Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 16 NFL Power Rankings (#12)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, Steelers

Last week: 11 (-1)

Record: 7-7

Net points per drive: 0.10 (13th)

DVOA: -3.0% (17th)

Weighted DVOA: 0.0% (15th)

The Steelers lost last week in Dallas, but that game didn’t mean anything to them. For Dallas it meant their season, but the Steelers still control their own destiny if they can win out at home against Cincinnati and Cleveland and I think they can. I discussed Cincinnati’s issues with playoff caliber opponents over the last 2 seasons, but Pittsburgh might actually be healthier now than they’ve been all season. I know they’re missing Ike Taylor, but all their other guy players are healthy and that hasn’t been the case all year. We just couldn’t tell against Dallas because they didn’t care (they’re also now 5-16 ATS as road non-divisional favorites in the Mike Tomlin era). Unfortunately, 9-7 and a 6 seed sends them to Foxboro in the 1st round. They won’t be an easy out, but I can’t see them winning that game

Studs

LG Ramon Foster: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 45 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 1 attempt

TE Heath Miller: Caught 7 passes for 92 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts, 5.7 YAC per catch, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 11 pass block snaps

Duds

RT Kelvin Beachum: Allowed 1 sack and 4 quarterback hurries on 45 pass block snaps, run blocked for 0 yards on 1 attempt

CB Josh Victorian: Allowed 7 catches for 88 yards on 9 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 5 solo tackles, 4 missed tackles

MLB Larry Foote: 5 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle, 2 quarterback hurries on 16 blitzes, allowed 3 catches for 33 yards on 3 attempts

LOLB LaMarr Woodley: Did not record a pressure on 22 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

NT Casey Hampton: Did not record a pressure on 21 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Dallas Cowboys: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) at Dallas Cowboys (7-6)

After the Steelers’ loss last week, I was expecting them to be dogs here, especially after the Cowboys big win as dogs last week. There was no early line last week because Ben Roethlisberger’s status was still in doubt so I didn’t know really what to expect in terms of this line. I was expecting them to be dogs, though dogs of less than 3, but I still was expecting to take them for a big play for a variety of reasons.

The first is that the Cowboys have really struggled as home favorites since they opened the new Cowboy Stadium in 2009, going 9-18 ATS. They’ve already lost to the Redskins and Bears in this situation this year and barely beat the Buccaneers and the crappy Eagles and Browns. Meanwhile, the Steelers are very good in the Mike Tomlin era off a loss as favorites, as well coached teams generally do. They are 13-7 ATS, including 3-0 ATS as dogs.

Meanwhile, teams are 105-62 ATS as dogs before being favorites since 2011 and the Steelers host the Bengals next week and will be favored. The Cowboys also suck after week 13 in the Tony Romo era, going 11-20 ATS in week 14 or later. They won in this spot last week, but they were playing purely with emotion after what happened the day before with Josh Brent and Jerry Brown. Now that they’ve had a week for it to settle in, they could really struggle like the Colts did after they beat the Packers and like the Chiefs did last week. The Steelers are also healthier than they were last week with LaMarr Woodley returning and David DeCastro making his season debut. The Cowboys could be missing top receiver Dez Bryant.

However, it appears the Steelers are favored by 1.5, which changes things. The Cowboys are now home dogs, a situation they are actually 2-1 ATS in since 2009. The Steelers are 5-15 ATS as non-divisional road dogs in the Mike Tomlin era. The Cowboys are also now the ones who are dogs before being favorites as they are dogs here, but they are expected to be home favorites for the Saints next week. The line value has also shifted in their favor because the real line is a pick em, based on the net points per drive method. That does hold up to DVOA, as well. Finally, the Steelers are publicly backed (though not a huge public lean) and the public always loses money in the long run.

I’m still taking the Steelers. They are still good off a loss as favorites, even as favorites. The Cowboys still struggle to cover at home. They may be good as home dogs, but it’s a limited sample size. They also still struggle in December and they could be in a bad spot now that the Josh Brent and Jerry Brown situation has settled in. They may be missing Dez Bryant as well.

The Steelers, on the other hand, might be healthier than they’ve been all season. This will be the first time all season that Ben Roethlisberger, Troy Polamalu, James Harrison, and LaMarr Woodley will play in the same game. Ike Taylor may be out, which hurts, but this is still the healthiest they’ve been all season sadly. The real line doesn’t take that into account, so we still may be getting line value with the Steelers. While the Steelers struggle as non-divisional road dogs, they are 1-1 ATS in that situation off a loss. This is a must win off a loss, so I can’t see them overlooking the Cowboys like they might in another situation. Teams are 99-62 ATS since 2002 as non-conference favorites before being divisional favorites.

Finally, while the Steelers aren’t dogs, the line is still below 3 and since I would have loved the Steelers as dogs, it doesn’t make sense to just take the Cowboys because the Steelers are now favorites of less than 3. It’s just not a significant play anymore. This reminds me of Giants/Cowboys a few weeks ago, when I wanted to take the Giants for a big play, expecting them to be dogs, but they ended up being road favorites. I still took them anyway for a small play and they covered.

Public lean: Pittsburgh (60% range)

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Dallas Cowboys 17

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -1.5 (-110) 2 units

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Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 15 NFL Power Rankings (#11)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 15 NFL Power Rankings, Steelers

Last week: 7 (-4)

Record: 9-4

Net points per drive: 0.11 (13th)

DVOA: -0.5% (15th)

Weighted DVOA: 2.1% (13th)

If they can win week 16 against the Bengals, they should still be in the playoffs regardless, even after a loss to the Chargers at home. The Bengals really missed a chance at home for Dallas this week. I think they get that one and while they’re at it, I think they win in Dallas and at home for Cleveland and run the table. 10-6 will mean the 5 seed and a road playoff game in the first round and they have documented road issues over the past couple of seasons. I don’t think they’d win in New England or Denver, so they better hope they get the Ravens in the first round. That would be a tough game too, but at least they already won there.

Studs

QB Ben Roethlisberger: 22 of 42 for 285 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception, 5 drops, 1 batted pass, 2 hit as thrown, 2 spikes, 100.3 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 24 of 48 drop backs (2 sacks, 3 scrambles, 8 of 19, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception, 2 hit as thrown, 3 drops)

WR Mike Wallace: Caught 7 passes for 112 yards and 2 touchdowns on 11 attempts on 49 pass snaps, 3.1 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 1 penalty

CB Keenan Lewis: Allowed 3 catches for 10 yards and a touchdown on 9 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

MLB Larry Foote: 4 solo tackles, 3 assists, 3 stops, 2 quarterback hits and 1 quarterback hurry on 16 blitzes, allowed 1 catch for 6 yards on 3 attempts

MLB Lawrence Timmons: 11 solo tackles, 7 penalties, 1 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 9 blitzes, allowed 1 catch for 11 yards on 2 attempts

SS Troy Polamalu: Did not allow a catch on 1 attempt, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 penalty

RE Brett Kiesel: 1 quarterback hit and 4 quarterback hurries on 41 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

P Drew Butler: 7 punts for 332 yards, 2 inside 20, 3 returns for 35 yards, 42.4 net yards per punt

Duds

RB Isaac Redman: Rushed for 0 yards (5 after contact) on 2 attempts, 1 broken tackle, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 2 pass block snaps, did not catch a pass on 1 attempt, 1 drop

LT Max Starks: Allowed 4 quarterback hurries on 51 pass block snaps, 1 penalty

LG Willie Colon: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 14 pass block snaps, 1 penalty

LG Maurkice Pouncey: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 51 pass block snaps, run blocked for 6 yards on 3 attempts

C Doug Legursky: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 6 yards on 4 attempts

WR Antonio Brown: Caught 4 passes for 35 yards and a touchdown on 8 attempts on 48 pass snaps, 2.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

CB Curtis Brown: Allowed 6 catches for 84 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle, 1 penalty

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San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 14 NFL Picks, Chargers, Steelers

San Diego Chargers (4-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5)

A lot of trends say the Chargers are the right side. Teams are 102-57 ATS as dogs before being favorites over the past 2 seasons and the Chargers are favorites next week at home for the Panthers. Meanwhile, road dogs are 57-33 ATS off back-to-back losses as home dogs since 1989. Philip Rivers is also deadly in December, even when their season is over, as it really has been in the last 2 Decembers. He’s 21-10 ATS in week 14 or later, including 6-2 ATS since 2010, and 8-2 ATS as dogs. Meanwhile, on the Steelers side of things, they are coming off an emotional, close comeback win against the divisional rival Ravens as big underdogs and they might not get up for the crappy Chargers. Favorites are 9-17 ATS as a close win (1-3) as touchdown plus divisional favorites since 1989.

However, all the trends said the Chargers would beat the Bengals and Ravens too as small home favorites. Here’s something I wish I knew 3 weeks ago. The Chargers are 1-9 ATS over the past 2 seasons as non-divisional dogs. They don’t get up for these games and it probably won’t be any different this week now that it’s essentially gotten out that everyone in San Diego is going to be canned at the end of the season. Besides, the Chargers have to go across the country for a 1 PM ET game as a West Coast team, a situation teams normally struggle in. The Chargers are 1-6 ATS in this spot under Norv Turner.

Calculating real line for this one wouldn’t make a ton of sense because of the fluidity of these two team’s injury situations. Obviously Ben Roethlisberger returns this week, but Troy Polamalu’s return last week should be an equally big deal. After all, their defense allows about 6 points per game fewer since the start of the 2009 season with Polamalu in the lineup rather than without him. They have other major injuries, but the sheer fact that Roethlisberger and Polamalu will be in the lineup in the same game for the first time since week 1 is a pretty big deal. Ike Taylor and LaMarr Woodley being out is important, but then again, they won without both last week.

On the Chargers’ side, their offensive line is in shambles. Already missing left tackle Jared Gaither, who has been replaced by Mike Harris, an undrafted rookie who is playing exactly like you’d expect an undrafted rookie left tackle to play, the Chargers are missing right tackle Jared Gaither, Harris, and left guard Tyronne Greene in this one. This offensive line already surpassed the Cardinals as the worst rated offensive line in the league last weeks, in terms of pass block efficiency. The fact that they’re having to go even deeper into their depth in this one is a very bad sign, especially against Dick LeBeau’s complex blitz schemes.

It’s definitely not a big play on the Steelers because of all of the trends in the Chargers’ favor, but the Chargers probably won’t get up for this game. My biggest concern is that now that they are no longer small dogs, the trends will start to matter as they’ll no longer need to win straight up to cover. They haven’t won straight up against anyone other than the Chiefs since week 2 (when they beat the crappy Titans and before that they beat the crappy Raiders), but they could easily get a backdoor cover here like they did in a very similar situation in Denver a few weeks back. The Steelers are still the play though.

Public lean: Pittsburgh (60% range)

Sharps lean: PIT 18 SD 2

Final thoughts: Tempted to boost this to 2 units, but I’m terrified of the backdoor cover. I just have the feeling that now that the Chargers won’t need to win to cover, they’ll get it done and screw me over if I make this any bigger.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 San Diego Chargers 13

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -7.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 14 NFL Power Rankings (#7)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 14 NFL Power Rankings, Steelers

Last week: 10 (+3)

Record: 7-5

Net points per drive: 0.18 (12th)

DVOA: -0.4% (15th)

Weighted DVOA: 2.7% (13th)

Studs

TE Heath Miller: Caught 5 passes for 97 yards on 6 attempts on 36 pass snaps, 11.4 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

CB Keenan Lewis: Allowed 3 catches for 35 yards on 8 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 4 solo tackles, 1 penalty

FS Ryan Clark: Allowed 1 catch for 5 yards on 1 attempt, 1 interception, 3 solo tackles

SS Troy Polamalu: Was not thrown on, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 quarterback hurry on 2 blitzes

ROLB James Harrison: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 19 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 5 stops, 1 missed tackle

K Shaun Suisham: 5 kickoffs, 2 touchbacks, 67.8 yards per kickoff, 21.6 opponent’s average starting distance, 3/3 FG (41, 42, 46)

Duds

RT Kelvin Beachum: Allowed 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 1 quarterback hurry on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for -5 yards on 2 attempts

MLB Lawrence Timmons: 4 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle, allowed 3 catches for 39 yards on 3 attempts

LE Ziggy Hood: 1 sack on 30 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

NT Casey Hampton: Did not record a pressure on 18 pass rush snaps, no tackles

RE Brett Keisel: 2 quarterback hurries on 37 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens: Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 13 NFL Picks, Ravens, Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5) at Baltimore Ravens (9-2)

2 weeks ago, the Steelers were riding high at 6-3, including a recent win over the Giants in New York and looked like they had a chance to take control of the division with a win at home against the then 7-2 Baltimore Ravens. However, Ben Roethlisberger got hurt late against Kansas City and has been unable to play in each of their last 2 games, both Pittsburgh losses.

Now they head into Baltimore once again without Roethlisberger and the Ravens, with a win, have a chance to take a 4 game lead on the division, holding the tiebreaker, with 4 games to go, which would eliminate the Steelers from contention in the division. Not many people are giving them much chance to win here as the line is Baltimore -8.5 and the public is still on Baltimore. I’m not giving them much chance to win either, but I really like getting 8.5 points with the Steelers, especially since the public is on Baltimore. The public loses in the long run always, so I fade them as much as I can.

Since Ben Roethlisberger took over as the Steelers’ quarterback full time in week 3 of the 2004 season, he’s missed 15 games with injury, with this being his 16th. You might not expect it, but they are actually 10-5 ATS without him (including 5-3 ATS when Charlie Batch starts) in those 5 games and while they are 0-5 straight up against the Ravens, they have not lost a single one of those games by more than 6 points. In fact, they haven’t lost a single game without Roethlisberger by more than 6 points.

This is because this team is so much more than Roethlisberger and it always has been. However, with him out, teams tend to overlook them and at the same time, their talented supporting cast tends to step up. You saw it against Baltimore 2 weeks ago. If it wasn’t for Byron Leftwich getting hurt and playing the whole game injured, the Steelers could have easily won that game.

Even still, they lost by just 3 and covered the 3.5 point spread for a 5-unit pick of the week for me. Their offense outscored the Ravens’ offense and they outgained them by over 100 yards, but lost because they lost the turnover margin 2-0 and because they allowed a special teams touchdown. The Steelers defense is still awesome, ranking 5th in points per game allowed and 1st in yards allowed, by over 200 yards. This week, they return Troy Polamalu from injury, which no one seems to be talking about, but over the past 3 years, they allow about 6 points per game fewer when he’s in the lineup. That matters.

Last week, they lost to the Browns in Cleveland, but the Browns are an underrated bunch who hasn’t been blown off the field by anyone. It was a classic letdown game for the Steelers, between two tough games with the Ravens, and they had a very fluky 8 turnovers. How fluky? That’s happened 13 times since 1989. That won’t happen again. Turnover differentials are incredibly inconsistent anyway. And they still only lost by 6.

The Ravens, meanwhile, aren’t really blowing anyone out. They’ve won 2 games by more than 10 points all season and only 3 of their 9 wins have come by a touchdown or more. Actually, 5 of their 9 wins have come by a field goal or less. They’ve won their last 16 at home, but they are only 7-8-1 ATS in those 16 games and less than half (7) have come by more than a touchdown, including just 2 this season. 2 of their 5 home wins have come by a field goal or less and another one against Cleveland went down to the final play. Meanwhile, in the last 3 seasons, they’re just 4-9 ATS as touchdown home favorites. They’re winning games, but not blowing people out. I don’t think they’ll blow out the Steelers, who almost never get blown out, even without Roethlisberger.

These games are always close anyway. In their last 12 matchups, only 2 have been decided by more than 7 points either way and only one by double digits. If this game were in Pittsburgh with Baltimore missing Joe Flacco and the Steelers as 8.5 point favorites, I’d take the Ravens. I can’t see a game between these two being a blowout. The Ravens are overrated too. While they are 9-2, they rank just 9th in net points per drive, as well as 9th in DVOA and weighed DVOA. Yards aren’t everything, but they’re getting outgained in yards on the season. Calculating real line in this one wouldn’t make sense because of the injury situation, but just know that Baltimore is not as good as their record would suggest.

The Steelers, meanwhile, might be undervalued because of their fluky loss last week. At the very least, last week’s loss opened up a powerful trend in their favor in that they are road dogs off a road loss. Teams are 83-47 ATS in this spot since 2008. Since 2002, teams are a ridiculous 19-9 ATS in that spot when both games are divisional. It’s a big play on the Steelers. I really like this to be a close game. Once again, it’s a 5-unit pick of the week.

Public lean: Baltimore (60% range)

Sharps lean: PIT 8 BAL 4

Final update: No surprise that not a lot of people made this one of their top-5 picks of the week, because of the week long uncertainty surrounding Roethlisberger’s status. With him out and this line firmly above a touchdown, I really like the Steelers. They always play teams close without Roethlisberger. The Ravens almost always play teams close regardless. And these games are almost always close. The Steelers probably won’t win, but I’d be shocked if it was a blow out.

Baltimore Ravens 20 Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +8.5 (-110) 5 units

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Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#10)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Steelers

Last week: 10 (+0)

Record: 6-5

Net points per drive: 0.18 (12th)

DVOA: -1.3% (18th)

Weighted DVOA: 0.2% (16th)

Tier 3: Former Super Bowl champs who could be scary if they get hot

Studs

RG Ramon Foster: Did not allow a pressure on 41 pass block snaps, run blocked for 1 yard on 1 attempt

MLB Lawrence Timmons: 8 solo tackles, 2 assists, 6 stops, 1 missed tackle, allowed 4 catches for 44 yards on 5 attempts, 1 interception

CB Ike Taylor: Did not allow a completion on 3 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 1 solo tackle

ROLB James Harrison: 1 sack on 20 pass rush snaps, 7 solo tackles, 2 assists, 6 stops

RE Brett Keisel: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 33 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 2 solo tackles, 3 stops

Duds

QB Charlie Batch: 20 of 34 for 199 yards and 3 interceptions, 1 throw away, 1 batted pass, 1 drop, 50.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 5 of 35 drop backs (1 sack, 2 of 4, 1 throw away)

RB Jonathan Dwyer: Rushed for 19 yards (15 after contact) on 9 attempts, 1 broken tackle, 1 fumble, caught 2 passes for 9 yards on 2 attempts

RB Rashard Mendenhall: Rushed for 7 yards (4 after contact) on 4 attempts, 2 fumbles

RB Chris Rainey: Rushed for 17 yards (15 after contact) and a touchdown on 5 attempts, 2 broken tackles, 1 fumble, caught 4 passes for 15 yards on 4 attempts, 4 kickoff returns for 75 yards

RB Isaac Redman: Rushed for 7 yards (6 after contact) on 2 attempts, 1 fumble, caught 1 pass for 15 yards on 1 attempt

WR Mike Wallace: Caught 1 pass for 11 yards on 7 attempts on 40 pass snaps, 9.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 2 interceptions when thrown to

MLB Larry Foote: Allowed 3 catches for 34 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts, 6 solo tackles, 2 assists, 4 stops, 2 missed tackles

SS Will Allen: Allowed 3 catches for 23 yards on 3 attempts, 1 solo tackle, 2 assists, 2 missed tackles

LE Ziggy Hood: 1 quarterback hurry on 28 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Browns, Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) at Cleveland Browns (2-8)

Charlie Batch will start this one for the Steelers. He should have started against the Ravens to begin with. He’s always been a solid backup quarterback who can win games when Ben Roethlisberger is hurt (5-2 SU and 5-2 ATS since joining the Steelers). I think he’s a better quarterback than Byron Leftwich. He’s also a better fit for Todd Haley’s quick throw, timing based offense.

He certainly should have come into the game when Byron Leftwich got hurt. Leftwich’s injury made him even more limited as a quarterback and as a result they lost. Batch probably would have been able to convert that 7-0 lead into a victory given how their defense was playing. Either way, the Steelers are definitely in better hands with Charlie Batch under center this week.

Even with Leftwich playing hurt, the Steelers almost knocked off the Ravens, only losing by 3. They outgained them by over 100 yards, but lost the turnover battle 2-0 and allowed a special teams touchdown. Even with the mere 3 point loss, the Steelers improved to 10-4 ATS without Ben Roethlisberger since he took over as the starter in week 3 of 2004.

This week, the Steelers get another familiar foe, the Cleveland Browns. The Browns are in a really bad spot this week after coming so close, but losing to the Cowboys in overtime last week. Excluding road dogs, teams are 18-46 ATS off a road overtime loss (6-14 ATS as home dogs) since 2002. They’ll be exhausted this week for a still tough Steeler team. Since the divisions realigned in 2002, the Browns have won 2 games against the Steelers (out of 21) and have only once been favored or dogs of 1 (they didn’t cover).

Even without Roethlisberger, the Steelers should be able to improve to 20-2 against the Browns as the Browns aren’t a noticeably improved team this year as opposed to the past decade and the Steelers always still play tough without Roethlisberger. Besides, Brandon Weeden will probably be a sitting duck this week against Dick LeBeau’s complex defensive scheme. Dick LeBeau is 17-1 all time against rookie starting quarterbacks, including a blowout victory this season over Robert Griffin III. Weeden is no RGIII.

The only reason this isn’t a bigger play on the Steelers is because this is a sandwich game for them. Teams are 58-81 ATS as favorites after a loss as dogs and before being dogs since 2008. The Steelers lost against Baltimore last week, now are favorites, and then go to Baltimore next week. When all 3 games are divisional, teams are 0-3 ATS in that time period (it doesn’t happen very often) and if we go back to 1989 to get a bigger sample size, the trend is 13-22 ATS.

The logic behind that is that the Steelers have just played a tough game, lost, and now have another tough game next week. They might overlook the lowly Browns and see this as an easy win to get themselves back on the right track before a tough game and get caught off guard. That being said, they are only 1 point favorites and it’s unlikely they overlook the Browns given that they are still playing without their starting quarterback. Besides, Mike Tomlin is 17-10 ATS off a loss, including 5-3 ATS as favorites off a loss as dogs, since taking over in 2007. It’s 3 units on the Steelers and it would have been 4 or 5 if they were dogs and they weren’t publicly backed (as I’ve mentioned, the odds makers have had a rough 3 week stretch and are due for a big week).

Public lean: Pittsburgh (70% range)

Sharps lean: PIT 6 CLE 5

Final update: No change.

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -1 (-110) 3 units

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Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#10)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Steelers

Record: 6-4

Last week: 9 (-1)

I have no idea what Mike Tomlin was thinking leaving Byron Leftwich out there when he was clearly hurt. There’s no real difference in talent level between him and Charlie Batch; in fact, I thought Batch should have been the starter in the first place after Ben Roethlisberger was ruled out. He’s a better fit for their quick throw, timing based offense and he’s always been decent and able to manage the game for them in the past when Roethlisberger has been hurt. I think they would have beaten Baltimore if Batch had started or if Batch had come in after Leftwich scored that touchdown and got hurt.

With Leftwich hurt, it looks like Batch will start until Roethlisberger gets back, which should be at least two more weeks. They play Cleveland and Baltimore in those 2 games and they should be able to go 1-1 in those 2 games (the Steelers are now 8-6 without Roethlisberger). As long as Roethlisberger returns by the playoffs, they should be fine. They’ve basically lost the division, but they should be able to make the playoffs. They have a 2 game lead over everyone else in the AFC for a playoff spot right now, except Cincinnati, who they own the tiebreaker against. If Polamalu can return for the playoffs too, that would also be very, very helpful to any of their Super Bowl ambitions. It’s unfortunate they’ll have to go on the road in the playoffs, without a division title, because they do struggle on the road generally.

Studs

RG Ramon Foster: Did not allow a pressure on 45 pass block snaps, run blocked for 21 yards on 5 attempts

LT Max Starks: Allowed 1 sack on 45 pass block snaps, run blocked for 13 yards on 3 attempts

RB Jonathan Dwyer: Rushed for 55 yards (26 after contact) on 12 attempts, 1 broken tackle, caught 3 catches for 26 yards on 3 attempts

CB Keenan Lewis: Allowed 8 catches for 62 yards on 12 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 penalty, 8 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops

CB Ike Taylor: Allowed 1 catch for 5 yards on 6 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle, 2 stops

FS Ryan Clark: 4 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle, allowed 2 catches for 16 yards on 2 attempts

ROLB James Harrison: 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 22 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 5 solo tackles, 5 stops

LE Cameron Heyward: 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 25 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 2 assist, 1 stop

Duds

QB Byron Leftwich: 18 of 39 for 201 yards and 1 interception, 3 thrown away, 1 hit as thrown, 55.7 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 16 of 43 drop backs (3 sacks, 1 scramble, 4 of 12, 2 throw aways, 1 hit as thrown)

WR Mike Wallace: Caught 4 passes for 26 yards on 7 attempts on 41 pass snaps, 2.3 YAC per catch

RT Mike Adams: Allowed 2 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 3 quarterback hurries on 45 pass block snaps, run blocked for 15 yards on 3 attempts

WR Jerricho Cotchery: Caught 2 passes for 22 yards on 5 attempts on 29 pass snaps, 1.0 YAC per catch, 2 penalties

RB Rashard Mendenhall: Rushed for 33 yards (18 after contact) on 11 attempts, caught 3 passes for 17 yards on 3 attempts

RE Brett Keisel: 1 quarterback hit on 35 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 1 assist

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Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#10)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Steelers

Last week: 7 (-3)

Record: 6-3

Ben Roethlisberger’s injury hurts, but the sky isn’t falling. In Roethlisberger’s career, they are 8-5 when he doesn’t play, starting with his first start week 3 of 2004. They have a 2 game lead over the rest of the AFC for a playoff spot. 9-7 should get you a playoff spot in the AFC and the Steelers just have to go 3-4 to do that against a schedule that isn’t very hard. This really hurts their chances of taking the division (which was up for the taking with 2 games in 3 weeks against an overrated division leading Baltimore squad), but they should still be able to make the playoffs and if they can get everyone healthy for the playoffs (including Troy Polamalu), they’ll still be dangerous.

Studs

RE Brett Keisel: 2 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 3 quarterback hurries on 31 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 3 solo tackles, 5 stops

LOLB LaMarr Woodley: 2 quarterback hurries on 19 pass rush snaps, 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle

MLB Lawrence Timmons: Allowed 2 catches for 14 yards on 4 attempts, 1 interception, 5 solo tackles, 4 stops, 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 7 blitzes

Duds

RB Isaac Redman: Rushed for 21 yards (11 after contact) on 8 attempts, 1 fumble, caught 2 passes for 18 yards on 3 attempts, 1 drop

FB Will Johnson: Caught 1 passes for 7 yards on 2 attempts, 1 drop, run blocked for 9 yards on 3 attempts

ROLB James Harrison: Did not record a pressure on 19 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops

NT Casey Hampton: Did not record a pressure on 12 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop

RB Chris Rainey: 1 punt return for 0 yards, 1 fumble, was not thrown to on 2 pass snaps

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