Saints

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Panthers, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (10-4) at Carolina Panthers (10-4)

The Saints lost last week in St. Louis in upset blowout fashion. However, they are in a good spot here in their 2nd straight road game. Historically, teams lose by an average of 3.07 points per game on the road after a home game and 2.07 points per game on the road after a road game, as far back as my data goes (1989). On top of that, teams that are in their 2nd straight road game (but not their 3rd straight) before another home game lose by an average of 1.44 points per game.

It seems that teams get used to being on the road in their 2nd straight road game, as long it is isn’t their 3rd straight road game and as long as they don’t have to go on the road again the following week. One trend that goes off of this is that teams are 101-63 ATS as road underdogs off of a road loss since 2008. This isn’t a new thing. Teams tend to cover at that rate historically no matter what year you use to cut off your sample size.

Going off of that, teams are 86-44 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs off of a road loss, before a home game, as long as it’s not their 3rd straight road game. Losing to the Rams last week might have actually helped them this week for that reason. Another reason why losing to the Rams last week might help them this week is how good the Saints have been off of a loss over the past 5 or so seasons. Since 2008, they are 17-3 ATS off of a loss when they have both Sean Payton coaching and Drew Brees playing.

However, there’s one really good reason not to be confident in the Saints this week. They lost to the Rams! In blowout fashion! I know that’s contradictory to the first 3 paragraphs, but it’s not like last week’s loss in St. Louis was some huge fluke that should just be ignored. It’s part of a long trend of disappointment for the Saints on the road. So far this season, they’ve lost in New England, New York to the Jets, and St. Louis, gotten blown out in Seattle, and almost lost in Tampa Bay and Atlanta, both of which were against the spread losses as road favorites.

I have a 13-1 ATS record picking Saints games this season and I would be 13-0-1 ATS if I had gotten New Orleans -3 against the 49ers a few weeks ago, which is where the line ended, instead of -3.5, where I got it. I’ve done that by betting them blindly at home and almost always going against them on the road. The only time I didn’t was when they were mere 1 point favorites in Chicago early this season, when the Bears were overrated. That’s their only road cover of the season as they are 1-6 ATS.

This isn’t just a 2013 problem for the Saints. Since 2008, they are 30-9 ATS (35-6 straight up) at home when Drew Brees is under center and Sean Payton is on the sideline. That’s as opposed to 17-24 ATS (24-19 straight up) on the road. How are they suddenly supposed to beat a very good Carolina team on the road when they’ve struggled this much (relatively) there thus far this season and in recent seasons? I know it’s their 2nd straight road game, which is why I’m not confident in Carolina either, but so were the New England and Seattle games.

Speaking of that very good Carolina team, they rank 1st in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential. They move the chains at a 76.40% rate, while their opponents move the chains at a 67.37% rate, a differential of 9.03%. The Saints aren’t too shabby in this area either, even after their loss to St. Louis, as they move the chains at a 77.42% rate, as opposed to 69.94% for their opponents, a differential of 7.78%. That’s 3rd in the NFL, but they still don’t do as well as Carolina and they definitely aren’t nearly as good away from the Superdome. This line suggests that these two teams are even on a neutral field. I don’t think that’s true.

On top of that, the Panthers are in a good spot as they will be road favorites of 3 or more in Atlanta next week, a situation teams are 62-40 ATS since 2012. Furthermore, teams are 113-84 ATS since 2002 as divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites. Again, I’m not that confident in the Panthers because there are things that work in New Orleans’ favor this week, but they should be the right side.

Carolina Panthers 27 New Orleans Saints 20

Pick against spread: Carolina -3

Confidence: Low

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New Orleans Saints at St. Louis Rams: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 15 NFL Picks, Rams, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (10-3) at St. Louis Rams (5-8)

So far this season, I’m 12-1 ATS picking Saints game and I would be 12-0-1 ATS if I had gotten New Orleans -3 against the 49ers a few weeks ago, which is where the line ended, instead of -3.5, where I got it. I’ve done that by betting them blindly at home and almost always going against them on the road. The only time I didn’t was when they were mere 1 point favorites in Chicago early this season, when the Bears were overrated.

That’s the only time they’ve covered on the road this season, going 1-5 ATS and 3-3 SU, including a loss in New York to the Jets and a blowout loss in Seattle and near losses in Atlanta and Tampa Bay. That win in Chicago was their only win by more than 4 points on the road all season and it was by just 8 points. Over the past 4 seasons, they have just 6 road wins by a touchdown or more. As a result, they are 3-7 ATS as road favorites of 6+ dating back to 2010.

However, I don’t think we’re getting enough line value with the Rams to confidently take them here. The Rams are not very good. They are moving the chains at a 69.50% rate, as opposed to 73.44% for their opponents, a differential of -3.95% that is 25th in the NFL. The Saints, meanwhile, are 3rd in differential, moving the chains at a 77.18% rate, as opposed to 69.13% for their opponents, a differential of 8.05%. That suggests this line should be around 9. Of course, that doesn’t take into account the Saints’ road issues, but I have to feel a team has at least a chance to win to confident take them as underdogs of a touchdown or less and I don’t feel that way about the Rams. I’m going to take them and hope for a close game, but I’m not confident at all.

New Orleans Saints 24 St. Louis Rams 20

Pick against spread: St. Louis +6.5

Confidence: None

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Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Panthers, Saints, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (9-3) at New Orleans Saints (9-3)

The Saints got blown out in Seattle last week 34-7, but there’s not a lot of shame in getting blown out in Seattle. They have the most powerful homefield advantage in the NFL and they also might be the best team in the NFL. This week, the Saints return home, where they have probably the 2nd most powerful homefield advantage in the NFL. The Saints haven’t lost against the spread, or straight up, at home under Sean Payton since 2010, 15 games.

Their only non-cover of that time period was three weeks ago at home as 3 point favorites against the 49ers, a 3 point win and push. Even that game should not have been that close, as they won despite losing the turnover battle by 2. They had 23 first downs to 12 for the 49ers and could have won by much more if it wasn’t for a muffed punt and a fumbled pick six. New Orleans at home is almost always as auto-bet. They’re 30-13 ATS as home favorites since 2008, including 27-10 ATS under Sean Payton.

This line would ordinarily suggest these two teams are even, as home field advantage is usually 3 points. They are very evenly matched teams. The Panthers rank 1st in the NFL in terms of rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 79% rate, as opposed to 69% for their opponents. The Saints, meanwhile, are 2nd, as they move the chains at an 80% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents. In terms of DVOA, the Panthers are 3rd, as opposed to 4th for their opponents.

However, 3 points is not the appropriate adjustment for the Saints’ home field advantage. This line should be at least 5 or 6, instead of 3, even if we agree these two teams are even, which I think they are. The Saints also usually dominate after a loss, going 20-8 ATS off of a loss since 2008, including 16-4 ATS under Sean Payton. They’re also 11-3 ATS at home at night since Drew Brees came to town in 2006. They should put up a dominant performance here. I’m very confident they’ll win by at least 3. It’s worth noting I’m 12-0 ATS picking Saints games this season.

New Orleans Saints 31 Carolina Panthers 17

Pick against spread: New Orleans -3

Confidence: High

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New Orleans Saints: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#3)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Saints, Uncategorized

Last week: 3 (+0)

Record: 9-2

Like Denver/New England could have been AFC Championship part 1 last week, Seattle/New Orleans could be NFC Championship part 1 this week. There are several reasons why. Of course, these are currently the two best teams in the NFC record wise, but both teams are also dominant at home. That means, if they get a top-2 seed and a first round bye, they are basically in the NFC Championship game, with a bye and a home game before that. Once there, home field advantage is going to be incredibly important because of how good these two teams are at home. In fact, if we assume the winner of this game gets the #1 seed, the winner of this game probably has a better chance than not of going all the way to the Super Bowl. This might be even bigger than the NFC Championship game because it could decide the NFC Championship game.

Week 12 Studs

RB Pierre Thomas

LG Ben Grubbs

LE Akiem Hicks

RE Cameron Jordan

Week 12 Duds

MLB Curtis Lofton

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New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 13 NFL Picks, Saints, Seahawks, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (9-2) at Seattle Seahawks (10-1)

There’s a pretty powerful trend that says when two teams who are about to undergo a scheduling dynamic change (from dog to favorite or favorite to dog) play each other, the dog covers more often than not. The favorite is distracted by their upcoming game as underdogs, while the underdog has no distractions coming up considering they will be favorites next. This game does fit that trend. The Seahawks are home favorites here and will be road underdogs in San Francisco next week, while the Saints will be home favorites for the Panthers. Teams are 52-86 ATS as home favorites before being road underdogs when their opponent will next be home favorites.

However, as is the case with all trends, you can’t just follow it blindly. Next week’s game in San Francisco is going to be a big deal, but I don’t think the Seahawks are going to overlook a game that could easily be NFC Championship part 1 the way Denver/New England could have been AFC Championship part 1 last week. The Seahawks already have a 3 game lead on the division, but they’re only up a game over the Saints for the #1 seed and home field advantage throughout the NFC. Likewise, the Saints could be equally distracted with the Carolina game next week that could be for the NFC South championship. I don’t think one team is in a better spot than the other in terms of upcoming distractions, despite what the trend says.

There are several reasons why this could easily be NFC Championship part 1. Of course, these are currently the two best teams in the NFC record wise, but both teams are also dominant at home. That means, if they get a top-2 seed and a first round bye, they are basically in the NFC Championship game, with a bye and a home game before that. Once there, home field advantage is going to be incredibly important because of how good these two teams are at home. In fact, if we assume the winner of this game gets the #1 seed, the winner of this game probably has a better chance than not of going all the way to the Super Bowl. This might be even bigger than the NFC Championship game because it could decide the NFC Championship game.

How good is Seattle at home? Well, since 2007, they are 37-17 ATS at home, including 21-9 ATS as home favorites. They have been especially good over the past two years, as they’ve broken out as an elite team, going 10-3 ATS since the start of the 2012 season. They’ve won all 13 games at home over the past 2 seasons by an average of 17.9 points per game. The Saints are equally dominant at home, but they aren’t at home here.

Drew Brees’ quarterback rating on the road since 2008 is about 12 points lower and this year, they’ve lost in New York to the Jets and in New England. They also barely won in Tampa Bay and Atlanta. Only their 8 point win in Chicago has been impressive for the Saints on the road this season and even that wasn’t that impressive. The Saints couldn’t beat the Seahawks in Seattle a few years ago in the playoffs and that was when they were a significantly better team than the Seahawks. That’s not the case here at all so the Saints could really be in trouble.

I’m not going against the Seahawks at home here against a Saints team that displays a similar home/road disparity to them. If this was in New Orleans, I would take the Saints, but it isn’t. I’m 11-0 against the spread on Saints games this year, so I feel like I have a very good read on them. Also helping the Seahawks is the fact that they are coming off a bye. They’ve had an extra week to prepare for this. Great teams usually make great use of that extra week. Teams with a winning percentage of 90% or better are 25-11 ATS as home off of a bye since 1989. I’m pretty confident the Seahawks cover here.

Seattle Seahawks 31 New Orleans Saints 20

Pick against spread: Seattle -6

Confidence: Medium

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New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, Falcons, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (8-2) at Atlanta Falcons (2-8)

This line was at 6.5 last week. Now it’s at 9 and the public is still all over the Saints. The Saints are awesome and the Falcons suck. How can the Saints not win by double digits right? Well, that seems to be what the public is thinking as the public is all over the Saints. That alone leads me to think about going with Atlanta. Atlanta hasn’t appeared to put forth much effort over the past few weeks, losing 4 straight by a combined 74 points. It’s very possible that they’ve just quit as they are unaccustomed to this kind of losing. However, I think they’re still capable of putting forth a decent performance at home and keep this competitive in a game they actually care about, with the rival Saints coming to town.

They have always done well off of a loss in the Mike Smith era, at least until this year. Off of a loss, they are 20-10 ATS since 2008, though just 2-5 ATS this season. I think they can summon some of that for this one, now that they’ve officially hit rock bottom and can’t go any deeper. They’ve also been a very good home team in the Mike Smith era, going 30-12 straight up. They are just 2-3 there this year, but they’ve still been a much better home team than road team and of their recent rough stretch, only one game was at home.

The Saints, meanwhile, have not been the same team on the road over the past few years. Drew Brees’ quarterback rating on the road since 2008 is about 12 points lower and this year, they’ve lost in New York to the Jets and in New England. They also barely won in Tampa Bay. Only their 8 point win in Chicago has been impressive for the Saints on the road this season and even that wasn’t that impressive. The Saints are an incredibly dominant home team, a huge part of the reason why they are moving the chains at an 82% rate, as opposed to 69% for their opponents, but they’re not the same on the road.

I think this line might be a little inflated. The Saints could also be caught looking forward to Seattle next week and Carolina the week after that, after last week’s big win over the 49ers. I’m not confident at all though because it’s very possible the Falcons have just mailed in the season and the Saints are legitimately a top-3 team in the NFL, while the Falcons might be a bottom-3 team, but the Falcons should be the right side.

New Orleans Saints 34 Atlanta Falcons 27

Pick against spread: Atlanta +9

Confidence: None

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New Orleans Saints: 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#3)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Saints, Uncategorized

Last week: 3 (+0)

Record: 7-2

After the Saints’ absolute trouncing of the Cowboys, in which they won by 32, despite muffing a punt, missing a field goal, and not recovering an opponent’s onside kick, they now lead the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential. They are moving the chains at an 82% rate, as opposed to 70% for opponents. This makes sense, as the Saints not only set the single game record for first downs, but also for first down differential (+31). They now have won their last 14 home games under Sean Payton by an average of 22 points per game. I don’t think anyone is beating them there. The Saints’ game in Seattle in a few weeks might as well be the NFC Championship given how good those two teams are at home and how the winner will almost definitely get homefield advantage through the NFC.

Week 10 Studs

QB Drew Brees

RB Pierre Thomas

FB Jed Collins

WR Marques Colston

RT Zach Strief

LG Ben Grubbs

RG Jahri Evans

C Brian La Puente

RE Cameron Jordan

Week 10 Duds

None

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San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 11 NFL Picks, 49ers, Saints, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (6-3) at New Orleans Saints (7-2)

It’s arguable the Saints’ win over the Cowboys was the most lopsided contest in NFL history. While the Saints set the NFL record with 40 first downs, the Cowboys ran just 43 plays. The Saints’ +31 first down margin was the best in NFL history. The closest came when the Steelers had 29 more first downs than the Browns in 1999 in a 43-0 victory. They outgained the Cowboys by 431 yards, the most lopsided yardage battle since the Patriots in a 59-0 victory over the Titans in 2009. It would have been even more lopsided if the Saints hadn’t muffed a punt and the Cowboys hadn’t recovered an onside kick. Because of those 2 things, the Saints had just 8 drives and scored touchdowns on 7 of them. It was an absurd destruction.

The Saints have now not just won, but covered in 14 straight home games under Sean Payton. They’ve won these games by an average of 22 points per game, with only two being decided by 10 points or less and none being decided by fewer than 6 points. As a result of last week, the Saints now lead the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential. They are moving the chains at an 82% rate, as opposed to 70% for opponents. The 49ers, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 72% rate, as opposed to 69% for their opponents, ranking 10th in the NFL. That suggests this line should be around 9 points, before you even take into account the Saints’ home dominance.

So Saints -3.5 should be a no brainer right? Well, not necessarily. The 49ers are coming off of a loss to the Panthers and they have been deadly off of a loss in the Jim Harbaugh era. They are 6-3 ATS off a loss under Jim Harbaugh, including 8-3 ATS if you take into account week 1 games off of a playoff loss. If you look closer, that’s even more impressive as those two non-covers included a 14 point win as 16.5 point favorites and a 7 point win as 7.5 point favorites, a game they would have covered against the Seahawks if Jim Harbaugh hadn’t declined a safety, in favor of just running the clock out.

With the exception of a fluky home loss to the Colts, they have only lost back-to-back games once in the Jim Harbaugh era. If you exclude that Colts game, they have won all 8 of their regular season games off of a loss by an average of 18 points per game. This line has actually shifted past the key number of 3 in the past week, as it was at 2.5 last week and the public is still all over the Saints. I hate backing huge publicly backed sides and that could be an overreaction to the 49ers loss to a very underrated Panthers team. Of course, it could also be a proper reaction to the Saints’ dominant home performance over the Cowboys.

The 49ers are also in a good spot. Non-divisional road dogs are 37-24 ATS before being non-divisional road favorites. The 49ers have no distractions on the horizon with a trip to Washington up next. The Saints, meanwhile, are in a bad spot as favorites before a Thursday Night Game. Teams are 27-50 ATS in that spot since 2008, including 11-26 ATS before a divisional game. We saw both the Titans and Colts fall victim to this big time last week, both losing straight up as huge home favorites. However, it’s unlikely that the Saints overlook the 49ers in favor of a trip to the 2-7 Falcons next week.

Besides, teams are 50-24 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites since 2008. Teams are 9-11 ATS in that situation before a Thursday Night Game since 1989. That’s not a big sample size and it’s not a strong trend or anything, but I think, if anything, the non-divisional home favorites before divisional road favorites trend should cancel out the Thursday Night trend. I don’t think the Saints will be nearly as distracted as the Colts and Titans were last week, if they are at all.

It’s not a massive play on the Saints or anything, but I think it’s essentially an auto-bet on the Saints at home at this point. The Saints could also carry over momentum from last week’s win, as teams are 45-28 ATS since 1989 off of a game in which they score 48 or more points. If Vernon Davis is ruled out with his concussion, I’ll make this a high confidence pick because Colin Kaepernick has been pretty lost without him this season, but for now it’s a medium confidence pick.

New Orleans Saints 27 San Francisco 49ers 17

Pick against spread: New Orleans -3.5

Confidence: Medium

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New Orleans Saints: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#3)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Saints, Uncategorized

Last week: 3 (+0)

Record: 6-2

The Saints aren’t nearly as good on the road, but I don’t envision them losing at home for the rest of the season, against Dallas, San Francisco, Carolina, and Tampa Bay. On the road, they have to go to Carolina and Seattle and could easily lose both. However, with Aaron Rodgers going down for an extended period of time, the Saints don’t have much competition for a first round bye and at least one home playoff game, which would essentially put them in the NFC Championship Game given their home dominance.

Week 10 Studs

DT Brodrick Bunkley

Week 10 Duds

FS Rafael Bush

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