Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, Browns, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-6) at Cleveland Browns (4-6)

The Steelers may be 4-6, but they’re better than their record. They are moving the chains at a 74% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents, a differential that is 13th in the NFL. They are 4-2 since the bye, after their 0-4 start. They started the season with a -11 turnover margin in the first 4 games of the season, recovering 18.2% of fumbles that hit the ground. Since then, their turnover margin has been +3 over the past 6 games and their rate of recovering fumbles has increased to 34.8%.

That was predictable and they seem to have put their issues behind them, beating 4 teams with a combined 19-22 record in the process, so they aren’t exactly beating up on cupcakes. They did get blown out in New England, but there’s not a ton of shame in that and they could have easily won in Oakland as well, if they hadn’t allowed the longest touchdown run by a quarterback ever and miss several makeable field goals.

The Browns aren’t as good. They are moving the chains at a 68% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents, which ranks 24th in the NFL. They have no business being favored here, if it’s only by one point. Going into last week, they were 4-1 when Brandon Weeden wasn’t their starting quarterback, only losing in Kansas City in a close game. However, Jason Campbell fell apart last week, completing 27 of 56 for 248 yards, 1 touchdown, and 3 interceptions. It’s hard to trust him this week. The Steelers should be the right side.

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Cleveland Browns 16 Upset Pick +100

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +1

Confidence: Low

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Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 11 NFL Picks, Lions, Steelers, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (6-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-6)

The Steelers are 3-6, but they are better than their record. They are moving the chains at a 74% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents, which is a differential that ranks 17th in the NFL. They’ve just been killed by turnovers (-11 on the season), an inability to recover fumbles (28.6%), and return touchdowns (-2 in return touchdowns), but those things are all related and all very inconsistent. The Lions are a good team, moving the chains at a 78% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents, but we’re still getting some line value with Pittsburgh +3.

The Lions are also in a bad spot after last week’s close win in Chicago. Favorites are 28-59 ATS since 2002 off of a win by 1-3 as road favorites the week before. They have a one game lead on the division, an easy schedule upcoming, and the two teams within a game of them in the division are missing their starting quarterbacks with injury. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if they started to coast a little bit. As long as we’re getting a field goal with the Steelers, they should be the right side, but I’m not that confident.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Detroit Lions 23 Upset Pick +125

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +3

Confidence: Low

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Pittsburgh Steelers: 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#24)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Steelers, Uncategorized

Last week: 24 (+0)

Record: 3-6

Dick LeBeau is now 19-2 against rookie quarterbacks in his career after befuddling EJ Manuel and the Bills last week, in a 23-10 loss that wasn’t even as close as that (Buffalo’s touchdown was in garbage time). Manuel completed 22 of 39 for 155 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception in the loss. The Steelers are only 2 games out of a wild card, holding the tiebreaker over the Jets. They’ll have to beat a non-rookie quarterback this week to stay alive as the Lions come to town. They are better than their record, moving the chains at a 73% rate, as to 74% for their opponents, but I don’t have a strong read on them really.

Week 10 Studs

FS Ryan Clark

Week 10 Duds

RB Le’Veon Bell

C Fernando Velasco

LG Guy Whimper

TE Heath Miller

ROLB Jason Worilds

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Pittsburgh Steelers: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#24)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Steelers, Uncategorized

Last week: 18 (-6)

Record: 2-6

The Steelers are one team that I don’t really have a beat on. Their offense has been massively improved since the bye, but their aging defense seems to be heading in the opposite direction. Any time you allow 55 points, even to the Patriots, who can tear up anyone when they’re right, it’s a bad sign. They are still getting killed in turnovers (-11), which probably won’t continue going forward, especially since it’s largely the result of a 26.3% rate of fumble recovery. They are moving the chains at a 73% rate, as opposed to 75% for their opponents, allowed by their defense. I still think they are more likely to go 4-4 the rest of the way than 1-7, but it’s tough to tell. They have the looks of a rough off-season ahead of them as they look to reload and rebuild.

Week 9 Studs

WR Jerricho Cotchery

LE Cameron Heyward

LOLB LaMarr Woodley

Week 9 Studs

C Fernando Velasco

CB William Gay

FS Ryan Clark

SS Troy Polamalu

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Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Picks, Bills, Steelers, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (3-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-6)

The Steelers are one team that I don’t really have a beat on. Their offense has been massively improved since the bye, but their aging defense seems to be heading in the opposite direction. Any time you allow 55 points, even to the Patriots, who can tear up anyone when they’re right, it’s a bad sign. They are still getting killed in turnovers (-11), which probably won’t continue going forward, especially since it’s largely the result of a 26.3% rate of fumble recovery. They are moving the chains at a 73% rate, as opposed to 75% for their opponents, allowed by their defense.

The Bills have a similar differential, moving the chains at a 69% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents. They are better than their record, beating the Dolphins in Miami, the Panthers and Ravens at home, and almost beating both New England and Cincinnati. Last week, their offense outscored the Chiefs’ offense, despite starting undrafted rookie Jeff Tuel and only lost because of two return touchdowns by the Chiefs’ defense.

This week, they get EJ Manuel back from injury, which could improve their offense. However, there’s no guarantee he’ll be 100% off of an extended absence and it’s not like he was playing great football before he was hurt. He’s actually still ProFootballFocus’ 2nd worst ranked quarterback ahead of only Geno Smith despite the limited playing time. Thaddeus Lewis, meanwhile, ranks 25th out of 35. Not great, but better than Manuel. Statistically, Manuel is completing 56.7% of his passes for 6.6 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Lewis, meanwhile, is completing 60.3% of his passes for an average of 6.3 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions with a slightly better quarterback rating.

Manuel is going to be better long-term most likely and it’s good to get him playing time, but, as for the short term, all you can say for sure is that he’ll be better than Jeff Tuel, and the rest of the team might slack off around him with their quarterback back. Their offense could still really struggle, even against Pittsburgh’s aging defense. They’ll need to establish CJ Spiller, who finally broke out last week, rushing for 116 yards on 12 attempts. There’s no guarantee he can do that again, especially since he admitted his ankle is still hurting him. On top of that, all of the Bills’ impressive performances have been at home this season. On the road, they are just 1-3 ATS.

If I had to take a side, I guess it would be the Bills. I’m not confident at all, but I guess if I had to bet on something, it would be CJ Spiller continuing to play well and the Bills being in the better spot distractions wise. There’s much less likely to be distracted with a home game against the Jets on deck, whereas the Steelers have to deal with a better Detroit team next week. Teams are 114-82 ATS as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites. I have no confidence though.

Pittsburgh Steelers 19 Buffalo Bills 17

Pick against spread: Buffalo +3

Confidence: None

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Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 9 NFL Picks, Patriots, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-5) at New England Patriots (6-2)

The Steelers once again came up flat as non-divisional road favorites last week, losing in Oakland, a situation they are now 6-18 ATS since Mike Tomlin took over in 2007. However, I was actually impressed with them. Another loss on their record doesn’t help their playoff chances, but, result aside, they were easily the better team in that matchup. If it wasn’t for a breakdown on a fluke touchdown run by Terrelle Pryor (the longest in NFL history by a quarterback) and two missed field goals that easily could have been made, they might have won that game by 7-10 points. They had more first downs (20 to 13), fewer punts (8 to 7), and fewer turnovers (3 to 2).

They’re moving the chains at a 73% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents. Record aside, they’re not playing a whole lot worse than the Patriots. While the Steelers rank 15th in rate of moving the chains, the Patriots rank 14th, moving the chains at a below average 72% rate and relying on a solid defense, which is allowing opponents to move the chains at a 71% rate. Football Outsiders agrees, as they have the Patriots 13th in DVOA, while the Steelers are 16th. The Patriots have been overly reliant on winning close games (4-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less), winning the turnover battle (+7), recovering fumbles (63.6%), and playing an easy schedule (only 2 games against teams ranked in the top-16 of my Power Rankings).

It needs to be said. Tom Brady looks more like a former 6th round pick than a 3-time Super Bowl winner this year. Pro Football Focus grades him out as the 24th ranked passing quarterback out of 37 eligible. He is completing 55.7% of his passes for an average of 5.9 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, good for a QB rating of 74.9, which ranks 27th, right between Chad Henne and Carson Palmer. South Park portrayed him very accurately this week when they suggested he was playing like he took a bunch of laxatives. He could definitely get better by the end of the season and he’s proven in the past it isn’t wise to bet against him in the long-term, but in the short-term, I have no problem with doing it as long as the public doesn’t realize how bad he’s playing, inflating the line. While I don’t doubt it could happen, I’ll have to see him improve to believe it at this point.

I thought it would get better when Rob Gronkowski returned, but in his 2nd game back Brady completed 13 of 22 for 116 yards, 1 touchdown, and an interception against a weak Miami defense and really didn’t look good. They won by 10 on the strength of their defense, which will get better with Aqib Talib expected to return this week, but they, by no means, deserve to be favored by 7 points here. Remember, they are still missing Jerod Mayo and Vince Wilfork. Their defense still isn’t at full stretch. We’re getting at least 3 points of line value with the Steelers, if not more.

They’ve been even better since the bye. Over the past three weeks they have 53 first downs to 14 punts and 3 turnovers (a 76% rate), as opposed to 50 first downs, 18 punts, and 5 turnovers for their opponents (a 68% rate). They’ll be underrated going forward, as they are here. Their once again dominant defense should be able to shut down the stumbling Patriots’ offense. The Steelers had a big problem with turnovers early in the season (-11), but, as turnover margins normally do, they’ve improved since the bye (+2) and they could improve even more going forward as they are still recovering fumbles at just a 23.5% rate, which won’t continue. They’ve also gotten guys back from injury and are overall just playing better since the bye.

They’re also in a great spot here, as a result of last week’s loss. Teams are 96-55 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs off of a road loss, a trend that covers at about a 65% rate historically, no matter what year you use as a cutoff for your sample size. They’ll also be completely focused with a home game against the Bills next week. Since 2008, non-divisional road underdogs are 97-61 ATS before being non-divisional home favorites.

The Patriots will also be completely focused, going into their bye, which is the only reason why this isn’t a Pick of the Week for Pittsburgh. Teams are 39-14 as home favorites of 7 or more since 2002. However, I think the fact that the Patriots definitely don’t deserve to be favored by 7 cancels that out a little bit. Besides, there are places they are 6.5 point favorites so it’s not like they’re a consensus 7 point favorite, for whatever that matters. As long as I can get Pittsburgh at +7, this is a high confidence pick.

New England Patriots 17 Pittsburgh Steelers 16

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +7

Confidence: High

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Pittsburgh Steelers: 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#18)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Steelers, Uncategorized

Last week: 21 (+3)

Record: 2-5

The Steelers once again came up flat as non-divisional road favorites this week, a situation they are now 6-18 ATS since Mike Tomlin took over in 2007. However, I was actually impressed with them. Another loss on their record doesn’t help their playoff chances, but, result aside, they were easily the better team in that matchup. If it wasn’t for a breakdown on a fluke touchdown run by Terrelle Pryor (the longest in NFL history) and two missed field goals that easily could have been made, they might have won that game by 7-10 points. They had more first downs (20 to 13), fewer punts (8 to 7), and fewer turnovers (3 to 2). They’re moving the chains at a 73% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents and they’ve been even better since the bye. Over the past three weeks they have 53 first downs to 14 punts and 3 turnovers (a 76% rate), as opposed to 50 first downs, 18 punts, and 5 turnovers for their opponents (a 68% rate). They’ll be underrated going forward.

Week 8 Studs

RT Marcus Gilbert

RG David DeCastro

RE Brett Keisel

Week 8 Duds

LT Kelvin Beachum

LG Guy Whimper

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 8 NFL Picks, Raiders, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-4) at Oakland Raiders (2-4)

The Steelers have been night and day better since the bye. The return of Le’Veon Bell and Heath Miller to full health, giving the Steelers a talented runner and a safety net receiver respectively, have obviously helped, but I also think they are playing better as other guys are playing up to their abilities. They are still -2% in terms of moving the chains differential on the season, as opposed to -6% for the Raiders, so this line at Pittsburgh -2.5 is a little bit high. However, over the past two weeks they have 33 first downs to 7 punts and 1 turnover (an 80% rate), as opposed to 37 first downs, 10 punts, and 2 turnovers for their opponents (a 76% rate).

This week, they will have to avoid a trap they’ve fallen into countless times in the Mike Tomlin era. They are 6-17 ATS and just 12-11 straight up as non-divisional road favorites since Tomlin took over in 2007. Of course, at 2-4, they might not overlook the Raiders like they otherwise would have in recent years when they were good. They covered as road favorites in New York against the Jets a few weeks ago, though they were 0-4 at the time and desperately needed a week. They were also coming directly off of a bye and road favorites cover at an incredible rate after a bye. It’s tough to know what kind of Steelers team will show this week, if they’ll play with urgency or if they’ll play down to the level of their competition after two wins. It’s tough to pick a side. I wish this line was 3 or higher though because I don’t feel comfortable taking the Raiders essentially straight up.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Oakland Raiders 16

Pick of the Week: Oakland +2.5

Confidence: None

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Pittsburgh Steelers: 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#21)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Steelers, Uncategorized

Last week: 23 (+2)

Record: 2-4

The Steelers have been night and day better since the bye. The return of Le’Veon Bell and Heath Miller to full health, giving the Steelers a talented runner and a safety net receiver respectively, have obviously helped, but I also think they are playing better as other guys are playing up to their abilities. David DeCastro, the Steelers’ first round pick in 2012, has established himself as one of the premier guards in the NFL in his first full season as a healthy starter. The Steelers now go on the road to Oakland this week and will have to avoid a trap they’ve fallen into countless times in the Mike Tomlin era. They are 6-17 ATS and just 12-11 straight up as non-divisional road favorites since Tomlin took over in 2007. Maybe at 2-4 they’ll see it as a must win and they won’t flop.

Week 7 Studs

RT Guy Whimper

RG David DeCastro

Week 7 Duds

TE Heath Miller

ROLB Jason Worilds

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Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2013 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 7 NFL Picks, Ravens, Steelers, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (3-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-4)

I’ll admit I was pretty surprised when I saw the Steelers were favorites by 1.5 points here against the Ravens, which essentially suggests these two teams are even. However, it just seems like the odds makers think the Steelers are significantly better than their record. They were right about it last week, as the Steelers ended up being 1 point favorites in New York against the Jets despite being 0-4 and ended up winning. I can definitely understand the arguments in favor of the Steelers being underrated by the public.

They are healthier now offensively thanks to the returns of Heath Miller and Le’Veon Bell, who function as a reliable safety value and a talented running back respectively, two things the Steelers were sorely lacking to start the season. Defensively, they are still playing at an elite level, allowing 88 first downs to 29 punts and their -9 turnover margin probably isn’t indicative of what their turnover margin will be in the future. That type of thing is very random and unpredictable and largely the result of the Steelers’ 23.08% fumble recovery rate, which won’t continue going forward. Their defense is also too talented not to force takeaways. They forced their first 2 of the season against the Jets last week, after being kept out of that category during the first 4 weeks and I expect them to continue forcing turnovers at a reasonable rate.

Meanwhile, the Ravens are not the same team on the road, going 1-2 on the road this year, including a loss in Buffalo and a blowout loss in Denver. Since 2010, they are outscoring opponents by about 11 points per game at home and 1 point per game on the road. I don’t want to disagree with the odds makers on this one when their line is easily defendable, even though I was surprised by it. The public seems to be falling into their trap and taking the Ravens at a high rate. I love an opportunity to pick against a publicly backed underdog whenever it makes sense, but it’s not going to be a huge play.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Baltimore Ravens 13

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -1.5

Confidence: Low

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