Quarterback

When Drew Brees retired at the end of the 2020 season, the Saints were faced with a choice. They had spent aggressively in the final years of Brees’ career in an attempt to win a Super Bowl while they still had a future Hall of Fame quarterback, doing so at the expense of future cap space. With Brees gone, they could have completely torn down the roster and gone through a full rebuild, but instead they opted to continue spending aggressively at the expense of future cap space, in an attempt to stay relevant.

The result was five seasons where the Saints were never terrible, but also never made the post-season, while their roster got increasingly old and increasingly bad. Last season was the worst season, as the Saints fell to 5-12 and were set to have no financial flexibility for the next two off-seasons to improve their roster. A recent stretch of poor drafting didn’t help matters, as the last time the Saints drafted a player who made a Pro Bowl while a member of the Saints was back in 2019.

Going into this off-season, the Saints were again faced with a choice of going through a rebuild or staying the course, in this case choosing between undergoing a likely even longer rebuild than before or staying on an increasingly declining course. The Saints at first seemed content to stay the course, but then a big decision was made for them, when quarterback Derek Carr opted to retire. Originally, the Saints restructured Carr’s contract, freeing up cap space this off-season at the expense of next off-season, but Carr’s injured shoulder worsened and ultimately caused Carr to hang them up ahead of what would have been his age 34 season in 2025.

Carr’s retirement gave them some additional financial flexibility this off-season, but it put them in an even tougher situation as a franchise. They’re still already over next year’s salary cap and they still have the 4th highest average annual age of their roster in 2025, even with Carr retiring, and now they are without a quarterback. Carr wasn’t elite or anything last season, but he played pretty well when healthy, completing 67.7% of his passes for an average of 7.69 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions in 10 starts, one of the Saints’ few bright spots last season, as they went 5-5 when he started and 0-7 when he didn’t.

To replace Carr, the Saints used a second round pick on Tyler Shough and, even though he was the third quarterback selected in a bad quarterback draft, he is expected to start immediately, given the Saints’ lack of alternatives. Spencer Rattler made six of the seven starts in Carr’s absence last season, but the 2024 5th round pick predictably struggled, completing 57.0% of his passes for an average of 5.78 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. 

Jake Haener made the other start but the 2023 4th round pick was even worse, completing 46.2% of his passes for an average of 5.79 YPA, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception in his first career action. Rattler also has the higher upside of the two options and should at least beat out Haener for the backup job, but it’s unlikely he will beat out Shough for the starting job. If he does, that probably says more negative about Shough than it does positive about Rattler. Overall, this looks like clearly the worst quarterback room in the league, without a single quarterback who has ever won a game in the NFL.

Grade: C

Receiving Corps

If there is one reason to be at least somewhat optimistic about this offense it’s the fact that they should be healthier on offense this season, after leading the league in offensive adjusted games lost to injury last season. Their receiving corps was especially hard hit, as their expected two top receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed were limited to 315 snaps in 8 games and 286 snaps in 6 games respectively. Both played at a high level when healthy, averaging 2.42 yards per route run and 2.07 yards per route run respectively and posting slash lines that extrapolate to 85/1082/3 and 57/989/9 respectively over 17 games, if you exclude the two games in which Olave left early due to injury.

Both should be healthier this season and both have a high upside. Olave is the most proven of the two, as the 2022 1st round pick has averaged 2.21 yards per route run in three seasons in the league, while finishing with slash lines of 72/1042/4 and 87/1123/5 in 2022 and 2023, before last season’s injury plagued campaign. The concern is he’s now suffered four documented concussions in his professional career, including two last season, which puts his long-term future into some doubt. He’s still only going into his age 25 season and has a lot of high level football ahead of him if he can stay healthy, but that’s far from a guarantee.

Shaheed, meanwhile, went undrafted in 2022, but showed a ton of promise right away, with a 28/488/2 slash line on 34 targets and 2.60 yards per route run in 12 games as a part-time player as a rookie. He couldn’t keep up that level of efficiency in a bigger role in his second season in the league in 2023, but he still had a solid 46/719/5 slash line on 75 targets in 15 games with 1.67 yards per route run and he seemed to take a step forward in limited action last season. 

Shaheed is a couple years older than Olave, going into his age 27 season, but he’s still very much in his prime and, even if he can’t keep up last season’s level of play over a full season, he should remain at least an above average wide receiver in 2025. When healthy, he and Olave are one of the best wide receiver duos in the league, though I would expect their overall production and efficiency to be kept down by their quarterback play.

In the absence of Olave and Shaheed, four other Saints wide receivers played between 300 and 400 snaps, but most of them struggled, with the exception being Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who was signed mid-season and had a 17/385/4 slash line across 35 targets in 8 games, while averaging 1.70 yards per route run. Valdes-Scantling wasn’t retained this off-season and, instead, it will be free agent acquisition Brandin Cooks as the third receiver behind Olave and Shaheed.

For Cooks, this is a homecoming, as he spent the first three seasons of his career in New Orleans, prior to being traded to the Patriots for a first round pick after the 2016 season. Cooks has had a great career, surpassing 1000 yards receiving six times and averaging 1.71 yards per route run across eleven seasons in the league, but he is now going into his age 32 season and has clearly slowed down in recent years. His last 1000+ yard season was back in 2021 and, in the three seasons since, he has seen his yards per route run average decrease from 1.64 to 1.24 to 0.89, while missing 12 games total across those three seasons. Even as a #3 receiver, he is an underwhelming option.

Cedrick Wilson, Mason Tipton, and Kevin Austin all return as reserves after playing 382 snaps, 357 snaps, and 324 snaps last season and they also have 2024 5th round pick Bub Means, who played 145 snaps as a rookie, but all of them are underwhelming options. Wilson is the most proven and experienced of the bunch, though largely by default. He had a 45/602/6 slash line with 1.74 yards per route run in 2021, but that was his only season above 300 yards receiving in seven seasons in the league, his career yards per route run average is just 1.29, and now he’s heading into his age 30 season and could decline further in 2025.

Meanwhile, Kevin Austin and Mason Tipton are 2024 undrafted free agents who averaged just 0.79 and 0.42 yards per route run respectively as rookies and, while Bub Means was slightly better with a 1.31 yards per route run average as a rookie, it came in very limited playing time, as he was unable to earn a consistent role even in a thin position group. Wilson will likely be the Saints’ #4 receiver and the first one to take over a significant role in case of an injury ahead of him on the depth chart, but that is largely by default and he figures to struggle if forced into that significant role.

With the issues they had at wide receiver in the absence of Olave and Shaheed last season, the Saints ranked dead last in the NFL with just 46.0% of their targets going to wide receivers, while leading the league with 26.1% of their targets going to running backs and ranking 6th with 27.9% of their targets going to tight ends. Their tight ends weren’t necessarily deserving of all those targets though, as Juwan Johnson turned 66 targets into a 50/548/3 slash line with 1.34 yards per route run, Foster Moreau turned 43 targets into a 32/413/5 slash line with 1.43 yards per route run, and Tayson Hill turned 31 targets into a 23/187/0 slash line with 1.68 yards per route run.

All three remain for 2025, but figure to play significantly smaller roles, with their wide receiver group set to be healthier. Hill was the most efficient of the bunch last season, but it came in the smallest role, he has just a 1.30 yards per route run average in his career, and now he’s going into his age 35 season and coming off of a season-ending torn ACL that he suffered in week 13 of last season, so he could miss the start of the season and could easily struggle upon his return.

Juwan Johnson has been their nominal starter for the past three seasons, but he only had slash lines of 42/508/7 and 37/368/4 on averages of 1.39 yards per route run and 1.19 yards per route run in his first two seasons as a starter and, overall, he is a pretty underwhelming starting option. Moreau, meanwhile, has averaged 1.29 yards per route run in six seasons in the league as a part-time player, while maxing out at 420 receiving yards in a season in 2022. It’s not a bad tight end room and at least the Saints won’t need as high of a target share out of them as they had last season, but it’s not a good tight end room either. The Saints’ receiving corps should be significantly improved by the duo of Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed likely being healthier, but the rest of this group is underwhelming at best.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

Feature back Alvin Kamara was also a huge part of this passing game last season, leading the team with 89 targets, turning them into a 68/543/2 slash line and averaging 1.75 yards per route run, 3rd in the NFL among eligible running backs. That was nothing new for Kamara, who has averaged a 72/595/3 slash line on 91 targets with a 1.93 yards per route run average in eight seasons in the league. Even with a healthier wide receiver group this season, Kamara figures to remain heavily involved in the passing game.

Kamara also averaged 4.17 YPC on 228 carries. That was actually his highest YPC average of the past four seasons, a span in which he has averaged just 3.95 YPC, which is a concern as he goes into his age 30 season in 2025, with 2,116 career touches, a common point for running backs to start slowing down significantly. Kamara also actually missed three games with injury last season, which also isn’t new for him, as he hasn’t made it through a season without missing a game since his rookie season in 2017, but he’s only missed 17 total games in eight seasons, so he’s at least avoided any major injuries.

The Saints used a 3rd round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft on Kendre Miller to potentially be Kamara’s long-term replacement, but he has underwhelmed thus far through two seasons in the league, primarily due to injuries, as he has been limited to a 3.80 YPC average on just 80 carries in 14 games. He has at least shown promise as a receiver, averaging 1.49 yards per route run in very limited action. Miller is still only going into his age 23 season, so he could still have a lot of untapped upside if he can stay healthy and he figures to be the clear #2 back in 2025, with Jamaal Williams, who was second on the team with 48 carries last season, no longer on the roster. In a best case scenario, Miller would be an upgrade on Williams (3.42 YPC, 0.74 yards per route run in 2024), capable of spelling Kamara on both running and passing downs without much drop off.

The Saints also used a 6th round pick in this year’s draft on Devin Neal to give themselves additional depth and he could find himself in a role by season’s end if Miller flops or gets hurt again. Additionally, tight end Taysom Hill also sees action at running back, averaging 5.5 carries per game over the past five seasons, including 4.9 per game in eight games last season, though obviously his age and injury recovery complicate matters for him significantly. This isn’t a bad backfield, but Kamara’s age and usage history, as well as backup Kendre Miller being unproven, are both concerns.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The Saints used their first round pick, 9th overall, on Kelvin Banks, who figures to start at tackle for them as a rookie. This is actually the second straight year and their third year out of the past four in which the Saints have used their first round pick on a tackle. Last year’s first round pick, Talise Fuaga, had a decent rookie year with a 65.7 PFF grade in 17 starts and could take a step forward in his second season in the league in 2025. He spent his rookie year at left tackle and could stay there long-term, but it’s also possible the Saints now view Banks as their left tackle and will move Fuaga to the right side to accommodate him.

Meanwhile, Trevor Penning, a first round pick in 2022, will move to left guard from right tackle, with Banks being added. He has been a bust through three seasons in the league, limited to just six nondescript starts in his first two seasons in the league due to a combination of injury and ineffectiveness, before making all 17 starts last season but only being a replacement level starter, with a 60.2 PFF grade. He could still have untapped upside, only in his age 26 season, and a move inside to guard could potentially kickstart his career, but that’s far from a guarantee and it’s also possible that having to learn a new position will do more harm than good for him. 

The Saints also used a first round pick in 2020 on an offensive lineman, taking Cesar Ruiz, who has made 75 starts in five seasons in the league, primarily at right guard. Ruiz has largely been a disappointment as well, finishing below 60 on PFF in each of his first four seasons in the league, before finishing with a career best 67.6 PFF grade in 2024. Ruiz is still only going into his age 26 season and it’s possible he has permanently turned a corner and will remain a capable starter going forward, but he could also regress and, even if he doesn’t, he hasn’t shown a high upside.

The Saints’ best offensive lineman is the only one they didn’t use a first round pick on, center Erik McCoy. A 2nd round pick in 2019, McCoy has finished above 60 on PFF in all six seasons in the league, including four seasons over 70. He was on his way to a career best year in 2024, with a 94.4 PFF grade, but injuries limited him to 293 snaps and seven starts. He probably won’t be quite that good over a full season in 2025, but he did have a 79.4 PFF grade in 17 starts in 2023, his best healthy season, and, if he stays healthy this season, another season like that is very obtainable for him, still only in his age 28 season. Durability is a concern though, as he’s missed at least four games in three of the past four seasons, with 19 games missed total over that stretch.

For depth options, the Saints bring back guard Nick Saldiveri and guard/tackle Landon Young, who made 6 starts and 5 starts respectively last season, and they add guard/tackle Dillon Radunz and guard/center Will Clapp in free agency. Saldiveri was a 4th round pick in 2023, but struggled in the first significant action of his career last season, with a 56.0 PFF grade, while Young is a 2021 6th round pick who has finished below 60 on PFF in all four seasons in the league, across 12 total starts.

Radunz is probably their best reserve, as the 2021 2nd round pick had a 67.2 PFF grade in 11 starts in 2023, but he’s also finished below 60 in his other three seasons in the league, including a 57.0 PFF grade in 15 starts last season, which is why he had to settle for a backup job this off-season. Clapp, meanwhile, has made 22 starts in seven seasons in the league, but has finished below 60 on PFF in all seven of those seasons. This offensive line has upside if their recent high draft picks can play at their best and if center Erik McCoy can stay healthy, but they also have downside if that doesn’t happen, especially given that their depth options are underwhelming.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Saints weren’t quite as bad on defense as they were on offense last season, but they were still below average on this side of the ball, ranking 27th in yards per play allowed and 17th in first down rate allowed, and, unlike on offense, injuries weren’t the problem, as they had the 10th fewest adjusted games lost to injury in the league. The Saints used to have a consistently good defense, but many of their key players have gotten old and declined as a result.

One notable example of that is edge defender Cameron Jordan. Jordan finished above 80 on PFF in seven straight seasons from 2015-2021, but then he fell to 74.5 and 73.5 in 2022 and 2023 and then he fell further to a 57.4 PFF grade across 565 snaps in 2024, both of which were the lowest of his 14-year career. Now going into his age 36 season, Jordan is highly unlikely to bounce back and could continue declining further. 

Jordan will be a reserve behind starters Carl Granderson and Chase Young. Granderson has become arguably the Saints’ best defensive player as other players have dropped off. Over the past three seasons, he has finished with PFF grades of 80.4, 74.1, and 79.7, first on a snap count of 480 in a part time role in 2022, before seeing that snap count jump significantly to 874 in 2023 and 825 in 2024. He’s a much better run defender than pass rusher, but has also added 19.5 sacks, 24 hits, and a 10.9% pressure rate in 50 games over the past three seasons. Still in his late prime in his age 29 season, he should continue playing at a similar level in 2025.

Chase Young, meanwhile, was the Saints’ best edge rusher, with 5.5 sacks, 13 hits, and a 13.7% pressure rate last season and he now has 22 sacks, 35 hits, and a 11.4% pressure rate in 60 career games, since being selected 2nd overall by the Commanders in 2020. Young fell below 70 on PFF for the first time in his career last season, but that was because his run defense fell below 60 for the first time in his career. Still only in his age 26 season, he could easily bounce back as a run defender in 2025, while continuing to be an above average pass rusher. Injuries were a big concern for Young earlier in his career, as he played just 12 games between 2021-2022, but that was primarily because of one bad knee injury and he has missed just one game over the past two seasons, so he has seemingly put his injury history behind him. 

The Saints did use multiple high draft picks in recent drafts trying to find a successor for Cameron Jordan, taking Payton Turner in the first round in 2021 and Isaiah Foskey in the second round in 2023, but neither of those panned out. Turner played just 675 snaps in four seasons with the Saints, before signing with the Cowboys this off-season, after a 2024 season in which he played a career high 335 snaps, but finished with just a 54.0 PFF grade. 

Meanwhile, Isaiah Foskey remains on the roster, but has played just 149 nondescript snaps in two seasons in the league. With Turner gone and Jordan continuing to age, Foskey has the opportunity to play a much bigger snap count in 2025 and he still has theoretical upside, only in his age 25 season, but he could easily struggle in an expanded role. The Saints have a solid starting duo of Carl Granderson and Chase Young, but questionable depth, with Cameron Jordan going into his age 36 season and Isaiah Foskey showing next to nothing through two seasons in the league.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The interior defender position was a big position of weakness last season, with the only player who finished above 60 on PFF being a player who played just 21 snaps. Bryan Bresee was a first round pick in 2023 and has proven himself as a solid interior pass rusher, with 12 sacks, 12 hits, and a 8.0% pressure rate in 34 career games, but his terrible run defense has kept him below 60 overall on PFF in both seasons. He’s only going into his age 24 season and has the upside to get better as a run defender and become a solid all-around player, but there is no guarantee that happens in 2025.

The Saints traded for Davon Godchaux to try to help fix the problem at the interior defender position, but he has finished below 60 on PFF in three straight seasons and now is going into his age 31 season, so his best days are likely behind him and it’s unlikely he will be much help. Godchaux has never been a good pass rusher, with a pressure rate of 4.1% in his career and his run defense has also fallen off in recent years. He’s played an average of 666 snaps over the past four seasons respectively and will likely continue playing a relatively high snap count with his new team, but those are unlikely to be good snaps. 

Holdovers Khalen Saunders (460 snaps) and Nathan Shephard (567 snaps) will continue playing a role, albeit likely a smaller role with Godchaux being added. Saunders is relatively young, in his age 29 season, and has some bounce back potential, with PFF grades of 60.2 and 61.6 on snap counts of 421 and 533 in 2022 and 2023 respectively, before falling to a 54.7 PFF grade in 2024, but he’s unlikely to be anything more than a marginal rotational player. Shepherd, meanwhile, had some solid years earlier in his career, but he has received PFF grades of 47.5 and 43.4 over the past two seasons and now is heading into his age 32 season, so he will likely continue struggling in a significant way, even in a reduced role in 2025. Overall, this is still a very underwhelming interior defender group.

Grade: C

Linebackers

Another aging player on this defense is linebacker Demario Davis, who is heading into his age 36 season. Davis still had a 73.2 PFF grade in an every down role (1,090 snaps) last season, but that was actually his worst single season grade since 2016 and he could decline further in 2025, perhaps significantly further, given his age. He will continue starting next to 2021 2nd round pick Pete Werner, who has been a solid, but unspectacular player through four seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 79.9, 64.7, 57.5, and 69.0 on snap counts of 394, 596, 919, and 731 respectively. He’s never made it through a season without getting hurt, missing 12 games in total in four seasons in the league, so he will likely miss more time this season, but, when on the field, I would expect him to continue being a solid, but unspectacular every down player.

Depth was an issue at linebacker for the Saints in 2024, as their top-2 reserves Willie Gay (277 snaps) and Anfernee Orji (147 snaps) received PFF grades of 44.1 and 55.2 respectively. Neither were retained for 2025, but the alternatives are not better, as the Saints’ best reserve options are 2022 5th round pick D’Marco Jackson, who has played just 76 snaps in three seasons in the league, and 4th round rookie Danny Stutsman. Davis and Werner could be an above average every down linebacker duo, but their depth is a concern, given Davis’ age and Werner’s injury history.

Grade: B

Secondary

The Saints made a big move towards rebuilding midway through the 2024 season when they traded long-time top cornerback Marshon Lattimore to the Commanders for a package centered around a 3rd round pick. It’s a trade that makes sense in the long-term, but Lattimore led all Saints cornerbacks with a 71.3 PFF grade through seven seasons in the league and they don’t have a clear #1 cornerback to replace him on the roster.

Kool-Aid McKinstry probably has the highest upside of the group, as the 2024 2nd round pick had a 66.1 PFF grade across 680 snaps in 14 games as a rookie and could easily take a step forward in his second season in the league in 2025. Paulson Adebo also had a decent season in 2024 with a 63.3 PFF grade, but he was limited to 436 snaps in 7 games by injury and was not retained this off-season, being replaced by free agent addition Isaac Yiadom. Yiadom had a 81.1 PFF grade in 2023, but it came across just 517 snaps in 17 games and that looks like a complete fluke, as he’s never finished above 60 on PFF in any of his other six seasons in the league, including a 59.5 PFF grade in across 488 snaps in 2024. He’ll probably start for the Saints in 2025, but primarily due to the lack of a better option and he will likely struggle.

Alontae Taylor led the position group with 1,075 snaps, but he struggled mightily with a 45.0 PFF grade, finishing 124th worst among 128 eligible cornerbacks on PFF and allowing 998 receiving yards, most in the league among cornerbacks by a wide margin, with no one else surpassing 806 receiving yards allowed. Taylor was a 2nd round pick in 2022, but has not lived up to his draft slot, also struggling in his first two seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 54.5 and 45.7 on snap counts of 663 and 950. Taylor is already going into his age 27 season, so he is running out of time to make good on his upside and is likely to continue struggling, perhaps significantly, in 2025.  Like Yiadom, Taylor will probably have to start in 2025, due to the lack of good alternatives. 

The biggest competition the Saints have for Taylor and Yiadom is veteran Ugo Amadi and 4th round rookie Quincy Riley. Amadi has only played more than 500 snaps three times in six seasons in the league and finished below 60 on PFF in two of those three seasons, including a 43.7 PFF grade in 2021, when he played a career high 692 snaps. Riley, meanwhile, is probably too raw to contribute in a significant positive way as a rookie. Outside of Kool-Aid McKinstry, who is still young and unproven, this is a very underwhelming cornerback group.

Things are better at safety, but the Saints have another aging starter there, with Tyrann Mathieu going into his age 33 season and coming off of a career worst 60.5 PFF grade in 2024. He had a 81.3 PFF grade as recently as 2023, but it seems highly unlikely he will bounce back anywhere near to that level in 2025, given his age, and he could easily decline further. The biggest highlight of this secondary is Justin Reid, who was added as a free agent on a 3-year, 31.5 million dollar deal this off-season, though he’s the highlight largely by default.

Reid had a 76.9 PFF grade last season, though that was a career best year. The 7-year veteran has finished above 70 on PFF in four of those seasons and is still only going into his age 28 season, so he could easily have another above average season in 2025, but he’s also been pretty consistent in his career, receiving PFF grades of 50.9, 60.7, and 57.7 in 2020, 2021, and 2023 respectively, so he could regress. The Saints also have Jordan Howden, a 2023 5th round pick, as the third safety and he’s a great reserve option, having received PFF grades of 67.0 and 67.9 on snap counts of 569 and 550 over the past two seasons respectively. The Saints’ safeties are not bad, but don’t totally make up for the Saints’ issues at cornerback.

Grade: B-

Kickers

A 2023 undrafted free agent, Blake Grupe has been the Saints’ kicker for the past two seasons and has been about a league average kicker, costing the Saints 2.98 points below average as a rookie and accounting for 2.48 points above average in his second season in the league last year. He will probably keep the kicker job for 2025, but the Saints do have some competition for him in Charlie Smyth, a former European soccer player who spent last season on the Saints practice squad. Most likely, Grupe will be the Saints’ kicker again this season and will remain decent, but unspectacular.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Saints are in about as bad of a position as a team can be, as a result of years of borrowing future cap space to remain relevant, coupled with years of underwhelming drafts. The result is that, not only do the Saints have arguably the worst roster in the NFL, but they also have the 4th oldest roster and they don’t have any financial flexibility coming next off-season, already about 15.8 million over the 2026 cap. This looks like it will require a multi-year rebuild at the very least and the Saints haven’t even really started the rebuilding process. The good news is they figure to be in contention for the #1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, which will jump start that rebuild.

Update: It is a bad sign for Tyler Shough’s long-term prospects that he couldn’t beat out Spencer Rattler for the starting job.

Prediction: 1-16, 4th in NFC South

Quarterback

When long-time Saints quarterback and future Hall of Famer Drew Brees retired following the 2020 season, the Saints were left in a tough situation. They had consistently borrowed future cap space to keep as much talent around Brees as possible in his later years, leading to a league best 49-15 regular season record from 2017-2020, but just three playoff victories and no Super Bowl appearances. Without Brees, the Saints could have opted to blow it up, go through a couple tough years, and reset their cap for the future. 

Instead, they opted to continue kicking the can down the road on their cap issues, in an attempt to remain relevant in the short-term, continuing to borrow future cap space. Now with three seasons in the books without Brees, that appears to have been the wrong choice. They haven’t been bad the past three seasons, but they haven’t been good either, combining for a 25-24 record with no playoff appearances and the future doesn’t look promising. 

The Saints had the 3rd oldest roster in the league in 2023, currently have the 6th oldest roster in the league heading into 2024, and are projected to be almost 100 million dollars over the cap in 2025, which will get increasingly difficult to continue kicking down the road, severely limiting their ability to field a talented roster in the future, especially as their core continues to age. It hasn’t helped that their recent drafts have not been good, especially at the top. Of the seven players they selected in the top-50 from 2020-2023, just one of them, wide receiver Chris Olave, played significant snaps in 2023 and finished above average on PFF. As a result of that, the Saints don’t have much in the way of promising young talent on cheap rookie contracts.

The Saints’ middling performance over the past few years has also kept them out of position to take a potential franchise quarterback atop the draft. Their initial attempts to replace Brees with cheaper veterans like Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton, and Trevor Siemian failed and, without the ability to add draft a promising quarterback, the Saints instead gave a big contract to aging veteran Derek Carr, who heads into his age 33 season in 2024, the second season of a 4-year, 150 million dollar deal.

Carr is not a bad quarterback, completing 64.9% of his passes for an average of 7.10 YPA, 242 touchdowns, and 107 interceptions in 159 starts in 10 seasons in the league, including 68.4% completion, 7.08 YPA, 25 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions in 17 starts in 2023, but he’s not the kind of quarterback that can elevate a middling roster and he’s not getting any younger either, so it’s possible his best days are behind him at this point. The Saints have a pair of young quarterbacks behind him on the depth chart, 2023 4th round pick Jake Haener, who didn’t play a snap as a rookie, and 2024 5th round pick Spencer Rattler, but neither was remotely a high draft pick and it remains to be seen if either of them can even develop into a quality backup, let alone a potential future starter. Overall, it looks like the Saints are set for another season of middling at best play in 2024, with no long-term direction.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

One of the Saints’ high draft picks that hasn’t yet lived up to their draft slot in recent years is left tackle Trevor Penning, who has been limited to 541 snaps and six starts in two seasons since going 19th overall in the 2022 NFL Draft, due to a combination of poor performance and injury. In fact, he’s been so underwhelming that the Saints are seemingly giving up on him already, using the 14th overall pick in this year’s draft on Taliese Fuaga. It wouldn’t be hard for Fuaga to be an upgrade on Andrus Peat, who had a 60.2 PFF grade as the Saints’ primary left tackle last season, before signing with the Raiders this off-season, but Fuaga is still just a rookie and could have growing pains in year one.

It’s possible Penning could still earn a starting job, either at left tackle, with Fuaga moving to guard, which he has the versatility to play, or Penning could potentially move to guard himself, to replace the now retired James Hurst, who had a 58.7 PFF grade in 15 starts last season. Penning has a lot of talent and is still only going into his age 25 season, so it’s too soon to completely write him off, but it’s very possible he’d continue struggling even if he did win a starting job and it’s more likely the Saints view him as the swing tackle now, behind Fuaga and right tackle Ryan Ramczyk. 

Ramczyk has been a talented starter for years, finishing above 70 on PFF in all seven seasons in the league, with five seasons over 80, but, like most of the Saints’ talented players, he’s getting up there in age, going into his age 30 season in 2024 and it’s possible he’s already started to decline, as his 73.5 PFF grade in 2023 was a career worst. He would be declining from a high base point and he’s not totally over the hill yet, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if his best days were behind him at this point or if he continued declining.

If Penning doesn’t start, the left guard job will likely go to 2023 4th round pick Nick Saldeveri, who played just 18 snaps as a rookie, or mediocre veteran Lucas Patrick, who is in his age 31 season and has finished below 60 on PFF in all seven seasons in the league, including a 50.5 PFF grade in 15 starts last season. Both Saldeveri and Patrick would almost definitely struggle as starters in 2024 and it’s possible both of them, along with possibly Penning, all see starts as the Saints try to find an answer at the position, an answer that’s probably not on the roster.

Right guard Cesar Ruiz is another recent high draft pick that hasn’t really panned out. Ruiz has started 56 of the 62 games he’s played since the Saints selected him 24th overall in 2020, but he’s finished in the 50s on PFF in all four seasons, including a career worst 51.2 PFF grade in 16 starts last season. The Saints didn’t pick up his 5th year option for 2024, but they did extend him on a 4-year, 44 million dollar deal at the beginning of last season, which seems like an overpay, given that he’s the 17th highest paid guard in the league in terms of average annual salary. He’s still only in his age 25 season and could have untapped potential, but he also could continue struggling.

Center Erik McCoy is a highlight on this offensive line, as the 2019 2nd round pick has finished above 60 on PFF in all five seasons in the league (74 starts), including three seasons above 70. His 79.4 PFF grade in 2023 was a career best and he’s not necessarily going to be that good again in 2024, but he’s still only in his age 27 season, so he’s very much in the prime of his career, and he should remain at least an above average starter. The Saints have a couple bright spots on the offensive line in Erik McCoy and Ryan Ramczyk, but the latter is going into his 30s, and the rest of the group is underwhelming, with a rookie left tackle and likely below average starters at both guard positions.

Update: Ramczyk is not expected to play this season and may retire because of a nagging knee injury. This will hurt the Saints significantly and hurts their already underwhelming projection overall and on the offensive line, as Ramczyk was one of their best players and probably their best offensive lineman and now the Saints will have to start Trevor Penning in his absence.

Grade: C+

Receiving Corps

As I mentioned, wide receiver Chris Olave is the only high draft pick the Saints have made in the past few years that has panned out. Luckily, the 2022 #11 overall pick has panned out in a big way, with slash lines of 87/1123/5 and 72/1044/4 and a combined 2.23 yards per route run average over his first two seasons in the league. Still only going into his age 24 season, Olave’s best days could still be ahead of him and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if 2024 was his best season yet.

The Saints also found a steal in the 2022 draft with undrafted free agent Rashid Shaheed. Shaheed flashed potential as a rookie with a 28/487/2 slash line and a 2.59 yards per route run average in a limited role. He wasn’t able to keep up that level of efficiency in a starting role in 2022, but he still had a solid season with a 46/719/5 slash line and a 1.67 yards per route run. He still only played 604 snaps last season, 40.3 snaps per game in 15 games, which was actually behind Michael Thomas, who averaged 49.0 snaps per game in 10 games. In five games when Thomas was out and Shaheed played, Shaheed averaged 42.8 snaps per game and had a 18/209/2 slash line, 61/711/7 over a 17-game season. With Thomas no longer with the team, Shaheed is likely to see a higher snap count and more receiving production in 2024.

Thomas only averaged 1.38 yards per route run last season with a 39/448/1 slash line, so he won’t be missed too much, but the Saints don’t have a good replacement for him. The third receiver job will likely go to 2023 6th round pick AT Perry, who had a 12/246/4 slash line and a 1.18 yards per route run average as a rookie, or Cedrick Wilson, a veteran who has been a mediocre reserve for most of his career, averaging 1.35 yards per route run and only surpassing 300 yards receiving once in six seasons in the league. Both are likely to be underwhelming options, even if they ultimately end up splitting snaps. The Saints also used a 5th round pick in this year’s draft on Bub Means, who could work his way into a role down the stretch, though he would likely also struggle.

At tight end, Juwan Johnson (555 snaps), Foster Moreau (549 snaps), and Taysom Hill (425 snaps) all played roles last season and should play similar roles in 2023. Johnson was their primary receiving tight end, leading all Saints tight ends in catches, yards, and touchdowns. He only had a 37/368/4 slash line with a 1.19 yards per route run average though, so he’s a pretty underwhelming option. He did have a better receiving year in 2022, with a 42/508/7 slash line and a 1.39 yards per route run average, so he could be better in 2024 than he was in 2023, but the 2020 undrafted free agent has been underwhelming for most of his career, with a career 1.17 yards per route run average. The undersized 6-4 231 pounder is also a poor blocker.

Tayson Hill also primarily played in passing situations, although he’s a unique player. Not only did he have a 33/291/2 slash line with a 1.30 yards per route run average as a receiver, but he also carried the ball 81 times for 401 yards and 4 touchdowns (4.95 YPC) and threw 11 passes, completing 6 of them for 83 yards and a touchdown. Hill should have a similar role in 2024. The ultimate hybrid player throughout his career, Hill has 76 catches, 398 carries, and 298 pass attempts in the past six seasons, while averaging 346 snaps per season. Hill is now going into his age 34 season, so his athleticism could start to decline, but he should still be a useful situational player.

Foster Moreau, meanwhile, is mostly a blocking specialist, finishing the 2023 season with just a 21/193/1 slash line and a 1.25 yards per route run average. Moreau has mostly been a blocking specialist in five seasons in the league, but he’s a mediocre all-around tight end, averaging 1.25 yards per route run and mostly receiving mediocre run blocking grades. The Saints have a good #1 receiver in Chris Olave and a promising #2 receiver in Rashid Shaheed, but this is a top heavy receiving corps, with underwhelming tight end options and a lack of wide receiver depth.

Grade: B

Running Backs

Feature back Alvin Kamara is used heavily in the passing game as well, as he had 86 targets, a 75/466/1 slash line, and a 1.73 yards per route run average in just 13 games last season. He’s had similar passing game usage throughout his career, averaging 91 targets and a 72/603/3 slash line per season in seven seasons in the league, with a career 1.96 yards per route run average. He also has 1,315 carries for 5,829 yards and 54 touchdowns (4.43 YPC) as a runner in his career.

That being said, Kamara averaged a career low 3.86 YPC on 180 carries last season though, along with a career low 2.51 yards per carry after contact, a career low 5.42 yards per target, and a career low 6.21 yards per catch, and now he heads into his age 29 season with 1,820 career touches, which is a common time for running backs to slow down significantly, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him continue to have underwhelming averages. Like many of the Saints’ top players, Kamara is getting up there in age and could be past his prime.

The Saints used a third round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft on a potential future replacement for Kamara in Kendre Miller. Miller was 4th on the team in carries as a rookie with just 41, behind Kamara, Jamaal Williams, and Taysom Hill, but Miller was limited to 8 games by injuries and, now healthier and in his second season in the league, he should see an expanded role, probably at the expense of Williams, who averaged just 2.89 YPC to Miller’s 3.80 YPC in 2023. Miller also flashed potential as a pass catcher with a 10/117/0 slash line and a 2.17 yards per route run average and he could have an expanded role as a receiver as well in 2024.

Jamaal Williams has been better in the past than he was last season, but his career average is just 3.88 YPC on 1,021 carries and he’s an underwhelming pass catcher, with a career average of 1.02 yards per route run. He has a solid 50.4% carry success rate in his career, but has managed just 21 carries over 15+ yards in his career, so he’s best as a short yardage specialist. He’s also going into his age 29 season now and his best days could be behind him. If it wasn’t for his 3.85 million dollar salary being guaranteed, the Saints likely would have moved on from him this off-season. This isn’t a bad backfield, but feature back Alvin Kamara seems to be slowing down, Jamaal Williams is just a short yardage specialist, and promising young running back Kendre Miller is still inexperienced.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Saints also have many aging key players on defense. Edge defender Cameron Jordan has been one of their best defensive players for years and is coming off of a solid 2023 season in which he had a 73.5 PFF grade on 770 snaps, but he’s now going into his age 35 season and his 2023 PFF grade was his lowest since 2014. In his prime from 2015-2021, Jordan exceeded 80 on PFF in all seven seasons, excelling against the run and adding 78 sacks, 80 hits, and a 11.9% pressure rate in 112 games, but he hasn’t been the same player the past two seasons. His run defense has remained impressive, but he has managed just 10.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 8.9% pressure rate in 33 games. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him decline even further in 2024, both as a run stopper and a pass rusher, given his advanced age.

Fellow starter Carl Granderson is at least in his prime in his age 28 season, but he’s also a better run stopper than pass rusher. The 2019 undrafted free agent took a few years to develop, before posting a 80.4 PFF grade on 480 snaps in 2022 and a 74.1 PFF grade on 874 snaps in 2023, but he has totaled just 14 sacks, 15 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate in 33 games over those two seasons. He would be best as a pure base package player who plays sparingly in obvious passing situations.

With Jordan aging and Granderson being a middling at best pass rusher, the Saints upgraded this position group with the one major free agent signing they could afford this off-season, bringing in Chase Young on a 1-year, 13 million dollar deal. Young is only in his age 25 season and was the #2 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, but he’s consistently had durability problems, missing 24 games in four seasons in the league, while never once playing in every game, which is why his 5th year option was declined and he hit free agency this off-season. 

Young has been effective when on the field, exceeding 70 on PFF in all four seasons in the league, playing the run at a high level and adding 16.5 sacks, 21 hits, and a 10.5% pressure rate in 43 games, and he has a lot of upside if he can stay healthy for a whole season and put it all together, but because he’s only on a one-year deal, his contract doesn’t have any long-term upside. Even if he plays well this season, it will be for a Saints team that is unlikely to go on a deep playoff run and then the Saints would have to pay a higher price to keep him long-term next off-season, one they’re highly unlikely to be able to afford, given their cap situation. 

The Saints have attempted to find a long-term replacement for Jordan in the draft, using a 2021 1st round pick on Payton Turner and a 2023 2nd round pick on Isaiah Foskey, but both have been very underwhelming thus far in their careers. Turner has played just 340 snaps in three seasons in the league, due to a combination of injuries and ineffectiveness, while Foskey was unable to earn a role as a rookie, playing just 84 nondescript snaps. Foskey is still only going in his second season in the league and could take a step forward in year two and Turner may still have some theoretical upside as well, but Turner is running out of time to make good on that upside and both would need to take a big step forward to even be useful rotational players in 2024.

With Young being added to the mix this off-season, Turner and Foskey will compete for deep reserve roles with veteran Tanoh Kpassagnon, who was decently effective on a snap count of 406 in 2023, receiving a 67.7 PFF grade and totaling 3.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 12.9% pressure rate as a pass rusher. However, that was the first season of his 7-year veteran that he received a grade above 60 from PFF and exceeded 400 snaps played in the same season and he now heads into his age 30 season, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he wasn’t as effective in 2024 as he was last season. This is actually a pretty strong position group overall, but Cameron Jordan is aging, Chase Young is injury prone, Carl Granderson is much better against the run than as a pass rusher, and none of their depth options are guaranteed to be effective.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

Another recent high draft pick that hasn’t panned out yet for the Saints is interior defender Bryan Bresee, a first round pick in 2023. Bresee was a solid pass rusher as a rookie with 4.5 sacks, 4 hits, and a 8.0% pressure rate, but he was horrendous against the run and, as a result, had an overall grade of 45.5 from PFF across 539 total snaps. Breese is still only going into his second season in the league and has plenty of time to make good on his upside, but he would need to take a big step forward against the run in 2024 to be a reliable starter.

Nathan Shepherd also struggled in 2023, with a 47.5 PFF grade on 593 snaps. That’s not a surprise, as that was a career high in snaps for the 6-year veteran. Shepherd has been better in the past in smaller roles, but the Saints don’t have much of a choice but to give him a big role again in 2024 and, on top of that, he’s now going into his age 31 season, so it would be a surprise if he didn’t continue struggling this season. He wasn’t a bad pass rusher with 3 sacks, 5 hits, and a 8.0% pressure rate last season, but, like Bresee, he also struggled mightily against the run.

Khalen Saunders was the Saints’ best all-around interior defender by default last season, with a 61.6 PFF grade on 522 snaps, holding up decently against the run and adding a 5.7% pressure rate as a pass rusher. His 2023 performance wasn’t bad, but it’s concerning when he’s your best interior defender. A 3rd round pick in 2019 by the Chiefs, Saunders took a few years to develop, but he also had a 60.2 PFF grade on 421 snaps in 2022 and he’s only in his age 28 season, so he should continue being a capable all-around player in 2024.

Depth behind the Saints’ top-3 interior defenders is also a big concern. The Saints used a 6th round pick in this year’s draft on Khristian Boyd, but he would almost definitely struggle if he played a significant rookie year role. They also added veteran Kendal Vickers in free agency, but he’s played just 602 snaps in the past four seasons, while finishing below 50 on PFF in all four seasons. With more depth on the edge than the interior, the Saints will probably use three defensive ends together in sub packages frequently, with one of them lined up in the interior. Unless they get a breakout year from 2023 1st round Bryan Breese, expect the Saints’ interior defender group to be very underwhelming in 2024.

Grade: C

Linebackers

Top linebacker Demario Davis is also getting up there in age, going into his age 35 season. He hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet, with a 89.6 PFF grade across 1,074 snaps in 2024, the second best season-long PFF grade of his career and his seventh straight season over 70, but he could decline significantly at any point even his advanced age and if it happens in 2024 that would be a big blow to this defense. Pete Werner was the Saints’ other every down linebacker in 2023, but he wasn’t nearly as good, with a 57.5 PFF grade across 919 snaps.

A 2021 2nd round pick, Werner showed promise in smaller roles in his first two seasons in the league, with a 79.9 PFF grade across 394 snaps as a rookie and a 64.7 PFF grade across 596 snaps in 2022, but he couldn’t translate that to a bigger role in 2023. He’s only going into his age 25 season though, so he could still have untapped upside and take a step forward in his fourth season in the league in 2024. With Demario Davis likely to regress at least somewhat, the Saints will need Werner to step up to compensate, but that’s not a guarantee.

The Saints signed Willie Gay to a 1-year, 3 million dollar deal in free agency this off-season to provide competition for Werner or to serve as the third linebacker in base packages if Werner keeps his job. A 3rd round pick in 2020, Gay has shown some promise in his career, but he’s also finished below 60 on PFF in two of four seasons in the league, while maxing out at 625 snaps in a season and averaging 484 snaps per season. He’s still only in his age 26 season and could have untapped upside, but he’s coming off of a 2023 season in which he had a 53.3 PFF grade across his career high in snaps, which is why he had to settle for a cheap one-year deal in free agency.  

The Saints also drafted Jaylan Ford in the 5th round of this year’s draft to give them more depth and a potential long-term successor for Davis, but he’s unlikely to see many snaps as a rookie and would likely struggle if he did. Demario Davis significantly elevates an otherwise middling linebacking corps, with both Pete Werner and Willie Gay being underwhelming options, but Davis’ age is becoming a big concern and the Saints would be in trouble defensively if he declined significantly this season.

Grade: B+

Secondary

Safety Tyrann Mathieu is another talented player the Saints have who is getting up there in age, going into his age 32 season. He had a 81.3 PFF grade in 17 starts last season, his 11th straight season above 60 on PFF and his 7th season above 70, but that was the third best single season grade of his career and it would be a surprise if he was able to repeat that again in 2024, given his age. He should still remain at least an above average starter even if he does decline, but any noticeable decline from him would be a hit to this secondary and his age is becoming a significant concern.

Mathieu will start next to Jordan Howden, who was decent in 567 snaps (7 starts) in 2023, with a 67.0 PFF grade, despite being just a 5th round rookie. Marcus Maye was supposed to be their primary starter opposite Mathieu last season, but he was limited to 7 games by injuries and suspension and he was mediocre anyway, with a 57.6 PFF grade. With Maye gone, the only real competition Howden has for a starting job is Johnathan Abram, but Abram is probably not a real candidate to start. 

Abram was a first round pick by the Raiders in 2019, but he’s been a major bust, finishing below 60 on PFF in all five seasons in the league, including a 57.1 PFF grade in just 209 snaps last season. Now in his age 28 season, it’s unlikely Abram has any untapped upside, so he will remain a backup caliber player and a mediocre one at that. Howden is still a projection to being a season-long starter and it’s possible he regresses and shows why he wasn’t a high draft pick, but he’s the best option the Saints have opposite Mathieu.

At cornerback, Marshon Lattimore remains their de facto #1 cornerback. He’s relatively young for a core player on this team, only in his age 28 season, but he’s had a lot of injuries in his career, missing 25 games in seven seasons in the league, including 17 over the past two seasons combined, and those injuries might have permanently sapped his abilities somewhat. He finished above 70 on PFF in three of his first five seasons in the league, but he’s fallen to 64.7 and 67.4 over the past two seasons respectively. He’s young enough that he has bounce back potential in 2024 if he can stay healthy and if injuries haven’t permanently sapped his abilities, but those are big ifs, so it’s very possible he remains a decent, but unspectacular starter who is likely to miss significant time at some point.

Fortunately, Isaac Yiadom and Paulson Adebo had impressive seasons last year to make up for Lattimore’s injuries and regression. Yiadom had an 81.1 PFF grade across 517 snaps, while Adebo had a 78.6 PFF grade across 948 snaps. Yiadom is no longer with the team though, signing with the 49ers in free agency, while Adebo is a one-year wonder who could regress. Adebo was a 3rd round pick in 2021 and is only going into his age 25 season, so he could have permanently turned a corner and will remain an above average starter, but he struggled with PFF grades of 60.3 and 49.1 across snap counts of 851 and 814 respectively in his first two seasons in the league and, even if he doesn’t completely regress to that level, he might not be as good in 2024 as he was in 2023.

Lattimore and Adebo are likely locked into starting roles, leaving the third cornerback job to either Alontae Taylor or second round rookie Kool-Aid McKinstry. Taylor was a second round pick back in 2022, but he’s another recent high draft pick of the Saints who has yet to pan out, receiving PFF grades of 54.5 and 45.7 across snap counts of 663 and 950 respectively in his first two seasons in the league. He still has time to develop, but he has a long way to go to even be a decent third cornerback and the Saints seem to be getting impatient with him, taking McKinstry as a potential alternative. McKinstry could have growing pains as a rookie, but still might be the favorite for the #3 cornerback job. Given Lattimore’s injury history though, it’s likely both Taylor and McKinstry make starts at some point this season. Overall, this isn’t a bad secondary, but they have some concerns.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Saints have been a middling team over the past few seasons and this year they might not even be that good because they haven’t drafted well in recent years and, as a result, most of their top players are getting up there in age. Their schedule and division should also be tougher after facing one of the easiest schedules and playing in the weakest division in the league a year ago. They should have gone through a complete rebuild after Drew Brees retired, but instead they are stuck in NFL purgatory with no clear way to get any better long-term, given their lack of long-term financial flexibility. Like with every team, I’ll have a final prediction for the Saints after I finish all of my previews.

Update: The Saints have a relatively easy schedule, but their roster got significantly weaker when they lost Ryan Ramczyk for the season with injury.

Prediction: 7-10, 2nd in NFC South

Quarterback

Two off-seasons ago, the Saints lost quarterback Drew Brees to retirement, ending an era of Hall of Fame caliber quarterback play under center. The Saints had been aggressive with the salary cap for years to try to maximize their championship window before Brees called it quits and, while it didn’t result in a Super Bowl victory, it did result in the Saints having the NFL’s best record across the final four seasons of Brees’ career at 49-15. When Brees retired, it seemed likely that the Saints would go through a full rebuild to try to clear up cap space long-term to try to be competitive again in a couple years. Instead, however, they have doubled down on most of their existing roster, even without Brees, continuing to aggressively borrow against the future cap, to the point where the Saints are already about 77 million above next year’s cap.

This off-season, part of the Saints’ aggressive strategy included adding a new quarterback on a big contract, signing top free agent quarterback Derek Carr to a 4-year, 150 million dollar deal that makes him the 12th highest paid quarterback in the NFL in terms of average annual salary. Carr is not a bad starting quarterback, but it’s hard to justify him being paid at that level and I’m not even sure he’s a significant upgrade over the Jameis Winston/Andy Dalton combination the Saints had last season, which had a combined QB rating of 93.6, higher than Carr’s career average of 91.8 and significantly higher than the 86.3 Carr had last season. 

Dalton in particular started most of the games for the Saints last season (14) and played at a pretty high level, with a 95.2 QB rating and a 82.1 PFF grade, a grade higher than Carr has had in all but two of his ten seasons in the league. Carr could still be an upgrade under center for the Saints, but probably not by a significant enough amount to justify the huge payday he got, which the Saints could have used on the rest of this roster or used to help their long-term financial situation. 

Dalton is gone, but Winston remains with the team on a 1-year, 4 million dollar deal and will settle in as the backup, after an unsuccessful attempt to establish himself as the starter over the past two seasons. Injuries were a big part of the problem, as he made just 10 starts total, but Dalton ultimately outplayed him last season to keep the job after Winston was healthy again and Winston has just a 87.5 career QB rating overall, so it’s not a surprise he had to settle for a backup job this off-season. He’ll be one of the better backups in the league though and, while Carr is overpaid, he’s not a bad starting option, so this is at least a decent quarterback room, with 4th round pick Jake Haener also added this off-season as a potential long-term backup option.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

One player the Saints could have moved on from this off-season was wide receiver Michael Thomas, but the Saints opted to bring him back on a reduced, but fully guaranteed 1-year, 10 million contract. Thomas had previously been on a 5-year, 96.25 million dollar deal that began during the 2020 season, after the end of the 2016 2nd round pick’s rookie contract, but because of injuries Thomas has played just ten games in the three seasons since the extension began, with just three of those games coming in the past two seasons, and has been a shelf of his former self even when he has played, with just 56 catches for 609 yards and 3 touchdowns in those 10 games. That’s not terrible, but this coming is from a player who averaged a 118/1378/8 slash line per season in his first four seasons in the league, maxing out at 149/1725/9 in 2019, his last healthy season. 

Thomas is now going into his age 30 season with his last healthy season being four years ago, so his best days are almost definitely behind him, especially without Drew Brees to throw him the ball, but he still could be a useful pass catcher for this offense if healthy. The Saints won’t need him to be their #1 receiver anymore anyway, having found a new one in the first round of last year’s draft, where they took wide receiver Chris Olave, whose 72/1042/4 slash line as a rookie made him a candidate for Offensive Rookie of the Year. 

Olave was even better than that suggests, as he wasn’t even an every down player, seeing just 607 snaps in 15 games (40.5 snaps per game). Olave was very efficient with the limited playing time he did get, as his 2.42 yards per route run average ranked 7th in the league among wide receivers, while his 82.5 PFF grade ranked 14th. Olave should play a bigger role in year two and become even more productive as a result. He has a great chance to take a step forward and prove himself as one of the better wide receivers in the league in year two and beyond.

Olave’s performance isn’t that surprising considering where the Saints drafted him, but they also got a surprisingly impressive rookie year performance from undrafted free agent Rashid Shaheed. Shaheed was originally brought in to be a return man, but he ended up playing 298 snaps on offense and showed his explosiveness as a pass catcher, with a 28/488/2 slash line despite minimal playing time, averaging 2.59 yards per route run on the season, as well as 17.4 yards per catch, 14.4 yards per target, and 6.2 yards per catch after catch. He also showed his abilities in the open field on the ground with 57 yards and a touchdown on four carries. 

Of the snaps Shaheed played, 253 of them came in week 11 or later as he started to get more significant playing time down the stretch and, overall, he finished with a 80.8 overall grade on PFF, impressive even if it was in limited action. In the 7 games he played in week 11 or later, Shaheed had a 23/384/1 slash line, good for 56/933/2 extrapolated across 17 games, despite still only being a part-time player (36.1 snaps per game played). 

The Saints didn’t bring back Jarvis Landry (301 snaps) and Marquez Callaway (397 snaps) this off-season, so Shaheed doesn’t have much competition for the #3 wide receiver job outside of holdover Tre’Quan Smith (403 snaps), who will likely continue to have at least some role, but who probably will be behind Shaheed on the depth chart. Shaheed could prove to be a fluke that doesn’t translate to a larger role, but, even as a recent undrafted free agent, he has a lot of potential. 

Smith, on the other hand, was a 3rd round pick in 2018 and flashed some potential as a rookie, with 1.34 yards per route run, but that fell to 0.82 and 1.12 the next two seasons and, while it increased to 1.25 in 2021 and a career best 1.56 last season, he never became more than a part-time player (career high 672 snaps in 2020) and that will likely remain the case in 2023, as Shaheed is a much higher upside option. Smith is still only going into his age 27 season and isn’t a bad 4th receiver and reserve option, but he’s unlikely to be that productive even if injuries strike ahead of him on the depth chart and give him an opportunity to play more.

The Saints got decent production from their tight ends last season, with Adam Trautman averaging 1.49 yards per route run and Juwan Johnson averaging 1.39 yards per route run. Johnson did it in a much bigger passing game role, playing 647 snaps total to Trautman’s 519, with the majority of Trautman’s snaps coming as a blocker in run situations. Johnson actually finished the season second on the team in receiving with a 42/508/7 slash line, without a consistent #2 wide receiver all season, while Trautman finished at just 18/207/1.

Trautman was traded to the Broncos for a swap of late round picks this off-season and will essentially be replaced by free agent addition Foster Moreau, who comes over from the Raiders on a 3-year, 12.234 million dollar deal. Moreau essentially played a starter’s snap total in each of the past two seasons, with 749 in 2021 and 745 last season, but he averaged just 1.19 yards per route run and a 32/397/3 slash line per season, while posting overall grades of 58.8 and 61.1 on PFF. The 2019 4th round pick flashed potential early in his career, with grades of 70.8 and 67.2 in his first two seasons in the league, as well an average of 1.41 yards per route run, but that came on snap totals of just 373 and 257 respectively and he hasn’t been able to translate to that a larger role. 

I would expect that to continue in New Orleans, though he could see a smaller snap count, more in line with Trautman’s old role as a blocking specialist, with Johnson playing well enough last season to remain the top pass catching tight end. Johnson is a one-year wonder coming off of a career year though, as the 2020 undrafted free agent averaged just 0.81 yards per route run in the first two seasons of his career. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he regressed in 2023, but it also wouldn’t be a surprise if he permanently turned a corner and remained a decent pass catching tight end, one who holds his own as a run blocker as well.

The Saints also have Taysom Hill, who is technically listed as a tight end, but most frequently lined up as a wildcat quarterback last season, playing quarterback on 148 of 324 snaps, as opposed to just 51 as an inline tight end. Hill seldom threw the ball, with just 19 pass attempts, but he was very effective in his limited action with 13 completions for 240 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no interceptions (146.3 QB rating), while showing his effectiveness in the open field with a 5.99 YPC average and a team leading 7 touchdowns on 96 carries.

In fact, the aspects of the game in which Hill most struggled were with traditional tight end duties, as he caught just nine passes and averaged just 0.62 yards per route run, while struggling to block as a 6-2 225 converted quarterback. That’s nothing new for Hill, who has been the ultimate gadget player in his career. He has averaged just 1.19 yards per route run for his career, while consistently struggling as a blocker, but he has also averaged 5.55 YPC and 23 touchdowns on 317 carries and has a career QB rating of 88.7, with just nine starts as an actual quarterback in his career. 

Hill is now going into his age 33 season and could start to decline a little bit, but he should play his usual role and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued being effective in the aspects in which he has been effective throughout his career, even if he declines a little bit. He won’t have a huge role in the passing game in a group that has a couple capable tight ends, as well as a top-3 wide receiver group that has the upside to be among the best in the league, though Shaheed and Thomas both come with a lot of downside as well, given Shaheed’s inexperience and Thomas’ injury history.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

Running back Alvin Kamara also played a big role in the passing game last season, finishing with a 57/490/2 slash line and averaging 1.66 yards per route down, both of which were third on the team. Kamara is still a useful pass catcher, but he was definitely a lot more productive when he played with Drew Brees, as he averaged a 82/706/4 slash line per season and 2.15 yards per route run in his first four seasons in the league with Brees, as opposed to 52/465/4 and 1.64 yards per route run over the past two seasons on average. 

Kamara has also seen his yards per carry average drop from 4.97 in his first four seasons in the league to just 3.88 over the past two seasons, in part due to having less room to run without a feared passing game taking pressure off him and in part due to having to carry the ball more often and wearing down, averaging 232 carries per season and 16.5 carries per game, as opposed to 168 carries per season and 11.2 carries per game in his first four seasons in the league. This off-season, the Saints tried to rectify the problem of overloading Kamara by signing Jamaal Williams to a not insignificant contract of 12 million over 3 years, as well as using a 3rd round pick on TCU’s Kendre Miller. 

In addition to keeping Kamara fresher, the Saints likely made those additions in part because Kamara is facing a potential suspension of up to six games for an off the field issue, which could take place during the 2023 season, depending on the timing of his legal case. However, Williams and Miller will still help accomplish the goal of keeping Kamara fresher even when he does play, which should make him more efficient, still only in his age 28 season. Outside of Taysom Hill’s production, the Saints actually struggled on the ground last season, with #2 running back Mark Ingram totaling a YPC average of 3.76 on 62 carries that was even lower than Kamara’s 4.02 YPC average. With Williams and Miller being added, I would expect their running backs to be more effective this season than a year ago, even if Kamara gets suspended and misses significant action.

Williams actually led the NFL in rushing touchdowns last season with 17, though he benefited from a great offensive line with the Lions and a league leading 41 carries inside the 10-yard line, which he took for 13 touchdowns. Still, Williams was effective in his own right, as he ranked 11th in carry success rate with 54%, after ranking 7th (53%), 6th (57%), and 18th (54%) in the previous three seasons. He also received a grade of 73.4 from PFF, his 4th straight season over 69. Even if he’s a one-year wonder in terms of posting the touchdown total he had last season (13 career touchdowns in five seasons in the league prior to last year), he’s proven himself as a consistently reliable between the tackles runner who can keep your offense on schedule and be effective in the red zone. 

Williams is a good complement for the speedier Alvin Kamara and could see a significant role as a change of pace back and touchdown vulture, though Kamara figures to remain the primary passing down back, with Williams averaging just 1.07 yards per route run for his career. Miller, meanwhile, will likely be the third back and see minimal action unless one of the two running backs ahead of him on the depth chart are out of action, but that could easily be the case given Kamara’s legal situation, so Miller could easily find himself in a role splitting playing time with Williams for a stretch this season. This is a much deeper backfield than a year ago, which makes this position group better as a whole than a year ago, even with feature back Kamara possibly suspended for a significant amount of time.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

There isn’t much that changes on the offensive line this season for the Saints, who bring back all six offensive linemen who started at least six games upfront for them last season. There will likely be one difference though, as left tackle James Hurst, who played 973 snaps and started 16 games last season, will likely be replaced in the starting lineup by Trevor Penning, who played just 124 snaps and started just one game. That’s because Penning was a first round pick a year ago and he would have been a starter during his rookie season if he hadn’t gotten hurt before the season started. Hurst wasn’t bad in his absence, with a 63.2 PFF grade, but Penning flashed a lot of potential with a 73.6 PFF grade in limited action and could easily prove to be a significant upgrade, assuming the most likely scenario where he wins the job this off-season.

Hurst, meanwhile, will likely be a reserve, a role he could be very valuable in, having received a PFF grade higher than 60 in five straight seasons, while making 48 starts over that 5-year stretch, primarily at tackle, but also showing the ability to kick inside to guard in a pinch if needed. Hurst is now going into his age 32 season and has maxed out at 70.1 on PFF in nine seasons in the league, so he doesn’t have a huge upside and could easily start declining soon, but he’s more than qualified to be the first offensive linemen off the bench, especially when you consider his versatility.

Another difference the Saints are hoping for this season is better health on the interior of their offensive line and subsequently fewer starts made by reserve Calvin Throckmorton, who made six starts last season and struggled mightily with a 38.4 PFF grade. Josh Andrews also made five starts on the interior and struggled with a 51.6 PFF grade, before not being brought back this off-season, unlike Throckmorton, who returns as the Saints’ top interior reserve option, despite not only struggling mightily last season, but also in 2021, when he had a 42.4 PFF grade in the only other playing time of the 2020 undrafted free agent’s career.

Left guard Andrus Peat missed the most time of the Saints’ interior offensive linemen last season, limited to 573 snaps in 11 games, which is nothing new for the 8-year veteran, who has missed 35 games total in his career, since being selected in the first round in 2015. Peat showed a lot of promise early in his career, with PFF grades of 61.0, 71.5, and 68.2 in his first three seasons in the league, but he has finished below 60 in four of the previous five seasons, including a 50.6 in 2022, as injuries have seemingly sapped his abilities. Now going into his age 30 season, I wouldn’t expect him to bounce back, so he should continue struggling, in addition to likely missing more time with injury.

Right guard Cesar Ruiz is also a former first round pick and he has also struggled in recent seasons, as the 2020 24th overall pick has received 58.6, 57.6, and 56.6 grades from PFF in three seasons in the league. He’s still only going into his age 24 season and could still take a step forward, but even if he does, it’s unlikely he’s more than a marginal starter. That would still be an upgrade on what he’s been thus far in his career, which is mostly a liability.

Center Erik McCoy is the best of the Saints’ interior offensive line, though he’s not without his own concerns. He only had a 61.2 PFF grade last season, the worst of his 4-year career and, in fact, McCoy has gotten worse in every season of his career, from 76.2 as a rookie to 70.1 in his second season to 63.6 in 2021, before his career worst year in 2022. Injuries have been part of the problem in the past two seasons though (9 games missed) and, only going into his age 26 season, the former second round pick has some bounce back potential if he’s healthy. He should remain at least a capable starting center, but he has the upside to be more if he’s at his best. 

The best player on this offensive line is right tackle Ryan Ramczyk, who led the group with a 77.9 PFF rating in 16 starts last season. That was actually a down year for Ramczyk, who had previously finished above 80 on PFF in each of his previous five seasons in the league, after being selected in the first round by the Saints in 2017. Ramczyk is still only going into his age 29 season with minimal injury history (nine games missed in his career), so he has a good chance to get back into that 80 range. He’s one of the best right tackles in the league and elevates an offensive line that has promise at left tackle and center as well, but a likely weakness at both guard spots.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

Even with the Saints’ aggressive cap strategy, they couldn’t keep all of their key players this off-season, particularly at the interior defender position, where the Saints didn’t bring back their top-3 players in terms of snaps played from a year ago, David Onyemata (682 snaps), Shy Tuttle (557 snaps), and Kentavius Street (518 snaps). Street struggled mightily with a 49.2 PFF grade, so he won’t be missed, but Tuttle was a solid run defender in base packages (67.1 PFF grade against the run), while Onyemata was an effective pass rusher (66.9 PFF grade as a pass rusher, 9.1% pressure rate) and the Saints didn’t do a good job of replacing the departed interior defenders.

The Saints used the 29th overall pick on Clemson’s Bryan Bresee, who has a lot of upside and will likely be forced into a significant role right away as a rookie, but he figures to have at least some growing pains in year one. The Saints also signed veterans Khalen Saunders and Nathan Shepherd to 3-year deals worth 12.3 million and 15 million respectively, but both are underwhelming options. Saunders was a 3rd round pick in 2019 and barely played in his first three seasons, primarily due to injuries, playing just 521 mostly nondescript snaps total in 22 games across those three seasons combined. 

Saunders finally stayed healthy for 2023, playing in 16 games and seeing a career high 421 snaps as a rotational player, but was only alright with a 60.2 PFF grade in his limited role. Saunders may still have some untapped upside if he can continue staying healthy, but he’s already in his age 27 season and I wouldn’t expect too much more from him in 2023, even assuming he can play close to a full season for just the second time in his career.

Shepherd, meanwhile, was a 3rd round pick in 2018 and has mostly been a rotational player in his career, averaging 364 snaps per season and receiving mostly middling grades from PFF. Now in his age 30 season, he’s unlikely to get any better and could easily start to decline and struggle even in a rotational role. The Saints also still have top holdover interior defender Malcolm Roach, but the 2020 undrafted free agent struggled with a 47.8 PFF grade on 316 snaps last season and has never been any better than that, playing just 427 snaps prior to last season and never receiving a grade higher than 50 from PFF. 

Even if it’s as a deep reserve, Roach figures to still have somewhat of a role in this position group and if there are any injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, he figures to be forced into a significant role, with the only other interior defender options currently on the roster being undrafted rookies. The Saints will be counting on the rookie Bresee to carry an otherwise very underwhelming position group and, while Bresee has a lot of upside long-term, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he was unable to significantly elevate this position group by himself as a rookie.

Grade: C

Edge Defenders

The Saints didn’t lose as much at the edge defender position this off-season as they did on the interior, but they didn’t re-sign free agent Marcus Davenport. Davenport was mostly a rotational player with 490 snaps played in 15 games, but he was an effective one, with a 12.1% pressure rate, solid run defense, and a 76.8 overall grade from PFF. To replace him, the Saints used a second round pick in this year’s draft on Notre Dame’s Isaiah Foskey and they expect to get more from Payton Turner, also a recent high draft pick (28th overall in 2021), who was limited to 171 snaps in 8 games last season by injury. Those two young players will compete for playing time with holdovers Carl Granderson (480 snaps) and Tanoh Kpassagnon (356 snaps), with Cameron Jordan (790 snaps) likely leading the way once again, even going into his age 34 season.

Jordan has had a Hall of Fame caliber career, missing just two games in 12 seasons in the league, totaling 115.5 sacks, 113 hits, and a 10.8% pressure rate, playing the run at a high level and finishing above 80 on PFF in seven straight seasons from 2015-2021, but he showed some signs of decline last season. For him, that meant he still received a 74.5 grade from PFF, so he was still an above average starter in an every down role, but that was his lowest PFF grade since 2014 and his lowest snap total since his rookie season in 2011. He also particularly declined as a pass rusher, still playing the run at a high level, but managing just a 7.9% pressure rate, his lowest since 2012. He could remain an above average every down player in 2023, but he could easily decline further and his best days are almost definitely behind him. 

Jordan will probably remain their best edge defender, but only because none of their other options have that high of an upside. Carl Granderson received a 80.4 grade from PFF last season, but it came in a rotational role (480 snaps) and the 2019 undrafted free agent had never received a grade higher than 68.0 (2020) for a season from PFF prior to last season, while his previous career high in snaps was 448 in a 2021 season in which he received just a 63.2 grade from PFF. He could remain a high level rotational player, but he could easily decline a little and, even if he doesn’t, he’s still a projection to a larger role who might not play at the same level if forced into a larger role.

Kpassagnon has also mostly been a rotational player in his career and he’s also never been as good as Granderson was last season, finishing below 60 on PFF in three of the previous four seasons. Payton Turner should theoretically have a high upside because of where he was drafted, but he’s played just 315 nondescript snaps in 13 games thus far in two seasons in the league, due to a combination of injuries and ineffectiveness. He figures to play more in 2023 by default, assuming he’s somewhat healthy, but it’s unclear if he’ll show why he was a high draft pick in the first place. With Jordan, Granderson, Kpassagnon, Turner, and the rookie Foskey, the Saints have options at the edge defender position, but Jordan appears to be on the decline, while the rest of the bunch have never shown themselves as reliable NFL starters, so this group has a pretty low floor, in addition to having a relatively high ceiling.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Saints also lost linebacker Kaden Elliss this off-season, a big loss as he was PFF’s 6th ranked off ball linebacker with a 81.5 grade on 632 snaps last season, playing well against the run and the pass, but especially excelling as a pass rusher, both as a blitzer and as a sub package edge defender, totaling 7 sacks (2nd most on the team), 4 hits, and a 19.4% pressure rate in a limited pass rush role. Making matters worse, their other top linebacker Demario Davis, who ranked 5th among off ball linebackers with a 82.7 PFF grade on 1,132 snaps last season, is now heading into his age 34 season and could start to decline significantly. 

Like Cameron Jordan, Demario Davis has been a consistently high level linebacker for years, finishing above 70 on PFF in six straight seasons, while playing 63.7 snaps per game in 97 of a possible 98 games over that stretch, and, like Jordan, it would be a big loss for this defense is Davis was no longer able to play at his usual level. Even if he declines from his usual dominant self, he still has a good chance to remain an above average every down linebacker, but his best days are probably behind him at this point of his career and a big dropoff from him would have big repercussions for this defense.

With Elliss gone and Davis aging, the Saints will need more out of third year linebacker Pete Werner. Originally a second round pick in 2021, Werner flashed a lot of potential as a rookie with a 79.9 PFF grade, but that came on 394 snaps in 14 games (28.1 snaps per game). In 2022, he wasn’t bad, but he couldn’t continue that high level of play into a bigger role, playing 49.7 snaps per game and finishing with a 64.4 grade on PFF, significantly down from his rookie season, while missing five games due to injury. Werner doesn’t have anyone blocking him from an every down role in his third season in the league in 2023 and figures to play even more snaps per game than he did a year ago. Only going into his age 24 season, he has the talent and upside to be effective in that role, but that’s not a guarantee.

The Saints don’t have much depth at the linebacker position, with 2020 3rd round pick Zach Baun, a career reserve and special teamer, likely to be the top reserve, mostly by virtue of his draft status and the Saints’ lack of competition, as he’s been pretty mediocre in just 361 career snaps in three seasons in the league and is no guarantee to be any better in 2023, already in his age 27 season. Baun won’t have to play a big role as the third linebacker in this defense, but the Saints play a 4-3 base defense, so he will have to see at least some action in base packages and he would be forced into a much bigger role if either Davis or Werner got hurt. Baun is an uninspiring option, but he’s the only realistic candidate to be the third linebacker in a very thin position group. This is still a solid group overall, but they will miss free agent departure Kaden Elliss and they would be in a lot of trouble if the aging Demario Davis got hurt or declined significantly.

Grade: B+

Secondary

Cornerback was the Saints’ biggest weakness on defense last season, as they had five cornerbacks play at least 350 snaps and the only one to finish above 60 on PFF was top cornerback Marshon Lattimore, who only had a 64.7 grade on 415 snaps in 7 games in an injury plagued season. The Saints didn’t make any major additions at the position this off-season, so they will be hoping for a healthier year from Lattimore and better play from the rest of the bunch. Paulson Adebo (814 snaps), Alontae Taylor (663 snaps), and Bradley Roby (628 snaps) were their top-3 cornerbacks in terms of snaps played last season and all three return to the team in 2023 and have the potential to be better this season than they were a year ago.

Adebo was a 3rd round pick in 2021 and had a decent 60.3 PFF grade on 851 snaps as a rookie, but he missed the start of the 2022 season with injury and never seemed to be healthy, leading to a 49.1 PFF grade for his second season in the league. Still only in his age 24 season, Adebo could be a lot better in his third season in the league if he’s healthy and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if this season ended up being the best yet of his young career. Taylor is also young, going in the second round in 2022, and has a good chance in year two to improve on the 54.5 PFF grade he had last season, when he missed six games with injury and may have never really been healthy all year.

Roby, on the other hand, is a veteran, going into his 10th season in the league. He used to be a solid starter, with PFF grade above 60 in seven of his first eight seasons in the league prior to last season, with three seasons over 70. However, he fell all the way to 45.4 in his 9th season in the league 2022, while being limited to 632 snaps in 13 games by injury. Roby probably won’t be as bad in 2023, but that will probably be by default, as Roby is now entering his age 31 season and his best days are probably behind him as a result. He could easily continue being a liability even if he’s better than a year ago. He should start the season as a reserve behind young cornerbacks Taylor and Adebo, as well as top cornerback Marshon Lattimore.

Lattimore was disappointing by his standards last season even when on the field and, only going into his age 27 season, he has a good chance to bounce back, with three seasons over 70 in six years in the league. Durability has always been a concern for him though, as he’s missed 18 games total in his career, an average of three per season, while playing every game just once, so there’s a good chance he misses at least some time again this year. However, he should still be on the field significantly more than a year ago and he has a good chance to be more effective as well. He leads a cornerback group that has a lot of question marks behind him.

Things are better at safety where Marcus Maye and Tyrann Mathieu were an above average safety duo a year ago and both return for 2023, heading into the 2nd year of 3-year contracts worth 22.5 million and 28.3 million respectively that the Saints signed them to as free agents last off-season. Mathieu was the better of the two in their first season in New Orleans, finishing as PFF’s 6th ranked safety with a 81.2 grade, the highest grade he’s had in a season since 2015 and his 6th season graded 70 or higher in 10 seasons in the league. Mathieu is going into his age 31 season and it’s probably unlikely he’ll repeat one of the best seasons of his career again in 2023, but he should remain at least an above average starter, barring an unexpected massive drop off.

Maye, meanwhile, finished last season with a 71.8 grade from PFF. He did miss seven games with injury, limiting him to 669 snaps total, but, all in all, the Saints have to be somewhat happy with Maye’s first year in New Orleans, considering he was coming off of a torn achilles that cost him most of the 2021 season. Maye only had a 55.9 PFF grade in 2021 even before the injury, but he had been over 70 in the previous three seasons from 2018-2020, including two seasons over 80, so it’s not a big surprise to see him have success last season even after the injury. Maye is only going into his age 29 season and, now another year removed from the injury, he could easily be even better this season. Durability remains a concern, with 28 games missed in six seasons in the league, but he’s also played every game in three of six seasons. 

The Saints will need Maye and Mathieu to stay healthy this season, not only because they are one of the better safety duos in the league when healthy, but also because they don’t have the depth options they had at the position last season with Justin Evans (391 snaps), PJ Williams (298 snaps), and Daniel Sorensen (166 snaps) all no longer with the team. They were all middling at best in their limited action, but the Saints didn’t do much to replace them, aside from using a 5th round pick on Minnesota’s Jordan Howden. 

Even as a rookie, Howden compete for a reserve role with career special teamer JT Gray, who has played just 111 defensive snaps since going undrafted in 2018, and Johnathan Abram, a former first round pick bust of the Raiders, who has 36 career starts in four seasons with the league, but has never finished above 60 on PFF and is already on his 4th team in his career. Depth is a concern at safety, while their cornerback depth chart is full of question marks, but there are some proven players in this secondary and other players with the upside to take a step forward.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Saints weren’t a bad team last season, finishing 19th in DVOA, just slightly below average, but new quarterback Derek Carr isn’t going to give them a significant enough boost to make them a contender, especially when you consider the off-season losses they had on defense. Their offense should be better this year, not just because of Carr, but because they have better running back depth and should be healthier overall, after the 7th most adjusted games lost to injury on offense last season. 

However, their defense had an ordinary amount of injuries a year ago and is significantly less talented now than last season, especially if aging stars Demario Davis and Cameron Jordan decline significantly. Because of that, they are likely to decline on that side of the ball, probably about as much as their offense can be expected to improve. The Saints could still win the weak NFC South by default, but they won’t be true contenders and they have a lot of cap problems long-term after keeping this aging core together for so long, and then splurging on Carr this off-season, even though he’s unlikely to move the needle under center. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 11-6, 1st in NFC South