Texans

New England Patriots at Houston Texans: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 13 NFL Picks, Patriots, Texans, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (8-3) at Houston Texans (2-9)

The Raiders beat the Texans by 5 in Houston. The Jaguars beat the Texans by 7 in Houston. Surely the Patriots can beat them by 9 or more in Houston right? Well, that seems to be what the public is thinking as almost all of the action is on New England, but, as is often the case, it’s not that simple. There’s a reason why the odds makers always win in the long run.

I compare this game to last week’s Atlanta/New Orleans game, in which the Falcons kept it within 4 as 9 point home underdogs to the Saints, with all of the public action going on New Orleans because, “how could they not cover right?” Atlanta, like Houston, was a once proud team that had seemed to have quit on the season, not being used to that kind of losing and, as a result, they had lost 4 straight by a combined 74 coming in. However, they were able to get up for one last shot at upsetting a huge rival and played pretty well. I think Houston could do the same thing. This could easily be their Super Bowl, much like New Orleans was Atlanta’s Super Bowl last week. Don’t think the Texans have forgotten how the Patriots derailed their season last year.

The Texans are better than their record. They’ve just been killed by turnovers (-12) and return touchdowns (-6 touchdowns) and by a 2-6 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. They’ve only had 3 losses by more than a touchdown so I wouldn’t be so sure the Patriots come in and roll them over, especially since the Patriots have just 3 wins by a touchdown or more and have yet to cover a line bigger than a touchdown this season. Also, teams are 6-18 ATS as 7.5+ point road favorites over the past 3 seasons. It’s very hard to cover this type of spread.

Football Outsiders, for some reason, doesn’t think the Texans are better than their record, as they come in at 30th in terms of DVOA, but I disagree with that. They are moving the chains at a 72% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents, a differential that is 15th in the NFL. I don’t think they are the 15th best team in the NFL, but I think they’re better than 30th. They’re still solid in both trenches and we’re definitely getting some line value with them.

They’re also in a very good spot here. Teams who are non-divisional home underdogs are 40-11 ATS before being divisional road favorites, which they will be in Jacksonville next week. Teams in that dynamic tend to be completely focused and I think the Texans will be here. Also, teams are 99-56 ATS as underdogs off of 7+ straight losses. The public tends to want to stay away from teams on a long losing streak, and understandably so. That gives us value with the team on the long losing streak. The Patriots, meanwhile, could come out a little bit flat after last week’s huge win. I think this game is going to be a lot closer than people think and I’m pretty confident in Houston +9.

New England Patriots 24 Houston Texans 20

Pick against spread: Houston +9

Confidence: High

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Texans, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9) at Houston Texans (2-8)

One of the most powerful trends in betting is known as the six and six trend, meaning teams who finish with 6 wins or fewer are 25-69 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2002. There are two issues with this trend. One, it’s very rare (it only happened 7 times all last season, going 2-5 ATS). Two, it’s even rarer that a situation will come up in which you can confidently use the trend. The Eagles were 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland last year week 1 (they didn’t cover), but at the time there was no way to know that the Eagles would finish 6-10 or worse.

The Texans, however, sit at 2-8 and would need to go 5-1 or better in order to avoid finishing 6-10 or worse. I think we can safely put them in the six and six trend and they are favored by 10 points here. However, they might actually deserve to be. They’re much better than their record on paper. They’ve just been killed by turnovers (-11) and return touchdowns (-6 touchdowns) and by a 2-5 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. They are moving the chains at a 73% rate, as opposed to 70% for their opponents, which ranks 10th in the NFL.

They aren’t the 10th best team in the NFL. You can’t blindly follow that, but it’s worth noting. They do rank 30th in the NFL in DVOA, according to Football Outsiders, but I think they’re definitely better than that. They’re probably somewhere in between, but they’re better than their record. The Jaguars, meanwhile, have lost every game by double figures or more and rank dead last in DVOA by a large distance, so I’m not that confident in them. They should be the right side though. The Texans could also be caught looking forward to New England next week, as divisional home favorites are 21-36 ATS before being non-divisional home dogs since 1989.

Houston Texans 30 Jacksonville Jaguars 24

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +10

Confidence: Low

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Houston Texans: 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#22)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Texans, Uncategorized

Last week: 21 (-1)

Record: 2-7

Despite their 2-7 record, the Texans actually rank 12th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents. They probably aren’t as good as that (Football Outsiders has them 29th in DVOA), but they’ve just been killed by turnovers (-13) and return touchdowns (-7 touchdowns). They won’t make the playoffs are anything, but they’ll pull some “upsets” and be underrated down the stretch.

Week 10 Studs

LE JJ Watt

MLB Daryl Sharpton

Week 10 Duds

LG Wade Smith

RG Brandon Brooks

ROLB Whitney Mercilus

CB Brice McCain

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Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 11 NFL Picks, Raiders, Texans, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (3-6) at Houston Texans (2-7)

One of the most powerful trends in betting is known as the six and six trend, meaning teams who finish with 6 wins or fewer are 25-69 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2002. There are two issues with this trend. One, it’s very rare (it only happened 7 times all last season, going 2-5 ATS). Two, it’s even rarer that a situation will come up in which you can confidently use the trend. The Eagles were 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland last year week 1 (they didn’t cover), but at the time there was no way to know that the Eagles would finish 6-10 or worse.

The Texans, however, sit at 2-7 and would need to go 5-2 or better in order to avoid finishing 6-10 or worse. I think we can safely put them in the six and six trend and they are favored by 7.5 points here. The Raiders covered in New York as 6 point underdogs last week, when the Giants were likely in the six and six situation. I think they have a good chance of doing the same here this week in Houston as 7.5 point underdogs. The Raiders are also in a good spot as road dogs off of a road loss. Teams are 97-57 ATS in this spot since 2008 and teams cover at about a 65% rate historically in this spot, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample.

The only reason this isn’t a bigger play is because I think the Texans are better than their record. They’ve just been killed by turnovers (-13) and return touchdowns (-7 touchdowns). They actually rank 12th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents, while the Raiders rank 28th, thanks largely to a slumping Terrelle Pryor. According to that statistic, this line should be around 8.5. I don’t think that’s accurate though. You can’t blindly follow that. The Texans aren’t the 12th best team in the NFL. Football Outsiders has them 29th in DVOA. I don’t think they’re that bad, but they don’t deserve to be favored by 7.5 points over anyone.

Houston Texans 20 Oakland Raiders 17

Pick against spread: Oakland +7.5

Confidence: Medium

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Houston Texans: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#21)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Texans, Uncategorized

Last week: 17 (-4)

Record: 2-6

The Texans have lost each of the past two games, but the good news is that they might have found their quarterback of the future. Case Keenum has completed 35 of 59 for 621 yards and 4 touchdowns in 2 games. The Texans have been better than their record all along. They are moving the chains at a 76% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents. They’ve just been killed by turnovers (-11), inability to recover fumbles (41.2%), and return touchdowns (-6 touchdowns). Now with Keenum under center, things seem to be better. Again, they haven’t won, but losing by a combined 4 points to the Chiefs and Colts is almost like beating anyone else. The Texans have had a brutal schedule to this point, as 7 of their 8 opponents are currently 4-4 or better. Between the 49ers, Seahawks, Colts, and Chiefs, they’ve faced 4 of the top-10 teams in my Power Rankings. Their schedule gets easier from here on out, starting with the Cardinals this week.

Week 10 Studs

QB Case Keenum

WR Andre Johnson

LT Duane Brown

C Chris Myers

LE JJ Watt

RE Antonio Smith

Week 10 Duds

LG Wade Smith

LOLB Brooks Reed

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Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (2-6) at Arizona Cardinals (4-4)

The Texans have lost each of the past two games, but the good news is that they might have found their quarterback of the future. Case Keenum has completed 35 of 59 for 621 yards and 4 touchdowns in 2 games. The Texans have been better than their record all along. They are moving the chains at a 76% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents. They’ve just been killed by turnovers (-11), inability to recover fumbles (41.2%), and return touchdowns (-6 touchdowns). Now with Keenum under center, things seem to be better. Again, they haven’t won, but losing by a combined 4 points to the Chiefs and Colts is almost like beating anyone else.

The Texans have had a brutal schedule to this point, as 7 of their 8 opponents are currently 4-4 or better. Between the 49ers, Seahawks, Colts, and Chiefs, they’ve faced 4 of the top-10 teams in my Power Rankings. Their schedule gets easier from here on out, starting with the Cardinals here this week. The Cardinals are moving the chains at a 71% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents. If you use rate of moving the chains differential to determine the line, the Texans should actually be favored by a little bit, before you even get into their schedule.

Two uncertainties are why this isn’t a bigger play. One is that Gary Kubiak is out. They might rally together and win one for Kubiak before he returns next week, but they could also look as lost as they did last week without him. Interim Head Coach Wade Phillips has struggled as a Head Coach in the past. On top of that, being the Head Coach could distract him from putting everything into calling plays for the defense. Meanwhile, offensive coordinator Rick Dennison is now the primary offensive play caller.

The second reason is just that, going into his 3rd career start, the Cardinals could have enough tape on Keenum to figure out how to play him and expose why he went undrafted. The Colts did this to a large extent in the 2nd half last week. Keenum loves to throw it deep, but if you blitz him, like the Colts did often in the 2nd half, he doesn’t seem to be accurate enough to take advantage and he might even have trouble reading the blitz. Still, I like the Texans this week.

Houston Texans 20 Arizona Cardinals 17 Upset Pick +125

Pick against spread: Houston +2.5

Confidence: Low

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Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 9 NFL Picks, Colts, Texans, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (5-2) at Houston Texans (2-5)

You could definitely still argue the Texans are underrated and are better than their record. They are moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents. That differential is 12th in the NFL. They have been killed by turnovers (-11), an inability to recover fumbles (37.5%), and a ridiculous amount of return touchdowns allowed (7 allowed, to 1 returned for themselves). Of course, most of that was done with Matt Schaub. Case Keenum is now their quarterback. He played well in his debut in Kansas City, completing 15 of 25 for 271 yards and a touchdown, but that was his first action of his career, so I can’t really say that I’m 100% sold on the former undrafted free agent.

However, there’s also a solid chance that Keenum can keep it up. I believe he deserves this 2nd start, even though I don’t think Schaub’s performance this season was representative of the type of quarterback he is. If that’s the case, the Colts, as good of a team as they are, don’t really deserve to be road favorites here. That’s relevant because road favorites dominate off of a bye, going 45-18 ATS and 22-4 ATS in divisional games. The Texans are also coming off of a bye as well though and the public is all over Indianapolis. I’m not confident in either side, but if I had to, I’d fade the heavy public lean on Indianapolis and go with the possibly underrated Texans.

Houston Texans 24 Indianapolis Colts 23 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: Houston +2

Confidence: None

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Houston Texans: 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#16)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Texans, Uncategorized

Last week: 16 (+0)

Record: 2-5

I was obviously skeptical about Case Keenum, an undrafted 2nd year player who had never played a snap. However, he did some nice things in the 1 point loss in Kansas City, completing 15 of 25 for 271 yards and a touchdown against arguably the best defense in the NFL. He did some bad things as well, particularly his struggles reading the blitz, but that could improve with experience. I’ve defended Matt Schaub for a while and I don’t believe he’s as bad as he looked to start the season, but Keenum has done enough to deserve another look after the bye. I’m skeptical he’s the long-term answer, but at 2-5, it’s worth playing him until he fails.

Week 7 Studs

LE JJ Watt

MLB Brian Cushing

CB Kareem Jackson

Week 7 Duds

QB Case Keenum

RT Derek Newton

C Chris Myers

ROLB Whitney Mercilus

CB Brice McCain

FS Ed Reed

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