Steelers

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2016 Week 7 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (5-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2)

The Patriots really lucked out by getting the Steelers at a time in which they’re incredibly banged up. The biggest injury is the one that has Ben Roethlisberger out for at least this week and likely several weeks. Instead, backup Landry Jones will start in his absence. The dropoff from Roethlisberger to Jones is as big as any starter to backup dropoff in the NFL. It’s not just Roethlisberger though, as the Steelers are also missing defensive end Cameron Heyward, their top defensive player, and starting right tackle Marcus Gilbert. This line moved from even on the early line last week to 7.5 in favor of the visiting New England Patriots this week, primarily as a result of the Roethlisberger injury, but also as a result of how poorly their defense played in Miami last week without Heyward. That might be a little bit too much of a line movement, so I’m taking the Steelers, but I’m not confident at all.

New England Patriots 27 Pitsburgh Steelers 20

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +7.5

Confidence: None

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins: 2016 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) at Miami Dolphins (1-4)

One of my favorite things to do as a bettor is go against significant week-to-week line movements, as they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. This game has one, as the Steelers were 4.5 point road favorites on the early line last week, but are now favored by 8. It makes some sense why the line would move significantly, as the Dolphins lost at home to the Titans last week, while the Steelers got their second straight big victory, beating the Jets 31-13. However, the line movement is still way too much and we’re getting a lot of line value with the Dolphins at 8 as a result. Despite that, the public is still all over the Steelers. I also love going against the public when it makes sense, as they always lose money in the long run.

The Steelers’ last two wins came by large margins, but both were at home. Now they’re on the road, where it’s much tougher to come away with big wins. The Steelers especially have had trouble on the road against seemingly inferior opponents in the Mike Tomlin era, as they are just 9-21 ATS as non-divisional road favorites since Tomlin arrived in 2007. In their last road game, they lost 34-3 in Philadelphia as 4 point road favorites. The Dolphins are not nearly as good as the Eagles, but they’re still good enough to keep it close against a Pittsburgh team that could overlook them, especially with a huge game against the Patriots next week. That game could easily be a major distraction.

The Steelers also come into this game pretty banged up, more banged up than most realize. They’ll be without defensive end Cameron Heyward, arguably their best defensive player, for the first time this season, while right tackle Marcus Gilbert and middle linebacker Ryan Shazier remain out with injuries. Also out is wide receiver Markus Wheaton, while fellow wide receiver is questionable with a hand laceration and could be limited even if he goes. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are getting healthier, as their top-3 offensive lineman (Branden Albert, Laremy Tunsil, and Mike Pouncey) are all healthy at the same time for the first time all year. Having their entire offensive line back should help this offense immensely and gives them a good chance to have a bounce back offensive performance, especially with Pittsburgh missing Heyward. I like the Dolphins a lot this week.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against the spread: Miami +8

Confidence: High

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New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2016 Week 5 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (1-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)

The Steelers slipped up week 3 in Philadelphia, losing 34-3, but bounced back in a huge way last week, blowing out the Chiefs 43-14 on Sunday Night Football. That Philadelphia game was likely a fluke. The Eagles are a good team, but when we look back at the Steelers’ season that 31 point loss is going to look like a major outlier. They’ve always had issues with non-divisional road games against seemingly easier opponents in the Mike Tomlin era, but they have one of the most talented rosters in the league, especially with Le’Veon Bell back from injury and suspension. Here they are 7.5 point home favorites over the Jets, which seems reasonable.

They’re also in a much better spot than the Jets, as they have an easy trip to Miami on deck, while the Jets have an equally tough opponent next week when they head to Arizona, where they are likely to be at least 6+ point underdogs once again. Teams are 46-72 ATS since 2012 as 6+ point underdogs before being 6+ point underdogs again, as teams tend to not be as focused as they need to be to keep it close with a tough opponent when they have another tough game on deck. Meanwhile, teams are 82-60 ATS before being 4+ point road favorites and the early line has the Steelers as 4.5 point favorites next week against the Dolphins. There’s not quite enough here for me to put money on the Steelers (that will change if this line happens to fall below a touchdown tomorrow morning), but they should be the right side.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 New York Jets 17

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh -7.5

Confidence: Low

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Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2016 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (2-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)

The Steelers lost last week in Philadelphia 34-3, their biggest loss since 1989. It was also just the 15th time since 2003 that a favorite lost by 31 points or more. Obviously, the Steelers should not have been 4 point road favorites in Philadelphia, but that’s more so because the Eagles have been an underrated team all year, rather than Pittsburgh being a bad team. In fact, Philadelphia +4 was my Pick of the Week last week for that exact reason. The Steelers should be able to bounce back this week against Kansas City, especially with arguably the best running back in the NFL, Le’Veon Bell, returning from suspension this week. In fact, teams are 91-54 ATS off of an ATS loss of 28 or more since 2002. Teams tend to be overlooked, underrated, and embarrassed in that situation.

Unfortunately, this line still reflects that the Steelers should be able to bounce back this week. Despite the big loss, this line only moved from 6 to 5 in the past week. If this line were 4 or fewer, I’d be comfortable putting money on the Steelers, but it’s hard to be confident in them as 5 point favorites, as about 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer. Bell is coming back this week, but they’re missing a key starter on both sides of the ball with guard Ramon Foster and linebacker Ryan Shazier expected to be out for this one. They should still be the right side, but this is a low confidence pick.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Kansas City Chiefs 17

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh -5

Confidence: Low

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2016 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-0)

The Eagles were at the top of my underrated teams list coming into the season, with a pre-season over/under of just 6.5 wins. Obviously the quarterback situation complicated matters, especially with Sam Bradford getting traded a week before the season started and rookie Carson Wentz being the week 1 starter. However, I thought they were easily the most talented team in the NFC East around the quarterback, particularly on defense, where they were getting a significant upgrade in leadership with Chip Kelly hire Billy Davis getting fired and Jim Schwartz, one of the best defensive coordinators in the league, coming in.

So far, through 2 games, they’ve exceeded even my expectations, winning both games pretty easily and currently ranking 7th in rate of moving the chains differential (RMCD). Granted, neither the Browns or the Bears are a tough opponent, but it can be easy to slip up against bad teams and the Eagles took care of business and dominated both games. They’re the only team in the league to win each of their first 2 games by 10 points and their +34 point differential is just behind New England, who has played an additional game. Their defense has been one of the better defenses in the league, masking their weakness at cornerback with good safety play and good front 7 play, while rookie quarterback Carson Wentz has been very impressive thus far. He doesn’t have great skill position talent around him, which limits this offense, but they do have a strong offensive line, especially with Lane Johnson being allowed to play until the results of his PED suspension appeal.

Given that, it’s confusing why they’re getting 4 points here at home. The Steelers are one of the better teams in the league, but the Eagles are still not getting the respect they deserve from the oddsmakers and I’ll keep betting them until the oddsmakers start making better lines. It’s also worth noting that the Steelers seem to have a habit of slipping up against inferior non-divisional opponents on the road, going 9-20 ATS as non-divisional road favorites in the Mike Tomlin era, dating back to 2007.

They got a big win week 1 in Washington in that situation, beating the Redskins 38-16 as 3-point road favorites, but the Eagles are better than the Redskins and that was week 1 anyway, which is a weird situation. The Steelers were focused in their first game of the season, but could easily be less than fully focused here week 3, after a big win over division rival Cincinnati and with another big conference game (Kansas City) on deck. This has trap game written all over it and I’m happy to take the 4 points with the underrated Eagles, especially since 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer. The money line is also a good value at +160, as this line should be around a pick em.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Upset Pick +160

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +4

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2016 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (1-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0)

The Steelers got a huge 38-16 win in Washington on Monday Night Football week 1, led by an offense that moved the chains at an 82.35% rate. They seem to have picked up right where they left off last season when Ben Roethlisberger was healthy. In his 12 starts last season, the Steelers moved the chains at a 75.00% rate, which would have been 5th best in the league over the whole season. Add in a solid defense and they’re a very formidable opponent once again this season. On top of that, teams tend to carryover the momentum from a big Monday Night win into the following week, as teams who win by 21+ on Monday Night Football are 34-15 ATS the following week since 2002.

Despite that, they’re favored by just a field goal here at home. The Bengals were one of the better teams in the league last season, especially before Andy Dalton went down for the season with a broken thumb week 14, but are not the same team this season. They lost two of their top-3 wide receivers (Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu) in free agency, as well as a pair of starters in the secondary (Leon Hall and Reggie Nelson). On top of that, they’re without talented tight end Tyler Eifert, talented linebacker Vontaze Burfict, first round pick William Jackson, and fourth round pick Andrew Billings with injury, after barely having any injuries outside of the quarterback position last year.

This line suggests these two teams are even. I disagree. I think the Steelers are better by a significant amount and, in a great spot coming off of a huge Monday Night Football win, are likely to win by a field goal or more. As long as this line is right at a field goal, this is my Pick of the Week. In some places, this line is 3.5. I’d still put money on 3.5, but it’d be a smaller play considering how many games are decided by exactly a field goal (1 in 6). I’d suggest paying to get -3 if you can get it at -125 or better.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Cincinnati Bengals 17

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh -3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Redskins: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at Washington Redskins (0-0)

Here’s another line I don’t understand. The Steelers are favored by 3 points on the road, which might not seem like a lot, but it means they have to win by more than 3 points to cover, and 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer. It’s also the equivalent of being about 8 or 9 point favorites at home and suggests the Steelers are about 6 points better than the Redskins, which doesn’t make much sense. The Redskins aren’t a great team, but they have a solid squad, while the Steelers are at less than 100% to start the season, missing #2 wide receiver Markus Wheaton, tight end Ladarius Green, and running back Le’Veon Bell.

This line should be much closer to even, so I love getting the full field goal with the Redskins. The Steelers also have never been great at these non-divisional road games against seemingly inferior opponents in the Mike Tomlin era. Tomlin is a great coach overall, but his teams have historically not gotten up for in “trap games” like this against unfamiliar opponents, as the Steelers have gone 8-20 ATS as non-divisional road favorites since Tomlin took over as head coach in 2007. This might end up being a push because of how common field goal games are, but I like the Redskins chances to keep it at least within a field goal and likely win outright. I think the money line at +135 is also a good value.

Washington Redskins 27 Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Upset Pick +135

Pick against the spread: Washington +3

Confidence: High

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Pittsburgh Steelers 2016 NFL Season Preview

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Quarterback

There were some pretty impressive quarterback performances in 2015, with guys like Tom Brady, Cam Newton, Carson Palmer, and Russell Wilson all posting insane numbers, and Ben Roethlisberger was just as good as any of them, finishing 3rd among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus. Roethlisberger threw 16 interceptions, but other than that put up huge statistical numbers, completing 68.0% of his passes (4th in the NFL) and averaging 8.40 YPA (3rd in the NFL). He joined Russell Wilson as the only quarterbacks in the NFL to finish in the top-5 in both completion percentage and YPA and finished 2nd in QBR, with a career best 76.9.

Perhaps Roethlisberger’s value was most felt when he was off the field, as they moved the chains at a 75.00% rate in the 12 games he played (which would have been 5th best in the NFL over the whole season), as opposed to 63.64% in their other 4 games. Even when Roethlisberger was on the field, he was often playing hurt, which makes his season even more impressive. Perhaps most impressive was when he returned to the field against Cleveland the week after suffering a 4-6 week foot injury and played one of his best games of the season.

Roethlisberger is going into his age 34 season, but he’s playing as well as he ever has. Not only did he have an incredible year in 2015, but he also finished 3rd among quarterbacks in 2014, both career bests. Though the move was widely criticized as being a bad fit at first, Ben Roethlisberger has worked well with offensive coordinator Todd Haley and put up some very good numbers over the past 2 seasons. He’s completed a combined 67.5% of his passes for an average of 8.25 YPA, 53 touchdowns, and 25 interceptions, all well above his career averages. If he can stay healthy, he could have an incredible year in 2016.

Health is the obvious key. Roethlisberger has never had any major injuries, playing at least 12 games in every season in the league, but always ends up missing time for one reason or another. 21 games missed in 12 seasons in the league is not bad at all, but he’s also only played all 16 games three times in those 12 seasons. It’s definitely worth noting that two of those three 16-game seasons were 2013 and 2014 and that he takes significant fewer hits than he used to early in his career.

He still plays an aggressive style and is one of the toughest players in the league, but has improved pass protection around him and gets the ball out quicker in Todd Haley’s offense. Roethlisberger only took 20 sacks last season, so, as banged up as he was by the end of last season, you can’t blame it on him taking too many sacks. The Steelers will obviously pray he stays healthy, as Landry Jones remains as the primary backup quarterback and he struggled mightily in the first action of his career in 2015.

Grade: A

Offensive Tackle

Though the Steelers have a solid overall offensive line, they did enter the off-season with a hole at left tackle. Kelvin Beachum was great there in 2014 and for the first half of 2015, but then tore his ACL and was replaced by Alejandro Villanueva, a 2010 undrafted free agent who was underwhelming in his first starting experience. Beachum signed with the Jaguars this off-season and the Steelers only signed veteran Ryan Harris and drafted LSU offensive tackle Jerald Hawkins in the 4th round. Hawkins is likely a year away at best, while Harris wasn’t any better than Villanueva was in 2015. He has more experience, with 70 career starts, but he’s going to his age 31 season, so, with experience, comes age and it’s unclear how much he has left in the tank. Villanueva seems like the favorite to keep the job.

Beachum wasn’t the only Steeler starting offensive lineman to suffer a major injury, as center Maurkice Pouncey ended up missing the whole season with a broken leg that required 7 total surgeries. He’s supposedly back to 100% now, but he’s been on the field for just 17 of 48 possible games over the past 3 seasons thanks to that broken leg and a torn ACL. Pouncey is only going into his age 27 season and was Pro Football Focus 6th ranked center in 2014, but repeated lower body injuries take a toll on a player. He may not be that good again this season, but he’s graded out above average in every healthy season he’s been in the NFL and I’d expect him to do so again in 2016, barring another injury.

While the Steelers did not re-sign left tackle Kelvin Beachum, leaving Villanueva to start there, they did keep left guard Ramon Foster and they got him on a great deal, 9.6 million over 3 years. Foster has made 76 of 80 starts in the past 5 seasons and has graded out above average in 4 of them, including 12th in 2013 and 18th last season. His age is beginning to become a concern, as he’s going into his age 30 season, but there’s no reason he couldn’t have gotten more elsewhere. He may have taken less to stay. Even if he didn’t, it’s a steal for Pittsburgh.

On the other side is a guard that is going to cost the Steelers a lot more to keep, as right guard David DeCastro, a 2012 1st round pick, is one of the best young interior offensive linemen in the league. Still only going in his age 26 season, and the final year of his rookie deal, DeCastro has shaken off a bad rookie year knee injury to make 47 starts in the last 3 seasons and has finished in the top-19 among guards on Pro Football Focus in all 3 of those seasons. The Steelers will likely try to extend him before free agency and the franchise tag may be an option to keep him off the open market if it comes to that.

Rounding out the offensive line is right tackle Marcus Gilbert, another solid player. A 2011 2nd round pick, Gilbert has made 62 starts in 5 seasons in the league and has graded out above average in 4 of those seasons, including 23th among offensive tackles in 2014 and 28th among offensive tackles in 2015. The big 6-6 329 pounder has only ever played right tackle in the NFL and doesn’t have the lateral quickness to move over to the left side; he barely played left tackle in college. That’s unfortunate because left tackle is the most important position on the offensive line and is currently a position of weakness for the Steelers, but it’s a strong offensive line otherwise.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

The quarterback position is obviously the most valuable in the NFL, so Ben Roethlisberger is definitely the Steelers’ offensive MVP, but there might not be a non-quarterback as valuable to an offense as Steeler wide receiver Antonio Brown is to this offense. Together with Roethlisberger, they are a borderline unstoppable combination. In the 12 games Roethlisberger played last season, Antonio Brown caught 119 passes for 1599 yards and 10 touchdowns, a ridiculous 159/2132/13 pace over 16 games, which would shatter multiple records. He’s unlikely to quite put up those numbers this season, but the all-time record of 1964 receiving yards set 4 years ago by Calvin Johnson is certainly in reach if both Brown and Roethlisberger stay healthy.

Even with Roethlisberger missing time last season, Brown still finished with 136 catches for 1834 yards and 10 touchdowns. He’s no one-year wonder either as he’s played all 48 games in the past 3 seasons and has averaged 125 catches for 1677 yards and 10 touchdowns per season. Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked wide receiver in 2015, Brown has finished in the top-3 in three straight seasons and is the most dominant receiver in the league right now. The closest thing we’ve seen to Jerry Rice, Brown is simply uncoverable in the modern, spread out game and, still only going into his age 28 season, he has a chance to put up absurd career numbers and break a lot of records.

Brown could see even more targets and be an even bigger part of this offense this season because of off-season losses around him. Unlike on the offensive line, where the Steelers get center Maurkice Pouncey back from injury, in the receiving corps, the Steelers lost #2 wide receiver Martavis Bryant and starting tight end Heath Miller this off-season. The latter played well last season, but would have been going into his age 34 season this season, so his retirement isn’t a huge deal.

Bryant, however, was a promising young wide receiver who looked poised for a breakout year in his 3rd year in the league in 2016, before failing his 3rd drug test in as many years and being suspended for at least a year. A 2014 4th round pick by the Steelers, Bryant flashed on 306 snaps as a rookie, averaging 2.75 yards per route run and scoring 8 touchdowns on 26 catches and then caught 50 passes for 765 yards and 6 touchdowns in 11 games in 2015. He was going to be a much bigger part of their offense in 2016 than Miller.

To order to try to replace Bryant, the Steelers will start 4th year player Markus Wheaton opposite Brown, with 2nd year player Sammie Coates likely as the 3rd receiver. Coates has incredible upside and profiles similar to Martavis Bryant at 6-1 212 with 4.43 wheels, but was limited to just 60 snaps as a 3rd round rookie in 2015. The early off-season reports have been good, but he’s still really raw. Markus Wheaton, meanwhile, is experienced, with 19 starts in the past 2 seasons, and isn’t a bad starter at all, grading out above average in both of those seasons.

However, Wheaton is an unspectacular player going into the final year of his rookie contract, so the Steelers are probably hoping that Coates can push him to start outside and replace Bryant, but that seems unlikely. Most likely, Wheaton will start outside and move to his natural position on the slot in 3+ wide receiver sets, with Coates coming in as the 3rd receiver and playing outside. The Steelers also like 2nd year undrafted free agent Eli Rogers, even though he didn’t play a snap as a rookie, and he could also see snaps in 3-wide receiver sets. A natural slot receiver, he’d line up between Brown and Wheaton in that situation.

Miller they replaced with free agent with Ladarius Green, though it’s possible he never plays for them, as he didn’t practice all off-season and reportedly may have to retire because of lingering headaches from concussions. Green was drafted in the 4th round by the Chargers in 2012 and quickly became the heir apparent to aging future Hall-of-Fame tight end Antonio Gates, but Gates is somewhat remarkably still the starter in San Diego, going into his 14th season with the team, so Green signed in Pittsburgh on a 4-year, 20 million dollar deal as a free agent this off-season. He was expected to be the starter, but that’s up in the air now.

Even as the #2 tight end, Green actually played 665 snaps last season for the Chargers because they had so many injuries and he graded out above average for the 3rd straight season. He doesn’t come over completely inexperienced, though prior to 2015 he had never played more than 370 snaps in a season. If healthy, he’ll be a good replacement for Miller. Miller was a solid pass catcher, but never put up huge numbers and was primarily valuable as a run blocker at 6-5 256. The 11-year veteran Miller’s best receiving numbers season was probably 2012, when he caught 71 passes for 816 yards and 8 touchdowns.

Green is a great pass catcher when healthy, though the 6-6 237 pounder isn’t nearly as good as a blocker. Second year player Jesse James, who flashed on 211 snaps as a 5th round rookie last season, is the #2 tight end and would start in Green’s absence. He has upside, but is probably best as a #2 blocking tight end, so the Steelers are obviously hoping Green can suit up for them. If he can’t, they may be able to reclaim some or all of the 4.75 million dollar signing bonus they gave him this off-season, if they can prove that medical information was withheld. With Bryant and Miller gone and Green hurt, Antonio Brown will be targeted very often this season.

Grade: B

Running Backs

Roethlisberger, Beachum, and Pouncey weren’t the only Steeler starters on offense to miss time in 2015, as running back Le’Veon Bell was limited to just 6 games by a 2-game suspension and a knee injury that ended his season week 9. His healthy return should be huge for this offense, as Bell has been arguably the best running back in football over the past 2 seasons when healthy, though his return will be delayed by another 3-game suspension. The 2013 2nd round pick has rushed for 1917 yards and 11 touchdowns on 403 carries (4.76 YPC) in 22 games in the last 2 seasons, while adding 107 catches for 990 yards and another 3 touchdowns through the air.

Bell was Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked running back in 2014 and was #1 through week 9 last season before tearing his meniscus. Even coming off the injury, he figures to pick up right where he left off when he returns week 4, still only going into his age 24 season and his 4th year in the league. Going into the final year of his rookie deal, he’ll be in for a big payday if he can stay healthy, stay out of trouble, and run like he can this season. He’ll be an obvious candidate for the franchise tag next off-season.

The biggest reason why the Steelers moved the chains so easily even without Bell for most of the season was veteran backup running back DeAngelo Williams turning the clock back, rushing for 907 yards and 11 touchdowns on 200 carries (4.54 YPC) and adding 40 catches for another 367 yards. Part of that was the offensive line, but he still finished 8th among running backs on Pro Football Focus on his own. Williams was released by the Panthers following a 2014 season in which he played just 6 games and averaged 3.53 yards per carry, but he bounced back in a huge way in 2015. He’s the oldest running back in the NFL, going into his age 33 season, but has quietly averaged 4.75 yards per carry in his career and could still be effective in a smaller role with Bell back. He’ll be the starter for the first 3 weeks of the season and you can do a lot worse than him. Bell and Williams are arguably the best running back duo in the NFL.

Grade: A

Defensive Line

Even with the Steelers’ offense banged up and not performing as well overall as they did in 2014, the Steelers still won 10 games and made the playoffs. That’s mostly because of an improved defense, which finished 12th in rate of moving the chains allowed in 2015. With their offense pretty set, the Steelers have used a lot of high draft picks on defense in the past few years, including their first 3 picks this off-season. Two of those picks who have really paid off for the Steelers are Cameron Heyward and Stephon Tuitt. The two starting 3-4 defensive ends, Heyward and Tuitt finished 10th and 14th respectively among 3-4 defensive ends on Pro Football Focus in 2015.

Tuitt struggled as a 2nd round rookie in 2014, finishing 40th among 47 eligible 3-4 defensive ends on Pro Football Focus, but had a breakout year in 2015. He’s talented enough to continue playing at a high level going forward and his best football could still be ahead of him, still only going into his age 23 season, but he is a one-year wonder. Heyward, on the other hand, is not. The 2011 1st round pick has played in all 48 games over the past 3 seasons and has finished in the top-19 among 3-4 defensive ends in all 3 seasons, maxing out at 6th in 2014. The Steelers wisely locked him up for 59.2 million over 6 years last off-season, as he’s probably their best defensive player.

The Steelers also added South Carolina State’s Javon Hargrave in the 3rd round, as depth was an issue on the defensive line in 2015, but he could easily struggle as a rookie. Heyward and Tuitt will command the lion’s share of the snaps again anyway, so it shouldn’t be a huge issue. Hargrave could also see snaps at nose tackle at 6-1 309, where he’ll compete with Daniel McCullers to replace departed free agent Steve McClendon. McClendon wasn’t a great player, but McCullers has played just 215 snaps in 2 seasons in the league since going in the 6th round, so they’re very inexperienced at the position now. It’s a weakness on an overall strong defensive line.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

Heyward is one of six former 1st round picks on Pittsburgh’s defense, including 4 linebackers. At outside linebacker, it’s Jarvis Jones (2013) and Bud Dupree (2015). Despite having a pair of recent high draft picks, the Steelers’ best outside linebacker last season was still veteran James Harrison, a 2002 undrafted free agent who is somehow still going strong, even though now he’s the oldest defensive player in the NFL. Going into his age 38 season, his abilities could certainly fall off a cliff quickly and it’s really, really tough to rely on players in their late 30s, but he’s graded out above average in all 9 seasons in Pro Football Focus’ history, including 6th among 3-4 outside linebackers on 714 snaps last season. He may not get into the Hall-of-Fame when it’s all said and done, but he deserves to. The Steelers will obviously be hoping he can keep it up and hold off father time for another season.

The Steelers will also be hoping that Jones and Dupree can be better this season, as neither has lived up their first round rookie billing yet. Dupree was just a rookie last season, but he was horrible, finishing 109th out of 110 eligible edge defenders on Pro Football Focus. It’s hard to call him a bust this early in his career, but he’s certainly not off to a good start. Jones, on the other hand, you can call a bust, as the Steelers declined his 5th year option for 2017, even though it was guaranteed for injury only, making 2016 his contract year. It was probably the right move though, as Jones does have a history of injuries, missing 12 games in 3 seasons in the league. He’s also graded out below average in all 3 seasons in the league and was limited to just 453 regular season snaps in 2015, despite playing a career best 15 games.

Arthur Moats is also in the mix for snaps, so Jones could easily be 4th in snaps played at the position for the 2nd straight season. Moats’ 554 regular season snaps in 2015 were a career high, but has graded about above average in 3 of 6 seasons in the league, specifically 2012-2014, and graded out just below average in 2015, outplaying Jones. He’s a solid rotational player for the Steelers, but little else. The Steelers will need Harrison to continue playing at a high level, Dupree to break out, or, less likely, Jones to break out, if they want this to be an above average group in 2016.

At middle linebacker, the Steelers are starting the other two former 1st round picks in this linebacking corps, Lawrence Timmons (2007) and Ryan Shazier (2014). However, they also both struggled in 2015, finishing 87th and 64th respectively among 97 linebackers on Pro Football Focus. Timmons has had better years, grading out above average in 6 of 9 seasons in the league and finishing 11th among middle linebackers as recently as 2014. He’s going into his age 30 season, so his best days might be behind him, but he still has bounce back potential.

Shazier does not have bounce back potential, as he struggled on 260 snaps as a rookie in 2014, before struggling last year on 667 snaps. He’s also missed 11 games with injury in 2 years in the league. Still only going into his age 24 season, he still has good upside, but the Steelers need him to take a step forward in 2016. It’s a linebacking corps with high upside, but that upside is all unlikely to be capitalized on. With the ancient James Harrison as easily their best linebacker, there isn’t a sure thing in the group.

Grade: C+

Secondary

The 6th former 1st round pick that’s expected to play a large role for the Steelers on defense this season is this year’s top pick, Miami’s cornerback Artie Burns. He didn’t have an obvious rookie role when the Steelers drafted him, with Ross Cockrell and William Gay playing well last season and 2015 2nd round pick Senquez Golston returning from an injury that cost him his entire rookie season. However, Golston is injured again and is not expected to return until late in the season, if at all, after breaking his foot this off-season. That locks Burns into at least a top-3 role with Cockell and Gay, though he could struggle. Widely regarded as raw and a reach, Burns received just a 5th round grade from Pro Football Focus before the draft. That may prove to be an exaggeration, but he figures to struggle as a rookie. If he pans out for the Steelers, it’ll be long-term as he just turned 21.

Cockrell and Gay, meanwhile, both graded out above average last season, so both will be hard to unseat. Cockrell was the better of the two last season, finishing 27th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus in a breakout season. A 4th round pick of the Bills in 2014, who played just 11 snaps as rookie before being a final cut last September, Cockrell had the Bills kicking themselves for letting him go. He made just 7 starts last season (684 snaps) and is still a one-year wonder, but he could continue to play at a high level in 2016 and is penciled into a starting role.

Gay, meanwhile, has quietly been a solid cornerback for years, making 92 starts in the past 8 seasons and grading out above average in 6 of those 8 seasons. Aside from a disastrous 2012 season in Arizona, Gay has been a very dependable starter for several years. He’s also never missed a game in 9 years in the league and, even going into his age 31 season, he’s not at the point where his age is a serious concern. The Steelers made a great move this off-season, keeping him on 3-year, 7.5 million dollar deal. He’ll likely keep his starting job and play the slot in sub packages, with Burns and Cockrell playing outside.

Burns isn’t the only rookie defensive back competing for a job in the secondary, as 2nd round rookie Sean Davis could start at safety. Following the legendary Troy Polamalu’s retirement, veteran Will Allen filled in admirably in 2015, but is no longer with the team, leaving them to choose between 2013 4th round pick Shamarko Thomas, who has played just 216 snaps in 3 seasons in the league (including just 23 in 2014 and 2015 combined), and the rookie Davis, a converted collegiate cornerback and also a reach. It figures to be a position of weakness regardless of who wins the job.

Michael Mitchell fortunately remains as the other starting safety, following a strong 2015 season in which he finished 24th among safeties on Pro Football Focus. Unfortunately, Mitchell has been inconsistent throughout his career, grading out below average in 4 of 7 seasons. He’s proven to be a late bloomer though, making 46 of his 55 career starts in the past 3 seasons, and grading out above average in 2 of those 3 seasons. Coming off of arguably the best season of his career, he might not be quite as good again in 2016, but should have another solid season. He’s probably the best defensive back on an underwhelming secondary.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Steelers had one of the best offenses in the league in 2014 (3rd in rate of moving the chains), but fell to 10th in 2015, largely as a result of injuries. Fortunately, their defense stepped up, allowing them to make the playoffs for the 2nd straight season, but ultimately lost a close one in Denver in the playoffs, a game they played without top receiver Antonio Brown, who was concussed. Injuries have already been a problem this off-season for the Steelers, as Senquez Golson and Ladarius Green could miss the entire season. On top of that, suspended wide receiver Martavis Bryant is out for the year, while running back Le’Veon Bell’s return from a torn meniscus will be delayed by a 3-game suspension. That being said, they’re still a talented team and they play in a wide open AFC where no team is without major flaws, so they’ll be in the mix once again, as long as quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is healthy.

Prediction: 10-6 1st in AFC North

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos: 2015 AFC Divisional Pick

stevenlourie 2015 Divisional Round NFL Picks, 2015 NFL Picks, Broncos, NFL Picks, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-6) at Denver Broncos (12-4)

Pittsburgh entered the post-season as a trendy sleeper pick to go all the way, thanks to a high flying offense led by arguably the best quarterback/pass catcher duo in the NFL in Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown. They finished 9th in rate of moving the chains differential and moved the chains at a 75.00% rate in the 12 games that Ben Roethlisberger played, as opposed to 63.64% in the 4 games he didn’t. Also in those 12 games, Antonio Brown caught 119 passes for 1599 yards and 10 touchdowns, an unbelievable 159/2132/13 pace over 16 games by a player who once again finished the season as Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked wide receiver. He might be the most valuable offensive player in the league, excluding quarterbacks.

The Steelers won on the road in their first playoff game last week, but they may have won the battle, but lost the war. Antonio Brown will have to miss this game with a concussion, one that, ironically, was suffered on the hit that drew the personal foul penalty that started the sequence of events that led to the Steelers’ improbable late comeback, moving Pittsburgh from mid-field to easy field goal range quickly, with time running out. On top of that, Ben Roethlisberger will play this week despite torn ligaments in his throwing shoulder. The gutty effort is commendable, but it’s unclear how well he’ll be able to throw the ball downfield or if he’ll even be able to finish the game.

Roethlisberger and Brown share the injury report with running back DeAngelo Williams, who will miss his 2nd straight game with injury. He was already filling in for Le’Veon Bell, who has been on IR since week 8 with a knee injury, leaving the Steelers with undrafted 2nd year player Fitzgerald Touissant and journeyman Jordan Todman at running back. Also on IR since mid-season is left tackle Kelvin Beachum, who’s been out since week 6 with a torn ACL,while center Maurkice Pouncey has been out all year with a broken leg. Suddenly, the Steelers’ sleeper hopes seem a lot slimmer.

However, I have no idea why they’re 9 point underdogs in Denver. The Broncos might be the #1 seed, but they have their own problems, especially at quarterback, where neither veteran Peyton Manning nor the inexperienced Brock Osweiler have been able to seize control of the job. Manning played horribly to start the season before going down for close to 2 months with a foot injury, but Osweiler did not impress in his absence and was benched for Manning mid-game week 17. Manning led the comeback effort to clinch the #1 seed, but most of the Broncos’ yardage after he entered the game was on the ground, so it’s tough to know if the 39-year-old future Hall-of-Famer actually has anything left in the tank. Regardless, he’ll get the start this week.

They’ve moved the chains at a 68.66% rate in Osweiler’s 6 starts, a 67.49% rate in Manning’s 8 starts, and a 64.71% rate in the 2 games where they’ve both played. Osweiler’s number looks a little better, but most, if not all, of that can be attributed to a running game that’s recently improved. Any way you look at it, the Broncos have struggled to move the ball this season, almost no matter what, thanks to poor quarterback play, an inconsistent running game, and a weak offensive line. Despite being the #1 seed, the Broncos rank just 11th in rate of moving the chains differential. Their 12-4 record is kind of a farce because they have just 3 wins by more than a touchdown, so I don’t know why Pittsburgh couldn’t keep this one close to. On top of that, home teams in the divisional round are just 8-16 ATS since 2001 against a team that is coming off of a road win in the wild card round. Give me the 9 points.

Denver Broncos 17 Pittsburgh Steelers 13

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +9

Confidence: High

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2015 AFC Wild Card Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 NFL Wild Card Picks, Bengals, NFL Picks, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (12-4)

This is the game that I have the least strong opinion on. The Bengals rank 5th in rate of moving the chains differential on the season, while the Steelers rank 9th, but the Steelers have been far better offensively in the 12 games where Ben Roethlisberger has led them in pass attempts, as opposed to their other 4 games when he was hurt. In those 12 games, they moved the chains at a 75.00% rate, as opposed to 63.64% in those other 4 games. On the flip side, the Bengals will be without starting quarterback Andy Dalton for essentially the 5th straight game, as he went down with a broken thumb early in the Bengals’ week 14 home loss to the these Steelers. In their last 4 games, they’ve moved the chains at a mere 70.25% rate, as opposed to 76.19% through their first 12 games.

This line would have seemed too high if it was a field goal because the Bengals are essentially at full strength aside from Dalton and have arguably the most talented roster in football top to bottom. However, at 2.5, I’m going to take the Steelers. I have Pittsburgh winning by a field goal exactly. AJ McCarron is just too limited of a quarterback to be picked to beat a strong team like the Steelers, as talented as his supporting cast here. The Steelers, with Roethlisberger, have one of the best offenses in football and their defense is solid. It’s a no confidence pick though.

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Cincinnati Bengals 20

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh -2.5

Confidence: None

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