Saints

Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 12 NFL Picks, Ravens, Saints, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (6-4) at New Orleans Saints (4-6)

The Saints have lost back-to-back home games, but that doesn’t completely erase what they’ve historically done at home in recent memory. Before these last two games, they had won 20 straight home games under Sean Payton and they are still 18-3-1 ATS at home over their last 22 home games with Drew Brees and Sean Payton, outscoring opponents by an average of about 16.91 points per game. Even just this season at home, they move the chains at an 82.26% rate, as opposed to 75.86% for their opponents, a differential of 6.40%. They’re even better in night games at home, going 13-3 ATS in night games at the Superdome since Drew Brees and Sean Payton arrived all the way back in 2006. They most recently blew out a Green Bay team that has done nothing but put up points in the weeks since.

Meanwhile, the Ravens are not as good on the road and haven’t been for years. While the Ravens are 44-10 at home since the start of the Joe Flacco/John Harbaugh era, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.52 points per game, they are just 32-30 on the road over that time period, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.34 points per game. This season, they move the chains at a 72.61% rate on road, as opposed to 75.61% for their opponents, a differential of -3.00%. On top of that, Drew Brees is typically deadly off of a loss as long as Sean Payton is on the sideline (last week was the exception), going 21-6 ATS off a loss since 2008 as long as Sean Payton is on the sideline, including 16-3 ATS at home.

The only reason that this isn’t a bigger play on New Orleans isn’t that I don’t trust the Saints after they’ve burned me in several times on big plays this season. They still have most first downs in the NFL and are much better than their record. We’re finally getting great value with them at home off of those two losses as this line went from 6 to 3 after their loss last week. However, they are in a bad spot with a trip to Pittsburgh on deck, while the Ravens host the Chargers next. Teams are 111-75 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2008, while teams conversely are 76-106 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2008. Combining the two, teams are 100-61 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. I still like the Saints a good amount here in a big night game at home.

New Orleans Saints 27 Baltimore Ravens 17

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -3

Confidence: Medium

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Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, Bengals, Saints, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (5-3-1) at New Orleans Saints (4-5)

The Saints lost at home last week after previously winning 20 straight games under Sean Payton at home. Still, I like them at home a lot. They are still 18-2-1 ATS at home over their last 21 home games with Drew Brees and Sean Payton, outscoring opponents by an average of about 18.52 points per game. I’m not going to not bet the Saints at home this week just because they lost in overtime last week. In fact, the fact that they lost last week might make it more likely that they cover this week. Drew Brees is 21-5 ATS off a loss since 2008 as long as Sean Payton is on the sideline, including 16-2 ATS at home.

Meanwhile, the Bengals have not been good on the road recently. The Bengals are 3-7-1 ATS on the road since the start of last season, including losses in 2013 to non-playoff teams like Cleveland, Miami, Chicago, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh and a close call in Buffalo. They are moving the chains at a 57.89% rate on the road, as opposed to 77.12% for their opponents, a differential of -19.22%. Meanwhile, the Saints are moving the chains at an 82.47% rate at home, as opposed to 73.28% for their opponents, a differential of 9.19%. The only reason this isn’t my Pick of the Week is because the Bengals are coming off of an embarrassing loss on Thursday Night Football and teams usually bounce back in that situation, as they have extra time to be embarrassed. Underdogs are 24-16 ATS since 1989 off of a TNF loss by 14 or more. The Saints are still the right side though.

New Orleans Saints 34 Cincinnati Bengals 20

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -7

Confidence: High

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San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 Week 10 NFL Picks, 49ers, Saints, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (4-4) at New Orleans Saints (4-4)

Both of these teams are 4-4, but one of them is significantly better. While the 49ers rank 20th in rate of moving the chains differential, the Saints are all the way up at 5th. The 49ers move the chains at a 72.92% rate, as opposed to 74.01% for their opponents, a differential of -1.09%. Meanwhile, the Saints move them at an 81.61% rate (best in the NFL), as opposed to 76.64% for their opponents, a differential of 4.97%. Why are they 4-4 when they’ve played that well? Well, they have a -6 turnover margin and a -2 return touchdown margin fueled by a 35.29% rate of recovering fumbles, and 3 losses by a combined 6 points. They are legitimately a few plays away from being 7-1.

They’ve also played that well despite playing 5 of 8 on the road, where they are historically significantly worse than at home. Now they have 3 straight games at home and are poised to go on a run, starting with this game. Teams are 61-45 ATS since 1989 as home favorites before being home favorites twice more in a row. At the same time, they are 18-1-1 ATS at home over their last 20 home games with Drew Brees and Sean Payton, winning all 20 of those games by an average of about 19.6 points per game. They are an auto-bet at home and they’re still significantly undervalued to boot. This is my Pick of the Week.

New Orleans Saints 34 San Francisco 49ers 20

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 9 NFL Picks, Panthers, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (3-4) at Carolina Panthers (3-4-1)

I’ve been high on the Saints this whole season, picking them to win the Super Bowl before the season and not really wavering from that a ton even as they got out to a 2-4 start. That 2-4 start was largely a result of starting the season with 4 of 6 on the road, a significant injury to Jimmy Graham (which he’s over now), a -8 turnover margin and a -3 return touchdown margin fueled by an 18.18% rate of recovering fumbles, and 3 losses by a combined 6 points. They were legitimately a few plays away from being 5-1.

Last week, they got Graham back and were able to beat a very good Packer team by 21 back at home, winning the turnover battle by 2. Now they’re legitimately a few plays away from being 6-1. However, now they have to go back on the road, which hasn’t been nearly as kind to them over recent years.  While they are 18-1-1 ATS at home over their last 20 home games with Drew Brees and Sean Payton, winning all 20 of those games by an average of about 19.6 points per game, they are 3-11 ATS on the road over the past 2 seasons.

I wish the Saints were still underdogs as they were with the early line last week (Carolina -1.5), as Drew Brees is 6-8 ATS as road underdogs since 2010, as opposed to 8-17 ATS as road favorites. That also would have opened up a significant trend as the Saints will be home favorites next week for San Francisco, while the Panthers will be road underdogs next week in Philadelphia (teams are 57-96 ATS since 2010 as home favorites before being road underdogs when their opponent will next be home favorites).

I hate going with huge line movement like this one (-1.5 to +2.5), but it’s all within the field goals so it’s not as big of a concern. This line is also more than justified as the line movement is simply catching up to how good the Saints have been all season. The Saints rank 6th, moving the chains at an 81.30% rate, as opposed to 78.08% for their opponents, a differential of 3.22%. The Panthers, meanwhile, rank 23rd, moving the chains at a 74.10% rate, but allowing opponents to move them at a 77.04% rate, a differential of -2.94%. That suggests the Saints should be favored by at least a field goal. On top of that, home underdogs in night games are 30-58 ATS since 1989. The Saints should be the right side, but I can’t be confident in them on the road.

New Orleans Saints 31 Carolina Panthers 27

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -2.5

Confidence: None

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Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 8 NFL Picks, Packers, Saints, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (5-2) at New Orleans Saints (2-4)

The Saints have been incredible at home over the past few years. They are 32-11 ATS at home since 2008 in the games which Drew Brees and Sean Payton were involved.  On top of that, they are 17-1-1 ATS at home over their last 19 home games with Drew Brees and Sean Payton. They’ve won all 18 of those games by an average of about 19.5 points per game, with just four being decided by 10 points or less and just one being decided by less than 6 points. The Saints are also 12-3 ATS in home night games since 2006. Meanwhile, the Packers haven’t been nearly as good on the road as they’ve been at home recently. Since 2009, the Packers are 37-9 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 11.19 points per game. On the other hand, they are 28-21 on the road, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.94 points per game, a difference of about 8 points per game.

The Packers represent a much tougher than average opponent, but this line is still too low at 1. The Packers rank 11th in rate of moving the chains differential, which is impressive, but not as good as their record as they’ve been overly reliant on a +10 turnover margin and a fumble recovery rate of 56.25%. They are moving the chains at a 78.77% rate, as opposed to 76.52% for their opponents, a differential of 2.25%. The Saints, meanwhile, move the chains at an 80.36% rate, as opposed to 78.07% for their opponents, a differential of 2.28% that ranks 10th in the NFL. The reason they are 2-4, while the Packers are 5-2 is because they’re getting killed in the turnover battle (-8 in turnovers, -2 in return touchdowns, 18.18% fumble recovery) and because they have 3 losses by a combined 6 points.

They rank 10th in rate of moving the chains differential despite the fact that they’ve played 4 of 6 on the road which represent all their losses. In two home games, they’ve move the chains at an 85.00% rate, as opposed to 72.00% for their opponents, a differential of 13.00%. New Orleans is also getting Jimmy Graham to full strength back after he essentially missed 2 games (he went out early against Tampa Bay and barely played against Detroit).

Despite their records, these two teams are more comparable than you’d think and the Saints might actually be better. This line should be at least 3, even before you get into the Saints’ home dominance. On top of all that, Drew Brees is 20-5 ATS off a loss since 2008 as long as Sean Payton is on the sideline, including 15-2 ATS at home. The Packers are also public underdogs, in case you need another reason to take the Saints. I usually like to fade the public whenever it makes sense as the odds makers always come out on top, but I especially like fading the public when they’re on an underdog. If the Packers are really as likely to win as the public thinks, why do the odds makers have them as favorites? I could easily see the Saints winning by at least a touchdown.

The only reason this isn’t my Pick of the Week is because the Saints have Carolina 4 days after this one on Thursday Night Football. Teams are just 34-56 ATS since 2008 as favorites before Thursday Night football. Teams are also 86-105 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs on any day of the week since 2002. However, the Saints are barely favored here and they should be able to be completely focused on this one even with that game on the horizon because they’re coming off a loss, facing a 5-2 opponent, and will feel like they need this game to save their season. I really like the Saints this week.

New Orleans Saints 34 Green Bay Packers 27

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -1

Confidence: High

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New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 7 NFL Picks, Lions, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (2-3) at Detroit Lions (4-2)

I still believe in the Saints. They’re 9th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a rate 81.82%, while their opponents are moving them at a 78.71%, a differential of 3.11% for the Saints. Why are they 2-3 then? Well, two of their losses came by a combined 5 points. They’ve allowed 3 return touchdowns in 5 games despite the fact that they’ve otherwise played well. They could easily be 4-1, with one loss on the road in Dallas, who is 5-1. They also have done this despite playing 3 of 5 games on the road, where they generally don’t play nearly as well as they do at home.

However, I don’t think this is the week they turn it around. I could see them losing this one and then ripping off 9 wins in their last 10 games, when they have 6 home games in 10 weeks and no really hard road game. However, going into Detroit is going to be too tough for a Saints team that has road issues. The Saints are 3-10 ATS on the road since the start of last season, as opposed to 8-1-1 ATS at home.

This Lions team is for real. While the Saints are 9th in rate of moving the chains differential, the Lions are 8th. They are only moving the chains at a 69.32% rate, but their opponents are moving the chains at a 64.88% rate, best in the NFL by a decent margin. That’s a differential of 4.44% over a whole percentage point better than the Saints. This line (2.5) suggests two things. One, that these two teams are equal. Two, that the Lions have a normal homefield advantage here over a poor road team. Neither of those two things are true. I know the Lions will be without Calvin Johnson, but the Saints will likely be without Jimmy Graham. I’m not that confident, but the Lions should be the right side.

Detroit Lions 23 New Orleans Saints 17

Pick against the spread: Detroit -2.5

Confidence: Low

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 5 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Saints, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3) at New Orleans Saints (1-3)

The Saints are 1-3, which has caused some people to hit the panic button for them, much like they did for the Packers last week (how did that work out?). The Saints did not look good in Dallas last week, but you have to look at more than their record. Three of their first four games have been on the road and they came very close to winning two of them. They are a few plays away from being 3-1 with a couple of decent road wins. If the Saints were 3-0 going into Dallas last week, would as big of a deal be made about their loss? I don’t think so. The Saints are still moving the chains at an 81.56% rate and while their defense is allowing opponents to move the chains at a 79.20% rate, I expect what was a solid defense last season to bounce back and they’re still positive in rate of moving the chains differential, coming in at 15th.

I like the Saints’ chances to bounce back this week. Not only is Drew Brees 19-5 ATS off of a loss as long as Sean Payton is on the sideline (including 14-2 ATS at home), the Saints are a much better team at home than they are on the road. The Saints are 32-10 ATS at home since 2008 in the games which Drew Brees and Sean Payton were involved.  On top of that, they are 17-0-1 ATS at home over their last 18 home games with Drew Brees and Sean Payton. They’ve won all 18 of those games by an average of about 20.3 points per game, with just three being decided by 10 points or less and just one being decided by less than 6 points.

They should be able to win by double digits here against a mediocre Buccaneers team that has to be exhausted in their 3rd straight road game. Underdogs are 50-65 ATS in their 3rd or more straight road game since 1989 and it makes sense. Meanwhile, the Saints are going into their bye so they’ll be completely focused here at home for a depleted, mediocre football team. Big home favorites almost always dominate going into the bye, to the tune of 53-17 ATS since 2002 (as home favorites of 6 or more).

New Orleans Saints 34 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

Pick against spread: New Orleans -10

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 4 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (1-2) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1)

This is a tough one. On one hand, the Saints’ road struggles are well documented and they’ve been especially bad over the past two seasons. Just this season, they’ve already lost in Atlanta and Cleveland as road favorites. The Saints are 3-9 ATS on the road since the start of last season, as opposed to 8-0-1 ATS at home and I’ve had a good deal of success picking their games almost solely taking them at home and going against them on the road against the spread.

However, it seems like this line is already compensating for that, maybe overcompensating, as the Saints are mere 3 point favorites in Dallas. The Saints are a lot better than their record suggests as they could easily be 3-0. They have a positive point differential and they rank 4th in rate of moving the chains differential on the strength of a dominant home offensive performance last week in which they scored 3 touchdowns on 7 drives (excluding a 14 play, 70 yard drive to end the game) and picked up 27 first downs in the process. The Saints are moving the chains at an 83.76% rate on the season, as opposed to 76.92% for their opponents, a differential of 6.86% that ranks 4th in the NFL and is comparable to their 8.12% differential from last season, which ranked 2nd. That’s despite playing 2 of 3 games on the road.

The Cowboys, meanwhile, are 2-1, but they’ve played 3 teams (San Francisco, Tennessee, St. Louis) that are a combined 3-6 and they could have easily lost last week in St. Louis. Their offense looks good, moving the chains at a 78.00% rate, but their opponents are moving the chains at a 76.47% rate. I know that’s actually better than the Saints defense, but it’s only three games in and the Saints are far more talented on that side of the ball so I don’t expect that to be that way at the end of the season and the Cowboys’ offense isn’t close to the Saints’ offense.

The Saints are also in a good spot before a home game against Tampa Bay. Teams are 97-74 ATS since 2008 before being double digit home favorites, which they very well good be next week. At the end of the day, I picked the Saints to win the Super Bowl and the Cowboys to finish 4-12 at the beginning of the season. Those might both end up being wrong, but I don’t see the Saints starting 1-3, while the Cowboys start 3-1 so as long as this line is at 3, I’m comfortable taking New Orleans, even on the road.

New Orleans Saints 34 Dallas Cowboys 27

Pick against spread: New Orleans -3

Confidence: Low

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Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 3 NFL Picks, Saints, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (1-1) at New Orleans Saints (0-2)

The Saints are 0-2, but I’m not too worried about them. If one of their offensive players had been able to tackle Tashaun Gipson on his eventual pick 6, there’s a very good chance they’d be 1-1 right now and heading home to face the Vikings as at least 12 point favorites. They weren’t able to do that and they lost as a result, but both of their first two games were very close and I’m not going to completely throw out my pre-season evaluation of this team just because of a few plays that didn’t go their way.

We’re getting a ton of line value with them as a result of public overreaction. The Saints as just 9.5 point home favorites is stealing considering how good they are at home. The Saints are 31-10 ATS at home since 2008 in the games which Drew Brees and Sean Payton were involved.  On top of that, they are 16-0-1 ATS at home over their last 16 home games with Drew Brees and Sean Payton. They’ve won all 17 of those games by an average of about 20.8 points per game, with just three being decided by 10 points or less and just one being decided by less than 6 points. They should be able to win by double digits here against an average at best Vikings team.

As I mentioned, this line is an overreaction. The Saints are moving the chains at an 81.81% rate, as opposed to 80.28% for their opponents. 0-2 teams are 20-11 ATS as 5+ point favorites since 1989. That tells us two things. One this type of situation doesn’t happen very often. Two, when it does, it’s usually for a reason and that reason seems to be that the favorite team is still very good despite their record. Finally, on top of that, Drew Brees usually bounces back well. He’s 18-5 ATS off of a loss as long as Sean Payton is on the sideline since 2008. He didn’t last week on the road, but he’s 13-2 at home in that situation. This is my pick of the week.

New Orleans Saints 34 Minnesota Vikings 13 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: New Orleans -9.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 2 NFL Picks, Browns, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (0-1) at Cleveland Browns (0-1)

Ordinarily, I don’t like to pick the Saints on the road. I was 15-2-1 ATS picking Saints games this year and it would be 15-1-2 if I had gotten -3 in the 49ers game and not -3.5, in an eventual New Orleans win by 3. I did that by blindly picking them at home and almost blindly picking against them on the road, only picking them in Chicago as 1 point favorites because I correctly believed the Bears to be overrated at that point. The Saints went 7-0-1 ATS at home last season, but they are 2-8-1 ATS on the road since the start of last season. Here they are 6.5 point favorites on the road in Cleveland and the public is all over the Saints, which makes me want to take the Browns.

However, I have a hard time taking the Browns without Jordan Cameron against a team like the Saints that, for all their road struggles, is still one of the most talented in the NFL. Drew Brees is also very good off of a loss in his career as long as Sean Payton is on the sideline, going 18-5 ATS in that situation since 2008. On top of that, teams are better in their 2nd straight road game than their 1st one. Since 2008, teams are 434-615 in their first road game, getting outscored by an average of 3.27 points per game. Meanwhile, teams are 181-205 in their second road game, getting outscored by an average of 0.66 points per game. Finally, the Saints have no distractions on the horizon with a home game against the Vikings up next. Teams are 44-32 ATS since 2008 as road favorites before being double digit home favorites. I’m not confident at all, but the Saints are my pick.

New Orleans Saints 27 Cleveland Browns 20

Pick against spread: New Orleans -6.5

Confidence: None

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