Saints

Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Saints, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (5-4) at New Orleans Saints (6-2)

The Saints lost in New York last week to the Jets and it was viewed as a huge upset. Technically it was, the Saints were favored by 7 points, but I don’t know why anyone was shocked. The Saints lost in New England. The Patriots lost in New York. The Saints aren’t nearly as good of a team on the road as at home, but this week they return home. They’ve not only won 13 straight games at home under Sean Payton, but they’ve also covered 13 straight. In those 13 games, they’ve outscored opponents by an average of 20.9 points per game. That’s average and I’d say the Cowboys are pretty average. They should get back to that this week. They’re also very good off of a loss over the past few years, going 19-8 ATS off of a loss since 2008.

Back to the Cowboys being an average team, they have a great offense which moves the chains at a 76% rate, but their defense allows opponents to move the chains at a 77% rate. If there was any doubt they had a bad defense, they allowed Christian Ponder to complete 25 of 37 for 236 yards, 1 touchdown, and an interception last week. Christian Ponder! The week before that, they allowed the Lions to generate 623 yards of offense and only almost won because they won the turnover battle by 4. They won’t be able to do that every week and their +10 turnover margin is going to be unsustainable going forward. They get DeMarcus Ware back this week, but that’s not going to solve all of their problems. Drew Brees is going to torch them. They seem to miss Rob Ryan, who, oddly enough, is the Saints’ defensive coordinator this year.

Ryan has done a great job with the Saints’ defense. Their numbers haven’t been as good lately as they’ve faced tougher competition, but they are still holding opponents to a 71% rate of moving the chains. This was after ranking 31st in points allowed last season and allowing the most yards in NFL history last season. Their offense is obviously still explosive, moving the chains at an 80% rate, giving them a differential that is 3rd in the NFL. They deserve to be favored more than 6.5 points, before you even take into account how good they are at home. This is going to be a rough situation for the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. I have a lot of confidence in the Saints. They’re also my Survivor Pick this week.

New Orleans Saints 37 Dallas Cowboys 23 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: New Orleans -6.5

Confidence: High

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New Orleans Saints at New York Jets: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 9 NFL Picks, Jets, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (6-1) at New York Jets (4-4)

This game features by far the biggest line movement of the week, as the line has shifted 3.5 points since last week, as a result of the Jets’ 49-9 loss in Cincinnati last week. The line is now at a touchdown in favor of New Orleans and the public is still all over them. I think that’s a huge overreaction and, of course, I love fading teams that the public is all over as well. Sure, the Jets looked awful last week, but that was still one game.

That was completely uncharacteristic for their defense, which is still allowing opponents to move the chains at a very solid 70% rate. Offensively, they are moving the chains at just a 69% rate, so that’s obviously their biggest problem, but this line is still way too high. The Saints are moving the chains at an 80% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents, but I still have the line calculated at around 4 or 4.5, so we’re getting significant line value with the Jets as a result of what happened last week and the subsequent line movement.

That’s usually what happens after a team gets blown out. Teams are 43-23 ATS since 2002 after a loss by 35 or more, including 19-6 ATS as home dogs. Teams that are in that situation tend to be underrated, overlooked, and embarrassed and I think the Jets would qualify as all three right now. Remember, they are still 4-4 and have been alternating wins and losses all season. I wouldn’t overlook them.

The Jets seem to especially be good in situations like this when the media is destroying them. That’s just something I’ve noticed with them over the past couple of years. I mentioned they’ve been alternating wins and losses all season. They are also 4-2 ATS off of a loss by 14 or more over the past 2 seasons, which just puts that into a number. Rex Ryan is very good at getting his team motivated by the media trashing them, which happens more often that it should.

The Saints, meanwhile, are not as good on the road as they are at home. Drew Brees’ quarterback rating drops about 11 points on the road historically, dating back to 2008. This year, in 3 home games, they’ve almost lost in winless Tampa Bay, they won by 8 in Chicago, which isn’t as impressive as it seemed at the time, and they lost in New England in a game they trailed most of the way against a Patriot team that isn’t nearly as good as they’ve been in recent years. They could easily lose in New York and I really like the Jets’ chances of covering here.

New Orleans Saints 19 New York Jets 17

Pick against spread: NY Jets +7

Confidence: High

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New Orleans Saints: 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#3)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Saints, Uncategorized

Last week: 3 (+0)

Record: 6-1

The Saints have now won and covered in 13 straight games at home under Sean Payton. They aren’t quite the same team on the road, but, other than Seattle, their next toughest road games are in Carolina and Atlanta. They could easily win all of their home games (Dallas, Carolina, San Francisco, Tampa Bay) and lose maximum 2 road games, finish 13-3 and be in great position with a 1st round bye and home field advantage. The Jimmy Graham injury hurts, but he was still very dangerous in a limited role last week, catching 3 passes for 37 yards and 2 touchdowns on 19 snaps.

Week 8 Studs

RT Zach Strief

TE Ben Watson

ROLB Junior Gallete

Week 8 Duds

C Brian La Puente

MLB Curtis Lofton

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Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 8 NFL Picks, Bills, Saints, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (3-4) at New Orleans Saints (6-1)

I think the Bills are an underrated team. The Bills may just be 3-4, but they’ve been pretty decent this season. They’ve had a tough schedule, with each of their opponents being 3-4 or better at this point. They’ve been underdogs in all 7 games and they have covered 5 of 7 spreads. The only game they’ve lost by more than a touchdown came in Cleveland after a pick six by backup Jeff Tuel. They beat a pair of top-15 teams on my Power Rankings in Buffalo (Baltimore, Carolina) and almost beat New England and Cincinnati.

Their defense has been strong, allowing opponents to move the chains at just a 71% rate and they’ll only get better with Stephon Gilmore and Jairus Byrd healthy. Offensively, they are actually one of two teams to have scored 20 points or more in every game, along with Denver. Thaddeus Lewis isn’t great, but he can do enough for the Bills to win a few games going forward. That being said, I think this line is pretty reasonable at 12 points. They are moving the chains at a 68% rate offensively, giving them a -3% rate of moving the chains rate. The Saints, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 79% rate, as opposed to 70% for their opponents, a +9% differential, 3rd in the NFL.

The Bills, however, have been much better at home, covering all 4 spreads, but they covered their first spread of the season on the road last week. This is a different situation. Unlike Miami last week, the Saints are not overrated. The Dolphins, despite their record, are actually 29th in rate of moving the chains differential. The Saints also aren’t in a bad spot like the Dolphins were last week. While the Dolphins had a game in New England to distract them, the Saints go to New York to play the Jets next week. Since 2002, 7+ point non-divisional home favorites are 65-38 ATS before being road non-divisional favorites.

The Bills, meanwhile, are actually the ones in the bad spot. They might not be as focused as they’d need to in order to hang with the Saints, after a big upset in Miami last week and a home game against the Chiefs next week. Teams are 18-28 ATS off of a close win (3 points or more) as 7+ point road underdogs against a divisional opponent. Meanwhile, non-divisional road underdogs are 80-111 ATS since 2002 before being non-divisional home favorites.

That being said, the biggest difference is just how tough of a place New Orleans is to play for a road team, particularly a young Buffalo team that doesn’t have experience going to a place like New Orleans, a non-conference foe. The Saints have not just won, but also covered their last 12 home games under Sean Payton, all 9 (including a playoff game) in 2011 and the first 3 of the season. They’re also 18-8 ATS since 2008 off of a loss. Two weeks removed from that killer loss in New England, they should be completely focused to blow out the Bills at home. This is a big line, but the Saints definitely seem like the right side.

New Orleans Saints 34 Buffalo Bills 13

Pick against spread: New Orleans -12

Confidence: Medium

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New Orleans Saints: 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#3)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Saints, Uncategorized

Last week: 3 (+0)

Record: 5-1

The Saints are no longer undefeated, but they lost in a game that was literally as close as could be and on to the road to another top-5 team. They should still finish with 12 or 13 wins and be this year’s team to goes from out of the playoffs to a first round bye. Because of the nature of the two team’s home field advantage, whether or not they get the top seed, and a home game against Seattle if they were to meet, determines whether or not they win the NFC, at least in my opinion.

Week 6 Studs

LE Tom Johnson

Week 6 Duds

MLB David Hawthorne

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New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 6 NFL Picks, Patriots, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (5-0) at New England Patriots (4-1)

The Patriots had their worst offensive performance since 2006 last week. It was the first time since 2006 that they scored fewer than 7 points in a game. On top of that, Brady hadn’t had a completion percentage that low since 2007. Fortunately, help should be on its way. Stevan Ridley will be back to give them another option on the ground. Danny Amendola, who played on just 62% of snaps last week in his first game back from injury, is expected to be a starter and play close to a full snap count. The biggest boost, however, is that Rob Gronkowski is expected to return.

Gronkowski might not be 100% in his first game back, but his presence on the field alone is going to help them tremendously and he should also be very productive in the passing game, especially around the goal line. The Patriots are 31st in red zone scoring percentage this season, scoring a touchdown on just 35.3% red zone opportunities, only ahead of Jacksonville. This is opposed to last year, when they scored a touchdown on 67.5% of red zone opportunities, 3rd in the NFL. The absence of the 6-6 Gronkowski, who has scored 36 times in his last 35 full games, undoubtedly has a ton to do with that.

Over the past 2 seasons, Rob Gronkowski has played in 10 full games. In those 10 games, Tom Brady completed 65.1% of his passes for an average of 7.6 YPA, 21 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. He’s missed 13 games, including playoffs. In those 13 games, Brady has completed 58.1% of his passes for an average of 7.0 YPA, 24 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. Gronk returning won’t solve all of his problems, but it’ll have a significant impact.

I also expect Brady himself to play better. He didn’t play well against the Bengals. It wasn’t just on his receiving corps. However, this is the type of situation he usually dominates in, when he’s doubted and when he’s facing a tough opponent. In his career, Tom Brady is 26-11 straight up against opponents with a better record than his. Just think about that. Teams usually win 38.4% against teams with a better record than the other one. Tom Brady has won 70.3% of such games. Against the spread, he’s even better, going 27-9-1 ATS, including 10-4 ATS even as favorites. Even though the Patriots are being favored here, most people don’t expect them to win. The public is pounding the Saints as underdogs. Usually, the public loses and the odds makers win. There’s a reason for that.

The Patriots aren’t big favorites though, as favorites of just a point and a half. They pretty much need to win straight up. Tom Brady usually dominates against the spread in situations where he just needs to win straight up, going 39-15 ATS in his career in that situation, including 12-3 ATS at home. Tom Brady also usually dominates off a loss. He is 26-15 ATS off a loss, including 16-8 ATS off a loss as favorites. Since 2003, he’s lost back-to-back games just 5 times, going 29-5 SU off a loss. I expect the Patriots to be at their sharpest in their biggest test this season here and win. Remember, their defense has been incredible, as opponents have moved the chains on 67% of chances this season. Even without Vince Wilfork, they played great defense against the Bengals.

This would be a higher confidence play if not for two things. One is the possibility that Brady is more at fault for their slow start than we think. The Patriots are moving the chains on 70% of chances this season. For a team that was moving the chains at about an 85% rate in 2012, that’s unheard of. Tom Brady needs to take some of the blame. He hasn’t played well this season.

Discomfort with new receivers is a factor, but he has a negative passing grade on ProFootballFocus, who usually does a good job of determining who is at fault. It’s possible he’s turning into late career Dan Marino. He definitely has diminished arm strength, but that alone wouldn’t hold him back. Peyton Manning has diminished arm strength, but that doesn’t seem to affect him. It’s something to watch going forward and something that holds me back from being too confident in the Patriots.

The other is just how good the Saints have been playing this season. They are moving the chains at an 81% rate offensively. That’s no surprise, considering how well the Saints’ offense has played since Drew Brees came to town. However, they have been very good defensively as well, as opponents have moved the chains on 68% of opportunities, which is absurd considering they set the NFL record for yards allowed last season and ranked 31st in the NFL in points allowed.

Rob Ryan’s new defensive scheme has made a huge difference and allowed young players like Cameron Jordan and Junior Galette to break out. That 13% differential is best in the NFL, even ahead of Denver, whose defense is suspect. I really wish we were getting points with the Patriots. However, they should still be the right side and I’m pretty confident in that. One final note, if Gronk is surprisingly ruled out, I’ll drop this to a low confidence pick. Don’t actually put any money on the Patriots until Gronk’s status is confirmed.

Final update: Gronk is out, but I’ve decided to leave this as a medium confidence pick. The Patriots’ history with Tom Brady in this type of game is too powerful to ignore. I’m running the risk that these aren’t the same old Patriots anymore, but it’s a risk I’m willing to take.

New England Patriots 27 New Orleans Saints 20

Pick against spread: New England -1

Confidence: Medium

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New Orleans Saints: 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#3)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Saints, Uncategorized

Last week: 3 (+0)

Record: 5-0

I honestly feel like this team is as good as the Seahawks and Broncos. They are deadly at home and they proved last week they can play well on the road as well. They move the chains on 81% of opportunities and opponents move the chains on 68% of opportunities, a league leading differential. This week is their biggest test of the season in New England. It’ll be a benchmark game for both teams.

Week 5 Studs

QB Drew Brees

RE Cameron Jordan

Week 5 Duds

CB Jabari Greer

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New Orleans Saints: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#3)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Saints, Uncategorized

Last week: 3

Record: 4-0

Right now, I think the Saints are the 3rd best team in the NFL and could compete with Seattle or Denver on a neutral field. They are 3rd in the NFL in terms of moving the chains, doing so on 81% of chances. A strong offense is nothing new in New Orleans. Even with Sean Payton gone last year, the Saints were 4th in the NFL in points scored behind only the Patriots and Broncos. However, they are also playing very well on defense, allowing opponents to move the chains on just 66% of chances, 3rd best in the NFL. This is a huge change from last year, when they allowed the 2nd most points per game in the league and surrendered the most yards in NFL history. They are +15% in differential in terms moving the chains, as opposed to how often their opponents are. That’s the best in the NFL through 4 games.

Week 4 Studs

QB Drew Brees

ROLB Junior Galette

Week 4 Duds

None

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New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 5 NFL Picks, Bears, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (4-0) at Chicago Bears (3-1)

The Saints and Dolphins both went into Monday Night’s game at 3-0, after going 7-9 last season, but at the end of the day, it was the Saints who proved they were for real, while the Dolphins looked like a team that was never very good to begin with. The Saints obviously dominated in a 21 point win and it’s not like the Dolphins were some scrubs. They’re a decent football team. Right now, I think the Saints are the 3rd best team in the NFL and could compete with Seattle or Denver on a neutral field.

They are 3rd in the NFL in terms of converting 1st and 10 for a subsequent set of first downs, converting on 81%. A strong offense is nothing new in New Orleans. Even with Sean Payton gone last year, the Saints were 3rd in the NFL in points scored behind only the Patriots and Broncos. However, they are also playing very well on defense, allowing opponents to convert 1st and 10 on just 66% of chances, 3rd best in the NFL. This is a huge change from last year, when they allowed the 2nd most points per game in the league and surrendered the most yards in NFL history.

Rob Ryan has really turned things around as the Saints have held all 4 of their opponents to 17 points or fewer, something they did just 3 times all last season. Junior Galette and Cameron Jordan have broken out as among the best players in the NFL at their respective positions in their new 3-4 defense, with Jordan even playing like an All-Pro. As a result, they are +15% in differential in terms of how often they are converting for a subsequent set of downs, as opposed to how often their opponents are. That’s the best in the NFL through 4 games. The Saints also should be able to continue their momentum from their huge Monday Night Football win into this week. Since 2002, teams are 29-13 ATS off Monday Night Football wins of 21 points or more.

The Bears, meanwhile, are 3-1, but they aren’t as good as their record. Their defense is not playing nearly as well as it did last season, forcing just 12 punts all season. Only Philadelphia has forced fewer among teams who have played all 4 games. Yes, they’ve forced 14 takeaways, but they can’t continue relying on forcing takeaways to stop drives. They won’t recover 2 out of every 3 of their opponent’s fumbles all season. They didn’t recover fumbles at the same rate against Detroit and lost the turnover battle, surrendering 40 points in the process, the first time the Bears had surrendered 40+ points in a game since 2009.

I think they miss Lovie Smith and Rod Marinelli defensively, while over 30 veterans Julius Peppers, Charles Tillman, and Lance Briggs are underachieving. As a result, they are allowing opponents to convert for a subsequent set of first downs 75% of the time, right in the middle of the pack. They actually have a negative differential in this aspect, converting about 73% of the time offensively. This would be a Pick of the Week if I trusted the Saints more on the road, but I feel like this line should be at least -3 favor of New Orleans. It’s really an elite team versus a more pedestrian/slightly above average team and the Saints 20-23 ATS road record since 2008 isn’t terrible. This could be a statement road win for the Saints.

New Orleans Saints 24 Chicago Bears 13

Pick against spread: New Orleans PK

Confidence: High

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