Texans

Houston Texans at Detroit Lions: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Lions, Texans

Houston Texans (9-1) at Detroit Lions (5-5)

Every year the Lions have a Thanksgiving home game and every year they struggle. They’ve covered just once in their last 9 Thanksgiving home games. Even last year when they were good and made the playoffs for the first time in a decade, they didn’t play well on Thanksgiving, losing 27-15 against the Green Bay Packers. Most of these losses haven’t even been close: 20-12 in 2002, 41-9 in 2004 (2003 was the year they won), 27-7 in 2005, 27-10 in 2006, 37-26 in 2007, 47-10 in 2008, 34-12 in 2009, 45-24 in 2010, and then of course the game last year.

However, this year they are in a good spot on Thanksgiving. Teams are 96-53 ATS as dogs before being favorites since 2011, including 15-4 ATS as home dogs before being home favorites (the Lions host the Colts next week), though when you go back to 2008 to get a larger sample size, teams are just 21-15 ATS as home dogs before being home favorites. Still, it’s a good spot for the Lions.

We’re also getting some line value with the Lions. The rate of sustaining drives differential method of calculating line value (which Houston leads the league in), says this line should be Houston -4.5, but the yards per play differential method says that Detroit should actually be favored by 2.5 points. Average those out and you get that this line should be around Houston -1. This line was closer to that earlier this week, but heavy action on the Texans has driven it all the way up to Houston -3.5. Given that the odds makers have lost a lot of money over the past 3 weeks and they’re bound to make it up, it’s not a smart idea to take heavy public leans this week, though I guess it’s good to see the line moving in the correct direction. There’s no opposite line movement here.

The Texans are in a good spot too though. Teams are 10-3 ATS off an overtime win as double digit favorites since 1989. It seems that almost suffering a major upset has the same impact as actually suffering a major upset (teams do really well after suffering a major upset as well). It’s a big wakeup call and I expect the Texans to be 100% this week. Remember the Patriots after their overtime win against the Jets (45-7) and even the 49ers last week after their tie with the Rams? The Texans are that caliber of a team. The Lions, meanwhile, are just 7-12 ATS since 2001 after playing the Packers, which is something that could have an impact on this game.

There’s a lot of conflicting stuff going on in this one and it would be a zero unit pick if I did them, but gun to my head, I’d take Houston in this one, though it’d be low in any confidence pools. The reason is that, almost every year one team goes from in the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer. Detroit is at 4-6 right now, while the rest of last year’s playoff teams are all 5-5 or better.

I’m probably going to bet against all 3 of last year’s playoff teams with 5 wins or fewer this week, especially Detroit because they look like the favorite to do so (their remaining schedule is brutal: vs. Houston, vs. Indianapolis, @ Green Bay, @ Arizona, vs. Atlanta, and vs. Chicago). With a 3.5 point spread, it’s conceivable the Lions could cover and not win (about 25% of the time when 3.5 point dogs lose, they still cover), which is why I would have preferred this line at -2, where it was earlier this week, but I don’t think Detroit wins this one, especially considering their history on Thanksgiving. It’s a very small play on Houston. I also like the under as the under is 72-53 on Thursday Night since 1989.

Houston Texans 24 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against spread: Houston -3.5 (-110) 1 unit

Total: Under 50.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Texans

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8) at Houston Texans (8-1)

This week, when the Jacksonville Jaguars go to Houston to play the Texans it will be the latest a 1-win team has played a 1-loss team since 1990, when the Patriots played the Bills, also during week 11, How long ago was that? Well, here’s a clue. The Patriots were the 1-win team and the Bills were the 1-loss team. The Bills won 14-0, finished the season 13-3 and went on to lose their 1st of 4 straight Super Bowls. The Patriots did not win another game, finishing 1-15.

The Texans are 15.5 point favorites here at home. I hate laying this many points in general and it seems that the public agrees with me because, even as miserable as Jacksonville is, there is pretty even action on this one. However, the Jaguars deserve to be dogs of this many. In fact, this line might not even be high enough. The Jaguars are absolutely horrible, especially without Maurice Jones-Drew, who was a massive part of their offense, and with Rashad Jennings averages less than 3 YPC in his absence.

They rank dead last in both yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential. In yards per play differential, they are at -1.1. No one else is worse than -0.9. In rate of sustaining drives they are -14.8%, no one else is worse than -9.5%. They’re worse than even the Chiefs.  I’ve always said, if the Chiefs can avoid losing the turnover battle, they can be competitive. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have avoided losing the turnover battle. They are just -3 on the season, as Blaine Gabbert’s overly conservative style of play is not one that causes him to turn the ball over a ton. They still have not been close to being competitive, as they have a league worst -119 points differential.

Using those two aforementioned statistics, yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential, we can compute real line. The yards per play differential method gives us a real line of Houston -13.5, while the rate of sustaining drives differential method (which Houston leads the league in) gives us a real line of Houston -20.5. If you average them out you get a real line of Houston -17, 1.5 points higher than this line should be.

Besides, this big line seems to have scared people off of taking the favorite. I’ve picked a lot of dogs this week because most of the favorites have heavy public leans and the odds makers still need to make back their money from 2 weeks ago, but some favorites need to cover so I like being able to take a non-heavy publicly backed favorite like Houston, a real rarity this week. There’s still a slight lean on Houston, but the odds makers still win either way because of the juice. I like Houston to get their 5th win of the season by 20 or more and Jacksonville to lose their 6th game of the season by 17 or more, for a small play. Houston is 3-0 ATS as double digit favorites this season, while the rest of the league is 3-7 ATS.

Public lean: Houston (50% range)

Sharps lean: JAX 6 HOU 1

Final update: No change.

Houston Texans 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 10

Pick against spread: Houston -15.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Houston Texans: Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#1)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Texans

Last week: 2 (+1)

Record: 8-1

I guess the Texans move into the #1 spot at Chicago’s expense with their win over them, but you have to wonder what the outcome would have been had Cutler not gotten hurt (he threw an interception on a promising drive immediately after suffering that concussion). It’s a shame that Cutler had to get hurt in what seemed like it would be the most revealing NFL game in terms of how teams stack up thus far this season. Also, that was only the 2nd time since 1991 that two 1-loss teams met this late in the season. It’s disappointing we couldn’t see the two teams as they’ve looked this season personnel wise.

Studs

RB Arian Foster: Rushed for 102 yards (65 after contact) on 29 attempts, 4 broken tackles, caught 5 passes for 15 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts

MLB Bradie James: 5 solo tackles, 4 stops, allowed 4 catches for 14 yards on 5 attempts

CB Kareem Jackson: Allowed 2 catches for 9 yards on 4 attempts, 1 interception, 1 pass deflection

SS Danieal Manning: Allowed 1 catch for 6 yards on 2 attempts, 1 interception, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist

Duds

QB Matt Schaub: 14 of 26 for 95 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions, 1 throw away, 1 hit as thrown, 2 drops, 63.7 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 8 of 27 drop backs (1 sack, 5 of 7, 1 hit as thrown)

RT Derek Newton: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 27 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for -3 yards on 4 attempts

TE Garrett Graham: Caught 3 passes for 15 yards on 4 attempts, 1 drop, allowed 1 quarterback hit on 3 pass block snaps

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Houston Texans at Chicago Bears: Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 10 NFL Picks, Bears, Texans

Houston Texans (7-1) at Chicago Bears (7-1)

I’ve called Chicago the best team in the NFL on several occasions. It’s close, but they are the team I’d least want to play right now. Atlanta may be undefeated, but they’ve had a very easy schedule and aren’t blowing guys out like the Bears are, winning 5 of 8 by a touchdown or less, including games that should have been blowouts like home for Carolina, Oakland, and Dallas.

Chicago hasn’t had the toughest schedule either, but they are blowing teams out. Of their 7 wins, 5 have come by 10 or more (actually all 5 came by 16 or more). Of the two that didn’t, the outcome of only one was ever in down. They held a shutout against Detroit until 30 seconds left in the game when the Lions got a garbage time touchdown to make it 13-7 and a single digit win, but the outcome was never really in doubt. The Falcons have had at least 4 games where that was the case (Carolina, Dallas, Washington, and Oakland all could have ended in losses for Atlanta, I don’t really count Denver, as Atlanta established a big early lead).

Jay Cutler is now 12-1 in his last 13 games, which would be 12 in a row if you exclude their Thursday Night loss in Green Bay. Obviously, you can’t ignore that game, but it was a while ago, it was on short rest, and it was on the road against a tough opponent, so I don’t put much stock into it. They run the ball well. They play incredible defense, even though you can’t expect them to continue to score defensively at this rate the rest of the way because no one ever has.

However, with guys like Julius Peppers, Henry Melton, Lance Briggs, Brian Urlacher, Charles Tillman, Tim Jennings, and Major Wright, they have so many talented defensive players. They’re 2nd in the league in points per game allowed. Offensively, they can run the ball and Jay Cutler is playing well. The Cutler/Marshall combination is deadly. The only issue is the offensive line, but Jay Cutler is historically so hard to sack, so they should be fine.

Of course, with two games against Houston and San Francisco on schedule in the next 2 weeks for the Bears, we’ll definitely have an answer of whether or not this is the Super Bowl favorite pretty soon. In a way, Houston and Chicago have had similar seasons. Both haven’t had the toughest schedule, but both are blowing out the teams they’ve faced. Both have points differentials above +100 (Houston +100, Chicago +113).

Both are defensive oriented teams that can run the ball and both have quarterbacks that may not be on that elite level, but can get it done. They’re not in the Alex Smith game manager category, but they’re not Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers. Both teams have lost to the Packers, though the Bears’ loss to the Packers, as I mentioned earlier, is more excusable. The Texans played them more recently, at home, and lost by more, losing by 18 rather than 13.

The Texans do rank higher in yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential, ranking 5th and 2nd respectively, while Chicago ranks 13th and 4th respectively. As you can imagine, that suggests we are getting a little bit of line value with the Texans. The rate of sustaining drives differential method gives us Chicago -2 and yards per play differential gives us Houston -1 and when you average those out, you get a little bit less than the -1 in favor of Chicago this line currently is at.

That being said, there are 2 things to keep in mind with those numbers. The first is that those numbers treat every game equally. If not for that fluky loss to the Packers week 2, the Bears would rank better than the Texans in at least one of those statistics. Again, I’m not saying to ignore that game completely, but given the circumstances of the game and everything that’s happened since, I don’t think we should put too much stock into that.

The second is that, while neither has had a tough schedule, Chicago does come from the tougher conference. The NFC is 23-13 against the AFC this year. These two teams might be the best two teams in the NFL and they’re almost definitely in the top-3 right now, but I think Chicago is a little bit better right now and that this line should be at least -3 (3 points for home field). At -1, I think we’re getting line value with the Bears.

There aren’t a lot of relevant trends in play here. The Texans are dogs before being favorites, a situation teams are 89-50 ATS in since 2011, including 26-16 ATS before being double digit favorites since 2008 (they host Jacksonville next week). However, when that next game is divisional, like it is for Houston, that record slips to 10-10 ATS since 2002, and 23-27 ATS since 1989. Given, that I’m going to stick with my claim that the Bears are the NFL’s best, take the superior home favorite of less than a field goal, and the Bears to win this game for a significant play.

Public lean: Houston (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Chicago covers)

Sharps lean: HOU 20 CHI 4

Final update: I’m going to disagree with the sharps here, something I’ll do on several occasions this week. I think Chicago is the better team.

Chicago Bears 23 Houston Texans 17

Pick against spread: Chicago -1 (-110) 3 units

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Houston Texans: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#2)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Texans

Last week: 2 (+0)

The Texans didn’t put much effort into their game against the Bills, though they still won by 12, so I’m not going to put much effort into this write up. They’ll win the AFC’s top seed with ease regardless of what happens. They really only play 2 teams with close to their talent level the rest of the way, Chicago (this week) and New England, and even if they lose both, only the banged up Ravens, who they blew out and who they hold the tiebreaker with, have less than 3 losses in the AFC, while Houston only has 1. Those two games will just be bench marks games for them to prove themselves because they got blown out by the Packers at home, the only really tough opponent they had (keep in mind, Denver hadn’t hit their stride yet when they played and I don’t count Baltimore).

Studs

QB Matt Schaub: 19 of 27 for 268 yards and 2 touchdowns, 1 throw away, 105.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured 7 on 29 drop backs (2 sacks, 2 of 5, 1 throw away)

WR Andre Johnson: Caught 8 passes for 118 yards on 10 attempts on 31 pass snaps, 6.4 YAC per catch

TE Owen Daniels: Caught 4 passes for 62 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts on 25 pass snaps, 4.0 YAC per catch

LE JJ Watt: 1 sack and 5 quarterback hurries on 44 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 5 stops

CB Johnathan Joseph: Allowed 5 catches for 48 yards on 9 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 1 stop

P Donnie Jones: 5 punts for 247 yards, 0 inside 20, 4 returns for 37 yards, 42.0 net yards per punt

Duds

C Chris Myers: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback pressure on 31 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 46 yards on 13 attempts

MLB Tim Dobbins: Allowed 8 catches for 97 yards on 9 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

RE Antonio Smith: 2 quarterback hurries on 39 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

K Shayne Graham: 4 kickoff, 0 touchbacks, 51.5 yards per kickoff, 26.5 opponent’s average starting position, 0/1 FG

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Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans: Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 9 NFL Picks, Bills, Texans

Buffalo Bills (3-4) at Houston Texans (6-1)

Despite Houston’s embarrassing loss to the Packers on Sunday Night a few weeks ago, they still rank 2nd in the league in points differential at +88. Among teams that have already had their bye, they rank 1st. Only New England, who is on bye this week and who has played an extra game, is better than them in that statistic.

Of their 6 wins, 4 have come by 20 or more. You can say they got blown out by the only good team they’ve faced (unless you count Denver before they really got going), but the Bills aren’t a good team either. The Jaguars have blown out Miami, Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Baltimore. They can blow out Buffalo too. Buffalo, meanwhile, is -56 on the season, despite their 3-4 record, 4th worst in the NFL. This is because 3 of their 4 losses have come by 20 or more.

Houston is also in a good spot as double digit favorites after a bye. Teams are 14-7 ATS in this spot. Good teams tend to be extra focused off of a bye, though it’s worth noting that double digit favorites are 45-61 ATS before being dogs (Houston plays in Chicago next week). After a bye, those teams are 2-5 since 2002. If we go back to 1989 to get a bigger sample size, they’re 2-8 ATS, which still isn’t much of a sample size. These two trends should cancel out.

Buffalo, however, is in a bad spot as double digit road dogs before being double digit road dogs. They go to New England next week. Teams are 22-41 ATS in this spot since 2002. In general, teams are 57-95 ATS before being double digit dogs since 2008, including 25-37 ATS before being double digit divisional dogs, 42-79 ATS since 2002. Houston may be caught looking forward to Chicago, but Buffalo might be caught looking forward to a big divisional revenge game with New England. That’s even more dangerous for a bad team.

We are also getting line value with Houston, despite the big line. Houston ranks 3rd and 2nd in yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential respectively, while Buffalo ranks 29th and 30th respectively. The rate of yards per play differential method gives us a real line of Houston -12.5 sustaining drives differential method gives us a real line of Houston -17.5. It’s rare to get line value with such a heavy favorite. It’s not a big play at all because I hate laying this many points, especially with a heavy public lean, but this should be a blowout so Houston should be the right side.

Public lean: Houston (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Buffalo covers)

Sharps lean: BUF 9 HOU 4

Final update: No change.

Houston Texans 34 Buffalo Bills 13

Pick against spread: Houston -10.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Houston Texans: Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#2)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Texans

Last week: 2 (+0)

Record: 6-1

I thought about moving Houston back up into the #1 spot, but let’s see how good the Ravens actually are first. If they’re as bad as the Texans made them look, then that’s not as impressive of a win and the Texans’ struggles with the only good NFC team they’ve faced is troubling. The NFC is by far the better conference and while Houston looks to be by far the best team in the AFC, they’ll have to beat an NFC team to win the Super Bowl.

Studs

QB Matt Schaub: 23 of 37 for 256 yards and 2 touchdowns, 3 drops, 2 batted passes, 1 throw away, 99.3 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 15 of 39 drop backs (2 sacks, 7 of 13, 1 touchdown, 1 drop, 1 throw away)

WR Andre Johnson: Caught 9 passes for 86 yards on 9 attempts on 37 pass snaps, 2.1 YAC per catch

FS Glover Quin: 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 batted passes, allowed 3 catches for 19 yards on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 interception

LE JJ Watt: 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 47 pass rush snaps, 2 batted passes, 4 solo tackles, 2 stops

ROLB Connor Barwin: 1 sack, 3 quarterback hits, and 3 quarterback hurries on 39 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 2 solo tackles, 3 stops

ROLB Whitney Mercilus: 1 sack and 4 quarterback hurries on 14 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 1 stop

P Donnie Jones: 5 punts for 240 yards, 2 inside 20, 1 return for 1 yard, 47.8 net yards per punt

Duds

MLB Bradie James: 1 solo tackle, 1 missed tackle, allowed 2 catches for 12 yards on 3 attempts

LOLB Brooks Reed: 1 quarterback hurry on 28 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop

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Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans: Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 7 NFL Picks, Ravens, Texans

Baltimore Ravens (5-1) at Houston Texans (5-1)

This is a very interesting game for a number of reasons. The most obvious is Baltimore’s injuries. This line was at -4 a week ago, but because of Baltimore’s injuries, it’s shifted 3 points, even though Baltimore won and Houston got blown out at home. In spite of that, we still are getting a slight public lean on Houston. Houston is heading into a bye this week and touchdown favorites heading into a bye are 43-20 ATS since 2002, which would appear to make Houston the obvious choice this week. However, it must be questioned, because of the huge line movement, if Houston deserves to be touchdown favorites here. If they don’t, it makes more sense to take the points and fade the public.

In order to determine if Houston deserves to be favored by this much over the Ravens, it must be discussed, what kind of team Baltimore had before injuries, how the injuries will affect their talent level, and what kind of mental state they will be in and other intangibles. The first thing is the simplest. We’ll just look at an old gambler stat: yards per play differential.

Injuries aside, Baltimore ranks 2nd in the league in yards per play differential, actually higher than Houston. An old formula says to take the difference in differentials, divide by .15 and add 3 points either way to get the “real” line. By that formula, Baltimore should actually be favored by a half point here on the road, injuries aside of course.

One issue I noticed with using solely this metric, which a lot of bettors do, is it puts too much value on teams that get a lot of big plays, but can’t sustain drives (or conversely, teams that don’t allow a lot of big plays, but can’t get off the field defensively). Think about it. You pass for 30 yards and then gain no yards on your next 3 plays and have to punt. That’s 7.5 yards per play, which is incredibly impressive, but you didn’t sustain a drive. So I’ve essentially created a new statistic called, rate of sustaining drives, not to replace the traditional metric, but to see if any teams are much better in one than the other.

Basically, how I created it is I took first downs and divided it by first downs + turnovers + punts + failed 4th downs. Basically, what it essentially measures is, on any given 1st and 10, how often does a team get another 1st down or sustain the drive. Turnovers (whether traditional or on downs) and punts are obviously failures to achieve 1st and 10. This measures first downs divided by chances at a first down (first downs + failures to achieve 1st and 10).

You can also do this for the defense, how often they can get the opposing team off the field on any given 1st and 10. The statistic is in the form of a percentage and you can subtract the offensive one from the defensive one to get the differential. For example, Houston is at +10.1%, while Baltimore is at +0.2%. The difference between the percents is 9.9, divide by 1.5 this time (which conveniently works very well with the numbers) and add 3 points either way for home field and you get a line of Houston -9.5.

It’s also worth noting that their yards per play differential metric is heavily based on their rank as the league’s #1 team in yards per play. If you truly believe this is the #1 offense in the league, then the yards per play differential metric should make sense to you alone, but if you don’t believe that, which you probably don’t, then you probably disagree that they were the 2nd best team in the league before injuries.

One thing that both metrics agrees about the Ravens is that they were an average defense team before the injuries. That will obviously decline (more on that later) with the injuries, but it’s worth noting that this team wasn’t playing great football before the injuries either. They’ve won 4 straight, but all by 7 or fewer, including games against the lowly Chiefs and Browns. Teams are 11-16 ATS off 4 straight wins of 7 or fewer, which makes some sense because they tend to be overrated based solely off their record,

Now going onto the injuries, the one that everyone is talking about is Ray Lewis, but that’s not their most important injury. He’s been pretty average, not just by his standards, but by anyone’s standards this year. They’ll miss his on the field leadership most of all, but he’ll still be around as a locker room presence. Lardarius Webb’s injury will hurt the most. One of two starting cornerbacks to not surrender a touchdown last year, Webb has allowed 11 catches for 111 yards on 24 attempts, with 1 interception this year and was by far their best defensive back on a struggling pass defense, which already ranked 22nd in the league in YPA allowed. Their struggling pass rush wasn’t helping things as they rank 27th in pass rush efficiency.

Speaking of the pass rush, guess who is trying to play football this weekend: Terrell Suggs. Yes, less than 6 months after tearing his Achilles, Suggs’ friends and family are expected to be at the game in Houston watching him play, barring a setback. Suggs was activated from the PUP this week and was expected to begin light practice with the hope of returning in 3 weeks, but with Lewis and Webb going down, Suggs obviously felt a sense of urgency. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that the reason their pass rush is struggling this year is because of Suggs’ absence.

However, I question if this is a wise move for Suggs. I love the intensity and competitiveness to want to be out there and helping your team and him playing, or even him not playing but trying to play, could be a huge emotional boost for this team (more on that later). However, guys seem to be coming back from major injuries like torn ACLs or Achilles much faster than normal and they rarely have success.

Just this year, guys like Leon Hall and Rashard Mendenhall came back from injuries that normally take a year in 10 and 9 months respectively. Both struggled before suffering another leg injury, likely caused by overcompensation. Going back a few years, Wes Welker returned in 8 months and while he didn’t get reinjured, he had by far his worst season with the Patriots. Adrian Peterson seems to be the only one who has returned from a major injury, been his old self, and not reinjured himself and he’s a freak of nature. I don’t question that Suggs is as well, but the odds are against him and even Peterson took 9 months. Suggs could have a major emotional impact on this team, but I doubt he’d play well.

That leads perfectly into the emotional aspect. Think about the Ravens’ situation this week. They’re 5-1 and one of only two teams in the conference with a winning record. You’re getting a chance to play the other winning team in your conference, a team you beat twice last year, and people are not only writing you off in this game because of a couple injuries, but predicting that you will miss the playoffs and even if you make it, you won’t advance deep. It’s all over the media. This is a proud veteran team with plenty of bulletin board material. They’re touchdown underdogs here, something that’s only happened once in the John Harbaugh era in Baltimore, a cover and near win in New England in last year’s AFC Championship game. Suggs’ attempt to return has to only get them fired up even more for this game.

One other trend works against Houston. Teams who start 4-0 or better are 19-31 ATS as a favorite off their first loss. I also want to mention one injury that no one is talking about: Brian Cushing, who is also done for the year. He tore his ACL 2 weeks ago against the Jets and in their first game without him, the Texans surrendered 42 points at home to the Packers, but no one seems to care about that. There’ are a lot of uncertainties in this game thanks to injuries, but I’m going to grab the points and fade the public for a small play.

Public lean: Baltimore (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Houston covers.

Sharps lean: HOU 11 BAL 11

Final update: Terrell Suggs will play for the Ravens. That’s a huge emotional lift for a team already playing for respect. I’m adding another unit on Baltimore.

Houston Texans 31 Baltimore Ravens 27

Pick against spread: Baltimore +7 (-110) 2 units

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Houston Texans: Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#2)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Texans

Last week: 1 (-1)

Record: 5-1

Like I said, Atlanta might be better than Houston, but I needed an AFC representative in the top-2. Houston didn’t show up on Sunday Night Football. It happens to everyone. Everyone is allowed 1. You’d think they’d want to make a statement against the Packers on national TV, but with a 3 win lead over everyone in the division regardless, I guess they just didn’t care. They’re still by far the best team in the AFC with New England losing and Baltimore losing two key defensive players.

Houston Texans

Studs

LG Wade Smith: Did not allow a pressure on 43 pass block snaps, run blocked for 17 yards on 4 attempts

RT Derek Newton: Did not allow a pressure on 28 pass block snaps, run blocked for 1 yard on 1 attempt

LE JJ Watt: 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 36 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 7 stops

Duds

CB Johnathan Joseph: Allowed 8 catches for 115 yards and a touchdown on 10 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

FS Glover Quin: Allowed 5 catches for 72 yards and 2 touchdowns on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

CB Brice McCain: Allowed 4 catches for 70 yards on 5 attempts, 1 pass defelction, 2 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle, 1 penalty

RE Antonio Smith: Did not record a pressure on 32 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

ROLB Connor Barwin: 1 quarterback hurry on 42 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

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