Saints

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers: 2016 Week 11 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (4-5) at Carolina Panthers (3-6)

The Panthers lost last week by a field goal at home, their 4th loss this season by 3 points or fewer. This loss was particularly heartbreaking for them as they led 17-0 early, but blew the lead and ended up losing 20-17 on the strength of a return touchdown and a late takeaway in Carolina territory that set up the winning field goal. Even though they won the game, the Chiefs actually didn’t score a single offensive touchdown all game and lost the first down battle 22-18. As you can imagine given all of their close loss, the Panthers have played better overall than their record suggests, as they rank 14th in first down rate differential. It’s a far cry from their 2015 team, but they could easily be 5-4 or 6-3 right now if a couple things had gone their way.

The problem for them this week is the Saints are also better than their record. The Saints enter this game at 4-5, but 3 of those losses came by 3 points or fewer, including a heartbreaker last week in which the Saints’ go-ahead extra point was blocked and returned for a game winning 2-point conversion by the Broncos’ defense. The Saints enter this game 8th in first down rate differential, a few spots higher than the Panthers, and also have a better point differential (-5 vs. +2). At 3.5 in favor of the host Carolina Panthers, this line suggests the Panthers are a slightly better team than the Saints, but I think it’s the other way around.

At the very least, these two teams are even, so this line shouldn’t be any higher than a field goal. The difference between 3 and 3.5 might not seem like much, but considering 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, it’s a pretty big half point. The Saints are also in a better spot, as they host the lowly Rams next week, while the Panthers have to travel to face Oakland. Underdogs are 91-59 ATS since 2012 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. Even if the Panthers win, this game figures to be close, so I’d put money on the Saints at 3.5. At +3, it’s probably worth buying the half point.

Carolina Panthers 24 New Orleans Saints 23

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (6-3) at New Orleans Saints (4-4)

This line has shifted significantly in the past week, as the Broncos were favored by a point on the early line, but are now 3 point road favorites in New Orleans. It’s a somewhat understandable line movement. The Saints have won 4 of 5 after a 0-3 start, including a 41-23 victory in San Francisco last week, while the Broncos have lost 3 of 5 since a 4-0 start, including a 30-20 loss in Oakland last week. On top of that, the Saints got back key defenders Delvin Breaux and Sheldon Rankins from injury last week, while the Broncos are without key defenders Derek Wolfe and Aqib Talib this week.

That being said, that’s still a very large line movement, as about 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer, and I’m not sure it’s completely warranted. This line suggests these two teams are about even, which I don’t think is quite true. The Broncos enter this game still in 6th in first down rate differential, while the Saints enter in 13th. Injury situations aside, the Broncos are still the better team right now. The Broncos are also in a much better spot, as the Saints have to turn around and go to Carolina next week on Thursday Night Football. Favorites are 50-80 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football.

The Broncos, meanwhile, are in a great spot in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 135-103 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 107-71 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 227-244 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.86 points per game, as opposed to 326-456 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.02 points per game. The Broncos are worth a bet if you can get the full field goal. The moneyline is also a good bet, as this game is a toss up at worst for the visiting Broncos.

Denver Broncos 24 New Orleans Saints 23 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Denver +3

Confidence: Medium

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New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers: 2016 Week 9 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (4-4) at San Francisco 49ers (1-6)

The Saints pulled a big home upset last week against the Seahawks. Part of the reason they were able to do that is because they didn’t have any upcoming distractions on the schedule, with this game in San Francisco against the 1-6 49ers on deck. Home underdogs tend to cover before being road favorites. Unfortunately for the Saints, the opposite also tends to be true, putting the Saints in a very tough spot this week as 4.5 point road favorites. This game is sandwiched between last week’s home upset win and another tough home game next week against the Denver Broncos, in which they are home underdogs on the early line. Teams are 56-78 ATS off of a home upset victory since 2012 and, over that same period of time, teams are just 16-31 ATS as road favorites before being home underdogs.

The 49ers are one of the worst teams in the league, but they could still easily take advantage of the Saints likely not being 100% focused on this seemingly easy game. I’m not saying the 49ers are going to win, but this line is 4.5 and about 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer, so I like the 49ers chances of at least keeping it close this week. This line was 2 a week ago on the early line, so we’ve had significant line movement through the key numbers of 3 and 4 in the past week as a result of the Saints’ victory. That’s a huge overreaction, as the Saints were in a great spot last week and playing a Seattle team that was missing two of its best defenders.

There are two reasons why this isn’t a bigger play. One is the Saints get two key defenders back from injury this week, as top cornerback Delvin Breaux will play for the first time since week 1 and 1st round pick defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins will make his NFL debut. They will help a defense that has been the worst in the league this season, though they’ve had the worst defense in the league in each of the past 2 seasons as well, so this is still a very weak unit. The second reason is the 49ers go to Arizona next week, a game in which they could be double digit underdogs (the early line is at 11). Teams are 40-61 ATS since 2012 before being double digit underdogs. That big divisional clash could be a distraction for San Francisco. I’m still taking the 49ers as long as the line is higher than 4, but it’s a medium confidence pick only.

New Orleans Saints 24 San Francisco 49ers 23

Pick against the spread: San Francisco +4.5

Confidence: Medium

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Seattle Seahawks at New Orleans Saints: 2016 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (4-1-1) at New Orleans Saints (2-4)

The Seahawks are 4-1-1, but have been underwhelming this season. Their defense has been fantastic once again, entering this game 2nd in first down percentage allowed, but their offense ranks just 29th in first down percentage and is coming off of a horrendous offensive showing in last week’s tie in Arizona. The Seahawks’ offense moved the ball a little bit better in overtime, but didn’t cross midfield until a late 4th quarter blocked punt that set up their only score of regulation. They picked up a first down on just 11 of 57 offensive plays in the game. Their defense played incredible, but the Seahawks still needed a number of Arizona special teams mistakes to even get the game to overtime.

The Saints are basically the opposite of the Seahawks, as they have a great offense (3rd in first down percentage), but a terrible defense (32nd in first down percentage allowed). The Seahawks rank 7th in first down percentage differential, while the Saints rank 22nd, but the gap between 1st and 7th is bigger than the gap between 7th and 22nd. There are a bunch of teams bunched up in the middle this season and the Seahawks’ statistical advantages can be largely explained by the fact that they’ve played a pretty easy schedule thus far. The Cardinals were a tough opponent last week, but they didn’t look good against them. Atlanta and Miami both played them tough in Seattle. And their other 3 games came against the Jets, 49ers, and Rams, who are among the worst teams in the league. Their .393 combined opponent record is the easiest strength of schedule in the league.

The Seahawks also come into this game very banged up. Russell Wilson has clearly not been healthy all year, dealing with a number of different injuries behind the worst offensive line in the league. Their offensive line gets even worse this week as the Seahawks will be starting undrafted rookie George Fant at left tackle in place of the injured Bradley Sowell. Sowell is not good at all, but Fant is a collegiate basketball player who hasn’t started a game of football since 8th grade. He played some tight end in college, but figures to be wildly overmatched in his first NFL defense.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Seahawks will be without safety Kam Chancellor and defensive end Michael Bennett, two of the best defensive players in the league. It doesn’t help matters that the Seahawks are coming off of playing 5 quarters in a tie. Teams are just 5-11 ATS after a tie since 1989, as teams are predictably tired after such a long, hard fought game. This line is way too high at 3 in favor of the visiting Seahawks. With the Seahawks as banged up as they are, I’d argue the Saints should be favored in this game, but we’re getting a full field goal; 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less. The Saints are also in a great spot, with an easy trip to San Francisco on deck; they don’t have any upcoming distractions on the schedule. Home underdogs are 76-43 ATS since 2002 before being road favorites. The Saints are my Pick of the Week at 3 and I’d still take them at 2 or 2.5.

New Orleans Saints 27 Seattle Seahawks 24 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs: 2016 Week 7 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (2-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-2)

The Saints pulled off a big upset win over the Panthers last week, winning 41-38 in a crazy shootout. That’s obviously a huge win, even if the Panthers aren’t what they were last year, but teams tend not to cover off of a big home upset victory, as teams are 53-76 ATS following a home upset victory since 2012. It makes sense that teams would be overconfident and/or overvalued off of a home upset victory. On top of that, the Saints have to turn around and hose the Seahawks next week, another huge home game. The early line has them as 5.5 point home underdogs and teams are just 37-85 ATS since 2012 before a home game in which they’ll be underdogs of at least 4.5 points, which also makes sense. Huge upcoming home games can be a distraction for teams.

The Chiefs are at least a solid opponent as well, ranking 12th in first down percentage differential, but it’s very possible the Saints won’t be focused this week or at least won’t be focused enough to keep it close here against a superior Chiefs team. We’re not really getting much line value with the Chiefs as 6 point favorites and there’s not quite enough for me to put money on this (though that might change if it drops to 5.5), but Kansas City should be the right side here.

Kansas City Chiefs 31 New Orleans Saints 23

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -6

Confidence: Low

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Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints: 2016 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (1-4) at New Orleans Saints (1-3)

The Panthers have had a rough start to their season to say the least. A year after losing just one regular season game en route to a Super Bowl appearance, the Panthers have started 1-4 and have a big uphill climb to even make the playoffs. In order to win 10 games, the Panthers now have to win 9 of their final 11 games. That being said, I wouldn’t rule that out. The Panthers still have one of the most talented rosters in the league, but have suffered bad luck early in the year. Three of their losses came against tough opponents in the Broncos (who they could have beaten if not for a missed field goal), Vikings, and Falcons, while their 4th loss came in a game in which they were without concussed quarterback Cam Newton and still had a shot to win despite a -4 turnover margin. Newton is back this week (as is running back Jonathan Stewart) and turnover margins are very inconsistent on a week to week basis. Teams that have a -4 turnover margin on average have a turnover margin of +0.1 the following week.

The Panthers are underrated coming into this game, as mere 3 point road favorites against a Saints team that is probably a bottom-10 team, especially without left tackle Terron Armstead, cornerback Delvin Breaux, and first round pick defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins, who are all injured. The Panthers aren’t quite as talented as they were last year, especially without cornerback Josh Norman, but them going 9-2 the rest of the way isn’t crazy. It’ll be tough, but just looking at their schedule, there’s only two games the rest of the way where they figure to be underdogs (@ Oakland and @ Seattle) if they stay healthy. They’re a talented team and could start a run to the playoffs with a big victory against an inferior Saints team in New Orleans. There’s not quite enough for me to put money on the Panthers, but that changes if the line falls under 3.

Carolina Panthers 31 New Orleans Saints 24

Pick against the spread: Carolina -3

Confidence: Low

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New Orleans Saints at San Diego Chargers: 2016 Week 4 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (0-3) at San Diego Chargers (1-2)

Last year, the Chargers went 4-12, thanks in large part to a lot of close losses and a lot of injuries. These things tend to average out in the long run, but so far this year they have not for the Chargers. The Chargers could be 3-0, but blew late leads against both Kansas City and Indianapolis and lost both games by less than a touchdown. On top of that, they’re already without wide receivers Keenan Allen and Steve Johnson and running back Danny Woodhead for the year with injury. Defensive end Joey Bosa and tight end Antonio Gates remain out, while left tackle King Dunlap, cornerback Brandon Flowers, and possibly right tackle Joe Barksdale will join them on the sideline this week. That’s a lot of talent that’s inactive.

The Saints also have a lot of talent that’s inactive. Their best injured player is left tackle Terron Armstead, one of the best in the game. That’s a huge blow to this offense. However, most of the missing talent is on defense, where they aren’t that good to begin with. Safety Kenny Vaccaro returns from a one-game absence this week, but the Saints are still without first round pick defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins and starting cornerbacks Delvin Breaux and PJ Williams. The least talented defense in the league, the Saints are giving a pair of undrafted free agents significant snaps at cornerback.

The Chargers have been much better this season though, even with all of their injuries. While the Saints rank 24th in rate of moving the chains differential so far this season, the Chargers rank 9th. Despite their 4-12 record and all of their injuries, the Chargers still finished 13th in that metric last season. This line is at 4, which suggests the Chargers are significantly better than the Saints (1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer). I agree with that, but we’re not getting a ton of line value with the Chargers, so I can’t be confident in them. I’m also concerned that the Chargers are 6-11 ATS in their last 17 home games, as they’re known for having poor home crowds, so this is a no confidence pick.

San Diego Chargers 33 New Orleans Saints 27

Pick against the spread: San Diego -4

Confidence: None

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Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints: 2016 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (1-1) at New Orleans Saints (0-2)

One of my favorite things to do as a bettor is go against significant week-to-week line movements. This game has a significant one, as the Saints were favored by 4 points on the early line, but the line has since dropped to 3, as a result of Atlanta’s upset victory in the road in Oakland last week. That might not seem like a huge movement, as it’s only one point, but about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, so that point matters. The Saints are also in a better spot than the Falcons, as the Falcons have to turn around and host the Panthers on a short week next week, after this Monday Night contest. Teams are 51-93 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 4, as tough upcoming home games like that tend to be a distraction.

Despite that, I’m actually going with the Falcons here, though for a no confidence play. This line suggests these two teams are even, but that’s only true if both of them are healthy. The Saints are already missing their two starting cornerbacks (Delvin Breaux and PJ WIlliams) for an extended period of time and are giving significant snaps to a pair of undrafted rookie cornerbacks (Ken Crawley and De’vante Harris). On top of that, they’re still without rookie first round pick Sheldon Rankins, one of their best defensive lineman. On the offensive side of things, left tackle Terron Armstead, one of the best in the league, is expected to miss this one. The Falcons, meanwhile, are relatively healthy, so they’re the pick here as long as we’re getting the full field goal with them.

New Orleans Saints 26 Atlanta Falcons 24

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +3

Confidence: None

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New Orleans Saints at New York Giants: 2016 Week 2 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (0-1) at New York Giants (1-0)

The Saints’ defense was bad last week, allowing 35 points, 486 yards of offense, and 82.86% rate of moving the chains at home against an Oakland team with a solid, but unspectacular offense. However, their defense could be even worse this week, as they go on the road to face a Giants team with a solid offense and they have to do so without top cornerback Delvin Breaux, who broke his leg late in last week’s game. It’s no surprise that the Raiders’ 22-point 4th quarter, capping off a huge comeback win, came without Breaux in the lineup. Breaux was easily their best cornerback and, also without first round pick Sheldon Rankins with injury, the Saints have next to no talent left on their defense around Cameron Jordan. The Saints have finished dead last in rate of moving the chains allowed in back-to-back seasons, but their current defense might be less talented than both of those teams.

Of course, the Saints’ offense still looks strong, as 37-year-old Drew Brees has yet to slow down. We’ll see how they do this week on the road, away from the Superdome, but the Giants’ offense is better than their defense as well, so this figures to be another shootout. Given that, I’m very hesitant to put anything on the Giants this week, even though I think they should be the right side. About 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer and the Saints could easily get a touchdown down by like 10 late to get the backdoor cover, but the Giants are significantly better than the Saints and this line seems pretty fair.

New York Giants 33 New Orleans Saints 27

Pick against the spread: NY Giants -4.5

Confidence: None

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Oakland Raiders at New Orleans Saints: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (0-0) at New Orleans Saints (0-0)

Almost every season, one team goes from out of the playoffs to a first round bye. The Raiders are my pick to do that this year, or at least come close. A young team that has drafted well over the past few years, adding the likes of Derek Carr, Khalil Mack, Amari Cooper, and Gabe Jackson in 2014 and 2015, the Raiders have had a lot of money to play with in free agency over the past two off-seasons and have done well adding veteran talent in free agency to complement their young talent, adding the likes of Rodney Hudson, Michael Crabtree, Sean Smith, Michael Griffin, Bruce Irvin, and Kelechi Osemele over the past 2 off-seasons. On paper, this is one of the most talented teams in the AFC.

Meanwhile, the Saints have a strong offense, but a pathetic defense and figure to finish under .500 for the 3rd straight season. If the 37-year-old Drew Brees starts to show his age, the Saints could easily be one of the worst teams in the league in 2016. Despite that, they’re actually favored by a point and half here at home week 1. I obviously wish we were getting the whole field goal with the Raiders, but the Saints shouldn’t be favored by any amount of points here. There’s a very good chance Oakland would be favored by at least a field goal on the road in mid-season against New Orleans, after people realize how talented this team is. The Saints’ Superdome magic seems to have worn out in recent years, as they’re just 6-9 ATS at home over the past 2 seasons, after going 20-4 ATS at home during better times from 2011-2013, so I see no reason not to take Oakland.

Oakland Raiders 27 New Orleans Saints 20 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Oakland +1.5

Confidence: Medium

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