Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 17 NFL Picks, Browns, NFL Picks, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6) at Cleveland Browns (3-12)

The Steelers lost last week as huge road favorites in Baltimore, but they get a 2nd chance this week and I like their chances of bouncing back this week as 11 point favorites in Cleveland. The Browns rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Steelers rank 9th. That doesn’t suggest an 11 point line is appropriate, but the Steelers are better than their rank because they’ve moved the chains at a 75.53% rate in the 11 games Ben Roethlisberger has played, as opposed to 63.64% in the 4 he missed.

Cleveland, meanwhile, is on their 3rd quarterback of the year, as Austin Davis will make his 2nd start of the season, in place of an injured Johnny Manziel. Manziel was playing decent in recent weeks, while Davis really struggled in his first start of the season a few weeks back and I’m not expecting a lot out of the Browns this week, especially since Head Coach Mike Pettine and GM Ray Farmer are expected to be fired after the game. I can’t be confident in Pittsburgh, but they’re my pick.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh -11

Confidence: None

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens: 2015 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 16 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Ravens, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5) at Baltimore Ravens (4-10)

The Steelers are in a great spot here. While the Ravens head to Cincinnati to play the Ravens next week, the Steelers go to Cleveland to face the Browns, a far easier opponent. The early lines have the Ravens as 10 point underdogs next week, while the Steelers are 9.5 point favorites. Favorites of 6+ are 83-43 ATS since 2012 before being favorites of 6+ again, as superior teams tend to take care of business and win by a big margin when they don’t have any upcoming distractions.

On the other side, underdogs of 6+ are 42-70 ATS since 2012 before being 6+ underdogs again, for the opposite reasons. Combining the two, favorites of 6+ are 56-34 ATS since 2008 before being favorites of 6+ again, when their opponent will next be 6+ point underdogs again. On top of that, teams are 56-99 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 2010, and 49-27 ATS before being road favorites of 7+, over that same time period. With two tough divisional games in a two weeks span, the Ravens could easily have trouble covering against a Steelers team that has two easy divisional games in a two week span.

There are three reasons why I’m not confident in the Steelers though. The first is that the Ravens are in kind of a good spot as well, as home underdogs off of a loss as home underdogs are 76-53 ATS since 2002 and the Ravens lost as home underdogs against the Chiefs last week. The second is that the public is all over the Steelers and I hate going with sides that are heavily backed by the public, as the public always loses money in the long run. The third is that this line might be too high at 10.5.

There wasn’t a line last week because we didn’t know who would be starting at quarterback for the Ravens (and frankly we still don’t, but any differences between Ryan Mallett, Matt Schaub, and Jimmy Clausen in terms of their ability to lead this offense are negligible), but if there was, it probably would have required a significant line movement to get us to this 10.5 point line and I love fading significant line movements whenever it makes sense, as they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play.

The Ravens rank 28th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Steelers rank 8th. The Steelers are even better than that suggests, as they’ve moved the chains at a 75.87% rate in the 10 games where Ben Roethlisberger plays, as opposed to 63.64% in the 4 games where he hasn’t. The Ravens, meanwhile, are worse than their rank suggests, as the amount of key players the Ravens have lost for the season have really piled up as the season has gone on.

They’ve lost wide receiver Breshad Perriman, wide receiver Steve Smith, outside linebacker Terrell Suggs, center Jeremy Zuttah, offensive tackle Eugene Monroe, quarterback Joe Flacco, running back Justin Forsett, and tight end Crockett Gillmore for the season with injury. In the 4 games since losing Flacco and Forsett, they’ve moved the chains at a 65.00% rate, as opposed to 68.37% in their previous 10 games. It’s still hard to see how we get a line of 10.5 though, as there are only about 4 or 5 games per year in which a team is favored by double digits on the road. I’m going with the Steelers still because they’re in such a great spot and have shown the ability to score at will in recent weeks, but this is a no confidence pick.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Baltimore Ravens 13

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh -10.5

Confidence: None

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Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 15 NFL Picks, Broncos, NFL Picks, Steelers, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (10-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5)

The Steelers are on fire right now. They’ve been fantastic since Ben Roethlisberger came back from injury. They lost to Cincinnati and Seattle, but both of those games were close and both of those opponents are very tough. They also beat Cincinnati in the rematch last week (though they were definitely helped by Andy Dalton and Tyler Eifert going down with injury), beat Oakland, and blew out the Colts (45-10) and Browns (30-9).

Prior to Roethlisberger going down, they lost in New England (another close loss to a tough opponent), blew out the 49ers (43-18) and beat the Rams. In the 9 games Roethlisberger has played, the Steelers have moved the chains at a 75.83% rate, as opposed to 63.64% in the 4 games he missed. When he’s healthy, this is one of the better offenses in the NFL and their defense is better than it was last season. They rank 9th in rate of moving the chains differential and are even more talented than that suggests.

I’d go as far as to argue they’re a top-5 team (remember, they were leading the Bengals in Cincinnati even before Dalton and Eifert went down), but this line is out of control. The Steelers, favored by 4.5 last week in the early line, are now favored by a whole touchdown. I love fading significant line movements whenever it makes sense and I think it does here. The Broncos are a good team as well, ranking 8th in rate of moving the chains differential, so we’re getting line value with them.

The Broncos did lose at home to the Raiders last week and I feel like a lot of the line movement was because of that loss, but the Broncos held the Raiders to negative yardage in the first half and 8 first downs in the whole game (as opposed to 10 punts) and won the rate of moving the chains differential 57.12% to 47.64%. The Broncos lost by a field goal because they turned it over twice (while the Raiders didn’t) and fumbled in their own end zone (for a safety). They’ll be fine going forward.

They’re also healthier this week. Middle linebacker Danny Trevathan will return from a 1 game absence and outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware is in his 2nd game back, after missing 5 games. The Broncos have a great defense, one capable of slowing down the Steelers’ offense more than arguably any other team because they have great cornerbacks who can match up with the Steelers’ talented wide receivers. I’m not too confident in the Broncos, but they should be the right side.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Denver Broncos 13

Pick against the spread: Denver +7

Confidence: Low

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 14 NFL Picks, Bengals, NFL Picks, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (10-2)

The Steelers had a big week last week. Not only did they big win, 45-10, over a competent Indianapolis team, but the Seattle Seahawks won big (38-7) on the road in Minnesota, against a solid Vikings team, so the Steelers’ loss the week before to the Seahawks looks a lot better now. The Steelers have been playing much better football since Ben Roethlisberger returned from injury. They rank 10th in rate of moving the chains differential and have moved the chains at a 75.65% rate in the 8 games Ben Roethlisberger has played, as opposed to 63.64% in their 4 games without Roethlisberger.

However, I feel like this line is getting too carried away, with the Steelers as mere 2.5 point favorites in Cincinnati. That’s significant because about 1 in 6 games are decided by a field goal exactly and it means that the Steelers are seen as the better of these two teams. That seems to overlook that the Bengals are legitimately one of the best teams in the NFL (even missing cornerback Adam Jones), ranking 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential. They beat the Steelers 16-10 in Pittsburgh a few weeks back and that was when Roethlisberger was healthy. This line seems to forget that. The Bengals are also in a great spot, as the early line has them favored by 7 in San Francisco next week. Teams are 31-14 ATS before being 7+ point road favorites since 2012. The Bengals are 10-1-1 ATS on the season and seem to be getting undervalued here again. I’d put money on them winning by at least a field goal, as the better team, without an upcoming distraction.

Cincinnati Bengals 27 Pittsburgh Steelers 20

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 13 NFL Picks, Colts, NFL Picks, Steelers, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (6-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5)

Matt Hasselbeck is 4-0 as the Colts’ starter and the Colts have moved the chains at a 73.60% rate in his 4 starts, as opposed to 69.66% in Andrew Luck’s 7 starts. Certainly getting Luck back healthy for the stretch run and playoffs is very important because, at his best, he’s way better than Hasselbeck, but Luck hasn’t played well so far this year and it’s definitely been nice for them to have a capable game manager backup quarterback like Hasselbeck this year. The Colts’ defense has also been better than it has been in recent years, though losing talented rookie defensive end Henry Anderson for the season a couple weeks ago hurts. He was a big part of why they improved. The Colts are also missing left tackle Anthony Castonzo and middle linebacker Jerrell Freeman, also key players.

The Steelers rank 16th in rate of moving the chains differential, but have moved the chains at a 75.00% rate in the 7 games that Ben Roethlisberger has played, as opposed to 63.64% in their other 4 games. However, they’re far from completely healthy around him, missing running back Le’Veon Bell, center Maurkice Pouncey, and left tackle Kelvin Beachum with serious injuries, three players who were key to the Steelers’ strong offense last season. Of course, if Roethlisberger continues to play like he did last week in Seattle, it might not matter that they’re missing so much talent around him, but, then again, their improved defense looked pretty bad last week.

Considering the Colts rank 14th in rate of moving the chains differential and have played better when Hasselbeck has played, this line seems high at a touchdown, even with the Colts also banged up. The Colts are also in a better spot, as they go to the lowly Jaguars next week (where they’re expected to be 1 point road favorites), while the Steelers have to go to Cincinnati. Underdogs (like the Colts) are 167-98 ATS before being favorites (as the Colts will be next week) when their opponent will next be underdogs (as the Steelers will be next week). The Steelers could also easily be 6 point underdogs in Cincinnati, arguably the toughest game of their season, and teams are 49-83 ATS since 2002 as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point underdogs. If they were healthier, this would be a higher confidence pick, but I’d still put money on the touchdown with the Colts.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Indianapolis Colts 24

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +7

Confidence: Medium

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Seattle Seahawks: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 12 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Seahawks, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) at Seattle Seahawks (5-5)

The Seahawks are favored by 3.5 points here at home, where they are 21-4 straight up (outscoring opponents by an average of 11.38 points per game) in their last 25 games, since the start of the 2013 season. Over those 25 games, they were favored by fewer than 4 points just twice. They were favored by just 3 points at home over the Cardinals 2 weeks ago, a loss by a touchdown, but the Cardinals are much better than the Steelers, as the Steelers rank 12th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Cardinals are 1st.

The Steelers have been better offensively in games where Ben Roethlisberger plays, moving the chains at a 75.14% rate in the 6 games he’s played, as opposed to 63.64% in their other 4 games, but they’re far from healthy offensively, missing running back Le’Veon Bell, left tackle Kelvin Beachum, and center Maurkice Pouncey for the season. Those are 3 key starters from last year’s dominant offense. They looked good offensively in their 2 last games before the bye, but that was at home against Cleveland and Oakland. On the road in Seattle is much tougher and they could easily struggle, much like they did three games ago, at home for Cincinnati.

Seattle isn’t quite as good as they have been in recent years, thanks to poor offensive line play, but they’re better than their 5-5 record. Four of their five losses came by a touchdown or less and they’ve lost to teams like Green Bay, Arizona, Cincinnati, and Carolina. The Seahawks of years past definitely would have won a couple of those games, but the Seahawks still rank 6th in rate of moving the chains differential against a tough schedule.

They’re going to be missing a couple of players with injury, running back Marshawn Lynch and outside linebacker Bruce Irvin, but Irvin is largely a part-time player and rookie phenom Thomas Rawls has run much better than Lynch this season, as Lynch has been banged up all year . I’m confident in the Seahawks covering, especially since the public is all over the underdog. The only reason this isn’t my Pick of the Week is because close to 1 in 4 games are decided by a field or goal or less and I’m very worried about a backdoor cover. If this line does move down to a field goal, I may reconsider.

Seattle Seahawks 23 Pittsburgh Steelers 13

Pick against the spread: Seattle -3.5

Confidence: High

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Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 10 NFL Picks, Browns, NFL Picks, Steelers, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (2-7) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4)

Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger injured his foot last week against the Raiders and, though he’s gotten some limited practice in this week, the injury is typically a multi-week one and he’s not expected to play in this game against Cleveland, ahead of Pittsburgh’s bye next week. Landry Jones would start in his absence. That’s a big deal, as the Steelers have really struggled offensively this season without Roethlisberger. In the 3 games he’s started and finished, the Steelers have moved the chains at a 77.08% rate, as opposed to 66.48% in their other 6. Jones is better than Michael Vick, who was making starts earlier this season in Roethlisberger’s absence, but he’s still a clear downgrade under center.

It’s not just the Roethlisberger injury. The Steelers have lost running back Le’Veon Bell and left tackle Kelvin Beachum for the season with injuries, while Maurkice Pouncey has yet to play and may not return this season. That’s 4 key starters from last year’s dominant offense, which had next to no injuries. On the defensive side of the ball, James Harrison is expected to be out, which means the Steelers could also be without one of their top defensive players. The Browns have injuries too, missing cornerback Joe Haden, safety Donte Whitner, and left guard Joel Bitonio, but Haden and Whitner have missed significant time this year already and haven’t played well when on the field. The Steelers rank 18th on the season in rate of moving the chains differential, as opposed to 28th for the Browns, but, given all of their injuries, they should not be favored by 6 points here at home.

That’s relevant for more than the obvious reason. Good teams tend to beat up inferior teams going into a bye, as home favorites of 6+ are 59-20 ATS before a bye since 2008. However, small home favorites struggle going into a bye, probably because they get caught looking forward to the bye. Home favorites of 1-5.5 are 39-63 ATS going into a bye, over the same time period. The Steelers are favored by 6, but I think the logic of the latter trend applies better here. The Steelers are in a bad spot anyway, as teams are 29-49 ATS as home favorites off of a win by 1-3 points as favorites, since 2008. The Steelers won by a field goal as home favorites against Oakland last week. Despite that, the public is all over them and I love fading the public whenever it makes sense, as they always lose money in the long run. It makes sense here.

It also helps that the Browns are in their 2nd straight road game, following their loss in Cincinnati last week. Teams are 122-87 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 100-59 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 211-214 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.46 points per game, as opposed to 296-419 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.99 points per game. I’m taking the 6 points with confidence.

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Cleveland Browns 19

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +6

Confidence: High

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Oakland Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (4-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-4)

This line, Pittsburgh by 5 at home, suggests that the Steelers are measurably better than the Raiders. The Raiders rank 12th in rate of moving the chains, while the Steelers rank 18th, but that’s largely because the Steelers were without Ben Roethlisberger for 4 ½ games. In the 3 games that Roethlisberger has started and finished, the Steelers have moved the chains at a 77.08% rate, as opposed to 65.19% in their other 5 games, so obviously having him back from injury is huge. However, he didn’t look 100% in his first game back last week, so it’s hard to trust that he’s going to be 100% this week.

The Steelers are also really banged up on offense around him, missing left tackle Kelvin Beachum and running back Le’Veon Bell for the year and center Maurkice Pouncey indefinitely. All 3 of those players were huge parts of their dominant offense last season, an offense that sustained next to no injuries, which obviously hasn’t been the case this season. Their young defense has been better this year, ranking 13th in rate of moving the chains allowed, after ranking 25th last season, but it’s hard to trust that their offense is going to play well this week.

The Raiders, meanwhile, have had next to no injuries this season, though they did lose talented defensive lineman Justin Tuck for the season a few weeks back. Their defense hasn’t been measurably worse in the 2 games since, but they definitely do miss him, at least somewhat. They’re also in a bad spot, following a home upset win over the Jets last week, as teams are 59-103 ATS off of a win as home underdogs since 2010. For that reason, I’m taking the Steelers, but I’m not confident at all.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Oakland Raiders 20

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh -5

Confidence: None

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Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2015 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (6-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3)

The Steelers get a huge boost this week, getting Ben Roethlisberger back from injury, and it comes at a perfect time, with the undefeated Bengals coming to town. The Steelers moved the chains at an 81.25% rate in the first 2 games of the season, before Roethlisberger went down midway through week 3, and have moved the chains at a 65.19% rate in 5 games since. Both Michael Vick and Landry Jones were major downgrades from Roethlisberger, who was Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked quarterback before going down.

Roethlisberger’s supporting cast is also even better than it was in the first 2 weeks of the season. Running back Le’Veon Bell didn’t return from his suspension until week 3 (the game when Roethlisberger went down), while wide receiver Martavis Bryant didn’t return until week 6. Bell is arguably the best running back in the NFL, while Martavis Bryant is a talented 2nd year receiver who has played really well in the past 2 weeks. They’re still not at completely full strength, like they were for almost all of last season (when they ranked 3rd in rate of moving the chains), as center Maurkice Pouncey is still out, but this is still one of the most talented offenses in the league. As long as Roethlisberger is close to as good as he was before getting hurt, the Steelers’ offense will be tough to stop this week.

The Bengals could easily be up to the challenge, as they’re one of the best teams in the league, ranking 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential. Unlike the Steelers, they’ve had next to no injuries this season. That’s been huge for them, after all the injuries they had last season. They ranked 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential in 2013, the last time they were healthy, and now they’re back up there, only with a better record. They also get linebacker Vontaze Burfict back from injury for this one. It’s tough to know how much he’ll be able to contribute in his first game back from microfracture surgery, but he was one of the best linebackers in the league before he got hurt, so his return is notable.

The Bengals are in a tough spot though, as they have to turn around and play Cleveland on a short week next week. Favorites are 41-66 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football. Cleveland isn’t that tough of an opponent, but neither is the Steelers’ upcoming opponent, the Oakland Raiders, and they don’t have to play them on a short week. I’m also not sure the Bengals really deserve to be favored here, even if only by a point.

They’re obviously a very good team, but so are the Steelers now that Roethlisberger is healthy. Not only do they now have an explosive offense again, like they did last season, their defense is much improved. They ranked 25th in rate of moving the chains differential in 2014, but have ranked 13th thus far this season, picking up the slack for the offense, though having breakout 2nd year defensive end Stephon Tuitt out for this one hurts. Still, they have a very good chance to hand the Bengals their first loss of the season. I just wouldn’t bet on it.

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Cincinnati Bengals 20 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +1

Confidence: Low

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 7 NFL Picks, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-5)

Ben Roethlisberger has missed the last 3 games with injury, but he practiced some this week and has travelled to Kansas City for this game. He’s not expected to play, but the possibility that he is able to go is worth thinking about when taking a side in this one. He reportedly could talk his way into starting, but it sounds unlikely. That severely hurts the Steelers’ chances. The Steelers moved the chains at a 78.65% rate in the first 3 games of their season with Roethlisberger, but have moved them at just a 62.20% rate over the past 3 weeks.

They’ve gone 2-1 in those 3 games, but have lost the rate of moving the chains battle in all 3. They won at the last second in San Diego and could have easily lost by 10 if not for a Philip Rivers pick six, a long touchdown throw from Michael Vick, and 3 dropped Vick interceptions by the Chargers’ defense. With the exception of a few plays, they were dominated in that game. Last week, at home for Arizona, they only won because they won the turnover battle by 3, which is tough to rely on. Teams who win the turnover battle by 3, on average, have a turnover margin of +0.1 the following week.

Michael Vick was awful in Roethlisberger’s absence, but it’ll be 3rd string quarterback Landry Jones in this one, as Vick is hurt as well. The Steelers have called up Tyler Murphy from the practice squad, a sign that Roethlisberger is not expected to be active, and he should backup Jones. Jones played well in Vick’s absence last week, completing 8 of 12 for 168 yards and 2 touchdowns. It’s worth mentioning that the Cardinals were likely just caught unprepared for Jones and Jones had never attempted a pass in his career prior to last week, but he’s got a great offensive supporting cast around him and is an upgrade over Vick, who is done.

This one is really tough to predict, as a result of the Steelers’ quarterback situation. The Steelers’ defense has been better this season than last season, to compensate for their offense, but they’ll be without breakout star Stephon Tuitt in this one. On the other side, the Chiefs could be without starters Dontari Poe and Mike DeVito on the defensive line and are also without stud running back Jamaal Charles. They rank 28th in rate of moving the chains. It’s still hard to take the Steelers as just 3 point underdogs, but they’re the side I’m taking, especially with the Chiefs going into a London game next week. Teams are just 6-18 ATS before a London game all-time.

Kansas City Chiefs 17 Pittsburgh Steelers 16

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +3

Confidence: None

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