Seahawks

New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks: 2020 Week 14 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (0-12) at Seattle Seahawks (8-4)

The Seahawks lost last week in shocking fashion, sitting at 8-3, at home facing a sub-.500 team who was starting a backup quarterback. Even more shocking is that, while the Seahawks’ issues this season have primarily been on the defensive side of the ball, the unit that struggled the most in Seattle’s 17-12 loss was their offense. The good news is I like the Seahawks’ chances of bouncing back, for a few reasons. 

For one, teams typically bounce back off of big upset losses like that, covering at a 57.1% rate all-time after a straight up loss as favorites of 10 or more, as big upset losses tend to be flukes more than anything. The Jaguars’ upset of the Colts and the Raiders’ upset of the Chiefs stand out as two fluky results from this season. The Seahawks’ loss to the Giants will likely be remembered the same way as those losses and both of those teams covered fairly easily the following week. 

The Seahawks lso bounced back from losses well in general in the Russell Wilson era, losing back-to-back games just 9 times in about 9 seasons. The Seahawks are favored by 13.5 points in this matchup with the Jets, so they’ll need to win by a lot to cover, but the Seahawks are also 28-12 ATS off of a loss in the Russell Wilson era, including 8-3 ATS as favorites of more than a touchdown, so a huge victory this week to wash away the taste of last week’s disappointing loss is definitely a possibility.

Even with last week’s disappointing offensive performance, the Seahawks still rank 5th in first down rate over expected at +2.11% and, while their defense ranks an underwhelming 20th in first down rate allowed over expected at +1.11%, defensive performance tends to be much more inconsistent on a week-to-week basis than offensive performance and their defense has been significantly better in recent weeks since getting top safety Jamal Adams and top cornerback Shaq Griffin back from injuries and since adding edge defender Carlos Dunlap in a trade with the Bengals. 

The Seahawks’ offense has also gotten healthier. They’ve gotten their top-2 running backs Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde back from significant absences in recent weeks and this week they’ll have their full healthy offensive line together for the first time since 4, with right tackle Brandon Shell set to return this week. The Seahawks aren’t at 100%, but no one is at this point in the season and they’re legitimately healthier right now than they’ve been since the start of the season. In their current state, I have the Seahawks ranked 2nd in my roster rankings, so they should be a force going forward, last week’s fluky result aside.

The Jets, meanwhile, haven’t won a game all season and most of their losses haven’t been close, as 7 of their 12 losses were by 14 or more points, which would cover this spread, and their average margin of defeat is 14.4 points per game, so the Seahawks wouldn’t even need to give the Jets their average margin of defeat to cover this spread. This line was -15 last week on the early line, but it shifted to 13.5 in the wake of Seattle’s fluky loss, which gives us some extra line value. The Jets’ had one of their better performances of the year last week in a near win over the Raiders, but their good health in the receiving corps and on the offensive line lasted just one week and, as a result, my roster rankings suggest there is about a 14.5 point difference between these two teams.

The Jets are also in a tough spot with back-to-back hard road games, with a trip to Los Angeles to face the Rams on deck. It’s very tough for inferior teams to keep up with superior teams when they have another superior team on deck, as teams are 55-91 ATS since 1989 as double digit underdogs before being double digit underdogs again the following week. Everything suggests this should be a blowout, so, even though I don’t love betting on big favorites, this seems like a relatively safe bet.

Seattle Seahawks 30 New York Jets 13

Pick against the spread: Seattle -13.5

Confidence: Medium

New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks: 2020 Week 13 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (4-7) at Seattle Seahawks (8-3)

Coming out of their bye week last week, the Giants looked like they would be a good bet going forward. They were just 3-7, but they had faced a tough schedule to start their season, including 9 out of 10 games against teams that rank in the top-10 in first down rate allowed over expected, and they were healthier coming out of the bye than they’ve been most of the season. That lasted about a half, as the Giants were up 13-10 with the ball in Cincinnati’s red zone early in the 3rd quarter (with the Bengals’ only touchdown coming on a return touchdown), but then quarterback Daniel Jones suffered a hamstring injury that has him week-to-week and will cause him to miss at least this game in Seattle. 

Jones’ numbers haven’t been that impressive this season, but they’re a lot more impressive when you consider the quality of the defensives he’s been facing and their offense immediately became noticeably more stagnant when he went down, with underwhelming backup quarterback Colt McCoy unable to do much of anything against a mediocre Bengals defense in what ended up being a 19-17 win that could have easily turned to a Giants loss had the Bengals not fumbled at midfield at the end of the game on what could have been a game winning field goal drive. 

McCoy will have a full week of practice with the first team this week, but he figures to continue struggling, as he’s a 34-year-old journeyman with a career 78.2 QB rating, who recently threw more interceptions than touchdowns in a brief stint as the Washington Redskins starting quarterback from 2018-2019. With him under center, the Giants rank 29th in my roster rankings (or 28th depending on who is eligible to play this week for Baltimore), only ahead of the Jets, Bengals, and Jaguars. There’s a huge gap between them and the Seahawks.

The Seahawks have not played as well as their 8-3 record would suggest this season, going 6-2 in one score games, with a +37 point differential and a 12th ranked +0.77% first down rate differential, but I expect them to play better than that going forward. There are a few reasons for that, including simply that they’re typically much better in the second half of the season than the first half in the Russell Wilson era, going 43-21-3 ATS in games 9-16 since Wilson’s first season in 2012, as opposed to just 34-34-4 ATS in games 1-8.

On top of that, the Seahawks are an offensive led team and offensive led teams tend to fare better going forward because offensive performance is much more consistent and predictive week-to-week than defensive performance. The Seahawks rank 5th in first down rate over expected at +2.54%, but are dragged down by a defense that ranks just 27th in first down rate allowed over expected at +1.77%. If they can get even middling play from their defense going forward, they should keep winning games, including some by larger margins than most of their wins thus far this season.

Aside from the inherent randomness of defensive play, the Seahawks are also getting more talented on defense, in large part due to players returning from injury. A few weeks ago, the Seahawks got talented safety Jamal Adams back from a 4-game absence and last week they got Shaq Griffin back also from a 4-game absence. They also added defensive end Carlos Dunlap a few weeks ago in a trade with Cincinnati that gave the Seahawks much needed help on their defensive line, though he is questionable for this game after not practicing all week. Their offense is also healthier than it’s been in recent weeks, with top running backs Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde returning from absences of 4 games and 3 games respectively. My roster rankings have them ranked 4th and they shouldn’t have much trouble with the Colt McCoy led Giants.

Unfortunately, we’re not getting line value with the Seahawks, who have ballooned to 11-point home favorites, despite not having any real homefield advantage without fans. My calculated line is Seattle -11.5, so I think they still have a good chance to cover, especially with without any upcoming distractions on the schedule, with the Jets coming to town next week (home favorites of 10+ are 52-31 ATS since 2002 before being home favorites of 10+ again the following week), but there isn’t enough here for the Seahawks to be worth betting, even if Dunlap is ultimately able to suit up.

Seattle Seahawks 30 New York Giants 17

Pick against the spread: Seattle -11

Confidence: Low

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles: 2020 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (7-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-6-1)

The Seahawks have not played as well as their record would suggest this season, going 5-2 in one score games, with a +31 point differential and a 17th ranked +0.26% first down rate differential, but I expect them to play better than that going forward. There are a few reasons for that, including simply that they’re typically much better in the second half of the season than the first half in the Russell Wilson era, going 43-21-2 ATS in games 9-16 since Wilson’s first season in 2012, as opposed to just 34-34-4 ATS in games 1-8.

On top of that, the Seahawks are an offensive led team and offensive led teams tend to fare better going forward because offensive performance is much more consistent and predictive week-to-week than defensive performance. The Seahawks rank 6th in first down rate over expected at +2.30%, but are dragged down by a defense that ranks just 25th in first down rate allowed over expected at +2.05%. If they can get even middling play from their defense going forward, they should keep winning games, including some by larger margins than most of their wins thus far this season.

Aside from the inherent randomness of defensive play, the Seahawks are also getting more talented on defense, in large part due to players returning from injury. A few weeks ago, the Seahawks got talented safety Jamal Adams back from a 4-game absence and, this week, they’ll be top cornerback Shaq Griffin back, also from a 4-game absence. On top of that, they have upgraded their defensive line in recent weeks with mid-season veteran additions Carlos Dunlap and Damon Harrison. Their offense also gets a boost with feature back Chris Carson returning from his own 4-game absence. With all of these players in the lineup, I have the Seahawks ranked 4th in my roster rankings and they definitely could perform at that level going forward if they can stay relatively healthy.

I was always planning on betting the Seahawks confidently once they got reasonably healthy, but they’re also in a good spot in this game for a couple reasons. For one, they’re a west coast team in a night game against an east coast team. Due to circadian rhythms, west coast teams cover at about a 60% rate against east coast teams at night, as east coast teams tend to get tired towards the end of the game and see their performance fall off in the second half. On top of that, while the Eagles have another tough game on deck in Green Bay, the Seahawks get another relatively easy game at home against the Giants. I wish this line was still at Seattle -3, where it was on the early line last week, but it’s understandable the line would move for the Seahawks being healthier (not to mention the Eagles losing top offensive lineman Lane Johnson for the season) and my calculated line is Seattle -6, so the Seahawks are still worth a bet at -5.

Seattle Seahawks 31 Philadelphia Eagles 23

Pick against the spread: Seattle -5

Confidence: Medium

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: 2020 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (6-3) at Seattle Seahawks (6-3)

The Seahawks started 5-0 before their bye, but it wasn’t a very convincing 5-0, as four of their wins came by one score. It was very similar to last season when they went just 1-3 in games decided by more than one score, but made the playoffs because a 10-2 record in games decided by one score pushed them to 11 wins on the season. In total, the Seahawks went 14-2 in one score games over a 16-game stretch of one score games, which was highly improbable and not something that was likely to continue. Even elite quarterbacks like Russell Wilson struggle to win more than half of their one score games on a consistent basis and before that 14-2 stretch Wilson actually went just 30-34 to start his career in one score games.

Sure enough, since their week 6 bye, the Seahawks have dropped 3 of the past 4 games, including an 0-2 record in one score games. Once seemingly the favorite for the #1 seed in the NFC, the Seahawks are suddenly in a 3-way tie for the NFC West lead, ahead of a crucial Thursday Night Football matchup with the Cardinals, who currently hold the tiebreaker by virtue of a 37-34 victory in Arizona back in week 7. On top of that, of the three teams tied for the NFC West lead, the Seahawks have statistically been the worst, as they have just a +24 point differential and rank just 15th in schedule adjusted first down rate differential at +0.48%.

There is some good news for the Seahawks though. For one, they typically finish seasons better than they start. They lost last week in the first game of the second half, but since Russell Wilson arrived in 2012, the Seahawks are 42-21-2 ATS in games 9-16, as opposed to 34-34-4 ATS in games 1-8. On top of that, the Seahawks are an offensive led team, which is a good thing because offensive performance tends to be much more consistent week-to-week than defensive performance. The Seahawks rank 3rd in first down rate over expected, so if their defense, which has ranked 25th in first down rate allowed over expected, can be even a middling defense the rest of the way, this team is going to be tough to beat.

This is also a great spot for the Seahawks, off of back-to-back losses. Not only does it give us a better line, with the Seahawks shifting from being 5.5-point favorites on the early line last week to being 3-point favorites this week, but they’ve typically done well off of a loss in the Russell Wilson era at 27-12-3 ATS and have been even better off of back-to-back losses, going 7-1 ATS with no 3-game losing streaks in Wilson’s 137-game career. The Seahawks figure to be fully locked in for this game, especially having lost to the Cardinals earlier this season, while the Cardinals could be a little flatter, having already beaten the Seahawks once and coming off an insane last second win against the Bills last week.

All that being said, I was hoping for a better injury report for the Seahawks, as their defense may need to get at least mostly healthy to be a middling unit. They got safety Jamal Adams back a couple weeks ago and have added veterans Damon Harrison and Carlos Dunlap to give them a much needed boost on the defensive line, but they’re still missing both of their cornerbacks, Shaq Griffin and Quinton Dunbar, who will miss their fourth and second game respectively this week. 

On offense, the Seahawks get #2 running back Carlos Hyde back from a 3-game absence, but will be without lead running back Chris Carson for the 4th straight game and, with center Ethan Pocic out, this is their 6th straight game missing at least one starting offensive lineman. Injury problems have been part of the reason for the Seahawks regression in recent weeks, so I was hoping that at least one of the aforementioned absent players would return. 

Without them, it’s hard to justify placing a bet on the Seahawks as field goal favorites, given that they’ll have no real homefield advantage without fans in the stands. This line suggests the Seahawks are about 2.5 points better than the Cardinals, giving them a half point for homefield advantage. I would say 2.5 points is about right, as the Cardinals are in many ways a slightly lesser version of the Cardinals, with a strong offense and a defense that has struggled. I still think the Seahawks should be the right side because I don’t envision them losing three straight games, especially on a short week when the more veteran, better coached team usually wins, but a 1-3 point win wouldn’t really surprise me, so I wouldn’t recommend placing money on the Seahawks.

I am locking in TEN +6 @ BAL and JAX +10.5 vs. PIT now before the lines shift. I will have a full write-ups as usual with the rest of my picks this weekend.

Seattle Seahawks 29 Arizona Cardinals 24

Pick against the spread: Seattle -3

Confidence: Low

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams: 2020 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (6-2) at Los Angeles Rams (5-3)

The Seahawks are 6-2, but four of their six wins have come by one score, including a pair that came down to fourth down stops against the Vikings and Patriots, and they rank just 17th in schedule adjusted first down rate differential. However, there is reason to expect they will be better going forward. The Seahawks have been carried by their offense, ranking 6th in first down rate over expected at 2.38%, but just 26th in first down rate allowed over expected at 2.27%, and offensive performance tends to be much more consistent on a week-to-week than defensive performance. If the Seahawks can even be an average defense going forward, they’re going to be a very tough opponent for anyone.

There are reasons to be optimistic for this Seahawks’ defense, as they got safety Jamal Adams back from a 4-game absence last week and they also added defensive end Carlos Dunlap in a trade with the Bengals, but they may need to be healthier at the cornerback position before they can be significantly improved on the defensive side of the ball, with their top-3 cornerbacks Shaq Griffin, Quinton Dunbar, and Ugo Amadi all out for this one. 

Still, I like their chances of bouncing back this week, purely because losing back-to-back games has been rare for this team in the Russell Wilson era, as they are 27-11-3 ATS and 33-8 straight up after a loss since 2012. On top of that, the Seahawks are also 23-12-3 ATS as underdogs in the Russell Wilson era. The Seahawks have also typically been a better team in the second half of the second with Wilson, going 42-20-2 ATS in games 9-16, as opposed to 34-34-4 ATS in games 1-8. They almost always seem to find a way to get better as the season goes on and it definitely wouldn’t surprise me if that was the case again this season. 

This week, the Seahawks play a Rams team that has a significant defensive edge, but is not nearly as good offensively. I have the Seahawks 1 point better than the Rams in my roster rankings even with all of their cornerback injuries, so we’re getting good line value with the Seahawks as 2-point road underdogs in a stadium that won’t have any fans. There isn’t quite enough here for the Seahawks to be worth betting, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes and the money line at +115 is a good bet as well, as the Seahawks should be considered no worse than 50/50 to win this game straight up.

Update: This is a late update, but this line has moved to 3 in some places before gametime. I would bet the Seahawks at that number.

Seattle Seahawks 26 Los Angeles Rams 24 Upset Pick +135

Pick against the spread: Seattle +3

Confidence: Medium

Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills: 2020 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (6-1) at Buffalo Bills (6-2)

The Seahawks are 6-1, but four of their six wins have come by one score, including a pair that came down to fourth down stops against the Vikings and Patriots, and they rank just 12th in schedule adjusted first down rate differential. However, there is reason to expect they will be better going forward. The Seahawks have been carried by their offense, ranking 1st in first down rate over expected at 3.52%, but just 26th in first down rate allowed over expected at -2.15%, and offensive performance tends to be much more consistent on a week-to-week than defensive performance. If the Seahawks can even be an average defense going forward, they’re going to be a very tough opponent. 

The Seahawks are also getting a huge boost on the defensive side of the ball this week with stud safety Jamal Adams returning for the first time since week 3, further increasing their chances of being significantly improved defensively going forward. On top of that, the Seahawks have typically been a better team in the second half of the second under Pete Carroll, going 51-31 ATS in week 9-17, as opposed to 41-36 ATS in week 1-8. 

All that being said, we’re not getting a ton of line value with the Seahawks as 3-point favorites in Buffalo, even though the Bills won’t have any fans in attendance. I have the Seahawks calculated as 4-point favorites, but the Bills are similar to the Seahawks in that they’ve had a strong offense and an underwhelming defense, ranking 3rd in first down rate over expected at +3.14% and 30th in first down rate allowed over expected at -3.51% and could be significantly better on defense going forward. The Bills have faced an easier schedule than the Seahawks and they aren’t getting much healthier on defense, with top linebacker Matt Milano now missing time for the second stint this season, but they could keep this close. The Seahawks are the pick, but for pick ‘em purposes only.

Seattle Seahawks 35 Buffalo Bills 30

Pick against the spread: Seattle -3

Confidence: Low

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: 2020 Week 8 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (4-3) at Seattle Seahawks (5-1)

Earlier this week, I was expecting to be betting on the Seahawks in this one. This line has shifted significantly since last week, moving from Seattle -6 to Seattle -3, as a result of the 49ers’ dominant win in New England and the Seahawks overtime loss to the Cardinals, which I think is an overreaction, especially since the Cardinals are a legitimately good team, ranking 9th in schedule adjusted first down rate differential, led by an offense that leads the league in first down rate over expected. On top of that, Russell Wilson traditionally bounces back well off of a loss, as many top level quarterbacks do, going 22-10 ATS all-time off of a loss.

Most of the Seahawks’ games have been close over the past two seasons (17 one score games, with the Seahawks going 14-3 in those games) and the 49ers hold the edge in schedule adjusted first down rate differential in 2020, ranking 6th at +2.10%, while the Seahawks rank 15th at +0.92%, but the Seahawks have a big edge on offense, ranking 5th in first down rate over expected at +2.61%, while the 49ers rank 19th at +0.05%. The Seahawks have been held back by a defense that ranks 25th in first down rate allowed over expected, but defensive performance tends to be much more unpredictable on a week-to-week basis than offensive performance and if the Seahawks can even be a middling defensive unit, this team should go a long way, as long as their offense can continue what it’s done so far.

Unfortunately, the Seahawks may need to get healthier before they can expect to even be middling on defense and this week their injury situation is going in the wrong direction, with cornerbacks Shaq Griffin and Ugo Amadi expected to join stud safety Jamal Adams on the sideline, where he would be for the 4th straight game. There’s a slight chance Adams plays because he returned to practice on Friday and was listed as questionable, but he’s had just one limited practice in over a month, so I wouldn’t expect him to be on the field. 

For that reason, it’s hard to be as excited about the Seahawks as I was earlier this week when I thought they were going to be healthier. The Seahawks also have injury concerns on offense, where their top-3 running backs are all listed as questionable after barely practicing all week. If the Seahawks get a favorable inactives list (meaning Adams and at least one of the running backs are active), I will still probably make a bet on the Seahawks, assuming the line doesn’t change, but for now this is a low confidence pick.

Update: Still no word on Jamal Adams, but this line has dropped to 1 overnight. That is likely a sign that Adams won’t play, but at that number, the Seahawks are worth a bet without him. I think it’s unlikely that Russell Wilson loses back-to-back games, even without Adams, and the 49ers, who have been streaky this season, haven’t faced a team as good as the Seahawks.

Seattle Seahawks 29 San Francisco 49ers 24

Pick against the spread: Seattle -1

Confidence: Medium

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: 2020 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (5-0) at Arizona Cardinals (4-2)

The Seahawks are 5-0, but four of their five wins have come by one score. That isn’t anything new for the Seahawks, who have 14 wins by one score or less over the past two seasons, as opposed to 2 losses in one score games. In fact, in games decided by more than one score, the Seahawks are just 2-3 over the past two seasons. A team’s record in close games tends to even out in the long run and, while it might make sense that an elite quarterback like Russell Wilson could consistently pull out close victories, even elite quarterbacks don’t consistently win close games and, before the start of last season, Wilson was just 30-34 in his career in one score games.

Wilson is arguably playing as well as he ever has in his career right now, but even still, the Seahawks aren’t winning easily. Wilson probably won’t play quite this well all season, so the Seahawks will need their defense to play better to compensate or they could very easily start losing some of these games. They’re capable of playing better defensively, but it probably won’t be until they get stud safety Jamal Adams back from injury, which won’t be this week. That’s a problem for the Seahawks, who will be on the road for a key divisional game against the Cardinals, who sit just a game and a half back in the standings right now.

The Cardinals haven’t played a tough schedule, but they’ve won the first down rate battle in 5 of their 6 games, including a 3-point loss to the Lions in which they won the first down rate battle by 10.50%, but lost the turnover margin by 3. The Cardinals rank 2nd in the NFL in first down rate differential at +6.10% and, even adjusted for schedule, they rank 6th at +3.61%. They’re probably overachieving right now, particularly on defense, and could regress, but even still, they’re certainly the kind of team that can give the Seahawks a competitive game and even pull the upset as home underdogs.

I have this line calculated at Seattle -1.5, so we’re getting good value with the Cardinals as 3.5-point home underdogs. The Seahawks are in a good spot coming off of a bye and road favorites of 3 or more are 75-40 ATS off of a bye since 1989, but I don’t know if that should apply, given that this line is too high. It’s enough to deter me from making a bigger play, because good teams often come out of their bye improved, but the Cardinals are still worth a bet, especially since they’re in their own good spot off of a blowout Monday Night Football win, as teams are 64-42 ATS since 1989 off of a MNF win by 21 or more points.

Seattle Seahawks 34 Arizona Cardinals 33

Pick against the spread: Arizona +3.5

Confidence: Medium

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks: 2020 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (1-3) at Seattle Seahawks (4-0)

Russell Wilson has been one of the top quarterbacks in the league throughout his career, but he’s never started a season this well, completing 75.2% of his passes for an average of 9.38 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, with 95 rushing yards in 4 games. The Seahawks overall rank 2nd in the league with a 44.80% first down rate, only behind the Green Bay Packers. This is as talented of an offensive supporting cast as Wilson has ever had, but there’s no denying how valuable Wilson has been for this team thus far. Wilson has somewhat famously never gotten an MVP vote, but it’s safe to say he’ll be in the mix this year if he continues playing this well.

The concern for the Seahawks is that, as well as Wilson is playing, they still aren’t blowing out most of their competition. They won by 13 points week 1 against the Falcons, but the Falcons are one of the worst teams in the league and their other three wins have come by one score, including games against the Cowboys and Dolphins. This isn’t anything new, as the Seahawks won 10 of their 11 wins by one score last season.

The Seahawks’ defense, which ranks 19th in first down rate allowed at 40.68%, is a definite concern, as the Seahawks could see some of their close wins turn to losses if Wilson falls back to earth the rest of the way. Those defensive concerns are even bigger this week with the Seahawks missing safety Jamal Adams due to injury, as Adams is arguably their best defensive player and the top safety in the league.

The Seahawks face a 1-3 Vikings team at home in Seattle this week, but they won’t have their normal homefield advantage and the Vikings are better than their record suggests, as they’ve had some things go against them that are very inconsistent week-to-week, like their -4 turnover margin (5th worst in the NFL), their 22.22% fumble recovery rate (2 of 9, including 1 for 7 on fumbles forced), and the 15 of 15 field goals that opponents have hit against them.

In fact, the Vikings actually rank just slightly behind the Seahawks in first down rate differential (+4.12% vs. +3.84%), despite the fact that they’ve faced a much tougher schedule. DVOA doesn’t have them quite as close, but the Vikings rank 13th, 7 spots behind the Seahawks, which still suggests we’re getting significant line value with the visitor. They should be able to keep this game close like most teams do with the Seahawks and they should also have a better chance to come in and get the straight up win than most expect, especially if Wilson has an off game.

My only concern with this game is the Seahawks are going into their bye, which is usually a good spot for a big home favorite. Since 2002, home favorites of 7+ are 63-25 ATS before a bye. However, the Seahawks are barely 7-point favorites and these two teams are more evenly matched than this line suggests, so I’m not sure this trend applies. My calculated line is just Seattle -4.5, giving the Seahawks 1.5 points for homefield advantage. I don’t like the Vikings as much as my typical Pick of the Weeks, but I don’t see a better option this week. I would be surprised if Seattle was able to win this game by multiple scores, barring some fluky outlier plays.

Seattle Seahawks 31 Minnesota Vikings 27

Pick against the spread: Minnesota +7

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins: 2020 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (3-0) at Miami Dolphins (1-2)

The Seahawks have gotten off to an impressive 3-0 start, but their defense hasn’t been great, ranking 23rd in first down rate allowed, primarily due to their struggles on the defensive line. Their defensive line was expected to be a weakness coming into the season, but the Seahawks’ talented secondary looked like it could make up for that and it hasn’t been quite as good as expected. Making matters worse, cornerback Quinton Dunbar will miss his second straight game with an injury, while stud safety Jamal Adams will join him for his first game sidelined, further weakening their defense.

The Seahawks have a relative easy matchup this week in Miami, but they do have to travel cross-country and Miami has the kind of offense that can move the ball relatively easily on this defense, especially in garbage time. I wouldn’t expect the Seahawks to lose this game, but the Dolphins could easily keep it relatively close or come up with a backdoor cover late. My calculated line suggests we’re getting a little bit of line value with the Seahawks as 5.5-point road favorites, but I’m not confident in them at all.

Seattle Seahawks 33 Miami Dolphins 27

Pick against the spread: Seattle -5.5

Confidence: None