Last week: 22 (-6)
Record: 2-8
Week 11 Studs
LT Duane Brown
LG Wade Smith
LE JJ Watt
Week 11 Duds
QB Matt Schaub
RG Brandon Brooks
ROLB Whitney Mercilus
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Texans
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9) at Houston Texans (2-8)
One of the most powerful trends in betting is known as the six and six trend, meaning teams who finish with 6 wins or fewer are 25-69 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2002. There are two issues with this trend. One, it’s very rare (it only happened 7 times all last season, going 2-5 ATS). Two, it’s even rarer that a situation will come up in which you can confidently use the trend. The Eagles were 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland last year week 1 (they didn’t cover), but at the time there was no way to know that the Eagles would finish 6-10 or worse.
The Texans, however, sit at 2-8 and would need to go 5-1 or better in order to avoid finishing 6-10 or worse. I think we can safely put them in the six and six trend and they are favored by 10 points here. However, they might actually deserve to be. They’re much better than their record on paper. They’ve just been killed by turnovers (-11) and return touchdowns (-6 touchdowns) and by a 2-5 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. They are moving the chains at a 73% rate, as opposed to 70% for their opponents, which ranks 10th in the NFL.
They aren’t the 10th best team in the NFL. You can’t blindly follow that, but it’s worth noting. They do rank 30th in the NFL in DVOA, according to Football Outsiders, but I think they’re definitely better than that. They’re probably somewhere in between, but they’re better than their record. The Jaguars, meanwhile, have lost every game by double figures or more and rank dead last in DVOA by a large distance, so I’m not that confident in them. They should be the right side though. The Texans could also be caught looking forward to New England next week, as divisional home favorites are 21-36 ATS before being non-divisional home dogs since 1989.
Houston Texans 30 Jacksonville Jaguars 24
Pick against spread: Jacksonville +10
Confidence: Low
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Houston Texans: 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#22)
Last week: 21 (-1)
Record: 2-7
Despite their 2-7 record, the Texans actually rank 12th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents. They probably aren’t as good as that (Football Outsiders has them 29th in DVOA), but they’ve just been killed by turnovers (-13) and return touchdowns (-7 touchdowns). They won’t make the playoffs are anything, but they’ll pull some “upsets” and be underrated down the stretch.
Week 10 Studs
LE JJ Watt
MLB Daryl Sharpton
Week 10 Duds
LG Wade Smith
RG Brandon Brooks
ROLB Whitney Mercilus
CB Brice McCain
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Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick
Oakland Raiders (3-6) at Houston Texans (2-7)
One of the most powerful trends in betting is known as the six and six trend, meaning teams who finish with 6 wins or fewer are 25-69 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2002. There are two issues with this trend. One, it’s very rare (it only happened 7 times all last season, going 2-5 ATS). Two, it’s even rarer that a situation will come up in which you can confidently use the trend. The Eagles were 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland last year week 1 (they didn’t cover), but at the time there was no way to know that the Eagles would finish 6-10 or worse.
The Texans, however, sit at 2-7 and would need to go 5-2 or better in order to avoid finishing 6-10 or worse. I think we can safely put them in the six and six trend and they are favored by 7.5 points here. The Raiders covered in New York as 6 point underdogs last week, when the Giants were likely in the six and six situation. I think they have a good chance of doing the same here this week in Houston as 7.5 point underdogs. The Raiders are also in a good spot as road dogs off of a road loss. Teams are 97-57 ATS in this spot since 2008 and teams cover at about a 65% rate historically in this spot, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample.
The only reason this isn’t a bigger play is because I think the Texans are better than their record. They’ve just been killed by turnovers (-13) and return touchdowns (-7 touchdowns). They actually rank 12th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents, while the Raiders rank 28th, thanks largely to a slumping Terrelle Pryor. According to that statistic, this line should be around 8.5. I don’t think that’s accurate though. You can’t blindly follow that. The Texans aren’t the 12th best team in the NFL. Football Outsiders has them 29th in DVOA. I don’t think they’re that bad, but they don’t deserve to be favored by 7.5 points over anyone.
Houston Texans 20 Oakland Raiders 17
Pick against spread: Oakland +7.5
Confidence: Medium
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Houston Texans: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#21)
Last week: 17 (-4)
Record: 2-6
The Texans have lost each of the past two games, but the good news is that they might have found their quarterback of the future. Case Keenum has completed 35 of 59 for 621 yards and 4 touchdowns in 2 games. The Texans have been better than their record all along. They are moving the chains at a 76% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents. They’ve just been killed by turnovers (-11), inability to recover fumbles (41.2%), and return touchdowns (-6 touchdowns). Now with Keenum under center, things seem to be better. Again, they haven’t won, but losing by a combined 4 points to the Chiefs and Colts is almost like beating anyone else. The Texans have had a brutal schedule to this point, as 7 of their 8 opponents are currently 4-4 or better. Between the 49ers, Seahawks, Colts, and Chiefs, they’ve faced 4 of the top-10 teams in my Power Rankings. Their schedule gets easier from here on out, starting with the Cardinals this week.
Week 10 Studs
QB Case Keenum
WR Andre Johnson
LT Duane Brown
C Chris Myers
LE JJ Watt
RE Antonio Smith
Week 10 Duds
LG Wade Smith
LOLB Brooks Reed
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Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick
Houston Texans (2-6) at Arizona Cardinals (4-4)
The Texans have lost each of the past two games, but the good news is that they might have found their quarterback of the future. Case Keenum has completed 35 of 59 for 621 yards and 4 touchdowns in 2 games. The Texans have been better than their record all along. They are moving the chains at a 76% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents. They’ve just been killed by turnovers (-11), inability to recover fumbles (41.2%), and return touchdowns (-6 touchdowns). Now with Keenum under center, things seem to be better. Again, they haven’t won, but losing by a combined 4 points to the Chiefs and Colts is almost like beating anyone else.
The Texans have had a brutal schedule to this point, as 7 of their 8 opponents are currently 4-4 or better. Between the 49ers, Seahawks, Colts, and Chiefs, they’ve faced 4 of the top-10 teams in my Power Rankings. Their schedule gets easier from here on out, starting with the Cardinals here this week. The Cardinals are moving the chains at a 71% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents. If you use rate of moving the chains differential to determine the line, the Texans should actually be favored by a little bit, before you even get into their schedule.
Two uncertainties are why this isn’t a bigger play. One is that Gary Kubiak is out. They might rally together and win one for Kubiak before he returns next week, but they could also look as lost as they did last week without him. Interim Head Coach Wade Phillips has struggled as a Head Coach in the past. On top of that, being the Head Coach could distract him from putting everything into calling plays for the defense. Meanwhile, offensive coordinator Rick Dennison is now the primary offensive play caller.
The second reason is just that, going into his 3rd career start, the Cardinals could have enough tape on Keenum to figure out how to play him and expose why he went undrafted. The Colts did this to a large extent in the 2nd half last week. Keenum loves to throw it deep, but if you blitz him, like the Colts did often in the 2nd half, he doesn’t seem to be accurate enough to take advantage and he might even have trouble reading the blitz. Still, I like the Texans this week.
Houston Texans 20 Arizona Cardinals 17 Upset Pick +125
Pick against spread: Houston +2.5
Confidence: Low
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Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick
Indianapolis Colts (5-2) at Houston Texans (2-5)
You could definitely still argue the Texans are underrated and are better than their record. They are moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents. That differential is 12th in the NFL. They have been killed by turnovers (-11), an inability to recover fumbles (37.5%), and a ridiculous amount of return touchdowns allowed (7 allowed, to 1 returned for themselves). Of course, most of that was done with Matt Schaub. Case Keenum is now their quarterback. He played well in his debut in Kansas City, completing 15 of 25 for 271 yards and a touchdown, but that was his first action of his career, so I can’t really say that I’m 100% sold on the former undrafted free agent.
However, there’s also a solid chance that Keenum can keep it up. I believe he deserves this 2nd start, even though I don’t think Schaub’s performance this season was representative of the type of quarterback he is. If that’s the case, the Colts, as good of a team as they are, don’t really deserve to be road favorites here. That’s relevant because road favorites dominate off of a bye, going 45-18 ATS and 22-4 ATS in divisional games. The Texans are also coming off of a bye as well though and the public is all over Indianapolis. I’m not confident in either side, but if I had to, I’d fade the heavy public lean on Indianapolis and go with the possibly underrated Texans.
Houston Texans 24 Indianapolis Colts 23 Upset Pick +115
Pick against spread: Houston +2
Confidence: None
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Houston Texans: 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#17)
Last week: 16 (-1)
Record: 2-5
On bye.
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Houston Texans: 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#16)
Last week: 16 (+0)
Record: 2-5
I was obviously skeptical about Case Keenum, an undrafted 2nd year player who had never played a snap. However, he did some nice things in the 1 point loss in Kansas City, completing 15 of 25 for 271 yards and a touchdown against arguably the best defense in the NFL. He did some bad things as well, particularly his struggles reading the blitz, but that could improve with experience. I’ve defended Matt Schaub for a while and I don’t believe he’s as bad as he looked to start the season, but Keenum has done enough to deserve another look after the bye. I’m skeptical he’s the long-term answer, but at 2-5, it’s worth playing him until he fails.
Week 7 Studs
LE JJ Watt
MLB Brian Cushing
CB Kareem Jackson
Week 7 Duds
QB Case Keenum
RT Derek Newton
C Chris Myers
ROLB Whitney Mercilus
CB Brice McCain
FS Ed Reed
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Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs: 2013 Week 7 NFL Pick
Houston Texans (2-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-0)
If Matt Schaub were starting in this one, Houston would have been my Pick of the Week. Seriously. I think they’re significantly better than their record right now. They are just getting killed in turnovers and points off of turnovers, two things that tend to be inconsistent on a week to week basis. Since 1989, 35 teams have lost despite winning the first down battle by 10 and the yardage battle by 200. 2 of those teams are the 2013 Houston Texans and the Texans also did so a 3rd time against Tennessee. One of those times was last week against the Rams.
The Texans have turned the ball over 15 times this year. 6 of those were returned for touchdown, an absurd 40% rate that would not have continued going forward. Between those 6 returns and a punt return touchdown they allowed, they are -6 in return touchdowns, -42 in points off of returns. Even if they were to continue their AFC worst -12 turnover margin, an average of -2 per game, they would not continue to get killed by return as much.
However, it was unlikely they’d continue that turnover margin. If they were to continue an average of -2 per game, they’d finish the season at -32, which would be a modern day record. I don’t think this team is all-time bad in turnovers, especially a year after they were +12 in turnover margin. And that highlights another point: that turnover margin is very random and inconsistent on a year to year and week to week basis. On average, teams that have a -4 turnover margin in a given game have an average turnover margin of +0.0 the following week and the same is true for teams that have a +4 turnover margin in a given game.
That turnover margin was largely the result of an unsustainably low rate of recovering fumbles and an uncharacteristically high interception rate by Matt Schaub. Thus far, the Texans are recovering just 30.8% of fumbles, which won’t continue. Matt Schaub, meanwhile, was throwing an interception on 3.9% of his attempts, as opposed to 2.6%, which is his career rate. When he is under center going forward, that probably won’t continue.
The Texans are actually moving the chains pretty well, a 76% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents. That’s a differential that’s 9th best in the NFL, while Kansas City sits at 4th. However, Houston has faced a much tougher schedule than Kansas City thus far as all 6 of their opponents this season are currently .500 or better. Kansas City’s opponents, meanwhile, are 11-25 combined. Houston with Matt Schaub is arguably the 2nd best team they’ve faced thus far this season behind Dallas, who only lost by 1 in Kansas City.
The Texans are also in a good spot off of back-to-back losses by 21+ or more. Teams are 37-20 ATS in this spot since 2002. Teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in that situation. The Texans have yet to cover a spread thus far this season, but that’s because they’ve been overrated thus far. That’s obviously no longer the case. Everyone covers a spread eventually, at least 3 or 4 times per year, even really bad teams, which is not what I think Houston is.
The Chiefs, meanwhile, have been helped by an unsustainably high +12 turnover margin, largely as the result of a 64.7% fumble recovery rate. If Schaub were under center, I legitimately thought they had a good chance to pull the upset and, at the very least, cover. However, I don’t really feel like putting a ton of confidence in an undrafted rookie who has never attempted an NFL pass on the road against arguably the best defense in the NFL, which is allowing a 62% rate of moving the chains, albeit against a weak schedule.
We could see the rest of the team, particularly their strong defense, step up and shut down a Kansas City offense that is moving the chains at a mere 69% rate, despite a weak schedule. That could definitely keep this came close and the fact that the line is so low makes me think that it’s a trap line, especially with the public all over Kansas City. If this line increases to a touchdown or more, I’ll increase this to medium confidence, but don’t put anything on this line yet. There’s a chance it increases in the wake of the Keenum announcement, but it’s been a few hours and nothing has really changed, so we’ll see.
Update: The line is still now at 7. I’m going to raise this to medium confidence.
Kansas City Chiefs 16 Houston Texans 13
Pick against spread: Houston +7
Confidence: Medium
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