Texans

Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers: 2016 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (6-5) at Green Bay Packers (5-6)

The Texans are 6-5, but their 6 wins have come by a combined 36 points, while their 5 losses have come by a combined 78 points, with none of them being closer than 7 points. As a result, they have a -42 point differential that ranks 26th in the NFL and they rank 27th in first down rate differential. The Packers, meanwhile, are coming off of a huge win in Philadelphia on Monday Night Football last week and, now healthier on defense than they’ve been in recent weeks, could be ready to go on a run. They enter this game 13th in rate of moving the chains differential and have more in common with the 5 teams that have beaten the Texans (New England, Minnesota, Denver, Oakland, San Diego) than the 6 teams that have lost to the Texans (Chicago, Kansas City, Indianapolis, Detroit, Jacksonville).

The Texans will also be without outside linebackers Jadeveon Clowney and John Simon with injury, leaving them very thin on the edge. The problem is we’re getting no line value with the Packers, as this line has shifted from 3.5 on the early line last week to 6.5 this week, as a result of Green Bay’s win in Philadelphia and Houston’s home loss to the Chargers. The Packers should be able to give the Texans another loss by 7+ points, but I couldn’t bet money at 6.5 with any sort of confidence. The Packers are the pick in pick ‘em polls, but this is a no confidence play.

Green Bay Packers 27 Houston Texans 20

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -6.5

Confidence: None

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San Diego Chargers at Houston Texans: 2016 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 12 NFL Picks, Chargers, NFL Picks, Texans, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (4-6) at Houston Texans (6-4)

The Chargers are just 4-6, but they’ve been significantly better than their record this season. All 6 of their losses came by 8 points or fewer, so they’ve been competitive in every game. Their +14 point differential is solid and they rank 7th in first down rate differential thanks to a +24 first down differential. They’re also healthier coming out of the bye, getting middle linebacker Denzel Perryman, wide receiver Travis Benjamin, and safety Jahleel Addae back from injury this week. The Texans, meanwhile, are not nearly as good as their 6-4 record. Their 6 wins have come by a combined 36 points, while their 4 losses have come by a combined 70 points, giving them a point differential of -34 that ranks 26th in the NFL. In terms of first down rate differential, they rank 27th in the league.

Neither of these teams’ records are indicative of their talent level or how they’ve played thus far this season. However, this line seems to take that into account, as the Chargers are 1.5 point road favorites. As a result, we’re not really getting any line value with them. I’m still going to take the Chargers because they’re in a better spot than the Texans (the Chargers host the Buccaneers next week while the Texans go to Green Bay) and because they’ve been a good road team over the past two seasons (9-4 ATS), but there’s not enough here for me to be confident in them.

San Diego Chargers 20 Houston Texans 17

Pick against the spread: San Diego -1.5

Confidence: Low

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Houston Texans vs. Oakland Raiders: 2016 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (6-3) vs. Oakland Raiders (7-2) in Mexico City

The Texans are 6-3, but rank just 26th in first down rate differential. That’s because their 5 wins have come by a combined 36 points, while their 3 losses have come by a combined 63 points. Their -27 point differential is also just 26th in the NFL. The Raiders have also had a lot of close wins, as 5 of their 7 wins have come by a touchdown or fewer, and they rank just 18th in first down rate differential. They’ve played a lot better in recent weeks though, with 2 of their last 3 wins coming by double digits, including a huge 10-point home victory over the Broncos before their bye. Coming into the season, I thought they were one of the most talented teams in the league and they’re finally playing like it.

That being said, this line is pretty high at 6, considering this isn’t even a true home game for the Raiders. From what I’ve heard, the Raiders have a relatively strong following in Mexico, but the Texans are one of the closest teams to the border, so they probably have some support there as well. Even if we give the Raiders a point for homefield advantage, that means the Raiders are 5 points better than the Texans. At their best they might be, but they’ve been inconsistent this season and are not exactly blowing teams out regularly, so the points are the safer bet in this game.

Oakland Raiders 17 Houston Texans 13

Pick against the spread: Houston +6

Confidence: Low

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Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (5-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6)

The Texans are 5-3, but rank just 25th in first down rate percentage. That’s because their 5 wins have come by a combined 33 points, while their 3 losses have come by a combined 63 points. Their -30 point differential is also just 25th in the NFL. All 5 of their wins came at home against average or worst opponents, with none coming by more than a touchdown. Their 3 losses, meanwhile, came in their 3 road games and were all blowouts. The Jaguars are not the Vikings, Patriots, or Broncos, the Texans’ 3 road opponents to date, but that doesn’t mean this game will be easy for them, given that they’ve struggled for most of the season.

Looking at Jacksonville’s 2-6 record, you’d think they’ve struggled for most of the season as well, and they have played very poorly at times, but much of their struggles have been the result of a league worst -12 turnover differential. Last week, they likely would have beaten the Chiefs in Kansas City if not for a -4 turnover differential. Despite that -4 differential, it was still just a 5 point game, as the Jaguars won the first down battle 25 to 10. Turnover differentials tend to be very inconsistent from week-to-week. For example, teams that have a -4 turnover differential in a game like the Jaguars did last week, on average, have a +0.1 turnover margin the following week and cover at a 53.2% rate as a result.

The Jaguars actually enter this game 10th in first down rate differential. Outside of those 12 plays, they really haven’t been bad this season and if they play just turnover neutral football going forward they figure to win significantly more games in their final 8 games than their first 8 games. On paper, they have a reasonable roster and are relatively healthy right now. These two teams are at least even so the Jaguars should be at least field goal favorites at home here, meaning we’re getting a decent amount of line value with the Jaguars as mere 1 point home favorites. The Jaguars are worth a bet.

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 Houston Texans 16

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville -1

Confidence: Medium

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Detroit Lions at Houston Texans: 2016 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (4-3) at Houston Texans (4-3)

The Texans are 4-3, but their 4 wins have come by a combined 26 points, while their 3 losses have come by a combined 63 points, giving them a -37 point differential, which is 6th worst in the NFL. They rank just 26th in first down percentage differential, thanks to an offense that has scored just 9 offensive touchdowns on 81 drives in 7 games this season. However, they were exposed nationally last week on Monday Night Football in a 27-9 loss in Denver, so they’re no longer overrated. This line has shifted from 3 in favor of the Texans on the early line last week to 2.5 this week, a significant half point swing considering about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. Despite that, the public is still all over the Lions.

The Lions aren’t much better than the Texans, entering the 20th in first down percentage. This line is about where it should be, especially with the Lions missing top cornerback Darius Slay. That being said, I’m still taking the Lions because the Texans are in a bad spot, as small home favorites before a bye. Teams in this spot historically tend not to cover, as home favorites of 1 to 5.5 are just 38-63 ATS before a bye since 2002. Detroit is the pick, but I would need to get the full field goal to put any money on them.

Houston Texans 20 Detroit Lions 19

Pick against the spread: Detroit +2.5

Confidence: Low

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Houston Texans at Denver Broncos: 2016 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (4-2) at Denver Broncos (4-2)

I’m torn on this one. On one hand, this line has for some reason gotten higher in favor of Denver in the past week, climbing from 6.5 to 9, even though the Texans won at home against the Colts and the Broncos lost on the road to the Chargers. Nine points is a lot of points to give with a team like Denver whose offense has disappeared in the past 2 weeks, causing the Broncos to drop back-to-back games after an impressive 4-0 start.

Ordinarily, 2 bad games after 4 good ones wouldn’t be a reason for concern, especially considering one of those games was started by a backup quarterback, but the Broncos struggled mightily on offense all last season and needed to pull off a lot of close victories to not just win the Super Bowl, but even get into the playoffs. They won just 3 regular season games by more than 7 points all last season. They’ve already won 3 games by more than 7 points this this season, but their recent offensive skid is cause for concern. Trevor Siemian is an underwhelming talent and inexperienced starter at quarterback and the league may be figuring him out. Their issues go beyond the quarterback position, as their running game and offensive line have really struggled in the past 2 weeks and they lack a capable 3rd receiver in the passing game.

On the other hand, it’s hard to argue that the Broncos are not still a tough opponent, particularly at home, given how good their defense is. The Texans are not as good as their 4-2 record suggests as their 4 wins have come at home by a combined 26 points against the likes of Tennessee, Kansas City, Indianapolis, and Chicago and they’ve gotten crushed in their two road games against tough opponents, losing by 27 in New England (who was playing a 3rd string quarterback) and 18 in Minnesota. They rank just 18th in first down percentage differential and are even less talented than that suggests because they’re without top defender JJ Watt for the season. I’m taking the Texans, but I can’t be confident at all.

Denver Broncos 17 Houston Texans 9

Pick against the spread: Houston +9

Confidence: None

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Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts: 2016 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (2-3) at Houston Texans (3-2)

The early line had the Texans as 3.5 point home favorites here over the Colts, but the line has been at 3 this week. That’s only a half point, but considering 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal and 1 in 4 games are decided by less than a field goal, it’s a significant half point. Right now, this line suggests these two teams are not even, which has not been true thus far this season. The Texans enter this game 22nd in first down percentage, while the Colts enter in 29th, thanks to a defense that ranks dead last in first down percentage allowed.

Something will have to give, as the Texans come in dead last in first down percentage on offense. The Texans have scored just 6 offensive touchdowns in 5 games this season, despite off-season additions of wide receiver Will Fuller and running back Lamar Miller. That’s because their offensive line has been a mess, thanks to injuries and off-season departures, while free agent acquisition quarterback Brock Osweiler has been even worse than last year’s quarterback Brian Hoyer thus far this season, at a price of 18 million annually. The defense has been strong, but is not the same without the injured JJ Watt, so I’m not confident in Houston, but, all things considered, Houston is the better team. Indianapolis’ Andrew Luck is one of the best quarterbacks in the league, but the Colts have one of the worst rosters around him in the league.

Houston Texans 24 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against the spread: Houston -3

Confidence: Low

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Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings: 2016 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (3-1) at Minnesota Vikings (4-0)

The Vikings are the NFC’s only 4-0 team (the Eagles are 3-0), on the strength of a +10 turnover margin and a +3 return touchdown margin. That’s very impressive, but it’s also unsustainable. In fact, there’s almost no week-to-week correlation in turnover margins; teams that have strong turnover margins in one week are just as likely to have poor turnover margins the following week as any other team. If the Vikings are going to continue winning, they’re going to have to play better and won’t be able to rely on the turnover margin.

The offense is the side of the ball with the most need for improvement, as they rank 30th in offensive first down percentage. Both with and without Adrian Peterson, they’ve struggled to run the ball, largely as a result of an offensive line that has been very shaky and is missing both week 1 starting offensive tackles with injury, Matt Kalil and Andre Smith. They’re not in a good spot to improve offensively this week, as Houston enters with the 2nd best defense in the league in terms of first down percentage allowed. The Texans haven’t faced a tough schedule so far and are not the same unit without JJ Watt, but the Vikings are expected to be without top wide receiver Stefon Diggs with injury. Without him, the Vikings are very weak at the wide receiver position. There’s just not a lot of talent around Sam Bradford on this offense right now.

The Texans, meanwhile, get left tackle Duane Brown back from injury after the talented blindside protector missed the first 4 games of the season with a quad injury. He’ll be a boost to an offense that has ranked 31st in offensive first down percentage thus far this season, though the Vikings’ defense is a very tough matchup. Even without defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd, who is injured, the Vikings rank 6th in first down percentage allowed, despite a pair of early games against the Packers and Panthers.

Both teams have weak offenses and strong defenses and they’re much more even than this line suggests. Especially in what figures to be a low scoring affair, getting 7 points is a dream. I wouldn’t put this line any higher than 4. The Texans are better than the Giants, against whom the Vikings were just 5 point favorites last week with a healthy Stefon DIggs. The one thing that prevents this from being my Pick of the Week is the fact that the Vikings are going into a bye. Big favorites tend to take care of business going into a bye, as home favorites of 6 or more are 61-22 ATS before a bye since 2002. However, usually big home favorites are significantly superior to their opponents, which is not the case in this game, as the Vikings do not deserve to be touchdown favorites. It’s a big play.

Minnesota Vikings 16 Houston Texans 13

Pick against the spread: Houston +7

Confidence: High

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Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans: 2016 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (1-2) at Houston Texans (2-1)

I’m glad I locked this one in at 7 earlier in the week, because the line has since shifted to 5 thanks to a season ending injury to 3-time Defensive Player of the Year JJ Watt. Either way, I’d take the Titans for a big play. About 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer and the difference between these two teams in terms of talent is not enough to warrant this high of a line, especially without Watt. The Titans only won 3 games last year, but that was largely due to injuries and close losses. They added a good amount of talent this off-season, especially through the draft, and are at least a capable opponent. They rank 16th in rate of moving the chains differential (RMCD) through 3 games and that’s right about where I’d rank them as a team, in the middle of the pack. This line underrates them.

The Texans are also a middle of the pack opponent at best, especially without their best defensive player. On the season, they rank 14th in RMCD. Their defense has been strong this season, but they’ve also scored just 3 offensive touchdowns all year and are coming off of a game in which they were shut out by the Patriots. They also remain without left tackle Duane Brown. This line should be much closer to 3 because these two teams are pretty evenly matched talent wise. I’m taking the points for a big play and expecting a close game and possibly a Tennessee straight up victory.

Houston Texans 20 Tennessee Titans 17

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +7

Confidence: High

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Houston Texans at New England Patriots: 2016 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (2-0) at New England Patriots (2-0)

Last week, the early line was 3.5 in favor of the hometown New England Patriots. When I saw that, my first thought was New England was likely to cover. Home non-divisional favorites on Thursday nights are 34-16 ATS since 1989. Thursday night games are tough enough for players, but they’re especially tough when you have to go on the road and face a comparable or better opponent, unless that opponent is a divisional opponent that you play twice a year. This game fit all 3 criteria and the Patriots had proven themselves to still be a tough opponent, even without Tom Brady, with a win in Arizona week 1.

Of course, the Patriots lost backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo last week, which changed matters a lot. Now the Patriots are in a tough situation, scrambling to get 3rd string quarterback Jacoby Brissett, a 3rd round rookie out of NC State, ready to start on a short week. That also changed the line as now the Patriots are underdogs of 3 points at home. That seems like far too drastic of a swing. In fact, the New England/Arizona line only shifted about 6 points immediately after Brady’s suspension was upheld.

The Patriots went from leading 24-3 when Garoppolo went down to barely hanging on by the final score of 31-24 aftewards, but that’s not really an indictment on Brissett. The Patriots’ defense played a lot better in the first half than the second half and Brissett didn’t even have that many pass attempts, as the Patriots just tried to run out the clock with what was once a big lead (as high as 31-3 at one point). Brissett only threw 9 passes in a little over a half, completing 6 of them for 92 yards. Two of the 3 incompletions were drops by Julian Edelman that were not in the best spot. All in all, for coming into the game cold off the bench, Brissett wasn’t bad and could conceivably lead a run heavy offense to victory, though he’s a major question mark.

The Texans have a strong defense so the Patriots are unlikely to win a shootout, but they have a good defense as well and figure to be able to keep the Texans’ offense in check on a short week. The Texans remain without left tackle Duane Brown with injury, while the Patriots are reportedly likely to get back both linebacker Dont’a Hightower and tight end Rob Gronkowski from injury. One in 6 games are decided by a field goal or less, so I like the Patriots’ chances of at least keeping this one close at home. They’re 41-22 ATS as underdogs under Bill Belichick, including 8-6 ATS without Brady, and 12-3 ATS as home underdogs under Bill Belichick, including 2-1 ATS without Brady. In some places, this line has dropped to 1.5-2.5, in which case this is a lower confidence play, but it’s a money play at 3 for sure.

New England Patriots 16 Houston Texans 13 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: New England +3

Confidence: Medium

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