Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers: 2021 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3-1) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-4)

Typically the rule of thumb with the Chargers is to bet them on the road and bet against them at home. The Chargers hardly have any fans in Los Angeles and usually play in front of mostly road crowds, which means they don’t have a typical homefield advantage, but it also means they tend to be underrated away from home. Overall, the Chargers are 21-13 ATS on the road and 13-21 ATS at home since moving to Los Angeles.

However, the Chargers do have one big advantage this week, with this game being at night against an Eastern Time Zone opponent, the Pittsburgh Steelers. A Pacific Time Zone team covers at about a 67% rate all-time in a night game against an Eastern Time Zone team, regardless of where the game is played. The Steelers are likely to be feeling much more tired in the second half because they are accustomed to a later time zone, which should allow the Chargers to pull away. It doesn’t help matters for the Steelers that they are coming off of a long overtime game, which resulted in a tie. There is limited history, but teams are just 11-17 ATS all-time after a tie, so the Steelers could be especially tired in this game.

The Chargers only have one win this season by more than six points and, dating back to the start of last season, they have just three wins by more than six points, with one coming against the Chiefs backups in a meaningless week 17 game and another coming against the eventual 1-15 Jaguars. That makes it tough to confidently bet on the Chargers as 6-point favorites, but the Steelers are missing some key personnel and, despite their record, might be among the worst teams in the league right now.

The Steelers have been outscored by 33 points in their three losses, while outscoring their opponents by just 25 points in their five wins and, of course, last week they played to a tie with the winless Lions at home in Pittsburgh. The Steelers did not have quarterback Ben Roethlisberger in that game against the Lions and he will return this week, but the way he has played this season, that barely matters, as he’s not much of an upgrade on Mason Rudolph. It’s very possible the Steelers would have still struggled to pull out a win over the Lions even with Roethlisberger in the lineup.

The Steelers went 12-4 a year ago, but they were not as good as their record, winning a lot of close games against an easy schedule, and they were carried by a dominant defense, with their offense being among the worst in the league. This season, their offense has been about the same, ranking 26th in schedule adjusted efficiency, but their defense has fallen to 20th in schedule adjusted efficiency. In general, it’s much tougher to maintain high level defensive play year-to-year than high level offensive play, but the Steelers lost significant personnel in the off-season and have continued to lose key players to injury, so they have had more regression than most top defenses and will likely see that continue as their injury list grows.

Already without key defensive linemen Stephon Tuitt and Tyson Alualu, the Steelers will now be without Defensive Player of the Year candidate TJ Watt, talented safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, and top cornerback Joe Haden this week. Meanwhile, their offense, which already has one of the worst offensive lines in the league, will be without their best offensive lineman Kevin Dotson. A mediocre team even when not missing all these key personnel, I have the Steelers six points below average in my roster rankings. 

The Chargers didn’t have many blowout wins last season and don’t have many blowout wins this season, but they are still better than they were a year ago and their lack of blowout wins this season probably has more to do with their schedule, which has been among the toughest in the league. They haven’t faced an easy opponent since their week one trip to Washington and it’s arguable that this game against the Steelers at night is an even easier matchup than that.

The Chargers are only two points above average in my roster rankings and shouldn’t get the full homefield advantage adjustment, but we’re still getting good line value at -6 with the Chargers, who are in a good spot and have enough of a talent edge in this game to get a rare multi-score victory. I am not placing a bet on the Chargers right now, because I am hoping this line drops to 5.5 and I want to confirm that Joey Bosa, who still needs to clear COVID protocols, will play, but it’s very possible I will be doing an update and betting this game before gametime.

Update: There has not been confirmation on Bosa’s status, but heavy sharp action on the Steelers has shifted this line down to 5. Bosa will play unless he surprisingly tests positive today, so I want to lock this in before it goes back up as the Chargers are simply a much more talented team than the Steelers, given all that the Steelers are missing.

Los Angeles Chargers 23 Pittsburgh Steelers 13

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers -5

Confidence: Medium

Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2021 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (0-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)

The Pittsburgh Steelers were a 12-4 team a year ago, but many of their wins came by small margins against weak opponents, with a dominant defense masking significant flaws on offense. As their schedule got harder, the Steelers, who won their first 11 games, lost five of their final six games, including a first round playoff exit. Overall, just three of their twelve wins came by more than ten points and their nine games that were within that margin of 10 included teams like the Giants, Broncos, Texans, Eagles, and Cowboys, who all finished 6-10 or worse, as well as a matchup against a Ravens team that was playing many backups due to a COVID outbreak.

Coming into this season, the Steelers’ didn’t look noticeably improved on offense, while their defense had the potential to be significantly worse than last year’s dominant unit, as a result of off-season losses and general regression to the mean. The Steelers have gotten out to a 5-3 start, despite their schedule being tougher than a year ago, but they have not been as good as their record, as their three losses have come by more points combined (33) than their five wins (25). In fact, their biggest margin of victory all season is just seven points.

Despite that, the Steelers are still favored by 8.5 points in this game. The Lions may seem like a team they should be favored by more than a touchdown against, as they are the league’s last remaining winless team, but that doesn’t mean they are the worst team in the league, as many of their losses have been close. On average, their losses have come by an average of 13.8 points per game and their -110 point differential is not the worst in the league, but even that makes it seem like they’ve been blown out more than they have been, as five of their eight losses have been kept within 10 points and one of their three losses by more than 10 points came in a game in which the Lions led the Packers at halftime in Green Bay. 

Overall, the Lions rank 24th, 27th, and 4th in schedule adjusted offensive, defensive, and special teams efficiency respectively, which isn’t too far behind the Steelers, who haven’t been particularly good on any side of the ball this season, ranking 16th, 20th, and 17th respectively in those three metrics. The Lions should also get a boost in this matchup with talented left tackle Taylor Decker set to make his season debut after missing all of the season to this point with injury, a significant re-addition for this team. Given how many close games these two teams tend to play and that the Lions are getting healthier, I have this line calculated at Pittsburgh -5.5, so we’re getting significant line value with the Lions at +8.5.

The Lions’ biggest margin of defeat of the season came in their most recent matchup, a 44-6 defeat at home against the Eagles, but they were likely flat in that matchup after giving their best effort against the Rams in a close loss the week before, and that blowout loss should put the Lions in a good spot this week, as they will be embarrassed after that loss and will likely be much more focused to try to prove people wrong. In total, teams cover at a 58.7% rate all-time after a loss by 35 points or more, in part because teams tend to give their best effort after being embarrassed, but also partially because teams tend to be overlooked after a blowout loss. 

Going off of that, the Lions being winless is another reason they could be overlooked and, typically as a result of being overlooked, winless teams tend to be a good bet this late in the season, covering at a 64.9% rate in week 9 or later. The Steelers are especially likely to overlook the Lions given that they have a much tougher game on deck in Los Angeles against the Chargers on Sunday Night Football next week. Favorites of a touchdown or more cover at just a 42.9% rate before facing an opponent whose winning percentage is at least 50% higher than their current opponent’s winning percentage. With the Lions in a much better spot than the Steelers, who are overvalued as 8.5-point favorites, the Lions are an easy choice in this matchup against the spread and are worth a big play.

Update: I am glad I locked this in at 8.5, because Ben Roethlisberger is out for this game with COVID and the Steelers will turn to backup Mason Rudolph. The line has dropped to 6 as a result. For those wondering, I would still bet the Lions at 6, but not for as big of a play because I don’t think there is much difference between Roethlisberger and Rudolph and a line movement that involved key numbers of 6 and 7 is significant. With Rudolph under center, my calculated line is Pittsburgh -3.5. There is a decent chance the Lions could win their first game of the season this week.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against the spread: Detroit +8.5

Confidence: High

Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2021 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (3-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3)

The Steelers have moved up above .500, but they’re still an underwhelming team overall. Their total margin of victory across their four wins is still less than their total margin of defeat across their three losses, giving them a point differential of -10. In efficiency ratings, they rank 23rd, 11th, and 18th on offense, defense, and special teams respectively. They were a 12-4 team a year ago, but their offense struggled and their wins were primarily because of their defense carrying them to mostly close victories against a relatively weak schedule. This year, their offense has been about the same, while their defense has fallen noticeably from last year’s dominant performance, even if they are still an above average unit.

That being said, I don’t have any desire to bet on the Bears, who are an even more underwhelming team. Their offense has remained stagnant like the Steelers’ offense and like the Bears’ offense has been for years, while their once dominant defense has declined significantly in recent years due to off-season losses and is significantly worse than Pittsburgh’s, especially with edge defender Khalil Mack and safety Eddie Jackson both likely out for this game. We are still getting some line value with the Bears at +6.5 because my calculated line is at Pittsburgh -5, but this is a pick for pick ’em purposes only, as even against an overrated Steelers team, it’s hard to be confident in the Bears covering the spread.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Chicago Bears 13

Pick against the spread: Chicago +6.5

Confidence: Low

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: 2021 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (3-3) at Cleveland Browns (4-3)

The Browns have had among the worst injury luck in the league. In total, they have been without quarterback Baker Mayfield (one game), running backs Nick Chubb (2 games) and Kareem Hunt (1 game), wide receivers Jarvis Landry (4 games) and Odell Beckham (2 games), left tackle Jedrick Wills (2 games), right tackle Jack Conklin (2 games), Jadeveon Clowney (1 game), and cornerback Greg Newsome (2 games) for differing periods of time. Hunt remains out and top cornerback Denzel Ward will join him on the sideline, missing his first game of the season, but the Browns have enough depth at both running back and cornerback to compensate and, in general, the Browns have much more talent available to them this week than they have had most of the season.

Despite their injury issues, the Browns have been better than their record, as their losses have come to the Chiefs, Chargers, and Cardinals, with two of those games being decided by one score. In total, the Browns rank 11th in first down rate, 9th in yards per play, 8th in first down rate allowed, 2nd in yards per play allowed, and 4th in special teams DVOA, making them one of the most impressive and well-rounded teams in the league from a statistical standpoint, despite all of their injury absences to date.

The most questionable injury situation in this game is how effective quarterback Baker Mayfield will be, returning from a one-game absence to play through a serious injury to his non-throwing shoulder, which could knock him out of the lineup again. However, even with Case Keenum under center, I still have the Browns calculated at 10-point favorites over the Steelers. That’s in part because the Browns are healthier now and have played better than their record despite their injury absences, but also because the Steelers are still a little bit overrated. 

The Steelers have managed wins in their last two games but they were facing two teams in the Broncos and Seahawks who are both mediocre without the key players that both are missing due to injury. The Browns, meanwhile, still have one of the most talented rosters on paper even with some significant contributors out. The Steelers still have a good defense, but it’s not nearly as good as it was a year ago when they played well enough to mask a mediocre offense and led this team to an impressive record with a lot of close wins against mediocre opponents.

The Browns are somewhat in a bad spot because they have to turn around and face the Bengals in a tougher divisional game next week and teams cover at just a 41.9% rate all-time at home in a divisional matchup against a team with a .500 record or worse before going on the road and facing another divisional opponent with a record better than .500. However, that should be somewhat offset by the fact that the Browns are in their third of three home games, a spot with a 55.1% cover rate all-time. Even with conflicting trends, there is just too much line value with the Browns to not bet them, as they could beat the Steelers with relative ease even if Mayfield doesn’t play his best football or leaves the game for Case Keenum.

Cleveland Browns 23 Pittsburgh Steelers 14

Pick against the spread: Cleveland -4

Confidence: High

Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2021 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (2-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-3)

The Seahawks are in trouble, sitting at 2-3 in the best division in the NFL, having now lost starting quarterback Russell Wilson for an extended period of time with a finger injury. Wilson hasn’t missed a start since joining the Seahawks in 2012 and has been about as valuable to the Seahawks as any quarterback has been to their team over that time frame. That being said, I do like the Seahawks chances of covering this week in Pittsburgh, as 5-point underdogs.

The Seahawks’ 2-3 record is more the product of a tough schedule and they’ve gotten about league average play from their defense and special teams, so the rest of this roster isn’t terrible. Their offense will obviously take a big hit without Wilson, but teams tend to play at 110% in their first game with a backup quarterback in the lineup and they have a solid offensive supporting cast, led by a talented duo of wide receivers, so the Seahawks aren’t in bad shape, facing a Steelers team that I have about four points below average.

The Steelers’ offense is no better than a year ago and, in fact may be worse, while their defense is still good, but not good enough to offset their offensive performance like they were last season, when the Steelers won a lot of close games against easy competition. The Steelers won week 1 in Buffalo, which was a big surprise at the time, but given how they’ve played in their past four games, only beating a banged up Broncos team, it’s pretty safe to say that week one result was a fluke. 

The Steelers shouldn’t be favored by 5 points over anyone but the worst teams in the league, which is not what the Seahawks are, even without Wilson. My calculated line has the Steelers as just 1.5 point favorites, so there is enough line value to take the Seahawks confidently, with about a third of games decided by 5 points or fewer. I didn’t have any one game I loved this week, so by default this is my Pick of the Week, but that doesn’t mean the Seahawks aren’t a strong value this week.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Seattle Seahawks 16

Pick against the spread: Seattle +5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2021 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (3-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3)

Going into the season, I thought we could see the Broncos make a big jump in win total and at least compete for a playoff spot in the AFC. They upgraded their quarterback situation by adding Teddy Bridgewater and had a promising group of young receivers, while their defense seemed likely to improve due to significant upgrades at their biggest position of weakness, cornerback, as well as the re-addition of top edge defender Von Miller, who missed all of 2020.

The Broncos got off to a good start, winning their first three games and, even though they had a very easy schedule (Giants, Jaguars, Jets) they won all three games by at least 10 points and by an average of 16.7 points, so they were taking care of business and then some. Unfortunately, injuries have started to mount for this team, as wide receivers Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler, edge defender Bradley Chubb, and inside linebacker Josey Jewell have all gone down for an extended period of time just since week one.

The most impactful injury came in their week 4 loss to the Ravens, their first game against a capable opponent and their first loss of the season, a game in which the Broncos lost quarterback Teddy Bridgewater for the game at halftime. Bridgewater will be back this week, but the Broncos were down 14-7 at the time Bridgewater went down and could have easily lost the game even if Bridgewater had stayed healthy, in part due to their other injury absences. On top of that, the Broncos could also be without another key wide receiver Courtland Sutton, who injured his ankle in Friday’s practice.

Fortunately, the schedule does get easier for the Broncos. The Steelers aren’t quite as bad as the three teams the Broncos beat easily to begin the season, but it’s clear their offense is no better than a year ago and, in fact may be worse, while their defense is still good, but not good enough to offset their offensive performance like they were last season, when the Steelers won a lot of close games against easy competition. 

The Steelers won week 1 in Buffalo, which was a big surprise at the time, but given the results of their past three games, it’s pretty safe to say that result was a fluke and that the Steelers will continue struggling to beat capable opponents. My calculated line has the Broncos favored by two points, which doesn’t give us much value, given that this line is actually at Denver -1.5, but there is not nearly enough here to bet on the banged up Broncos with any sort of confidence.

Denver Broncos 19 Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Pick against the spread: Denver -1.5

Confidence: None

Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)

The Steelers have lost at home in back-to-back weeks to the Raiders and Bengals. Injuries have been part of the problem and they will get their top-2 edge rushers TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith back this week, but their problems go beyond their injuries, as their offense remains one of the worst in the league, while their defense isn’t quite as good as a year ago and can’t carry this offense like it could a year ago, when they won a lot of close games against an easy schedule. It’s a tough task to ask the Steelers to go to Green Bay and be competitive with the Packers, who have bounced back in a big way since their shocking week one blowout loss against the Saints. 

The Packers aren’t as good as a year ago as Aaron Rodgers isn’t quite playing at a career best level and key players like David Bakhtiari, Elgton Jenkins, and Za’Darius Smith are out with injury, but I still have them favored by 9 points at home over the Steelers, before even taking into account how dominant the Packers have been at home with Aaron Rodgers, going 45-22 ATS at home in games with fans when Rodgers starts and finishes the game. This isn’t a big bet, but as long as this line is under a touchdown, the Packers are worth a play.

Green Bay Packers 27 Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -6.5

Confidence: Medium

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2021 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (1-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1)

I thought the Steelers were a little overrated coming into the season and, though they did win week one in Buffalo in upset fashion week one, that might have just made them more overrated, as they could not continue that into week two, following up that win over the Bills with an upset loss at home to the Raiders. The Steelers’ offense has continued to struggle mightily, not moving the ball consistently in either game, which is a problem because offensive performance is more predictive than defensive performance and because their once dominant defense is not as talented as it once was due to off-season departures and injuries. 

The Steelers will get Joe Haden and Devin Bush back this week, but remain without Stephon Tuitt and will add Alex Highsmith and Tyson Alualu to their list of injured defensive players, while TJ Watt could be less than his dominant self playing through a significant groin injury. Meanwhile, their offense could struggle even more than normal with Ben Roethlisberger playing through a chest injury that could easily limit him as a passer and wide receiver Diontae Johnson out.

This line has shifted from Pittsburgh -7 on the early line last week to Pittsburgh -3 this week and normally I like to go against significant week-to-week overreactions, but this line was always too high at 7 and sharps are still betting the Bengals heavily at three. I would agree with the sharps this week, not just because the Steelers are overrated, but because the Bengals are a little underrated. I’m not sure if they will be a playoff qualifier, but Joe Burrow has looked good in his return from injury and he’s supported by a much improved receiving corps, offensive line, and defensive unit.

The Bengals beat Minnesota week one and the Vikings, despite losing two close games on the road to open their season, are better than people think because of their improved defense, while the Bengals loss in Chicago last week was mostly the result of their -3 turnover margin, as they averaged 1.22 yards per play more than the Bears in an eventual 3-point loss. Yards per play differential is much more predictive than turnover margin, which bodes well for the Bengals going forward. I actually have the Bengals a few points better than the banged up Steelers, so we’re getting significant line value with the Bengals as underdogs of a field goal on the road. I like their chances of pulling the outright upset and even if they don’t, we have a field goal to work with. This is worth a big play even if we’re not getting as much line value as we were getting a week ago.

Cincinnati Bengals 17 Pittsburgh Steelers 16 Upset Pick +150

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +3

Confidence: High

Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2021 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Las Vegas Raiders (1-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0)

Both of these teams pulled upset wins in week one, the Steelers winning as 6.5-point underdogs in Buffalo and the Raiders winning as 4-point home underdogs against the Ravens. The Raiders’ upset was less surprising, as they had the clear emotional edge at night, against an east coast team that travelled cross country, in their first game with fans in the building since moving to Las Vegas, and that emotional edge could swing the other way this week, leading to the Raiders being much flatter for this trip cross country to Pittsburgh.

That being said, this line still overrates the Steelers, favoring them by 6.5 points. I get the feeling that their win over the Bills was more about the Bills being worse than expected than it was about the Steelers being better than expected. Their defense remains dominant, but it was a concerning performance for their offense, which looks likely to be held back by inconsistent offensive line and quarterback play all season and defensive play tends to be less consistent week-to-week than offensive play. It’s hard to back a team like that against a capable opponent when favored by this many points. The Steelers should win, but I would pick the Raiders for pick ‘em purposes, even if they are not likely to be as emotionally charged as a week ago.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Las Vegas Raiders 13

Pick against the spread: Las Vegas +6.5

Confidence: Low

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills: 2021 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at Buffalo Bills (0-0)

The Steelers won 12 games last season, but their offense was a big problem, as they ranked 28th in first down rate over expected at -2.83%. Many are expecting them to be better on offense, after using their first round pick on running back Najee Harris and with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger another year removed from his elbow injury, but first round running backs usually aren’t a good value and it’s unclear how Roethlisberger will hold up over the course of the season, after looking better in very limited pre-season action. 

The Steelers also are likely to be noticeably worse on the offense line, having to replace four starters from a year ago with low cost options, the most promising of whom, Zach Banner, is out for the start of the season. The Steelers’ defense led them to their impressive record last season, but they lost some key players this off-season and will also be without stud defensive lineman Stephon Tuitt to begin the season due to injury. Defensive performance is also significantly less predictive than offensive performance and the Steelers likely wouldn’t be able to rely on being as dominant defensively as they were a year ago, even if they did return all of their key players. 

After ranking 11th in schedule adjusted first down rate differential at +1.46% a year ago and winning 12 games against an easy schedule, the Steelers are likely to see a steep drop off in their win total and should be underdogs of at least a touchdown in Buffalo against one of the best teams in the league. Let’s take advantage of the Steelers being a little overrated in what should be another multiscore victory for the Bills, who beat the Steelers by 11 late last season.

Buffalo Bills 27 Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -6.5

Confidence: High