Steelers

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-6)

The Steelers are just 3-6, but they’ve faced one of the toughest schedules in the league, facing a .500 or better team in seven of their nine games. When strength of schedule is factored in, the Steelers actually rank 15th in overall efficiency, right about below average, and they’ve done that without their top defensive player and reigning Defensive Player of the Year TJ Watt for most of the season. In fact, this will be the Steelers’ first game with both Watt and arguably their second best defensive player Minkah Fitzpatrick both in the lineup at the same time since week 1.

The Bengals are better than their 5-4 record as well, with an average margin of victory of 14.0 points per game, leading to them ranking 5th in the league with +43 point differential and ranking 6th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about four points above average. They’re going in the wrong direction injury wise though, missing top wide receiver JaMarr Chase and top cornerback Chidobe Awuzie, leading to the Bengals only having a three point edge over the healthier Steelers in my roster rankings. 

With the Steelers being at home, it’s hard to justify them being 4-point underdogs and my calculated line suggests they should be underdogs of just 1 point. With that in mind, the Steelers are worth betting this week, though this will be a smaller play because the Bengals are in a great spot off of a bye, as road favorites of 3.5 or more cover at a 62.6% rate after a bye. The Bengals don’t deserve to be favored by that many points though, so I’m still pretty confident in the Steelers keeping this close and potentially pulling the home upset.

Cincinnati Bengals 24 Pittsburgh Steelers 23

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +4

Confidence: Medium

New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (3-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-6)

These two teams have similar records, but the Saints have a -15 point differential, despite a -10 turnover margin, while the Steelers have a -77 point differential, with a -4 turnover margin. That suggests the Saints have played much better to this point this season, but the Steelers have also faced a much tougher schedule, one of the toughest in the league and the gap between these two teams in schedule adjusted efficiency is not that wide, with the Saints ranking 15th, about even, and the Steelers ranking 18th, about 1.5 points below average.

The Steelers also are the healthier team this week, with reigning Defensive Player of the Year TJ Watt set to make his return for the first time since week one, while the Saints remain without top wide receiver Michael Thomas, starting guard Andrus Peat, and top cornerback Marshon Lattimore and now will be without starting safety Marcus Maye, starting linebacker Pete Werner, and starting center Erik McCoy. The Saints will get starting wide receiver Jarvis Landry back this week, but they’re still missing a lot of talent.

With the injury situation both teams are in, I have these two teams about even, but this line favors the Saints on the road by a point and a half. My calculated line has the Steelers as the ones who should be slight favorites, so we’re getting at least some line value with them. It’s not quite enough for them to be worth betting against the spread, but the money line is a good value at +105 and the Steelers are the better side for pick ‘em purposes.

Pittsburgh Steelers 19 New Orleans Saints 17 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +1.5

Confidence: Low

Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2022 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (2-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-0)

The Eagles are the league’s last remaining undefeated team, but they’ve been very reliant on the turnover margin, leading the league by far with a +12 turnover margin. That’s a concern because turnovers are not really predictive week-to-week and, in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which is much more predictive, the Eagles rank just 5th, ranking 13th, 7th, and 25th on offense, defense, and special teams respectively. That’s still impressive, but it’s not as impressive as their record and puts them outside the top few teams in the league.

The Eagles are also in a tough spot here having to turn around again and play on Thursday Night Football next week. Favorites cover at just a 42.3% rate before Thursday Night Football and the Eagles, favored by 10.5, could easily take their foot off the gas in the second half and allow a backdoor cover, even if they do manage to get a big lead. We’re not getting much line value with the Steelers, with my calculated line having them as 10 point underdogs, but that would change if TJ Watt ends up making his return this week from a 6-game absence, which seems more likely than not at this point. If that happens and this line doesn’t shift drastically, I will strongly consider a bet on the Steelers.

Philadelphia Eagles 26 Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +10.5

Confidence: Low

Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins: 2022 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (2-4) at Miami Dolphins (3-3)

Two weeks ago, the Steelers were demolished in a 38-3 blowout in Buffalo, losing the first down rate battle by 6.42% and the yards per play battle by 5.17, but they bounced back in a big way last week, pulling an upset victory over the Buccaneers as 9.5-point underdogs. While that was a surprise, it shouldn’t have been too surprising to see those results back-to-back, as teams tend to bounce back in a big way after being blown out, covering the spread at a 58.6% rate after a loss by 35 points or more.

Unfortunately, the flip side of that is also true, as teams tend to struggle after big upset wins, covering the spread at a 41.3% rate after a win as home underdogs of five points or more. That’s primarily because teams tend to be overconfident and overrated after an upset win. In this case, it’s very possible the Steelers could be overconfident, but I don’t think they are overrated. In fact, despite the Steelers’ upset win last week, this line shifted from favoring the Dolphins by 4.5 on the early line last week to now favoring them by 7.5.

That line shift happened because the Dolphins get quarterbacks Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater back from injuries this week, but it was always likely one of those quarterbacks would be back for this game and, even with Tagovailoa under center, 7.5 points is too high. Even when Tagovailoa was healthy earlier this season, the Dolphins’ only win by more than one score came in a game in which they won the turnover margin by 3, but lost the first down rate battle by 0.85% and only won the yards per play battle by 0.18, a concern because yards and first downs are significantly more predictive week-to-week than turnovers.

The Dolphins still rank 11th in schedule adjusted efficiency, which is based on yards per play and first down rate, even with the injuries they’ve had at quarterback, but the Steelers are only 1.5 points behind them, ranked 16th. My roster rankings have a bigger 3-point gap between these two teams, but, either way, it’s hard to justify this line being all the way at 7.5. My calculated line is Miami -4.5, so we’re getting significant line value with the Steelers. 

There’s a chance the Steelers are flat this week after such a big home upset win over the Buccaneers last week, but, even with that taken into account, they are at least worth consideration for a bet. I’m leaving this as a low confidence pick for now, but depending on the status of a pair of key Miami players who are questionable, left tackle Terron Armstead and edge defender Emmanuel Ogbah, I may end up betting on the Steelers.

Miami Dolphins 24 Pittsburgh Steelers 19

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +7.5

Confidence: Low

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2022 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-4)

The Steelers were blown out last week in Buffalo, losing the first down rate battle by 6.42% and the yards per play battle by 5.17 in a 38-3 defeat. That normally is a good thing for their chances of covering the spread this week though, as teams tend to bounce back after a blowout loss, covering the spread at a 58.4% rate after a loss by 35 points or more, with teams tending to be underrated, overlooked, and embarrassed in that spot. 

We did see this line move from favoring the Buccaneers by 6.5 points on the early line to now favoring the Buccaneers by 9.5, but that’s not necessarily an overreaction to the Steelers getting blown out last week, as the Steelers are have significant injury concerns in their secondary now, with talented safety Minkah Fitzpatrick out, as well as their top-3 cornerbacks, Ahkello Witherspoon, Cameron Sutton, and Levi Wallace. This is on a defense that is already far from its best without top edge defender TJ Watt.

Given all of the Steelers’ injuries, my calculated line has the Buccaneers favored by 11 points. That may seem high, but the Buccaneers are one of the best teams in the league, while the Steelers have had a propensity to get blown out in recent years, with 10 of their 17 losses coming by double digits, including playoffs. There’s not nearly enough line value with the Buccaneers to take them confidently given that the Steelers are in the better spot, but the Buccaneers should still be the pick for pick ‘em purposes.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30 Pittsburgh Steelers 20

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay -9.5

Confidence: None

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills: 2022 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3) at Buffalo Bills (3-1)

The Bills won a close game over the Ravens last week, but that was an anomaly for this team over the past two seasons, as they previously were 0-7 in one-score games since the start of last season, including playoffs. The flip side of that is all 14 of their wins over the past two seasons, including playoffs, came by 12 points or more, prior to last week’s 3-point victory in Baltimore. Even with last week’s win taken into account, the Bills have an average margin of victory of 22.1 points per game, leading to them ranking 1st in schedule adjusted efficiency in each of the past two seasons.

That suggests this should be another blowout for the Bills, at home against a Steelers team with a mediocre offense and a defense that is not nearly as good without TJ Watt. The Steelers are just 1-3, rank 23rd in schedule adjusted efficiency, and could be 0-4 if they didn’t win a game week one in which the Bengals turned the ball over five times and missed two makeable game winning kicks, also the only game of the season in which Watt played. That being said, this line is all the way up to 14 and this game actually could be closer than people think, for a couple reasons.

For one, the Bills are not nearly at full strength due to injury. Already without arguably their two best defensive backs Tre’Davious White and Micah Hyde, they’ll be without their third star defensive back Jordan Poyer this week, while tight end Dawson Knox and slot receiver Jamison Crowder are out and every down linebacker Tremaine Edmunds and defensive tackles Ed Oliver and Jordan Phillips are highly questionable. 

The Bills are also in a tough spot with a much bigger game against the Chiefs on deck, with favorites of more than a touchdown covering at just a 42% rate all-time before facing an opponent with a winning percentage 50% higher than their current opponent, which is likely to be the case here. I can’t take the Steelers with any confidence unless all of the questionable Bills are out, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes either way, with the Bills banged up and likely to overlook this game, in between a big win against the Ravens and a game against the Chiefs next week.

Buffalo Bills 26 Pittsburgh Steelers 13

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +14

Confidence: None

New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2022 Week 4 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (1-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2)

I’ve mentioned before that +3.5 covers the spread more than any other number, doing so 53.0% of the time, which is actually a profitable winning percentage even with the vig. That’s because of how many games are decided by exactly 3 points, 1 in 6, with 1 in 4 being decided by 3 points or fewer. This game seems like it has a strong likelihood to be a close game, so I’m drawn to the Jets as 3.5 point underdogs. I do have the Steelers about a point better in my roster rankings than the Jets, but I’m not sure if that justifies this line being at 3.5. This is one of my lower confidence picks, but the Jets are the pick for pick ‘em purposes.

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 New York Jets 17

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +3.5

Confidence: None

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: 2022 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-1)

The Browns lost last week to the Jets, but the Jets needed to score twice within two minutes and recover an onside kick to win a game in which the Browns had a 99.9% chance of winning with less than two minutes left and in which the Browns won the first down rate battle by 13.87% and the yards per play battle by 0.23. Including their week 1 win over the Panthers, the Browns rank 3rd in overall efficiency through two weeks and would be 2-0 if they just recovered an onside kick or if Nick Chubb had taken a knee at the 1-yard line instead of scoring. 

The Browns have faced a pretty easy schedule, but they also rank slightly above average in my roster rankings, despite starting backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett, as they have one of the most talented rosters in the league around the quarterback position. They’ll be short-handed this week without talented edge defender Jadeveon Clowney, but they will otherwise be healthy, including the return of right tackle Jack Conklin, who missed the first two games of the season recovering from a knee injury suffered last season. 

The Steelers, meanwhile, will be without edge defender TJ Watt, probably their most important player. The Steelers’ offense, which ranked 28th in efficiency in 2020 and 30th last season, ranks 31st through two games this season and their defense isn’t nearly as good without Watt. While the Browns could easily be 2-0 right now if they had just recovered an onside kick, the Steelers could easily be 0-2 right now if the Bengals had just made an extra point, in a game the Steelers would have lost despite a +5 turnover margin, which is not a consistent metric week-to-week. The Bengals won the first down rate battle and yards per play battle in that game by 11.36% and 0.22 respectively and that was with Watt playing most of the game.

In terms of overall efficiency, the Steelers rank 30th through two games and, without Watt, they don’t rank much higher than that in my roster rankings. I have these two teams about 5.5 points apart, giving us a calculated line of about Cleveland -7.5 at home, so we’re getting good line value with the Browns as 4.5-point favorites. If the Browns had a 2-0 record and the Steelers were 0-2, I suspect this line would be closer to 7.5, probably around a touchdown and, as I mentioned, that could easily be the case right now, if not for special teams disasters. This isn’t a big play, but I like the Browns enough to bet them this week.

Cleveland Browns 24 Pittsburgh Steelers 16

Pick against the spread: Cleveland -4.5

Confidence: Medium

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2022 Week 2 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (0-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0)

I went 4-3 with my bets last week. The Dolphins/Patriots and Steelers/Bengals games were my two biggest plays that lost, but both games swung significantly on the turnover margin, which is not predictive week-to-week. The Patriots lost by 13 in Miami, but they lost the turnover battle by three and only lost the yards per play battle by 0.18, while winning the first down rate battle by 0.85%, which are both significantly more predictive week-to-week than turnover margins. The Steelers, meanwhile, needed a +5 turnover margin and an injury to the Bengals’ long snapper to win by three in overtime, in a game in which they lost the first down rate battle by 11.36% and the yards per play battle by 0.22.

Coming into the season, I thought the Patriots were an underrated team and the Steelers were an overrated team and last week did nothing to change my opinion on that significantly, given how the games were decided. Both plays likely would have hit (Bengals -6.5 and Patriots +3.5) if both teams played turnover neutral football. If anything, the Steelers are now more overrated and the Patriots are more underrated, with this line not moving significantly from the early line a week ago, favoring the visiting Patriots by only a couple points, despite the Steelers losing edge defender TJ Watt, arguably the most valuable defender in the league.

The general consensus seems to be that they can’t believe the Patriots are favored at all, as the public is all over the underdog, but the Patriots are at least a decent team that should be favored by a significant amount, even on the road, against a team with one of the worst offenses in the league and a defense that will be significantly worse without it’s most important player. My calculated line has the Patriots as 6.5 point favorites, so I like them a lot in a game in which they basically just need to win to cover, especially since the Steelers could be in a look ahead spot, after an exhausting overtime win last week, now facing an 0-1 opponent, with a divisional Thursday night game against the Browns on deck next week. This is my top play this week, hoping for better turnover luck than I had in these two teams’ games last week.

New England Patriots 23 Pittsburgh Steelers 16

Pick against the spread: New England -2

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2022 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-0)

The Steelers have made the post-season in back-to-back years with records of 12-4 and 9-7-1 respectively, but, in order to do that, they’ve needed to go 7-2 and 8-2-1 in one score games in the two seasons respectively, which is highly unlikely to continue into 2022. The Steelers’ defense will probably be better than the 20th ranked unit they were in terms of efficiency last season, but they’re unlikely to be as good as their 3rd ranked finish in efficiency in 2020, while their offense figures to continue to struggle like they have the past two seasons, when they have ranked 28th and 30th in offensive efficiency. 

The Bengals, meanwhile, ranked just 17th in overall efficiency in the regular season last year and needed to win the turnover battle to win three close post-season games, which is not sustainable long-term, but they are significantly improved on the offensive line this off-season, which was a huge weakness for them last season, holding back what should have been an elite offensive unit, given their skill position talent and their quarterback play. Despite their offensive line improvements and the Steelers offensive struggles, the Bengals are just 6.5-point home favorites over the Steelers.

Including playoffs, 10 of the Steelers’ 13 losses over the past two seasons would have covered this 6.5-point spread and the Bengals are the caliber of team that should be able to give them another 7+ point loss, as they did in 14-point and 31-point victories last season. My calculated line actually has the Bengals favored in this one by 12.5 points, so we’re getting quite a bit of line value with them as just 6.5-point home favorites. This is one of my favorite plays of the week, as I don’t expect this to be a close game.

Cincinnati Bengals 30 Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -6.5

Confidence: High