Saints

Missing several receivers, Saints will give Joseph Morgan a chance

stevenlourie Saints

The Saints are missing several depth receivers with injury. They’ve already put Nick Toon and Adrian Arrington on IR, while Devery Henderson will miss this week with a concussion. However, the NFL is a next man up league and for the Saints, that next man up is 2011 undrafted free agent Joseph Morgan. Morgan, out of Walsh University, made his NFL debut last week and was very quiet, failing to record a catch on 2 targets on 30 pass snaps, but in his 2nd NFL game, he could bounce back and should play a higher percentage of the passing snaps (last week he played exactly half).

Still, he remains a poor fantasy option as Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, Lance Moore, and Darren Sproles all figure to be more popular targets than him. Moore gets a boost up in fantasy leagues though with Morgan out. Moore led the team with 6 catches for 120 yards in the opener and has always stepped up when need be in the past. Moore is no slouch, with 118 catches for 1390 yards and 16 touchdowns in the last 2 seasons combined and is a borderline WR3 in fantasy leagues this week.

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New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Panthers, Saints

New Orleans Saints (0-1) at Carolina Panthers (0-1)

I thought the Saints would be alright even after the offseason they just had. Their defensive losses weren’t huge (Will Smith was even reinstated for the opener and Jonathan Vilma is incredibly overrated) and the loss of the coaches would mostly effect the offense, where Drew Brees would function well as a stabilizing force. They certainly didn’t look alright in the opener, losing to home, where they won all 9 games last year, and while they may be better later in the season, once they have a few more games under their belt without Sean Payton, they won’t look like the normal Saints early in the season.

So can the Saints beat the Panthers in Carolina if they’re not the normal Saints? Well, they certainly could. This is still a talented team. There is a major question though as this team goes on the road. They’re a great home team, but they have trouble on the road, especially outside and especially over the past 2 years, as they are 7-11 ATS on the road and 12-5 ATS at home.

Honestly, I don’t really have a strong opinion on this. Could the Saints come out like the Packers did on Thursdsay night, kill any talk of a down year and an 0-2 start to the season and demolish a divisional rival? Sure, they could. Drew Brees is 20-12 ATS off a loss as a member of the Saints and this is a key game. He is the type of quarterback who wins key games. Could the Saints also be more dysfunctional than we thought (or as dysfunctional as they looked in the opener) and come out and struggle to beat a Carolina team that is underrated off a loss to an underrated Bucs team? Sure they could. After all, the Panthers covered as home dogs against the Saints last year and almost won, losing by just 3 and I think we can all agree, this version of the Saints is inferior.

I want to go with the Panthers because the Saints are clearly the public lean and I love “fading” the public and the Panthers almost beat the Saints last year, but something tells me, after seeing the Packers play last night, that this will be a huge statement game for the Saints, and that they aren’t as bad as they looked last week, so I’m going with Drew Brees and his 20-12 ATS record as a Saint after a loss to bounce back this week.

Public lean: New Orleans (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Carolina covers)

New Orleans Saints 31 Carolina Panthers 27

Pick against spread: New Orleans -3 (-105) 1 unit

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New Orleans Saints: Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#7)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Saints

Last week: 6 (-1)

Record: 0-1

It’s not quite time to hit the panic button in New Orleans. They’ll get better as the season goes on. After the offseason they had, it’s understandable if they struggle out of the gate and if anyone can get through this, it’s a Drew Brees led team. However, they need to win the division to go anywhere in the playoffs because I don’t trust them to win a road playoff game and Atlanta looks like the better team right now. Those two divisional matchups with the Falcons could decide their season. Up next is a young Carolina team in Carolina. They can’t afford to go 0-2 so they’ll have to get over their road woes.

Studs

TE Jimmy Graham: 6 catches for 85 yards and a touchdown on 9 targets on 47 pass plays, 3.5 YAC per catch

LE Cameron Jordan: 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback pressure on 31 pass rush snaps, 9 solo tackles, 3 assists, 9 stops on 45 run snaps

DT Brodrick Bunkley: 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, and 4 stops on 29 run snaps, 1 sack on 21 pass rush snaps

P Thomas Morestead: 6 kickoffs, 4 touchbacks, 72.7 average yards per kickoff, 19.2 average starting distance, 5 punts for 278 yards, 4 returns allowed for 34 yards, 48.8 net yards per punt

Duds

WR Joe Morgan: 0 catches on 2 targets on 31 pass plays

WR Marques Colston: 4 catches for 71 yards on 10 targets on 54 pass plays, 2.5 YAC per catch, 2 dropped passes, 1 interception when thrown to

SS Roman Harper: Allowed 3 catches for 111 yards and a touchdown on 4 targets, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 missed tackles on 45 run snaps, 1 quarterback pressure on 3 blitzes

ROLB David Hawthorne: 5 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle, 3 stops on 41 run snaps, allowed 4 catches for 50 yards on 4 attempts

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Suspensions in Saints’ bounty scandal overturned

stevenlourie News, Saints

In possibly the most shocking story of the offseason, with two days to go before their season opener against the Redskins, the Saints found out yesterday that the players suspended in their bounty scandal would be reinstated as the suspensions were overturned by an appeals court. The coaches and front office members who were originally suspended will still be suspended, but the appeals court determined that the NFL did not have enough evidence to suspend the players, in what has to be one of the biggest challenges to his authority in Roger Goodell’s tenure as NFL Commissioner. Goodell and the rest of the NFL front office will now have to come up with sufficient evidence to suspend the players allegedly involved, if they chose to continue to try to discipline those players they believe are guilty of wrongdoing.

While this is obviously a huge moral victory for the players, especially Jonathan Vilma, the most vocal protestor of the suspensions and a player who was set to miss the entire season with suspension, the timing is still bittersweet. Vilma has been away from the team for most of the offseason with a new defensive coaching staff coming in, has been replaced by free agents David Hawthorne and Curtis Lofton, and has had 3 knee surgeries since November, so he’s not only in no position to make any kind of early season impact, but he’s no longer really needed by the team.

The Saints placed Vilma, a declining 30 year old player, on the reserve/PUP list, which means he’ll have to sit out at least the first 6 games of the season. He’ll get to collect game checks, which he wouldn’t have ordinarily been able to, but his chances of making any positive impact for the Saints this season is pretty limited. ProFootballFocus’ 51st ranked middle linebacker out of 53 in 2011, Vilma is owed 5.9 million next season and, after taking a pay cut just to stay on the roster this season, this year might be his last in a Saints uniform, if he even plays at all. Still with a stigma attached to his name, whether the allegations are true or not, it’ll be interesting to see if he would get any interest on the open market as a 31 year old next offseason.

As for Will Smith, he was only going to be suspended for 4 games, so he’s been practicing with the team and does have a chance to suit up for the Saints this weekend. Smith wasn’t great last season, with 7 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 34 quarterback pressures on 630 pass rush snaps, including playoffs, a respectable, but not great 9.2% pass rush rate, but this team was the league’s worst rated pass rushing team last season in terms of pass rush productivity (sacks + .75 hits + .75 pressures/total pass rush snaps). They may have had 33 sacks, not a terrible number, but they blitzed more than any team in the league to do even that. With Smith, Junior Galette, a talented situational pass rusher last season, 2nd year player Cameron Jordan, and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, who is great with pass rushers, the Saints may have enough to take advantage of a Redskins offensive line that looked terrible in the preseason and ranked 28th in pass blocking efficiency last season.

Anthony Hargrove, another suspended player, is currently not on a roster after being cut by the Packers last month, while Scott Fujita is the only formerly suspended player currently on a roster other than the Saints’. Fujita was set to miss the first 3 games of the season and has not practiced all week, but the Browns may start him out of desperation. Missing starter Chris Gocong and top reserve James-Michael Johnson, the Browns were originally going to start undrafted rookie LJ Fort and career backup and special teamer Kaluka Maiava at 2 of their 3 linebacker spot this week, which would have put them at a major disadvantage against a tough matchup in the Eagles.

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Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Commanders, Saints

Washington Redskins (0-0) at New Orleans Saints (0-0)

Buy tickets for this game

Welcome to the NFL Robert Griffin. For your first test, you have to go to the Superdome and play Drew Brees and the Saints where they didn’t lose all of last season (9-0 SU and ATS!!!). The Saints have obviously been hurt this offseason by BountyGate and possibly, to a lesser extent, by Drew Brees’ extended contract negotiations, which caused him to miss valuable pre-Training Camp practice time and possibly hurt locker room morale. However, the BountyGate losses they suffered are not huge. Jonathan Vilma was one of the worst middle linebackers in the league last year and looked pretty washed up. Free agent additions David Hawthorne and Curtis Lofton will more than make up for his loss and will turn linebacker, a position of weakness for the Saints in 2011, into a strength. They also added Brodrick Bunkley, the league’s top run stuffing defensive tackle last season.

The bigger loss will be Will Smith at defensive end. On paper, this seems like a huge blow to an already bad Saints’ pass rush. Smith wasn’t great last season, with 7 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 34 quarterback pressures on 630 pass rush snaps, including playoffs, a respectable, but not great 9.2% pass rush rate, but this team was the league’s worst rated pass rushing team last season in terms of pass rush productivity (sacks + .75 hits + .75 pressures/total pass rush snaps). They may have had 33 sacks, not a terrible number, but they blitzed more than any team in the league to do even that.

However, the Saints may have a diamond in the rough waiting in the wings behind Smith. Junior Galette, a 2010 undrafted free agent, played very well as a situational pass rusher last season and will be the starter in Smith’s absence this season. On 339 pass rush snaps, he had 4 sacks, 11 quarterback hits, and 19 quarterback pressures, a 10.0% pass rush rate. New Saints’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is known for getting the most out of pass rushers, so he should have a positive effect on not just the career of Galette, but Cameron Jordan, the opposite starter, a 2011 1st round pick who struggled as a pass rusher as a rookie last season. Even with Smith missing 4 games with suspension, they should be a more efficient pass rushing team this season and they should be able to get some pressure against a Washington offensive line that was one of the worst in the league last year and didn’t look any better in the preseason.

The Saints’ biggest loss was Head Coach Sean Payton, but they still have Drew Brees and, for what’s it worth, the Saints 1st team offense didn’t seem to miss a beat in the preseason. If anyone can come out the other side of the offseason they just had and still compete, it’s the Saints. Drew Brees is like an assistant head coach and they’re not changing things up much so they should still be more than fine offensively. They’re an incredibly talented team, possibly even more so than last year, and would have probably been my Super Bowl pick had it not been for the off the field issues they had in the offseason. I think they’re a bit underrated right now. They’re just -7  here. For reference, the Falcons were -7 coming into New Orleans week 16 last year. They finished 10-6. The Lions, same record, were -10 in the playoffs in New Orleans.

The Redskins are also underrated right now, but I don’t think they deserve to be just +7. Robert Griffin doesn’t have a great offensive line, but he’s got plenty of offensive weapons in the receiving corps and Mike Shanahan teams have always been able to run the ball, no matter who is starting at running back. Griffin’s rushing ability will also help open things up for whichever back starts this game. Defensively, the secondary is a problem, but they have a much underrated front 7 with two great pass rushers in Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan, one of the best middle linebackers of all time in London Fletcher, a budding young linebacker in Perry Riley, and two solid defensive linemen in Barry Cofield and Stephen Bowen. They won 5 games last year despite awful quarterback play. They should be a solid .500 team this year. Griffin’s presence will make a huge difference, just like Cam Newton did with the Panthers last year (Griffin’s got the superior supporting cast).

However, it may take Griffin a little bit to become acclimated to the NFL. One of the things I love doing is betting against rookie quarterbacks week 1. They tend to, predictably, struggle in their first NFL action. Since 1994, rookie quarterbacks have completed 55% of their passes, averaged 6 yards YPA, and thrown twice as many picks as touchdowns during weeks 1-4. I get 5 chances to do that this week, as Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, and Russell Wilson will all get the week 1 start for their respective teams. Griffin didn’t face particularly tough defenses in the Big 12, nor did he have to run a very tough offense and, while I don’t have too many concerns about his long term success, he might struggle out of the gate, especially in New Orleans against a Saints team that might be awfully pissed off after the offseason. Besides, I’m not betting against the Saints in New Orleans.

Update: Player suspensions in the bounty scandal overturned. Even if the players returning don’t have a positive effect on the game for the Saints, it’s a huge morale boost for the team. I’m adding an extra unit.

New Orleans Saints 34 Washington Redskins 20

Pick against spread: New Orleans Saints -7 (-115) 3 units

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Junior Galette to start in absence of Will Smith for Saints

stevenlourie News, Saints

Will Smith, the Saints’ leading pass rusher on the defensive line last season, has been suspended for the first 4 games of the season for his role in the Saints’ bounty scandal. On paper, this seems like a huge blow to an already bad Saints’ pass rush. Smith wasn’t great last season, with 7 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 34 quarterback pressures on 630 pass rush snaps, including playoffs, a respectable, but not great 9.2% pass rush rate, but this team was the league’s worst rated pass rushing team last season in terms of pass rush productivity (sacks + .75 hits + .75 pressures/total pass rush snaps). They may have had 33 sacks, not a terrible number, but they blitzed more than any team in the league to do even that.

However, the Saints may have a diamond in the rough waiting in the wings behind Smith. Junior Galette, a 2010 undrafted free agent, played very well as a situational pass rusher last season and will be the starter in Smith’s absence this season. On 339 pass rush snaps, he had 4 sacks, 11 quarterback hits, and 19 quarterback pressures, a 10.0% pass rush rate.

New Saints’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is known for getting the most out of pass rushers, so he should have a positive effect on not just the career of Galette, but Cameron Jordan, the opposite starter, a 2011 1st round pick who struggled as a pass rusher as a rookie last season. The Saints desperately need Galette to step up as a starting caliber defensive end, not just for this season, but for the future. Smith is owed a whopping 9 million in 2013, his age 32 season, and he’s very unlikely to see that money unless he can have a major bounce back season this year, unlikely since he’ll only play 12 games max. If Galette cannot emerge as a successor, they’ll probably have to use an early pick on a defensive end in the 2013 NFL Draft, for the 2nd time in 3 years.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Seattle Seahawks trade MLB Barrett Ruud to New Orleans Saints

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Offseason Moves 2012, Saints, Seahawks

Trade for Saints: The Saints obviously felt they needed added depth at linebacker. David Hawthorne and Curtis Lofton have suffered knee and ankle injuries respectively and their statuses for week 1 are up in the air, while Chris Chamberlain tore his ACL and will be put on IR. However, Ruud, once one of the better linebackers in the league, has had his career decimated by injuries and has been one of the worst linebackers in the league over the past 2 seasons.

In 2010, he was ProFootballFocus’ 49th ranked middle linebacker out of 50, starting 16 games for the Buccaneers, and in 2011, he was their 48th ranked middle linebacker out of 51 and was benched midseason for Colin McCarthy, after starting the first 8 games of the season. This offseason, he signed in Seattle for a minimum contract and lost his starting job very early in the offseason to a mere 2nd round rookie, Bobby Wagner. He comes very cheap for the Saints, an undisclosed draft pick and a veteran’s minimum salary, but he won’t provide anything positive for this team. The fact that they had to give up anything at all for him is ridiculous.

Grade: C

Trade for Seahawks: Ruud wasn’t much use to the Seahawks because he couldn’t give carve out even a situational role behind a rookie. I’m surprised they were able to get anything for him.

Grade: A

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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New Orleans Saints Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Patrick Robinson

stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, Saints

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the New Orleans Saints, that player is cornerback Patrick Robinson.

Patrick Robinson was a 1st round pick of the New Orleans Saints in 2010 and he played very well limited action last season, essentially playing every 3-cornerback set and splitting time as the #2 cornerback in 2-cornerbacks sets with Tracy Porter last season. Robinson played 756 snaps as opposed to Porter’s 706, but now that Porter is gone, he’s a full time starter and could approach the 1016 snaps played by #1 cornerback Jabari Greer last year.

Despite his limited playing time, Robinson graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 19th rated cornerback last year, in large part because he ranked 8th among eligible cornerbacks with a 59.3 QB rating allowed. He allowed 42 completions on 76 attempts (55.3%) for 523 yards (6.9 YPA), 1 touchdown, and 4 interceptions, while deflecting 10 passes and committing 2 penalties.

He also did this with a terrible pass rush in front of him, which ProFootballFocus rated by far the worst in the league. They managed 33 sacks last year, but that was despite blitzing more than any team in the league. New defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is known for getting the most out of pass rushers and getting pressure without blitzing, which should make life easier for the defensive backs. Heading into his 3rd year in the league, Robinson has the potential to break out as one of the top cornerbacks in the league.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Saints want Mark Ingram to be a 200 touch player

stevenlourie News, Saints

Mark Ingram is healthy and the Saints reportedly want him to have 200 touches or more this season, according to the New Orleans Times-Picayune. He was on pace for 213 as a rookie in 10 games, before missing 6 with injury. There’s definitely upside in fantasy football with him potentially having a breakout year in 2012. He’ll also get the goal line carries, which there figure to be plenty of in New Orleans.

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New Orleans Saints 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

stevenlourie News, Saints

OT Jermon Bushrod

On the surface, Bushrod is a valuable member of the Saints’ offense. He has allowed just 7 sacks in the last 2 seasons on one of the league’s most pass heavy offenses and made the Pro-Bowl last year. Pro-Bowl offensive tackles are rarely allowed to hit the open market, almost as rarely as Pro-Bowl quarterbacks. However, while Bushrod has one of the most important blindsides in the NFL to protect, he also has one of the easiest. Drew Brees doesn’t quite have Peyton Manning’s legendary pocket presence, but he’s pretty close.

He essentially protects his own blindside with how well he feels the pass rush and how quickly he makes decisions and releases the ball. Brees has only taken a sack 82 times in the last 4 years on 674 pressured drop backs (12.2%), the best rate in the league over that period by who has played in all 4 seasons (sorry, Peyton Manning). A deeper look at Bushrod’s stats shows that he is really a product of Drew Brees’ abilities. Bushrod has allowed 20 quarterback hits and 90 quarterback pressures in the last 2 seasons, yet only the aforementioned 7 sacks.

The Saints were pretty backed up against the cap this offseason and the massive extension they gave to Brees this off-season doesn’t help matters cap wise. The Saints would be wise not to commit another large sum of money for the 2013 season to Bushrod, who is really a replacement level player disguised as a Pro-Bowler with the help of his quarterback. They seem to agree as the two sides have not yet begun long term extension talks. The Saints have Charles Brown, a 2010 2nd round pick, as an in house replacement, if needed, though the Saints would resign Bushrod at the right price.

Likelihood: Unlikely

DT Sedrick Ellis

Ellis is even less likely than Bushrod. The Saints really don’t have the cap space to franchise any position player next offseason, unless they absolutely deserve it and Ellis deserves it even less than Bushrod, unless he can have a bounce back year in 2012. A 2008 1st round pick, Ellis has graded out as a below average defensive tackle on ProFootballFocus since his rookie season in 2008. In 2008, he had 4 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 28 quarterback pressures and from 2009 to 2011, he had 11 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 46 quarterback pressures, while struggling as a run stuffer the whole time.

Likelihood: Very unlikely

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