Ravens

Baltimore Ravens (3-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-3)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 5 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Ravens

Baltimore Ravens (3-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-3)

I ranked the Ravens ranked 3rd in my Power Rankings and called them the 2nd best team in the AFC behind Houston because of the head-to-head win over New England and their superior yards per play differential over New England. I think that New England and Baltimore are both going to finish around 12-4 and with Houston likely to win the AFC, that would leave those two tied for the 2nd seed with the tiebreaker going to Baltimore, by virtue of the head-to-head win, making a likely rematch in the AFC divisional round one in which Baltimore would more likely to win

All that being said, this team really needs to kick their inconsistency habit. I came away from their win over Cleveland very unimpressed and disappointed that this team played down to the level of their opponent once again. They’ll have to prove they can avoid doing that this week. Last year, they were just 2-6 ATS outside of the division against non-playoff teams and their one win was in St. Louis after they had been embarrassed the week before in Tennessee. And at home against Arizona, even a loss the week before in Jacksonville wasn’t enough to embarrass them into avoiding a near loss to the Cardinals. They were even worse on the road, not just going 1-4 ATS, but actually 1-4 SU. Losing in Kansas City this week is definitely possible because they lost in similar situations in Jacksonville, Tennessee, Seattle, and San Diego last year.

Kansas City, meanwhile, looked horrendous last week, turning the ball over 6 times en route to a -5 day in turnovers. As a result of this, the odds makers have been able to move the spread 2.5 points (it was -4 last week) and the public is STILL pounding Baltimore, with a very heavy lean. I love betting against the public, especially on heavy leans. What the public doesn’t understand is how inconsistent turnovers are. Teams that lose the turnover differential battle by 5 have a turnover differential of an average of +0.0 in their following game since 2002. That’s essentially true for every turnover differential bracket you can think of. Kansas City is very underrated and undervalued coming off that loss. Their yards per play differential is actually just -0.2, which isn’t terrible.

Speaking of yards per play differential, an old gambling formula says to take the difference, divide by .15 and add 3 points either way for home field. By that logic, this formula should be -5. It’s not a huge difference at all, but you can argue that should be even lower. The reason Baltimore’s yards per play differential is so good is because Joe Flacco has been very good. You can argue though that he’s not actually an improved quarterback over the rest of his career. The jury is still out.

One thing that’s definitely different for the Ravens this year is their defense and that’s not a good thing. Their defensive yards per play allowed is very pedestrian and a 22nd ranked pass defense has a lot to do with it. The biggest reason for this is that they aren’t getting much of a pass rush as they rank 24th in pass rush productivity. They clearly miss Terrell Suggs.

Matt Cassel and company should be able to move the ball this week, so long as they don’t implode with turnovers again and if Baltimore plays down to the level of the competition yet again, Kansas City could definitely win. The only reasons this isn’t my stand alone pick of the week are that perhaps narrowing beating the Browns last week delivered a wakeup call to them and they won’t play down to the level of the competition. Also, the Ravens are extra rested after a Thursday Night game. Teams off of those games are 111-89 ATS on Sundays since 1989. I wish I had touchdown protection. Still, it’s a significant play and a co-pick of the week.

Public lean: Baltimore (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Kansas City covers)

Update: One cool trend, dogs before being favorites are 72-42 ATS since 2011, including 19-8 ATS off a loss as a dog.

Sharps lean: BAL 13 KC 7

Final update: The sharps don’t like Kansas City, but this is one instance I’m not afraid to disagree with the sharps. This is the exact type of game Baltimore has trouble with and the public is pounding Baltimore because of how bad Kansas City was last week, even though their only issue was turnovers.

Kansas City Chiefs 23 Baltimore Ravens 20 Upset Pick +235

Pick against spread: Kansas City +6.5 (-110) 4 units

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Baltimore Ravens: Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#3)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Ravens

Last week: 3 (+0)

Record: 3-1

The Ravens are the 2nd best team in the AFC, by virtue of their 3-1 record, their head-to-head victory over the Patriots, and a point per play differential that ranks tied for 2nd in the league. However, they really left me disappointed against the Browns last week. This team really needs to kick their inconsistency habit. They’ll have a great chance to prove themselves this week as big road favorites in Kansas City. They were just 1-4 as road favorites outside of the division last year, losing in Seattle, Jacksonville, Tennessee, and San Diego, all games they should have won.

Studs

RG Marshal Yanda: Did not allow a pressure on 55 pass snaps, run blocked for 1 yard on 3 attempts

WR Anquan Boldin: Caught 9 passes for 131 yards on 11 targets on 54 pass plays, 4.0 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

CB Lardarius Webb: Allowed 2 catches for 14 yards on 10 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 5 solo tackles, 2 stops, 3 missed tackles

RE Haloti Ngata: 2 quarterback hits and 3 quarterback hurries on 47 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 2 stops

FS Ed Reed: Allowed 3 catches for 42 yards on 8 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

Duds

TE Dennis Pitta: Did not catch a pass on 2 targets, 2 penalties

NT Ma’ake Kemoeatu: Did not record a pressure on 18 pass rush snaps, no tackles

SS Bernard Pollard: Allowed 4 catches for 51 yards on 4 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles, 1 penalty, 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 3 blitzes

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Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks, Browns, Ravens

Cleveland Browns (0-3) at Baltimore Ravens (2-1)

Yards per play differential is my favorite single stat and right now, the Baltimore Ravens lead the league in it. However, as with any stat, you have to add a human element to it sometimes to interpret it. Baltimore’s defense, uncharacteristically, has been pretty middle of the pack this year, but an offense that ranks 1st in yards per play is behind their high overall ranking. The defensive relative struggles are explainable. The team is missing top pass rusher Terrell Suggs, among others, and ranks just 24th in the league in pass rush efficiency. This has lead to a pass defense that ranks 27th in the league in YPA.

Their suddenly explosive offense is also explainable if you believe that Joe Flacco has taken that next step as a quarterback in his 5th year in the league, thanks, in part, to Torrey Smith breaking out as the legitimate #1 receiver he’s never really had. Flacco has looked very good overall this season, completing 64.5% of his passes for an average of 8.3 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. If he keeps that up all year, those will not only be career highs across the board, but he’ll put himself in the MVP discussion.

However, it’s worth noting that he has played very well in two games against poor pass defenses, Cincinnati ranks 28th and New England ranks 21st, despite facing Kevin Kolb and Jake Locker in two of their games, but he also struggled against the only good pass defense he’s faced so far, going 22 of 42 for 232 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception against the Eagles and their 1st ranked pass defense. Just 3 games into the season, I’d say the jury is still out on Flacco as an elite quarterback.

Fortunately for him, he gets another easy test this week. Cleveland actually ranks 16th in the league against the pass, but if you exclude the game that Joe Haden played, they’re allowing 8.0 YPA, which would be 22nd in the league and that’s against Andy Dalton and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Haden is out for this one, so the Browns don’t have much chance of stopping the Ravens’ offense. Aside from Haden, their secondary is a mess. They’ve already benched two starters back there and neither of their replacements have played much better.

Meanwhile, Jabaal Sheard, their best and only pass rusher from last season, is having a major sophomore slump, with just 6 total pressures and no sacks on 112 pass rush snaps through 3 games. The Browns also have some trouble against the run, ranking 18th in YPC allowed, clearly missing injured nose tackle Phil Taylor. This was the league’s 5th ranked scoring defense last year, but missing key members with other key members struggling, they’re nowhere near that good this year.

On the offensive side of the ball, the Browns are also pretty bad. The Ravens, as I mentioned, do struggle against the pass, but Brandon Weeden is the worst quarterback they’ve faced so far (Andy Dalton, Michael Vick, Tom Brady). Weeden might not be terrible, but he has no help from his supporting cast. They are incredibly young offensively. Besides Joe Thomas, only the washed up Ben Watson is playing significant snaps and was drafted before 2009 and Watson might be losing his job to 2nd year tight end Jordan Cameron. They have 5 rookies playing major roles and 2 players in their 2nd year, 3 if you include Cameron.

Given their youth, they’re at a major disadvantage travelling on 3 days rest. The Ravens’ offense also might not perform up to their normal level on a short week, as short week’s tend to favor defenses (the under is 67-50 on Thursday Night Football since 1989), but the Ravens have an advantage being a proven, veteran, well coached team at home. Home favorites are 45-24 ATS on Thursday since 1989, including 10-3 ATS when the line is 10+. The Browns’ best offensive player is Trent Richardson, but he won’t be able to do much in this game because Baltimore is one again a top-5 run defense.

This game seems pretty cut and dry. The Ravens are one of the best teams in the league and the Browns are one of the worst. As big as this spread is, we’re actually get some line value with the home team. Baltimore’s point per play differential is 1.7 yards better than Cleveland’s and an old handicapping formula says to divide to that by .15 and add 3 either way for home field advantage to determine the “real line.” If you do that, Baltimore would be 14.5 point favorites and that’s not even taking into account how much worse the Browns are without Haden. That obviously works a little bit better a few more weeks into the season, but it’s worth noting.

The experienced, proven Ravens also have a major advantage as huge home favorites on Thursday Night. They’ll be much better prepared for this game than the young Browns, who have to travel. Two factors keep this from being a big play. One is just the size of the line. I hate making big plays on 10+ point favorites. The other is that Baltimore could conceivably be flat off of a huge win last week. Favorites coming off close win as dogs or favorites of 3 or less are 63-95 ATS since 2002, though that trend is less prevalent over the past few years (26-35 ATS since 2008). I still expect this to be a blowout and Baltimore is my survivor pick of the week. I’m also putting a unit on the under (44) because of the trend in mentioned earlier with over/unders on Thursday Night.

Public lean: Baltimore (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Cleveland covers)

Baltimore Ravens 27 Cleveland Browns 6 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO)

Pick against spread: Baltimore -12 (-105) 2 units

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Baltimore Ravens: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#3)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Ravens

Last week: 13 (+10)

Record: 2-1

The Ravens rank 1st in the league in yards per play differential, though you need to add a human element to stats sometimes. Their defense is not what it normally is and they’re clearly missing Terrell Suggs and others. The reason they rank so highly is because their offense leads the league in yards per play. If the defense continues like this, they’ll need to offense to continue that and I don’t know if they can. Whether or not they can has a lot to do with whether or not Joe Flacco has taken that next step. He’s torched two bad defenses and struggled against a good one, so the jury is still out on that one.

Baltimore Ravens

Studs

QB Joe Flacco: 28 of 39 for 382 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception, 1 throw away, 1 drop, 101.7 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 11 of 40 drop backs (no sacks, 1 scramble, 7 of 10, 1 touchdown, 1 throw away, 1 drop)

RB Ray Rice: Rushed for 101 yards (28 after contact) and a touchdown on 20 carries, caught 5 passes for 49 yards on 5 attempts

C Matt Birk: Did not allow a pressure on 47 pass block snaps, run blocked for 64 yards and a touchdown on 13 attempts

RT Kelechi Osemele: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 47 pass block snaps, run blocked for 19 yards on 3 attempts

WR Torrey Smith: Caught 6 passes for 127 yards and a 2 touchdown on 9 attempts on 46 pass snaps, 1 penalty, 4.0 YAC per catch

RE Haloti Ngata: 1 sack and 2 quarterback hits on 44 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 7 solo tackles and 6 stops

Duds

LT Michael Oher: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 4 quarterback hurries on 47 pass block snaps, run blocked for 6 yards on 2 attempts

CB Cary Williams: Allowed 8 catches for 98 yards on 12 attempts, 1 penalty, 10 solo tackles

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New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, Patriots, Ravens

New England Patriots (1-1) at Baltimore Ravens (1-1)

Yes, the Patriots to the Cardinals lost last week. No, it’s not the end of the world. In 2010, they lost to the Browns. In 2011, they lost to the Bills. Neither of those games meant anything. They won 14 games in 2010 and 13 games in 2011. This is still the most consistent franchise over the past decade. This is football. Sometimes shit happens that doesn’t make any sense and is completely unpredictable that doesn’t mean anything.

But it is important to look at how the Patriots lost to the Cardinals. The Patriots outgained the Cardinals 387 to 245 and averaged 5.0 yards per play to the Cardinals’ 4.0 and they won the turnover battle 2-1. As a result, the Patriots led 6 drives into scoring range to Arizona’s 4. However, the difference was, on New England’s 6 trips into scoring range, they scored just 1 touchdown and settled for 5 field goals, one of which was the potential game winner, which missed. Arizona scored 2 touchdowns and 2 field goals on their 4 trips into scoring range. The Patriots also committed 8 penalties to Arizona’s 5. Historically though, whether or not you win the yardage battle the most accurate indicator of future performance. The Patriots actually rank 6th in the NFL in yards per play differential (I’ll get into this more later).

The other main reason the Patriots lost was the injury to Aaron Hernandez. If you lose one of the focal points of your offense that early like the Patriots did, you basically have to scrap your whole game plan and that puts you at a massive disadvantage. Hernandez is out for this one, which still hurts, but it won’t hurt as much as it did last week because the Patriots have gotten an entire week to adapt. They will be using more 3-wide receiver looks this week and Kellen Winslow, recently signed, will see some action as the move tight end in specialized situations.

Winslow is not Hernandez obviously, but he’s closer to him than anyone else on the team. Without Hernandez last week, they could run two-tight end sets because they didn’t have a move tight end on the roster, running their signature package on just 4 of 50 pass plays after the injury. The Patriots adapt better than probably any other team in the league. I expect them to do that this week and minimize the loss of Hernandez as much as they can. Julian Edelman will see more snaps in his absence and he looked good last week.

So basically the conclusion is that the Patriots’ loss last week, however surprising, was very explainable in hindsight and doesn’t matter that much going forward. However, this line suggests it does. The line has moved 3 points since last week, going from even to -3 in favor of Baltimore, who, by the way, also lost last week. There’s a lot of overreaction and because of that, there’s good line value here.

Besides, if history is any indication, the Patriots loss last week makes it MORE likely they’ll win this week. Tom Brady is amazing when people doubt him. Last week’s loss did just enough to get people to doubt him. In his career off a loss, he’s 28-8 SU, 24-12 ATS, off an upset loss he’s 17-4 SU, 15-6 ATS, as an underdog he’s 24-16 SU, 27-12 ATS (13-4 ATS since 2003), as an underdog off a loss he’s 11-1 SU, 11-1 ATS, and as an underdog off an upset loss 6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS.

This game reminds me of the Patriots’ games in Pittsburgh and New York (against the Jets) in each of the last 2 years respectively. All of those aforementioned situations were true in those 2 games as well and I made huge plays on the Patriots in each of those two games and won both times. Both of these games were on the road against similar caliber opponents. And the Patriots didn’t just win those games; they dominated them, beating Pittsburgh 39-26 and the Jets 37-16. In fact, historically in this situation, they dominate teams. In those 11 wins as an underdog off a loss, the Patriots have outscored opponents by a whopping 16.6 points per game.

Now let’s move onto the Ravens. The Ravens right now, I think, are a little bit overrated. They’re clearly missing Terrell Suggs and others they lost this offseason. Their defensive performance in their first 2 games has been very unravenlike. The 808 yards they’ve allowed in those 2 games ranks 27th in the NFL. They’ve won the turnover battle in each of those 2 games and have a +4 turnover differential overall, but as I’ve said so many times, turnover differentials can be very inconsistent on a week to week and year to year basis. The Ravens can’t keep relying on forcing turnovers to stop people, especially against an opponent in the Patriots who, in spite of what I just said about the inconsistency of turnovers, have managed to maintain any incredibly low turnover rate over the past decade. This is not the same defense that kept Tom Brady in check in the AFC Championship Game last year and arguably allowed Joe Flacco to outplay Brady statistically.

Speaking of Joe Flacco, he had a great opener against Cincinnati completing 21 of 29 for 299 yards and 2 touchdowns before falling flat against Philadelphia, completing 22 of 42 for 232 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Which one is the real Joe Flacco? Probably neither. The Bengals team he torched in the opener was missed two of their top cornerbacks and had the washed up Nate Clements and the also washed up Terence Newman seeing a bunch of snaps next to Leon Hall, who was 10 months removed from an Achilles tear and was uncharacteristically torched for over 100 yards by himself. They were also without top pass rusher Carlos Dunlap. Missing that same trio, the Bengals were torched by the Browns the following week as Brandon Weeden, whose QB rating the week before was 5.1, completed 26 of 37 for 322 yards and 2 touchdowns.

However, he’s not as bad as he looked against Philadelphia. Philadelphia is one of the best defenses in the league (they’re a big part of the reason why Weeden’s QB rating was 5.1 in the opener). Most likely, he’s still the same quarterback he’s always been. Any talk of a breakout year from him is premature, but any talk of a down year for him is equally short sighted. This year, he’s completed 60.6% of his passes for an average of 7.5 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Those numbers are eerily similar to his career numbers, 60.8% completion 7.1 YPA, and 83 touchdowns to 47 interceptions. He’s still the same quarterback he’s always been.

So what’s the difference? The difference is schematically. The Ravens have gone to more of a no huddle, pass first offense this year. They’ve had a designed run on just 35.2% of their offensive snaps this year. For reference, last year, they ran on 40.5% of their offensive snaps. Joe Flacco is still the same quarterback he’s always been, but the coaching staff seems to think otherwise as they’ve upped his responsibility enormously and I don’t think he’s ready for that.

Meanwhile, while this is not the same Ravens defense that held Tom Brady in check last year, allowing Joe Flacco to arguably outplay him statistically, this is not the same Patriots defense that allowed Joe Flacco to arguably outplay Tom Brady statistically. Last year, like the Ravens are now, the Patriots were very reliant on turnovers for stops, ranking 29th in yards per play allowed, 6.0 (for reference, Baltimore is 20th at 5.6 this year as opposed to 1st at 4.6 last year), but forced 34 turnovers, most in the AFC (for reference, Baltimore was right in the middle at 26).

This year, the Patriots rank 5th in yards per play allowed (part of how they rank 6th in yards per play differential), allowing 4.3, but they’ve forced a much more middle of the pack 4 turnovers in 2 games. Part of this low yards per play allowed average is the competition (Tennessee and Arizona), but also part of it is an actual improvement in play. They’ve gotten several guys back from injury and several newcomers are playing very well. They’re no longer as reliant on turnovers to stop people; the Ravens are the ones who actually fit that description better now.

Flacco and the Ravens won’t find it as easy to move the ball as they did last year, especially if they continue to be as pass heavy as they have been, which isn’t really the most efficient game plan for this offense and this group of offensive personnel. Brady, meanwhile, should be able to move the ball easier than he did last year against a Baltimore defense that has been uncharacteristically bad through 2 games.

Baltimore’s uncharacteristically bad defensive play has not been the result of level of competition. Allowing 486 points to the Eagles is somewhat understandable, but allowing 322 to the Bengals is much more head scratching. Andy Dalton and the Bengals are an overrated team, specifically on offense. I mentioned how bad their defense has been, especially with all of those injuries, but their offense really struggles too, especially against tougher competition. Andy Dalton was 0-8 against playoff teams last year and completed 55.6% of his passes for an average of 6.5 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions in those 8 games. In those 8 games, they only exceeded the 322 yards they had against Baltimore week 1 three times. In the opener, Joe Flacco had a good game against a terrible defense and a mediocre offense moved the ball better than it should have. Week 2, Joe Flacco did not have a good game and the defense was pretty atrocious. That’s why I say the Ravens are overrated. In terms of yards per play differential, they rank 12th.

This line, -3 in favor of the Ravens, is not only an overreaction to a fluky Patriots’ loss to the Cardinals, but it overrates the Ravens. I don’t think these two teams are equal, which is what the line suggests (3 points for home field advantage). On top of that, this is the exact situation that Tom Brady and the Patriots thrive in, people are doubting them, they’re coming off a loss, they’re underdogs against a tough opponents on the road, they’ll have a bounce back game. Like the Patriots/Jets game last year and the Patriots/Steelers game in 2010, the Patriots are going to be a huge bet here.

Two things that worry me here: the Ravens have won 12 straight at home and this is a huge revenge game for the Ravens. However, in those 12 games, the Ravens are just 6-5-1 ATS. Meanwhile, while this will be a huge game for the Ravens, who feel they deserved to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl last year, this is also a huge game for the Patriots, who are playing for respect coming off an embarrassing loss and playing a huge game on Sunday Night Football. It’s a statement game for both teams. Both teams are going to put everything they have into this week. It’s just a matter of which quarterback do you trust in a statement game more, Joe Flacco or Tom Brady. I don’t know about you, but I’m going with Brady.

Plus, teams seeking to get revenge for a playoff loss are just 18-24 ATS since 2008, so there’s no real trend that says teams play better and are more likely to cover when they’re trying to avenge a playoff loss. That makes sense as those types of games are normally between two good teams and are huge statement games for both sides. I’m making a huge play on the Patriots this week in this statement game. This is my pick of the month. Bet the farm on this one and if you don’t have a farm, buy one and I promise you that you’ll have two in a week. For the record, this is only the 8th time in 2 plus years of doing this that I’ve made a 6 unit bet. I’m 5-2 (Pats over Jets last year was one).

Update: I’m not putting any more units on this one, but I forgot to mention that the Patriots are in one of my favorite situations, dogs after a loss as a favorite before being favorites. The Patriots go to Buffalo next week. Teams are 44-21 ATS since 2008 in this situation (24-8 ATS since 2010). Also, teams coming off a loss as 13+ point favorites are 26-18 ATS since 1989. This is one of my favorite plays ever.

Public lean: Baltimore (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if New England covers)

New England Patriots 31 Baltimore Ravens 20 Upset Pick +125

Pick against spread: New England+3 (-120) 6 units

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Baltimore Ravens: Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#13)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Ravens

Last week: 14 (+1)

Record: 1-1

The Ravens are overrated. We’ll see it this weekend. They rank just 12th in yards per play differential, despite playing one of their games against a banged up Bengals team that I think is one of the worst in the league. They clearly miss Terrell Suggs and others defensively. Only 5 teams have given up more yards than they have. Joe Flacco had a good game against a Bengals defense that Brandon Weeden torched for 322 yards and 2 touchdowns last week, but fell flat against a much better Eagles defense, completing 22 of 42 for 232 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. They have a +4 turnover differential in 2 games and you can’t rely on winning the turnover battle every week, as it’s historically inconsistent on a week to week and year to year basis.

Studs

ROLB Albert McClellan: 2 quarterback pressures on 10 pass rush snaps, 8 solo tackles, 6 stops

RE Haloti Ngata: 3 quarterback hits on 32 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

CB Lardarius Webb: Was not thrown on, 6 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 missed tackles

K Justin Tucker: 6 kickoffs, 3 touchbacks, 62.2 yards per kickoff, 25.5 opponent’s average starting distance, 3/3 FG (48, 51, 56)

Duds

RT Kelechi Osemele: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 4 quarterback pressures on 49 pass block snaps, run blocked for 10 yards on 2 attempts

QB Joe Flacco: 22 of 42 232 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception, 1 batted pass, 1 drop, 61.4 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 16 of 44 drop backs (2 sacks, 5 of 14, 1 touchdown)

WR Anquan Boldin: Caught 2 passes for 7 yards on 4 attempts on 46 pass snaps, 4.0 YAC per catch

CB Cary Williams: Allowed 4 catches for 55 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 1 penalty, 3 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle

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Baltimore Ravens at Philadelphia Eagles: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Eagles, Ravens

Baltimore Ravens (1-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-0)

Before the season started, I identified 5 teams I thought were overrated and 5 I thought were underrated. The idea was to bet these teams (or against these teams) until I was proven wrong or until the odds makers caught up. It served me well last week. Of the 7 games involving these 10 teams, I nailed 5, including my pick of the week. I unfortunately went 3-6 on my other 9 to finish at .500 for the week ATS, but it’s good to see that my overrated/underrated choices seem to have been pretty accurate. I’ll try to use those this week, unless I feel the odds makers caught up, with two exceptions (San Francisco and Buffalo, two I got wrong last week).

Here, I don’t really feel the odds makers caught up and there’s a good reason for that. Baltimore got a blow out win last week, as I predicted they would, but they did it against Cincinnati. Cincinnati was one of my overrated teams as well, so the Ravens remain overrated because they blew out an overrated opponent. Cincinnati didn’t beat a single playoff team last year and has been hit by the injury bug as hard as maybe any team in football.

Then there’s the issue of Andy Dalton’s arm strength. Jay Gruden did a great job of scheming around his physical limitations last year, but you can only do that for so long. He struggled down the stretch last season, particularly against tougher opponents, and continued that in the preseason and in the opener against Baltimore, where he completed 22 of 37 for 221 yards and a pick. Those numbers don’t even tell the whole story. Only 80 of those 221 yards were in the air; the rest were after the catch. He settled for short stuff all night, completing just 4 passes that went more than 10 yards through the air (4 of 11) and his adjusted QB rating of 66.2 was 26th out of 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL week 1.

Some interpret that game as the Ravens being better than people thought. I’m sticking with my original prediction that the Bengals are just worse than we thought. As for the Ravens, they seem to have an improved offense, but they lost several key contributors defensively and have several others aging and they have yet to prove to me that their struggles on the road and overall inconsistencies are gone. The latter is very important for this game. Yes, they blew out Cincinnati at home, but until they prove they can be consistent and win on the road, something they didn’t do last year, I’m going to continue to pick against them in those situations.

Last year, this team was 4-5 on the road, as opposed to 9-0 at home. They lost to Tennessee by 13, Jacksonville by 5, Seattle by 5, San Diego by 20, and New England by 3, while beating St. Louis by 30, Pittsburgh by 3, Cleveland by 10, and Cincinnati by 8. Only their near win in New England and their win in Pittsburgh were impressive road performances (maybe the blowout win over St. Louis, but they won just 2 games).

They also fell flat after big performances, losing to Seattle and Tennessee after beating Pittsburgh twice. They were just 3-5 SU on the road coming off a win last year. Normally, that wouldn’t trouble me, but they’re 13-17 SU in that situation since Harbaugh/Flacco came in back in 2008. It’s really weird for a team that’s 37-7 SU in all other situations.

This week, they’re coming off a big win, a coming out party of sorts on Monday Night Football, week 1, a blowout win over a divisional foe. However, they did the same thing last year week 1 and lost by 13 in Tennessee the next week. This year, they go to Philadelphia week 2. They are a much better team than Tennessee was last year.

Let’s go on to Philadelphia. I had them as slightly underrated going into the season. I had them making a big improvement over last season, but apparently so did everyone else. Their +68 points differential was best among non-playoff teams by a mile (San Diego was closest at +29). In fact, only 8 teams finished with a higher points differential, which means the Eagles played like a 10 or 11 win team last year, a win total they could have had if they had an average record in close games. Turnovers and records in games decided by less than 7 tend to average out on a year to year basis.

The Eagles had 38 turnovers last year. Teams that turn the ball over 35 times or more in a season have on average 9.7 fewer turnovers the next season and win on average 1.61 more games, since 2002. Add 1.61 wins to what this team’s points differential suggested their wins total should have been and you get an 11-12 win team. Since 2002, 42 teams have 35 or more turnovers and 36 have had 20 or fewer. The 42 teams who’ve had 35 or more turnovers have had 28.3 turnovers on average the next season. That’s only 2 turnovers more than the 26.3 that the 36 teams with 20 or fewer turnovers had the following season.

This year, they may be even more talented. However, the odds makers set their over/under at 10, one of only 9 teams with an over/under of 10 or more and the only non-playoff team in 2011. Because of that, they lost most of their “underratedness” and their week 1 line against Cleveland, -7.5 in Cleveland, was completely reasonable. There was no line value there.

This week, I think there is some line value. At the very least, these two teams are probably about even, so this line should be -3 or higher and that’s not taking into account Baltimore’s consistency and road issues from last season. The final score from last week’s game is a little misleading and skews this line a little, as does Baltimore’s blowout win over the secretly lowly Bengals. Yes, the Eagles did barely beat the Browns by 1 in Cleveland, but they outgained them 456 to 210.

So what happened? Well, the Eagles lost the turnover battle 5 to 4, which was a common problem for them last year and one that will have to get cleaned up. The other issue was just what the Browns did with those turnovers, as opposed to what the Eagles’ did. The Browns returned their 5 takeaways for 88 yards, while the Eagles managed just 13 yards on their 4 takeaways. Preventing the other team from getting a big gain or a score once they have the turnover is way more skill than luck. Even if the Eagles lose the turnover battle again this week, they could still win if they outgain the Ravens, so long as they don’t get killed with turnovers.

They may turn the ball over a couple of times, but so could the Ravens. The Eagles have one of the best defenses in the league. It wasn’t just the Browns’ offense making them look good. The biggest strength of the Eagles’ defense is their pass rush. They were tied for the league lead with 50 sacks last year, lead by 29 sacks from Trent Cole and Jason Babin combined, and could be even better this year as they add rotational rookies Fletcher Cox and Vinny Curry and return Brandon Graham from injury. They legitimately go 6 deep at defensive end with Cole, Babin, Graham, Curry, Darryl Tapp, and Phillip Hunt. For what it’s worth, I think they have 6 defensive ends better than Frostee Rucker, who starts at defensive end for the Eagles. They go 3 deep at defensive tackle with Cullen Jenkins, Derek Landri, and Cox. I think they might have the deepest defensive line in football.

Moving back on the Eagles defense, they added two much needed starters at linebacker this offseason, DeMeco Ryans and Mychal Kendricks. Though the latter is a 2nd round rookie, linebackers typically don’t take as long to transition to the NFL. Their secondary also makes a lot more sense this year than last year, even though they lost Asante Samuel. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie will no longer be playing on the slot, where he is such a poor fit. Heading into a contract year, DRC should be motivated and playing outside again will allow him to have a bounce back year. He really played well against the Browns.

Now on the slot is 4th round rookie Brandon Boykin. He might have been the top coverage cornerback in the draft after Morris Claiborne, but fell because of his lack of size and injury. He’s healthy now and his lack of size doesn’t matter much on the slot, where he figures to have a positive impact. Meanwhile, Nnamdi Asomugha will no longer be playing in zone coverage, like they had him in for the first 12 games of last season. Asomugha was a terrible fit in that scheme and played much better in their final 4 games once they allowed him to play man. He’s one of the top cornerbacks in the league in the right coverage scheme and it’s no coincidence they had the league’s best passing defense in their final 4 games once Asomugha started playing much better and that carries over into last week.

With DRC and Asomugha both playing like shutdown cornerbacks, they should be able to put the clamps on the Ravens’ new found explosive offense. They’ll certainly find it a lot tougher to move the ball in Philadelphia against the Eagles than they did at home against a Bengals team missing two key cornerbacks and their top pass rusher.

As for the Ravens’ defense, they’re still good, but they did allow 322 yards of offense to the Bengals, which is a cause for concern. Terrell Suggs is out and Jarret Johnson and Cory Redding, two key parts of their run defense last year, are gone. Young players have to play more than they’re used to and they didn’t play very well against the Bengals. On top of that, Ed Reed and Ray Lewis are aging. Unless the Eagles get killed in the turnover battle like they did so many times last year, they should be able to win this game at home and, as I mentioned earlier, turnover differentials can be very inconsistent on a year to year basis.

Public lean: Baltimore (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Philadelphia covers)

Philadelphia Eagles 31 Baltimore Ravens 17

Pick against spread: Philadelphia -2 (-110) 3 units

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Baltimore Ravens: 2012 Week 2 Power Rankings (#14)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Ravens

Last week: 15 (+1)

Record: 1-0

This is the first in 4 straight controversial rankings. Two of my early season bold predictions, Titans over Ravens and Rams over 49ers, took a hit on an otherwise solid week 1, but I hate to change predictions after 1 week. I’d rather be wrong than flip flop because I think I’m wrong and then be proven right. Everyone is wrong about stuff. If I’m wrong about this, I can live with that, but I’m sticking with my preseason predictions for the most part. The Ravens played a Bengals team I pegged as overrated to begin the year, for various reasons, and I had a feeling they would blow them out in Baltimore.

I was not surprised about anything that happened in that game and I’m not changing my prediction after it. Joe Flacco and the offense shredded an overrated Bengals defense and their defense, that lost several key players this offseason and has several aging veterans, allowed 322 yards to an overrated Bengals offense. Against tougher competition, their offense might not look quite so improved and their defense could really get exposed. On top of that, this team really struggled with both consistency and playing on the road last year. If they continue to do that, they’ll lose in Philadelphia next week. If they beat Philadelphia and conquer that, they’ll move up.

Studs

QB Joe Flacco: 21 of 29 for 309 yards, 2 touchdowns, no interceptions, 1 hit as thrown, 109.8 adjusted QB rating, pressured 9 times

RB Ray Rice: 68 yards (35 after contact) and 2 touchdowns on 10 carries, 2 broken tackles, 3 catches for 25 yards on 4 targets

MLB Ray Lewis: 7 solo tackles, 6 stops on 23 run snaps, 1 sack on 4 blitzes, allowed 3 completions for 18 yards on 6 attempts

SS Bernard Pollard: Allowed 1 completion for 6 yards on 2 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 batted pass, 1 quarterback pressure on 5 blitzes, 6 solo tackles and 3 stops on 24 run snaps

FS Ed Reed: Allowed 1 completion for 5 yards on 2 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 interception, 3 solo tackles and 1 missed tackle on 22 run snaps

K Justin Tucker: 9 kickoffs, 5 touchbacks, 72.6 yards per kickoff, 19.0 average starting position, 3/3 FG (39, 40, 46)

Duds

LOLB Paul Kruger: 0 sacks, quarterback hits, or quarterback pressures on 31 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle on 23 run snaps

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Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Bengals, Ravens

Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) at Baltimore Ravens (0-0)

Buy tickets for this game

Anyone who followed me during the offseason knows I picked 5 underrated and overrated teams with the intention of trying to get ahead of the odds makers. I will and have been basically just been betting on the underrated teams and against the overrated teams blindly until I’m proven wrong or the odds makers catch up. Unfortunately, I kind of got screwed over this week because two of my underrated teams and two of my overrated teams are playing each other. This game is the latter.

The Bengals made a 5 game improvement last season to go from 4 wins to 9 wins. If history holds, they’ll regress this year as teams that make that kind of improvement regress an average of 2.4 wins per season since the beginning of the 16 game NFL season. Andy Dalton had a rough preseason and really struggled in games against playoff teams last season, during which he went 0-8. He should regress this season now that teams know how to scheme against the Bengals’ system. Andy Dalton had a decent rookie year because of the great job Jay Gruden did as offensive coordinator, but there’s only so long a system can keep a player looking better than he is because you can figure out how to scheme against systems. There’s a reason he struggled so much down the stretch and against better teams. I compare it to Colt McCoy, who looked alright as a rookie, but not only didn’t take that next step in his 2nd year, but also regressed noticeably. Dalton, like McCoy, definitely does not have history on his side as he tries to make the leap to “franchise quarterback.” Only 9 of 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL today weren’t 1st round picks. In each of the last 2 years, only 4 of 12 starting quarterbacks in the playoffs weren’t 1st round picks.

The Bengals were also hit hard by injuries this preseason as offensive lineman Kyle Cook and Travelle Wharton are both expected to miss the season, with Wharton already on IR. The Bengals injury list is even longer this week as Dre Kirkpatrick and Jason Allen won’t play, Bernard Scott won’t play and Carlos Dunlap and Robert Geathers might not play. Kirkpatrick’s and Allen’s absence will force Nate Clements, in his age 33 season, to start opposite Leon Hall. Hall, meanwhile, probably won’t be 100% just 10 months after tearing his Achilles. Including playoffs, they allowed 23.8 points per game in their final 9 games without Hall, as opposed to 17.5 points per game in their first 8 games with Hall last season. Obviously having him 100% would be a huge boost for them, but I can’t see him being 100%, at least not this week.

Meanwhile, Bernard Scott’s absence means that BenJarvus Green-Ellis will have the carry the load against Baltimore’s stout run defense. BJGE is good at running through holes and not fumbling, but he averaged just 3.7 YPC last year and ranked just 61st out of 67 eligible backs in yards after contact per carry with 2.0. That was in New England, with Tom Brady making life easy for the running backs. Andy Dalton is not Tom Brady, so BJGE will find very little running room, especially with the Bengals missing two starting interior offensive lineman against a great run defense like the Bengals’. The Bengals won’t be able to run the ball this week.

Geathers’ and Dunlap’s potential absences hurt because the Bengals already lost Frostee Rucker and Jonathan Fanene as free agents this offseason. They love rotation on the defensive line and those two were key parts of that rotation. They’ll be replaced by the mediocre Jamaal Anderson and Devon Still, a 2nd round rookie playing out of position. If Geathers and Dunlap miss this game, that means that Anderson will have to start next to Michael Johnson, the least effective member of their pass rush rotation last year with 7 sacks, but just 6 quarterback hits and 15 quarterback pressures, good for a 6.5% rate on 433 pass rush snaps. Those two would probably also have to play most of the game, something they’re just not used to.

Dunlap, the more likely of the two to miss, was one of the best pass rushers in the league last year. Dunlap managed 5 sacks, 13 quarterback hits, and 29 quarterback pressures, on 302 pass rush snaps, a pass rush rate of 15.6%. He’d obviously be a huge loss and right not it sounds like he’ll be out. Given their troubles in the secondary, the Bengals have to get pass rush to have any chance of stopping the Ravens’ passing attack, but I don’t think that will happen.

The Ravens are banged up too as they’re missing Terrell Suggs likely for the season on defense. They also lost two other defensive starters, Cory Redding and Jarrett Johnson, key members of their run defense. The Ravens have depth in the front 7, but guys like Paul Kruger, Pernell McPhee, Arthur Jones, and Albert McClellan will have to play more than they did last year and it’s always a projection to expect them to keep up their levels of play as they get more playing time. Meanwhile, Courtney Upshaw, their 2nd round rookie, will have to play more than they would have liked. On top of all that, Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are aging.

Inferior defensive play will put more pressure on the Ravens’ offense, especially Joe Flacco and company. Joe Flacco looked great in the preseason, with Torrey Smith appearing to be the #1 receiver that Flacco has really lacked his whole career. I almost changed the Ravens’ projection after seeing them in the preseason, but I didn’t because I didn’t want to put too much stock in the preseason. They are, however, really one of those teams that fell out of the playoffs in my preseason predictions out of circumstance. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if they played well and made the playoffs, despite their losses on defense, but it also wouldn’t surprise me if they missed the playoffs.

Because they fell out of circumstance, I feel more comfortable going with the Ravens than the Bengals in this one. I don’t trust the overrated Andy Dalton to beat the Ravens, considering he’s never beaten a playoff team and the Ravens were undefeated at home last year (9-0), as inconsistent as they were on the road. It’s not a very big bet though.

Baltimore Ravens 24 Cincinnati Bengals 13

Pick against spread: Baltimore -6 (-110) 2 units

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Baltimore Ravens Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Torrey Smith

stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, Ravens

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is the part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Baltimore Ravens, that player is wide receiver Torrey Smith.

Torrey Smith was excellent as a rookie, catching 50 balls for 841 yards and 7 touchdowns and he was even better in his last 7 games, catching 27 balls for 416 yards and 3 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 62 catches for 951 yards and 7 touchdowns. Keep in mind he played all of last season with a double sports hernia.

This is incredibly impressive for a rookie. Discounting Julio Jones and AJ Green, since the 2005 NFL Draft, 22 receivers have gone in the 1st round of the NFL Draft. In their rookie years, they have averaged 37 catches for 524 yards and 3 touchdowns. The leader in rookie production among those 22, strangely Dwayne Bowe, who caught 70 passes for 995 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2007. And Smith did all that as a 2nd round rookie, dealing with a sports hernia all year, coming off a lockout, and functioning as his team’s secondary receiver (90 targets to Anquan Boldin’s 102).

Now that he’s a year older and Anquan Boldin is a year older on the wrong side of 30, Smith should continue to improve as a receiver and establish himself as Baltimore’s clear #1 receiver. We could even see a Mike Wallace/Hines Ward type situation here. As a rookie, Wallace caught 39 passes for 756 yards and 6 touchdowns, while the veteran Ward caught 95 passes for 1167 yards and 6 touchdowns. However, in Wallace’s 2nd season, the tables turned and Wallace caught 60 passes for 1257 yards and 10 touchdowns, while an aging Ward caught 59 passes for 755 yards and 5 touchdowns. Smith should have his first 1000 yard season and with upside to make his 1st Pro Bowl.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2