Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#10)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Seahawks

Last week: 10 (+4)

Record: 5-4

If history is any indication, the Seahawks are more likely to make it than some other borderline playoff teams in the NFC right now. Every year, 5 new playoff teams make the playoffs that didn’t make it the year before, dating back 17 straight years. I use this in my Power Rankings every week. Right now, Chicago, who didn’t make the playoffs last year, looks like a lock to make it this year. Meanwhile, Cincinnati and New Orleans, two playoff teams from a year ago, look very unlikely to make it this year. Indianapolis, sitting at 5-3, is another solid bet to make the playoffs after missing it last year. Detroit, at 4-4, probably has to go 6-2 the rest of the way to make the playoffs, against a brutal schedule, so they’re probably out. Other than that, not much is set in stone.

Miami, San Diego, Minnesota, Seattle, and Tampa Bay are the serious candidates for the other 3 spots in the 5 in category, while, in my opinion, Green Bay and Baltimore, thanks to injury, seem to be in the strongest (weakest?) position to be the other 2 out. Philadelphia and Dallas were candidates to be in the 5 in group before losses last week and that pretty much locked the Giants, another 5 out candidate, into a playoff spot.

Pittsburgh is another 5 out candidate, but I think they’re a better team than Baltimore right now and will sweep the two games against them, but we’ll know more in the next few weeks. With New Orleans, Detroit, and Green Bay out, that opens two more spots in the AFC, with Chicago already pretty safely locked into taking New Orleans’s vacated spot. I think Tampa Bay and Seattle have the edge over Detroit and Minnesota because those two teams have brutal schedules going forward. Seattle, meanwhile, is at home, where they’re awesome, in 4 of their final 7, and their road games aren’t too hard either as they go Miami, Chicago, and Buffalo. If they run the table at home and win one of those 3 road games, that’s 10 wins and they already have an important tiebreaker over Green Bay.

Seattle Seahawks

Studs

QB Russell Wilson: 16 of 24 for 173 yards and 3 touchdowns, 1 throw away, 1 batted pass, 3 drops, pressured on 10 of 28 drop backs (1 sack, 3 scrambles, 3 of 6, 1 touchdown, 1 throw away, 1 drop), rushed for 26 yards on 9 attempts, 1 fumble

RB Marshawn Lynch: Rushed for 124 yards (60 after contact) and a touchdown on 26 attempts, 4 broken tackles, caught 2 passes for 26 yards on 2 attempts

LT Russell Okung: Didn’t allow a pressure on 33 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 12 yards on 2 attempts

CB Brandon Browner: Allowed 1 catch for 14 yards on 4 attempts, 1 interception, 1 penalty, 7 solo tackles, 1 assist

CB Richard Sherman: Didn’t allow a completion on 1 attempt, 1 solo tackle

P Jon Ryan: 4 punts for 195 yards, 3 inside 20, 3 returns for 1 yard, 48.5 net yards per punt

Duds

RT Breno Giacomini: Allowed 1 sack and 3 quarterback hurries on 33 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 17 yards on 3 attempts

LE Red Bryant: Didn’t record a pressure on 27 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

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Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks: Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 9 NFL Picks, Seahawks, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (5-3) at Seattle Seahawks (4-4)

I think I preface every single one of my picks on Seattle’s game by saying I love picking their games because of their huge home/road disparity. Dating back to 2007, they are 30-14 ATS at home and 16-30 ATS on the road. They’ve lost their last two after an impressive 4-2 start, including wins over Green Bay, Dallas, and New England at home, and now everyone thinks the sky is falling for this team. The sky isn’t falling. They just went on the road.

We’re not getting any line movement away from Seattle from last week to this week, however, because everyone thinks the sky is falling for Minnesota as well. In fact, this line has actually shifted from -3 and -4. However, they may be right when they say the sky is falling for Minnesota. It’s tough to knock a team, especially such a young team, for a bad game on a short week, but, Christian Ponder will need to step it up. In his last 3 games, he’s completed 62 of 104 for 661 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, all less than stellar team performances (0-2-1 ATS).

In spite of that and Seattle’s home prowess, I don’t love Seattle or anything this week because Minnesota has some things in their favor. First, they’re rested. Teams are 114-93 ATS on Sunday after Thursday Night. Second, dogs are 86-49 ATS before being favorites since 2011, including 16-3 ATS off a loss as favorites. Going back to 2008 for a bigger sample size, that trend is 50-21 ATS. They host the Lions next week.

We’re also getting line value with the road team. Minnesota actually ranks better in both yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential than Seattle, ranking 6th and 15th respectively, while Seattle ranks 10th and 20th respectively. Those statistics give us “real” lines of Seattle -1.5 in each instance, though it’s definitely worth noting that the momentum is not on Minnesota’s side. I’m still taking the home team, but it’s a small play.

Public lean: Seattle (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Minnesota covers)

Sharps lean: SEA 7 MIN 7

Final update: No change.

Seattle Seahawks 17 Minnesota Vikings 10

Pick against spread: Seattle -4 (-110) 1 unit

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Seattle Seahawks: Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#14)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Seahawks

Last week: 14 (-0)

Record: 4-4

No the sky is not falling with this team. They just went on the road for 2 games. Everything will be fine this week when the play the Vikings back in Seattle, where they play 5 of their final 8 games. They’ll still be right in the NFC playoff mix, but they will have to win 1 more road game. 9 wins probably won’t cut it in the NFC and that’s assuming they win out at home. Their last 3 road games are in Miami, Chicago, and Buffalo.

Studs

LT Russell Okung: Did not allow a pressure on 38 pass block snaps, run blocked for 1 yard on 2 attempts

LG James Carpenter: Did not allow a pressure on 38 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 1 attempts

QB Russell Wilson: 25 of 35 for 246 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception, 3 drops, 1 throw away, pressured on 6 of 36 drop backs (4 of 6, 1 throw away)

Duds

CB Brandon Browner: Allowed 5 catches for 52 yards and 2 touchdowns on 8 attempts, 2 penalties, 3 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle

RE Chris Clemons: 2 quarterback hits and 1 quarterback hurry on 48 pass rush snaps, 1 missed tackle

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Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions: Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 8 NFL Picks, Lions, Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks (4-3) at Detroit Lions (2-4)

I feel like I say this about the Seahawks every week when I pick their game, but I love picking their games because they have such a big home/road disparity. On the road, they are 16-29 ATS since 2007, as opposed to 30-14 ATS at home. As dogs, their record is even worse on the road as they are 12-23 ATS. On the East Coast at 1 PM, as is typically the case with west coast teams, they really struggle, going 4-14 ATS.

That being said, the Seahawks have some things going for them. The first and most obvious is that they are rested. Teams are 114-92 ATS on a Sunday the week after Thursday Night since 1989. They’re also road dogs off of a road loss. This is a strong trend in general as teams are 93-58 ATS in this spot since 2007. Teams tend to be better adjusted to playing on the road directly off another road game.

Even the Seahawks have some success in this spot, at least as compared to what they normally do on the road, going 3-2 ATS on the road as dogs off a loss since 2007. In their 2nd straight road game in general, they are 5-4 ATS. The Seahawks covered in this spot a couple weeks ago in Carolina. The Seahawks are also dogs before being favorites as they host Minnesota next week. Teams are 84-46 ATS in this spot since 2011.

I still like Detroit this week, but it’s for a smaller play. There are several reasons for that, aside from Seattle’s road struggles. For one, both metrics, yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential suggests that Detroit is actually the better team. They’re 4th in the league in yards per play differential and 16th in rate of sustaining drives, while Seattle ranks 16th in yards per play and 20th in rate of sustaining drives. In the yards per play differential method of determining real line, Detroit is -6.5 and in the rate of sustaining drives differential method, Detroit is -4.5.

Neither of those metrics includes special teams, where Detroit has been horrible this year, and that’s one of the flaws with those two metrics. However, I don’t think Detroit’s special teams will be this bad all year because they’re on by far a record pace for futility. Detroit is better than their record. They’ve lost 4 games by 8, 3, 7, and 6. They’re also struggling with turnovers, with a turnover differential of -5, but that tends to even out over time (for more click here). I think we’re getting line value with the Lions, especially given Seattle’s road struggles. The 2nd reason I like Detroit is because this is a do or die game for a team that made the playoffs last year. This is their last stand, so they could easily play their best football game of the year. I don’t have a trend for this, but I like betting on former playoff teams in must win games.

The final reason I like Detroit is because favorites are evenly going to even things out. Dogs are 63-39 ATS this year, but the odds makers probably want to close that gap before the season is done so bettors don’t catch on and start picking all dogs. Neither dogs nor favorites have finished 10 games over .500 ATS in a single season in the last decade at least. Seattle actually has a slight public lean this week, so they’re a public dog. Even if it’s only barely, it still makes Detroit a good play because Detroit can cover without losing the odds makers money, which is obviously what they want. It’s always a good thing to want the same things as them. I like Detroit as long as the spread is 3 or lower.

Public lean: Seattle (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Detroit covers)

Sharps lean: DET 15 SEA 13

Final update: No change

Detroit Lions 20 Seattle Seahawks 13

Pick against spread: Detroit -2.5 (-110) 2 units

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Seattle Seahawks: Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#14)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Seahawks

Last week: 10 (-4)

Record: 4-3

I’m dropping Seattle from the playoffs in favor of Philadelphia this week, even though Philadelphia didn’t play. Seattle didn’t look particularly bad against San Francisco or anything, but I think Philadelphia is going to edge them out for that final NFC spot and I just changed my mind. Watching Russell Wilson and this terrible passing offense struggle to move the ball on Thursday Night didn’t help. They’ve got a great defense and can run the ball, but the NFC is a loaded conference so I have them just outside right now.

Seattle Seahawks

Studs

RB Marshawn Lynch: Rushed for 103 yards (61 after contact) on 19 attempts, 2 broken tackles, caught 1 pass for 13 yards on 2 attempts, 1 drop

C Max Unger: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 28 pass block snaps, run blocked for 60 yards on 10 attempts

CB Brandon Browner: Allowed 1 catch for 4 yards on 2 attempts, 1 interception, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

Duds

WR Golden Tate: Did not catch a pass on 3 attempts on 22 pass snaps, 1 drop

TE Zach Miller: Was not thrown to on 20 pass snaps, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 2 pass block snaps

RT Breno Giacomini: Allowed 1 sack and 4 quarterback hurries on 28 pass block snaps

LE Red Bryant: Did not record a pressure on 17 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

DT Alan Branch: Did not record a pressure on 18 pass rush snaps, no tackles

DT Brandon Mebane: Did not record a pressure on 18 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 penalty

RE Chris Clemons: 2 quarterback hurries on 22 pass rush snaps, 1 missed tackle

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Seattle Seahawks: Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#10)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Seahawks

Last week: 15 (+5)

Record: 4-2

Wow this team is tough at home. Since 2007, they are 15-4 ATS as home underdogs and this might be their most talented overall team ever in that stretch, having knocked off Dallas, Green Bay (sort of), and New England. They might not lose a single game at home this year (Minnesota, Jets, Arizona, St. Louis, and San Francisco) and even if they do, they already have a road win to compensate and as bad as they are on the road, they should get at least one more road win. They’ll be right in the middle of the playoff race in the NFC and could easily be one of this year’s 5 new playoff teams. I don’t know if they can win once there because of Russell Wilson’s limitations as a thrower, but their defense and running game can carry them to the playoffs.

Studs

QB Russell Wilson: 16 of 27 for 293 yards and 3 touchdowns, 2 drops, 116.5 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 10 of 31 drop backs (2 sacks, 2 sacks, 2 of 6, 2 drops), rushed for 17 yards (15 after contact) on 5 carries, 1 broken tackle

LT Russell Okung: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 34 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards on 1 attempt

RT Breno Giacomini: Did not allow a pressure on 34 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 9 yards on 2 attempts

CB Richard Sherman: Allowed 2 catches for 32 yards on 7 attempts, 1 interception, 1 pass deflection, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop

MLB Bobby Wagner: 11 solo tackles, 3 assists, 7 stops, 1 missed tackle, allowed 4 catches for 30 yards on 5 attempts

RE Chris Clemons: 1 sack, 3 quarterback hurries, and 3 quarterback hits on 51 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

P Jon Ryan: 4 punts for 240 yards, 0 inside 20, 4 returns for 68 yards, 43.0 net yards per punt

Duds

C Max Unger: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 34 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked 28 yards on 9 attempts

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Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 7 NFL Picks, 49ers, Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks (4-2) at San Francisco 49ers (4-2)

On Thursday Night, the rule of thumb is to always take a home favorite. It makes sense. Favorites tend to be proven, veteran teams, or at least in comparison to the road team. Meanwhile, the road team has to travel on a short week, which is an obvious disadvantage, especially for a less proven, less veteran team. Road favorites cover at about a 50% clip because the advantage of being a proven, veteran team on a short week normally cancels out the disadvantage of being a road team on a short week.

This week we have a home favorite and the 49ers are the more, proven veteran team here, even just a year and a half into the Jim Harbaugh era. Home favorites are 45-24 ATS on Thursday Night since 1989, including 18-9 ATS as favorites of a touchdown or more. The issue is that both of these trends seem to cancel out when it’s a divisional game. We saw it when Cleveland went to Baltimore (but not when Chicago went to Green Bay). Home divisional favorites are just 17-15 ATS on Thursday Night in the division, including just 8-8 ATS as a favorite of 7 or more. However, because this is an NFC West game, I don’t think that will be as big of a factor.

A rule of thumb in NFC West games is to always pick the home team. NFC West home teams are 38-23 ATS in a divisional game since 2007. Even the 49ers, as good as they were last year, were just 1-2 ATS on the road. This makes sense. NFC West teams tend to be better home teams than road teams in general. In that same time period, no division is better in general at home than the NFC West, which is 103-73 ATS at home.

Even though NFC West games also tend to be lower scoring, home favorites of a touchdown or more also have no problem covering within the division, going 12-3 ATS since 2007. NFC West divisional games also tend to go under the total as the under is 38-23 in divisional games in that same time period. Thursday Night games tend to go under more often than not anyway as the under is 69-51 on Thursday Nights since 1989. When one team is favored by a touchdown or more, it goes under even more frequently, 28-13, so I’m once again putting 1 unit on the under on Thursday night.

It helps San Francisco’s case to cover that their opponent is the Seahawks. They’re the perfect example of this division, great at home, poor on the road. Since 2007, they are 15-29 ATS on the road, 30-14 ATS at home. As road dogs of more than a touchdown, they’re 4-12 ATS. I’ve correctly predicted 5 of their 6 games this year, all for big plays, using pretty much solely that fact, including hits on 3 money line plays as home dogs to Dallas, Green Bay, and New England.

Speaking of that win over New England last week, because it was so “surprising,” it makes them a little overrated right now. Really, that win was not surprising at all, if you know anything about what type of team they are at home, especially as dogs of 3 or more. In those situations, they’re 15-4 ATS since 2007. They’re not a better team than New England. Not only is that win causing them to be slightly overrated right now, it also puts them in a bad spot this week. Road dogs of 7+ are 22-42 ATS off of a home win as dogs. Furthermore, teams are 7-14 ATS on Thursday Night off a win as home dogs, 3-9 ATS off a win as home dogs of 3+.

San Francisco, meanwhile, is in a good spot coming off an upset loss to the New York Giants, although not as good of a spot as the Seahawks’ spot is bad. There’s no real trend that says teams bounce back off of losses, but good, well coached teams always seem to do so. Bill Belichick is 35-19 ATS in that spot since 2000. Mike McCarthy is 21-13 ATS in that spot since 2006. Mike Tomlin is 16-10 ATS in that spot since 2007. Sean Payton is 20-12 ATS in that spot since 2006. Of the current NFL Head Coaches who have won a Super Bowl with their current team, only Tom Coughlin (26-23 ATS) doesn’t have a very impressive ATS record off a loss.

Jim Harbaugh doesn’t have a Super Bowl ring yet, but everything he’s done so far suggests he’ll be in that group someday. He’s already got a fairly impressive resume off a loss, going 5-0 ATS and 5-0 SU. Those 5 straight up wins came by an average of 19.2 points per game. Looking forward to the future, the 49ers are also in a nice spot as home divisional favorites before being road divisional favorites (they go to Arizona next week). Teams are 109-81 ATS in that spot since 1989.

Finally, we’re getting line value with the 49ers. People who read this frequently know I love to go on and on about yards per play differential. Well, I have another metric that I think works well with yards per play differential, which I’ll go to in a second. First, the 49ers still rank 1st in the league in yards per play differential. If you take the difference between Seattle’s yards per play differential (not too shabby at 12th) and San Francisco’s, divide by .15 and add 3 points to San Francisco’s side for home field advantage, you get a line of 11.5, which suggests 4.5 points of line value with the 49ers.

One issue I noticed with using solely this metric, which a lot of bettors do, is it puts too much value on teams that get a lot of big plays, but can’t sustain drives (or conversely, teams that don’t allow a lot of big plays, but can’t get off the field defensively). Think about it. You pass for 30 yards and then gain no yards on your next 3 plays and have to punt. That’s 7.5 yards per play, which is incredibly impressive, but you didn’t sustain a drive. So I’ve essentially created a new statistic called, rate of sustaining drives, not to replace the traditional metric, but to see if any teams are much better in one than the other.

Basically, how I created it is I took first downs and divided it by first downs + turnovers + punts + failed 4th downs. Basically, what it essentially measures is, on any given 1st and 10, how often does a team get another 1st down or sustain the drive. Turnovers (whether traditional or on downs) and punts are obviously failures to achieve 1st and 10. This measures first downs divided by chances at a first down (first downs + failures to achieve 1st and 10).

You can also do this for the defense, how often they can get the opposing team off the field on any given 1st and 10. The statistic is in the form of a percentage and you can subtract the offensive one from the defensive one to get the differential. For example, San Francisco is at +9.9%, while Seattle is at -0.1%. The difference between the percents is 10, divide by 1.5 this time (which conveniently works very well with the numbers) and add 3 points either way for home field and you get a line of San Francisco -10. It’s not exactly the same as the yards per play differential true line result, but it’s similar enough that it confirms we are getting line value with the 49ers.

I rarely take favorites for big plays, but that’s what I’m going to do here, even though there is a slight public lean on San Francisco. Everything I can find, every trend, every metric for determining true line suggests that the 49ers should cover here and win with ease. It’s not a 5 unit pick of the week, but it’s 4 units as long as I can get it at -7. If I decide not to do a 5 unit pick of the week (I have a good one in mind), this will be a co-pick of the week. For the record, I am 8-2 on picks I call pick of the week or co-pick of the week. I’m also putting one unit on the under.

Public lean: San Francisco (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Seattle covers)

San Francisco 49ers 23 Seattle Seahawks 10

Pick against spread: San Francisco -7 (-110) 4 units

Over/under: Under 37 (-110) 1 unit

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New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks: Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 6 NFL Picks, Patriots, Seahawks

New England Patriots (3-2) at Seattle Seahawks (3-2)

As you may know, the Seahawks have a huge home/road disparity. Since 2007, they are 29-14 ATS at home and 15-29 ATS on the road. Because of this, I love betting on their games and frequently make significant plays on them at home and against them on the road. For the first 4 weeks of the season, I was 4-0 on their games using mainly just the home/road disparity and all 4 were significant plays.

Last week, the Seahawks won in Carolina and I lost my bet, as I failed to put enough value into the Panthers’ injuries (Jon Beason, Chris Gamble) and into the fact that the Seahawks were in their 2nd straight road game. Before last week, dogs in their 2nd straight road game were 122-86 ATS since 2008. As bad as the Seahawks are on the road, they were 4-4 ATS in that situation coming into last week. Still, betting on them at home and against them on the road is generally a good idea.

This week, they are 4 point home dogs. As home dogs of 3 or more, this team is 14-4 ATS since 2007, including 2-0 this year, pulling two home upsets over the Cowboys and the Packers. Home dogs, in general, are 18-11 ATS this year, which is something. We’re also getting line value with the Seahawks. The difference between these two teams’ yards per play differentials is 0.4, in favor of Seattle, which should translate to a line of 5.5 in favor of Seattle, and that’s not even taking into account how good they are at home. We’re getting at least 9.5 points of line value with the Seahawks.

The reason the Seahawks have the superior yards per play differential is because the Patriots’ is actually negative. A 24th ranked defense in terms of yards per play allowed has a lot to do with this. They allowed 28 to the Bills and though they only allowed 21 to the Broncos, a lot of that had to do with how little the Broncos were on the field. The Broncos’ defense could not get the Patriots’ offense off the field and the Patriots dominated the time of possession battle roughly 35 minutes to 25 minutes.

The Seahawks, however, lead the league in yards per play allowed. They’ve frustrated Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, and Cam Newton immensely this year, so the Patriots, at the very least, won’t dominate the time of possession battle. This will likely expose their defense. For the record, teams that run 80 plays or more in a non-overtime game are 75-97 ATS since 1989 in their next game.

There are two reasons why the Patriots’ yards per play differential is significantly inferior to their record and points differential. The first one is that they’ve become a running team. Running plays tend to get fewer yards per, but tend to translate to more consistent drives. This is one of the few flaws of yards per play. Teams that run more will look inferior to teams that pass more, even though that might not be the case. The Patriots have actually run on 191 plays, as opposed to 185 passes this year. However, the same can be said about Seattle, who has run 172 times to 125 passes, so this is not relevant this week.

The other reason is because they are dominating the turnover battle, forcing 14 takeaways to 4 giveaways. However, turnover differentials tend to be very inconsistent on a week to week basis. If you look at every possible turnover differential that a team can have, teams in each group tend to average a turnover differential of about +0.0 the following week, no matter how good or bad they were in this area the following week. You can see more, here.

I almost want to make an exception for the Patriots because they’ve done this for so long and because they’re so well coached and so well quarterbacked, but I really don’t think their defense can rely on takeaways like this going forward. Their offense might continue to limit turnovers. I’m not expecting Tom Brady to start suddenly turning the ball over at a high rate, but their defense won’t continue to average 2.8 takeaways per game from here on out.

Most notably, the high number of fumbles they’ve forced and recovered this year is unlikely to continue. They’re forcing and recovering 1.6 fumbles per game right now. That’s a record pace. They’ve recovered 8 of the 10 fumbles they’ve forced, which is also unlikely to continue. Even, if they continue to force fumbles at this rate, they can still only expect to recover 1 per game (5 over 5 games).

In spite of all this, the public is pounding New England likely because of how unstoppable their offense has looked in the past few weeks. That’s true. They have been pretty unstoppable, but the Seahawks probably have a better chance than anyone else they’ve faced of doing so. I love going against the public, particularly on big public leans, and that’s just another reason to love Seattle this week. This is a big play.

Public lean: New England (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Seattle covers)

Sharps lean: NE 15 SEA 10

Final update: Slight sharp lean on New England, but I still like Seattle.

Seattle Seahawks 23 New England Patriots 20 Upset Pick +160

Pick against spread: Seattle +4 (-110) 4 units

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Seattle Seahawks: Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#15)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Seahawks

Last week: 16 (+1)

Record: 3-2

I know the Seahawks lost to the Cardinals and have a worse record, but I’m putting the Seahawks one spot ahead of the Cardinals. That was a close game (and is the difference in these two teams’ records) and it would have had a different result in Seattle. These are similar constructed teams (great defense, one good offensive player), but I was impressed with the Seahawks going on the road to Carolina on the East Coast at 1PM ET and winning. As good as they are at home, road victories are going to be what decides this team’s playoff fate in a loaded NFC.

Studs

CB Richard Sherman: Allowed 1 catch for 7 yards on 3 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackle, 1 assist, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

FS Earl Thomas: 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, did not allow a completion on 1 attempt

MLB Bobby Wagner: 5 solo tackles, 5 stops, 1 missed tackle, 2 sacks on 7 blitzes, was not thrown on

RE Chris Clemons: 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 34 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 3 solo tackles, 2 assists, 3 stops

Duds

LG James Carpenter: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 31 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 9 yards on 2 attempts

LE Red Bryant: Did not record a pressure on 19 pass rush snaps, no tackles

ROLB KJ Wright: 3 solo tackles, 2 assists, allowed 4 catches for 47 yards on 5 attempts, 1 quarterback hurry on 7 blitzes

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Seattle Seahawks (2-2) at Carolina Panthers (1-3)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 5 NFL Picks, Panthers, Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks (2-2) at Carolina Panthers (1-3)

I love exploiting home/road discrepancies, so Seattle is one of my favorite teams to bet on (or against). I’m 4-0 picking their games this year simply following the concept of betting on them at home and against them on the road, all 4 of which were significant plays. They are 29-14 ATS at home since 2007 and 14-29 ATS on the road. This year, that has been especially true as they’ve lost twice as road favorites and won twice as home dogs.

Carolina, meanwhile, is a much underrated team. I said this last week and nailed one of my co-picks of the week with them (actually I nailed all 3) as they hung within 2 points of Atlanta in the Georgia Dome and almost pulled a shocking upset. The reason they are is because of how many turnovers they committed in the first 3 games.

That might seem counterintuitive, but let me explain. Turnovers tend to be very inconsistent on a week to week basis. The average turnover differential the following week for a team that had a differential of +5 one week is the same as the average turnover differential the following week for a team that had a differential of -5. They’re right around at +0.0. In fact, that’s the case for every turnover differential bracket. That’s why I wasn’t shocked at all that they were even in turnovers with the Falcons last week, despite Atlanta leading the league in turnover differential and Carolina being dead last.

Turnovers aside, they rank 5th in the league in yards per play differential. Seattle, meanwhile, ranks 17th, right in the middle with an even +0.0. An old gambling formula says to take the difference of the differentials, divide by .15 and add 3 points either way for home field. The difference for these two teams is .7 in favor of Carolina, so this line should be -7.5 in favor of Carolina and that doesn’t even take into account Seattle’s struggles on the road. The line is, instead, -3.

Carolina is also heading into a bye this week, so that should keep this team from falling into the breather game trap as favorites after losing as a dog and before being a dog (Carolina plays Dallas after the bye). Teams in that breather situation are normally 52-78 ATS since 2008. However, before a bye, they are 15-19 ATS since 1989 (I go back to 1989 because there’s no enough results going back to just 2008), which is pretty even. There’s also no guarantee they will be home dogs to Dallas, so that’s not really applicable. One thing that is applicable is that they are heading into a bye. Teams are 31-17 ATS since 2002 going into a bye off a loss of 3 or fewer, 14-5 ATS off divisional loss and 18-8 ATS as favorites.

Given what I’ve said above, you’re probably thinking this will be a big play. However, there are several things keeping this from being a pick of the week. For one, this is Seattle’s 2nd straight road game. Teams tend to be undervalued in this situation because teams seem to find road games easier the 2nd time around. This makes sense as several teams don’t go home at all in between road games so they’re much more used to not being home.

Since 1989, teams in their 2nd straight road game lose by an average of 2.0 points, as opposed to road teams coming off a home game, who lose by 3.1. Overall, road teams lose by 2.8 points (which is why we use 3 points for home field advantage). This trend is strongest for dogs coming off a loss as dogs (59-38 ATS since 2008), but coming dogs coming off a loss as favorites also is a trend. Since 2008, teams are 10-4 ATS in that situation, though going back to 2002 it’s just 24-17. The Seahawks, meanwhile, as bad as they are on the road, are 4-4 ATS in their 2nd straight road game since 2007.

Another reason why Carolina isn’t a pick of the week is that they’re expected to be missing top cornerback Chris Gamble. Gamble is not someone most bettors know about. In fact, this line hasn’t moved at all in spite of his expected absence, but he’s one of the better cornerbacks in the league and played at a borderline Pro Bowl level last year. That’s a big loss for a Panthers team that already ranks just 20th against the pass. Still, I don’t trust Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense to take advantage. I also don’t get to bet against the public if I take Carolina, which I love doing, but I can’t always do it and Carolina feels like the right side. It’s not a pick of the week, but it’s a significant play.

Public lean: Carolina (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Seattle covers)

Sharps lean: CAR 13 SEA 9

Final update: Nothing to see here. Still like Carolina.

Carolina Panthers 24 Seattle Seahawks 16

Pick against spread: Carolina -3 (-110) 3 units

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