Seahawks

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks: 2019 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (8-3) at Seattle Seahawks (9-2)

Prior to last week’s bye week, the Vikings barely escaped as double digit home favorites over a Broncos team that was quarterbacked by third string Brandon Allen. That’s not as concerning as that sounds though. Not only were the Vikings missing key players like wide receiver Adam Thielen, defensive tackle Linval Joseph, safety Anthony Harris, and right guard Josh Kline, but the Vikings actually won the first down rate battle in that game by 10.32%, winning the game despite losing the turnover battle and despite allowing 4 conversions on 4th down. The Vikings had one more combined touchdown and first down in that game, even though the Broncos were able to run 17 more snaps, so I’m not worried about the underwhelming final score in that game.

Now the Vikings are healthy coming out of their bye and that comes at a perfect time, as they have a matchup with the 9-2 Seahawks this week. The Seahawks have obviously played well this season, but it’s definitely worth noting how many of their wins have been close, as teams with more blowout victories tend to do better moving forward than teams with more close victories. Of the Seahawks nine victories, just one came by more than a touchdown. 

If not for missed makeable field goals by the Rams and 49ers, the Seahawks would be just 7-4 right now and in a battle to even make the post-season. They rank 9th in point differential at +29 and just 13th in first down rate differential at +1.19%. The Vikings are significantly better in both metrics at +84 and +5.08% respectively and, entering this game relatively healthy, they have a noticeable edge in my roster rankings as well. My calculated line for this game is even, so I like the Vikings getting a full field goal.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Seattle Seahawks 23 Upset Pick +140

Pick against the spread: Minnesota +3

Confidence: Medium

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles: 2019 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2019 NFL Picks, 2019 Week 12 NFL Picks, Eagles, NFL Picks, Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks (8-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-5)

The Seahawks have three more wins than the Eagles, but these two teams aren’t far apart talent wise. Many of the Seahawks’ 8 wins could have gone the other way, with a 7-1 record in games decided by 7 points or fewer and a 5-0 record in games decided by 4 points or fewer. They have just a +21 point differential, 11th in the NFL, and rank just 13th in first down rate differential at +1.71%, only slightly better than the Eagles, who rank 17th at +0.52%. 

My roster rankings also have these two teams close, with the Eagles just one spot behind the Seahawks. The Eagles will miss injured right tackle Lane Johnson, but he’ll be replaced by first round pick Andre Dillard, who started for Jason Peters earlier this year and held up well, and they are expected to get wide receiver Alshon Jeffery back from injury, while the Seahawks are expected to be without dominant defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. 

The Eagles are also in a much better spot than the Seahawks. While the Seahawks could have a little bit of split focus this week with a big Monday Night Football matchup against the Vikings on deck, the Eagles have an easy game in Miami that won’t be a distraction at all. Teams are 64-43 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 7 or more and the Eagles are currently favored by 9 points against the Dolphins on the early line. Unfortunately, we’re not getting much line value with the Eagles as 1-point home favorites, as my calculated line is Philadelphia -2.5. The Eagles should still be the right side, especially since the home team winning by a field goal is the most likely outcome of any game, but there’s isn’t enough here for me to bet on them.

Update: Alshon Jeffery surprisingly was ruled out after warm ups, but the line has shifted to Seattle -2 overnight. This is still a low confidence pick because only about 8% of games are decided by 1-2 points, but I like the money line value at +115, as this game as no worse than a toss-up for the Eagles, even without Jeffery

Philadelphia Eagles 23 Seattle Seahawks 21 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +2

Confidence: Low

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: 2019 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (7-2) at San Francisco 49ers (8-0)

The 49ers are the NFL’s lone undefeated team and have been every bit as impressive as that suggests. Their average margin of victory has been 16.63 points per game, with just two wins by one score or fewer. They haven’t overly benefitted from the turnover margin (+4), which tends to be inconsistent, and they’ve actually missed the 2nd most field goals in the league with seven. They lead the league with a +10.36% first down differential, with a pretty decent lead over the second place Patriots (+8.95%).

The 49ers have done this despite missing some key players: left tackle Joe Staley, right tackle Mike McGlinchey, and cornerback Athello Witherspoon. All three of those players are above average starters and could return to action this week, after absences of 6 games, 4 games, and 5 games respectively, but their backups have played so well in their absence that those players might not be that much of a boost. At the same time, the 49ers lost linebacker Kwon Alexander for the season with a torn pectoral last week and will also be without tight end George Kittle in this game with a leg injury. Both of those players are much more irreplaceable than the players who might be returning.

The timing of those two players going down is bad too, as the 49ers have a big matchup this week against the Seahawks, who are 7-2 and still within striking distance for the division title. The Seahawks haven’t played as well as their record would suggest they’ve played though, with six of their 7 losses coming by one score or fewer. In terms of first down rate differential, they rank 12th at +1.71%. Still, with the 49ers missing Kittle and Alexander, we’re not really getting any line value with them as 6-point home favorites. I have this line calculated at San Francisco -6.5, so the 49ers are the pick I would make if I had to, but this is one of my lowest confidence picks of the week.

San Francisco 49ers 31 Seattle Seahawks 24

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -6

Confidence: None

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks: 2019 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-5) at Seattle Seahawks (6-2)

I locked this line in at Tampa Bay +6 earlier this week during my Thursday Night Football write up and I’m glad I did because heavy sharp action on the Buccaneers has driven the line down to +5. The Seahawks are 6-2, but outside of MVP candidate Russell Wilson they have a pretty mediocre roster and have not played all that well that season, in spite of what their record suggests. Five of their 6 wins have come by a combined 15 points, including wins over the Bengals, Steeelers, Browns, and Falcons, who are a combined 6-24. They have just a +12 point differential and they rank just 14th in first down rate differential at +1.13%, despite facing the 8th easiest schedule in the NFL in terms of DVOA. 

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, have faced the 5th hardest schedule in the NFL in terms of DVOA and they’ve been competitive, despite their record. They rank 15th in first down rate differential at -0.18%, not far behind the Seahawks. They’re also in a much better spot, as the Seahawks have to turn around and go to San Francisco next week, while the Buccaneers get to host the Cardinals. Underdogs are 68-31 ATS since 2016 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. This is definitely a look ahead spot for a Seahawks team that has had trouble winning by convincingly by big margins all season and I wouldn’t be surprised if this underrated Buccaneers team pulled the upset. This is my top Pick of the Week and I’d recommend a bet even if you didn’t get the +6 early. 

Seattle Seahawks 33 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +6

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons: 2019 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (5-2) at Atlanta Falcons (1-6)

Things have gone from bad to worse in the Falcons’ wildly disappointing 2019 season, as the Falcons not only lost at home in convincing fashion to the Rams last week, but they also lost quarterback Matt Ryan to an ankle injury. With head coach Dan Quinn likely coaching for his job ahead of the Falcons’ bye week next week, it looked like Ryan was going to play at less than 100% in an otherwise meaningless game, but they couldn’t get him ready for action and will turn to backup Matt Schaub instead, snapping Matt Ryan’s 154-game consecutive start streak, the 5th longest streak in NFL history.

As disappointing as this season as been for the Falcons as a whole, Matt Ryan has still produced at a high level, completing 70.9% of his passes for an average of 7.61 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, while leading the Falcons to a 40.82% first down rate that ranks 5th in the NFL. Now they’ll have to turn to a backup in Matt Schaub who is one of the worst in the NFL. Schaub is plenty experienced with 92 career starts, but he hasn’t been a productive starter since 2012 and, now in his age 38 season, has thrown just 16 regular season passes since his last regular season start in 2015.

Ryan gets a lot of help from a strong receiving corps, but has been pressured on 37.7% of his dropbacks, above the league average, and the Falcons rank just 25th in yards per carry with 3.66, so Schaub doesn’t have a great supporting cast, especially with Mohamed Sanu getting traded. The bigger problem is the defense, which has allowed opponents to move the chains at a 42.13% rate and has not allowed the Falcons’ offense to keep up, especially with top cornerback Desmond Trufant sidelined with an injury. Now without Ryan, the Falcons suddenly have major problems on both sides of the ball.

Despite that, I am actually taking the Falcons as 8.5-point home underdogs this week, although that’s more of a fade of the Seahawks than anything. The Seahawks are 5-2, but four of their five wins have come by 4 points or fewer, including narrow victories over the Bengals and Steelers, who are a combined 2-11. Even with the Falcons in the bottom-5 of my roster rankings without Ryan, I still have the Seahawks calculated as just touchdown favorites, as there’s a good chance the Falcons are able to give the Seahawks a game like almost everyone else has. That’s not nearly enough line value to bet on Matt Schaub with any confidence this week, especially since the Falcons could quit on their lameduck coach if they get down big early, but the Falcons are the pick for pick ‘em purposes.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Atlanta Falcons 16

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +8.5

Confidence: None

Baltimore Ravens at Seattle Seahawks: 2019 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (4-2) at Seattle Seahawks (5-1)

At 5-1, some are talking about the Seahawks as one of the top teams in the league, but they have a lot of flaws on their roster and are lucky to be 5-1, with 4 of their 5 wins coming by 4 points or fewer. Russell Wilson is playing at an MVP level, which masks some of their flaws, but even with him playing as well as he’s playing, the Seahawks still rank just 9th in first down rate differential at +2.34%, despite a relatively easy schedule that has included the Bengals, Steelers, and Cardinals. The Seahawks could still go to 6-1 this week though because they’re at home facing a Ravens team that is also not as good as its record. 

Three of the Ravens’ four wins have come by 6 points or fewer, with the only exception being their blowout of the Dolphins. Those wins have also come against the Cardinals, Steelers, and Bengals and the Ravens struggled to put all three teams away. The Ravens get a boost on defense this week with cornerback Marcus Peters coming over from the Rams in a trade, but the Seahawks also add a key player, with defensive tackle Jarran Reed returning from suspension. This line suggests these two teams are about even, which is about right, but I’m taking the Seahawks because the NFC has had a big advantage over the AFC this year (19-10). A push may be the most likely result though.

Seattle Seahawks 30 Baltimore Ravens 27

Pick against the spread: Seattle -3

Confidence: None

Seattle Seahawks at Cleveland Browns: 2019 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (4-1) at Cleveland Browns (2-3)

I was hoping we’d see significant line movement in this game as a result of the Browns’ blowout loss in San Francisco on Monday Night Football, so we’d get a good line to bet this game. The Browns looked awful in San Francisco, but that was a really tough spot for them, facing a legitimately great 49ers team at night (East Coast teams are at a huge disadvantage against West Coast teams at night), and the Browns have been up and down all year and could easily be back up this week at home.

The Seahawks, meanwhile, are not nearly as good as their 4-1 record would suggest. Their first 3 wins came against teams are a combined 2-12-1 right now, with two of those wins decided by a field goal or less. Their fourth win came last week against the Rams, but that’s not as impressive as it sounds, as the Rams blew a makeable game winning field goal at the end and the Rams have not been as good as their record suggests either, with their first two wins coming against teams that had injured quarterbacks. 

The Seahawks certainly aren’t a bad team, but they rank just 13th in first down rate differential, despite a relatively easy schedule, and this team has too many weaknesses to be considered a true Super Bowl contender as many have anointed them following their close win over the Rams. They’ll also be without left tackle Duane Brown and right guard DJ Fluker in this game, a big blow considering those have been their best two offensive linemen thus far this season. Offensive line was already not a strength for this team, so they could have a lot of trouble keeping the Browns out of their backfield in this game.

Unfortunately, we aren’t getting the line value I expected with the Browns in this game. This line has shifted 4 points in the past week, going from Cleveland -2 on the early line last week to Seattle -2 now, but just 7.5% of games are decided by 2 or fewer points, so that’s largely superficial line movement. I have this line calculated at even, so if the Browns were field goal underdogs, they’d be a smart bet this week, but it’s hard to bet them confidently without field goal protection. 

The one thing that would get me to reconsider that is if one or both of the Browns’ starting cornerbacks end up playing. Neither Denzel Ward nor Greedy Williams have played since week 2, but both returned to practice in a limited fashion this week, so both have a chance to suit up. Until that’s confirmed, I can only recommend the money line, but I could easily have an update on this game tomorrow morning.

Cleveland Browns 20 Seattle Seahawks 19 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +2

Confidence: Low

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks: 2019 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (3-1) at Seattle Seahawks (3-1)

It’s not unusual for favored teams to struggle the week before Thursday Night Football, as favorites cover the spread only at about a 43.6% rate all-time in that situation. The Seahawks took care of business last week in Arizona, winning by 17 as 5-point favorites, by far their biggest win of the season after their first two came by a combined 3 points. However, the Rams fell flat, losing at home to the Buccaneers by 15 as 9-point favorites. 

It’s not entirely surprising the Rams lost that game though, even aside from it being before a short week. The Buccaneers have shown signs of being a much improved football team under Bruce Arians and the new coaching staff, while the Rams had not been terribly impressive during their 3-0 start, winning week 1 by 3 against a banged up Cam Newton in a game in which the Rams recovered all 4 fumbles, winning by week 2 against a Saints team that lost Drew Brees to injury in the first quarter, and then winning by a touchdown in Cleveland in a game the Browns had a chance to tie at the end. 

What is surprising is how the Rams lost. Their offense was the concerning unit through the first 3 weeks of the season for the Rams, slowed by an offensive line that did not look nearly the same without the two starters they lost this off-season, while their defense actually ranked 5th in first down rate allowed through 3 games at 31.52%, led by Aaron Donald and a now healthy cornerback duo of Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, ranked 4th in first down rate allowed through 3 weeks at 30.73%, with an upstart young defense coordinated by Todd Bowles and led by breakout star Vita Bea, but got inconsistent play from quarterback Jameis Winston and the offense. Somehow, despite both teams playing strong defense through the first 3 weeks of the season and having shaky offenses, the Rams and Buccaneers combined for 95 points in a 55-40 Rams loss. 

It’s hard to know what to make of that game, especially since the Rams were likely not playing their best game before the short week. It’s also tough to predict how teams will respond on a short week. On top of that, I have this calculated line at Seattle -1, which means we’re not getting any real line value either way with this line being at Seattle -1.5. For those three reasons, this is going to be one of my lowest confidence picks of the week, but I’d take the Rams if I had to, for the half point of “line value.” Both teams have been shaky in their 3-1 starts, but the Rams still have the more complete roster.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Los Angeles Rams 23

Pick against the spread: LA Rams +1.5

Confidence: None

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: 2019 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (2-1) at Arizona Cardinals (0-2-1)

The Seahawks picked up their first loss of the season last week at home against the Teddy Bridgewater led Saints, but they actually had a better first down rate differential last week than they had in either of their two wins. They won their first two games of the season by a combined 3 points and had an even first down rate differential through 2 games. Last week, they lost by 6 points despite a +3.47% first down rate differential because they allowed a couple of return touchdowns, which swung the game on two snaps. 

Relatively healthy compared to the rest of the league, with defensive end Ezekiel Ansah back in the lineup after missing the first two games of the season, the Seahawks are an above average team that is well positioned in the NFC if they can remain healthy. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have yet to win their first game and rank just 29th in first down rate differential through 2 games. However, I actually like the Cardinals’ chances of catching the Seahawks off guard a little bit this week, because the Seahawks are in a terrible spot. 

Not only do the Seahawks have to play the Rams next week, they have to do so in 4 days on Thursday Night Football. Favorites are 56-77 ATS since 2012 before Thursday Night Football and road favorites are just 24-50 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs, which the Seahawks likely will be (+2.5 on the early line). This is an obvious look ahead spot for the Seahawks, so even though we’re not getting any real line value (I have this line calculated at Seattle -5), the Cardinals are worth a small bet this week. They likely won’t be getting the Seahawks’ best effort and they will be desperate to get their first win against a divisional rival. They’re a competent enough team to keep this close and possibly pull the upset.

Seattle Seahawks 30 Arizona Cardinals 27

Pick against the spread: Arizona +5.5

Confidence: Medium

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks: 2019 Week 3 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (1-1) at Seattle Seahawks (2-0)

The Seahawks are 2-0, but they’ve been far from impressive, winning those two games by a combined 3 points, despite facing a Bengals team that was demolished the following week by the 49ers and a Steelers team that lost starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to an injury in the first half. In first down rate differential, the Seahawks are at an even +0.00%. Their good luck continues as they now get to face a Saints team that is without starting quarterback Drew Brees for 6 weeks, but the Seahawks could still have a hard time covering as 4.5 point home favorites.

The Saints still have a strong supporting cast around the quarterback and a pair of backup quarterbacks in Teddy Bridgewater and Taysom Hill that Sean Payton and the coaching staff like and can build a game plan around. Even without Brees, I have the Saints ranked just behind the Seahawks in my roster rankings, so we’re getting some line value with the Saints at +4.5. There’s not enough here to bet the Saints confidently, but they should be the right side.

Seattle Seahawks 23 New Orleans Saints 20

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +4.5

Confidence: Low