Texans

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans: 2016 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 2 NFL Picks, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Texans, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) at Houston Texans (1-0)

The Texans are in a tough spot this week, as they’re favored by 2 at home against the Chiefs, but have to turn around and play in New England in 4 days after this game on Thursday Night Football, a game in which they’ll definitely be underdogs. As a result, they could easily look past the Chiefs a little bit here at home. Teams are just 48-71 ATS as favorites before Thursday Night Football. The Chiefs, meanwhile, host the Jets next week, an easier matchup, and figure to be more focused. Underdogs are 80-56 ATS since 2012 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs.

I’ve been holding out all week waiting for the line to move to 3 on this one, but it doesn’t look like it’s going to happen and the line is now even as low as 1 or 1.5 in same places, after opening at 2.5. That’s likely the result of big bets by sharp bettors on the Chiefs, so downward line movement is actually a good sign here. It’s more or less all the same under 3, though obviously try to get this as high as possible if you can. The Chiefs are banged up early in the season, missing running back Jamaal Charles and outside linebacker Justin Houston, but backup Spencer Ware has replaced Charles well and the Texans are missing key players too, without left tackle Duane Brown, center Nick Martin, and middle linebacker Brian Cushing, while JJ Watt does not look 100% off of back surgery. I like the Chiefs to come in and win this one outright in “upset” fashion.

Kansas City Chiefs 17 Houston Texans 13 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Kansas City +2

Confidence: Medium

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Chicago Bears at Houston Texans: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 1 NFL Picks, Bears, NFL Picks, Texans, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0)

There are a few games this week where I think the line is too high and the underdog has a good chance to win. I think this line is too high at 6 in favor of Houston, but I still expect the Texans to win. They’re the slightly better team and they’re at home. I just think 6 points is too many to pass on. People like Houston because they added at the skill positions this off-season, adding quarterback Brock Osweiler, running back Lamar Miller, wide receiver Will Fuller, but Osweiler is overrated and unproven, while Fuller is still a rookie.

People also seem to be overlooking their issues on the offensive line. With talented left tackle Duane Brown out with injury to start the season, the Texans are missing 3 starters on the offensive line last year, including free agent departures Ben Jones and Brandon Brooks, neither of whom was adequately replaced. On defense, they need JJ Watt to be 100%, which is somewhat in question after off-season back surgery. On the other side, the Bears aren’t a great team either, but they’re comparable to Houston in terms of talent. This line should be closer to 3 than 6. It’s not tough for me to put money on it, but Chicago should be the right side.

Houston Texans 17 Chicago Bears 13

Pick against the spread: Chicago +6

Confidence: Low

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Houston Texans 2016 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Texans, Uncategorized

Quarterback

The Texans have gone 18-14 over the past 2 seasons, since ex-Penn State head coach Bill O’Brien took over as head coach of a previously 2-14 team. They’ve done that despite remarkably playing 7 different quarterbacks: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mallett, Case Keenum, Tom Savage, Brian Hoyer, Brandon Weeden, and TJ Yates. Their offense wasn’t horrendous in 2015, as they finished 22nd in rate of moving the chains, but their defense was definitely what carried them to a divisional title and a home playoff game, as they finished 3rd in rate of moving the chains allowed.

Of course, the Texans got blown out in that home playoff game, losing 30-0, as Brian Hoyer completed just 15 of 34 passes for 136 yards and 4 interceptions. The game was a lot closer than a final score, as the Chiefs didn’t score an offensive touchdown until after stud defensive end JJ Watt went out for the game with an injury in the third quarter, but the way Hoyer played that game, the Texans didn’t stand a chance, no matter how well their defense played. It’s not indicative of how Hoyer played all season. He just had the worst game of his season at the worst time. However, he wasn’t great in the regular season either, completing 60.7% of his passes for an average of 7.06 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions in 9 starts, leading a mediocre Texan offense and finishing 31st out of 38 eligible quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus.

It was obvious the Texans needed a quarterback and, rather than waiting for one to fall to them at 22 in the draft or trying to move up on draft day, the Texans addressed the quarterback position early in free agency, signing ex-Bronco quarterback Brock Osweiler to a 4-year, 72 million dollar deal and releasing Hoyer. I’m really not sold on Osweiler being worth that much though. His overall numbers weren’t bad in 7 starts with the Broncos in 2015, completing 61.8% of his passes for an average of 7.15 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, while grading out 20th out of 38 eligible quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus. However, the Broncos’ offense struggled with him under center, moving the chains at a mere 68.66% rate in the 6 games he started and finished.

The Broncos had offensive issues beyond the quarterback position, but the Broncos’ offense was barely worse in the 8 regular season games Peyton Manning started and finished and Manning was one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL last season. That’s despite the fact that the Broncos ran the ball a lot better in the second half of the season, when Osweiler made all of his starts. The fact that the Broncos were willing to go back to Manning instead of Osweiler when he returned from injury, as much as Manning had struggled to start the year, and is telling, as is the fact that the Broncos wouldn’t offer Osweiler any more than 45 million over 3 years.

Osweiler was just a 2nd round pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, so he wasn’t exactly in high demand coming out of college, and he’s made just 7 starts since then, so we have a very limited sample size. There was some promise in that sample size, but it’s hard to justify paying him more than the Broncos would offer when they’re the ones who know him best. I know Houston was desperate for a quarterback, but so were the Broncos and I’m not sure Osweiler is a huge upgrade over Hoyer, though he obviously has way more upside, only going into his age 26 season.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

With struggles under center and a great defense supporting them, it should come as no surprise that the Texans’ offense has ranked in the top-5 in carries in each of the past 2 seasons (551 carries in 2014 and 472 carries in 2015). However, they’ve really struggled on the ground, averaging just 3.80 yards per carry over that time period. They needed an upgrade at running back as much as they needed an upgrade at quarterback this off-season and they got a good one, signing ex-Dolphin Lamar Miller to a 4-year, 26 million dollar deal.

Miller has averaged 4.59 yards per carry on 638 career carries in 4 years in the league and has finished in the top-7 among running backs in pure run grade on Pro Football Focus in back-to-back seasons (joining Marshawn Lynch and Le’Veon Bell as the only running backs who can say that). However, he’s gotten just 410 carries over those past 2 seasons, turning them into 1871 yards and 16 touchdowns (4.56 YPC). In 2014, you could blame his struggles in the passing game for his overall low usage, but there was no excuse in 2015, when he graded out above average as a pass blocker for the first time in his career and added 47 catches for 397 yards and 2 touchdowns in the air on an offense that was otherwise horrendous.

Miller certainly won’t be underutilized in Houston. Even if they pass the ball more often this season with Osweiler coming in, they still are a quick pace team that led the NFL in plays run last season, so there will be plenty of opportunity for Miller to get the ball. In a league where few backs surpass 300 carries in a season anymore, Miller could easily finish in the top-5 in touches if he can stay healthy. He hasn’t missed a game since his rookie year in 2012, but he’s still somewhat of a projection to a larger role, as he’s never had more than 254 touches in a season.

Miller’s only real competition for carries is Alfred Blue. A 2014 6th round pick, Blue has gotten plenty of action in his first 2 seasons in the league, with 352 carries, but he turned those into just 1226 yards and 4 touchdowns, a weak 3.48 YPC. He’s the reason why the Texans brought Miller in and he’ll be nothing more than a pure backup to Blue. He could even be pushed for his #2 job at some point this season by 4th round rookie Tyler Ervin, out of San Jose State. They’d likely split carries if Miller went down. It’s an obviously improved group of running backs.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

In addition to quarterback and running back, it’s obvious the Texans made the wide receiver position a priority this off-season, adding Notre Dame wide receiver Will Fuller in the 1st round of the draft and Ohio State wide receiver Braxton Miller in the 3rd round of the draft. Miller is much more of a project, converting from quarterback to wide receiver just last season, but Fuller has a great chance to play serious snaps as a rookie. He’ll compete with 2nd year player Jaelen Strong for the #2 wide receiver job this season. Fuller would seem to be the early favorite, but Strong wasn’t bad on 320 snaps as a rookie, as the 4th receiver behind departed mediocre veterans Nate Washington and Cecil Shorts, so don’t be surprised if he plays a big role.

DeAndre Hopkins remains locked in as the #1 receiver, though he’s unlikely to see the 192 targets (3rd in the NFL) that he saw last season, with more options to throw to in the passing game. Still, he’s finished in the top-12 among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus in back-to-back seasons, so he’s great player and figures to be a frequent target of Osweiler’s. With likely better quarterback play, more talent around him, and his best years possibly still ahead of him, going into just his age 24 season, the 2013 1st round pick could easily come close to last year’s numbers, when he caught 111 passes (3rd in the NFL) for 1521 yards (also 3rd in the NFL) and 11 touchdowns. He’s one of the best wide receivers in the whole game and the Texans’ best offensive player.

Things are not as good at tight end, where 2014 3rd round pick CJ Fiedorowicz remains as the starter. Fiedorowicz struggled mightily as a rookie, finishing 63th out of 67 eligible tight ends and, though he moved up to 29th in 2015 (above average), he still struggled mightily as a pass catcher, catching just 17 passes for 167 yards and a touchdown in 16 games. He’s a strong run blocker at 6-5 265, but little else. Ryan Griffin actually led all Texan tight ends in receiving last year, catching 20 passes for 251 yards and 2 touchdowns, but he was terrible all around, finishing 66th out of 67 eligible tight ends on 351 snaps. He’s graded out below average in 3 straight seasons, since being drafted in the 6th round in 2013. There’s definitely upside in this unit, but they could still struggle for consistency after DeAndre Hopkins.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

Brian Hoyer’s terrible performance in the playoff game was a huge part of the reason why this offense couldn’t move the ball, but the loss of left tackle Duane Brown to a torn quad was definitely felt as well, both in pass protection and on the ground. Brown went down for the season with a torn quad week 17, a huge loss, considering he finished the season 13th among offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus. He’s no one-year wonder, finishing in the top-24 among offensive tackles in each of the last 6 seasons, but he’s going into his age 31 season, coming off of a major injury, and is reportedly not a lock to be ready by week 1, so there’s some cause for concern. That being said, he figures to have a strong season again once he’s finally able to play.

Brown isn’t the only Texans’ offensive lineman dealing with a major injury, as rookie 2nd rounder pick Nick Martin will miss the entire season with an ankle injury. Following the loss of capable veteran Ben Jones in free agency, Martin was expected to start, but the Texans will now turn to 2nd year undrafted free agent Greg Mancz, who played just 1 offensive snap as a rookie. It’s a major position of concern after losing first Jones and then Martin. Mancz figures to be overwhelmed as a starter.

Meanwhile at right guard, free agent acquisition Jeff Allen, formerly of the Chiefs, replaces right guard Brandon Brooks, who also left as a free agent this off-season. Allen is coming off of a very strong season, finishing 16th among guards on Pro Football Focus, earning him a 4-year, 28 million dollar deal. The Texans might have overpaid, considering he graded out below average in each of his first 2 seasons in the league in 2012 and 2013, before missing all but 1 game in 2014 with an elbow injury. Even in 2015, he only played 429 snaps and made 8 starts, so he’s unproven and a risky signing, but the 2012 2nd round pick is not a bad starter.

The same cannot really be said of Xavier Su’a-Filo, a 2014 2nd round pick who struggled in his first season as a starter in 2015, finishing 61st out of 81 eligible guards. He could be better in his 2nd year in the league though. The Texans will obviously be hoping he improves, as they don’t really have another option. Oday Aboushi is their next best options, but he has graded out below average in all 3 seasons he’s been in the league, dating back to his rookie year in 2013, when he was a 5th round pick of the Jets.

Rounding out the offensive line is right tackle Derek Newton, who is coming off of his 2nd straight seasons grading out above average, after struggling mightily early in his career. Newton has never been a good pass protector, but he’s been dominant in the run game in each of the last 2 seasons. He finished as Pro Football Focus’ 32nd ranked offensive tackle in 2015, including 13th in pure run blocking grade. Obviously, pass protection is more important in today’s NFL, but Newton is not a bad starter. It’s not a bad offensive line overall, but there are definitely some problems, especially with injuries hitting them hard already.

Grade: C+

Defensive Line

It’s not just the offensive line where the Texans have already been hit hard by injury, as stud defensive end JJ Watt is questionable for week 1 after undergoing back surgery in July. As I mentioned earlier, the Texans’ defense has been what’s carried this team over the past couple of seasons. And what’s carried this defense has been JJ Watt, 3-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year. Last year was arguably the worst season Watt has had since his rookie year in 2011, as he finished 2nd among interior defenders on Pro Football Focus behind Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald. That’s obviously an incredible season, as he still finished #1 among 3-4 defensive ends for the 4th straight season, but he didn’t have the highest overall defensive grade on Pro Football Focus for the 4th straight season, as both Donald and middle linebacker Luke Kuechly both finished higher.

I would have voted for Donald over Watt for Defensive Player of the Year, but Watt should have won it in 2013, when he lost to Kuechly, so it all evens out. Any way you look at it, he’s one of the top few players in the entire NFL. The only reason he wasn’t quite as dominant as 2012-2014 is because he was hampered by injuries down the stretch, including a broken hand. Watt still hasn’t missed a game with injury in 5 years in the league, though his status is now in question for week 1, which puts a bit of damper on his 2016 expectations. Needless to say, any time he misses with injury would hurt this team’s playoff chances.

Things are not nearly as good on the rest of the defensive line. That might sound weird to say, considering likely future hall-of-famer Vince Wilfork starts at nose tackle, but he’s purely a two-down player at this stage in his career. WIlfork played just 562 regular season snaps last season and, while he excelled against the run, finishing 25th among interior defenders in that category, he got absolutely no pass rush, finishing 106th out of 123 eligible interior defenders in that category. Going into his age 35 season, the end is near for Big Vince. The Texans drafted his likely successor in the 5th round, taking Georgia Tech nose tackle DJ Reader, who measured in at 6-3 327 at the combine. Wilfork should still play the run well in a limited role this season, but it’s not out of the question that Reader could push him for snaps down the stretch.

The other defensive end spot is particularly problematic, as that’s an every down position without anything close to a clear starter. Departed free agent Jared Crick wasn’t good in that spot last season, but no one currently on the roster looks like an upgrade. 2014 6th round pick Jeoffrey Pagan, 2015 6th round pick Christian Covington, and 2014 undrafted free agent Brandon Dunn will compete for snaps at the position. None have any noteworthy experience. Pagan struggled on 191 snaps as a rookie in 2014 and played just 44 snaps last season. Covington played just 167 snaps as a rookie last season. Dunn played a career high 142 snaps last season. It’s a major position of weakness. This defensive line badly needs a healthy JJ Watt.

Grade: B

Linebackers

It wasn’t just the JJ Watt show last season on defense though, as a pair of former first round picks both took a big leap forward last season at outside linebacker. 2014 #1 overall pick Jadeveon Clowney and 2012 1st round pick Whitney Mercilus remain as starters. Clowney was the higher pick, but Mercilus had the better 2015 season, coming in 15th among edge defenders, while Clowney was 26th. This came after Mercilus finished below average in each of his first 3 years in the league from 2012-2014. He could keep up this high level of play and he has former 1st round pick talent, but he remains a one-year wonder.

Clowney’s biggest issue through 2 years in the league has been injuries, as back and knee problems have limited him to just 17 games in 2 seasons in the league. 13 of those games came last year though and his performance on the field was solid as well. Oozing with talent and still only going into his age 23 season, Clowney could have a big-time breakout year this year if he can stay healthy. Mercilus might have had the better 2015, but Clowney has much higher upside. Both are valuable starters though. They also have a talented reserve in John Simon, who finished last season above average on 639 snaps, after flashing on 239 snaps in 2014. A 2013 4th round pick of the Ravens, Simon has proven the Ravens wrong for giving on him so quickly. He’s an excellent insurance policy that should see about 30 snaps per game regardless.

Inside, the Texans have a promising young linebacker and a declining veteran linebacker. Brian Cushing has been with the Texans since they drafted him in the 1st round in 2009 and had some fantastic seasons early in his career. However, he missed 20 games between 2012-2013 with lower body injuries and has graded out below average in each of the past 2 seasons, including 70th out of 97 eligible last season. Going into his age 29 season, Cushing’s best days are likely behind him.

Fellow starter Benardrick McKinney’s best days appear him ahead of him though, after the 2015 2nd round pick flashed on 411 snaps as a rookie. The 6-4 246 pounder is a force against the run and showed enough in coverage to warrant a larger role in 2016, after playing only in base packages in 2015. Safety Eddie Pleasant played around the line of scrimmage as essentially a 2nd linebacker in sub packages next to Brian Cushing, while McKinney sat on the bench. McKinney is expected to get a shot to play all three downs this season, though it’s not out of the question that Pleasant keeps his sub package job. Along with Clowney, Mercilus, and Simon, McKinney gives the Texans 4 promising young linebackers.

Grade: B+

Secondary

Even if Pleasant doesn’t keep his sub package role, he could still play a significant role on a team whose starting safety jobs are both up for grabs. Quintin Demps and Andre Hal made 13 and 11 starts respectively at safety last year, but both graded out below average. Demps is going into his age 31 season and has never been very good. Hal, meanwhile, is still young, but he wasn’t highly drafted, falling to the 7th round in 2014. Pleasant could push both of them for their jobs, though Demps is probably most vulnerable. Pleasant isn’t a great option either, as the 2012 7th round pick has just 1 career start and struggled in limited action last season. His value comes way more from his versatility and his ability to play both safety and linebacker at 5-11 210, rather than from him being a particularly good player. Whoever starts at safety, it should be a position of weakness.

Cornerback, on the other hand, is a much stronger position. Johnathan Joseph is coming off of arguably the best season of his career, finishing 9th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. In 5 years in Houston, he’s missed just 4 games with injury and has graded out above average in all 5 seasons, with his highest ranked season coming last season. He’s going into his age 32 season so his age is starting to become a concern, but he seems to still be going strong. He’s made the Texans look smart for locking him up on a 3-year, 22 million dollar extension last off-season.

It was a bit of a surprise when the Texans did that, as it looked like Joseph was going into his final year in Houston in 2015 when the Texans used the 16th overall pick on Wake Forest cornerback Kevin Johnson. Between him and fellow former first round pick Kareem Jackson (20th overall in 2010), who they had just re-signed for 34 million over 4 years, it looked like the Texans were pretty set at cornerback for the foreseeable future. Instead, Joseph remains as a starter and Johnson will spent 2016 as the 3rd cornerback again. He graded out slightly below average as a rookie, but could be noticeably better in his 2nd year in the league.

Jackson also graded out below average last season and that’s a little bit more concerning, given how much money they gave him last off-season and given that he has a history of inconsistency. Jackson finished 12th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus in 2012 and 11th in 2014, which is what earned him that contract, but he’s graded out below average in each of his other 4 seasons in the league. He’s also missed 9 games with injury in the last 3 seasons combined. There’s bounce back back potential here if he can stay healthy, but there are definitely no guarantees with him. It’s overall a solid secondary though.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Texans did a good job of identifying their biggest needs and addressing them this season, using high picks on wide receivers and spending big money to bring in Brock Osweiler and Lamar Miller in free agency. However, Osweiler is still an unproven quarterback at best and it’s possible their young wide receivers take a year or so to become impact players in the NFL. Lamar Miller was a great signing, but the Texans are banged up going into the season and have one of the league’s oldest rosters overall. Even in a weak AFC South, it’s going to be tough for them to repeat. The division is not as bad as it was last season.

Prediction: 7-9 3rd in AFC South

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Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans: 2015 AFC Wild Card Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) at Houston Texans (9-7)

The Chiefs are favored by 3.5 points here in Houston. It’s not hard to understand why that’s the case. The Texans are seen as a team that’s only in the playoffs by default, after winning the weak NFC South; they’ve also already lost to the Chiefs at home this season, 27-20 back in week 1.The Chiefs, meanwhile, are seen as a legitimate team, coming into the playoffs with an 11-5 record and a 10 game winning streak. Despite the fact that the Chiefs are favored by more than a field goal on the road, when close to 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less, the public is still all over Kansas City.

They seem to be falling into the odds makers’ trap, as they often do. I think the Texans are actually the better team here. Like the Chiefs, they survived a rough start and got better as the season went on, starting 2-5 and winning 7 of their next 9 games. Like the Chiefs, they’ve gotten better as the season has gone on, largely because quarterback Brian Hoyer has stabilized the quarterback position, and they’ve quietly become a legitimately tough team to face in the playoffs. A strong defense has led them to a 7th place rank in rate of moving the chains differential and they’re a better offense with Brian Hoyer, as they’ve moved the chains at a 70.11% rate in the 11 games Hoyer has led them in pass attempts, as opposed to 68.57% in their other 5 games. The Chiefs, meanwhile, rank 8th in rate of moving the chains differential, which is impressive, but this line is way off.

It’s true that the Chiefs did win 27-20 in Houston earlier this year, but I think the public has gotten too caught up in that. Teams are 29-14 ATS since 1989 in the playoffs in a same season, same site, non-divisional rematch against a team that beat them previously. The Chiefs’ 10 game winning streak is another thing the public seems to have gotten too caught up in, as teams are 10-21 ATS in the playoffs on a 7+ game winning streak, including 6-17 ATS as favorites. The Chiefs are overrated and I’ll gladly take the points. The Texans have some key injuries to left tackle Duane Brown and outside linebacker Jadeveon Clowney, while the Chiefs get outside linebacker Justin Houston back from a 5 game absence, but the Chiefs are missing their other starting outside linebacker Tamba Hali and center Mitch Morse is expected to join him. There’s still enough here to make Houston my top pick this week.

Houston Texans 17 Kansas City Chiefs 13 Upset Pick +150

Pick against the spread: Houston +3.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 17 NFL Picks, Jaguars, NFL Picks, Texans, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-10) at Houston Texans (8-7)

I ordinarily never do this, but I need to lock this one in now. If the Bengals beat the Broncos tonight, the Texans clinch the AFC South. It might sound weird, but a Cincinnati victory over the Broncos clinches the tiebreaker for the Texans because it would come down to strength of victory, which would essentially give the Texans a two game lead with one game left to go, rather than a one game lead. If that happens, the Texans will be locked into the #4 seed and this game will be meaningless for them. The Texans could rest their starters if that happens, particularly key players dealing with injuries like quarterback Brian Hoyer (ankle/concussion), outside Jadeveon Clowney (foot), and defensive end JJ Watt (hand). That would drop this line from 6 in a hurry. I’m actually shocked a line is posted for this one anywhere.

The Bengals are underdogs in Denver and I don’t expect them to win, but they’re only 4 point underdogs and could certainly pull off the upset. Besides, I’m taking the Jaguars either way, so I want to get this line as high as possible. The Jaguars are in a pair of good spots. For one, divisional road underdogs are 57-31 ATS in a same season regular season rematch against a team they previously lost to as divisional home favorites, since 2002. Revenge is far from uncommon in divisional matchups similar to this one and the Texans beat the Jaguars as underdogs in Jacksonville earlier this year.

On top of that, the Jaguars are in their 2nd of two road games, coming off a loss in New Orleans. Teams are 130-94 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 106-64 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 225-227 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.51 points per game, as opposed to 321-438 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.75 points per game. I’d put money on Jacksonville now.

Houston Texans 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 19

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +6

Confidence: High

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Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans: 2015 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (7-7) at Tennessee Titans (3-11)

The line has finally been released for this one. I was hoping that if Brian Hoyer were ruled out for the 2nd straight week with a concussion that the Texans would be underdogs, as that would have opened up two very powerful trends. Divisional home favorites are 22-58 ATS since 2002 before being divisional road underdogs, which the Titans will be in Indianapolis next week, and favorites are just 103-169 ATS since 2008 before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites, which the Texans will be at home for the Jaguars next week.

Brandon Weeden, who was claimed off of waivers mid-season from the Cowboys, will start for the Texans this week, as Hoyer has reportedly been ruled out and regular backup TJ Yates tore his ACL in his first start of the season last week. However, not only are the Texans not underdogs, they’re actually favored by 4 points here on the road. Not only are those trends no longer in play, but now the Texans have to cover a line that’s more significant than people realize, as about 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer.

Fortunately for the Texans, they’re not the only one starting a backup quarterback, as talented Titans rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota will miss the final 2 games of the season with a knee sprain. Backup Zach Mettenberger will get the start and the Titans have moved the chains at a mere 59.26% rate in the 3 games where he’s been the team’s leader in pass attempts this season, including a week 8 start in Houston where the Titans moved the chains at a mere 53.57% rate in a 20-6 loss. In their other 11 games, they’ve moved the chains at a 72.78%.

Weeden is actually the 4th quarterback to start for the Texans this season, but that doesn’t matter much, as there isn’t really a notable difference between Weeden, Yates, and Ryan Mallett in terms of their ability to lead this offense. Brian Hoyer has been their best quarterback this year, as they’ve moved the chains at a 69.78% rate in the 10 games he’s led the team in pass attempts, as opposed to 68.06% in their other 4 games. The Texans’ defense, which ranks 8th in rate of moving the chains allowed, is easily the best unit in this game, as the Texans rank 11th in rate of moving the chains differential despite a stagnant offense, while the Titans rank 25th, despite an offense that’s been decent when Mariota’s been healthy. Still, it’s hard to be confident in the Texans to cover as 4 point road favorites with a backup quarterback. In fact, I’m going the other way for a no confidence pick, as this could easily be a field goal win for Houston.

Houston Texans 13 Tennessee Titans 10

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +4

Confidence: None

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Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (6-7) at Indianapolis Colts (6-7)

The Colts lost 51-16 in Jacksonville last week, but the good news is that teams are 51-27 ATS since 2002 off of a loss of 35+ points. It’s counter-intuitive, but it makes sense, as teams tend to be embarrassed, overlooked, and undervalued in that spot. The Colts lost by 35 the week prior as well, in Pittsburgh, and that didn’t help them last week, but that’s just one data point against a trend that’s historically been successful and that makes logical sense. Besides, teams that have lost back-to-back games by at least 21 points are 44-27 ATS over that same time period, for the same reasons.

The Colts also historically cover at home, against divisional opponents, and against sub-.500 opponents, in the Chuck Pagano era, dating back to 2012. They are 21-10 ATS at home, 18-7 ATS against sub-.500 opponents (week 4 or later), and 16-6 ATS against divisional opponents over that time period. Combining all three, they are 5-2 ATS at home, against sub-.500 divisional opponents in week 4 or later, since 2012. The Texans fit all three criteria.

The Texans are the better team, ranking 11th in rate of moving the chains differential, as opposed to 23rd for the Colts, but much of the league is bunched up in the middle and the Texans are actually closer to 23rd than 6th, so the difference isn’t as big as it seems. Besides, the Texans are missing starting quarterback Brian Hoyer, while stud defensive lineman JJ Watt is playing through a broken hand, which seemed to limit him against New England last week. As long as this line stays under 3, I’m taking the Colts. I wouldn’t put money on it though, because the Texans are in a good spot too. Divisional road underdogs are 55-31 ATS in a same season regular season rematch against a team they previously lost to as divisional home favorites, since 2002. Revenge is far from uncommon in divisional matchups similar to this one and the Colts beat the Texans in Houston earlier this year.

Indianapolis Colts 16 Houston Texans 13

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -1

Confidence: Low

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New England Patriots at Houston Texans: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 14 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Patriots, Texans, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (10-2) at Houston Texans (6-6)

The Patriots are 33-17 ATS off of a loss when Tom Brady starts and they haven’t lost 3 straight since 2003. The problem is that the public is all over New England. They seem to rightfully see New England’s loss last week at home against the Eagles for the fluke that it was, a game in which the Patriots lost by a touchdown despite allowing 3 return touchdowns and going 1 of 3 on onside kick attempts. The Patriots moved the chains at a 73.81% rate, as opposed to 68.00% for the Eagles, and if a few things that almost never happen didn’t happen, the Patriots would have likely won by double digits. With the Patriots getting healthier this week, the public can’t see the Patriots not winning by more than 5 and covering this 4.5 point spread.

However, close to 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or less so this could be a close game much more easily than the public seems to think. The standard adjustment for homefield advantage is about 2.5-3 points, so this line suggests that the Patriots would be favored by about 10 or 10.5 over the Texans in New England. Considering the Eagles were just +9 last week, that doesn’t make much sense. I like to fade the public whenever it makes sense, as they always lose money in the long run, and it makes sense here.

New England is healthier, with linebacker Jamie Collins going into his 2nd game back from an illness, defensive tackle Dominique Easley returning, and tight end Rob Gronkowski likely to suit up following a one game absence, after practicing with the team Thursday and Friday and making the trip on Saturday. But they’re far from full strength. Linebacker Dont’a Hightower did not travel with the team, so he’ll miss his 2nd straight game, wide receiver Julian Edelman and running back Dion Lewis are obviously still out, and, while Gronkowski is expected to play, he could be used in a limited fashion just two weeks after he hyperextended and bruised his knee. Guard Josh Kline is also out.

The Texans are much closer to 100%. They don’t have anyone listed as anything less than probable this week and their only key player on injured reserve is running back Arian Foster, who he barely played this season, totaling just 390 yards from scrimmage on 74 touches. Defensive end JJ Watt broke his hand in practice this week, but he’s expected to play and, as Jason Pierre-Paul has shown, hands aren’t the most important thing for defensive linemen. The Texans rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential and, with outside linebacker Jadeveon Clowney and cornerback Kareem Jackson now healthy, they’re as talented a team as that suggests in a league that seems to be less talented across the board this season. I don’t love going against New England this week, but this is just too many points.

New England Patriots 23 Houston Texans 20

Pick against the spread: Houston +4.5

Confidence: Low

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Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 13 NFL Picks, Bills, NFL Picks, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (6-5) at Buffalo Bills (5-6)

The Texans started the season 1-4, but have won 5 of their last 6 games. This is a legitimate team in a generally weak NFL this season, as they rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential. Brian Hoyer isn’t the best quarterback in the world or anything, but his job is made easy by a defense that ranks 7th in rate of moving the chains allowed. They’ve beaten the Jets and Bengals recently with backup quarterback TJ Yates playing, because of how good their defense has been recently.

They’re also arguably the healthiest team in the NFL, as they don’t have a single player listed as anything lower than probable. Arian Foster is their only key player on injured reserve and he barely played this season, totaling just 390 yards from scrimmage on 74 touches. Jadeveon Clowney being healthy and showing his #1 overall pick talent in recent weeks has been huge for them and they got cornerback Kareem Jackson back from a 4 game absence last week. They’re coming off probably their best defensive performance of the season last week, allowing a Saints offense that ranks 5th in rate of moving the chains to move the chains at a mere 58.33% rate. There’s a very good chance they carry that over into this week, against a much weaker offense.

The Bills, meanwhile, rank 20th in rate of moving the chains differential and have plenty of injuries. Kyle Williams and Percy Harvin are out for the season and have been since week 5 and week 6 respectively. Defensive end Mario Williams returns from a 1 game absence, but he hasn’t played well this season and the Bills are also missing right guard John Miller, right tackle Seantrel Henderson, running back Karlos Williams, and outside linebacker Nigel Bradham. Despite that, they’re favored by 3.5. Given that close to 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less, I’m confident enough in the Texans to put money on them.

Houston Texans 13 Buffalo Bills 10 Upset Pick +150

Pick against the spread: Houston +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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New Orleans Saints at Houston Texans: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 12 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Saints, Texans, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (4-6) at Houston Texans (5-5)

The Texans won last week, 24-17 at home against the Jets, to improve their record to 5-5. After a 1-4 start, the Texans are right in the thick of the playoff race in the AFC. Last week’s win came as home underdogs and teams are 42-71 ATS since 2012 off of a win as home underdogs, including 7-20 ATS at home. However, the Texans have moved up to 10th in rate of moving the chains differential and they are a better team than the Saints, who rank 17th. That’s not what this line suggests, as the Texans are just 3 point favorites at home. The Texans also get cornerback Kareem Jackson back from injury, after a 4 game absence.

The Saints also have a tough upcoming game, as they host the Carolina Panthers, a game in which they’re expected to be 4 point home underdogs, according to the early line. That number could jump even higher after the Panthers’ huge win over the Cowboys in Dallas on Thanksgiving, which improved them to 11-0. Teams are 77-120 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point home underdogs, 44-81 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs, and 23-53 ATS before being 6+ point home underdogs, as teams tend to get caught looking ahead before such a big home game. I’m not confident in them, but I’m taking the Texans.

Houston Texans 24 New Orleans Saints 20

Pick against the spread: Houston -3

Confidence: Low

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