Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers sign RB LeGarrette Blount

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Steelers, Uncategorized

LeGarrette Blount is a big name after what he did to the Colts in the playoffs, rushing for 166 yards and 4 touchdowns. However, people forget he had just 6 yards on 5 carries the following week in a loss in Denver. He averaged 5.19 yards per carry last season, including playoffs, on a combined 182 carries, but he was also available for a late round pick and a minimal salary the off-season prior, after averaging 4.14 yards per carry on 225 carries in 2011 and 2012 combined.

His career average of 4.68 yards per carry is pretty solid, but he offers nothing as a pass catcher (23 career catches), pass protector, has minimal special teams experience (17 career returns), fumbles often (9 fumbles on 579 career carries) and has a history of discipline problems. That being said, the Steelers are signing him purely as insurance and a backup to 2nd year running back Le’Veon Bell and he’s easily their 2nd best running back. Now they won’t have to rely on bums like Jonathan Dwyer, Felix Jones, and Isaac Redman if Bell gets hurt again. At 3.85 million over 2 years, he’s being paid very reasonably.

Grade: A-

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Pittsburgh Steelers sign S Mike Mitchell

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Steelers, Uncategorized

Mike Mitchell was a 2nd round pick of the Raiders in 2009 based on his freakish athleticism (4.39 40 at 6-1 216), but he never really put it together in Oakland, playing an average of 394 snaps per season, maxing out at 508 snaps, and grading out below average on Pro Football Focus in each of his last 3 seasons. He only played 334 snaps in 2012, his contract year, as a reserve and was forced to settle for a one year deal in Carolina worth about the veteran’s minimum.

He turned out to be a brilliant signing for Panthers GM Dave Gettleman as he became a 14-game starter (920 total snaps) at safety, a huge position of need for the Panthers, flashing often and showing his athleticism. He wasn’t spectacular, but he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 35th ranked safety, slightly above average, and was a key part of a surprisingly good Carolina team, led by a stifling defense.

Now he gets a 5-year, 25 million dollar deal from the Steelers. He fills a position of need for the Steelers, slotting it at safety next to Troy Polamalu, in place of the departed Ryan Clark, but this is the definition of buying high. 12 months ago no one wanted Mitchell and now after one year he’s worth 5 million yearly? It’s not like he was incredible last year and much of his strong play was as a result of a dominant Carolina front in front of him, which, by the way, won’t be following him to Pittsburgh. Buy high deals like this rarely work out.

The only reason this isn’t a terrible deal is because there’s barely any guaranteed money, as the Steelers guaranteed just 6 million, which is his 1st year’s salary. If Mitchell doesn’t work out, the Steelers can get out of this deal after one year and have it be just a 1-year, 6 million dollar contract with the cap hit split over 2014 and 2015 (2.2 million in 2014, 3.8 million in 2015). That’s still too much for Mitchell and there’s no guarantee the Steelers are humble enough to admit their mistake if it comes to it, but that is worth mentioning. The small guarantee saves this deal.

Grade: C+

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Pittsburgh Steelers 2014 Off-Season Report

stevenlourie 2014 Off-Season Reports, Steelers, Uncategorized

2013 Recap

The Steelers started the season 0-4, so it was pretty impressive the way they were able to finish their season, coming within a missed call in the Chiefs/Chargers game of making the playoffs. The big difference was their improved turnover margin. After a -9 turnover margin in their first 4 games, they had a +5 turnover margin in their final 12 games, going 8-4 in those 12 games. That shouldn’t have been surprising considering how inconsistent and unreliable turnover margins can be.

The Steelers finished just 8-8, but they were better than their record. They finished 13th in rate of moving the chains differential, 3rd best among non-playoff teams, behind only Detroit and Arizona, and best among non-playoff teams in the AFC. I think that bodes well for their playoff chances next year. That being said, the construction of next season’s Steelers team is still up in the air. They still have an aging roster with very little cap space. We’ll see where they are in 4 months.

Positional Needs

Safety

Troy Polamalu had a strong season last year, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked safety last season. However, he’s still missed 22 games over the past 5 seasons and going into his age 33 season. The cap strapped Steelers will probably consider cutting him going into his contract year, a move that would save them 8.25 million on the cap and in cash. Opposite him, Ryan Clark is a free agent. He was decent last season, but he’s clearly on the decline and going into his age 35 season. He’s already considering retirement. 2013 4th round pick Shamarko Thomas could be a future starter, but he’s just one player.

Wide Receiver

Jerricho Cotchery and Emmanuel Sanders are both free agents this off-season so that leaves the Steelers with 2013 3rd round pick Markus Wheaton after Antonio Brown on the depth chart with absolutely no depth. Wheaton still has promise, but he played just 161 snaps as a rookie, catching 6 passes. If they don’t re-sign one or both of Cotchery and Sanders, they’ll be looking at wide receivers early in the draft.

Defensive End

Brett Keisel and Ziggy Hood are both free agents. Keisel is a declining player going into his age 36 season, while Hood has been a massive bust since being drafted in the first round in 2009. They can’t really count on either of them in 2014. Cameron Heyward has one starting 5-technique spot locked up, but they’ll need a starter opposite him for the future and some depth.

Cornerback

William Gay and Cortez Allen are two solid cornerbacks, but they’ll need a third for the future. Ike Taylor is going into his age 34 season and could easily be a cap casualty this off-season, which would save them 7 million in cap space and cash going into his contract year, a very smart move for a cap strapped team like the Steelers. Taylor struggled mightily in 2014, graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 6th worst ranked cornerback in terms of coverage grade, allowing a league leading 1043 yards receiving in his area of coverage.

Offensive Tackle

Mike Adams was the left tackle to start the season, but he was benched and replaced with Levi Brown, who was acquired via trade. However, he never even made it on the field for the Steelers, tearing his triceps within a week. He’s suffered that injury in back-to-back seasons and wasn’t great before that, so it’s highly unlikely that they pay him 6 million in his age 30 season in 2014, when they can cut him penalty free. Kelvin Beachum then took over at left tackle and he’s been below average. The Steelers need to improve Ben Roethlisberger’s blindside protection.

Middle Linebacker

The Steelers lost starter Larry Foote to injury after week 1. Vince Williams, a 6th round rookie, took over eventually, next to established starter Lawrence Timmons. He wasn’t terrible, especially for a 6th round rookie, and he could develop into a starter long-term, but he could have been better. Larry Foote probably isn’t back, as a mediocre linebacker going into his age 34 season and coming off of a significant injury, so they could use another veteran in the mix to push Williams.

Kick Returner

Felix Jones, Emmanuel Sanders, and Jonathan Dwyer combined to take back 37 of 43 kickoffs for the Steelers and all 3 of them are free agents this off-season. None of them were particularly good anyway, as the Steelers ranked 21st in the NFL, returning kickoffs for an average of 22.4 yards per. They could use a mid to late round pick on a kickoff return specialist.

Punter

Mat McBriar is a free agent and if he’s not retained, they’ll need a new punter. He struggled anyway, as he averaged just 39.8 yards per punt and 34.5 net yards per punt.

Key Free Agents

OLB Jason Worilds

A talented reserve in the first three years of his career, Worilds, a 2010 2nd round pick, had a breakout year in 2013. The Steelers cut veteran James Harrison in the off-season and were expecting 1st round pick Jarvis Jones to take his spot. Instead, it was Worilds, who played 792 snaps, most among Steelers outside linebackers, and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 12th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker this season. There isn’t room for the Steelers to have Jarvis Jones, LaMarr Woodley, and Worilds under their cap, considering how cap strapped they are, but they may make LaMarr Woodley, an overpaid declining player, a post-June 1st cap casualty and use the freed up cap space to bring back Worilds. Wherever he ends up, I imagine him getting a multi-year deal worth upwards of 5 million yearly.

S Ryan Clark

Ryan Clark was still a solid starter last season, but he was a far cry from his 2008-2012 form, a stretch in which he finished in the top-25 among safety on Pro Football Focus in all 5 seasons and maxed out at 9th in 2012. Considering his age, as he’s going into his age 35 season, that’s very understandable and it’s probably not going to get any better. He could still be brought back as a starter by the Steelers, but he also might retire. It’s hard to see him signing anywhere else other than Pittsburgh, but stranger things have happened. Either way, it’s probably going to be a one, maybe two year deal.

WR Emmanuel Sanders

A decent starter and nothing more, Emmanuel Sanders took Mike Wallace’s spot in the starting lineup this season and caught a career high 67 passes for 740 yards and 6 touchdowns on 108 targets and 557 routes run. He doesn’t have a ton of upside, but he’s a decent, cheap starter or #3 receiver for any receiver needy team on a budget. The Steelers will probably try to bring him back at the right price.

C Fernando Velasco

Fernando Velasco randomly had a great season in 2012, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked center in his first year as a starter. He was given a 2nd round tender by the Titans after that season, but eventually he was made a final cut, a pretty surprising move. Perhaps he was proving to be a one year wonder in Training Camp and wasn’t living up to his salary. The Steelers scooped him up to replace Maurkice Pouncey after he tore his ACL week 1 and while he wasn’t nearly as good as he was in 2012, he was still a welcome addition for the Steelers’ offensive line, though he did suffer injuries of his own. He’ll probably be looking at one year deals this off-season again, but he’s a starting caliber player.

DE Brett Keisel

Keisel was Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked 3-4 defensive end as recently as 2011, but he’s turned in two very pedestrian seasons since. Going into his age 35 season, there’s a chance he could retire. If he doesn’t, he’s probably looking at one year deals, though he should still be given a chance to contribute as a rotational player or starter. It wouldn’t be a bad idea for the Steelers to bring him back if he were interested.

RB Jonathan Dwyer

Jonathan Dwyer was actually the Steelers’ leading rusher in 2012, leading the way with 632 yards and 2 touchdowns on 156 carries. He was a little overstretched in that role, averaging just 4.0 yards per carry and is better suited for a backup role. He carried the ball 49 times in 2013, which is much more appropriate. He’ll be looking at short-term deals and backup roles on the open market this off-season.

WR Jerricho Cotchery

Cotchery was a 1000 yard receiver in 2007 with the Jets and isn’t even that old, but he hasn’t been putting up the same numbers in Pittsburgh. Last season was his best since 2009 as Cotchery had a bigger role with Mike Wallace gone. He caught 46 passes for 602 yards and 10 touchdowns on 74 targets and 455 pass routes run. He’s going into his age 32 season so his best days are behind him, but he’s a solid depth receiver at the very least.

DE Ziggy Hood

A first round pick in 2009 by the Steelers, Hood was supposed to be a key cog on this Pittsburgh defense for the future. Instead, he’s been a massive bust. A key contributor since 2010, Hood has graded as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd lowest ranked, lowest ranked, 4th lowest ranked, and 2nd lowest ranked 3-4 defensive end respectively. His phone shouldn’t ring for a while.

P Mat McBriar

Mat McBriar was once a great punter, but he struggled mightily this season, after being signed off the streets mid-season, as he averaged just 39.8 yards per punt and 34.5 net yards per punt. Time will tell if he gets another chance, going into his age 35 season.

Cap Casualty Candidates

OT Levi Brown

Levi Brown has played a combined 269 snaps over the past 2 seasons thanks to two separate triceps tears, the latter of which was suffered after the Cardinals shipped him to Pittsburgh for a late round pick. He suffered the injury in practice before he could ever play a snap with the Steelers. And it’s not like he’s been a good player in the past. The 5th overall pick in the 2007 NFL Draft, Brown is a massive bust that has gotten way too many chances to shed the label. Before the last two injury plagued seasons, Brown was ProFootballFocus’ 57th ranked offensive tackle (out of 76) in 2011, 78th ranked offensive tackles (out of 78) in 2010, and 72nd ranked offensive tackle (out of 77) in 2009. Going into his age 30 season and owed 6.25 million, there’s no reason the Steelers keep him around, especially since they can cut him penalty free.

CB Ike Taylor

Ike Taylor is going into his age 34 season and could easily be a cap casualty this off-season, which would save them 7 million in cap space and cash going into his contract year, a very smart move for a cap strapped team like the Steelers. Taylor struggled mightily in 2014, graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 6th worst ranked cornerback in terms of coverage grade, allowing a league leading 1043 yards receiving in his area of coverage.

MLB Larry Foote

Larry Foote was Pro Football Focus’ 46th ranked middle linebacker out of 53 eligible in 2012 and he was going into age 33 season in 2013. Still, the Steelers decided re-signing him with a cheap 3-year deal was their best option at middle linebacker. Foote lasted one game before going down with injury and in his absence, 6th round rookie Vince Williams proved to be a cheaper and probably better replacement. With Foote now going into his age 34 season, he’s unlikely to be brought back at his 1.5 million dollar salary. The Steelers can save 1.17 million on the cap by cutting him, not a ton, but enough for this cap strapped team to pull the trigger.

OLB LaMarr Woodley

Cutting LaMarr Woodley would actually cost the Steelers cap space, so they’d have to cut him as a post-June 1st cut if they’re going to cut him. That being said, there’s some merit to them doing that. His cap number is going to be 13.59 million if they don’t cut him and they can free up a lot of cap space by cutting him as a post-June 1st cut. He’s a declining player going into his age 30 season and he’s maxed out at 641 snaps played in the first 3 years of his extension from 2011-2013 thanks to injury and declining play. The Steelers can go forward with Jarvis Jones and Jason Worilds as the starters at the position going forward and be younger and more explosive, but they need some cap space and Woodley to be out of the way in order to re-sign the free agent Worilds, who had a breakout year this season.

S Troy Polamalu

Troy Polamalu had a strong season last year, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked safety last season. However, he’s still missed 22 games over the past 5 seasons and going into his age 33 season. The cap strapped Steelers will probably consider cutting him going into his contract year, a move that would save them 8.25 million on the cap and in cash. Extending him to a short-term deal that lowers his cap number for this season would make more sense to me though.

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Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 17 NFL Picks, Browns, Steelers, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (4-11) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-8)

The situational trends say Cleveland is the right side here. For one, Cleveland is in their 2nd straight road game. Historically, teams lose by an average of 3.07 points per game on the road after a home game and 2.07 points per game on the road after a road game, as far back as my data goes (1989). One trend that goes off of this is that teams are 101-64 ATS as road underdogs off of a road loss since 2008. The Browns are in that situation off of a loss in New York to the Jets last week.

Another powerful trend is that teams who lose as divisional home favorites are 48-23 ATS since 2002 as road dogs in the same season, regular season rematch. It makes sense. Matchups where the team who is favored is dependent on the location tend to be matchups between very even teams and very even teams tend to split the season series no matter what. If you’ve lost as home favorites, you have to win as road underdogs in this situation to split the season series. Teams in this situation do win as road underdogs at a .500 rate since 2002 (39-39) and an even higher percentage, as previously mentioned, about 2/3rds, cover the spread, as the previous loss artificially inflates the spread. The Browns have room to play with here because they are 7 point underdogs so they can easily cover even if they don’t win.

However, that assumes these two teams are equal, which I don’t think is true. Cleveland is not playing good football right now, as they are on a 6 game losing streak and lost by 11 to the Jets last week, the Jets’ biggest win of the season in terms of margin of victory. They haven’t won at all since they were 2 point home favorites for the Steelers week 12. The Steelers, meanwhile, are better than their 7-8 record, as they are 2-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less.

They are moving the chains at a 71.90% rate, as opposed to 71.33% for their opponents, a differential of 0.57%, which ranks 13th in the NFL. The Browns, meanwhile, are all the way down at 24th, moving the chains at a 68.18% rate, as opposed to 71.78% for their opponents, a differential of -3.60%. That suggests this line should be around 7, which is where is it, so we’re not getting any real line value, but it kind of nullifies some (but not all) of that aforementioned trend because these two teams are not comparable.

On top of that, the Ben Roethlisberger led Steelers usually dominate the division. They are 37-23 ATS in divisional games since 2004, Ben Roethlisberger’s rookie year, including 34-18 ATS in games in which Ben Roethlisberger starts. On top of that, they are 10-4 ATS in divisional games in which they are favored by a touchdown or more at home since 2004. At the end of the day, the Browns are probably the right choice because they have powerful situational trends on their side, but I’m not confident at all. Pittsburgh is also my Survivor Pick of the week.

Pittsburgh Steelers 19 Cleveland Browns 13 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Cleveland +7

Confidence: None

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Packers, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-9) at Green Bay Packers (7-6-1)

Aaron Rodgers is out for this one and, given that, it’s a little absurd that the Packers are favorites here at home. The Steelers are better than their 6-8 record. They’ve just been killed by a 1-5 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. In DVOA, they rank 13th. They are moving the chains at a 71.60% rate, as opposed to 70.64% for their opponents, a differential of 0.95% that ranks 13th in the NFL.

The Packers are moving the chains at a 74.28% rate, as opposed to 74.32% for their opponents, a differential of -0.04% that ranks 15th in the NFL. That suggests this line should be at about 2, which is right around where it is (2.5), but, remember, much of what’s buoying the Packers’ rank in rate of moving the chains differential was done when Aaron Rodgers was the starter. Given that it’ll be Matt Flynn here this week, it’s absurd that they’re favored. The Steelers might have the better defense and offense in this one and they’re getting points.

Matt Flynn’s numbers since joining the Packers are pretty good, as he’s completing 63.8% of his passes for an average of 7.20 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. However, you have to consider that in 3 of the 4 games he’s played, he faced 3 of the worst defenses in the NFL (Minnesota, Atlanta, Dallas). You can’t ignore his performance against Detroit, when he completed 10 of 20 for 139 yards and a pick in a 40-10 loss on Thanksgiving. Pittsburgh’s defense isn’t what it used to be, but it’s at least comparable to Detroit’s. Flynn won’t have nearly the success he’s had against cupcake defenses.

Speaking of cupcake defenses, Matt Flynn shredded a Dallas defense that is worst in the NFL last week, in an upset comeback win by 1 point. They could suffer a hangover effect after such a big win. Home favorites are 24-40 ATS since 2002 off of a win by 1-3 points as road underdogs of 3 or more. On top of that, Pittsburgh is in a great spot with no distractions left on their schedule, as they only face Cleveland in Pittsburgh next week. Teams are 116-86 ATS as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites since 2002. The Packers are going to have a hard time beating a superior, focused opponent at home, especially if they’re hung over after last week, and the fact that we’re getting points with Pittsburgh just sweetens the deal. I have a good deal of confidence in the Steelers.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Green Bay Packers 17 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 15 NFL Picks, Bengals, Steelers, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (9-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-8)

The Bengals have been dominant at home this season, winning all 6 of their games by an average of 16.00 points per game, including victories over the Colts, Patriots, and the Aaron Rodgers led Packers. They’ve also covered in all 6 of those games. However, they haven’t been the same team on the road. They are 3-4 on the road, including losses in Cleveland, Baltimore, Miami, and Chicago and a near loss in Buffalo. Their only impressive road games have been in Detroit, where they won by a field goal, and in San Diego, where they won by a touchdown, their only road game of the season where they’ve won by more than a touchdown.

And yet, they’re favored by 2.5 points here in Pittsburgh. They are 1-3 ATS as road favorites this season, including 0-2 ATS as divisional road favorites. They lost in Cleveland and Baltimore, despite beating the Browns by 21 (they haven’t played the Ravens there yet). Why couldn’t they lose in Pittsburgh against a Steelers team that only lost by 10 in Cincinnati earlier this season?

The Steelers are better than their 5-8 record would suggest. They are moving the chains at a 71.18% rate, as opposed to 70.26% for their opponents, a 0.92% differential that is 13th in the NFL. They’ve just been killed by a 1-5 record in games decided by a touchdown or less and a 36.67% fumble recovery percentage. The Bengals are very good as well, moving the chains at a 72.60% rate, as opposed to 66.58% for their opponents, a 6.02% differential that is 4th in the NFL. However, they just aren’t the same on the road. If we were getting field goal protection with the Steelers, it’d be a bigger play, but I still like the Steelers’ chances of winning this straight up.

Pittsburgh Steelers 16 Cincinnati Bengals 13 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +2.5

Confidence: Low

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Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Steelers, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (6-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-7)

This line suggests that those two teams are even, with Pittsburgh favored by 3 at home, because 3 is the standard adjustment for home field advantage. I don’t think that’s true. The Steelers started the year 0-4 because of serious turnover battle problems (-9), but that kind of thing usually evens out and the Steelers are +5 in turnovers since then. As a result, they are 5-3 since their bye and they played good football in two of their losses and easily could have won (@ Oakland, @ Baltimore).

They are moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents, a differential that ranks 13th in the NFL. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 71% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents, as they’ve had major offensive line problems and their retooled defense has not lived up to expectations. That ranks 21st in the NFL. That suggests this line should be somewhere around 5.5 instead.

The Dolphins are also in a bad spot as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home underdogs, as they head home to face the Patriots next week. Teams are 52-78 ATS in that spot. They’ll probably be too distracted to compete on the road against a superior football team. Going off of that, teams are 60-101 ATS before being home underdogs of 3.5 or more since 2010. Also, fun fact, Dolphins are 17-27 ATS since 1989 before playing the Patriots. It’s not, on its own, a reason to take the Steelers, but it’s worth noting. The Steelers are also rested off of a Thursday night game. I like the Steelers chances here as long as they are only laying a field goal.

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Miami Dolphins 13

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -3

Confidence: Medium

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Pittsburgh Steelers: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#14)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Steelers, Uncategorized

Last week: 21 (+7)

Record: 5-7

Pittsburgh is ahead of Baltimore despite their loss in Baltimore. That’s because the Ravens/Steelers Thanksgiving game was a must win for just Baltimore. Pittsburgh beat Baltimore in Pittsburgh earlier this year and a win in Baltimore would have given them the tiebreaker. Pittsburgh is now a game back, but also has the easier schedule and has played better football this season. 3 of Pittsburgh’s final 4 games are at home, with a home game against Cincinnati being their only game against a current playoff team, while Baltimore goes to both Cincinnati and Detroit, in addition to a home game against New England. The Steelers are also the only one with a road win in the division (@ Cleveland), which will help them with the 2nd tiebreaker. The Steelers also rank 15th in DVOA, as opposed to 23rd for Baltimore. I still think they’ll get the 6th seed. Barely losing in Baltimore is nothing to be ashamed of.

Week 12 Studs

RT Marcus Gilbert

LOLB Jason Worilds

CB William Gay

SS Troy Polamalu

FS Will Allen

Week 12 Duds

ROLB Jarvis Jones

CB Ike Taylor

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 13 NFL Picks, Ravens, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-6) at Baltimore Ravens (5-6)

The Ravens have been pretty unbeatable at home over the past few seasons, going 27-4 at home since 2010. Even this year, their worst year of that time frame, they are 5-1 at home, including 6-0 ATS. Because of that, I automatically think about taking the Ravens as small home favorites in a game they pretty much have to just win. They are 5-3 ATS as home underdogs or home favorites of 3 or fewer over that time frame.

However, the Steelers are one team that has had success in Baltimore over that time frame, delivering them 2 of their 4 losses and one of those home non-covers as underdogs or small home favorites. For the record, their other two losses were to Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers, while their other non-covers were to Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, a pretty good group. The Steelers have actually won and covered in two of their last three instances over the Ravens in Baltimore since the 2010 season.

Sure, they’re not the same Steeler team they were then, but they came in and won as touchdown underdogs with Charlie Batch under center during last year’s 8-8 season and that was when the Ravens were better than they are now. The injury to Dennis Pitta and the departure of Anquan Boldin have turned this into one of the worst offenses in the NFL. Their offensive line and their running game aren’t playing well either. Outside of the Joe Flacco to Torrey Smith combination, nothing is really working well for the Ravens offensively.

The Steelers are also in a good spot as divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites. Teams are 103-71 ATS in that spot since 2002. I’m still taking the Ravens. These two teams are very evenly matched because of how good the Ravens’ defense is. They are 11th (Ravens) and 13th (Steelers) in rate of moving the chains differential. The Steelers’ success in Baltimore scares me, but as long as these two teams are evenly matched, I’m taking the Ravens at home as small favorites. I’m not confident though.

Baltimore Ravens 17 Pittsburgh Steelers 13

Pick against spread: Baltimore -2.5

Confidence: None

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