Steelers

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Ravens, Steelers

Baltimore Ravens (7-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3)

Ben Roethlisberger is out for this one. How can the Steelers possibly beat the 7-2 Ravens? That’s the question that everyone seems to be asking this week and apparently no one can come up with an answer as the public is pounding Baltimore as road favorites here. However, as is often the case with the public on heavy leans, I think they’re going to be wrong. There is a simple answer to that question: they’ll beat them the same way they normally beat teams without Ben Roethlisberger.

Since he took over as starter full time during week 3 of 2004, Ben Roethlisberger has missed 13 games. The Steelers are 8-5 in those 13 games, a winning percentage of 62%. When he does play, they have a winning percentage of 70%. It’s a difference, but not a huge difference and that’s just at first glance. If we exclude overtime losses, the Steelers are 8-2 in games without Ben Roethlisberger as they’ve lost 3 of those 5 games in overtime. Going off that, none of those 5 losses has come by more than 6 points, including 3 losses that would have still covered this 3.5 point spread.

It’s true that they have lost 4 times to the Ravens without Ben Roethlisberger (why does he always miss these games?!), but by a combined 15 points, including 3 games decided by just a field goal. In the Joe Flacco era, both of the Ravens’ games against the Roethlisberger-less Steelers have been decided by 3 points, two final scores that would equal a Pittsburgh cover if they were to happen this week and these aren’t the same Ravens as they have been in the past (more on that later).

Overall without Roethlisberger, the Steelers are 9-4 ATS, including 4-0 ATS as dogs. This year’s defense might not be quite the same as their defenses have been in the past. After all, they’ve had a top-3 scoring defense in 6 of the last 8 seasons. They are missing Troy Polamalu. However, that being said, they rank 7th in opponent’s scoring and 1st in opponent’s yardage, so it’s not like their defense is playing badly. In fact, they’re playing very well. Besides, in the two seasons they did not have a top-3 defense, they still covered in both instances without Ben Roethlisberger.

It’s not just defense that’s winning them these games without Roethlisberger. The whole team seems to play better. They’re a prideful bunch and never roll over easy without Roethlisberger. Mike Tomlin (under whom they are 6-2 ATS without Roethlisberger) will have them playing for pride with everyone doubting them against a Ravens team that did beat them twice last year. They’ll definitely want revenge for those losses, in addition to wanting to shut up the critics.

Given all that, it’s ridiculous that the Steelers are +3.5 here at home. A week ago, this line was -5.5. Roethlisberger is good, but he’s certainly not worth 9 points. And even if Roethlisberger hadn’t gotten hurt and this line had stayed -5.5, I would have picked the Steelers. The rate of sustaining drives differential method gives us a real line of Pittsburgh -7 and the yards per play differential method gives us a real line of Pittsburgh -4.5 and if you average those, you do get slightly higher than -5.5. Obviously, those two formulas don’t do a ton of good in a game where one team is missing a Pro-Bowl quarterback, but at the same time, this line should not have moved 9 full points.

The reason Pittsburgh deserved to be around -5.5 or -6 with Roethlisberger is that the Ravens are overrated. Before last week, this team had not won a single game by 10 or more since week 1 and only one was decided by more than a touchdown, 2 weeks ago at Cleveland, a game in which the lowly Browns actually scored more frequently than the Ravens, but frequently imploded in field goal range and had to settle for 5 field goals. During that stretch, they’ve had two less than stellar performances against the Browns, a 3 point road win against the lowly Chiefs, a near home loss to the Cowboys, and a blowout loss in Houston. Before last week, this team hadn’t done anything remotely impressive since a 31-30 home win against the Patriots week 3.

Their defense has been destroyed by injuries and ranks 27th in yards per game allowed, while the offense ranks just 17th, producing more than 40 yards per game less than their defense allows. Because of Joe Flacco’s inconsistencies, they remain a unit that cannot be relied on weekly to win the game for them if the defense isn’t playing well.

Even in last week’s blowout win over the Ravens, they got outgained. They rank just 8th in yards per play differential and 18th in rate of sustaining drives differential. They’re pretty overrated right now and would have deserved to be dogs of 6 or so in Pittsburgh with a healthy Ben Roethlisberger on the Steelers’ side. They certainly don’t deserve to be 3.5 point favorites in Pittsburgh with the Steelers missing Roethlisberger. For reference, they were -3.5 in Cleveland two weeks ago and had trouble covering the spread. You can’t tell me the Steelers are equal to the Browns now.

Aside from that, the Steelers are in a good spot, part of why I would have taken them even had Roethlisberger not gotten hurt and had the line stayed put. Teams are 10-3 ATS after a home overtime win as double digit favorites since 1989. Meanwhile, teams are 32-24 ATS off a home win of 3 or fewer as double digit dogs. Almost losing as big favorites tends to serve as just as good of a wakeup call as actually losing. Mike Tomlin is 17-10 ATS off a loss and 25-18 ATS off a game in which the Steelers failed to cover. He’s also 5-3 ATS in divisional revenge games and, as I mentioned, the Ravens beat the Steelers twice last year.

In addition to all of those trends, two kick in now that Pittsburgh is a dog. Dogs before being favorites are 92-52 ATS since 2011. The Steelers go to Cleveland next week. Meanwhile, Mike Tomlin is 3-1 ATS as dogs against the Ravens.  I really like the Steelers this week. At the very worst, they should be able to keep this within a field goal again so getting the 3.5 is key. I have a feeling the Steelers pull out the straight up win, however. Everyone is doubting them and they’re traditionally good even without Roethlisberger. Meanwhile, the Ravens are overrated.

Public lean: Baltimore (90% range)

Sharps lean: PIT 17 BAL 6

Final update: Glad to see that the sharps agree with my pick of the week.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Baltimore Ravens 20 Upset Pick +170

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +3.5 (-110) 5 units

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Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 10 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Steelers

Kansas City Chiefs (1-7) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)

The Chiefs have yet to lead in regulation through 8 games, the first time a team has done that since 1929 and that team folded after the season. Actually, they were also the first team to do that through 7 games since 1929 as well. However, they aren’t the worst team in the NFL. They don’t rank dead last in either rate of sustaining drives differential or yards per play differential (that distinction belongs to Jacksonville). They rank 24th and 31st respectively in those two statistics and that’s including sometime that the inferior Brady Quinn spent at quarterback.

The reason that those two important statistics say they’re slightly better than their record is their turnover differential. Through just 8 games, they are -20 in turnovers. Even if they tied the NFL single season record of -30 (record is -28 since merger), their turnover differential would be -10 in their final 8 games, two times better than it was in their first eight games. Besides, turnover differentials tend to be inconsistent on a week to week basis, as you can see here. Turnovers aside, they’re not completely horrific.

We are getting line value with them even if you don’t take into account that Brady Quinn spent some time at quarterback. Cassel is the better quarterback and, at the very least, his interception rate will go back to his career average. If you average out those two real line calculations, you get -12 and this line is -12.5. The Chiefs are also in a good spot as road dogs off a road loss, coming off a loss in San Diego this week. Teams are 78-47 ATS since 2008 in that spot. Meanwhile, as well as the Steelers are playing, they’re still not a team built to blow people out and cover a 12 point spread like this without Troy Polamlau, with whom they allow about a touchdown less per game than without over the past few years.

We’re also getting a chance to fade a heavy public lean with Kansas City. As some of you may know, the public killed the odds makers in unprecedented fashion last week, going 12-2 and winning every heavy lean. The odds makers aren’t going broke or anything. They killed the public for the first 8 weeks of the season and are still up on the year, but given that, I would be very nervous to bet on a heavy public lean this week because the odds makers, regardless of whether or not you believe in conspiracy theories, always have a way of bouncing back.

That being said, it’s only a one unit play. Kansas City is too horrible to put more than that on them. They seem to have a knack for being blown out and it’s not just this season. Dating back to 2010, they’ve lost 14 games by 16 or more games, out of 23 total losses. Even from 2010-2011, a stretch in which they went 17-16, they still lost 9 or more by a blowout score. That could happen again here, but I do like the dog. The Steelers are also my survivor pick.

Public lean: Pittsburgh (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Kansas City covers)

Sharps lean: KC 5 PIT 1

Final update: Sharps lean is exactly what I expected. People don’t like Pittsburgh, but no one really wants to take Kansas City either.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Kansas City Chiefs 16 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, GB, SD)

Pick against spread: Kansas City +12.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#7)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Steelers

Last week: 9 (+2)

Record: 5-3

The Steelers have been awfully impressive the last few weeks and even more impressive is that they’re doing it without Troy Polamalu. Over the last few years, they allow about a touchdown less per game when he’s in the lineup as opposed to when he’s not in the lineup, so just a imagine how good they’ll be once he returns. Ben Roethlisberger is quietly having an MVP type season as he’s on pace for 4406 yards, 7.4 YPA, 67.1% completion, and 32 touchdowns to 8 interceptions.

He is 5th in the NFL in QB rating and is on pace for the 2nd best QB rating of his career, behind 2007, when he threw just 404 times on a conservative offense. This year, he’s thrown 298 times on a more pass heavy offense that has had a spotty running game. You could argue this is the best regular season of his career. If they get Polamlau back for the two Baltimore games, they could easily sweep both games against an underwhelming Baltimore team and either way, they’re the favorite in the NFC North.

Studs

RB Isaac Redman: Rushed for 147 yards (121 after contact) and a touchdown on 26 carries, 6 broken tackles, caught 2 passes for 4 yards on 2 attempts

LG Willie Colon: Didn’t allow a pressure on 36 pass block snaps, run blocked for 17 yards on 6 attempts

RG Ramon Foster: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 36 pass block snaps, run blocked for 19 yards on 4 attempts

CB Ike Taylor: Allowed 1 catch for 17 yards on 5 attempts, 1 interception, 4 solo tackles, 3 assists, 1 stop

CB Keenan Lewis: Allowed 1 catch for 10 yards on 5 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 1 batted pass, 2 penalties, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle

LOLB LaMarr Woodley: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 15 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

MLB Lawrence Timmons: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 5 blitzes, 2 solo tackles, 3 stops, allowed 1 catch for 6 yards on 1 attempt

Duds

RT Mike Adams: Allowed 2 sacks and 3 quarterback hurries on 36 pass block snaps, run blocked for 15 yards on 2 attempts

MLB Larry Foote: 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, allowed 4 catches for 54 yards on 4 attempts

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Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants: Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 9 NFL Picks, Giants, Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3) at New York Giants (6-2)

Last week, the Giants won in Dallas in the exact type of game they normally win. They are now 18-7 ATS as road favorites under Tom Coughlin. On the road in general, they are 50-25 ATS under Tom Coughlin, as opposed to 34-38 ATS at home. As home favorites of more than 3, which they are this week, they are 18-26 ATS under Tom Coughlin. This is the exact type of game they normally have trouble with.

This is also the exact time of year they struggle. The Giants are now 53-19 in the first half of the season under Tom Coughlin, but they are also just 27-37 in the 2nd half of the season. Looking at their schedule, we could see something similar happen. This week, after a tough game with the Steelers, they go to Cincinnati, host the Packers, go to Washington, host the Saints, go to Atlanta, go to Baltimore, and host the Eagles. As home favorite of more than 3 after week 8, Tom Coughlin is 5-15 ATS.

Meanwhile, we’re also getting line value with the Steelers. The rate of sustaining drives differential method suggests this line should be New York -4.5, while the points per play differential method suggests this line should be Pittsburgh -1.5. If we average those out, we get New York -1.5, so we’re getting 2 points of line value with the Steelers. We’re also getting the Steelers in a good spot. Dogs before being favorites are 86-49 ATS since 2011. They host Kansas City next week.

Given all this, you might think I’m going to take the Steelers. Well, it was going to, until I found out that because of the hurricane, the Steelers will not be able to stay in a hotel in the North Jersey area before the game, which means they’ll have to fly in Sunday Morning to play this afternoon game. That puts them at a huge disadvantage in terms of game prep for a team that already has had its share of struggles on the road over the past couple years (not as much as dogs). They’re also pretty banged up as Troy Polamalu is out once again and Ryan Clark looks like he’ll join him. I don’t love the Giants or anything, but I can’t take the Steelers.

Public lean: Pittsburgh (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if NY Giants covers)

Sharps lean: PIT 14 NYG 4

Final update: The sharps like Pittsburgh and I get it, but I can’t take the Steelers given that they have to travel on game day. I don’t like the Giants much either, but they’re the pick here, gun to my head. Also, some good news on the injury front for the Giants. Kenny Phillips is expected to return this week. Stevie Brown played very well in his absence, but because Antrel Rolle moves to corner on passing downs, 3 safeties usually get significant action for them on a weekly basis, so having Phillips back, with Brown playing well, is a good thing. Also for Pittsburgh, Jonathan Dwyer and Rashard Mendenhall are both expected to miss this week, meaning Isaac Redman will get the start at running back. They’ve played well in their last few weeks because they’ve run the ball well, but when they haven’t this year, they’ve typically lost.

New York Giants 26 Pittsburgh Steelers 20

Pick against spread: NY Giants -3.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#8)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Steelers

Last week: 15 (+7)

Record: 4-3

After 2 straight wins, the Steelers are back in the AFC playoff picture at 4-3 and that’s despite Troy Polamalu being out. When he’s in the lineup over the last 3 years, they allow about a touchdown less per game when he’s in there so it’s good news that they’ve been playing well without him. Ben Roethlisberger is quietly having an MVP caliber year, completing 66.8% of his passes for an average of 7.4 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. The bad news is that they face Eli Manning and the Giants this week and not only with Troy Polamalu not return, they’ve also lost Ryan Clark with a concussion. They did a good job against Robert Griffin last week as Dick LeBeau’s schemes confused yet another rookie, as he’s now 14-1 against rookie quarterbacks. However, Eli Manning is far from one.

Studs

RB Jonathan Dwyer: Rushed for 107 yards (73 after contact) on 17 attempts, 3 broken tackles, caught 1 pass for 8 yards on 1 attempt

QB Ben Roethlisberger: 24 of 33 for 222 yards and 3 touchdowns, 2 hit as thrown, 3 drops, 102.5 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 13 of 35 drop backs (1 scramble, 8 of 12, 2 touchdowns, 2 hit as thrown, 1 drop)

C Maurkice Pouncey: Did not record a pressure on 36 pass block snaps, run blocked for 32 yards on 9 attempts

RG Ramon Foster: Did not record a pressure on 36 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 1 yard on 2 attempts

RT Mike Adams: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 36 pass block snaps, run blocked for 1 yard on 1 attempt

CB Keenan Lewis: Allowed 2 catches for 23 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts, 3 pass deflections, 1 penalty, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

SS Will Allen: Allowed 1 catch for 31 yards on 5 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 2 quarterback hurries on 4 blitzes, 3 solo tackles, 2 assists

CB Ike Taylor: Allowed 1 catch for 5 yards on 4 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle

MLB Larry Foote: 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 10 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 3 stops, allowed 1 catch for 6 yards on 2 attempts

LOLB Lamarr Woodley: 3 quarterback hurries on 16 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

Duds

LE Ziggy Hood: Did not record a pressure on 32 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist

RE Brett Keisel: Did not record a pressure on 33 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

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Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#15)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Steelers

Last week: 16 (+1)

Record: 3-3

Whether or not the Steelers can make the playoffs really depends on when Troy Polamalu gets back. Their win last week was impressive, until you consider that the Bengals are very good. Without him, they’re a pretty average team overall, but with him, they can definitely make the playoffs. Since 2009, the Steelers are 8-9 in games without Troy Polamalu and allow 21.4 points per game. With him, they are 27-8, allowing 14.4 points per game. He’s already been ruled out for another week against a sneaky tough Washington team.

Studs

RB Jonathan Dwyer: Rushed for 122 yards (114 after contact) on 17 attempts, 4 broken tackles,

QB Ben Roethlisberger: 27 of 37 for 278 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception, 1 throw away, 3 drops, 97.6 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 12 of 40 drop backs (3 sacks, 6 of 9, 1 touchdown, 2 drops)

C Doug Legursky: Did not allow a pressure on 42 pass block snaps, run blocked for 86 yards on 10 attempts

WR Antonio Brown: Caught 7 passes for 96 yards on 8 attempts on 38 pass snaps, 5.3 YAC per catch

CB Keenan Lewis: Allowed 2 catches for 16 yards on 5 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

CB Ike Taylor: Allowed 1 catch for 8 yards and a touchdown on 2 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist

LOLB Lamarr Woodley: 1 interception, 2 quarterback hits on 19 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops

Studs

WR Mike Wallace: Caught 8 passes for 52 yards on 14 attempts on 38 pass snaps, 4.8 YAC per catch, 3 drops

MLB Larry Foote: 2 solo tackles, 4 assists, 1 stop, 1 quarterback hurry on 4 blitzes, didn’t allow a completion on 2 attempts

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 7 NFL Picks, Browns, Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-3)

What is wrong with the Steelers? After their recent loss in Tennessee, that’s all anyone can ask. Well, the problem is twofold. The first reason is that they just suck on the road as favorites outside of the division. They won 12 games last year and still barely beat Curtis Painter and Tyler Palko. This year, they’ve lost to Oakland and Tennessee.

In fact, in the Mike Tomlin era, generally a successful one, they are 5-15 ATS on the road outside of the division as favorites. Just like the Oakland loss, after which they beat Philadelphia at home, I don’t put a ton of stock into last week’s “surprising loss.” Inside the division, they are 6-5 ATS in that spot in that same time period and 10-6 ATS dating back to 2004, so I’m not worried that they’re favored on the road here again.

The other issue is injuries and this one could be more lingering and have a bigger effect on this game. Last week, already missing LaMarr Woodley and Troy Polamalu, they lost Maurkice Pouncey, Marcus Gilbert, Rashard Mendenhall, and Isaac Redman. Woodley is back this week, which is huge because it means, unless he reinjures himself, this will be the first game all season that LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison will both play in its entirety.

Maurkice Pouncey is also expected to suit up, which is very good news because backup Doug Legursky has time and time again proven himself to be an incapable replacement. Gilbert, however, will be out, which will hurt. Both Mendenhall and Redman will be as well, leaving Jonathan Dwyer to carry the load spelled by Baron Batch and Chris Rainey. However, they haven’t been a good run all year, so they’re not losing much.

The big injury is Troy Polamalu. He’s out once again this week. Since 2009, the Steelers are 7-9 in games without Troy Polamalu and allowed 21.9 points per game. With him, they are 27-8, allowing 14.4 points per game, with him. That’s not all him, but a lot of that is him. He’s their only irreplaceable defensive player and his mere presence can disrupt passing plays and running plays.

However, on the Bengals side, things aren’t going too well either. After starting 3-1, they’ve lost back-to-back games in upset fashion and despite being favored in 5 of their first 6 contests, they sit at just 3-3. Now they enter a tough stretch in which they could be dogs in 6-8 of their next 10. Last week, I picked against Cincinnati at Cleveland, expecting them to be caught looking forward to this big game, with Andy Dalton knowing he’s never beaten a playoff team or either the Steelers or Ravens (a combined 0-5 against those 2 and 0-9, assuming Baltimore makes it this year, against playoff teams).

However, now they’re home dogs after a loss as road favorites. Teams are 49-34 ATS in this spot since2008, including 11-4 ATS when both games are divisional. It makes sense. Last week, a team was good enough to be road favorites, then they lose, and now they’re home dogs all of a sudden. Besides, road favorites before being home dogs is a bad spot as teams have gone 67-102 ATS in that spot since 1989. Teams tend to be focused more on being home dogs than being road favorites and as a result are often better prepared for their next game than their opponent. They also can be undervalued off a disappointing game.

The Bengals, however, are not. Because of the Steelers’ “surprising loss”, this line has actually shifted more towards Cincinnati’s side, going from -3 in favor of Pittsburgh to -1. We’re getting line value with the Steelers, even if it’s very little. The yards per play method of computing line value suggests Pittsburgh should be favored by 3, while the rate of sustaining drives method suggests this should be a pick em. It’s very little line value, but it’s there and we also get a chance to bet against an overreaction. It’s also possible this is one of those “shruken line” games I’ve mentioned in early write ups. With dogs being 57-32 ATS on the year, it makes sense that the odds makers would shrink some lines to get more favorites to cover so the public doesn’t catch on and just start picking all dogs.

At the end of the day, I like Pittsburgh to continue their divisional dominance and their overall dominance of this matchup. The Steelers are 30-20 ATS in the division under Ben Roethlisberger, 25-17 ATS as favorites, and 10-6 ATS as road favorites. He’s also 13-4 ATS against the Bengals. Andy Dalton has still never beaten a playoff team and they’re looking pretty overrated, just like I predicted preseason, having lost to Cleveland and Miami, with wins against only Cleveland, Jacksonville, and Washington. I haven’t bet on them once this year and they’re 2-3-1 ATS, including 0-2 ATS in their last 2. I don’t intend to change that this week, as long as we don’t get field goal protection with the Bengals, though it’s a small play because there’s a lot of uncertainty in this one.

Public lean: Pittsburgh (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Cincinnati covers)

Sharps lean: CIN 19 PIT 7

Final update: I’m going to drop down a unit. I don’t really have a good feel for this one and the sharps like Cincinnati.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Cincinnati Bengals 20

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -1 (-110) 1 unit

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Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#16)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Steelers

Last week: 10 (-6)

Record: 2-3

Since 2009, the Steelers are 7-9 in games without Troy Polamalu and allowed 21.9 points per game. With him, they are 27-8, allowing 14.4 points per game, with him. That’s not all him, but a lot of that is him. He’s their only irreplaceable defensive player and his mere presence can disrupt passing plays and running plays. He’s been ruled out for a critical divisional contest in Cincinnati this week already and they need him to return as soon as possible or they could miss the playoffs for the 3rd time in the Ben Roethlisberger era. Not so coincidentally, those two seasons in which they missed the playoffs have been the only two times in the Ben Roethlisberger era they haven’t had a top-3 scoring defense. Right now, they rank 17th in points per game, but 5th in yards per game allowed.

Studs

LG Willie Colon: Did not allow a pressure on 43 pass block snaps, run blocked for 22 yards on 6 attempts

RB Isaac Redman: Rushed for 14 yards (11 after contact) on 5 carries, 1 broken tackle, caught 4 passes for 105 yards on 4 attempts

CB Cortez Allen: Allowed 3 catches for 9 yards on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 3 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 4 blitzes

FS Ryan Clark: 11 solo tackles, 3 stops, allowed 1 catch for 6 yards on 2 attempts, 1 pass deflection

Duds

LT Max Starks: Allowed 8 quarterback hurries on 43 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 2 attempts

WR Antonio Brown: Caught 4 passes for 20 yards on 9 attempts on 36 pass snaps, 1 interception when thrown to

CB Ike Taylor: Allowed 8 catches for 126 yards and a touchdown on 13 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 3 penalties, 6 solo tackles

LE Ziggy Hood: 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 43 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#10)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Steelers

Last week: 11 (+1)

Record: 2-2

The AFC is weak, so the Steelers should be safe and sneak in as a wild card, but the loss of Troy Polamalu hurts. They are obviously hoping it’s just a short term thing. Excluding last week, during which Polamalu left in the middle, the Steelers are now 7-8 since 2009 without him, allowing 21.6 points per game and 27-8, allowing 14.4 points per game, with him. That’s not all him, but a lot of that is him. He’s their only irreplaceable defensive player and his mere presence can disrupt passing plays and running plays. Last week, the Steelers had held the Eagles scoreless on 3 drives before Polamalu went out and ended up giving up 14 points on their next 5 drives. Without him and LaMarr Woodley, the Steelers are at a huge disadvantage this week as they travel on short rest to Tennessee. They are just 3-12 ATS under Mike Tomlin as 3+ road favorites outside of the division.

Studs

RB Rashard Mendenhall: Rushed for 81 yards (50 after contact) and a touchdown on 14 carries, 4 broken tackles, 1 fumble, caught 2 passes for 20 yards on 2 attempts

C Maurkice Pouncey: Did not allow a pressure on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for 34 yards on 8 attempts

RG Ramon Foster: Did not allow a pressure on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for 6 yards on 2 attempts

MLB Lawrence Timmons: Allowed 5 catches for 32 yards on 6 attempts, 8 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops, 2 missed tackles, 2 quarterback hits and 4 quarterback hurries on 17 blitzes

LOLB Jason Worilds: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 19 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 3 stops

P Drew Butler: 4 punts for 185 yards, 1 inside 20, 1 return for 13 yards, 43.0 net yards per punt

ROLB James Harrison: 3 quarterback hits and 1 quarterback hurry on 22 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

Duds

LG Willie Colon: Allowed 2 quarterback hurries on 40 pass block snaps, 4 penalties, run blocked for 33 yards on 5 attempts

WR Mike Wallace: Caught 2 passes for 17 yards on 8 attempts on 40 pass snaps, 1.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

MLB Larry Foote: Allowed 3 catches for 22 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 2 missed tackles

CB Ike Taylor: Allowed 5 catches for 71 yards on 9 attempts, 1 penalty, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans: Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 6 NFL Picks, Steelers, Titans

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-4)

Week 3, the Steelers traveled to play a significantly inferior team, missing two of their top defenders, and yet were still heavily bet by the public as road favorites. They lost outright and a lot of people lost a lot of money. 3 weeks later, the Steelers have had a bye, a 2 point win at home over an Eagles team that once again lost the turnover battle, and the Steelers are in the same exact situation. Apparently the public hasn’t learned because Pittsburgh is once again being heavily bet by the public (and you know how much I love to bet against heavy public leans).

The Steelers absolutely suck on the road against bad teams outside of the division under Mike Tomlin. They are 3-12 ATS as 3+ road favorites outside of the division since Tomlin took over in 2007. They just don’t really seem to care about these games. On top of the Oakland loss, the Steelers won by just 4 in Kansas City against Tyler Palko last year and by just 3 in Indianapolis against Curtis Painter and the eventually 2-14 Colts last year, so don’t tell me the Titans can’t cover this game because they’re not talented enough. None of those teams were either.

On top of that, they will be missing Troy Polamalu and probably LaMarr Woodley. Both were lost last week and on a short week, the odds are really against them being healthy enough to play by Thursday Night. Polamalu has already been ruled out. Against Oakland, both Polamalu and James Harrison were out. Woodley’s loss is easily equal to the loss of Harrison (at this stage in their respective careers), while Polamalu’s injury is the one that really hurts.

Excluding last week, during which Polamalu left in the middle, the Steelers are now 7-8 since 2009 without him, allowing 21.6 points per game and 27-8, allowing 14.4 points per game, with him. That’s not all him, but a lot of that is him. He’s their only irreplaceable defensive player and his mere presence can disrupt passing plays and running plays. Last week, the Steelers had held the Eagles scoreless on 3 drives before Polamalu went out and ended up giving up 14 points on their next 5 drives. His absence will be huge.

Besides, we’re getting a good amount of line value with the Titans. The Steelers have an even yards per play differential and that’s not taking into account their current injury situation or their general struggles on the road against inferior non-divisional teams. If you take the difference of these two team’s yards per play differentials, you get .7. An old gambling formula says to divide that by .15 and add 3 points either way to get the “real” line. Given that, this line should be -1.5 in favor of Pittsburgh, so we’re getting 4.5 points of line value with the Titans at +6, at the very least.

Besides, as strange as it may seem, the Titans are in a good spot coming off back-to-back losses by 20+. Teams in that situation are 33-16 ATS since 2002 and the Titans covered in this exact situation week 3, pulling the home upset over the superior Lions, who were also, not surprisingly, heavily publicly bet. Teams in that situation tend to be both desperate and undervalued and I believe the Titans are both.

Despite the Steelers’ injuries and a lackluster home performance, this line has moved 2 points from -4 to -6 since last week, most likely because of how bad the Titans looked in Minnesota. Meanwhile, at 1-4, this is really the Titans’ last stand. Remember, this team won 9 games last year, so they probably had high hopes for this season. Betting against an undervalued, desperate team is never a good idea.

Tennessee is also a home team on Thursday Night. Home teams are 67-48 ATS on Thursday Night since 1989. Traveling on a short week is rarely a recipe for success. Teams are just 21-23 ATS as home dogs, which makes sense because proven, veteran teams are often much better prepared for a short week like this, which cancels out any advantage of not having to travel.

However, while Pittsburgh is a proven, veteran team, if they have trouble getting up for bad, non-divisional teams on the road normally, why would they be any more likely to do so on Thursday Night, especially with a key divisional match up in Cincinnati on the schedule next. They failed to cover last year on Thursday game and that was at HOME against divisional Cleveland. Meanwhile, while home dogs typically don’t have a big advantage on Thursday Night, home dogs are 18-11 ATS this season, which is something. In this situation, St. Louis covered last week.

This is at the very least a co-pick of the week. It might be my only pick of the week, but it’s at least one of them. I haven’t made a 5+ unit play since week 3, opting to go with three 4-unit co-picks of the week in each of the last 2 weeks instead of a 5-unit pick of the week. I went 5-1 in those games and I was also 2-1 in picks of the week from weeks 1-3, so I’m feeling really confident and want to make at least one 5 unit pick this week. There may be more, but this one is one I really like.

Pittsburgh sucks in this situation and won’t be any better on a short week, especially with a key divisional game on the horizon. They’re also missing two very key defenders, which this spread doesn’t take into account and they’re not playing well overall anyway. Tennessee, meanwhile, is both undervalued and desperate in a “last stand” game at home on a Thursday Night. Finally, we’re getting significant line value and a chance to bet against a heavy public lean. There’s really nothing I don’t like about Tennessee +6 this week. I’m also putting a unit on the under because the under is 67-50 on Thursday night since 1989, including 4-0. Teams are often unprepared offensively on a short week.

Public lean: Pittsburgh (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Tennessee covers)

Tennessee Titans 20 Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Upset Pick +200

Pick against spread: Tennessee +6 (-110) 5 units

Over/Under: Under 42.5