Saints

New Orleans Saints: Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#16)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Saints

Last week: 15 (-1)

Record: 5-6

Net points per drive: 0.14 (14th)

DVOA: 0.3% (16th)

Weighted DVOA: 1.8% (14th)

Tier 5: Teams many predicted to make the playoffs at the beginning of the season, but that are long shots now

Studs

CB Patrick Robinson: Allowed 2 catches for 9 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 1 interception, 1 pass deflection, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

LE Cameron Jordan: 5 quarterback hurries on 28 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 5 stops, 1 missed tackle

P Thomas Morestead: 4 kickoffs, 3 touchbacks, 71.5 yards per kickoff, 21.5 opponent’s average starting distance, 5 punts for 251 yards, 2 inside 20, 2 returns for 13 yards, 47.6 net yards per punt

Duds

LG Ben Grubbs: Allowed 1 sacks and 3 quarterback hurries on 49 pass block snaps, run blocked for 0 yards on 1 attempt

C Brian La Puente: Allowed 1 sacks and 2 quarterback hurries on 49 pass block snaps, run blocked for 52 yards on 14 attempts

LT Jermon Bushrod: Allowed 2 sacks and 2 quarterback hurries on 42 pass block snaps, run blocked for 2 yards on 1 attempt

RT William Robinson: Allowed 2 sacks and 1 quarterback hurry on 42 pass block snaps, run blocked for 2 yards on 1 attempt

TE Jimmy Graham: Caught 4 passes for 33 yards on 6 attempts on 38 pass snaps, 2.5 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 1 interception when thrown to

WR Devery Henderson: Caught 1 pass for 6 yards on 3 attempts on 38 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch

CB Jabari Greer: Allowed 4 catches for 80 yards on 4 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 3 missed tackles

MLB Curtis Lofton: 7 solo tackles, 2 assists, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle, allowed 2 catches for 52 yards on 3 attempts

LOLB Jonathan Vilma: 5 solo tackles, 4 stops, 2 missed tackles, 1 quarterback hurry on 3 blitzes, allowed 3 catches for 34 yards on 3 attempts

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New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons: Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 13 NFL Picks, Falcons, Saints

New Orleans Saints (5-6) at Atlanta Falcons (10-1)

On principle, this line is too small. This line essentially suggests that the Saints and Falcons are equals (3 points for home field advantage) and while I agree that the Falcons aren’t as good as their record, I don’t think the Saints and Falcons are equals right now. Using this new method of computing real line and line value I’ve created, which I think makes more sense that methods I’ve used in the past and which is based on net points per drive, this line should be Atlanta -8.5.

How this new method works is this: Net points per drive is points per drive minus by points per drive allowed, points per drive being offensive points (non-return touchdowns, extra points, two point conversions, and field goals) divided by total number of drives. For example, if you score 3 points per drive (that’s a lot actually) and allow 2, your net would be +1. There are an average of 11 drives per game, so we multiply that number by 11 and that team would be -11 on a neutral surface against an average team. In order to compute line value from that, we take the differences between the net points per drive, multiply by 11, and then add 3 points for home field advantage. Atlanta is at +0.62, while New Orleans is at +0.14. 0.48 times 11 plus 3 is around 8.5.

In spite of that, the public is siding with the dog. It’s almost like the Falcons have been called overrated so many times that they’re underrated. Besides, I love fading the public, especially when they back a dog. The odds makers always make money in the long run so siding with them (and against the public) isn’t a bad idea, especially when the public is backing a dog. Odds makers want two things, to make money and for favorites and dogs to cover evenly (so the public can’t key in on just one). The public rarely backs a dog, but when they do, it’s a risky bet.

That being said, New Orleans has had the much tougher schedule. Net points per drive doesn’t take into account strength of schedule, but DVOA (which is a formula heavily based on net points per drive, that takes strength of schedule into account) does. Atlanta ranks 5th in net points per drive and New Orleans ranks 14th, but in DVOA, Atlanta ranks 12th and New Orleans ranks 16th. New Orleans is also playing better football of late and has the momentum. Weighted DVOA (which weights more recent games more heavily) ranks Atlanta 17th and New Orleans 14th.

Meanwhile, Atlanta’s net points per drive is strong mostly because of 3 games: 40-23 week 1 against Kansas City, 27-3 week 3 against San Diego, and 30-17 week 8 against Philadelphia. The rest of their games have all been decided by a touchdown or less and if you took those 3 outliers out, they would be much worse than 5th in net points per drive. None of those 3 games are recent and that trio isn’t exactly a murderers’ row. Kansas City is the worst team in the NFL. San Diego hasn’t been anyone except Kansas City since week 2 (their other wins are against Tennessee and Oakland, also crappy teams). Philadelphia, meanwhile, hasn’t won any of their last 7 games and their 3 wins came by a total of 4 points.

All 3 of those games were also on the road, which is strange because this was traditionally a great home team that struggled on the road. This year, they haven’t won a single home game by more than a touchdown in 5 tries. They’ve won all 5, but they’ve all been close and New Orleans is the 2nd toughest team they’ve faced at home this season, toughest if you believe that the week 2 Broncos (before they got rolling) are worse than these Saints. The other 4 wins came against teams that are a combined 15-29.

There’s only so long you can play inferior teams close before one beats you and even if the Saints don’t win, 16% of all NFL games are decided by exactly a field goal so this could easily be a field goal game, which would cover this 3.5 point spread. The Saints also seem to own the Falcons in the Matt Ryan era, beating them 7 out of 9 times, including earlier this season. They’re also 3-1 in the Georgia Dome, as good as the Falcons normally are there. Those 3 losses are 3 of the 7 losses they’ve had at home since 2008 (30-4 against anyone other than the Saints).

Besides, Drew Brees is awesome as a dog off a loss, going 8-2 ATS in that spot since joining the Saints in 2006. I hate siding with a public dog and I wish this spread was bigger, but it’s a small play on the Saints. Also, unlike most weeks, I don’t like the under this Thursday Night. That generally hits on a short week because offenses tend to struggle on short weeks, but this game features two true franchise quarterbacks so I trust them to be prepared. There’s no play on the total.

Public lean: New Orleans (60% range)

New Orleans Saints 24 Atlanta Falcons 23 Upset Pick +170

Pick against spread: New Orleans +3.5 (-110) 2 units

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San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, 49ers, Saints

San Francisco 49ers (7-2) at New Orleans Saints (5-5)

Colin Kaepernick will start this one for the 49ers. Kaepernick was incredibly impressive against a tough Bears defense on Monday Night, going 16 of 23 for 243 yards and 2 scores in a 32-7 win over the Jay Cutler-less Bears. Against St. Louis after Alex Smith got hurt, he was also impressive going 11 of 17 for 117 yards, leading the 49ers back from down to tie the game. He’s apparently done enough to impress Jim Harbaugh as it appears he has “Wally Pipped” Smith and will be the starter from here on out.

With Kaepernick in, the 49ers have become a lot of people’s Super Bowl favorite. Alex Smith did a decent job, but there was always a feeling that he was a limiting factor on a team that was loaded with talent elsewhere. I don’t disagree. Smith was the limiting factor on this team. They have the defense, the running game, the offensive line. They rank 2nd in yards per play differential and 3rd in rate of sustaining drives differential.

Kaepernick makes the run even more dangerous because teams have to respect the deep ball now and because they also have to respect Kaepernick’s own running ability. They have an incredibly complex playbook, but Kaepernick allows them to use more of it with his athletic gifts and it didn’t appear he had any issues with the mental part of it either, which was formerly Alex Smith’s biggest advantage.

I’m just not 100% sold on Kaepernick yet. He’s yet to face a team that’s known he was coming. The Rams probably didn’t do a whole lot of preparing for Kaepernick before their game against the 49ers because they didn’t know Smith would get hurt. The Bears might have done more preparation, but remember, Alex Smith wasn’t ruled out until Monday. There was actually a general sense that Smith would start until he was ruled out. The odds makers even posted a line on Saturday Night assuming Smith would start and then had to lower it Monday when they found out Kaepernick was going to start.

The Saints, this week, know he’s coming. Jim Harbaugh did his best to keep it a secret that Kaepernick was his guy, but in this 24/7 news cycle world, that’s almost impossible. The Saints have been preparing for a Kaepernick-lead team all or most of the week and now have a game and a half of NFL game tape of him. They won’t take him lightly, which the Bears and Rams might have, after seeing what he did to a tough Bears defense. This is also Kaepernick’s first road game and playing in New Orleans is no picnic, even if they’ve had better years.

Finally, I just don’t like to overreact to one game too much. The 49ers were 6th in my Power Rankings a week ago, which seemed very reasonable, making them a fringe contender. Kaepernick was great, but it was just one game. I’m not ready to make them a Super Bowl favorite after 1 week, though I acknowledge they could potentially be very dangerous and the first team I’m really, really sold on if Kaepernick keeps it up and continues to play at a high level.

Even though I don’t like to overreact to one game and I’m not 100% sold on Kaepernick, I still like the 49ers this week and there are 4 reasons why what I mentioned early doesn’t really matter. First, the Saints’ defense is atrocious. Kaepernick might not be as good as he looked on Monday Night, but that probably wouldn’t even matter. No team allows more yards per play than they do and only the Titans allow a higher rate of sustaining drives (what percentage of sets of downs you convert for another 1st or a score).

Because of this, we’re getting good line value with the 49ers, which is the 2nd reason I like the 49ers. The yards per play differential method of computing real line gives us a real line of San Francisco -8.5 and the rate of sustaining drives differential method gives us a real line of San Francisco -6. This line is at just -1, which is actually down from -2.5, where it was a week ago. As good as the 49ers looked on Monday Night, this line has still shifted in favor of New Orleans in the past week, because they blew out crappy Oakland.

Even with the line movement, the public is still on New Orleans, which is the third reason I like the 49ers. The odds makers have had a rough 3 weeks and are due for a big week. Betting on a publicly backed team this week is risky this week, especially a publicly backed dog. Public dogs covering especially hurt the odds makers because they need favorites and dogs to cover evenly, but also to make money. The public tends to prefer favorites, but when they prefer a dog, it’s normally a risky bet, especially given what’s happened in the last few weeks. The odds makers always win in the long run.

The 49ers may be a bit overrated based off of one game of Kaepernick right now, but the Saints are incredibly overrated and overvalued by the public. The Saints are very, very good in the red zone converting for a touchdown 71% of the time, best in the league and even defensively they aren’t terrible in the red zone (53%, 17th in the league), so that takes away some of the line value, since neither method really puts much emphasis on red zone efficiency. However, it’s not like the 49ers are a bad red zone team, converting 59% of the time, 9th in the league, and allowing their opponents to convert 53% of the time, 16th in the league. We are major getting line value with the 49ers any way you look at it.

The 4th reason is that they’re in a very strong spot coming off a Monday Night Football blowout. Excluding teams coming off a bye, teams are 27-11 ATS since 2002 after a Monday Night Football win by 21 more and the 49ers won by 25. I’m not 100% sold on Kaepernick, but the 49ers have serious line value on their side, a powerful trend on their side, and they are a favorite not backed by the public. I would have taken them even if it were Smith starting this one, though maybe for fewer units. Still, for that reason, I’m going to take them for a significant play even in New Orleans, where Drew Brees is 5-1 ATS as a dog.

Public lean: New Orleans (60% range)

Sharps lean: NO 10 SF 3

Final update: Sharps do like New Orleans, but I disagree. That 27-11 ATS trend is pretty powerful and the Saints are overrated right now.

San Francisco 49ers 27 New Orleans Saints 20

Pick against spread: San Francisco -1 (-110) 3 units

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New Orleans Saints: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#15)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Saints

Last week: 15 (+3)

Record: 5-5

The Saints are red hot right now, but they’ll need to go at least 5-1 to make the playoffs. The NFC is loaded. If the playoffs started today, there would be two 6-4 teams outside of the playoffs (either Tampa Bay, Seattle, or Minnesota). The Saints are only in 9th place at best in the NFC right now (tied with Dallas). Looking at the rest of their schedule, it’s possible how they’re playing, but I don’t trust their defense enough. They still have to go to Atlanta and New York (to play the Giants) and Dallas and they have two tough games at home (Tampa Bay and San Francisco). Only their week 17 contest at home against Carolina can be considered “easy.”

Studs

QB Drew Brees: 20 of 27 for 219 yards and 3 touchdowns, 1 throw away, 1 hit as thrown, 104.3 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 7 of 27 drop backs (0 sacks, 5 of 7, 1 touchdown, 1 hit as thrown)

LT Jermon Bushrod: Did not allow a pressure on 28 pass block snaps, run blocked for 0 yards on 2 attempts

WR Lance Moore: Caught 2 passes for 53 yards and 2 touchdowns on 3 attempts on 16 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch

CB Patrick Robinson: Allowed 1 catch for 1 yard on 5 attempts, 3 pass deflections, 1 penalty, no tackles

CB Elbert Mack: Allowed 2 catches for 29 yards on 5 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 quarterback hurry on 4 blitzes,

Duds

MLB Curtis Lofton: 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 2 missed tackle, did not allow a completion on 2 attempts, 1 quarterback hit on 12 blitzes

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New Orleans Saints at Oakland Raiders: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Raiders, Saints

New Orleans Saints (4-5) at Oakland Raiders (3-6)

The Saints are overrated. Yes, they knocked off Atlanta, but Dallas, Carolina, Washington, and Oakland almost did so. Their defense is still a joke. Because of their defense, they rank 28th in yards per play differential and 25th in rate of sustaining drives differential. Their defense ranks dead last in both of those metrics. The Raiders, meanwhile, aren’t much better, but they rank 24th in yards per play differential and 23rd in rate of sustaining drives differential. They rank better in both of those statistics than the Saints and somehow they’re still home dogs.

Using those statistics to compute real line, we get that Oakland should be 3.5 point favorites using the yards per play differential method and 4.5 points favorites using the rate of sustaining drives differential method. Instead, Oakland is +5.5. That’s 9 or 10 points of line value, which is an absolutely ridiculous amount to get at this point in the season.

Besides, New Orleans has never been good on the road as favorites outside of their division, even when they were good. Since the start of the 2010 season, they are 3-7 ATS as non-divisional road favorites. In his last 13 games as road favorites of 4 or more, Brees is just 4-9 ATS. Their struggles outside of their dome are well documented. Since the start of the 2008 season, Brees completes 68.5% of his passes for an average of 8.1 YPA and 119 touchdowns to 43 interceptions indoors, as opposed to 66.5% completion, 7.5 YPA, and 53 touchdowns to 30 interceptions outside.

Speaking of New Orleans being road favorites, teams are 75-97 ATS as road favorites after being home dogs since 1989. The Saints were home dogs against the Falcons last week. Meanwhile, teams are 68-104 ATS as road favorites before being home dogs since 1989. The Saints go home and will be dogs against San Francisco next week. Furthermore, teams are 12-28 ATS as non-conference favorites off a divisional upset win before being dogs. Teams are 16-5 ATS after ending a perfect season during week 9 or later, but I still think overall the Saints are in a bad spot this week, in addition to being overrated and a poor team on the road, outside of the division, and outside of their dome.

Meanwhile, the Raiders are in a great spot. It may not seem like it after their 35 point loss in Baltimore last week, but that’s exactly why they’re in a good spot. Teams are 62-31 ATS since 2002 coming off a loss of 31+ or more. Teams coming off a blowout like that tend to be overlooked, undervalued, embarrassed and playing for respect.

I think they’ll definitely be the latter of those 2 things. That speaks for itself. I think the Saints will also overlook this lowly non-conference opponent sandwiched in between games against Atlanta and San Francisco, two of the premier teams in their conference (after that they go to Atlanta and the Giants and then host Tampa Bay). Road favorites are 20-39 ATS before being dogs in 3 straight. I also think the Raiders are undervalued as this line has moved from -3 to -5.5 in the last week, giving us even more line value.

The only thing I’m worried about other than that 16-5 trend that I mentioned earlier is that the NFC is 25-16 against the AFC this year, but the Raiders don’t have to win to cover here. Plus, on top of all the things I’ve already mentioned, the public is pounding the Saints. The public always loses money in the long run. I like them to cover the 5.5 for a big play.

Public lean: New Orleans (90% range)

Sharps lean: NO 14 OAK 10

Final update: No change.

Oakland Raiders 31 New Orleans Saints 27 Upset Pick +190

Pick against spread: Oakland Raiders +5.5 (-110) 4 units

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New Orleans Saints: Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#18)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Saints

Last week: 20 (+2)

Record: 4-5

They’re the least likely of the three 2011 playoff teams who are currently 4-5 to go 1-6 and be this year’s team that goes from the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer, but I guess we can’t rule them out. They probably won’t be that team, however. That being said, they’re overrated. Yes, they knocked off Atlanta, but Dallas, Carolina, Washington, and Oakland almost did so. They’re not nearly as good outside of their dome and their defense is still a joke. Because of their defense, they rank 28th in yards per play differential and 25th in rate of sustaining drives differential. They’re not a playoff contender. They’ll probably finish around .500 like they did in 2008, a very similar season (BountyGate scandal excluded).

Studs

RB Chris Ivory: Rushed for 72 yards (82 after contact) and a touchdown on 7 attempts, 5 broken tackles, caught 1 pass for 13 yards on 1 attempt

RT Charles Brown: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 33 pass block snaps, run blocked for 6 yards on 1 attempt

RG Jahri Evans: Did not allow a pressure on 33 pass block snaps, run blocked for 9 yards on 2 attempts

WR Lance Moore: Caught 7 passes for 91 yards on 9 attempts on 25 pass snaps, 3.1 YAC per catch

TE Jimmy Graham: Caught 7 passes for 146 yards and 2 touchdowns on 8 attempts on 24 pass snaps, 8.3 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 1 penalty

CB Corey White: Allowed 2 catches for 10 yards on 4 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 interception, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

P Thomas Morestead: 6 kickoffs, 6 touchbacks, 74.3 yards per kickoff, 20.0 opponent’s average starting distance, 5 punts for 250 yards, 1 inside 20, 3 return for 9 yards, 48.2 net yards per punt

Duds

LT Jermon Bushrod: Allowed 4 quarterback hurries on 33 pass block snaps, run blocked for 8 yards on 3 attempts

WR Devery Henderson: Did not catch a pass on 2 attempts on 25 pass snaps, 1 drop

SS Roman Harper: Allowed 6 catches for 81 yards and a touchdown on 10 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 5 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 stop, 1 quarterback hurry on 4 blitzes

CB Jabari Greer: Allowed 4 catches for 117 yards on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 1 stop

CB Johnny Patrick: Allowed 5 catches for 57 yards on 6 attempts, 5 solo tackles

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Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints: Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 10 NFL Picks, Falcons, Saints

Atlanta Falcons (8-0) at New Orleans Saints (3-5)

The Falcons are an undefeated 8-0, but they have not played a tough schedule (it doesn’t really get harder) and they’ve won 5 of their 8 games by a touchdown or less, including 4 at home. Their +77 points differential is just 6th in the NFL. Typically, records in touchdown games even out over time. Teams that win a game by a touchdown or less win their following game 52% of the time if that game is also decided by a touchdown or less.

They’ve beaten everyone on their schedule and they’ve been able to eke out victories, but at the end of the day, if I’m an AFC team, I’m way more scared of the Bears than the Falcons. I don’t like the Falcons to go 16-0 either even against a week schedule. At least one of these inferior teams that they keep barely beaten will trip them up one of these weeks. It could easily be the Saints in New Orleans this Sunday.

When are we ever going to see Drew Brees as a home dog again? Well, it’s actually happened 5 times before this week since he joined the Saints in 2006. The Saints covered 4 of those 5 instances. Meanwhile, dogs before being favorites are 89-50 ATS since 2011. The Saints go to Oakland next weekend. Home dogs before being road favorites, like the Saints will be next week, are 52-31 ATS since 2002.

That makes sense. If you’re good enough to be road favorites in the following week, why are you home dogs? Those teams are extra focused too with an easy game next on their schedule. That trend becomes stronger when the team is divisional home dogs before being non-divisional road favorites. Going back to 1989 to get a bigger sample size, teams are 29-14 ATS in that spot. They’ll be extra focused this week. This will be their Super Bowl, not just because it’s Atlanta, but because their season is over with a loss, while they don’t care about non-conference Oakland next week.

This game will mean a lot for the Falcons too. However, small road favorites (less than 3) are 3-11 ATS after 5 or more straight wins. Typically if a team has been playing this well lately and they’re still not big road favorites, there’s a good reason for that. If we look at the metrics for calculating real line, we see that the yards per play differential method gives us a real line of -1 and the rate of sustaining drives differential method gives us a real line of -6.

Average those two out and you get -3.5 and, all of a sudden, this small line makes more sense, especially since you consider the Falcons will once again be without top linebacker Sean Weatherspoon. Without him last week, they allowed 377 yards to the Cowboys 24 yards over their season average going into last week and their 4th worst total allowed of the season. The Cowboys imploded in the red zone, which is why they got just 13 points, but the Saints are much better in the red zone. They score on 72% of their red zone trips, best in the NFL.

The Falcons have also been had a bunch of “too good to be true” lines in their games this year that actually made sense when you looked at the metrics, -7.5 for Carolina, -9 for Oakland, +2.5 in Philadelphia, -3 in Washington, -4 for Dallas, etc. That’s not done on purpose. The odds makers know they’re overrated. The public seems to be falling for the trap as most of the action is on the Saints. This week especially, that’s a bad thing.

As some of you may know, the public killed the odds makers in unprecedented fashion last week, going 12-2 and winning every heavy lean. The odds makers aren’t going broke or anything. They killed the public for the first 8 weeks of the season and are still up on the year, but given that, I would be very nervous to bet on a heavy public lean this week because the odds makers, regardless of whether or not you believe in conspiracy theories, always have a way of bouncing back. I’ve bet against the Falcons in the last 2 weeks and lost, but I’m doing it again this week. They can’t keep this up every week. One of these inferior teams will knock them off and there’s a lot of stuff going against them this week.

Public lean: Atlanta (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if New Orleans covers)

Sharps lean: NO 12 ATL 9

Final update: No change.

New Orleans Saints 31 Atlanta Falcons 27 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: New Orleans +2.5 (-110) 3 units

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New Orleans Saints: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#20)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Saints

Last week: 22 (+2)

Record: 3-5

The Saints held the Eagles to 13 points, but I still have no confidence in this defense. They surrendered 400 yards for the 8th straight game, an NFL record to start a season, but the Eagles’ dumb mistakes forced them to settle for 13 points. This was the 9th most in NFL history that a team has surrendered in NFL history and still held their opponent to 13 or less. They won’t be able to do that again. At 3-5, they need to go 7-1 in a loaded NFC to make the playoffs. I don’t think they nearly have the defense for that.

Studs

QB Drew Brees: 21 of 27 for 239 yards and 2 touchdowns, 2 hit as thrown, 1 drop, 111.0 adjusted QB rating

RB Mark Ingram: Rushed for 44 yards (47 after contact) on 7 attempts, 4 broken tackles, caught 2 passes for 23 yards on 2 attempts

C Brian De La Puente: Did not allow a pressure on 31 pass block snaps, run blocked for 21 yards on 4 attempts

RG Jahri Evans: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 30 pass block snaps, run blocked for 10 yards on 2 attempts

CB Jabari Greer: Allowed 2 catches for 10 yards on 6 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

LE Cameron Jordan: 3 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 4 quarterback hurries on 54 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 6 stops, 1 missed tackle

P Thomas Morestead: 3 punts for 149 yards, 0 inside 20, 1 return for 20 yards, 43.0 net yards per punt, 5 kickoffs, 4 touchbacks, 70.6 yards per kickoff, 16.6 opponent’s average starting distance

Duds

SS Roman Harper: 4 solo tackles, 2 missed tackles, allowed 4 catches for 66 yards on 5 attempts

DT Sedrick Ellis: 2 quarterback hurries on 40 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

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Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints: Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 9 NFL Picks, Eagles, Saints

Philadelphia Eagles (3-4) at New Orleans Saints (2-5)

Andy Reid’s perfect 13-0 career record off the bye is gone. The Eagles are 3-4 and the sky is falling in Philadelphia. This line has shifted 1 point since last week. That might not seem like a whole lot, but a shift from -2 to -3 is huge because about 16% of games end with a final margin of victory of exactly 3, so field goal protection is huge. It takes a lot for odds makers to shift a line from under 2 to exactly 3. Well, I’m not so sure the sky is falling in Philadelphia.

They still rank 18th in yards per play differential and 13th in rate of sustaining drives differential. That’s not good, but it’s not horrible. They’ve always been a better 2nd half team under Andy Reid. Since he took over in 1999, the Eagles are 28-26 before the bye and 82-40 after. Just because he lost for the first time off a bye last week against an undefeated Falcons team, doesn’t mean that’s going to change. Besides, this is the exact type of game Andy Reid wins. Whenever it looks like the sky is falling, the Eagles always have a way of bouncing back. Remember when they beat the Giants after the Arizona game? In his career as underdogs, Andy Reid is 48-29, including 7-3 ATS as underdogs off a loss as favorites.

The Saints are in a good spot as well, at home, and off a loss. Drew Brees is 22-14 ATS off a loss with the Saints, including 16-6 ATS since 2008. He’s also 8-4 ATS as favorites off a loss as dogs, a number that improves to 7-0 ATS going back to 2008. He’s also 10-2 ATS at home dating back to last year. However, these aren’t the same Saints. They’ve already lost twice at home to the Redskins and Chiefs. They also almost lost at home to the Chargers, but Drew Brees’ pick six was called back by a penalty.

Brees looks the same. He’s now on pace for 5280 yards, which would be his 3rd career 5000 yard season, and he’s got a legitimate chance to do that if he continues to play this well or close to this well because of his team’s atrocious defense and running game. He’s currently on pace for 720 passing attempts, which would shatter Drew Bledsoe’s 18 year old record of 691.

However, just because Drew Brees looks like Drew Brees again doesn’t mean the Saints are the Saints again. They can’t run the ball or stop anyone. They rank dead last in the NFL in rushing yards and rushing attempts and 30th in rushing yards per carry. Defensively, they rank 30th against the run, dead last against the pass, dead last in pass rush efficiency, and 30th in points per game allowed, allowing 30.9 per game. As a result, they’ve had to pass 315 times to 139 runs, not including quarterback scrambles and sacks, which were designed passes that don’t count as pass attempts.

You might not think of defense and running the football when you think of the Saints, but whenever they’ve been good, it’s something they’ve done. In 2009 when they won the Super Bowl, they ranked 6th in the league in rushing yards, 7th in the league in YPC, and allowed just 21.3 points per game. Last year, when they won 13 games, they allowed 21.2 points per game, ranked 6th in rushing yards, and 4th in YPC.

This year, they remind me a lot more of the 2008 Saints, when Drew Brees threw for over 5000 yards, but the team went 8-8 because he didn’t have any help. They ranked 28th in rushing yards, 23rd in yards per carry, and allowed 24.6 points per game, good for 26th in the league. Their defense might be even worse. This line says these two teams are comparable, but I don’t think that’s true.

In fact, while Philadelphia ranks 18th and 13th respectively in yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential, the Saints rank 31st and 28th respectively, thanks, in large, part to their atrocious defense. We’re getting big line value with the Eagles as yards per play differential says they should be 3 point road favorites and rate of sustaining drives differential says they should be 1.5 point road favorites. This late in the season, it’s rare to get this kind of line value.

Two more things work in Philadelphia’s favor. Dogs are 86-49 ATS before being favorites since 2011, including 16-3 ATS off a loss as favorites. When we go back to 2008 to get a larger sample size, that trend is 50-21 ATS since. Meanwhile, Andy Reid is 15-7 ATS on Monday Night Football, for what that’s worth. Their season is on the line and this is the exact type of game Andy Reid wins, with everyone doubting them. It’s a significant play on the road team.

Public lean: New Orleans (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Philadelphia covers)

Sharps lean: PHI 13 NO 0

Final update: Another heavy sharps lean lining up with my pick. I’m feeling really good about this week. The last time I agreed with the sharps this much was week 4, my 2nd best week ever (+25 units). I’m adding an extra unit here. I love getting a 50-21 ATS trend and getting Andy Reid in a must win game as dogs.

Philadelphia Eagles 31 New Orleans Saints 27 Upset Pick +145

Pick against spread: Philadelphia +3 (-110) 4 units

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New Orleans Saints: Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#22)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Saints

Last week: 19 (-3)

Record: 2-5

I guess beating the Broncos is a lot harder than beating the Chargers and Buccaneers for a still overrated Saints team (heavy public action on New Orleans +6 last week). The rank 31st in the league in yards per play differential and 27th in rate of sustaining drives differential, mostly because of a defense that allows the most yards per play in the league and the 2nd highest rate of sustaining drives in the league. This week, they host Philadelphia in a game that’s going to tell us a lot about both teams as they are both at a crossroads in their respective seasons.

Studs

LT Jermon Bushrod: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 45 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 8 yards in 4 attempts

LG Jahri Evans: Didn’t allow a pressure on 45 pass block snaps

C Brian La Puente: Didn’t allow a pressure on 45 pass block snaps, run blocked for 15 yards on 3 attempts

P Thomas Morestead: 8 punts for 413 yards, 4 inside 20, 4 returns for 43 yards, 46.3 net yards per punt, 2 kickoffs, 1 touchback, 72.5 yards per kickoff, 13.5 opponent’s average starting distance

Duds

WR Devery Henderson: Did not catch a pass on 3 attempts on 38 pass snaps, 1 drop

WR Lance Moore: Caught 3 passes for 25 yards on 6 attempts on 32 pass snaps, 1.3 YAC per catch, 1 drop

CB Patrick Robinson: Allowed 5 catches for 109 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 penalty, 5 solo tackles, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

FS Malcolm Jenkins: 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles, 1 penalty, allowed 4 catches for 49 yards on 4 attempts

RE Will Smith: Did not record a pressure on 28 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 2 stops

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