Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 15 NFL Picks, Giants, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (11-2) at New York Giants (5-8)

At first glance, this line is exactly where it should be. The Seahawks move the chains at a 74.30% rate, as opposed to 68.68% for their opponents, a differential of 5.62% that ranks 5th in the NFL. The Giants, meanwhile, move the chains at a 67.26% rate, as opposed to 71.70% for their opponents, a differential of -4.44% that ranks 27th in the NFL. Given that, this line should be around 7, which is exactly where it is.

However, that doesn’t take into account that the Seahawks aren’t quite the same team away from home. They aren’t a bad team away from home, but their 5th place rank in rate of moving the chains differential takes into account games in which they have an amazing home field advantage, which they don’t here.  They’ve had some impressive games on the road. They’ve won in Carolina, blew out the Falcons, and came away with an impressive double digit victory from Arizona. However, they’ve also played close games with Houston, St. Louis, and lost in Indianapolis and San Francisco.

They have just two wins on the road by more than a touchdown, which is what it would take to cover this spread. Dating back to last season, they have just three road wins by more than a touchdown in 15 tries. The Seahawks are in a good spot though with no distractions with a home game against Arizona up next. Since 1989, teams are 84-54 ATS as road favorites of 5 or more before being home favorites of 10 or more, which is why I’m taking the Seahawks, but I’m not confident at all.

Seattle Seahawks 23 New York Giants 13

Pick against spread: Seattle -7

Confidence: None

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Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, 49ers, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (11-1) at San Francisco 49ers (8-4)

The Seahawks blew the Saints last week, winning 34-7 on Monday Night Football. Ordinarily, teams carry over that momentum off of a Monday night blowout into their next game, going 31-13 ATS since 2002 off of a win of 21 or more. However, I don’t think the Seahawks were as good as they looked last week. I’m not saying they’re bad at all. In fact, they might be the best team in the NFL. But they’re not 27 point win over the Saints good. Away from their incredible home field advantage, they could be exposed here in their biggest road test of the season.

They ordinarily don’t do well as road underdogs, going 14-24 ATS as road underdogs since 2007, including 8-17 ATS after a home game (teams generally cover at a high rate in their 2nd straight road game because they are adjusted to being away from home). They’ve yet to be road underdogs yet this season. In fact, they’ve been road underdogs just once over the past 2 seasons, last year in San Francisco. They covered that game as 7.5 point underdogs because the 49ers declined a safety that would have been it a 9 point game, in favor of just running out the clock.

We also didn’t know how good the Seahawks were at the time. We do now, which is why this line is at 2.5 points, so we’re not getting any line value. The 49ers are a huge test for the Seahawks on the road. This game also means a lot more for the 49ers than the Seahawks. I’m not saying the Seahawks will completely sleepwalk through this game, but they are essentially locked into the #1 seed, unless they completely implode. The 49ers, meanwhile, need every win they can get to stay in the playoff picture and this is also a big revenge game for the 49ers. The 49ers are 15-7 ATS against teams that beat them in their last matchup, since Jim Harbaugh took over in 2011.

I’m not that confident, however. The 49ers have had a lot of issues with top level teams this season. Against teams that currently have a .500 or worse record this season, Colin Kaepernick has completed 105 of 166 for 1565 yards, 11 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while rushing for 210 yards and 3 touchdowns on 42 carries in 6 games. They’ve won all 6 of those games by an average of 19.3 points per game. In their other 6 games, Kaepernick has completed 70 of 137 for 747 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, while rushing for 166 yards and no touchdowns on 27 carries. They are 2-4 in those 6 games. They should still be the right side, but I’m not that confident.

San Francisco 49ers 20 Seattle Seahawks 13

Pick against spread: San Francisco -2.5

Confidence: Low

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New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 13 NFL Picks, Saints, Seahawks, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (9-2) at Seattle Seahawks (10-1)

There’s a pretty powerful trend that says when two teams who are about to undergo a scheduling dynamic change (from dog to favorite or favorite to dog) play each other, the dog covers more often than not. The favorite is distracted by their upcoming game as underdogs, while the underdog has no distractions coming up considering they will be favorites next. This game does fit that trend. The Seahawks are home favorites here and will be road underdogs in San Francisco next week, while the Saints will be home favorites for the Panthers. Teams are 52-86 ATS as home favorites before being road underdogs when their opponent will next be home favorites.

However, as is the case with all trends, you can’t just follow it blindly. Next week’s game in San Francisco is going to be a big deal, but I don’t think the Seahawks are going to overlook a game that could easily be NFC Championship part 1 the way Denver/New England could have been AFC Championship part 1 last week. The Seahawks already have a 3 game lead on the division, but they’re only up a game over the Saints for the #1 seed and home field advantage throughout the NFC. Likewise, the Saints could be equally distracted with the Carolina game next week that could be for the NFC South championship. I don’t think one team is in a better spot than the other in terms of upcoming distractions, despite what the trend says.

There are several reasons why this could easily be NFC Championship part 1. Of course, these are currently the two best teams in the NFC record wise, but both teams are also dominant at home. That means, if they get a top-2 seed and a first round bye, they are basically in the NFC Championship game, with a bye and a home game before that. Once there, home field advantage is going to be incredibly important because of how good these two teams are at home. In fact, if we assume the winner of this game gets the #1 seed, the winner of this game probably has a better chance than not of going all the way to the Super Bowl. This might be even bigger than the NFC Championship game because it could decide the NFC Championship game.

How good is Seattle at home? Well, since 2007, they are 37-17 ATS at home, including 21-9 ATS as home favorites. They have been especially good over the past two years, as they’ve broken out as an elite team, going 10-3 ATS since the start of the 2012 season. They’ve won all 13 games at home over the past 2 seasons by an average of 17.9 points per game. The Saints are equally dominant at home, but they aren’t at home here.

Drew Brees’ quarterback rating on the road since 2008 is about 12 points lower and this year, they’ve lost in New York to the Jets and in New England. They also barely won in Tampa Bay and Atlanta. Only their 8 point win in Chicago has been impressive for the Saints on the road this season and even that wasn’t that impressive. The Saints couldn’t beat the Seahawks in Seattle a few years ago in the playoffs and that was when they were a significantly better team than the Seahawks. That’s not the case here at all so the Saints could really be in trouble.

I’m not going against the Seahawks at home here against a Saints team that displays a similar home/road disparity to them. If this was in New Orleans, I would take the Saints, but it isn’t. I’m 11-0 against the spread on Saints games this year, so I feel like I have a very good read on them. Also helping the Seahawks is the fact that they are coming off a bye. They’ve had an extra week to prepare for this. Great teams usually make great use of that extra week. Teams with a winning percentage of 90% or better are 25-11 ATS as home off of a bye since 1989. I’m pretty confident the Seahawks cover here.

Seattle Seahawks 31 New Orleans Saints 20

Pick against spread: Seattle -6

Confidence: Medium

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Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#2)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Last week: 2 (+0)

Record: 9-1

The Seahawks got themselves back on track after two close calls against the Buccaneers and Rams with a blowout victory in Atlanta. They get Percy Harvin back ahead of the bye this week for their game against the Vikings, which should be another blowout win, which would get them to 10-1 going into the bye. After the bye, they play New Orleans and San Francisco in back-to-back weeks in games that could be very important for seeding purposes.

Week 10 Studs

RB Marshawn Lynch

WR Golden Tate

WR Doug Baldwin

LOLB KJ Wright

DT Brandon Mebane

DT Tony McDaniel

CB Walter Thurmond

Week 10 Duds

LT Paul McQuistan

LG James Carpenter

DT Clinton McDonald

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Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 11 NFL Picks, Seahawks, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (2-7) at Seattle Seahawks (9-1)

In his last two games, Christian Ponder has completed 42 of 58 for 410 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. However, you have to remember he was facing two defenses in Dallas and Washington that are among the worst in the NFL and he was facing the latter on a short week when they were coming off of an overtime game (teams are 3-17 ATS on Thursday Night after an overtime game). Washington’s terrible “stop” unit made even Matt Cassel look passable when he game on in relief of an injured Christian Ponder. Ponder is expected to be fine for this game, but the schedule gets much tougher as they go to Seattle, arguably the toughest place in the NFL to play.

The Seahawks have been incredible at home since 2007, to the point where you can almost just blindly bet them at home. They are 36-17 ATS at home over that time frame, including 20-9 ATS as home favorites, and 10-3 ATS as home favorites of 7 or more. They have been especially good over the past two years, as they’ve broken out as an elite team, going 9-3 ATS since the start of the 2012 season. They’ve won all 12 games at home over the past 2 seasons by an average of 17.7 points per game. The Vikings are a below average team that could get completely destroyed.

The Buccaneers did almost pull the massive upset in Seattle two weeks ago, but I think that was a fluke, not a new trend. Seahawks got back on track in Atlanta last week and now get Percy Harvin back. He might not play a full set of snaps, but his presence certainly won’t hurt. Also, Minnesota is worse than Tampa Bay, thanks largely to a terrible stop unit that is allowing opponents to move the chains at an 80% rate, as opposed to 72% for their offense. That differential ranks 31st in the NFL. The Seahawks rank 6th, moving the chains at a 78% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents. That suggests this line should be at about 11.5, before you even get into the Seahawks home dominance. Even at 12.5, this line is too low.

The Seahawks are also distraction free with a bye coming up. Home favorites of 7 or more are 40-14 ATS before a bye since 2002. It makes perfect sense. Dominant teams are able to dominate when they know they have a week off coming up. The Vikings, meanwhile, could be distracted as they have to head to Green Bay next week, a big rivalry game. It might not be a huge distraction, but enough to prevent them from keeping it close with a vastly superior opponent. Teams are 47-74 ATS as non-divisional road dogs before being divisional road-dogs. It’s a strong play and a projected blowout victory for the Seahawks.

Seattle Seahawks 31 Minnesota Vikings 10

Pick against spread: Seattle -12.5

Confidence: High

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Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#2)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Last week: 1 (-1)

Record: 8-1

The Seahawks move down because I don’t think the Broncos would beat the Rams and the Buccaneers by just a combined 8 points. The Broncos were on a bye so I don’t have a chance to talk about why they are better than the Seahawks so I’ll just do it here. The Broncos rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, behind only Carolina of all teams, while the Seahawks rank 8th. In DVOA, Denver is 1st, while Seattle is 2nd (Carolina is 3rd). In point differential, Denver is 1st, while Seattle is 4th. And Denver hasn’t been reliant on winning the turnover battle, as they are only recovering 37% of fumbles.

Week 9 Studs

QB Russell Wilson

C Max Unger

LE Michael Bennett

DT Tony McDaniel

Week 9 Duds

RG JR Sweezy

LE Red Bryant

FS Earl Thomas

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Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Picks, Falcons, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (7-1) at Atlanta Falcons (2-6)

I wish I had gotten this line when it was at Atlanta +6 or higher. Despite all of the action being on Seattle, the line is dropping significantly from +6.5 at some places to now +5 at some places. It’s obvious that this is a trap line and the sharps are all over the underdogs. It’s not hard to see why. The Seahawks have not been playing well of late, thanks largely to injuries to guys like Russell Okung and Bobby Wagner. Okung remains out and, while Wagner returned a couple of weeks ago, but he hasn’t been nearly the same player thanks to a high ankle sprain, something that could linger. Also out is Sidney Rice, who tore his ACL and Percy Harvin has yet to return to replace him. He’s not expected back this week.

The Seahawks have won each of their last 2 games, but they won by a combined 8 points against the Rams and Buccaneers, among two of the worst teams in the NFL. Particularly bad was their mere 3 point home win over the Buccaneers in overtime. The Buccaneers are winless and the Seahawks are supposed to be a dominant home team. The Seahawks are in a bad spot here as road favorites off of back to back wins as favorites in which they failed to cover. Teams are 13-23 ATS in that spot since 1989. They’re also in a bad spot coming off of last week’s big overtime win. Teams are 22-41 ATS since 1989 as favorites off of an overtime home win.

Because of their recent struggles, the Seahawks aren’t really as good as their record. They are 4-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less. They are 8th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 76% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents. The Falcons, meanwhile, might be better than their record, meanwhile. Remember, they are just 1-4 in games decided by a touchdown or less. They are moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 80% for their opponents, a differential that is 26th in the NFL. They’re also getting healthier as this is Steven Jackson’s 3rd game back and Roddy White returns. Even with the reverse line movement, we are still getting a little bit of line value with the Falcons before we even get into trends.

Two spots the Falcons have always been good in are at home and off of a loss, at least in the Matt Ryan era. They are 35-9 straight up at home under Matt Ryan in 2008, including 26-17 ATS. Off of a loss, Matt Ryan is 19-7 ATS, including 7-1 ATS as an underdog. They’ve struggled a bit more than usual in those situations this year, but it’s still worth noting. Meanwhile, the Falcons have no distractions that would prevent them from possibly pulling an upset here, with a trip to Tampa Bay next on the schedule. Teams are 35-11 ATS as non-divisional home underdogs before being divisional road favorites since 1989. I wish this line was still above the key number of 6 so it could be a significant play, but the Falcons should be the right side.

Seattle Seahawks 19 Atlanta Falcons 17

Pick against spread: Atlanta +5.5

Confidence: Low

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 9 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-7) at Seattle Seahawks (7-1)

The Seahawks came up kind of flat in St. Louis last week as a huge favorites against an inferior opponent, winning only by the score of 14-9. However, they get another opportunity to blow out an inferior opponent and cover a huge spread here this week and the difference is they are at home. They’ve been incredible at home since 2007, to the point where you can almost just blindly bet them at home. They are 36-16 ATS at home over that time frame, including 20-8 ATS as home favorites, and 10-2 ATS as home favorites of 7 or more. They have been especially good over the past two years, as they’ve broken out as an elite team, going 8-3 ATS since the start of the 2012 season.

They’re in another good spot as non-divisional home favorites are 68-46 ATS since 2008 before being road favorites. They are in Atlanta next week, as they have no serious distraction keeping them from blowing out the Buccaneers here. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are in a bad spot as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home underdogs, a spot teams are 80-113 ATS in since 2002. They’re also a very good chance they’ve just quit on their Head Coach Greg Schiano at 0-7 and won’t be able to do anything about Seattle just running up the score on them, as they are one to do. The Seahawks should be able to cover this large line.

Seattle Seahawks 31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

Pick against spread: Seattle -16

Confidence: Medium

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