomlin is 17-10 ATS off a loss and 25-18 ATS off a game in which the Steelers failed to cover. He’s also 5-3 ATS in divisional revenge games and, as I mentioned, the Ravens beat the Steelers twice last year.

In addition to all of those trends, two kick in now that Pittsburgh is a dog. Dogs before being favorites are 92-52 ATS since 2011. The Steelers go to Cleveland next week. Meanwhile, Mike Tomlin is 3-1 ATS as dogs against the Ravens.  I really like the Steelers this week. At the very worst, they should be able to keep this within a field goal again so getting the 3.5 is key. I have a feeling the Steelers pull out the straight up win, however. Everyone is doubting them and they’re traditionally good even without Roethlisberger. Meanwhile, the Ravens are overrated.

Public lean: Baltimore (90% range)

Sharps lean: PIT 17 BAL 6

Final update: Glad to see that the sharps agree with my pick of the week.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Baltimore Ravens 20 Upset Pick +170

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +3.5 (-110) 5 units

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Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens: Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 10 NFL Picks, Raiders, Ravens

Oakland Raiders (3-5) at Baltimore Ravens (6-2)

The Ravens may be 6-2, but dating back to week 1, this team has not won a single game by 10 or more and only one was decided by more than a touchdown, last week at Cleveland, a game in which the lowly Browns actually scored more frequently than the Ravens, but frequently imploded in field goal range and had to settle for 5 field goals. During that stretch, they’ve had two less than stellar performances against the Browns, a 3 point road win against the lowly Chiefs, a near home loss to the Cowboys, and a blowout loss in Houston. This team hasn’t done anything remotely impressive since a 31-30 home win against the Patriots week 3.

Their defense has been destroyed by injuries and ranks 26th in yards per game allowed, while the offense ranks just 19th, producing more than 40 yards per game less than their defense allows and because of Joe Flacco’s inconsistencies, they remain a unit that cannot be relied on weekly to win the game for them if the defense isn’t playing well. They rank just 9th in yards per play differential and 19th in rate of sustaining drives differential. They’re pretty overrated right now.

The Raiders aren’t very good either, but we’re getting line value with them. The yards per play differential method gives us a real line of -7, but the rate of sustaining drives method, the one Baltimore really struggles in, says this line should be -3.5 as Oakland ranks 23th, as opposed to Baltimore ranking 19th. That says these two teams are pretty even. I’m not saying they are. We have to look at both metrics to give us the whole picture, but we’re definitely getting line value with the road team here and pretty significant line value. The Ravens don’t deserve to be -7.5 here.

We’re also getting an opportunity to fade a heavy public lean. As some of you may know, the public killed the odds makers in unprecedented fashion last week, going 12-2 and winning every heavy lean. The odds makers aren’t going broke or anything. They killed the public for the first 8 weeks of the season and are still up on the year, but given that, I would be very nervous to bet on a heavy public lean this week because the odds makers, regardless of whether or not you believe in conspiracy theories, always have a way of bouncing back.

Baltimore is also in a bad spot as they go to Pittsburgh next week, a huge game for them. They’re not going to be focused for the lowly non-divisional Raiders with that huge game on their schedule. They’re also coming off a divisional win against the Browns. Teams are 8-15 ATS as non-divisional touchdown favorites off a divisional win as favorites before being divisional dogs since 1989. It’s a very specific trend, but it makes sense. Why would the Ravens be focused for the Raiders after a divisional win before facing their biggest rival, the divisional Pittsburgh Steelers?

The Ravens have won 15 straight home games and they are 20-1 at home in the last 2 and a half seasons, but they’re also just 8-12 ATS at home in that stretch. They’re winning, but not by a lot, which has pretty much been the story of this Ravens’ season (2 wins by more than a touchdown). I love getting more than a touchdown with the Raiders. They’re also just 3-9 ATS as 7+ home dogs since 2010. If the Raiders didn’t have to play this game as a West Coast team at 1 PM ET on the East Coast, this would be a bigger play, but it’s still a significant play on the Raiders.

Public lean: Baltimore (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Oakland covers)

Sharps lean: BAL 6 OAK 4

Final update: No change.

Baltimore Ravens 23 Oakland Raiders 20

Pick against spread: Oakland +7.5 (-110) 3 units

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Baltimore Ravens: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#14)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Ravens

Last week: 13 (-1)

Record: 6-2

They may be 6-2, but dating back to week 1, this team has not won a single game by 10 or more and only one was decided by more than a touchdown, last week at Cleveland, a game in which the lowly Browns actually scored more frequently than the Ravens, but frequently imploded in field goal range and had to settle for 5 field goals. On that stretch, they’ve had two less than stellar performances against the Browns, a 3 point road win against the lowly Chiefs, a near home loss to the Cowboys, and a blowout loss in Houston. This team hasn’t done anything remotely impressive since a 31-30 home win against the Patriots week 3.

Now they have a much tougher schedule as they play the surging Steelers 2 times in 4 weeks after an easier performance this week against Oakland. They also have to play Denver and the New York Giants and got to San Diego, a team that always surges late and one who crushed them in a similar situation last season. Their defense has been destroyed by injuries and ranks 26th in yards per game allowed, while the offense ranks just 19th, producing more than 40 yards per game less than their defense allows and because of Joe Flacco’s inconsistencies, they remain a unit that cannot be relied on weekly to win the game for them if the defense isn’t playing well. They rank just 9th in yards per play differential and 19th in rate of sustaining drives differential. Every year one team goes from a first round bye to out of the playoffs. This team looks like the favorite right now.

Studs

QB Joe Flacco: 15 of 24 for 153 yards and a touchdown, 1 throw away, 2 drops, 102.5 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 4 of 25 drop backs (1 sack, 2 of 3, 1 throw away)

LG Bobbie Williams: Did not allow a pressure on 26 pass block snaps, run blocked for 28 yards on 5 attempts

WR Anquan Boldin: Caught 5 passes for 57 yards on 5 attempts on 23 pass snaps, 1.4 YAC per catch

FS Ed Reed: Allowed 1 catch for 3 yards on 2 attempts, 1 interception, 2 pass deflections, 4 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

MLB Dannell Ellerbe: 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 5 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 2 quarterback hurries on 7 blitzes, 1 penalty, didn’t allow a completion on 2 attempts

MLB Jameel McClain: 4 solo tackles, 5 assists, 2 stops, 1 penalty, allowed 1 catch for 11 yards on 4 attempts

Duds

WR Torrey Smith: Caught 4 passes for 46 yards and a touchdown on 9 attempts on 25 pass snaps, 5.8 YAC per catch, 2 drops

CB Jimmy Smith: Allowed 4 catches for 37 yards on 5 attempts, 1 penalty, 7 solo tackles, 2 stops, 2 missed tackles

LOLB Courtney Upshaw: Didn’t record a pressure on 29 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

RE Haloti Ngata: 2 quarterback hurries on 36 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle

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Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns: Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 9 NFL Picks, Browns, Ravens

Baltimore Ravens (5-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-6)

Road favorites are 42-15 ATS off a bye. That makes sense. Road favorites tend to be very good teams and very good teams tend to be extra focused with a week off. The Browns kind of got screwed over by the schedulers because they have two straight games at home as dogs against a team coming off a bye. Last week, they hosted the Chargers and were 3 point home dogs. However, the Chargers didn’t deserve to be road favorites, especially against the underrated Browns, who are now 4-3-1 ATS on the year. As a result, the Browns were able to pull off a “surprising” upset.

This week, however, they face a Ravens team that does deserve to be road favorites and divisional road favorites off a bye are 20-3 ATS since 2002. They certainly didn’t look like it before the bye in a 43-13 loss to the Texans. Because that loss came immediately after the game in which they lost Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb for the season, a lot of people assume that they’re going to play like that going forward. However, the defense is not at fault. Yes, they allowed 420 total yards, but before they lost Lewis and Webb, they were already allowing 396.7 yards per game and they were 5-1.

The reason they were 5-1 despite poor defensive play was their offense, which was averaging 385 yards per play going into that Houston game. Against Houston, they managed just 176 yards of offense. Joe Flacco did what Joe Flacco does on occasion and had a terrible game. He went 21 of 43 for 147 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions.

However, as inconsistent as Flacco is, he always bounces back. He has won his last 14 straight games off a loss. He’s 5-1 ATS off a loss of 10+. He’s also 3-1 ATS off a game in which he threw more than 20 incompletions. He should have a bounce back game against a much easier Cleveland defense, especially off a bye. He’s 4-0 ATS off a bye.  The defense won’t play well, but they weren’t playing well before the injuries either and they still went 5-1.

Contrary to popular belief, they have yet to miss Lardarius Webb or Ray Lewis. Besides, as much as the Ravens struggle outside the division as road favorites, they’re 5-2 ATS in the division in the Joe Flacco era. On top of that, teams are 30-16 ATS before being 10+ point favorites since 2011. Teams tend to be extra focused in this spot. The Ravens host Oakland next week. Meanwhile, the Browns are in a bad spot as home dogs off of a close home upset (1-3 points). Teams are 21-34 ATS in this spot since 2002.

We are getting some line value with the Browns as the yards per play method says this line should be -2.5 in favor of Baltimore and the rate of sustaining drives method says this should be a pick em. However, that Houston game where they lost the yards per play battle 5.5 to 3.0 and the first down battle 27 to 12 skewed both of those statistics. They should be able to bounce back and the trends are in their favor.

Besides, in the AFC North, the Browns and Bengals have always had trouble against the Ravens and Steelers. The Bengals and the Browns are a combined 22-63 against the Ravens and Steelers since 2002, when the divisions were realigned. Specifically, the Browns are 5-16 against the Ravens. They’ve dropped their last 9 against them and they are 3-6 ATS in those 9 games. I don’t think they’re good enough to beat the Ravens yet.

This would be a bigger play on the Ravens, but there are two things stopping me. The first is just that I’d be more comfortable with the Ravens if the line was -3 or lower. I’m confident the Ravens will win, but they’ve had some close calls this year (wins by 31, 1, 7, 3, and 2), so I’d be more confident if they had field goal protection.

The 2nd reason is that the public is heavily betting on Baltimore. I was hoping that wouldn’t be the case after their fluky blowout loss to the Texans, but it is. I hate betting on heavy public leans. It is good to see, however, that the line is climbing along with the heavy public lean, so there’s no danger of this being a trap line. The Ravens should be the right side though, so it’s a significant lean. That 20-3 ATS trend is hard to go against.

Public lean: Baltimore (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Cleveland covers)

Sharps lean: BAL 15 CLE 6

Final update: Of my 6 big plays this week, 5 of them lined up with heavy sharps leans. I feel really good about this week. However, I’m staying put at just 3 here. I really wish we had field goal protection with the Ravens though.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Cleveland Browns 20

Pick against spread: Baltimore -3.5 (-110) 3 units

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Baltimore Ravens: Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#7)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Ravens

Last week: 4 (-3)

Record: 5-2

Not ready to completely drop the Ravens yet. We all saw the Jets suffer a major injury, have a terrible game, and then exceed expectations by covering in 3 straight games. The AFC is still a joke and the Ravens already have 5 wins. As much as injuries to Lardarius Webb and Ray Lewis hurt, their defense wasn’t playing well to begin with. Their offense was actually what was carrying the team. Flacco is too inconsistent to consistently win games without a good defense, which is why they were struggling to win games even when they were winning (4 straight by a touchdown or less), but he’s also likely to bounce back from a horrific showing in Houston. After all, he hasn’t lost back-to-back games since week 6 of 2009, 14 straight. I have a feeling they bounce back after the bye in Cleveland.

Studs

RG Marshal Yanda: Did not allow a pressure on 49 pass block snaps, run blocked for 17 yards on 1 attempt

MLB Dannell Ellerbe: Allowed 4 catches for 32 yards on 9 attempts, 9 solo tackles, 3 assists, 5 stops, 1 quarterback hurry on 4 blitzes

Duds

QB Joe Flacco: 21 of 43 for 147 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions, 2 drops, 3 batted passes, 1 throw away, 2 hit as thrown, 50.4 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 16 of 47 drop backs (4 sacks, 4 of 12, 1 throw away, 2 hit as thrown, 1 interception)

LG Bobbie Williams: 2 sacks and 2 quarterback hurries on 49 pass block snaps, run blocked for 0 yards on 1 attempt

WR Torrey Smith: Caught 4 passes for 41 yards on 12 attempts on 49 pass snaps, 3.5 YAC per catch, 2 drops, 2 interceptions when thrown to

WR Anquan Boldin: Caught 3 passes for 24 yards on 7 attempts on 48 pass snaps, 4.7 YAC per catch

TE Ed Dickson: Caught 1 pass for 5 yards on 3 attempts on 17 pass snaps, 2.0 YAC per catch, allowed 2 quarterback hurries on 6 pass block snaps

CB Cary Williams: Allowed 7 catches for 74 yards and a touchdown on 8 attempts, 6 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 sack on 1 blitz

NT Terrence Cody: Did not record a pressure on 21 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

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Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans: Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 7 NFL Picks, Ravens, Texans

Baltimore Ravens (5-1) at Houston Texans (5-1)

This is a very interesting game for a number of reasons. The most obvious is Baltimore’s injuries. This line was at -4 a week ago, but because of Baltimore’s injuries, it’s shifted 3 points, even though Baltimore won and Houston got blown out at home. In spite of that, we still are getting a slight public lean on Houston. Houston is heading into a bye this week and touchdown favorites heading into a bye are 43-20 ATS since 2002, which would appear to make Houston the obvious choice this week. However, it must be questioned, because of the huge line movement, if Houston deserves to be touchdown favorites here. If they don’t, it makes more sense to take the points and fade the public.

In order to determine if Houston deserves to be favored by this much over the Ravens, it must be discussed, what kind of team Baltimore had before injuries, how the injuries will affect their talent level, and what kind of mental state they will be in and other intangibles. The first thing is the simplest. We’ll just look at an old gambler stat: yards per play differential.

Injuries aside, Baltimore ranks 2nd in the league in yards per play differential, actually higher than Houston. An old formula says to take the difference in differentials, divide by .15 and add 3 points either way to get the “real” line. By that formula, Baltimore should actually be favored by a half point here on the road, injuries aside of course.

One issue I noticed with using solely this metric, which a lot of bettors do, is it puts too much value on teams that get a lot of big plays, but can’t sustain drives (or conversely, teams that don’t allow a lot of big plays, but can’t get off the field defensively). Think about it. You pass for 30 yards and then gain no yards on your next 3 plays and have to punt. That’s 7.5 yards per play, which is incredibly impressive, but you didn’t sustain a drive. So I’ve essentially created a new statistic called, rate of sustaining drives, not to replace the traditional metric, but to see if any teams are much better in one than the other.

Basically, how I created it is I took first downs and divided it by first downs + turnovers + punts + failed 4th downs. Basically, what it essentially measures is, on any given 1st and 10, how often does a team get another 1st down or sustain the drive. Turnovers (whether traditional or on downs) and punts are obviously failures to achieve 1st and 10. This measures first downs divided by chances at a first down (first downs + failures to achieve 1st and 10).

You can also do this for the defense, how often they can get the opposing team off the field on any given 1st and 10. The statistic is in the form of a percentage and you can subtract the offensive one from the defensive one to get the differential. For example, Houston is at +10.1%, while Baltimore is at +0.2%. The difference between the percents is 9.9, divide by 1.5 this time (which conveniently works very well with the numbers) and add 3 points either way for home field and you get a line of Houston -9.5.

It’s also worth noting that their yards per play differential metric is heavily based on their rank as the league’s #1 team in yards per play. If you truly believe this is the #1 offense in the league, then the yards per play differential metric should make sense to you alone, but if you don’t believe that, which you probably don’t, then you probably disagree that they were the 2nd best team in the league before injuries.

One thing that both metrics agrees about the Ravens is that they were an average defense team before the injuries. That will obviously decline (more on that later) with the injuries, but it’s worth noting that this team wasn’t playing great football before the injuries either. They’ve won 4 straight, but all by 7 or fewer, including games against the lowly Chiefs and Browns. Teams are 11-16 ATS off 4 straight wins of 7 or fewer, which makes some sense because they tend to be overrated based solely off their record,

Now going onto the injuries, the one that everyone is talking about is Ray Lewis, but that’s not their most important injury. He’s been pretty average, not just by his standards, but by anyone’s standards this year. They’ll miss his on the field leadership most of all, but he’ll still be around as a locker room presence. Lardarius Webb’s injury will hurt the most. One of two starting cornerbacks to not surrender a touchdown last year, Webb has allowed 11 catches for 111 yards on 24 attempts, with 1 interception this year and was by far their best defensive back on a struggling pass defense, which already ranked 22nd in the league in YPA allowed. Their struggling pass rush wasn’t helping things as they rank 27th in pass rush efficiency.

Speaking of the pass rush, guess who is trying to play football this weekend: Terrell Suggs. Yes, less than 6 months after tearing his Achilles, Suggs’ friends and family are expected to be at the game in Houston watching him play, barring a setback. Suggs was activated from the PUP this week and was expected to begin light practice with the hope of returning in 3 weeks, but with Lewis and Webb going down, Suggs obviously felt a sense of urgency. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that the reason their pass rush is struggling this year is because of Suggs’ absence.

However, I question if this is a wise move for Suggs. I love the intensity and competitiveness to want to be out there and helping your team and him playing, or even him not playing but trying to play, could be a huge emotional boost for this team (more on that later). However, guys seem to be coming back from major injuries like torn ACLs or Achilles much faster than normal and they rarely have success.

Just this year, guys like Leon Hall and Rashard Mendenhall came back from injuries that normally take a year in 10 and 9 months respectively. Both struggled before suffering another leg injury, likely caused by overcompensation. Going back a few years, Wes Welker returned in 8 months and while he didn’t get reinjured, he had by far his worst season with the Patriots. Adrian Peterson seems to be the only one who has returned from a major injury, been his old self, and not reinjured himself and he’s a freak of nature. I don’t question that Suggs is as well, but the odds are against him and even Peterson took 9 months. Suggs could have a major emotional impact on this team, but I doubt he’d play well.

That leads perfectly into the emotional aspect. Think about the Ravens’ situation this week. They’re 5-1 and one of only two teams in the conference with a winning record. You’re getting a chance to play the other winning team in your conference, a team you beat twice last year, and people are not only writing you off in this game because of a couple injuries, but predicting that you will miss the playoffs and even if you make it, you won’t advance deep. It’s all over the media. This is a proud veteran team with plenty of bulletin board material. They’re touchdown underdogs here, something that’s only happened once in the John Harbaugh era in Baltimore, a cover and near win in New England in last year’s AFC Championship game. Suggs’ attempt to return has to only get them fired up even more for this game.

One other trend works against Houston. Teams who start 4-0 or better are 19-31 ATS as a favorite off their first loss. I also want to mention one injury that no one is talking about: Brian Cushing, who is also done for the year. He tore his ACL 2 weeks ago against the Jets and in their first game without him, the Texans surrendered 42 points at home to the Packers, but no one seems to care about that. There’ are a lot of uncertainties in this game thanks to injuries, but I’m going to grab the points and fade the public for a small play.

Public lean: Baltimore (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Houston covers.

Sharps lean: HOU 11 BAL 11

Final update: Terrell Suggs will play for the Ravens. That’s a huge emotional lift for a team already playing for respect. I’m adding another unit on Baltimore.

Houston Texans 31 Baltimore Ravens 27

Pick against spread: Baltimore +7 (-110) 2 units

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Baltimore Ravens: Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#4)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Ravens

Last week: 3 (-1)

Record: 5-1

The Ravens might have won the battle, but lost the war last week, losing Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb for the season from an already struggling defense. They rank 22nd against the pass and 13th against the run already, which is unheard of for this defense, but this won’t help. Lewis won’t be missed as much as people are saying he will. He’s been pretty average, not just by his standards, but by anyone’s standards this year. They’ll miss his on the field leadership most of all, but he’ll still be around as a locker room presence.

Lardarius Webb’s injury will hurt the most. One of two starting cornerbacks to not surrender a touchdown last year, Webb has allowed 11 catches for 111 yards on 24 attempts, with 1 interception this year and was by far their best defensive back on a struggling pass defense. Their struggling pass rush wasn’t helping things as they rank 27th in pass rush efficiency and Terrell Suggs is expected back sometime next month, although who knows if that’s actually going to happen or how effective he’ll be just 6 months after an Achilles tear. They could really use him though. Fortunately, they have 5 wins in a terrible conference and their offense is playing well, so they should play the playoffs, at the very least.

Studs

QB Joe Flacco: 17 of 26 for 234 yards and a touchdown, 1 batted pass, 1 hit as thrown, 2 drops, 99.3 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 11 of 27 drop backs (1 sack, 4 of 10, 1 hit as thrown, 1 drop)

LOLB Courtney Upshaw: 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 22 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 5 stops

WR Jacoby Jones: Caught 2 passes for 15 yards on 2 attempts on 11 pass snaps, 1.0 YAC per catch, 3 kickoff returns for 159 yards and a touchdown

Duds

CB Jimmy Smith: Allowed 5 catches for 36 yards on 8 attempts, 3 penalties, 6 solo tackles, 2 stops, 3 missed tackles

MLB Jameel McClain: 3 solo tackles, 2 missed tackles, 1 penalty, 1 quarterback hurry on 10 blizes, allowed 1 catch for 6 yards on 1 attempt

ROLB Paul Kruger: Did not record a pressure on 28 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

LE Arthur Jones: Did not record a pressure on 15 pass rush snaps, no tackles

NT Ma’ake Kemoeatu: Did not record a pressure on 16 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 2 stops

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Dallas Cowboys at Baltimore Ravens: Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 6 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Ravens

Dallas Cowboys (2-2) at Baltimore Ravens (4-1)

Since their impressive win over the Patriots week 3, the Ravens have fallen flat in back-to-back games against inferior opponents, winning by just 6 at home against Cleveland and winning by just 3 in Kansas City last week. Does this mean they’re not as good as they once looked? Not necessarily. They won 12 games and were within a “Billy Cundiff” of sending the AFC Championship game to overtime, but they still lost to Jacksonville, Tennessee, San Diego, and Seattle, all inferior teams they should have beaten. They also had 3 and 6 point home wins respectively against Arizona and Cleveland. They just seem to play down to the level of their competition, but that doesn’t make them a bad team.

While the play down to the level of their competition, they also play up to the level of their competition. With the exception of the aforementioned loss to the Patriots in the AFC Championship game, they were 7-0 against playoff teams last year. This year, they’ve played two likely playoff teams, New England and Philadelphia, splitting the pair, but it’s worth noting that their close loss to the Eagles was on the road. They’ve lost just one home game to a playoff team in the last 2 seasons, a 3 point home loss to the Steelers in 2010. Assuming the Patriots make the playoffs this year, they are 8-1 at home against eventual playoff teams in the last 2 plus seasons, so they should bounce back against a quality opponent this week.

I would say the Ravens’ struggles in the past 2 weeks make them underrated, but Dallas might be equally underrated. When last we saw them, they were getting blown out on Monday Night Football, but they were playing a very good opponent and hung pretty even in the yards per play differential category. They lost because they lost the turnover battle 5 to 1 and because 2 of their 5 turnovers were returned for 6. There’s not really a skill in returning turnovers for touchdowns. The numbers show it’s more luck than anything. It’s more about where you are when you get the turnover.

Besides, turnover differentials even out on a week to week basis. If you look at every possible turnover differential that a team can have, teams in each group tend to average a turnover differential of about +0.0 the following week, no matter how good or bad they were in this area the following week. You can see more, here. That’s why I prefer to look at yards per play differentials. Yards tend to be more consistent on a week to week basis.

The Cowboys actually rank 2nd in the league in this category, though that is slightly skewed because it doesn’t take into account penalty yardage, something that’s not inconsistent on a week to week basis and an issue the Cowboys have had for over a year. They are, however, also healthier now as Jay Ratliff will make his season debut and Anthony Spencer will return from injury. Baltimore, meanwhile, ranks 3rd. Only .1 yard per play separates these two teams, so the “real” line should be Baltimore -2.5. It’s at -3.5, so it’s pretty insignificant line value, so it’s tough to call either team overrated or underrated. Besides, the Cowboys’ penalty issue should, at the very least, make up the difference.

So there’s no line value either way. How about the public? What are they doing this week? The public seems to be more down on Dallas after their Monday Night performance than Baltimore as Baltimore is being pretty heavily publicly bet. I normally like to fade the public, but this is one instance where I agree with them. Baltimore always rises to the occasions with these tough tests and they have won their last 14 overall at home, dating back to that Pittsburgh loss. It’s a small play on the hosts.

Public lean: Baltimore (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Dallas covers)

Sharps lean: DAL 24 BAL 9

Final update: This is one of the biggest sharps lean of the week. I understand the appeal with Dallas coming off an embarrassing loss and a bye, but Baltimore is underrated as well after two less than stellar performances and they always play well at home, especially against tough competition. I considering dropping a unit, but I am keeping this at 2.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Dallas Cowboys 20

Pick against spread: Baltimore -3.5 (-110) 2 units

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Baltimore Ravens: Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#3)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Ravens

Last week: 3 (+0)

Record: 4-1

I was tempted to flip flop this team with the Patriots this week, because they continue to play down to the level of competition, but they also play up to the level of the competition, which will serve them well in the playoffs. They also hold the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Patriots and have a 1 game lead on them, so I think they’ll get a 1st round bye with about 12 wins, with the Patriots getting the 3rd seed with the same record.

Studs

ROLB Paul Kruger: 1 quarterback hit and 4 quarterback hurries on 11 pass rush snaps, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 6 stops, 1 missed tackle

Duds

RT Kelechi Osemele: 2 sacks and 5 quarterback hurries on 33 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 16 yards on 5 attempts

LG Ramon Harewood: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 33 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 1 attempt

MLB Ray Lewis: Allowed 1 catch for 16 yards on 1 attempt, 6 solo tackles, 2 assists, 3 stops

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