Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers at Arizona Cardinals: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (4-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2)

The Steelers’ defense has been alright this year, a noticeable improvement over last season, but their offense hasn’t nearly as good. Last year, they ranked 3rd in rate of moving the chains, but barely had anyone miss any time. They haven’t been as fortunate this season. They get wide receiver Martavis Bryant this week for the first time this season, after missing 4 games with suspension and 1 game with injury, but they’re still missing center Maurkice Pouncey and especially missing quarterback Ben Roethlisberger with injuries. The Steelers moved the chains at a 78.65% rate in the first 3 games under Roethlisberger, but a mere 61.40% rate in the last 2 games, despite facing Baltimore and San Diego, two defenses that haven’t exactly been powerhouses thus far this season.

The drop off at quarterback from Ben Roethlisberger to Michael Vick has been close to as big of a drop off at the position as you can get, so bad that Jon Gruden actually suggested that Vick be benched for 3rd string quarterback Landry Jones, who has never even looked good in the pre-season, during last Monday’s night’s telecast, before Vick made some plays down the stretch. This isn’t surprising. Vick remained unsigned late into the off-season after being utterly ineffective in limited action last season, completing 52.9% of his passes for an average of 4.99 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th worst ranked quarterback, despite playing just 281 snaps. No one played fewer snaps than him and graded out worse. The Jets moved the chains at a pathetic 64.44% rate in the games in which he played at least 50% of the snaps, even worse than when Geno Smith played, when they moved them at a 69.18% rate.

The Steelers won in San Diego last week, but they shouldn’t have, considering they moved the chains at a 61.54% rate, as opposed to 72.22% for the Chargers. The Steelers had long touchdown on offense, a pick six by the Steelers’ defense, multiple dropped interceptions by the Chargers, and still only won at the last second. If a couple plays go a little bit differently, the Chargers probably win that game by 10 or more. However, that hasn’t quite caused the Steelers to be completely overvalued by the odds makers and the public like I would have liked, as the odds makers have moved this line from 2.5 in favor of Arizona to 4.5 in favor of Arizona in a week and the public is still all over the Cardinals.

That’s because Arizona is coming off of a resounding 42-17 victory in Detroit last week, certainly an impressive performance, but a final score that was largely aided by a +6 turnover margin. Turnover margins are very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. Teams that have a +6 turnover margin, on average, have a turnover margin of just +0.4 the following week. The Cardinals won’t be able to rely on the turnover margin in this one.

Fortunately, they’ve been a great team aside from turnovers all year. They rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, despite not being one of the NFL’s several remaining undefeated teams. Even in their loss, a 2 point home loss against the Rams, they won the moving the chains battle 71.05% to 66.67% and only lost because they lost the turnover margin by 3. That was a week before they won the turnover battle by 6, a lesson in just how inconsistent something like turnover margin can be on a week-to-week basis. The one knock on Arizona is they haven’t really played anyone (New Orleans, Chicago, San Francisco, St. Louis, Detroit), but Pittsburgh isn’t a very good team with Vick under center, especially considering Vick has covered in just 5 of his last 23 starts, despite last week’s fluky victory. I expect another big win by the Cardinals and I’m still comfortable putting money on them, but I still wish this line was lower.

Arizona is one of six road favorites this week, all six of whom the public really likes and, aside from the Atlanta/New Orleans Thursday Night Game, when I took the Saints and they covered, I’m taking all of the road favorites. I hate doing that, but 3 of them are in their 2nd straight road game (Arizona, New England, Denver) which helps, 2 of them are going into a bye (Denver, Cincinnati), which helps, and Baltimore is mere 2 point favorites over the lowly 49ers, who have a brutally tough home game against the Seahawks on deck. Arizona is the pick here and I hope for a rare, big losing weekend by the sportsbooks.

Arizona Cardinals 23 Pittsburgh Steelers 13

Pick against the spread: Arizona -4.5

Confidence: Medium

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Pittsburgh Steelers at San Diego Chargers: 2015 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) at San Diego Chargers (2-2)

Those who follow me know I love to fade significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be overreactions to one week. This game features one of those, as the early line had San Diego favored by 6.5 and they’re now favored by 3.5. Normally I can understand why the line movement occurred (even if I don’t necessarily agree that it should have), but this time I actually don’t understand it at all. Why would this line move 3 points in Pittsburgh’s favor? Because they went to overtime against Baltimore? Because San Diego only beat Cleveland by a field goal? That doesn’t make any sense.

The Steelers rank 12th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Chargers rank 14th, so this line would definitely make sense if Ben Roethlisberger was healthy, but he’s not and will miss his 2nd straight game after injuring his knee week 3 against St. Louis. Michael Vick will start again and hasn’t played well in Roethlisberger’s absence, completing 24 of 32 and not throwing an interception, but only producing 163 yards and a touchdown, despite having a strong supporting cast around him.

That shouldn’t be a surprise. Vick remained unsigned late into the off-season after being utterly ineffective in limited action last season, completing 52.9% of his passes for an average of 4.99 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th worst ranked quarterback, despite playing just 281 snaps. No one played fewer snaps than him and graded out worse. The Jets moved the chains at a pathetic 64.44% rate in the games in which he played at least 50% of the snaps, even worse than when Geno Smith played, when they moved them at a 69.18% rate.

After the Steelers moved the chains at a 78.65% rate in their first 3 games of the season with Roethlisberger starting, they moved them at a 61.29% rate last week at home against Baltimore in Vick’s first start. Vick is also now 4-18 ATS since 2012, which is ridiculously awful, and he’s not getting better, going into his age 35 season now. He’s a massive downgrade from Roethlisberger, who was playing like arguably the best quarterback in the league before going down and this line should be at least a touchdown in San Diego, based on the difference in talent level between these two teams.

The Chargers do have their own injuries, as left guard Orlando Franklin and left tackle King Dunlap will be out for the 2nd straight game, while wide receiver Steve Johnson will join them, but they do get center Chris Watt back after a one game absence and tight end Antonio Gates back, after he missed the first 4 games of the season with suspension. Besides, their offense played fine last week against the Browns. The issue was their defense and they do have a very weak front 7, but I still like their chances of beating the Steelers by at least 4 points here in San Diego, especially with the Steelers also missing wide receiver Martavis Bryant and linebacker Ryan Shazier with injuries, in addition to Roethlisberger.

The Chargers also have a huge advantage because they’re a West Coast team at night playing an East Coast team. Teams tend to cover the spread about 65% of the time in that situation because, while this is essentially a late afternoon game for the Chargers, it’s a late night game for the Steelers. The only reason I can think for this line being so low is that the Chargers have to go to Green Bay next week, where they are expected to be 9 point underdogs, but the Steelers have to play the Cardinals next, which isn’t much easier. The Steelers are expected to be 2.5 point home underdogs in that one. There’s not even a lot of public action on the Chargers, so it’s more likely that this is just an inaccurate line by the odds makers than a trap line. With even action, I’m confident in the Chargers covering.

San Diego Chargers 24 Pittsburgh Steelers 16

Pick against the spread: San Diego -3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 4 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Ravens, Steelers, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (0-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)

The Ravens are 0-3 but none of their losses have come by more than a touchdown. Their loss in Oakland was bad, but Oakland doesn’t look quite as bad as they usually do, so that road loss doesn’t look so bad anymore, and they came close to beating both Denver and Cincinnati, who are among the best teams in the league. I had the Ravens as one of the better teams in the AFC going into the season and I still think they have playoff caliber talent, even with the likes of Terrell Suggs, Breshad Perriman, and Eugene Monroe out with injury. They have a weak receiving corps and haven’t been able to get a consistent running game going, but they have a strong offensive line, a solid defense, and a solid quarterback.

They also get a gift here as they are playing the Steelers without Ben Roethlisberger, who is expected to miss at least a month with a knee injury. That greatly increases the chances that the Ravens will avoid 0-4. Roethlisberger is one of the best quarterbacks in the entire NFL and had been playing especially well through the first 3 weeks of the season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked quarterback thus far.

Instead, it’ll be Michael Vick this week, as the Steelers go from one of the best starting quarterbacks in the league to one of the worst. Vick remained unsigned late into the off-season after being utterly ineffective in limited action last season, completing 52.9% of his passes for an average of 4.99 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th worst ranked quarterback, despite playing just 281 snaps. No one played fewer snaps than him and graded out worse. The Jets moved the chains at a pathetic 64.44% rate in the games in which he played at least 50% of the snaps, even worse than when Geno Smith played, when they moved them at a 69.18% rate. Vick is also 4-17 ATS since 2012, which is ridiculously awful, and he won’t get better, going into his age 35 season now. The line only adjusted 6 points for Roethlisberger’s injury. That’s not nearly enough.

Vick does have a much better offensive supporting cast in Pittsburgh than he did with the Jets. He’ll be able to lean on LeVeon Bell as both as a runner and a receiver out of the backfield, he has a solid offensive line in front of him, and he has arguably the best wide receiver in the game in Antonio Brown. However, Roethlisberger isn’t their only major absence from what was one of the least injured offenses in the league last season, as they are also missing wide receiver Martavis Bryant and center Maurkice Pouncey.

On top of that, the Steelers’ defense is a big problem. They ranked 25th in rate of moving the chains allowed last season and rank 19th through 3 games this season, despite a strong showing last week against the Rams’ hapless offense. They’ll also be missing linebacker Ryan Shazier for the second straight game and he’s one of their few defensive players who has played well this season. The Ravens have injury issues, but the Steelers are in a way worse spot than them injury wise.

Perhaps the Ravens will finally be able to establish their running game this week. They finished last season 7th in yards per attempt, but rank just 28th right now. The Ravens are also in a much better spot, with only a home game against Cleveland on deck, while Pittsburgh has to go to San Diego next week, a potential looming distraction that the Ravens don’t have. Teams are 78-54 ATS since 2012 as road favorites before being favored again if their opponent will be underdogs next week. All other road favorites are 60-82 ATS over that time period.

With all that in mind, I really like the Ravens as mere 2.5 point favorites here in Pittsburgh. The Ravens have historically not done as well on the road as they have at home in the John Harbaugh/Joe Flacco era, outscoring opponents by 10.08 points at home, but just 0.97 points on the road, and the public is on them pretty heavily, so it’s not a massive play, but I like the Ravens to win by at least a field goal, if not more, and finally get into the win column.

Baltimore Ravens 20 Pittsburgh Steelers 13

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Pittsburgh Steelers at St. Louis Rams: 2015 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 3 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Rams, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at St. Louis Rams (1-1)

Anyone who follows me knows I love to go against significant line movements, as they tend to be overreactions to one week. This game has one of those, as the Rams have gone from 2.5 point favorites to 2 point underdogs here at home in the past week. It’s easy to understand why. The Rams lost as favorites in Washington, while the Steelers destroyed the visiting San Francisco 49ers last week. However, that was still just one week. What about the Rams’ victory over the Seahawks in St. Louis week 1? That game made everyone overreact last week, moving the line in both the St. Louis/Washington and the Green Bay/Seattle game significantly, but now everyone seems to be overreacting the other way, as the public is on the road favorite here. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense and it does here.

The line movement is still within the field goal on either side, but it’s still significant. The Steelers have had troubling getting up for these seemingly easy non-divisional road games in the past, going 8-20 ATS as non-divisional road favorites since 2007. They also just don’t really deserve to be road favorites here. This line suggests the Steelers are 5 points better than the Rams, meaning they’d be -8 at home against the Rams. Well, they were just -5.5 at home for the 49ers. I know the Steelers blew the 49ers out, but that’s still just one week. The Rams aren’t a great team because they lack much on offense around the quarterback, but they still had one of the best defenses in the league last year, a unit that is led by arguably the best defensive line in football and a unit that has played well thus far this season, and they upgraded at the quarterback position by adding Nick Foles this off-season.

The Steelers have a good offense and will get even better on the offensive side of the ball with Le’Veon Bell back from suspension, but they’re still missing center Maurkice Pouncey and wide receiver Martavis Bryant from an offense that was basically injury free last season. Meanwhile, their defense remains a huge problem and one that won’t get better with both nose tackle Daniel McClullers and middle linebacker Ryan Shazier hurt. Those are two of the few bright spots thus far on a defense that has ranked 30th in rate of moving the chains allowed through 2 games, after ranking 25th last season. The Rams, on the other hand, are healthier than they’ve been all season, with both Todd Gurley and Brian Quick seemingly set to return, in some capacity, from injury this week.

On top of that, the Steelers are in a bad spot with a Thursday Night game against Baltimore on deck. That could easily be a distraction, especially with a short week up next. Teams are 41-62 ATS as favorites before Thursday Night Football since 2008. Considering the Steelers have typically overlooked weak non-divisional opponents on the road like this in the Mike Tomlin era, the Steelers could have a very tough team getting up for this game with a Thursday Night battle against their archrival on deck. This game screams trap game and I’m happy to take the points as long as I’m getting them.

St. Louis Rams 24 Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: St. Louis +2

Confidence: High

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San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2015 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 2 NFL Picks, 49ers, NFL Picks, Steelers, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (1-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1)

The 49ers had an impressive week 1 victory, beating the Vikings 20-3, but I still think they could end up being a 5 or 6 win team. It’s very possible that their week 1 play isn’t representative of how good they’ll be this season and that they were able to take advantage of a Minnesota team that isn’t as ready to take the next step as people think, after losing two key offensive linemen for an extended period of time (center John Sullivan and right tackle Phil Loadholt) before the season even started.

On paper, the 49ers just don’t look that good, after an 8-win season in 2014 and all they lost this off-season. They lost right tackle Anthony Davis, middle linebacker Chris Borland, middle linebacker Patrick Willis, and defensive end Justin Smith to retirement, left guard Mike Iupati, cornerback Perrish Cox, and cornerback Chris Culliver, outside linebacker Dan Skuta, and running back Frank Gore to free agency, and outside linebacker Aldon Smith and defensive end Ray McDonald with off-the-field issues.

They did add wide receiver Torrey Smith in free agency and they get cornerback Tramaine Brock, defensive end Glenn Dorsey, defensive tackle Ian Williams, and middle linebacker NaVorro Bowman back from injury. They have solid depth, good young players like running back Carlos Hyde, outside linebacker Aaron Lynch, and cornerback Kenneth Acker, and they should have fewer injuries this season, but this still isn’t a very good team.

Pittsburgh, meanwhile, won’t be as good offensively this season, after having the fewest offensive adjusted games lost in the league last season, already without center Maurkice Pouncey for an extended period of time with injury. They’ll especially struggle to maintain high level offensive play early in the season with stud running back LeVeon Bell and promising young wide receiver Martavis Bryant suspended. On the defensive side of the ball, they struggled week 1 against the Patriots, as they did all of last season.

However, I still think we’re getting line value with the Steelers as mere 6.5 point favorites here, especially with cornerback Brandon Boykin expected to play, after surprisingly missing the first game of the season. Boykin is one of the top slot cornerbacks in the NFL and only didn’t play week 1 because he was recently acquired in a trade from Philadelphia and hadn’t gotten the defense down yet. This line suggests that the Steelers are just 3.5 points better than the 49ers, which I disagree with. As long as the line stays under a touchdown, I’m comfortable putting money on Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh Steelers 28 San Francisco 49ers 17

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh -6.5

Confidence: Medium

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Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 1 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Patriots, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at New England Patriots (0-0)

I hate to start the regular season off with a no confidence pick, but I think that’s where I’m going here. I think Pittsburgh is overrated, after having the 4th fewest adjusted games lost to injury last season, including the fewest on offense. Their offense won’t be as good as it was last season, when they ranked 3rd in rate of moving the chains, especially early in the season as they are already without stud running back LeVeon Bell for 2 games with suspension, promising young wide receiver Martavis Bryant for 4 games with suspension, and Pro-Bowl caliber center Maurkice Pouncey for at least 2 months with a broken leg. Meanwhile, on defense, things should be bad once again.

However, I don’t love the Patriots in this game or anything. They have their own issues and also won’t be the same time this season. Tom Brady’s suspension for DeflateGate was thrown out in federal court, but Brady is still going into his age 38 season and their secondary remains a huge issue, following the loss of Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner, and Kyle Arrington this off-season. They also have their own key absences as wide receiver Brandon LaFell and center Bryan Stork will both miss at least a month with injury, while LeGarrette Blount is suspended for this game, leaving the Patriots’ thin on talent around Brady. I’d pick them if I had to and it’s worth noting that over the last 11 instances of a defending Super Bowl champion playing week 1 on a Thursday at home, they’ve won all 11 times and gone 8-3 ATS, but I’m not confident with them as touchdown favorites.

New England Patriots 30 Pittsburgh Steelers 20

Pick against the spread: New England -7

Confidence: None

Pittsburgh Steelers 2015 NFL Season Preview

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Quarterback

The Steelers made the playoffs last year for the first time since 2011, way back when Tim Tebow knocked them out of the playoffs. In 2012 and 2013, they went 8-8 both times, before winning 11 games and the AFC North in 2014. Oddly enough, the Steelers did not do it in traditional Steeler fashion, which is leading the way with their defense. Their defense ended this season ranked 25th in rate of moving the chains allowed. Instead, it was their high-powered offense, which finished 3rd in rate of moving the chains, that led the team to rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential, en route to the playoffs.

Ben Roethlisberger led the way at quarterback, completing 67.1% of his passes (a career high) for an average of 8.15 YPA, 32 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. That led to a quarterback rating of 103.3, 3rd in the NFL and the 2nd best of Roethlisberger’s career. Since 2007, the first year in Pro Football Focus’ history, he’s made 118 starts and ranked 4th, 26th, 6th, 6th, 7th, 7th, 11th, and 3rd in those 8 seasons respectively, leading up to last season’s career best. He joins Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers as the only quarterbacks to rank in the top-11 in each of the past 6 seasons.

In 159 career games, he’s completed 63.7% of his passes for an average of 7.88 YPA, 251 touchdowns, and 131 interceptions. A 2004 1st round pick, Roethlisberger is already going into his age 34 season, but plenty of good quarterbacks have continued that success into their mid-30s. The Steelers are betting on that, locking up their franchise quarterback for another 5 years and 99 million this off-season, ahead of his contract year.

Roethlisberger had a lot of help on offense and much of their improved offensive performance and even Roethlisberger’s improved numbers themselves weren’t solely the result of Roethlisberger’s improved play. Part of why he had such improved play around him is because literally no one got hurt. The Steelers finished the season 4th in adjusted games lost, including 1st in adjusted games lost on offense. Only 9 offenses since 2003 had as good of injury luck as the Steelers had last season. That’s unlikely to continue.

Roethlisberger himself could even get hurt. He’s played all 32 games on the last 2 seasons, but prior to that he had played all 16 games once in 9 career seasons. Part of the reason for his recent improved health is a much improved offensive line (more on that later). Part of it is the switch to Todd Haley’s quicker throw offense which, after some minor early kinks and major public criticism, has led to Roethlisberger having the best 3-year QB rating out of any stretch of his career. However, part of why he hasn’t been getting hurt lately is something that could regress to the mean. Even if Roethlisberger stays healthy for all 16 games, the same is not likely to be true about his supporting cast.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

The Steelers have not had any major injuries just yet, but they are already expected to be without one player for the start of the season. That player is Le’Veon Bell. That’s bad news because, when Bell got hurt in Pittsburgh’s week 17 game last season, knocking him out for the playoffs, it made the Steelers a noticeably different offense, leading to a home loss to the Baltimore Ravens in the first round. Bell is currently suspended for the first 3 weeks of the season for a marijuana and DUI arrest. He’s appealing to get the suspension reduced and it’s reportedly possible he only misses the opener against New England, but it’s another reminder that they likely won’t be bulletproof offensively again next season.

Bell’s importance to the Steelers wasn’t just proven in the Baltimore loss. It should have been evident all year, as the 2013 2nd round pick broke out as arguably the best running back in the NFL during the regular season, a big part of the reason for Pittsburgh’s offensive dominance. He’s still just a one year wonder, after averaging just 3.52 yards per carry as a rookie, but I think he was the best running back in the NFL last season, apologies to DeMarco Murray.

Murray obviously was the NFL’s leading rusher with 1845 yards, 484 more than Bell who was in 2nd with 1361. However, that’s largely because Murray had more carries, 392 to 290. Bell’s 4.69 YPC was very comparable to Murray’s 4.71, even though Murray ran behind a Dallas offensive line that ranked 2nd in run blocking grade on Pro Football Focus, while Pittsburgh’s ranked 9th. Murray was also much more useful on passing downs, grading out better in pass protection and pass receiving.

Bell’s 83 catches for 853 yards (basically wide receiver numbers) help make up for the difference in yardage totals between Bell and Murray, as Murray caught just 57 passes for 416 yards. Murray only finished with 55 more yards on 69 more touches. While Murray had the higher pure running grade on Pro Football Focus last season (still behind Marshawn Lynch though) Bell was Pro Football Focus’ #1 overall ranked running back. Even as a rookie when he averaged a low YPC, he still graded out above average overall, ranking 31st among running backs, largely because of 45 catches for 399 yards.

It’ll be tough to replace Bell when he’s out, as it was last season. That’s not just because Bell is so good. It’s also because his backups are so bad. Last season when Bell went down, the Steelers had to sign Ben Tate, on his 4th team in a 12-month period. Tate started in the playoff game, despite being signed just a few days prior. Tate had 5 carries in that game. Josh Harris had 9 and Dri Archer had 1. Harris and Archer were both rookies last season. Harris, an undrafted free agent, had 18 carries as a rookie (including playoffs), averaging 2.27 yards per carry. Archer, meanwhile, was a 3rd round pick with just 11 carries (including playoffs) as a rookie, averaging 3.54 yards per carry. The 5-8 173 pounder’s potential is, at best, Todd Haley’s new Dexter McCluster. Harris, meanwhile, has shown no signs that he’s remotely a starting caliber running back.

In need of a veteran presence, the Steelers signed DeAngelo Williams as a free agent this off-season. Bell to Williams is about as steep of a downgrade as you can get at running back. He was released by the Panthers this off-season, even though doing so only saved them 2 million immediately and he’ll be on their cap still for 2016, because of the fact that he is going into his age 32 season and coming off of a season in which he missed 10 games with injury and averaged just 3.53 yards per carry. The Steelers better hope that Bell is only suspended for one game. And even if he is only suspended for one game, the Steelers will have injuries offensively this season, something they just didn’t have to deal with last season until the worst possible time.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

The Steelers’ offense was led by their version of the triplets last season, Ben Roethlisberger, LeVeon Bell, and top wide receiver Antonio Brown. With Calvin Johnson nursing injuries last season, Brown took over the mantle of the best receiver in the NFL and, with Johnson getting older, it’s possible Brown keeps that title this season. Brown doesn’t win with height/weight/speed like Johnson at 5-10 186, but he has dependable hands, is the best route runner in the NFL, and is tough to take down in the open field.

Brown led the league in catches and receiving yards last season, catching 129 passes (2nd most in a single season in NFL history) on 178 targets (72.5%) for 1698 yards and 13 touchdowns on 638 routes run, an average of 2.66 yards per route run, 7th in the NFL among eligible receivers. His 5 drops give him a remarkably low drop rate and his 17 broken tackles were the 4th most in the NFL by a wide receiver. He’s not a one year wonder either, grading out 3rd at his position in 2013 (1st in pass catching grade), catching 110 passes on 159 attempts (69.2%) for 1499 yards and 8 touchdowns on 609 routes run, an average of 2.37 yards per route run, 7th among eligible receivers. He also ranked 7th among wide receivers overall in 2011, one of three 1000+ yard seasons in 5 years in the league.

Perhaps most impressively, Brown has caught at least 5 passes in 33 straight games (including playoffs), which demolished the previous NFL record of 19. Remarkably consistent, Brown has morphed into the top receiver in the NFL since Mike Wallace left Pittsburgh two off-seasons ago, proving the Steelers made the right choice by re-signing Brown to a 5-year, 43 million dollar extension 3 off-seasons ago and letting Wallace leave on a 5-year, 60 million dollar contract the following off-season. It was a risky move by the Steelers because Brown had only played 2 seasons in the NFL before he got the extension, but it paid off in a big way as that contract might be the best value in the NFL, not including rookie contracts. Only going into his age 27 season, Brown is under contract for 3 more years.

The Steelers have solid depth at the position too so Roethlisberger has plenty of options. Markus Wheaton was 2nd among wide receivers in receiving yards last season (4th on the team behind Brown, Le’Veon Bell, and tight end Heath Miller) with 53 catches for 644 yards and 2 touchdowns. After barely playing as a 3rd round rookie in 2013, Wheaton played 760 snaps in 2014 and graded out about average. He’s a decent complementary piece, but could see his role reduced in 2015 because the Steelers have a pair of freak athletes waiting in the wings.

One of those freak athletes is Martavis Bryant, who ran a 4.42 40 at 6-4 211 at the combine, but fell to the 4th round of the 2014 draft after widely being considered a top-2 round prospect by the media because of how raw he was. The Steelers snatched him up there and it seems to have paid off thus far. Bryant only played 306 snaps total as a rookie, but he definitely flashed big play ability, grading out above average and catching 26 passes for 549 yards and 8 touchdowns on 48 targets (54.2%). He did that despite only running 200 routes, an average of 2.75 yards per route run that ranked 3rd among eligible receivers, even better than Brown.

He’s still pretty unproven and he has a lot of things he needs to get better at, but his big play ability is real. Bryant should be better in 2015 and should be considered the favorite to start opposite Brown, with Wheaton moving into the 3rd receiver role. Bryant is still raw and likely won’t reach his potential until his 3rd year in the league, but he’s on a good track and the combination of his height/weight/speed opposite Brown could give the Steelers a deadly receiving duo in the future.

The Steelers other freak athlete at wide receiver is Sammie Coates, who ran a 4.43 40 at 6-1 212, before the Steelers made him a 2015 3rd round pick. He’s extremely raw and is no guarantee to even contribute in the way that Bryant did as a rookie, but he has great long-term upside and could eventually be the #3 receiver. For now, he’ll provide good depth as the 4th receiver, necessary because Justin Brown, the 4th receiver last year, struggled mightily when called on.

Mr. Dependable Heath Miller is still around, catching 66 passes for 761 yards and 3 touchdowns last season, 3rd on the Steelers behind Brown and Bell. The problem is he’s going into his age 33 season and the Steelers simply cannot count on him to play the position leading 1103 snaps he played last season. Somewhere in the 700-800 snap range is more appropriate for him at this stage of his career, but the Steelers’ only other capable tight end last season was Matt Spaeth, a pure blocker who played just 348 snaps last season. He’s also going into his age 31 season.

The Steelers used a 5th round pick on Jesse James as a result, but he’s far from being ready so, if Heath Miller gets hurt or declines significantly, the Steelers don’t have many options. Miller is also not the player he used to be, grading out slightly below average in each of the last 2 seasons, after grading out 2nd among tight ends on Pro Football Focus in 2011 and 15th in 2012. The Steelers’ lack of tight end depth is a problem, but it’s one that’s offset by good wide receiver depth.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

The triplets were obviously a big part of the Steelers’ offensive success last season, but, as is often the case, they also had a strong offensive line to make life easier, grading out 5th among teams in pass block grade on Pro Football Focus and 9th in run block grade. The best player upfront for them last season was left tackle Kelvin Beachum, who had a breakout 3rd year in the league. The 2012 7th round pick made 17 starts in 2012 and 2013, 11 at left tackle, 5 at right tackle, and 1 at center, but graded out below average in both seasons. However, in 2014, Beachum graded out 5th among offensive tackles, excelling in pass protection. He’s still a one year wonder, which is important to remember, but he’s a talented player. Going into the contract year of his rookie deal, he’s an extension candidate this off-season.

Right tackle Marcus Gilbert has the distinction of being the Steelers’ only real regular season injury on offense last season, missing 4 games. He was very much missed while he was hurt because his replacement, swing tackle Mike Adams, was once again horrendous. The Steelers are lucky they found Beachum in the 7th round in 2012 because Adams, their 2nd round pick that year, has graded out below average in all 3 seasons in the league, including 59th out of 76 eligible on 485 snaps in 2013 and 65th out of 84 eligible on 372 snaps in 2014. Gilbert, meanwhile, is a 2011 2nd round pick and he’s worked out better. He’s made 46 starts in 4 seasons in the league and, while last year was the best year of his career, when he graded out 23rd among offensive tackles, he’s graded out above average in 3 of 4 seasons in the league. The Steelers extended him last off-season ahead of the final year of his rookie deal, giving him a 5-year, 30 million dollar extension.

Gilbert and Adams are not the only offensive linemen the Steelers have used high draft picks on in recent years. The Steelers took Maurkice Pouncey in the first round in 2010 and David DeCastro in the first round in 2012. Only Adams hasn’t really worked out and Beachum made up for that. This has given the Steelers not only a talented offensive line, but a young offensive line. DeCastro’s career didn’t get off to a great start as he was limited to 138 snaps as a rookie in 2012 because of knee problems, but he’s made 31 starts in the past 2 seasons combined, grading out 14th in 2013 and 19th in 2014. The Steelers picked up his 5th year option for 2016 and they’re expected to try to sign him to a long-term extension over the next year or so.

Pouncey also suffered a major knee injury, tearing his ACL in week 1 of 2013 and missing the rest of the season, but, like DeCastro, he’s been able to persevere. The Steelers signed him to a then record 5 year, 44 million dollar extension last off-season, even though he hadn’t played since the ACL year, which shows how much they like this guy. He hasn’t been the top tier center that kind of money suggests and it was an overpay, especially off of the ACL tear, but he’s still a valuable member of this offensive line.

He’s made 62 starts in 5 seasons in the league, even though he lost basically all of 2013 to the ACL tear, and he’s graded out above average in every healthy season since he’s been in the league, maxing out at 6th overall among centers on Pro Football Focus in 2014, very good to see after an injury like he suffered in 2013. Only going into his age 26 season, Pouncey should have another strong season in 2015 and could even get better.

The only weak point on the offensive line was left guard Ramon Foster, who graded out slightly below average last season. He’s been better in the past though, grading out above average in 2011, 2012, and 2013, maxing out as Pro Football Focus’ 12th ranked guard in 2013. He’s made 60 of 64 starts over the past 4 seasons. Only going into his age 29 season, there’s bounce back potential for Foster. He’s a starting caliber guard either way though and if he’s your worst offensive lineman you’re doing pretty well. It’s a strong offensive line on a strong offense, but they won’t be bulletproof again this year and, when injuries strike, their untested depth will become tested, which could easily show up in the win/loss column.

Grade: A-

Defensive Line

As I mentioned earlier, the defense really didn’t play well last season, finishing 25th in rate of moving the chains allowed. While the offense should have more injuries this season, the defense won’t necessarily have more injuries, as they finished 17th in adjusted games lost, but you also can’t call injuries the reason why they played poorly last season. In fact, overall as the team, they finished 4th in adjusted games lost, something that should regress to the mean this season.

The reason why their defense was so bad last season is because their once dominant defense of a few years ago got old all at the same time and they didn’t do a good job of replacing players. Part of that is draft and free agent mistakes, but part of that is simply that the Steelers focused more of their resources on the offense over the past few years and it shows. Last season, they Steelers had 4 starters who were 30+ years old on defense. They only have one right now because three of them either retired or remain unsigned as free agents, but they also didn’t replace any of those guys so it should once again be a thin unit. Also gone is legendary defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau. LeBeau, going into his age 78 season, and the Steelers agreed to a mutual split (if you believe reports) and now he has an assistant job with Tennessee’s defensive staff.

Brett Keisel was one of those over 30 players. He graded out right about average last season on 451 snaps as a 3-4 defensive end, but was released anyway by the Steelers this off-season, ahead of his age 37 season. He hasn’t officially retired and isn’t ruling out playing again next season, but he’s drawn no known interest on the open market and I ultimately expect him to announce the end of his 13-year NFL career, all with the Steelers. Stephon Tuitt, a 2014 2nd round pick, was drafted with this situation in mind and he’ll take over as an every down player at 3-4 defensive end, after playing just 405 snaps as a rookie. The problem is he was horrible as a rookie, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 40th ranked 3-4 defensive end out of 47 eligible, despite the limited playing time. He’ll have to get a lot better in his 2nd year in the league.

Cameron Heyward will be an every down player opposite him. The 2011 1st round pick is one of the few bright spots of this defense. Heyward has graded out above average in each of the last 3 seasons, including the last 2 as a starter, making 32 of 32 starts. He graded out 19th among 3-4 defensive ends on Pro Football Focus in 2013 and then had the best year of his career in 2014, grading out 6th at his position. He’ll make a very reasonable 6.969 million dollars on his 5th year option in 2015 and the Steelers are expected to try to sign him to an extension this off-season, ahead of his contract year. He’s one they can’t afford to lose.

At nose tackle between Tuitt and Heyward, Cam Thomas and Steve McLendon will compete for the starting job. McLendon should win that job, after making 11 starts there last season and grading out above average. It’s very much a part-time role in Pittsburgh’s system and McLendon doesn’t get any pass rush, but he still graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 24th ranked defensive tackle last season on just 305 snaps. This is nothing new for McLendon. That’s been the book on him for the past few years, as the 2009 undrafted free agent has done a nice job carving out a niche in the NFL. He’s graded out above average in 4 straight seasons, but has never played more than 355 snaps in a season and has graded out below average as a pass rusher in each of the last 2 seasons.

That would put Thomas into a top reserve role at 3-4 defensive end, the role he played last season. It’s a better spot for him, but, after he played as poorly as he did last season, the Steelers should not be confident in him in any role he plays. Thomas graded out as Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked 3-4 defensive end last season. He’s only a rotational player, but he actually doesn’t play that many fewer snaps than McLendon. In fact, last season, he played more than McLendon, playing 443 snaps to his 305.

That’s partially because McLendon missed 4 games with injury and Thomas didn’t miss any, but it’s still a reminder that Thomas still plays a significant role for them on defense, as terribly as he played last season. The Steelers better hope he bounces back. While in San Diego in 2011 and 2012, he graded out above average on 395 snaps in 2011 and 404 snaps in 2012, playing both nose tackle and 3-4 defensive end at 6-4 330. However, he graded out as the 51st ranked defensive tackle out of 69 eligible in 2013 and then things got even worse in his first year in Pittsburgh. Thus far, it looks like he was a free agent bust on a 2-year, 4 million dollar deal, but the Steelers kept him at a 2 million dollar non-guaranteed salary.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

Jason Worilds used to be a talented young player for the Steelers defensively, like Cameron Heyward is now. A 2010 2nd round pick, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2013 and then 11th last season. However, foregoing a deal that would have been worth upwards of 40 million over 5 years, Worilds retired unexpectedly this off-season, ahead of his age 27 season. The Steelers likely weren’t going to be able to re-sign him as a free agent this off-season anyway for cap reasons, but it still a shocking move. It’s especially weird that he retired while James Harrison, who is going into his age 37 season, returned for his 13th (12 with the Steelers) NFL season in 2015. He’s the final remaining of the 30+ year olds on Pittsburgh’s defense, but he still played at a high level last season.

Harrison was out of the league to start last season, but he rejoined the Steelers for week 4 after they needed help at the rush linebacker position and he proved to be a huge pickup, grading out 10th at his position on just 439 snaps. No one played fewer snaps at his position and graded out better. He’s going into his age 37 season so the end of the road is right around the corner, but he proved last season that he still has something left in the tank. He has graded out above average in every season in Pro Football Focus’ history (since 2007), including last season and a 2013 season with the Bengals where he was Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker on just 383 snaps as a base run stopping outside linebacker. No one played fewer snaps and graded out better at the position that season, making it two straight seasons that could be said about him and at two different positions.

Harrison will rotate with three other players, including a pair of recent 1st round picks. One of those players is Jarvis Jones, a 2013 1st round pick who has all the looks of a bust through 2 seasons in the league. Jones fell to the Steelers at 17th overall because of injury concerns and he has played in just 23 of 32 games in 2 seasons in the NFL, playing just 646 snaps in 2013 and 237 snaps in 2014. He also hasn’t been very good when on the field, grading out below average in both seasons, which is why he was essentially benched for James Harrison down the stretch last season after returning from injury, playing just 11 snaps in week 16 and week 17 combined. It’s a little too early to write him off as a bust, but he’s entering a make or break 3rd season in the league.

The other recent 1st round pick at the 3-4 outside linebacker spot is Bud Dupree, a rookie who has great athleticism, but also a fair amount of bad tape against quality opponents. It could be a tough transition for the ex-Kentucky Wildcat. Arthur Moats will be the 4th outside linebacker. He did well on 344 snaps last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 17th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker despite the limited playing time, with no one playing fewer snaps and grading out better. Prior to last season, Moats, a 2010 6th round pick, spent the first 4 years of his career as a situational player in Buffalo, maxing out at 409 snaps, but grading out above average in each of the final 3 seasons, playing middle linebacker, outside linebacker, and defensive end. The 6-0 246 pounder isn’t that athletic, but he’s a decent pass rusher that’s strong against the run and a solid part-time player. He’ll see the majority of his snaps in base packages.

At middle linebacker, Lawrence Timmons is locked into one spot, as he has been since the Steelers drafted him in the 1st round in 2007. He’s played in 126 of 128 games since then and has generally been a very solid player, grading out above average in 6 of the last 7 seasons, including four top-10 finishes among middle linebackers on Pro Football Focus and three top-5 finishes. Last season, he graded out 11th and, only going into his age 29 season, he should have another solid season in 2015. Behind Heyward, he’s their best defensive player and arguably one of just two above average starters on this unit.

Opposite him at the other middle linebacker spot, the Steelers have a few options. Sean Spence made 8 starts in that spot last season, but he struggled on 510 snaps, grading out 41st among 60 eligible middle linebackers. The series of brutal knee injuries that cost Spence his first 2 seasons in the NFL entirely seem to have sapped the abilities of the 2012 3rd round pick. Vince Williams is another option. The 2013 6th round pick played just 253 snaps last season, but made 11 starts in 2013, though he was just a two-down run stopper and graded out below average on 405 snaps. Safety Troy Polamalu even played some linebacker last season, but he’s since retired (more on that later). Most likely, it’ll be Ryan Shazier in that spot. Shazier is a 2014 1st round pick who was limited to 260 snaps in 8 games last season thanks to injuries, grading out below average in the process. He got the week 1 start last year before the injuries though and it’s his job to lose right now.

Grade: C+

Secondary

As weak as the Steelers’ defense was last season, the secondary was arguably their weakest unit. William Gay played decently, grading out above average and ranking 31st among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. He’ll once again be their top cornerback in 2015. He’s definitely not a bad player, but he’s the type of guy where, if he’s your best cornerback, you’re probably in trouble. Gay, a 2007 5th round pick, started his career in Pittsburgh, grading out above average in 3 of 4 seasons from 2008-2011, but then he went to Arizona in 2012 and struggled mightily, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 105th ranked cornerback out of 113 eligible. That led to his release after one year and then he rejoined the Steelers, grading out above average again in 2013 and 2014. He’s not a great cornerback, but he’s a solid player and a valuable part of an overall weak Pittsburgh secondary.

Ike Taylor was a long-term Steeler cornerback, but he retired this off-season ahead of what would have been his age 35 season, after 12 years in the league, all with Pittsburgh. Taylor was a shell of his former self in his final few years so he won’t really be missed on the field. The Steelers used a 2nd round pick on Senquez Golston to replace him long-term, but the 5-9 176 pounder is undersized and best suited for the slot long-term. He could open the season as the #2 cornerback and move inside in sub packages with a 3rd cornerback coming in and playing outside, but, more likely, the #2 cornerback job will come down to BW Webb vs. Cortez Allen, with Golston slotting in as a 3rd cornerback, focused on the slot, as a rookie.

Between Webb and Allen, Allen should be the favorite, but that’s far from a guarantee. Allen was a 3rd round pick in 2010 and, after not playing much as a rookie, he graded out above average in 2012 and 2013 on 563 and 718 snaps respectively. That earned him a 5-year, 26 million dollar extension, but he bombed in the first year of that extension, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 103rd ranked cornerback out of 108 eligible on 463 snaps before getting benched week 8 and playing solely special teams the rest of the way.

The Steelers couldn’t really cut him this off-season so they brought him back and are expected to give him another shot as a starter, but that’s only because Webb doesn’t present much of a better alternative. Webb, a 2013 4th round pick, graded out below average as a rookie in 2013 with Dallas, playing 185 snaps, before getting cut by the Cowboys and signing with the Steelers. With Pittsburgh, he played just 4 snaps last season. He’s expected to be the 4th cornerback, which isn’t good news for a team whose #2 cornerback is coming off of an awful year and whose #3 cornerback is an undersized rookie.

At safety, the Steelers had another 30+ year old leave (along with Keisel and Ike Taylor) and that was long-time Steeler great and future Hall-of-Fame safety Troy Polamalu. Polamalu had a great 12-year career with the Steelers, grading out 5th overall among safeties as recently as 2013, but he retired ahead of his age 34 season this off-season, after a career that did have its fair share of injuries. To replace him, there will be a battle between the veteran Will Allen and the youngster Shamarko Thomas.

Thomas was a 4th round pick in 2013 with this situation in mind, but he hasn’t really been able to get onto the field over his first 2 seasons in the league, despite injuries ahead of him on the depth chart. After grading out below average as a rookie on 193 snaps, Thomas played just 2 snaps last season. Allen, meanwhile, played 310 snaps last season and made 4 starts when injuries struck, playing as the #3 safety ahead of Thomas on the depth chart. That would seem to make Allen the favorite, but the journeyman is going into his age 33 season, hasn’t played more than 548 snaps in a season in 8 years, and has only graded out above average once during that stretch. The Steelers might just prefer to see what the youngster has.

In the other safety spot, Michael Mitchell is locked into a starting role, going into the 2nd year of a 5-year, 25 million dollar deal that he signed with the Steelers last off-season. Mitchell started his career in Oakland as a 2009 2nd round pick, but graded out below average in 3 of 4 seasons there, maxing out at 508 snaps, which forced him to sign a very cheap one-year deal with Carolina for the 2013 season. It turned out to be a steal for the Panthers as Mitchell graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 33rd ranked safety on 14 games. The Steelers took a chance that he wasn’t just a one-year wonder, signing him to that aforementioned long-term deal after that 2013 season, their only real big-time free agent signing in the last few off-seasons. He made all 16 starts, but graded out below average, coming in at 62nd out of 87 eligible. He’s still a one-year wonder as an above average starter, but he’s still a decent starter and arguably the Steelers’ 2nd best defensive back in a weak secondary.

Grade: C

Conclusion

The Steelers won with good offense and lost with poor defense last season, something that should be the case again this season. Unfortunately, they could win a little bit less because their offense is going to have more injuries. The defense might be even thinner this season after the loss of Jason Worilds and Troy Polamalu so they can’t really afford even sort of slip up offensively. That might be inevitable though. Their roster isn’t as talented as Baltimore, who finished better in rate of moving the chains differential last season, and their schedule won’t be as easy as it was last season, when the AFC North got the sub-.500 NFC South. I think they’re more competing with Cincinnati for the 2nd spot in a tough division. As with all teams, I’ll have official win/loss records for the Steelers after I’ve done all team’s previews.

Prediction: 9-7 3rd in AFC North

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Pittsburgh Steelers re-sign OLB James Harrison

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Steelers, Uncategorized

Harrison was reportedly choosing between Pittsburgh and Tennessee. Even though his former defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau is now in Tennessee, Pittsburgh always seemed like the most logical choice for Harrison. Pittsburgh is the better of the two teams. They offer the easiest path to playing time, as he’d be stuck behind big ticket free agents Derrick Morgan and Brian Orakpo. Pittsburgh has a real lack of talent at 3-4 outside linebacker following Jason Worilds’ retirement and Harrison should be the starter opposite the inconsistent Jarvis Jones. A return to Pittsburgh also meant a return to the team where he’s played 10 of his 11 career seasons and would give him a chance to add to his Steeler legacy.

Given all of that, this is the right move by Harrison and a great move by the Steelers, who would have been stuck starting career reserve Arthur Moats opposite Jones with little to no proven depth at the position. Harrison gets added to an outside linebacker crew that should feature him, Jones, Moats, and likely an early round rookie. The Steelers’ depth problems at outside linebacker were why the Steelers re-sign Harrison last season in the first place. Harrison was out of the league to start last season, but he rejoined the Steelers for week 4 after they needed help at the rush linebacker position and he proved to be a huge pickup, grading out 10th at his position on just 439 snaps. No one played fewer snaps at his position and graded out better.

He’s going into his age 37 season so the end of the road is right around the corner, but he proved last season that he still has something left in the tank. He has graded out above average in every season in Pro Football Focus’ history (since 2007), including last season and a 2013 season with the Bengals where he was Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker on just 383 snaps as a base run stopping outside linebacker. No one played fewer snaps and graded out better at the position that season, making it two different seasons that could be said about him and at two different positions. Harrison will get more than the minimum this season, but he deserves it and the Steelers are still hardly breaking the bank for him. This deal is worth 2.75 million over 2 years with nothing guaranteed beyond a 500K signing bonus so it’s low risk and pretty much all upside.

Grade: A

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Pittsburgh Steelers extend QB Ben Roethlisberger

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Steelers, Uncategorized

Roethlisberger’s contract was originally scheduled to expire after 2015. This new deal will keep him in Pittsburgh through 2019 and pay him 99 million over those 5 years, with escalators that can make it worth up to 108 million. It’s a lot of money, obviously, but it’s the going rate for an average or better starting quarterback. If you have a quarterback that you want to keep long-term, you need to give him this kind of deal because you know that someone else will on the open market if you don’t, given how today’s NFL is. You just better hope that the quarterback you’re giving this deal of deal to is closer to Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees or Peyton Manning than they are to Jay Cutler, Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco or Colin Kaepernick.

I think Roethlisberger is closer to the former. Roethlisberger’s issue used to be injuries, as a result of his playing style. He rarely suffered significant injuries, but he played all 16 games just once in 9 seasons from 2004-2012. However, Todd Haley has implemented an offense that has more quicker, short throws and forces the ball out of Roethlisberger’s hand quicker, which has led to him playing all 32 games over the past 2 seasons combined. It took a little bit for him to be comfortable in the new scheme, with the new playing style, but he’s completed 65.7% of his passes for an average of 7.73 YPA, 60 touchdowns, and 23 interceptions over the past 2 seasons and is coming off of a season in which he had a 103.3 QB rating, 2nd best in his career.

Last season he was Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked quarterback. That’s the highest he’s ever ranked in their 8-year history, but he’s always been very solid, ranking 4th in 2007, 26th in 2008, 6th in 2009, 6th in 2010, 7th in 2011, 7th in 2012, and 11th in 2013. He’s one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL and this contract pays him appropriately. It might seem slightly concerning that this contract takes him through his age 37 season, but more and more quarterbacks have played well into their mid and late 30s over the past decade or so and the guaranteed money doesn’t run until that season. This is a good deal.

Grade: A

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Pittsburgh Steelers 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Steelers, Uncategorized

Positions of Need

Cornerback

Ike Taylor is done, as a free agent going into his age 35 season, after struggling in 2013 (98th out of 110 eligible cornerbacks) and missing 11 games with injury in 2014. They gave Cortez Allen a long-term contract in the off-season, but he struggled mightily before being benched and could be cut after just one year, a move that would save them 1.58 million on the 2015 cap. He was Pro Football Focus’ 103rd cornerback out of 108 eligible. William Gay was fine, but journeymen Brice McCain and Antwon Blake were a mixed bag. I expect they’re going to target cornerbacks early in 2015.

Outside Linebacker

Jarvis Jones was a first round pick of the Steelers’ in 2013, but he’s graded out below average in each of his first 2 seasons in the league, doing so on 646 snaps as a rookie and 237 snaps last year, when he missed 9 games (he also missed 2 games as a rookie). He’s still part of their long-term plans at outside linebacker, but he’s tough to count on and they need other players at the position as Jason Worilds and James Harrison are both free agents this off-season. The latter is going into his age 37 season.

Defensive End

Cameron Heyward was fantastic for the Steelers again last season, but they need help around him at the position. Stephon Tuitt and Cam Thomas were among the worst players at their position last season, grading out 40th and 47th respectively out of 47 eligible 3-4 defensive ends. Brett Keisel was better, but he’s going into his age 37 season. Tuitt was a 2nd round rookie last year so he could be better in 2015 and he remains a big part of their future, but they need to add another young guy at the position.

Safety

Michael Mitchell was signed to a 5 year, 25 million dollar contract last off-season and did a decent job in his first season in Pittsburgh. However, there’s uncertainty about who the long-term solution is next to him. Troy Polamalu is going into his age 34 season and the Steelers can save 6 million in cash and 3.75 million in cap space by cutting him this off-season. He could also outright retire. Polamalu is still a capable player, grading out above average last season for the 8th straight season, but he’s expensive, aging, declining (last season he ranked 48th out of safeties, worst since 2009 when he played just 5 games), and has missed 24 games over the past 6 seasons combined. He probably doesn’t have a lot of time left as a starter in Pittsburgh. Shamarko Thomas was drafted in the 4th round in 2013 as a potential successor, but he’s played just 195 snaps in 2 seasons, as he’s been unable to move ahead of Will Allen on the depth chart. Allen is going into his age 33 season. More youth needs to be added into the mix.

Running Back

The Steelers lost in the first round of the playoffs at home to the Ravens by a score of 30-17. The Ravens were a tough opponent and it’s possible they would have lost anyway, but it definitely hurt their chances of winning significantly when Le’Veon Bell got hurt towards the end of their week 17 win over the Bengals. That’s partially because Bell is so good (Pro Football Focus’ #1 overall running back last season), but it’s also partially because they have no depth behind him. The Steelers needed to sign Ben Tate the week before that game out of desperation. Tate actually got the first carry for the Steelers and his 7 touches were 2nd by a Steeler running back in that game behind Josh Harris’ 11. Tate isn’t a long-term solution and neither Josh Harris nor Dri Archer seem like the type of player who can be counted on to carry the load if Bell misses time. Harris was an undrafted free agent and had just 18 carries as a rookie, rushing for just 41 yards. Archer had even fewer carries as a rookie, carrying the ball 11 times for 39 yards. The 2014 3rd round pick might have a future role as a scatback, but the 5-8 173 pounder can’t carry much of a load. This is especially a concern considering Le’Veon Bell is facing a two game suspension to start 2015 for marijuana possession.

Key Free Agents

OLB Jason Worilds

Jason Worilds was Pro Football Focus’ 12th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2013, but he was a bit of a one year wonder so the Steelers used the transition tag on him, rather than giving him a long-term deal. Prior to 2013, the 2010 2nd round pick played a combined 979 snaps in his first 3 seasons in the league, maxing out at 501 in 2011. However, he graded out above average in 2 of those 3 seasons and he shed the one-year wonder label in 2014 in his 2nd full season as a starter, grading out 11th at his position. He heads into free agency off of back-to-back top-12 seasons as a 3-4 outside linebacker, having made 31 of 32 starts over those 2 seasons. He made 9.75 million for 1 year on the transition tag last year and figures to get paid well on the open market this off-season. The cap strapped Steelers will have a tough time keeping him.

OLB James Harrison

James Harrison was out of the league to start last season, but he rejoined the Steelers for week 4 after they needed help at the rush linebacker position and he proved to be a huge pickup, grading out 10th at his position on just 439 snaps. No one played fewer snaps at his position and graded out better. He’s going into his age 37 season so the end of the road is right around the corner, but he proved last season that he still has something left in the tank. He has graded out above average in every season in Pro Football Focus’ history (since 2007), including last season and a 2013 season with the Bengals where he was Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker on just 383 snaps as a base run stopping outside linebacker. No one played fewer snaps and graded out better at the position that season. Scheme versatile, he’ll draw interest on cheap, one-year deals this off-season, assuming he still wants to play.

CB Brice McCain

Brice McCain was Pro Football Focus’ 24th ranked cornerback in 2011 and looked like a potential future star, but that was the only season of his 6 year career that he’s graded out above average. He was Pro Football Focus’ 103rd ranked cornerback out of 113 eligible in 2012 and dead last ranked in 2013. He played 615 snaps for the Steelers out of necessity, despite not playing a snap in weeks 1-3, but he wasn’t that good. He’ll be looking at deals near the minimum this off-season.

RB Ben Tate

Ben Tate was a 2nd round pick in 2010 by the Texans and he’s shown talent, but injuries have been a serious issue for him. As a rookie, he broke his ankle in the pre-season, which opened the door for Arian Foster to emerge as one of the best running backs in the NFL. Ben Tate impressed as his backup, averaging 5.09 YPC on 240 carries in 2011 and 2012 and got his shot to be the starter in 2013 when Arian Foster went down with a season ending back injury. Unfortunately, the injury bug reared its head for Tate again as he broke several ribs. He only missed 2 games, the final two of the season, but was definitely hampered by the injury as he averaged just 4.26 yards per carry on 181 carries. He signed a 2-year, 7 million dollar deal with the Browns last off-season, but he lasted just 8 games with Cleveland, missing 3 with injuries, being limited to 3.14 YPC when on the field, and getting cut mid-season. The Vikings gave him a chance, but he had just 38 yards on 13 carries in Minnesota and was eventually let go there too. The Steelers signed him out of desperation for the playoffs, but he had just 28 yards on 7 touches. Tate could be on his 5th team in about 18 months if he’s signed elsewhere this off-season. He’ll be looking at one-year prove it deals near the minimum.

CB Ike Taylor

Ike Taylor has had a solid career and was Pro Football Focus’ 40th cornerback ranked as recently as 2012, but he missed 5 games down the stretch that season with a broken arm, graded out 98th out of 110 eligible in 2013, and then missed another 11 games this year with arm problems. Going into his age 35 season, there’s a good chance that Taylor’s career is done. He might either retire this off-season or go unsigned in free agency.

Cap Casualty Candidates

CB Cortez Allen

Cortez Allen was a 4th round pick by the Steelers in 2011. He barely played as a rookie, but he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 17th ranked cornerback on 563 snaps in 2012 and their 37th ranked cornerback on 718 snaps in 2013. He was given a 5-year, 26 million dollar deal last off-season, but he was horrible in the first season of that extension. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 103rd ranked cornerback out of 108 eligible, got benched after week 7, played 42 defensive snaps the rest of the way, and ended the season on IR. The Steelers can save 5.631 million in cash and 1.581 million on the cap by letting him go this off-season.

WR Lance Moore

Lance Moore was a 1000 yard receiver in 2012 with the Saints, but that was over two years ago, that was the only 1000+ yard season of his career, he’s missed 17 games over the past 6 seasons combined, he’s going into his age 32 season, and he’s combined for 51 catches for 665 yards and 4 touchdowns over the past 2 seasons. If he returns to the Steelers, he’ll be their 4th receiver at best behind Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, and Markus Wheaton. The Steelers can save 1.5 million in cash and cap space by letting him go and he’s basically asked for his release so I expect him to be let go this off-season.

DE Cam Thomas

Cam Thomas was decent in limited action in 2011 and 2012 with the Chargers, grading out above average on 395 snaps in 2011 and 404 snaps in 2012, while showing the versatility to play 3-4 defensive end and nose tackle. However, he struggled in 2013, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 51st ranked defensive tackle out of 69 eligible and he struggled even more in 2014 in his first season with the Steelers, grading out dead last among 3-4 defensive ends. The Steelers can save 2 million in cash and cap space by letting him go.

S Troy Polamalu

Troy Polamalu has graded out above average in all 8 seasons of Pro Football Focus’ history, but he’s going into his age 34 season and coming off of a season where he ranked 48th among safeties, worst since 2009 when he played just 5 games. He’s also missed 24 games in the last 6 seasons combined. He’s still a capable player and he’s a future Hall of Famer and I ultimately expect him back in Pittsburgh, but the cap strapped Steelers can cut him to save 6 million in cash and 3.75 million in cap space immediately so they’ll consider it.

DE Brett Keisel

Brett Keisel is one of the oldest players in the NFL, going into his age 37 season. He was decent on 451 snaps last season, but the end is near for him, especially coming off of a season ending triceps tear. He was Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2011, but he’s graded out below average in each of the last 3 seasons, missing 8 games over that period of time. If he returns in 2015, it’ll be as a reserve and the Steelers may opt to cut him to save 1.5 million in cash and cap space and bring him back on a minimum deal or let him leave outright.

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