Seahawks

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: 2016 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 3 NFL Picks, 49ers, NFL Picks, Seahawks, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (1-1) at Seattle Seahawks (1-1)

The Seahawks’ offense has struggled mightily through the first two games of the season, producing just one touchdown and moving the chains at a 63.93% rate. Only Minnesota, Houston, and Los Angeles are moving the chains at a lower rate than the Seahawks. The Seahawks’ defense remains strong, but this line is 9.5 points so their offense is going to need to perform significantly better for the Seahawks at cover as favorites. So why has their offense been so uncharacteristically bad? Well, they have probably the best receiving corps of any Seahawks team in the Russell Wilson era, but they also have probably the worst offensive line in the NFL and haven’t been able to establish the run like they’re used to. Russell Wilson, meanwhile, has dealt with an ankle sprain that has limited his running ability through 2 games and likely has also limited him as a passer.

Wilson getting healthy would go a long way towards fixing this offense and he figures to be at least somewhat healthier this week. This offense would also be helped by Christine Michael taking the running back job and running with it. He’s only out-carried Thomas Rawls 25-19 through 2 games, but has averaged 5.04 yards per carry to 1.32 yards per carry for Rawls, who is not all the way back from the broken leg that ended his season in 2015. Rawls is not expected to play this week after a setback, so Michael could have a strong game against the 49ers, which would obviously be huge. However, their offensive line is going to remain a problem all season and the 49ers have a promising young defense that has played well thus far this season.

The 49ers are also in a good spot in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 131-95 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 106-64 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 226-229 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.51 points per game, as opposed to 325-444 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.79 points per game. I couldn’t put any money on them, but the 49ers should be the right side.

Seattle Seahawks 17 San Francisco 49ers 9

Pick against the spread: San Francisco +9.5

Confidence: Low

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Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 2 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Rams, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (1-0) at Los Angeles Rams (0-1)

Coming into the season, I had the Rams as one of the worst teams in the league. They won 7 games last season, but they also needed good luck in close games to even go 7-9. Of those 7 wins, 5 came by 8 points or fewer, while only 3 of their 9 losses did, as they finished 30th in rate of moving the chains differential overall and their offense ranked dead last in rate of moving the chains. This off-season, they got even worse overall. They lost a pair of talented defensive starters in Janoris Jenkins and Rodney McLeod in free agency and traded away their entire draft to move up to #1 to reach for California quarterback Jared Goff, who won’t even be the starter to begin the season.

The Rams sure looked like one of the worst teams in the league last week, when they lost to another one of the worst teams in the league, the San Francisco 49ers, in blowout fashion, by the final score of 28-0. Road favorites of 2.5 points going into the game, the Rams’ offense ended up moving the chains at a mere 41.67% rate, while their defense allowed the 49ers to move the chains at a 76.19% rate. Starter Case Keenum is a backup caliber quarterback, with little to no help on offense around him. Jared Goff will be active as the #2 quarterback this week, after being inactive as the 3rd quarterback week 1, but he’s reportedly nowhere near ready and head coach Jeff Fisher still would prefer Keenum to start all season, even after last week’s disaster. That tells us that either Jared Goff is alarmingly behind in his development or that head coach Jeff Fisher is a poor judge of talent. Neither option is good for the Rams.

This week, the Rams head home to their new home in Los Angeles, after their off-season move from St. Louis, and open with about as tough of an opponent as they could have had, with the Seattle Seahawks coming to town. The Seahawks were unimpressive in a near home loss to the lowly Dolphins last week, but that could easily prove to be a fluke. The game was not as close as the final score suggested anyway, as the Seahawks had 10 more first downs than the Dolphins and moved the chains at a 70.97% rate, as opposed to 54.55% for the Dolphins. The Seahawks just had two killer turnovers that the Dolphins didn’t. Turnover margin tends to be pretty inconsistent from week-to-week and the Seahawks typically do very well with the turnover battle.

I see no reason why the Seahawks couldn’t give the Rams their 2nd straight big loss in a row, especially since the Seahawks don’t have any upcoming distractions, with another easy game on deck after this one. Next week, they go to San Francisco, where they figure to be at least touchdown favorites against a team that the Rams were favored by 2.5 against on the road. Teams tend to do better the week before being big favorites. Since 2012, teams are 31-19 ATS before being road favorites of 7 or more. On top of that, favorites of 6 or more, like the Seahawks are here, are 84-50 ATS since 2012 before being 6+ point favorites again. This looks like a tough welcome back for the Rams. This line is at 7 in some places, but I’d hold out for 6.5. It’s probably still worth a play on 7 though.

Seattle Seahawks 20 Los Angeles Rams 6

Pick against the spread: Seattle -6.5

Confidence: High

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Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 1 NFL Picks, Dolphins, NFL Picks, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (0-0) at Seattle Seahawks (0-0)

Most of my top picks this week are underdogs, but here’s a favorite that seems to be undervalued for some reason. The Seahawks are 10.5 point favorites, which might seem like a lot, but it’s not when you consider how much better Seattle is than Miami. The Dolphins won 6 games last season, but finished 2nd worst in rate of moving the chains differential and 5th worst in point differential, so they were even worse than that 6-10 record suggested. They’ll be better coached this season with Adam Gase coming in, but they also lost a trio of talented players in free agency, losing Olivier Vernon, Lamar Miller, and Derrick Shelby. They’re also without talented center Mike Pouncey because of injury.

The Seahawks, meanwhile, won 10 games last year, but were once again a top-3 team in terms of rate of moving the chains differential. Returning a pretty similar team to the one that played so well down the stretch last season, the Seahawks figure to be one of the best teams in the league again. It’s weird that they’re being underrated by the oddsmakers, but I think this line would be at least 14 in mid-season, especially considering the Seahawks are 51-27 ATS at home since 2007. This one won’t be close and Seattle is the obvious Survivor Pick this week.

Seattle Seahawks 27 Miami Dolphins 10

Pick against the spread: Seattle -10.5

Confidence: Medium

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Seattle Seahawks 2016 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Quarterback

In the past 4 seasons, the Seahawks have gone 26-6 in the final 8 games of the regular season, as opposed to 20-12 in the first 8 games. It makes sense that an organization that is as well run from top to bottom as the Seahawks’ organization is would be able to adapt on the fly better than most teams and figure out how to play at a high level by mid-season. Last year, it was the offense that carried them down the stretch, as they won 6 of their final 8 games to make the playoffs as a wild card, following a 4-4 start. They moved the chains at a 68.24% rate in their first 8 games, but that jumped to 81.18% over the next 8 games and they finished 3rd in rate of moving the chains on the season. Despite “only” being a 10-6 wild card, the Seahawks entered the playoffs 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential and looked like a real contender once again despite the rocky start, but fell a touchdown short in their divisional round playoff loss in Carolina.

As you can probably imagine, a lot of their strong play down the stretch was the result of Russell Wilson, who finished as a top-6 quarterback on Pro Football Focus for the 3rd time in 4 years in the league in 2015. Wilson completed 68.1% of his passes for an average of 8.33 YPA, 34 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions on the season and was an MVP candidate, but he was especially good in those final 8 games, completing 67.5% of his passes for an average of 8.62 YPA, 25 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. The dual threat quarterback also added 553 yards and another 1 touchdown on 103 carries (5.37 YPC) on the season.

As crazy as those numbers might seem, those are pretty par for the course for him. In 4 years in the league, Wilson has completed 64.7% of his passes for an average of 8.05 YPA, 106 touchdowns, and 34 interceptions, while adding 2430 yards and 12 touchdowns on 411 carries (5.91 YPC) on the ground. He’s had a good defense and running game supporting him, but he’s managed to put up those numbers despite inconsistent play from both his receivers and his offensive line throughout his career. A mere 3rd round pick in 2012, Wilson is one of the biggest draft steals of all-time and was kept on a 4-year, 87.6 million dollar extension last off-season ahead of his contract year. He’s one of the top few quarterbacks in the entire NFL.

The one concern is the backup quarterback spot. Wilson hasn’t missed a start in 4 years in the league, but the Seahawks only have undrafted free agent Trevone Boykin behind Wilson right now. Boykin was a talented enough prospect to get drafted and only fell because of off-the-field reasons, but the dropoff from Wilson to Boykin is probably the biggest starter to backup dropoff at quarterback in the NFL. The Seahawks were probably considering bringing back veteran backup Tarvaris Jackson this off-season if Boykin struggled in the off-season program, but that’s no longer an option after Jackson’s recent domestic violence arrest. They may look to add another veteran backup quarterback, but the market is pretty dried up at this point. They’ll obviously be hoping Wilson can stay healthy once again.

Grade: A

Running Backs

Of course, it wasn’t just Russell Wilson who played at a high level down the stretch. Running back Marshawn Lynch uncharacteristically struggled last season, rushing for 417 yards and 3 touchdowns on 111 carries (3.76 YPC), while missing 9 games with injury, including each of the Seahawks’ final 7 games. His injury was actually a bit of a blessing in disguise, as it allowed rookie backup Thomas Rawls to take over as the starting running back mid-season and he rushed for 830 yards and 4 touchdowns on 147 carries, a league leading 5.65 yards per carry average among eligible running backs. Rawls finished the season 12th among running backs on Pro Football Focus, including 4th in pure rushing grade. When he broke his leg week 14 and missed the rest of the season, it was a huge blow to this team’s chances in the playoffs.

Lynch retired ahead of his age 30 season this off-season, so this is Thomas Rawls’ job now. Unfortunately, he missed much of the off-season program rehabbing from that broken leg. He’s fully expected to play week 1, but the long rehab is a concern for a player who is trying to repeat the improbable year he had as an undrafted rookie in 2015 and do it over a 16 game season. He’s certainly a promising young running back who could put up big numbers in a big role, but he’s still not a reliable bet.

When Rawls went down last season, Christine Michael took over as the starting running back. He wasn’t as good as Rawls, which hurt them in the playoffs, but he rushed for 182 rushing yards on 39 carries in those final 3 regular season games (4.67 YPC), after coming over mid-season from the Cowboys. He was originally drafted by the Seahawks in the 2nd round in 2013, but work ethic issues limited him to 52 carries in 2 years in Seattle and ended up getting him sent to Dallas for a late round pick last off-season. In Dallas, he barely played before ending up back in Seattle via waivers and impressing down the stretch. He’ll be Rawls’ primary backup this season. He’s unproven with just 106 career carries, but has a ton of talent and has averaged 4.69 yards per carry in the regular season in his career.

The Seahawks also used a 3rd round pick on Notre Dame running back CJ Prosise, but he’ll work primarily as a passing down back as a rookie. Neither Rawls nor Michaels is a good pass catcher (9 and 4 career catches respectively), while Prosise is an ex-wide receiver who converted full-time to running back just last season. Prosise could catch 40 balls, but would need both Rawls and Michael to get injured to see significant carries as a rookie. Russell Wilson is also usually good for about 100 carries and 600 yards on the ground as well, so this is definitely still a run heavy team. Their running backs are unproven, but promising.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

Along with Wilson and Rawls, wide receiver Doug Baldwin played at a very high level down the stretch, catching 47 passes for 724 yards and 12 touchdowns in the Seahawks’ final 8 games, to finish the season with 78 catches for 1069 yards and 14 touchdowns. It’s his first career 1000 yard season, but, while it was the best season of his career, he’s not really a one-year wonder. In 4 seasons prior to 2015, he had caught 196 passes for 2757 yards and 15 touchdowns, maxing out at 825 yards in 2014. Those numbers are unimpressive, but were kept down by this run heavy offense. Baldwin actually averaged an impressive 1.84 yards per route run over that time period and finished in the top-27 among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus in all 4 seasons.

His big numbers in 2015 are even more impressive when you take into account that they were still a run heavy team last season, attempting just 489 passes. Baldwin caught 75% of his 104 targets and averaged 10.28 yards per target, making Wilson to Baldwin one of the most effective quarterback/wide receiver duos in the NFL. Despite “only” finishing 21st in the NFL in receiving yards, Baldwin finished the year 7th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus. He might not be quite as good again in 2016, but the former undrafted free agent is a legitimate #1 receiver.

As I mentioned, Wilson has dealt with inconsistencies in his receiving corps throughout his career. In fact, Baldwin was the first Seahawks receiver to top 900 yards in a season since 2009. However, right now he has a solid group, probably the best of his career. It’s not just Doug Baldwin, as Jermaine Kearse and Tyler Lockett are solid complementary wide receivers. Kearse made 16 starts last season and was re-signed on a 3-year, 13.5 million dollar deal as a free agent this off-season, but Lockett is reportedly the favorite for the #2 job opposite Baldwin in 2016.

That makes sense. Lockett was the better of the two in 2015, grading out 32nd among wide receivers on 664 snaps as a 3rd round rookie, and has proven he deserves more playing time. Kearse is not a bad player though, with 36 starts in 4 seasons in the league since being drafted in the 7th round in the 2012 NFL Draft and 2 seasons in which he’s graded out above average, including 2015. He’s a solid #3 receiver and the contract the Seahawks signed him to this off-season was not a bad deal. It’s a nice trio of wide receivers.

The way the Seahawks played down the stretch is even more impressive when you take into account that they lost tight end Jimmy Graham for the season a torn patellar tendon week 12, after trading starting center Max Unger and a first round pick to New Orleans for him last off-season. Graham was a weird fit in Seattle because he’s not much of a run blocker and this is a run heavy team, but he still caught 48 passes for 605 yards and 2 touchdowns on 368 pass snaps in 11 games and finished 7th among tight ends in pass catching grade (11th overall).

His injury is still a major concern though, as the list of players who have torn their patellar tendon and returned as good as they were before is basically non-existent. Giants wide receiver Victor Cruz still hasn’t played since tearing his in the middle of the 2014 season. He looked like he’d be ready for the 2015 season, but ended up missing the year with a variety of leg injuries. It would be a shame if the injury ruined his career, because he’s been a top-15 tight end in each of the last 5 seasons, but he’s far from a guarantee to bounce back, already going into his age 30 season. The Seahawks will certainly be hoping he can make close to a full recovery.

In his absence, Luke Willson was the starter, starting 7 games on the season overall. He’s not nearly the pass catcher that Graham is, but he is a solid all-around player who graded out above average on 451 snaps in 2015, after grading out around average in the first 2 years of his career in 2013 and 2014. The 6-5 252 pounder is the Seahawks’ best run blocking tight end, so he should have a role as the #2 tight end even if Graham is healthy. The Seahawks also drafted Ohio State tight end Nick Vannett in the 3rd round in April as insurance. He could see significant rookie year snaps if Graham can’t play. If Graham can play and plays well, this is one of the best receiving corps in the NFL, but it’s a solid group regardless.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

While the Seahawks’ receiving corps is the best it’s ever been in the Russell Wilson era, the Seahawks’ offensive line is the worst it’s ever been in the Russell Wilson era, and it isn’t usually that good. They lost right tackle Breno Giacomini two off-seasons ago, left guard James Carpenter and center Max Unger last off-season, and then left tackle Russell Okung and right guard JR Sweezy this off-season. None of those players were great, but they didn’t really do anything to replace them and have arguably the worst offensive line in football as a result. They’ve always preferred to focus on other parts of the roster and mask their offensive line’s flaws with their system, Russell Wilson’s mobility, and legendary offensive line coach Tom Cable’s coaching, but they might have gone too far this time.

They don’t have a single offensive lineman who is making more than 3 million dollars this season and that’s going to be noticeable on the field. They used a first round pick on an offensive lineman, taking Texas A&M’s Germain Ifedi, but he could struggle as a rookie and was probably overdrafted. Pro Football Focus had a 6th round grade on him going into the draft. That may be an exaggeration, but most expected him to be a 2nd or 3rd round pick and he’s very raw in pass protection. He’s also moving positions, as he’ll play right guard, after spending last season at left tackle at Texas A&M. At left guard, fellow rookie Rees Odhiambo will compete with last year’s 4th round pick, Mark Glowinski, for the starting job. Glowinski played just 73 snaps as a rookie.

Ex-right tackle Garry Gilliam will move over to the left side with Okung gone, after struggling mightily as a 16-game starter at right tackle in 2015. The 2014 undrafted free agent was Pro Football Focus’ 63rd ranked offensive tackle out of 77 eligible in the first significant action in his career and is probably the worst starting left tackle in football. The Seahawks like his upside, but I’m skeptical. Justin Britt is the other 16-game starter who returns for the Seahawks, going into his 3rd year in the league with 32 starts already under his belt.

However, he too struggled mightily in 2015, finishing 75th among 81 eligible guards on Pro Football Focus. He was even worse last season than he was as a 2nd round rookie in 2014, when he finished 74th out of 84 eligible offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus as a 16-game starter at right tackle. He’s on his 3rd position in as many years in the league, as he’ll start at center this season. He’s no guarantee to be any better there, especially considering he didn’t even play the position at the collegiate level. Moving him inside seems like a desperation move.

Free agent acquisition J’Marcus Webb figures to start at right tackle, coming over from Oakland on a 2-year, 5.75 million dollar deal. He’s made 71 starts in 6 seasons in the league, including all 16 last season, but he has never once graded out above average. He wasn’t awful last season, playing both right tackle and right guard, but he’s a mediocre starter at best. Fellow free agent acquisition Bradley Sowell is reportedly also in the mix for a starting job, but that’s really reaching deep. Sowell hasn’t made a start since 2013, when he made 12 starts and was Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked offensive tackle. It’s also possible 2015 4th round pick Terry Poole sees snaps in his 2nd year in the league in 2016, after spending his entire rookie year on the bench. It’s a weak offensive line that figures to make life difficult for the rest of this offense.

Grade: F

Defensive Line

Of course, the defense was also great yet again in 2015, finishing 6th in rate of moving the chains allowed. They were led by the usual suspects, including defensive end Michael Bennett, who has become one of the best in the league at his position. He’s been a top-7 4-3 defensive end on Pro Football Focus in each of the past 5 seasons and finished last season 3rd at the position. He’s going into his age 31 season, so his age is starting to become a concern, but he should have another couple strong seasons left in the tank at least. The big 6-4 274 pounder can line up anywhere on the defensive line and often rushes the passer from the interior in sub packages.

Because of that, there are still plenty of snaps for Cliff Avril and Frank Clark to both rush the passer off the edge in sub packages. Clark flashed on 364 snaps as a 2nd round rookie in 2015, grading out above average, but Avril is expected to keep the starting job, after finishing last season 7th among 4-3 defensive ends as a 16-game starter. An 8-year NFL veteran, Avril has finished in the top-13 among 4-3 defensive ends in 3 straight seasons and has graded out above average as a pass rusher in 7 of 8 seasons in the league, but last season was the first year the undersized 6-3 252 pounder graded out above average against the run as well. His age is also becoming a concern, as he goes into his age 30 season, but he should be effective rushing the passer off the edge again in 2016, at the very least.

Clark, meanwhile, will play a significant role as the 3rd defensive end, with Bennett often moving inside. Clark essentially takes over for the departed Bruce Irvin as the nickel rusher. Clark also could replace Irvin at outside linebacker in base packages. Irvin played well in a hybrid outside linebacker/defensive end role last season and Clark, after reportedly losing 17 pounds and slimming down to 6-3 260 this off-season, could play outside linebacker in base packages as well. He’d move to defensive end in sub packages when a 5th defensive back comes in and move Bennett inside. Clark figures to have a significant role in his 2nd year in the league regardless and looked up to the task as a rookie.

In base packages, the Seahawks will start veteran Ahtyba Rubin and rookie Jarran Reed inside at defensive tackle. Rubin was re-signed on a 3-year, 12 million dollar deal this off-season, while Reed will replaced departed veteran free agent Brandon Mebane, who signed with the Chargers this off-season. He’s only a two-down player at this point, but he was arguably the best run stopper in the draft and was Pro Football Focus’ 20th ranked prospect, so he was a good value in the middle of the 2nd.

Rubin, meanwhile, is not a terrible player, but has graded out below average in every season since 2009 and there’s no reason to expect that to change in his age 30 season in 2016. Tony McDaniel is also in the mix for snaps, but the 10-year NFL veteran has only twice finished above average on Pro Football Focus. He finished 101st out of 123 eligible interior defensive linemen last season with the Buccaneers and is unlikely to get better, going into his age 31 season in 2016. Despite depth problems at defensive tackle, it’s a deep, talented defensive line once again.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

As mentioned, defensive end Frank Clark is a candidate for the two-down linebacker job, replacing Bruce Irvin completely. The Seahawks other option is starting Michael Morgan and keeping Clark 100% at defensive end as a sub package edge rusher, which they certainly could do. Morgan is a career special teamer with just 3 starts in 5 seasons in the league though, since going undrafted in 2011. Fortunately, it’s just a two down position, so the winner of that battle won’t have too tough of a job.

KJ Wright and Bobby Wagner remain as the every down linebackers, at outside linebacker and inside linebacker respectively. They’re as good as any duo in the NFL. Wright has started 72 of 76 games in 5 seasons in the league, despite falling to the 4th round in 2011, and has been a top-17 4-3 outside linebacker in each of his first 5 seasons in the league, with his best seasons coming in 2014 (6th) and 2015 (4th). Another strong season seems likely for him, only going into his age 27 season.

Wagner, meanwhile, is actually coming off of a down year, finishing “just” 18th among middle linebackers, but he was a top-12 middle linebacker in each of his first 3 seasons in the league from 2012-2014 and was 5th as recently as 2014. He’s an obvious bounce back candidate, going into his age 26 season and his 5th year in the league. Since the Seahawks drafted him in the 2nd round in 2012, he’s started 55 of 64 games over those 4 seasons. He and Wright are a great pair.

Grade: A-

Secondary

The Seahawks have an incredible secondary as well, led by cornerback Richard Sherman, who is probably the best cornerback in the NFL. He “only” finished 3rd among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus in 2015, but is the only cornerback in the NFL to finish in the top-5 at the position in 4 straight seasons. He’s also made all 64 starts over those 4 seasons and has never missed a game in 5 seasons in the league, since the Seahawks stole him in the 5th round of the 2011 NFL Draft.

There are some that would argue that safety Earl Thomas is more important to this defense. I wouldn’t make that argument, but he’s certainly one of the best safeties in the NFL. He’s made all 96 starts in 6 years in the league since the Seahawks drafted him in the first round in 2010, and he’s played well all along. He has graded out above average in all 6 seasons in the league and has finished in the top-10 in 4 of 6 seasons, including a career best 3rd in 2015. He and Sherman are both young, going into their age 27 and 28 season respectively, both signed through 2018, and should be a dominant duo for the foreseeable future.

On the other hand, Kam Chancellor, the other starting safety, is coming off of a down year. He didn’t play horribly, but he finished 22nd among safeties, his lowest rank in 5 seasons as a starter. It’s a bit of a self-inflicted wound, as Chancellor foolishly tried to hold out for an extension with 3 years remaining on his current contract. Chancellor missed the entire off-season program and the first 2 games of the season, both close losses for the Seahawks, losing two game checks in the process. When he finally gave it up, it took him a little bit to get back into the flow of things and he dealt with injury issues down the stretch that limited him to a career low 11 games. He’s been present this off-season and, now healthy, is an obvious bounce back candidate. He was a top-20 safety in every season from 2011-2014, maxing out at 5th in 2012.

The Seahawks really lack cornerback depth behind Sherman though and don’t have a good option to start across from him. Cary Williams began the season as the starter opposite Sherman, but got cut by mid-season, leaving 2012 undrafted free agent DeShawn Shead to start down the stretch and into the playoffs. Shead struggled though, finishing 93rd out of 111 eligible cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus on 616 snaps in the first significant action of his career. He still figures to open the season as the starter, despite his 2015 struggles.

Nickel cornerback Jeremy Lane is the unknown of the group. He’s certainly better than both Shead and Browner when he’s healthy, but has been limited to just 13 games over the past 2 seasons due to injury and has played in just 41 of a possible 64 games in his career. He’s also only played 830 regular season snaps in his career, since being drafted in the 6th round in 2012, and has just 6 starts over that time period. He’s graded out above average in all 4 seasons he’s been in the league, but injuries and inexperience are major concerns for him.

The Seahawks don’t seem to share those concerns, giving him a 4-year, 23 million dollar deal to keep him off the open market this off-season, a very risky deal that could pay off if he stays healthy and continues to play at a high level over a larger number of snaps. Those are both far from guarantees though. He’ll begin the season as the slot cornerback, but it wouldn’t be a shock if they gave him a shot as a starter if Shead continues to struggle, considering they essentially paid starter’s money to keep him. The Legion of Boom is not without flaws, but is still one of the best secondaries in the NFL.

Grade: A

Conclusion

The Seahawks have noticeable problems on the offensive line, but have the most skill position talent around Russell Wilson that they’ve ever had, with Thomas Rawls, Doug Baldwin, Tyler Lockett, Jermaine Kearse, and possible Jimmy Graham. Wilson is one of the best quarterbacks in the league and played probably the best football of his young career down the stretch last season. The offensive line keep them from their potential, but they have a great defense as well and once again have one of the most talented rosters in the league. In a top heavy NFC, they’re one of the top few teams and should have no problem making the playoffs for the 5th straight season.

Prediction: 11-5 2nd in NFC West

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Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers: 2015 NFC Divisional Pick

stevenlourie 2015 Divisional Round NFL Picks, 2015 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Panthers, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (11-6) at Carolina Panthers (15-1)

This is a matchup of two absolute powerhouses, as Carolina and Seattle rank 2nd and 3rd respectively in rate of moving the chains differential. Seattle gets running back Marshawn Lynch back from a 7 game absence, while Carolina gets running back Jonathan Stewart back from a 3 game absence, safety Kurt Coleman back from a 1 game absence, and wide receiver Ted Ginn back from a 1 game absence, though cornerback Charles Tillman is out for the season. I think Carolina is the better team, so I like being able to take them as mere 2.5 point favorites at home, given that about 1 in 6 games are decided by a field goal or less, but I’d need to be getting points to bet any money against Seattle, especially since home teams in the divisional round are just 8-16 ATS since 2001 against a team that is coming off of a road win in the wild card round.

Carolina Panthers 16 Seattle Seahawks 13

Pick against the spread: Carolina -2.5

Confidence: Low

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Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings: 2015 NFC Wild Card Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 NFL Wild Card Picks, NFL Picks, Seahawks, Uncategorized, Vikings

Seattle Seahawks (10-6) at Minnesota Vikings (11-5)

The Seahawks smoked the Vikings in Minnesota back in week 13, winning 38-7. However, the trio of linebacker Anthony Barr, safety Harrison Smith, and defensive tackle Linval Joseph, arguably the Vikings’ 3 best defensive players, played a combined 19 snaps in that one, thanks to injury. Joseph was out completely, while Barr and Smith both got knocked out with injuries early, after 8 snaps and 11 snaps respectively. The Vikings are, unsurprisingly, a much better team when those 3 are healthy. In fact, in the 13 games where at least 2 of the 3 have been healthy, the Vikings allow their opponents to move the chains at a mere 68.17% rate, as opposed to 79.38% in their other 3 games, which includes their embarrassing home blowout loss to these Seahawks. They’re better than their 12th place finish in rate of moving the chains differential suggests.

The Seahawks are still the better team, ranking 3rd in that metric, but they’re the ones that are banged up this time around. Running back Thomas Rawls, a key part of the Seahawks’ earlier win in Minnesota, will miss his 4th straight game this week. He rushed for 101 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries the last time these two met. Meanwhile, running back Marshawn Lynch, who was expected to return from a 7 game absence with a sports hernia this week, did not travel with the team, leaving them once again thin at running back.

Besides, teams are 29-14 ATS since 1989 in the playoffs in a same season, same site, non-divisional rematch against a team that beat them previously, so the Vikings will likely keep this game much more competitive than the last one, at the very least. Despite all of this, the public is all over the Seahawks as 5 point road favorites, as they’re seemingly way too caught up in what happened between these two teams week 13. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense, as they always lose money in the long run, and it does here. This line is way too high at 5, given that about 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer. Worst case scenario, I like the odds of a backdoor cover.

Seattle Seahawks 17 Minnesota Vikings 16

Pick against the spread: Minnesota +5

Confidence: Medium

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Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 17 NFL Picks, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (9-6) at Arizona Cardinals (13-2)

I’ve thought for a while that the Cardinals were the most underrated team in the NFL. I’ve taken them in every week since week 2. Despite the fact that the Panthers didn’t lose their first game of the season until last week, I think the Cardinals have been the best team in the league for most of the year. The Cardinals rank first in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, despite having a couple losses. In those 2 losses, they won the first down battle by a combined 20 first downs and only lost because they had a -3 turnover margin in both games. Turnover margins are incredibly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. On average, teams that have a -3 turnover margin in a game have a +0.1 turnover margin the following game. That’s why I don’t really like to use turnover margin as evidence to support an evaluation of a team.

Comparing them with the Panthers, they have a point differential of +206, while the Panthers are at +162, despite the fact that they have a turnover margin of +12, while the Panthers are at +19. The Cardinals are 4-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less, but the Panthers are 6-1, accounting for nearly half of their wins, and the Cardinals rank 17th in rate of strength of schedule, as opposed to 28th for Carolina.

However, it appears the Cardinals are underrated no more, in the wake of their 38-8 win over the Packers last week, as this line has shifted from 2.5 in favor of the Seahawks to 6.5 in favor of the Cardinals, a massive 9 point shift. I actually think the line is pretty appropriate, but we’ve lost all value with the Cardinals. In fact, I’m going the other way. The Cardinals rank #1 in rate of moving the chains differential, but the Seahawks still come in 4th, despite a huge upset home loss to the St. Louis Rams last week. The Seahawks would have had a much easier time winning that game if they didn’t lose the turnover battle by 3 (including a fumble recovered for a touchdown) and I’ve already talked about how inconsistent turnover margins are.

Despite that loss, the Seahawks have still won 7 of 9 since a 2-4 start. They are 26-7 ATS in the second half of the regular season in the Pete Carroll era (since 2011), including 5-2 ATS this season. Well run teams like the Seahawks always seem to get it together down the stretch. Losing running back Marshawn Lynch, tight end Jimmy Graham, and running back Thomas Rawls with injuries has made this team more one-dimensional, but Russell Wilson has been playing arguably the best football of his career.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals are missing cornerback Tyrann Mathieu for the season with a torn ACL and he was playing like a Defensive Player of the Year candidate before going down. They obviously didn’t seem to miss him last week against the Packers, but it’s possible they just had a really spirited performance to compensate for Mathieu, something that’s going to be tough to do every single week. They’ll definitely miss him. The Seahawks are also in a great spot as divisional road underdogs are 57-31 ATS in a same season regular season rematch against a team they previously lost to as divisional home favorites, since 2002. Revenge is far from uncommon in divisional matchups similar to this one and the Cardinals beat the Seahawks as underdogs in Seattle earlier this year. I can’t put money on the Seahawks, but I’m going with them.

Arizona Cardinals 24 Seattle Seahawks 20

Pick against the spread: Seattle +6.5

Confidence: Low

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St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks: 2015 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 16 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Rams, Seahawks, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (6-8) at Seattle Seahawks (9-5)

The Seahawks’ home dominance is well documented. Since 2007, they are 55-23 at home (outscoring opponents by an average of 7.88 points per game), as opposed to 31-45 on the road (getting outscored by an average of 1.72 points per game). However, their home dominance might be too well documented, to the point where it gets priced into the line. After going 15-5 ATS in their first 20 home games in the Russell Wilson era (since 2012), the Seahawks are just 9-7 ATS at home since.

I don’t think that’s the case here though, as the Seahawks are “only” favored by 13 points, when I think they could be favored by more, given how well they play at home and that the Rams rank 30th in rate of moving the chains differential. The Seahawks, meanwhile, rank 4th in rate of moving the chains differential and are on an absolute tear in recent weeks, as is typically the case with this team in the 2nd half of the regular season. They are 26-6 ATS in the last 8 games of the regular season since 2011, the start of the Pete Carroll era.

All of this being said, I can’t be confident in the Seahawks for two reasons. The first is how banged up they are. They lost talented rookie running back Thomas Rawls for the season two weeks ago and starting running back Marshawn Lynch is not ready to return yet. On top of that, offensive tackle Russell Okung, safety Kam Chancellor, and wide receiver Doug Baldwin are all gametime decisions and, with the team pretty much locked into the #5 seed and an easy opponent, the Seahawks may opt to hold them out or limit their playing time, to avoid long-term injuries with the playoffs around the corner.

The second is that the Seahawks are in a bad spot. While this is essentially the Rams’ Super Bowl, the Seahawks have a much more important game on deck, a trip to Arizona that is going to be a big barometer for them as they head into the post-season. The Rams, meanwhile, go to San Francisco, where they are expected to be 2.5 point road favorites against the awful 49ers, according to the early line. Double digit underdogs are 55-32 ATS since 2002 before being favorites and, on the other side, double digit favorites are 54-72 ATS before being underdogs, over that same time period. Combining the two, double digit favorites are 11-29 ATS since 1989 before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites. The Seahawks are actually 2.5 point favorites in Arizona on the early line for whatever reason, but that could change between now and then and the logic holds either way. Seattle is still my pick, but it’s a no confidence pick.

Seattle Seahawks 20 St. Louis Rams 6

Pick against the spread: Seattle -13

Confidence: None

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Cleveland Browns at Seattle Seahawks: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 15 NFL Picks, Browns, NFL Picks, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (3-10) at Seattle Seahawks (8-5)

The Seahawks’ home dominance is well documented. Since 2007, they are 54-23 at home (outscoring opponents by an average of 7.77 points per game), as opposed to 31-45 on the road (getting outscored by an average of 1.72 points per game). However, their home dominance might be too well documented, to the point where it gets priced into the line. After going 15-5 ATS in their first 20 home games in the Russell Wilson era (since 2012), the Seahawks are just 8-7 ATS at home since.

This line is really high at 15, but I don’t think it’s too high. If anything, it might be too low, so we’re not really paying too much of a premium for their homefield advantage this time. The Seahawks rank 5th in rate of moving the chains differential and are great at home, while the Browns rank 28th in that metric. The Seahawks are also hot right now, winners of 6 of their last 7 games, including 4 straight, after a 4-5 start in which they lost to Green Bay, Carolina, St. Louis, Cincinnati, and Arizona, all by 10 or fewer points.

The Seahawks are so well run that they always seem to get hot right around this time. They are 25-6 ATS in the last 8 games of the regular season since 2011, the start of the Pete Carroll era. Losing running back Thomas Rawls for the season last week hurts, but the Browns also lost one of their top offensive linemen, left guard Joel Bitonio, for the season a few weeks back, which also hurts. Rookie Cameron Erving has been horrible in his absence.

The Seahawks are also in a great spot. They host the Rams next week, against whom they’re favored by 14 points in the early line, which definitely is not an upcoming distraction. Favorites of 6+ are 81-43 ATS before being favored by 6+ points again, since 2012, as superior teams tend to take care of business and win big when they don’t have an upcoming distraction. On the flip side, the Browns have to go to Kansas City, where the early line has them as 11.5 point underdogs. As a result, it might be tough for them to be focused enough to keep it close against a drastically superior team, at home, that doesn’t have an upcoming distraction.

Flipping that aforementioned trend, teams are 42-67 ATS as 6+ point underdogs before being 6+ point underdogs again, since 2012. Combining the two, favorites of 6+ are 26-5 ATS since 2012 before being favorites of 6+ again, when their opponent will next be 6+ point underdogs again. Going even further, favorites of 10+ are 21-7 ATS since 1989 before being favorites of 10+ again, when their opponent will next be 10+ point underdogs again. This line is high, but I have no problem laying all these points. This one won’t be close.

Seattle Seahawks 30 Cleveland Browns 6

Pick against the spread: Seattle -15

Confidence: High

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Seattle Seahawks at Baltimore Ravens: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 14 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Ravens, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (7-5) at Baltimore Ravens (4-8)

The Seahawks are just 7-5, but they’ve lost to tough opponents like the Packers, Bengals, Cardinals, and Panthers (all 4 losses were within 10 points) and they’ve won 5 of their last 6. The Seahawks are relatively healthy right now. They’re missing defensive tackle Jordan Hill and running back Marshawn Lynch, but Hill isn’t that important and rookie phenom Thomas Rawls (5.57 YPC) has run much better than Lynch this season (3.76 YPC), as Lynch has been banged up all year. They once again seem to have hit their stride late in the season, as they have in every year of the Pete Carroll era (since 2011). They are 24-6 ATS in the last 8 games of the regular season over that time period and they’re in a good spot to cover again this week.

While the Seahawks host the Browns next week, against whom they’ll be favored by 13.5 points, according to the early line, the Ravens host the Chiefs, against whom they’ll be underdogs of 5 points. Road favorites are 90-65 ATS before being favored again when their opponent will next be underdogs, since 2012. Going even further into it, favorites of 6+ (like the Seahawks this week) before being favorites of 6+ again (like the Seahawks next week) are 80-42 ATS since 2012, as superior teams tend to take care of business without an upcoming distractions. On the Ravens’ side, teams are 45-84 ATS before being home favorites of 4+and 23-55 ATS before being home favorites of 6+, since 2012. On top of this, road favorites off of a road win (like the Seahawks) are 45-32 ATS since 2008, as long as they are in their 2nd of two road games.

All of that being said, this line is way too high at 12. That’s a major shift from last week, when the Seahawks were favored by just 4.5 on the early line. I love fading significant line movements whenever they make sense as they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. The line movement does make some sense. The Seahawks are coming off of a huge victory (38-7 in Minnesota). and the Ravens are pretty banged up, missing quarterback Matt Schaub, left tackle Eugene Monroe, and tight end Crockett Gillmore (in addition to all of the major players they have on injured reserve like quarterback Joe Flacco, running back Justin Forsett, wide receiver Breshad Perriman, wide receiver Steve Smith, tight end Dennis Pitta, and outside linebacker Terrell Suggs).

Jimmy Clausen will start for the Ravens, after being signed mid-season from the Bears. He started for the Bears in Seattle earlier this year, in Jay Cutler’s absence, and the Bears picked up just 7 first downs in that one, not a surprise, considering Clausen is one of the worst quarterbacks in the league. He doesn’t have much talent around him and I don’t expect the Ravens to move the ball easily, but the Ravens’ defense has played well this season, especially of late. They rank 12th in rate of moving the chains allowed, despite the injury to Suggs and off-season losses of Haloti Ngata and Pernell McPhee. That’s a big part of the reason why the Ravens haven’t lost by more than 8 all season, a trend I could definitely see them continuing this week. The Seahawks rank 6th in rate of moving the chains differential, but the Ravens rank 22nd and, even as banged up as they are, they still should be the right side when getting this many points. I just can’t bring myself to put money on it.

Seattle Seahawks 16 Baltimore Ravens 6

Pick against the spread: Baltimore +12

Confidence: Low