Saints

New Orleans Saints at Denver Broncos: Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 8 NFL Picks, Broncos, Saints

New Orleans Saints (2-4) at Denver Broncos (3-3)

Drew Brees looks like Drew Brees again. He struggled, by his standards, in his first few games out of the gate, but you had to figure that eventually he’d get it together, even without Sean Payton, because he’s just too talented. In his last 3 games, he’s completed 91 of 136 for 11 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He’s now on pace for 5592 yards, which would break his own record set just last year, and he’s got a legitimate chance to do that if he continues to play this well or close to this well because of his team’s atrocious defense and running game. He’s currently on pace for 728 passing attempts, which would shatter Drew Bledsoe’s 18 year old record of 691.

However, just because Drew Brees looks like Drew Brees again doesn’t mean the Saints are the Saints again. They can’t run the ball or stop anyone. They rank dead last in the NFL in rushing yards and rushing attempts and 26th in rushing yards per carry. Defensively, they rank 29th against the run, dead last against the pass, dead last in pass rush efficiency, and 29th in points per game allowed, allowing 30.3 per game. As a result, they’ve had to pass 273 times to 122 runs, not including quarterback scrambles and sacks, which were designed passes that don’t count as pass attempts.

You might not think of defense and running the football when you think of the Saints, but whenever they’ve been good, it’s something they’ve done. In 2009 when they won the Super Bowl, they ranked 6th in the league in rushing yards, 7th in the league in YPC, and allowed just 21.3 points per game. Last year, when they won 13 games, they allowed 21.2 points per game, ranked 6th in rushing yards, and 4th in YPC.

This year, they remind me a lot more of the 2008 Saints, when Drew Brees threw for over 5000 yards, but the team went 8-8 because he didn’t have any help. They ranked 28th in rushing yards, 23rd in yards per carry, and allowed 24.6 points per game, good for 26th in the league. Drew Brees might look like Drew Brees, but the Saints aren’t the Saints, even though people do seem to think they’re back. As a result, they’re a heavily backed underdog at +6 in Denver this week.

In order to see how overrated the Saints are, we need to look at where they rank in terms of yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential. The former measures pure yards per play as opposed to their opponent’s, while the latter measures how often they convert any given set of downs for a first down or score, as opposed to their opponents. They rank just 26th in yards per play differential and 23rd in rate of sustaining drives differential.

Denver, meanwhile, ranks 2nd in yards per play differential and 13th in rate of sustaining drives. We can calculate “real” line using those two numbers and we get a real line of Denver -13.5 for the yards per play differential method and Denver -6.5 for the rate of sustaining drives method. The disparity is the reason I use both numbers because some teams can get a lot of big plays, but struggle to sustain drives or vice versa (and the opposite defensively), but both suggest we’re getting line value with the Broncos. This line is at -6 and the Saints are still a heavy publicly backed dog.

Speaking of the Saints being a heavy publicly backed underdog, I mentioned in earlier picks this week that, with one exception and one borderline exception, you’d have to be crazy to pick a public underdog this week. Underdogs are 63-39 ATS this year. Eventually, that will even out. It always does. Neither dogs nor favorites have finished more than 10 games over .500 ATS in the last decade at least. If you can get a situation where you can pick a favorite this week and simultaneously fade the public (the odds makers always win in the long run), you have to take it unless you have a really good reason not to. Given that the Saints are overrated right now, there isn’t a good reason not to here.

I also like Denver at home more than I like them on the road because they can run the hurry up in the thin atmosphere and tire out opponents. They’ve gotten 2 double digits wins at home this year, including a blowout over the Raiders, and hung close with the Texans. The Saints don’t travel well anyway. The Broncos have also played an awful tough schedule early playing the Steelers, Falcons, Texans, Raiders, Patriots, and Chargers. They’re better than their record would suggest.

Public lean: New Orleans (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Denver covers)

Sharps lean: NO 14 DEN 6

Final update: No change.

Denver Broncos 34 New Orleans Saints 24

Pick against spread: Denver -6 (-110) 2 units

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New Orleans Saints: Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#19)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Saints

Last week: 19 (+7)

Record: 2-4

The Saints are no longer the favorite to be this year’s team that goes from out of the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer, but they’re still not a playoff team or anything like that. Only one team has ever made the playoffs after starting 0-4. Drew Brees has gotten it together now that he’s used to not having Sean Payton around and I don’t think there was ever much doubt that would happen. In his last 3 games, he’s completed 91 of 136 for 11 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, 2 wins and a 1 point loss in Lambeau. He’s on pace to throw for 5592 yards, which would break his own record, and he has a legitimate chance to do so because of how often the Saints pass (he’s also on pace to shatter the record for passing attempts in a season). Drew Brees looks like Drew Brees.

The problem is everything else. This team isn’t back to normal. The defense is atrocious, allowing 30.2 points per game. Last year, when they won 13 games, they were 13th in the league in points allowed. They’re not that kind of team even if Drew Brees looks like Drew Brees again and for that reason they might be overrated right now. They really remind me of the 2008 Saints, when Brees threw for 5000 yards, but they finished 8-8 because they allowed 24.6 points per game, 26th in the league. They should finish somewhere in that 6-8 win range.

Studs

QB Drew Brees: 27 of 37 377 yards, 4 touchdowns, 1 interception, 1 spike, 2 throw aways, 1 drop, 118.6 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 3 of 38 drop backs (1 of 3, 1 throw away)

LG Ben Grubbs: Didn’t allow a pressure on 38 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 24 yards and a touchdown on 8 attempts

C Brian La Puente: Didn’t allow a pressure on 38 pass block snaps, run blocked for 26 yards and a touchdown on 9 attempts

RT Zach Strief: Didn’t allow a pressure on 38 pass block snaps

WR Lance Moore: Caught 9 passes for 121 yards on 10 attempts on 27 pass snaps, 1.0 YAC per catch

LE Junior Galette: 1 sack and 4 quarterback hurries on 29 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops

P Thomas Morestead: 6 kickoffs, 4 touchbacks, 70.3 yards per kickoff, 21.3 opponent’s average starting distance, 4 punts for 205 yards, 2 inside 20, 2 returns for 15 yards, 47.5 net yards per punt

Duds

CB Patrick Robinson: Allowed 6 catches for 156 yards and a touchdown on 12 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 missed tackles

CB Corey White: Allowed 3 catches for 69 yards on 4 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

SS Roman Harper: Allowed 4 catches for 62 yards on 4 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 2 stops, 2 penalties, 1 quarterback hurry on 4 blitzes

MLB Curtis Lofton: 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 3 missed tackles, allowed 3 catches for 23 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts

RE Will Smith: 1 quarterback hurry on 47 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

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New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 7 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Saints

New Orleans Saints (1-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3)

The Saints got their first win 2 weeks ago at home on Sunday Night Football over the Chargers, but their problems are far from solved. They still have a horrific defense, which is a contributing factor to them ranking 26th in the league in yards per play differential and 23rd in rate of sustained drives differential. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, actually ranks 22nd and 25th in those two statistics, which means they match up pretty evenly with the Saints. However, they are still home underdogs here.

I’d like to go into the Buccaneers’ two rankings in those. Before last week’s blowout win over the Chiefs, they ranked significantly lower in both of those categories. I hate putting too much stock into one game, but I do feel like where they were before last week wasn’t a great indicator of the type of team they were. After all, they were just 4 games into the season and I had this as an underrated team heading into the season. I picked against them last week because of how poor they were in those two categories and obviously now I really regret giving up on a preseason underrated team of mine.

Let me get into why I thought they were underrated. In 2010, everything went right for this team. They had an easy schedule and went 9-1 against sub .500 teams (1-5 against everyone else). They turned the ball over just 19 times and, after regressing 6 wins from 2008 to 2009, predictably bounced back. Teams that regress 6 wins win an average of 3.0 more games the following season. The Buccaneers did that and more, going from 3 to 10 wins.

However, in 2011, they predictably declined. Like teams that regress by a big win total, teams that improve by a big win total also tend to go the other direction in the following season. Teams that improve 7 games win an average of 4.5 fewer games the following season. The Buccaneers are very familiar with this principle, going from 9 wins in 2008 to 3 in 2009 to 10 in 2010.

It was easy to see how they’d do it. They turned the ball over less than 20 times in 2010, which is an unsustainable stat for a team without a true elite quarterback. There have been 36 teams since 2002 with 20 or fewer turnovers. In their next season, those teams, have had, on average, 9.64 more turnovers and won 2.69 fewer games. They also had a much tougher schedule and proved in 2010 that they couldn’t beat tough competition.

The Buccaneers ended up regressing more than 4.5 wins. They regressed 6 wins and turned the ball over a whopping 40 times, going 4-12 and losing their last 10 after quitting on Head Coach Raheem Morris. They went from playing 6 games against teams that were .500 or better to 11 and didn’t improve, going 2-9 in those 11 games.

There was definitely reason to be optimistic for the Buccaneers this season. Teams that regress 6 wins win an average of 3.0 more games the following season and teams that turn the ball over 35 times or more have averaged 9.74 fewer turnovers the next season and have won 1.61 more games. Raheem Morris is gone and is replaced with a much more disciplinarian Head Coach in Greg Schiano and the team finally spent money in the offseason. Though they overpaid each one of them, I had no doubt that the trio of Vincent Jackson, Carl Nicks, and Eric Wright, overall, will have a positive impact on this team in 2012, as would several rookies and the return of Gerald McCoy from injury.

I also expected the new coaching staff to bring discipline to a team that missed the most tackles of any team since they started keeping the stat in 2011. Remember, this team had the 9th ranked defense in the league in 2010, allowing 19.9 points per game. I didn’t expect them to be that good, but fewer missed tackles, additions, bounce back years, maturation of young players, an easier schedule, and fewer turnovers from the offense (which puts a ton of pressure on the defense) should have helped this defense be more middle of the pack and right now they rank 12th in points per game allowed.

I was wrong to give up on this preseason underrated team and for that reason, I don’t think it’s an overreaction to one game that I like this team once again. I don’t see how they are 5.5 points worse than the Saints on a neutral field (3 point for homefield advantage). Besides, the Saints struggle on the road even when they’re playing well, going 5-10 ATS as road favorites since 2010. They were road favorites in Tampa Bay last year and lost straight up as well, despite finished 13-3, so I don’t see why that can’t happen again this year. However, the public seems to see it differently as there’s a very heavy public lean on New Orleans. I love fading the public, especially on heavy leans.

This would be a bigger play, but I’m worried about New Orleans coming off a bye. Road favorites off a bye are 75-46 ATS since 2002, however just 34-25 ATS in the division, which isn’t as strong. Besides, I don’t even think the Saints deserve to be road favorites, considering how they’ve played this year and how they normally struggle on the road. I’m certainly not going to take the Saints as road favorites against a team I’m not sure they’re better than. Finally, the Buccaneers are 11-4 in the last 2 years against teams who finish worse than .500. This year, they’ve followed that trend, beating Kansas City and Carolina, but losing to Dallas, Washington, and the Giants. The Saints could easily end up under .500 this year.

Public lean: New Orleans (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Tampa Bay covers)

Sharps lean: NO 16 TB 10

Final update: Slight sharp lean on New Orleans, but Jimmy Graham has been ruled out for the Saints. I’m sticking with Tampa Bay for a small play.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 New Orleans Saints 24 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +2.5 (-110) 2 units

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New Orleans Saints: Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#24)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Saints

Last week: 26 (+2)

Record: 1-4

It was great for Drew Brees to get the win and break Johnny Unitas’ record at home on Sunday Night against his old team with Head Coach Sean Payton watching. This team is off the snide and out of the 1 win teams in the NFL, I’d give them one of the better chances to turn things around. Still, only one team has ever started 0-4 and made the playoffs in NFL history and the Saints need to start reeling off the victories to play catch up in a loaded NFC. I don’t think they have the defense for that. They’re still the favorites to be this year’s team that goes from in the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer, right ahead of Detroit and Cincinnati, my preseason pick to do so whose case was “strengthened” this past week by a home loss to the Dolphins.

Studs

QB Drew Brees: 29 of 45 for 370 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 1 interception, 3 drops, 2 batted passes, 96.3 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 14 of 48 drop backs (3 sacks, 6 of 11, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception)

RG Jahri Evans: Did not allow a pressure on 49 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 26 yards on 6 attempts

LT Jermon Bushrod: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 49 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards on 1 attempt

WR Marques Colston: Caught 9 passes for 131 yards and 3 touchdowns on 18 attempts on 46 pass snaps, 2.7 YAC per catch, 1 drop

WR Devery Henderson: Caught 8 passes for 123 yards and a touchdown on 10 attempts on 43 pass snaps, 2.0 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

P Thomas Morestead: 3 punts for 157 yards, 2 inside 20, 2 returns for 16 yards, 47.0 yards per punt, 7 kickoffs, 1 touchback, 68.1 yards per punt, 20.3 opponent’s average starting distance

Duds

LG Ben Grubbs: Allowed 2 quarterback hurries and 1 quarterback hit on 49 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 8 yards on 3 attempts

TE Jimmy Graham: Caught 1 pass for 4 yards on 2 attempts on 29 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

CB Corey White: Allowed 5 catches for 100 yards and 2 touchdowns on 9 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle, 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 4 blitzes

MLB Curtis Lofton: Allowed 7 catches for 66 yards on 8 attempts, 7 solo tackles, 4 stops, 2 missed tackle, 1 sack on 4 blitzes

FS Malcolm Jenkins: Allowed 1 catch for 24 yards on 3 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles, 4 missed tackles, 1 penalty

LE Cameron Jordan: 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 51 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

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San Diego Chargers (3-1) at New Orleans Saints (0-4)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 5 NFL Picks, Chargers, Saints

San Diego Chargers (3-1) at New Orleans Saints (0-4)

Last year, the Chargers started 4-1. It was a shock to many people before they’re normally horrible early in the season, especially compared to later in the season. Prior to last year, The Chargers were 14-12 from weeks 1-4 under Philip Rivers and 41-11 (41-11!!!) from weeks 6-17. However, their 4-1 record was explainable because they were beating up on bad teams like Kansas City, Miami, Minnesota, and Denver (Prebow). Eventually, they went on a 6 game losing streak, which essentially eliminated them from the playoffs, despite a strong 4-1 finish, as usual.

This year, they are 3-1, the 2nd straight year they’ve had a winning September record under Philip Rivers and still only the 2nd time in that time period that they’ve had a winning September record. Have they ended their normal September woes or is this going to be a repeat of last year? I lean more towards the latter. They’re not going to be as bad as they were last year. I still think they’ll win the division, but it’s worth noting who their 3 early season wins were against: Oakland, Tennessee, and Kansas City, who are all 1-3. Meanwhile, they got blown out at home by Atlanta and in spite of their 3-1 record, they do have a negative yards per play differential.

The Saints, however, are 0-4. In spite of that, you could still argue this is the 2nd best team they’ve played all year. Despite their record, I don’t believe the Saints are awful. They won 13 games last year and even without Sean Payton, they still have Drew Brees. They looked pretty good last week, almost winning in Lambeau Field and they should continue to look improved as they continue to adjust to life without Sean Payton. Teams that are 0-4 or worse are actually 6-2 ATS since 1989 as favorites of more than 3. This is truly New Orleans’ last stand and in the Superdome (where they were 9-0 ATS and SU last year), I expect this proud, veteran team to put up one final huge effort to save their season.

Meanwhile, this is the type of game San Diego normally loses. Facing Denver next week, they’re not going to be focused for a 0-4 non-conference opponent. They are just 4-8 ATS under Norv Turner in a non-conference game before a divisional game. They don’t do well with non-conference games in general, as illustrated by that Atlanta game. It’s only a small play because I haven’t really been able to get a read on either of these teams thus far this year (1-3 on San Diego’s game and 0-4 on New Orleans’ games) and because the “real” line formula says we do have line value with San Diego and because the public likes New Orleans too, but I do feel that New Orleans will play their best game of the season this week and do it against a San Diego team that has one of their patented “fall flat” games.

Public lean: New Orleans (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if San Diego covers)

Sharps lean: NO 20 SD 6

Final update: Sharps really love New Orleans. I liked them to begin with, but I’m adding a unit. This is their last stand and San Diego has proven they don’t really care about non-conference games under Norv Turner with a divisional game up next. They head home to face Denver next week.

New Orleans Saints 31 San Diego Chargers 24

Pick against spread: New Orleans -3.5 (-110) 3 units

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New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers: Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks, Packers, Saints

New Orleans Saints (0-3) at Green Bay Packers (1-2)

The Saints and Packers are a combined 1-5 three weeks in the season. Raise your hand if you saw that coming. I strangely see no hands. This is a huge, must win game for both teams, and given that we should expect huge performances from both quarterbacks. You know it’s really not sitting well with both of these quarterbacks that they are where they are right now. Aaron Rodgers has lost more games than he did all last regular season and Brees has lost the same amount.

Given that, it’s pretty tough to know what to expect from this game. However, I do think it’s more likely than Aaron Rodgers and company has a huge offensive game than Drew Brees and company. For one, Brees’ struggles are explainable. He’s without Head Coach Sean Payton and he looks eerily similar to the quarterback he was in San Diego, before his injury of course, and before meeting up with Sean Payton. Aaron Rodgers’ struggles are less explainable. Greg Jennings’ hasn’t been 100% so that may have something to do with it, but he should be healthier in this one.

More likely, it’s just a fluke and what better way to snap out of your slump than to face New Orleans’ 30th ranked passing defense which just made Matt Cassel look passable. They also struggle against the run, which is why they rank tied for 30th in the league in yards per play allowed. They just let Jamaal Charles go off on them and they rank 31st against the run, so the Packers will be able to establish Cedric Benson. Another possible explanation for Rodgers’ struggles is just the strength of schedule, playing San Francisco, Chicago, and Seattle all of whom have great defenses. The Saints have far from one, so expect a vintage Rodgers performance.

I’m not as sure that we’re getting a vintage Brees performance. Green Bay’s defense has actually been pretty solid this year after that opening day embarrassing, but strength of schedule is obviously a factor there. Alex Smith, Jay Cutler (on a Thursday Night), and Russell Wilson are much of a next, at least not compared to Drew Brees, but there’s no guarantee he’ll ever be able to overcome the loss of Payton and look like his 2009-2011 self. Ordinarily, I would just grab the points, especially since it’s a big line, because Drew Brees is 30-20 ATS as a dog, but this is obviously a very different circumstance. There’s no public lean either way so I’ll just take the hosts for a very small play.

Public lean: Green Bay (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if New Orleans covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): NO 5 GB 2

Update: Sharps agree with me they have no clue what to think of this game. Only 7 of the sharps have this game in their top 5, least of any game. Part of me likes the Packers to bounce back much more than the Saints. Part of me just wants to grab the point, fade the public, and go with the slight sharps lean. I’m sticking with my original pick, but if I did 0 unit picks, this would be one of them.

Green Bay Packers 34 New Orleans Saints 24

Pick against spread: Green Bay -7.5 (-110) 1 unit

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New Orleans Saints: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#26)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Saints

Last week: 16 (-10)

Record: 0-3

Every year, one team goes from in the playoffs to winning 5 or fewer games the next season. Is this team that bad? They are one of two 0-3 teams left in the NFL. They rank 29th in yards per play differential. Drew Brees doesn’t look bad, but he’s not his normal self. Remember who he was before Sean Payton. He wasn’t a bad quarterback; in fact, he was one of the better ones in the league before he got hurt, but he wasn’t the same quarterback as he’s been for years and that appears to be the case once again. Meanwhile, their defense is horrendous. In 2008, they went 8-8 despite Drew Brees throwing for 5000 yards. Imagine that year without Drew Brees throwing for 5000 yards and I think you’ve got a reasonable expectation for the 2012 Saints the rest of the way. Is that 5 win bad? Maybe, maybe not. Right now, they’re the leader in the clubhouse though to go from in the playoffs to 5 wins or less, “competing” with the Lions and my preseason pick, the Bengals.

Studs

LG Ben Grubbs: Did not allow a pressure on 41 pass block snaps, run blocked for 18 yards on 3 attempts

CB Jabari Greer: Allowed 6 catches for 53 yards on 10 attempts, 1 interception, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

LE Junior Galette: 2 sacks and 2 quarterback hits on 23 pass rush snaps, 2 stops

P Thomas Morestead: 7 kickoffs, 2 touchbacks, 68.9 yards per kickoff, 19.9 opponent average starting yards, 6 punts for 335 yards, 1 inside 20, 3 returns for 40 yards, 45.8 net yards per punt

Duds

RT Zach Strief: Allowed 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback pressures on 41 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 2 attempts

TE Jimmy Graham: Caught 4 passes for 16 yards and a touchdown on 8 targets on 28 pass plays, 0.5 YAC per catch, 2 drops

LOLB Scott Shanle: Allowed 2 catches for 23 yards on 2 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops

LE Cameron Jordan: 1 quarterback hurry on 47 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 5 stops

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Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Saints

Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) at New Orleans Saints (0-2)

I don’t think anyone really knew how the Saints would respond to BountyGate and the corresponding BountyGate penalties. Would they fall flat? Would they go into eff you mode? Would it not really matter? I leaned more on the positive side because Sean Payton was an offensive coach and Drew Brees could handle the offense by himself basically and because they wouldn’t be changing much scheme wise. I also acknowledged that the Saints had one of the most talented rosters in the NFL and would have probably been my Super Bowl pick in ordinary circumstances. However, here the Saints stand 2 games into the season at 0-2, a record at which teams go on to make the playoffs about 12% of the time. In terms of yards per play differential, they rank a mere 28th.

What’s interesting is that their problems have not really been offensive. They’re not the prolific offense they were last year, but 59 points in 2 games isn’t half bad. The problem is the defense, specifically the pass defense. They’ve surrendered 72 points total and are allowing 12.5 YPA, a ridiculous number considering the next worst team is at 9.7 YPA (for reference, the NFL record for YPA allowed in a season is 8.8, by the 2008 Lions). They also rank 25th in pass rush efficiency.

So what’s happened? Isn’t Steve Spagnuolo a Super Bowl winning defensive coordinator? Wasn’t he supposed to coach up their young pass rushers? Isn’t that his specialty? Wasn’t Sean Payton an offensive Head Coach? It’s not that they miss Jonathan Vilma, because he was terrible last year and replacements Curtis Lofton and David Hawthorne are much better than he is. Do they miss Gregg Williams and his excellent motivational speeches?

Well, one of the problems has been injuries. Jabari Greer, their top cornerback, missed the opener and was limited in their 2nd game, while nickel cornerback Johnny Patrick has done the opposite. He left the opener with an injury and didn’t play last week. As a result, Corey White has had to play every defensive snap except for 2. As you would expect, the 5th round rookie cornerback has been torched, allowing 10 catches for 171 yards and a touchdown on 11 attempts. He is currently ProFootballFocus’ 2nd worst rated cornerback.

The good news is that Greer should be closer to 100% this week and Patrick will be back, so White will go back to being the 4th cornerback, where he belongs. This secondary is actually pretty talented. Last year, despite a league worst pass rush in pass rush efficiency, they ranked 14th against the pass. All 4 starters allowed less than 60% completion. Being closer to full strength should help their coverage problems, even if the pass rush doesn’t step up.

One other thing that’s in play is their schedule. Neither Carolina nor Washington is a football powerhouse, but they can both pass the ball well and they’re hardly welcoming teams to a team trying to adjust to life without their Head Coach. This week, their opponent is much more welcoming. The Chiefs are also 0-2 and rank one spot lower than the Saints in yards per play differential at 29th. They haven’t been competitive either of their games, something only the Titans can also say, losing both by at least 16 points and last week they were down 35-3 to the Bills after 3 quarters before 2 garbage time touchdowns.

They’ve been just as bad defensively as the Saints have. They’ve allowed 75 points in 2 games. Allowing 40 points in the opener to Atlanta is excusable because they were down their top two defensive players in Tamba Hali and Brandon Flowers and facing a very tough offense, but allowing 35 to the Bills at close to full strength is not excusable. Romeo Crennel is a great defensive coordinator, but he’s also the Head Coach, so you have to wonder if he has too much on his plate to coordinate a successful defense like he did last year. This team’s conservative game plan had been scrapped in the first 2 games as they’ve passed 75 times to 57 runs, which has put a lot of pressure on Matt Cassel and they’ve predictably turned the ball over 6 times, 2nd worst in the league.

I don’t give them any chance of stopping Drew Brees and company this week so it will be more playing from behind for the Chiefs and even against New Orleans’ pass defense, I don’t think Matt Cassel will be able to keep up the way Robert Griffin and Cam Newton did, especially with New Orleans being much closer to 100% in this one injury wise defensively. The Saints are also in their 3rd game without Sean Payton and they should get better as the season goes on. Besides, teams that make the playoffs and then start 0-2 the following year are 16-7 ATS since 2003 week 3. Typically, talented former playoff teams get things together by week 3.

I expect that to continue to be the case here as the Saints at home, where they are still 9-1 ATS in their last 10 despite the week 1 loss, should blow out the lowly Chiefs, who have been blown out an awful lot over the last 2 plus years. 11 of their 18 losses over the last 2 plus years have been by 16 or more points, including playoffs. This game should make it 12 of 19. New Orleans is also my Survivor Pick for anyone still alive (namely, people who didn’t listen to me last week when I picked New England). It might sound weird to pick an 0-2 team in survivor, but all of the good teams are either playing each other this week or on the road and I’m pretty confident the Saints will win here at home against the Chiefs. I can’t see them going 0-3.

Three things keep this from being a bigger bet. One is a trend that says that teams in their 2nd straight road game as underdogs off a loss are 57-38 ATS since 2008. The other is just the size of the line. Even though I expect a blow out game, I don’t like betting heavily on big favorites. Three, most of the action is on New Orleans this week. I like to go against the public every chance I get (the public is 13-19 this year and getting killed in games like this where a ton of the action is on one side), but I’m still taking New Orleans for a moderate sized wager.

Public lean: New Orleans (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Kansas City covers)

New Orleans Saints 37 Kansas City Chiefs 20 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE)

Pick against spread: New Orleans -9 (-105) 3 units

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New Orleans Saints: Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#16)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Saints

Last week: 7 (-9)

Record: 0-2

Now it’s time to start pressing the button panic. The Saints haven’t been eliminated or anything, but they’re 0-2 and only 12% of teams that start 0-2 make the playoffs. They’ll get better as the season goes on as they get used to not having Sean Payton around, but right now they lack cohesion, particularly on defense, and they rank 28th in points per play differential. The good news, they head home now, where they were 9-0 SU and ATS last year, and are 9 point favorites against a Chiefs team that’s also 0-2. Since 2003, teams that miss the playoffs and go 0-2 the following year are 16-7 ATS week 3. I think 3rd time will be the charm for the Saints this week.

Studs

RB Pierre Thomas: Rushed for 110 yards (70 after contact) on 9 carries, 7 broken tackles, allowed 1 quarterback hit on 2 pass block snaps, caught 4 passes for 33 yards on 4 targets

RB Darren Sproles: Caught 13 passes for 128 yards on 14 attempts, 1 drop, no carries

RE Will Smith: 2 quarterback pressures on 22 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 3 assists, 4 stops

Duds

LT Jermon Bushrod: Allowed 3 quarterback hits and 7 quarterback pressures on 51 pass block snaps, run blocked for 50 yards on 2 attempts

WR Lance Moore: Caught 2 passes for 30 yards on 3 targets on 49 pass snaps, 4.5 YAC per catch, 1 drop

CB Corey White: Allowed 5 catches for 120 yards on 6 attempts, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

DT Sedrick Ellis: Did not record a pressure on 15 pass snaps, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

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