Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks at Washington Football Team: 2021 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (3-7) at Washington Football Team (4-6)

Washington started the season 2-6, but they have been better in recent weeks since their offensive line has gotten healthy, particularly the re-addition of stud right guard Brandon Scherff. They have won their past two games to push their record to 4-6, which is still not all that impressive, but it’s more impressive when you consider that they have faced arguably the toughest schedule in the league. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency ratings, Washington ranks 9th, 28th, and 3rd on offense, defense, and special teams respectively, while ranking 13th in mixed efficiency. 

Unfortunately, the public and odds makers seem to have caught onto this, as we have lost a significant amount of line value in the past week, with the Seahawks going from being favored by 3.5 points on the early line last week to now being underdogs of one point. Seattle is missing a key starting offensive lineman with Damien Lewis out and, with that taken into account, my calculated line has Washington favored by 1.5 points, so we are still getting some line value with Washington, but it’s a miniscule amount. In fact, I am going to pick the Seahawks in this matchup just because I don’t want to go against Russell Wilson (31-14-3 ATS off of a loss and 10-1 ATS off of two straight losses) in a must win situation. This is a no confidence pick though, as a push may be the most likely result though and this should be a very close matchup.

Washington Football Team 24 Seattle Seahawks 23

Pick against the spread: Seattle +1

Confidence: None

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: 2021 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (8-2) at Seattle Seahawks (3-6)

This game is a tough call because both quarterbacks have significant injury question marks. Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson will play, but he returned very early from a hand injury and did not look close to 100% in his first game back last week, while Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray is reportedly a gametime decision after being limited in practice all week and missing the past two weeks with an ankle injury. It sounds like he’s expected to play and he definitely practiced more than the past two weeks, but it remains to be seen how effective he’ll be. It’s very possible he’ll be closer to 100% than Wilson is because he wasn’t rushed back, but there is a lot of uncertainty here. 

The Cardinals may have the slight quarterback health edge, but the Seahawks are much better than their 3-6 record, as they faced a tough schedule early in the year, starting 2-3, then they went 1-2 without Russell Wilson, but outscored their opponents, with both losses being winnable games, and then last week they lost 17-0 in Wilson’s first game back, largely due to Wilson’s struggles. If he’s closer to 100% this week, the rest of this team is playing well enough for the Seahawks to be a tough opponent again. 

The Seahawks are also the healthier team overall, as the Cardinals’ injuries go well before Murray, as top wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, talented left guard Justin Pugh, and stud interior defender JJ Watt are all out once again this week, after being big parts of the reason for their early success this season. With both quarterback injuries factored in, I have this line calculated at even, with the Cardinals missing all of the other key players they are missing, so we are getting some line value with the Seahawks at +1.5. 

I also like getting Russell Wilson off of a loss, a spot he is 31-21 ATS in during his career, including 17-8 ATS at home, though his injury situation makes me less confident that he’ll bounce back than I would if not for the injury. The Seahawks are not worth betting against the spread, but they should be considered no worse than 50/50 to win this game straight up, so there is some value betting on the money line, especially on the off chance that Murray does not play. If that happens, the Seahawks will likely become the favorite and I could hedge by making a small bet on them as well, ensuring I would make at least some money regardless of who wins this game. Or I could just stick with the Seahawks and enjoy betting against Colt McCoy as a road favorite against Russell Wilson.

Update: Now it sounds like Murray will not be playing once again and this line has shifted to favoring the Seahawks by 3 points as a result. If you bet the Seahawks money line when the Cardinals were favored, you can now bet the Cardinals money line (+135) and ensure you make money either way. I am not heding and will be sticking with my original bet because I don’t have much confidence in Colt McCoy on the road in Seattle in a must win game for Russell Wilson and an underrated Seahawks team, who has lost three of their six games by three points each. My calculated line if Murray is out is Seattle -6.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Arizona Cardinals 23 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Seattle +1.5

Confidence: Low

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers: 2021 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (3-5) at Green Bay Packers (7-2)

The Packers get Aaron Rodgers back from a one-game absence this week and they are 7-1 with him this season, but they have more reason to be concerned than it seems. Rodgers is returning, but they remain without three of their best players, edge defender Za’Darius Smith, cornerback Jaire Alexander, and left tackle David Bakhtiari, who have missed most or all of the season. The Packers have still been winning games without them, but they rank just 13th, 10th, and 30th in offensive, defensive, and special teams efficiency and don’t really have any dominant wins. 

Just two of their wins came by more than 10 points and those came in games in which the Packers were down at halftime at home to the winless Lions and in which the Packers were outgained at home on a per play basis by a mediocre Washington team. The Packers did go into Arizona and win, but the Packers were very reliant in the turnover battle in that game, losing the first down rate battle by 5.93%, but winning by a field goal in a game in which the Packers won the turnover battle by three.

One of those turnovers was a late interception to seal the game when the Cardinals were in range to at least send the game to overtime, if not win outright. The Packers scored off the Cardinals’ other two takeaways too, so if any one of those turnovers doesn’t happen, the Packers could have easily lost. Given how inconsistent turnover margins are on a week-to-week basis, the Packers can’t count on that again and, given that the Cardinals outperformed the Packers in other key metrics, the Cardinals would likely win a rematch more often than not, so even that was not a dominant win.

The Seahawks, meanwhile, get Russell Wilson back from a three-game absence and might be a little underrated. In fact, I have them as the slightly better of these two teams right now. The Seahawks were just 2-3 with Wilson, but they faced a tough schedule and, even without Wilson, the Seahawks outscored their opponents across 3 games, as they went just 1-2, but had a chance to win both games they lost. Even with Wilson missing half of the season, they rank 17th in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency, while their defense and special teams rank 19th and 12th respectively. 

Despite possibly being the better team right now, the Seahawks are underdogs of more than a field goal in Green Bay. My calculated line has the Packers at -1, so we’re getting significant line value with the Seahawks at +3.5, especially when you consider that about 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less. However, I don’t want to bet against the Packers in Green Bay, where they are 47-22 ATS in games in front of fans in which Aaron Rodgers starts and finishes. Rodgers himself has a QB rating that is about 10 points higher at home than on the road, well beyond the average home/road differential. Between that and the uncertainty with both quarterbacks in their first game back, I don’t want to bet this game, but the Seahawks are the pick for pick ‘em purposes.

Green Bay Packers 23 Seattle Seahawks 21

Pick against the spread: Seattle +3.5

Confidence: Low

Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks: 2021 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5) at Seattle Seahawks (2-5)

It’s hard to understate how much the Seahawks miss Russell Wilson. Both of their full games without him have been close, but those games were against a mediocre Steelers team and a Saints team that was probably caught looking forward to their bigger matchup with the Buccaneers the following week. Their offense has struggled mightily without him and, with top running back Chris Carson also out, the Seahawks aren’t really good at anything on either side of the ball right now. 

The Seahawks have an easy matchup with the Jaguars this week, but they are favored by 3.5 points at home, suggesting they are a significantly better team, which I don’t think is the case right now. About 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less and the Seahawks shouldn’t be favored by more than a field goal against anyone other than the Texans or maybe the Jets. There isn’t enough here to take the Jaguars with confidence, but this line seems a little bit off as the most likely result of this game is either team winning by a field goal, both of which would cover this line.

Seattle Seahawks 23 Jacksonville Jaguars 20

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +3.5

Confidence: Low

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks: 2021 Week 7 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (3-2) at Seattle Seahawks (2-4)

The Saints have been the most inconsistent team in the league thus far this season, leading the league in DVOA variance, with their losses coming in overtime to a 1-win Giants team and in blowout fashion to a Panthers team that has only beaten the Texans and Jets aside from their victory over the Saints, while their wins have all been by double digits against the Green Bay, New England, and Washington, who have just two other double digit losses between them, which came against the Chiefs and Bills, two of the top teams in the league. 

Now coming out of their week 6 bye, I would expect the Saints to be more consistent in a good way, as they are getting a significant number of key players back this week, including left tackle Terron Armstead, center Erik McCoy, and kicker Will Lutz, who are all among the best players in the league at their positions. Linebacker Kwon Alexander and Marcus Davenport also could return from extended absences this week. This is traditionally a team that gets better as the season goes on anyway, going 72-48-3 ATS in week 6 or later over the past 10 seasons. On top of that, big road favorites tend to cover at a high rate out of a bye, with favorites of 3.5+ covering at a 64.2% rate with extended rest over the past 30 seasons. 

We aren’t getting much line value with the Saints this week, but my calculated line is New Orleans -6, with the Saints getting significantly healthier and the Seahawks continuing to be without quarterback Russell Wilson, which obviously handicaps them in a significant way. Between that and the great spot the Saints are in, there is enough here for New Orleans to be worth a small bet as 4.5 point road favorites.

New Orleans Saints 24 Seattle Seahawks 17

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -4.5

Confidence: Medium

Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2021 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (2-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-3)

The Seahawks are in trouble, sitting at 2-3 in the best division in the NFL, having now lost starting quarterback Russell Wilson for an extended period of time with a finger injury. Wilson hasn’t missed a start since joining the Seahawks in 2012 and has been about as valuable to the Seahawks as any quarterback has been to their team over that time frame. That being said, I do like the Seahawks chances of covering this week in Pittsburgh, as 5-point underdogs.

The Seahawks’ 2-3 record is more the product of a tough schedule and they’ve gotten about league average play from their defense and special teams, so the rest of this roster isn’t terrible. Their offense will obviously take a big hit without Wilson, but teams tend to play at 110% in their first game with a backup quarterback in the lineup and they have a solid offensive supporting cast, led by a talented duo of wide receivers, so the Seahawks aren’t in bad shape, facing a Steelers team that I have about four points below average.

The Steelers’ offense is no better than a year ago and, in fact may be worse, while their defense is still good, but not good enough to offset their offensive performance like they were last season, when the Steelers won a lot of close games against easy competition. The Steelers won week 1 in Buffalo, which was a big surprise at the time, but given how they’ve played in their past four games, only beating a banged up Broncos team, it’s pretty safe to say that week one result was a fluke. 

The Steelers shouldn’t be favored by 5 points over anyone but the worst teams in the league, which is not what the Seahawks are, even without Wilson. My calculated line has the Steelers as just 1.5 point favorites, so there is enough line value to take the Seahawks confidently, with about a third of games decided by 5 points or fewer. I didn’t have any one game I loved this week, so by default this is my Pick of the Week, but that doesn’t mean the Seahawks aren’t a strong value this week.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Seattle Seahawks 16

Pick against the spread: Seattle +5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks: 2021 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (3-1) at Seattle Seahawks (2-2)

The Rams got off to an impressive 3-0 start, capped by a win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but they lost at home last week to another impressive team, the Arizona Cardinals. The Seahawks, meanwhile, bounced back from two straight losses to win in San Francisco last week, a quality win on the road. Despite that, this line has shifted from favoring the Rams by 1.5 points a week ago up to 2.5 points this week. That’s not a significant shift, but it’s a shift away from what you would expect based on last week’s results.

One possible reason for the shift is that Seahawks running back Chris Carson will likely be out, or at least limited, but the Seahawks will get right tackle Brandon Shell back, which somewhat cancels that out because the Seahawks have better running back depth than offensive tackle depth. The Seahawks also have been close to an automatic bet on Thursday Night in the Russell Wilson era, going 9-0-1 ATS, including 5-0 ATS at home. 

I normally don’t put too much stock into those types of things, but the Seahawks have had the same coach and quarterback throughout that stretch, so it’s possible they just prepare better on short weeks. I would need a full field goal to bet the Seahawks against the spread, as my calculated line is even, but this is no worse than a 50/50 bet on the money line, so the Seahawks are worth a play at +120.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Los Angeles Rams 23 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: Seattle +2.5

Confidence: Low

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (1-2) at San Francisco 49ers (2-1)

I expected the 49ers to win the NFC West and be one of the top teams in the NFC coming into the season, but that was primarily dependent on them staying significantly healthier than a year ago. The 49ers were much better than their 6-10 record suggested last season and they are still not as injury plagued as a year ago, but the injuries are piling up, as they are missing starting linebacker Dre Greenlaw, their top two cornerbacks Jason Verrett and K’Waun Williams, starting running back Raheem Mostert, and possibly their stud tight end George Kittle, who barely practiced this week.

I still have the 49ers a little bit better than the Seahawks, a solid team in their own right, so this line, which only favors them by 2.5 points at home, is too low, but I can’t bet on the 49ers confidently given the uncertainty around Kittle’s status and how much he will play. I also don’t like going against Russell Wilson after back-to-back losses, as he is 30-13-3 ATS in his career off of a loss and 9-1 ATS off of back-to-back losses. This is a low confidence pick on the 49ers right now, but I would probably drop all confidence if Kittle is ruled out or significantly limited.

San Francisco 49ers 28 Seattle Seahawks 24

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -2.5

Confidence: Low

Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings: 2021 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (1-1) at Minnesota Vikings (0-2)

The Vikings are 0-2, but they aren’t far from being 2-0, as their two losses came by a combined 4 points, one by 1-point and one by a field goal in overtime. Both losses were also on the road against teams I thought were underrated coming into the season in the Bengals and Cardinals. The Vikings were also on my underrated list coming into the season because their defense is much healthier and more talented than a year ago and figures to have a much better season, but I haven’t picked them in any sort of significant way yet because of their early schedule.

I was hoping to get a good line with the Vikings at home against the Seahawks this week and would have recommended a bet at +3, but the Vikings remain home underdogs of just 2 points, meaning they will probably have to win outright to win this game. They could do that and my calculated line actually has the Vikings favored by 1.5 points, but there isn’t enough here to confidently take the Vikings at +2 because they are in a couple of bad spots. 

For one, they are having their home opener in week 3 and teams cover at just a 33.3% rate in a week 3 home opener over the past thirty seasons, although that does go up to 40% for winless teams. On top of that, the Seahawks will be motivated to bounce back after last week’s overtime loss to the Titans and Russell Wilson is 25-12 ATS off of a loss in his career. I’m still taking the Vikings for pick ‘em purposes and the money line is a solid value at +110 as the Vikings should be at least 50/50 to win this game, but I wouldn’t recommend betting the spread in this one.

Minnesota Vikings 27 Seattle Seahawks 26 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Minnesota +2

Confidence: Low

Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks: 2021 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (0-1) at Seattle Seahawks (1-0)

This game has one of the biggest week-to-week line movements of any game this week, with the Seahawks moving from 3.5-point favorites on the early line last week to 6.5-point favorites this week. Normally, I like to fade significant line movements like that as they tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play, but I thought the Seahawks were underrated and the Titans were overrated coming into the season and I still think that is somewhat the case, as my calculated line is Seattle -7.5.

The Titans won 11 games a year ago, but they faced an easy schedule and went 7-2 in one score games, while leading the league with a +11 turnover margin, which are both unsustainable long-term. They were exposed with their week one loss, but I don’t expect them to be drastically better going forward, as their offense could have significant issues without offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. The Seahawks, meanwhile, are one of the most complete teams in the league and should be able to beat a middling Titans team by more than a touchdown. I wouldn’t bet on the Seahawks at -6.5, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Seattle Seahawks 31 Tennessee Titans 23

Pick against the spread: Seattle -6.5

Confidence: Low