Saints

Defensive Scheme Changes: Falcons, Saints, Browns, Eagles, Cowboys

stevenlourie Browns, Cowboys, Eagles, Falcons, News, Saints

4-3 to 3-4

Atlanta Falcons

This one isn’t confirmed, but Falcons’ defensive coordinator Mike Nolan is a 3-4 guy. He did a great job in his first season with the Falcons, coaching them to a top-5 scoring defense, despite having to run a 4-3, because he wisely realized they didn’t have the personnel for an immediate switch to a 3-4. Still, you have to figure he’s going to want to go to a 3-4 eventually and going into his 2nd year with the team, there are rumors, though nothing confirmed, that he may be taking them to a 3-4 base this season. They already ran a lot of 3-3 looks last year, as they frequently used sub packages.

If there were to go to a 3 man line full time in 2013, it would resemble the one from their 3-3 front. Jonathan Babineaux would be a 3-4 defensive end and Peria Jerry, Corey Peters, or Vance Walker could play the other 3-4 end spot, though Peters was terrible last year and Walker is a free agent. Either way, they do need a true nose tackle, something this roster lacks. There’s a reason they ranked 29th against the run in 2013. If he’s even re-signed, Walker is their biggest tackle on the roster at about 305, which isn’t going to cut it.

Going to the linebacking corps, defensive ends John Abraham and Kroy Biermann would move to the 3-4 outside linebacker spot. Whether or not they will fit the new position remains to be seen, but either way, they need help at the position. Abraham turns 35 in May, while Biermann is a marginal and inconsistent starter, and their depth is suspect at best. Outside linebackers Sean Weatherspoon and Stephen Nicholas would move inside to middle linebacker, though Nicholas should just be a base package run stuffer and someone else should come in for him in sub packages. Akeem Dent is a candidate, but it also may be someone not currently on their roster.

New Orleans Saints

After ranking among the worst in the NFL in every single defensive category, including 31st in opponent’s scoring, the Saints have rightfully fired defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. They apparently want to do anything they can to change things up as they are reportedly interested in hiring a defensive coordinator with a 3-4 background to run that scheme in New Orleans. As would have been the case if they had stayed in a 4-3, they still need more talent upfront.

Cameron Jordan might benefit the most from the scheme change, as the collegiate 3-4 end had been struggling as a 4-3 end in the NFL. Opposite him, however, they have nothing and someone like Sheldon Richardson will be an option at 15th overall in the 2013 NFL Draft. At nose tackle, expect Brodrick Bunkley and Akiem Hicks to hold down the fort. Both could also play end as well, I suppose, but that will still be a need.

Like 3-4 defensive end, rush linebacker is now a huge need. Will Smith will almost definitely be cut. Not only is he overpaid and not very good anymore, but he’s a terrible fit for a 3-4. That leaves the Saints with nickel rushers Martez Wilson and Junior Galette at the position. They’ll bring someone else in. Someone like Dion Jordan or Ezekiel Ansah will also be an option at 15th overall. Expect them to take a 3-4 defensive end and outside linebacker, in either order, with their first 2 picks of the 2013 NFL Draft. Curtis Lofton and David Hawthorne, meanwhile, are obvious fits at middle linebacker and should be able to have bounce back years in the new scheme. Jonathan Vilma probably would have been cut either way, but this pretty much seals the deal.

Cleveland Browns

The Browns made the opposite transition a few years ago, switching from a 3-4 to a 4-3 after the 2010 season, with Pat Shurmur coming in. That should help ease the transition. However, they do have a bunch of new front 7 players. Jabaal Sheard is their best pass rusher and I don’t think he’ll have much of an issue moving from 4-3 end to 3-4 outside linebacker. They’ll need a complement for him, opposite him, but they would have needed another pass rusher regardless. Expect them to target rush linebackers at #6 overall.

The reason they need another pass rush is because Juqua Parker is a 35 year old free agent this off-season. He split snaps opposite Sheard last year with Frostee Rucker and frankly they weren’t very good either. Rucker, however, may be a better fit as a 3-4 end. Between him, Billy Winn, John Hughes, Phil Taylor, and Ahytba Rubin, they should be set on the defensive line. That’s five guys who can play significant snaps, including two, Rubin and Taylor, who have the size to play on the nose.

At inside linebacker, D’Qwell Jackson will remain, as he did the last time they used a 3-4. Either Craig Robertson, Kaluka Maiava, or James-Michael Johnson will play next to him. Chris Gocong is another candidate, provided he isn’t cut, owed 4.45 million in 2013, coming off an Achilles tear that ended his 2012 season. Rush linebacker is really their only need area up front, even for depth purposes. They look pretty set at all other positions, but rush linebacker is probably the most important one.

Philadelphia Eagles

Like the Saints, the Eagles have not formally hired a defensive coordinator, but new Head Coach Chip Kelly is a believer in the 3-4 scheme and they are expected to hire a 3-4 defensive coordinator, likely San Francisco defensive backs coach Ed Donatell. They will need to wait until after the Super Bowl to do so, but that’s probably the reason why they have yet to hire anyone.

The scheme change might be best for Fletcher Cox and Cullen Jenkins, who will both move both from defensive tackle to defensive end. Both are natural fits for the position and Jenkins has some experience playing there from his days in Green Bay. Mike Patterson, Cedric Thornton, and Derek Landri will provide solid depth, though the latter is a free agent this off-season. Antonio Dixon has to be thrilled about the position change as well. He’s a talented player in the right scheme, but he was lost in Philadelphia’s wide nine last year, which is why he was cut and not brought back until Jim Washburn was fired and the Eagles scrapped the wide nine. He looks like a natural fit at 3-4 nose tackle, but they’ll have to bring in competition.

The biggest risk is changing schemes for them is that their edge rushers might not fit. Brandon Graham was one of the most efficient pass rushers in the NFL last year and dominated once given a chance to start down the stretch last year. Trent Cole, meanwhile, is coming off a down year, but in the 6 years prior, he was one of the most consistently excellent defensive ends in the NFL. It might not be a good idea to mess with success. One thing the Eagles do have, however, is plenty of depth at rush linebacker. Vinny Curry was a 2nd round pick in the 2012 NFL Draft and Phillip Hunt and Darryl Tapp have played well in limited action, though the latter is a free agent this off-season.

Their expected middle linebackers are DeMeco Ryans and Mychal Kendricks. Ryans stays in his 2012 spot in the middle, while Kendricks moves from the outside. Those two probably had different reactions to finding out they’d be changing schemes. Ryans was nowhere near his normal self in Houston in a 3-4 in 2011, which is why he got traded to the Eagles. Kendricks, meanwhile, struggled as a rookie, but perhaps a change to a 3-4 will get him turned around. He played in a 3-4 in college, playing both inside and outside. The Eagles don’t have any major needs in the front 7, with the exception of competition for Dixon, but they didn’t really have any to begin with.
3-4 to 4-3

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys are making the opposite move this off-season, going from years of a 3-4 back to a 4-3. While I don’t understand hiring Monte Kiffin if he’s not going to run his signature Tampa 2 coverage scheme, I like the move to a 4-3 for the Cowboys. All 3 of their talented non-rush linebackers, Sean Lee, Bruce Carter, and Dan Connor, will be able to be on the field at the same time, while Lee and Carter will be able to play in space more often. Jay Ratliff is a better fit in a 4-3 than a 3-4 on the nose, though after his recent arrest, it’s questionable if he’ll be brought back next season. Jason Hatcher is tentatively expected to play defensive tackle next to him, but he is a bit of a tweener in a 4-3.

DeMarcus Ware will move to 4-3 defensive end, which is not as risky as moving an edge rusher from a 3-4 to a 4-3 because most edge rushers played in a 4-3 in college, as Ware did. I have no doubt he’ll be able to get to the quarterback regardless of the scheme. Their biggest issue is at defensive end opposite Ware. Anthony Spencer is not expected to be retained as a free agent because the Cowboys don’t have a lot of cap space. Fellow free agent Victor Butler is an option, as he’s been solid in limited action throughout his career. They also have Tyrone Crawford, a 2012 3rd round pick who might be a better fit in a 4-3 than a 3-4. Hatcher is also an option, but that would leave them with just Marcus Spears, Sean Lissemore, and Jay Ratliff inside, assuming the latter is even retained. They could add an end through the draft at some point.

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New Orleans Saints 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Saints

How valuable is Head Coach Sean Payton? Well, if you look just at records, you could say he’s worth 6 wins, as the Saints went from 13-3 in 2011 to 7-9 in 2012. However, Payton’s absence wasn’t the only reason for the decline. Drew Brees’ numbers were still great without Payton, not as good as they were in 2011, but it’s unrealistic to expect him to produce like that every year. He still completed 63.0% of his passes for an average of 7.7 YPA, 43 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions. Everyone remembers his 5 interception loss to the Falcons, but everyone is entitled to one bad game, especially on a short week against an opportunistic defense. This was still the NFL’s 3rd ranking scoring offense, scoring 28.8 points per game, only behind the Patriots and Broncos.

The issue was more the coaching on the other side of the field and you can’t really blame Payton’s absence for that. The reason the Saints went 7-9 despite their great offense was that their defense allowed almost exactly the same amount of points, allowing 28.4 per game, 31st in the NFL. Coming into the season, I had Steve Spagnuolo in the horrible Head Coach/great coordinator club, but he obviously lost his membership this year, as the Saints were horrible defensively in his first year with the team as defensive coordinator.

His scheme is predicated around getting pressure with 4 guys, something he’s always been able to do, both in New York with the Giants and in St. Louis with the Rams. When he can do that, he’s effective, but he wasn’t able to do that at all with the defensive line he had in New Orleans, nor was he able to coach those linemen up into better players.

The Saints once again had one of the least efficient pass rushes in the NFL, 29th in pass rush efficiency, and, sticking true to his scheme, he still refused to blitz, which is what former defensive coordinator Gregg Williams did at an NFL leading rate in 2011, with much better success. Unable to generate any pressure, their so so defensive backs were completely overmatched, allowing the highest YPA in the NFL. Their defensive line didn’t do a whole lot of good against the run either, as they also allowed the NFL’s highest YPC. Sean Payton returning in 2013 will help this team, but if Spagnuolo returns too, they could be in some trouble once again. They obviously need to make the defensive line a priority of this off-season.

Defensive End

You could also put defensive tackle first, but I think end is a more important position. Either way, the Saints need to overhaul their defensive line. Will Smith looks pretty done, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 2nd worst 4-3 defensive end this year. Owed 10 million in his age 32 season in 2013, he won’t be back unless he accepts a major pay cut and even then maybe not. The Saints need someone to replace just the sheer volume of snaps he played this year, 1007, 2nd on the line and 5th on the team. Hopefully this player will also make better use of them as well. A defensive end is a definite possibility with the 15th overall pick.

Defensive Tackle

If they don’t use their 15th pick on a defensive end, expect them to use it on a defensive tackle. This is a defensive line rich draft in the top half of the 1st round and the Saints need all the help they can get. Sedrick Ellis is a free agent this off-season and the 1st round pick bust is not expected to be welcomed back. He led the position in snaps played and like, at defensive end with Will Smith, they need a replacement who is going to make better use of those snaps.

Cornerback

Their defensive issues weren’t just on the defensive line. Starters Jabari Greer and Patrick Robinson were both inconsistent and while both will probably be given another shot as starters in 2013, because of all the organization has invested in them (a big contract and a 1st round pick respectively), they definitely need more depth. Corey White was horrible as the 3rd cornerback and the 5th round rookie never should have been put in that position anyway.

Safety

The Saints’ safeties also played horribly. Roman Harper and Malcolm Jenkins ranked next to last and dead last respectively among ProFootballFocus’ safeties this year, routinely blowing coverages and missing tackles. Like with their cornerbacks, they have a lot invested in them, giving Roman Harper a big deal 2 off-seasons ago and using a 1st round pick on Malcolm Jenkins in 2009, but they need some competition. Jenkins is heading into a contract year, while Harper should definitely be put on notice after two straight awful years. If this continues, he should definitely be cut next off-season, owed 6.15 million in 2014. I’d say cut him now, but it doesn’t sound like that will happen.

Outside Linebacker

The Saints made overhauling their linebacking corps a priority this off-season, giving significant contracts to Curtis Lofton and David Hawthorne, who both disappointed. The Saints will give them another shot in 2013, but they need an upgrade at the 3rd linebacker spot. Jonathan Vilma played there after his suspension, but he picked up where he left off in 2011, showing his age and playing poorly. Owed 5.9 million in his age 31 season in 2013, he’s not expected to be brought back and the Saints will need a new 3rd linebacker.

Offensive Tackle

Left tackle Jermon Bushrod is a free agent this off-season. The Saints should let him walk. He’s not worth the kind of money someone will probably pay him. Yes, he’s allowed just 10 sacks in the last 3 years, but that’s more on Drew Brees, who has one of the quickest releases in the NFL. In spite of the low sack number, he’s allowed 141 total hits and hurries over that 3 year stretch, most in the NFL, and committed an additional 20 penalties. They should be able to find a comparable replacement easily, maybe even from in house, but they could use this opportunity to find a long term upgrade as well.

Wide Receiver

Devery Henderson is a free agent. He was ProFootballFocus’ 2nd worst rated wide receiver last year and I don’t know if there was anyone less efficient. He caught just 22 passes for 316 yards and a touchdown on 44 targets, despite having one of the best in the game throwing to him, dropping 5 and having another 3 picked off.

That doesn’t even tell the whole story. Those 316 yards came on 454 pass snaps, good for a 0.70 yards per route run average. Among players with as many targets he had, only Early Doucet had a lower average and he had Arizona’s shit show at quarterback. Henderson had Drew Brees. Heading into his age 31 season with a history of injury issues, he shouldn’t be brought back. They might bring in another receiver for depth or opt to replace him in house with Joe Morgan, who was promising in limited action this year, or Nick Toon, a 2012 4th round pick who missed his entire rookie year because of injuries.

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Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints: Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 17 NFL Picks, Panthers, Saints

Carolina Panthers (6-9) at New Orleans Saints (7-8)

Aside from this being a divisional matchup, this is a completely meaningless game for these two teams. Both are out of the playoffs. I have a rule against making significant plays on completely meaningless games. If the teams might not care about a game, I shouldn’t either. There’s just no way to predict what kind of effort either side is going to give.

However, if I had to pick a side, I’d take the Panthers, who I think are really underrated. They’ve lost just 2 games by more than 6 points this season and as a result, they rank a modest 19th in net points per drive. That’s actually a good amount of spots behind the Saints, who rank 12th and we’re not really getting any line value with the Panthers using the net points per drive method, as that says this line should be New Orleans -5, which is right where it is.

That being said, the Panthers rank much better in DVOA, which is net points per drive based, but also takes other things into account. The Panthers rank 12th in DVOA, while the Saints rank 20th and the Panthers rank even better in weighted DVOA, which puts greater weight on more recent games, ranking 9th, while New Orleans ranks 18th. This is because the Panthers have won 4 of 5, only losing in Kansas City after the Jovan Belcher incident. Of those 4 wins, 3 have come by double digits.

We’re also getting a chance to fade a heavy public lean with the Panthers, as the public is all over the Saints. I like this because the public always loses money in the long run. The Panthers should be the right side, but again, it’s hard to like either side. I also hate going against the Saints in the Superdome, but these underrated Panthers should at least keep it close.

New Orleans (70% range)

New Orleans Saints 27 Carolina Panthers 24

Pick against spread: Carolina +5 (-110) 2 units

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New Orleans Saints: Week 17 NFL Power Rankings (#17)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 17 NFL Power Rankings, Saints

Last week: 17 (+0)

Record: 7-8

Net points per drive: 0.15 (12th)

DVOA: -4.4% (20th)

Weighted DVOA: -2.5% (18th)

Studs

QB Drew Brees: 37 of 53 for 446 yards and 3 touchdowns, 3 drops, 3 throw aways, 1 batted pass, 98.1 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 8 of 53 drop backs (6 of 8, 2 throw aways)

RB Darren Sproles: Rushed for 48 yards (20 after contact) on 9 attempts, 2 broken tackles, caught 7 passes for 104 yards on 9 attempts

RB Pierre Thomas: Rushed for 16 yards (17 after contact) on 7 attempts, caught 7 passes for 61 yards and a touchdown on 8 attempts

RG Jahri Evans: Did not allow a pressure on 56 pass block snaps, run blocked for 20 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts

C Brian La Puente: Did not allow a pressure on 56 pass block snaps, run blocked for 24 yards on 10 attempts

WR Marques Colston: Caught 10 passes for 153 yards on 13 attempts, 7.4 YAC per catch, 1 drop

MLB Curtis Lofton: 3 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 stop, allowed 1 catch for 11 yards on 6 attempts

Duds

WR Devery Henderson: Did not catch a pass on 1 attempt on 38 pass snaps, 1 drop

CB Patrick Robinson: Allowed 9 catches for 210 yards and 2 touchdowns on 12 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 9 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

CB Elbert Mack: Allowed 3 catches for 27 yards on 4 attempts, 1 assist, 2 missed tackles

RE Will Smith: 1 quarterback hurry on 44 pass rush snaps, no solo tackles

LE Cameron Jordan: Did not record a pressure on 39 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 1 batted pass, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

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New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys: Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 16 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Saints

New Orleans Saints (6-8) at Dallas Cowboys (8-6)

The Cowboys entered December at 6-6 after a rough month of November, traditionally a strong month for them, and it looked unlikely that they would be unable to choke again this December, mostly because there would be nothing to choke away. However, after two straight wins, they are at 8-6 and in control of their own destiny, which means that once again, they’ll have a chance to choke this December, starting with this game against the Saints.

I’m only half kidding when I say this. The Cowboys are not good as front runners. That’s why they’re 9-18 ATS as home favorites and why they always choke late in December. Here, they are home favorites and of course it’s also December. Tony Romo is 12-20 ATS in week 14 or later in his career, including 3-8 ATS as home favorites. They were able pull off two upsets to get themselves back into the playoff race, but now that they’re home favorites and something is actually expected of them as they control their own destiny for a playoff spot 2 weeks later, they probably won’t get it done.

Speaking of that win last week, they might be a little overconfident off of it. Teams are 13-29 ATS since 1989 as home favorites off a home win of 1-6 points as dogs. It’s always important to remember where teams were the week before and not overreact to one game. The Cowboys certainly didn’t play great against the Steelers, who are now 5-16 ATS as non-divisional road favorites under Mike Tomlin (including losses in Oakland and Tennessee this year). The Steelers also probably weren’t taking that game that seriously as they still control their own destiny for a playoff spot with a loss. Plus, here’s an interesting trend, teams are 20-41 ATS off a win against the Steelers since 2002.

The Cowboys might also have one eye on next week. I know the Cowboys have to beat both the Saints and the Redskins, so they won’t completely overlook the Saints here, but which game do you think they’ll be more focused for, a home game against a 6-8 team or a road rematch against a divisional rival who dominated them at home a few weeks ago? For the Saints, this is their Super Bowl, a chance to play spoiler. All they have left is a home game against the Panthers. There’s a trend for that. Dogs before being favorites are 108-67 ATS since 2011, including 118-61 ATS since 2008 as dogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be dogs.

Besides, as the Saints showed last week with their blowout win over the Buccaneers, they’re not to be overlooked. In fact, numbers say the Saints are a better team than the Cowboys. The Saints rank 12th in net points per drive at 0.14, while the Cowboys rank 18th at -0.06, while this line says these two teams are equal, because 2.5 points is standard for home field, not even taking into account the Cowboys’ home struggles.

If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (average amount of drives per game), and add 2.5 for home field, you get that this should be a pick em, again not even taking into account the Cowboys’ home struggles. DVOA backs this up as the Saints rank 15th in DVOA and 14th in weighted DVOA, while the Cowboys rank 16th and 17th respectively. We’re getting points with the better team in the better situation. It’s a big play on the Saints.

Public lean: New Orleans (50% range)

Sharps lean: NO 19 DAL 15

Final thoughts: No change.

New Orleans Saints 31 Dallas Cowboys 24 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: New Orleans +2.5 (-110) 4 units

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New Orleans Saints: Week 16 NFL Power Rankings (#17)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, Saints

Last week: 16 (-1)

Record: 6-8

Net points per drive: 0.14 (12th)

DVOA: -1.3% (15th)

Weighted DVOA: 1.5% (14th)

The Saints still remain mathematically alive for a playoff spot at 6-8 off a huge blowout home win and now they head to Dallas, where the Cowboys really struggle as home favorites and really struggle in December under Tony Romo (generally). With a home game week 17 against the Panthers, they should finish 8-8, but they’ll need a lot of help to make the playoffs and I don’t think they’ll get it.

Studs

QB Drew Brees: 26 of 39 for 307 yards and 4 touchdowns, 3 thrown away, 1 spike, 117.1 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 9 of 41 drop backs (1 sack, 4 of 8, 2 thrown away)

RB Mark Ingram: Rushed for 90 yards (67 after contact) and a touchdown on 14 attempts, 5 broken tackles

LG Ben Grubbs: Didn’t allow a pressure on 44 pass rush snaps, run blocked for 8 yards on 4 attempts

WR Joe Morgan: Caught 2 passes for 61 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts on 13 pass snaps, 3.5 YAC per catch

CB Jabari Greer: Allowed 5 catches for 63 yards on 10 attempts, 2 interceptions, 2 pass deflections, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

SS Rafael Bush: Did not allow a catch on 3 attempts, 1 interception, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist

FS Isa Abdul-Quddas: Allowed 1 catch for 19 yards on 2 attempts, 1 interception, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist

MLB Curtis Lofton: Allowed 2 catches for 13 yards on 3 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 2 assists, 3 stops, 1 quarterback hurry on 8 blitzes, 1 batted pass

RE Will Smith: 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 3 quarterback hurries on 41 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 3 stops

LE Junior Galette: 4 quarterback hits and 4 quarterback hurries on 31 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles

Duds

RG Jahri Evans: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 44 pass rush snaps

WR Devery Henderson: Did not catch a pass on 1 attempt on 31 pass snaps, 1 drop, 1 penalty

CB Elbert Mack: Allowed 9 catches for 90 yards on 11 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 2 stops

SS Roman Harper: Allowed 8 catches for 66 yards on 10 attempts, 10 solo tackles, 3 assists, 4 stops, 2 missed tackles

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Saints

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7) at New Orleans Saints (5-8)

The Buccaneers lost last week as big home favorites against the Eagles, essentially eliminating themselves from playoff contention, but they are still better than their record. They haven’t lost a single game by more than 8 points, but 4 of their 6 wins have come by double digits. As a result, they are 11th in net points per drive at 0.25. They are also 14th in DVOA and 15th in weighted DVOA.

The Saints, meanwhile, rank 19th in net points per drive at -0.13. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game per team), and add 2.5 points to New Orleans’ side for home field, you get that the Buccaneers should be 1.5 point favorites here. That holds up to DVOA, in which the Saints rank 22nd, as well as 21st in weighted.

The Buccaneers may have lost last week, but they were in a really bad spot. They were in a sandwich game in between an emotional loss to the Broncos and this big divisional matchup. However, this week, the Saints are the one in that spot. Last week, they lost as dogs in New York against the Giants and next week, they have to go to Dallas, where they will be dogs. In between, they have this game, in which they are favored. Teams are 59-85 ATS in this spot since 2008.

Teams are 15-18 ATS in this spot as favorites of more than a touchdown, which is why I didn’t take the Eagles last week. I thought even if the Buccaneers overlooked the Eagles, they could still cover on pure talent. However, the Saints are favorites of less than a touchdown here this week and teams are 44-67 ATS in that spot. They might not overlook the Buccaneers, though, because it’s a divisional game sandwiched in between two non-divisional games. Teams are 12-17 ATS in that spot since 2008, 22-26 ATS since 2002, which isn’t much of a trend.

However, that trend does feed into one another. Teams are 32-55 ATS as favorites off back-to-back-to-back losses as dogs before being dogs since 1989. This is an extreme sandwich situation. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are dogs before being favorites, as they host the Rams next week. Teams are 105-62 ATS as dogs before being favorites since 2011. Dogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be dogs are 116-59 ATS since 2008. It’s also worth noting that teams are 30-17 ATS as dogs off a close (1-3 points) loss as touchdown favorites. The Buccaneers overlooked the Eagles last week in preparation for this game and they’ll be extra focused this week.

This would be a bigger play if this wasn’t a divisional matchup and if the Saints weren’t so good at home. They are 12-3 ATS at home over the last 2 seasons, but only 3-3 ATS there this year without Sean Payton. I think we’re getting more than a field goal with the better team in the better spot. It’s a small play on the Buccaneers, though I’m definitely glad to be getting more than a field goal.

Public lean: New Orleans (50% range)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28 New Orleans Saints 27 Upset Pick +170

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4 (-110) 2 units

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New Orleans Saints: Week 15 NFL Power Rankings (#16)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 15 NFL Power Rankings, Saints

Last week: 16 (+0)

Record: 5-8

Net points per drive: -0.13 (19th)

DVOA: -8.1% (22nd)

Weighted DVOA: -7.0% (21st)

I never considered the Saints a true playoff contender because of their schedule, but it gets easier for them now after 3 straight losses. They have very winnable games at home for the Panthers and Buccaneers and they can win in Dallas too as the Cowboys tend to struggle at home, compared to most teams. 7 or 8 wins seems likely, but well short of expectations.

Studs

RB Mark Ingram: Rushed for 68 yards (31 after contact) on 13 attempts, 1 broken tackle

RB Pierre Thomas: Rushed for 19 yards (10 after contact) on 5 attempts, caught 7 passes for 57 yards on 7 attempts

WR Joe Morgan: Caught 2 passes for 106 yards on 2 attempts on 19 pass snaps, 11.5 YAC per catch

Duds

LT Jermon Bushrod: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 4 quarterback hurries on 45 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 8 yards on 2 attempts

RT William Robinson: Allowed 6 quarterback hurries on 30 pass block snaps, run blocked for 19 yards on 1 attempt

WR Devery Henderson: Caught 1 pass for 11 yards on 4 attempts on 31 pass snaps, 3.0 YAC per catch

CB Jabari Greer: Allowed 7 catches for 87 yards and a touchdown on 10 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 5 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle

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New Orleans Saints at New York Giants: Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 14 NFL Picks, Giants, Saints

New Orleans Saints (5-7) at New York Giants (7-5)

Earlier this week, I outlined why the Redskins should be considered the favorites to win the NFC East. The Redskins, presumably, have the tiebreaker, by virtue of their better divisional record. They are a game back right now, but they are almost definitely going favored in each of their last four games, while the Giants will be favored in just two of their final 4.

If the Redskins can win just 3 of 4 (games against Cleveland, Philadelphia, and Dallas look very winnable), that will force the Giants to have to win at least 3 of 4 as well and with games against New Orleans, Baltimore, and Atlanta in 3 of their final 4, that’s going to be very tough. I’m hardly counting them out, but the Redskins should be considered the favorites.

That’s pretty crazy considering the Redskins would have basically been eliminated had they lost last week to the Giants. They would have been 3 games up, holding the tiebreaker (by virtue of sweeping the season series), with 4 games to go. That would have made Washington’s magic number for elimination 1, meaning the Redskins would have been eliminated unless they won out and the Giants lost out, highly unlikely. How did the Giants get from that point (favorites in a game which would have basically eliminated the Redskins) to this point or even how did they get from that awesome 6-2 start to this point?

Well, the easy answer is they do this every year. Since Tom Coughlin took over in 2004, they are 53-19 in the first 8 games of the season and 28-40 in the second 8 games of the season. It’s not all Eli Manning’s fault, but there is a noticeable dip in his 2nd half production as compared to his 1st half production. He completes 57% of his passes for an average of 6.7 YPA and 90 touchdowns to 79 interceptions in the 2nd half, as opposed to 60% of his passes for an average of 7.4 YPA and 111 touchdowns to 61 interceptions in the first half.

The Giants are actually favored here, one of two games they are expected to be favored in the rest of the way. However, that doesn’t mean they’re guaranteed to win. In fact, they really struggle as home favorites, especially bigger home favorites like this and in the 2nd half of the season. Eli Manning is 5-15 ATS as home favorites of more than 3 since 2004 in week 9 or later.

The Saints, meanwhile, are in a great spot. Drew Brees is 8-3 ATS in his career with the Saints as dogs off a loss. He failed to cover in this situation last week, but the fact that he lost last week opens up another trend. Teams are 85-48 ATS as road dogs off a road loss since 2008. That should help to combat the fact that Brees isn’t normally the same quarterback outside of his dome. Brees is 2-0 ATS in that spot since joining the Saints.

Besides, after arguably the worst performance of his NFL career, he’s going to want to bounce back. The great ones always do. On top of this, the Saints are dogs before being favorites, as they host Tampa Bay next week. Teams are 102-57 ATS as dogs before being favorites since 2011, including 114-57 ATS since 2008 when opponent will next be dogs, which the Giants will be as they pay a visit to the Falcons.

I considered this to be a pure 5-unit pick of the week, but I decided to make it a 4 unit co-pick of the week for several reasons. One, the Giants might have another one of those eff you games like they had against the Packers. They were favorites against the Packers, but played like dogs because the Packers were public dogs. The Saints are public dogs this week, something I hate betting on anyway, but it doesn’t have the same feel as the Packers game.

Not of lot of people believe in New Orleans right now and people generally feel the Giants will still win the NFC East. If anything, the Saints are going to have the eff you performance this week. Also, the real line for this game is Giants -8.5 using net points per drive differential and it holds up moderately well against DVOA. Still, the Saints should be the right side, both for the reasons I mentioned earlier and because the Giants basically have to lose the NFC East and miss the playoffs if we’re going to have an 18th straight year of 5 new playoff teams. There are essentially 7 returning playoff teams already locked into playoff spots this year.

Public lean: New Orleans (60% range)

Sharps lean: NO 6 NYG 5

Final thoughts: No change.

New Orleans Saints 31 New York Giants 27 Upset Pick +190

Pick against spread: New Orleans +4.5 (-110) 4 units

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New Orleans Saints: Week 14 NFL Power Rankings (#16)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 14 NFL Power Rankings, Saints

Last week: 16 (+0)

Record: 5-7

Net points per drive: 0.05 (15th)

DVOA: -3.1% (17th)

Weighted DVOA: -1.1% (16th)

Studs

RB Pierre Thomas: Rushed for 84 yards (34 after contact) on 14 attempts, 3 broken tackles, caught 1 pass for 5 yards on 1 attempt

LG Ben Grubbs: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 54 pass block snaps, run blocked for 21 yards on 5 attempts

WR Lance Moore: Caught 7 passes for 123 yards on 10 attempts on 42 pass snaps, 0.8 YAC per catch, 1 drop

MLB Curtis Lofton: 6 solo tackles, 3 assists, 3 stops, allowed 4 catches for 18 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 7 blitzes

CB Patrick Robinson: Allowed 2 catches for 15 yards on 5 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

CB Jabari Greer: Allowed 1 catch for 20 yards on 4 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hurry on 1 blitz

DT Sedrick Ellis: 2 quarterback hits and 3 quarterback hurries on 27 pass rush snaps, no solo tackles

Duds

QB Drew Brees: 28 of 50 for 341 yards and 5 interceptions, 4 drops, 1 thrown away, 1 hit as thrown, 2 batted passes, 68.1 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 16 of 51 drop backs (1 sack, 7 of 15, 1 throw away, 1 hit as thrown, 1 drop)

RT Zach Strief: Allowed 1 sack, 3 quarterback hits, and 2 quarterback hurries on 49 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards on 2 attempts

WR Devery Henderson: Did not catch a pass on 3 attempts on 39 pass snaps, 1 interception when thrown to

SS Roman Harper: Allowed 2 catches for 33 yards on 4 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

FS Malcolm Jenkins: Allowed 1 catch for 9 yards on 2 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 2 missed tackles

LOLB Jonathan Vilma: Allowed 2 catches for 32 yards on 2 attempts, 4 solo tackle, 1 assist, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

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